USD/JPY fell again on Monday, as traders sold off everything risk related. In fact, the Dow fell over 600 points, and as such – the “risk off” trade came into play. The Bank of Japan has made it well-known that they are considering another intervention, so we aren’t involved in this pair. In fact, it looks like the 77.50 area could be a natural support level. If we had to take a position in this pair – we would perhaps buy. But luckily for us, we don’t have to be involved in this pair at all.
USD/CAD rose yet again on Monday as the oil markets continue to fall. The oil markets control the fate of the CAD, and as the Light Sweet Crude market is sitting right at $80 – we can monitor that to decide how to trade this pair. The $80 level is key for oil, and if it gives way, this pair will rise as the Loonie falls in value. The parity level is just above, and one cannot help but think it should be massively resistive. We are waiting to see if we get to it, and would be very interested in selling the pair at parity.
The EUR/CHF pair fell on Monday as traders ran from anything related to risk in the marketplace. The pair is inversely correlated to the price of gold, which rose $70 during the session, so there is no surprise this pair fell. The trend is down, and we continue to sell this pair with the belief that it will eventually head towards parity.
The USD/CHF pair fell on Monday, but managed to bounce a bit towards the end of the session as the Dollar got a little bit of a bid at the 0.75 level. The pair is in a bearish trend, and the truth is that we will not buy this pair, and as a result we wait to see if we can get a bounce in which to sell. A break to new lows gets us selling as well.
The EUR/USD pair rose on Friday as traders dumped the USD around the markets. The pair stopped short of the 1.4350 area. The pair has been very volatile, and as such hasn’t been one of our favorite pairs to trade. The Euro has an almost uncountable amount of issues behind it, and because of this we won’t buy this pair. If we get a nice sell signal at either 1.4350 or 1.45 – we will not hesitate to do so.
The USD/JPY pair fell on Friday as traders sold the Dollar off in the US session. The pair is decidedly bearish, but let us not forget that the Bank of Japan intervened recently. The pair is dangerous to short, as the BoJ has stated publicly that they are talking to other central banks to help with another intervention. This pair could be bought – but we need a supportive candle to do so.
The GBP/USD pair rose on Friday, as the Non-Farm Payroll numbers came out with an addition of 117,000 jobs in July. The market seems to be stuck in a range between 1.62 and 1.65, and as such, we feel that the market will stay in that range. Because of this, the market being at roughly 1.6380 tells us that we will more than likely get a shorting chance soon. We look to sell weakness near 1.65 on a weak candle.
The USD/CHF pair had a wild day during the Friday session, but eventually ended up fairly unchanged in the end. The pair is a “sell only” pair as far as we are concerned, and as such are waiting to see one of two things: Either a break of the Friday lows in order to get short or a bounce to 0.80 in order to sell. We will not buy this pair as the trend is far too strong to fight.
The EUR/CHF pair rose on Friday, and fell just short of the 1.10 area at the end of the session. The pair is decidedly weak, and the area has produced reactions lately – so we are paying attention to the shorter-time frame charts in order to get a sell signal. The pair certainly wants to fall, but the current volatility in the markets makes the timing important. We look for weakness near 1.10 and sell if we get the signal. We will not buy this pair under any circumstances.
The AUD/USD had a fairly flat day in the markets as the day ended up almost unchanged on Friday. The low on Friday ended up being a fresh lower low, and that tells us that more than likely we will see lower prices in the future. The trading signal would be a break below the low on Friday. However, the highs being broken to the upside could send this pair upward for a bounce. That bounce would more than likely be sold by traders as the new low makes it obvious that the pair wants to fall over the long run.
The USD/CAD pair finished the day fairly flat after rising, falling, and generally chopping the market back and forth. The day in the oil markets was very wild as well, and this would certainly have an effect on the Loonie. The 0.98 resistance area has held again and a break of the Friday lows wouldn’t be a bad entry signal for a sell position. We don’t like buying this pair, so we will only look for this signal.
The NZD/USD pair rose on Friday, and even got high enough to retest the 0.85 mark. This former support turning into resistance is common, and we welcome this sign as it shows that the pair might be ready to fall again. We are looking for a weak candle in the area to sell. If we get a daily close above the area – we will then buy. 0.85 is the key to the future direction of this pair.
The EUR/USD had a fairly wild week as traders sold off, and then bought the Euro as the situation in the EU plays out. The pair does however look a bit like a flag, and as such – we think that there is actually a scenario where this pair goes higher over the long run. However, with all of the headline risk in this pair, we don’t like owning the Euro, and aren’t necessarily found of the Dollar as well. If we break the 1.45 area on a close – this would be the signal to buy. If we break the 1.40 area to the downside, this pair falls.
The USD/JPY pair saw intervention by the Bank of Japan this past week, but quickly gave up a lot of the gains from that action. The pair is certainly bearish, but with the BoJ talking openly to other central banks for a helping hand, one has to think that the eventuality of a coordinated intervention is a major reason to avoid shorting this pair. A long could be taken, but only if you are willing to sit on this trade for a very, very long time.
The GBP/USD pair fell this past week, but then rose again as traders bought the Pound. The weekly candle looks like a hammer, and could signal a move to the upside. However, we want to see a break of the 1.65 in order to go long for a long-term trade. In the meantime, this pair looks like it will consolidate.
The USD/CHF pair fell hard this past week, and has decidedly increased the bearish pressure. The pair has fallen past the 0.76 mark, and we like selling it because of the almost one-way nature of this pair. The pair could bounce however, and if it does – we will be here to sell. A bounce to 0.80 would be very welcome for this. A fresh new low could also trigger more selling as well.
The EUR/CHF pair fell again this past week as the trading world worries about European debt once again. The pair is a safe haven play, and as such gets piled into on the short side every time bad economic news comes out. The EU is a dangerous place to be invested in at the moment, and the relative safety of Switzerland is appealing to traders. The 1.10 – 1.12 area should cause a reaction, and if it doesn’t – the 1.15 will almost certainly do it. We still like selling rallies – and this won’t change anytime soon.
The AUD/USD pair fell extremely hard this past week as traders shed anything remotely related to the “risk on” trade. The pair is currently sitting at the 1.04 – 1.05 support area. The pair would become a sell if we can break below the lows of this past week. The pair will find more support at 1.02, so this trade could be short-lived. If we bounce from here, it would be a nervous move as these kinds of falls generally don’t happen in a vacuum.
The USD/CAD pair had a screamer of a week as the pair shot straight up. It has stalled at the 0.98 level however, and as such – we could see a move down in the near-term. The 0.99 area is even stronger resistance, and we think we may see an attempt to push price up to that level. None-the-less, we think of the USD/CAD pair as a “sell only” pair, and will only sell signs of weakness. Unfortunately, we are not seeing that at the moment.
NZD/USD fell hard this past week, and even managed to break through the 0.85 support line. The pair suddenly doesn’t look as strong as it has, but the real battleground will be at the 0.85 level as we have bounced back towards it. The pair so far is still in an uptrend, but if the 0.85 level holds as resistance – this pair goes down. If we can get a daily close above that level, there is a case to buy.