Are Metals & Miners Starting A New Longer-Term Bullish Trend?

Almost in stealth mode, precious metals have begun to bottom and start a new upside price trend while the US stock market focused on the FOMC meeting a few weeks back and current economic data.  Gold, Silver, and many of the Miner ETFs recently started a moderately strong push higher – almost completely behind the scenes of the hype in the markets regarding IPOs and Bitcoin’s new recent highs.

All the Gold traders know that when Gold starts a new leg higher, it could mean inflation fears are being amplified in the global markets and/or fear is starting to creep back into the markets.  After the recent rally in the US major indexes and as we plow through Q1:2021 earnings, it makes sense that some fear and inflation concerns are starting to take precedence over other concerns.  Will the markets just continue to push higher and higher? Or are the market nearing some type of intermediate-term peak after rallying from November 2020? Only time will tell…

The recent move in Gold and Silver prices suggests traders and investors are starting to act more aggressively to hedge against downside market risks.  My research team and I believe these upside trends may confirm an upside breakout trend in Precious Metals and Miners within 2 to 4+ weeks. You may find some of our earlier research articles related to metals, including our April 15th price targets for Gold, Silver, and Platinum, and our research from March 26th where we explore an impending miners breakout rally.

Custom Metals Index Shows Breakout Starting – 433 Level Is Confirmation

Let’s start by reviewing our Custom Metals Index Weekly chart, below.  The continued downward price slide from the early August 2020 peak has extended more than 8 months. Recent lows also align with the peak levels just before the COVID-19 market collapse (February 2020).  Our research suggests this level will act as a strong support level and may prompt a new bullish price leg in Precious Metals and Miners if we continue to see confirmation of this uptrend in the future. Confirmation for our research team would be a strong close above 433 on our Custom Metals Index chart – closing above the 2021 Yearly highs.

We urge readers to pay close attention to the RED price channels on this Custom Metals Index chart.  These historic price channels may become very relevant in the near future.  A strong upside price breakout in precious metals may prompt a rally that extends aggressively higher – attempting to reenter this current price channel.  If this were to happen, Gold would have to rally above $2165 by July 2021.  This would certainly put Precious Metals into a new longer-term bullish price trend.

Junior Gold Miners Need To Continue Higher To Confirm Breakout/Rally Trend

The following GDXJ chart highlights the base/bottom that has setup in Junior Gold Miners and also highlights the past failed breakout attempts following the CYAN downward sloping trend line.  If this current breakout attempt is valid, we will see a continued upward price trend that confirms the breach of this downward sloping trend line over the next 5 to 15+ days.  We expect this move to happen fairly quickly given how traders have shifted focus recently into hedging against downside price concerns.

Miners and Junior Miners tend to lead Precious Metals prices in volatile price trends.  Junior Miners act as a leader for the Precious Metals sector as investors expect stronger Precious Metals prices to translate into stronger earnings for Junior Miners.  Therefore, when traders perceive Precious Metals prices are bottoming or starting a new uptrend, Junior Miners will likely lead the rally in metals because Junior Miners will directly benefit (bottom-line profits) if metals prices move higher. Ideally, we would like to see a strong close above $53~54 to confirm this upside breakout trend.  This past standout high/resistance level seems key for any continuation of any bullish breakout trends.

14+ Months Into A New Depreciation Cycle – What Next?

As the US stock market continues to push into new all-time highs almost every week and inflation concerns are starting to rise, while global central banks are still acting to support the global market recovery, it seems oddly similar to the 2001~2009 Depreciation Phase which prompted a rally in Gold from $262 to over $1900 (over 700%).  We wrote about this change in global cycle trends in our December 18, 2020 research entitled Metals & Miners Shifting Gears.

The Monthly Gold chart below highlights our research into the broader Appreciation/Depreciation phases of the global markets.  Notice how Gold rallied during the last Depreciation phase (from 2001 to 2011) – even starting to rally higher just before the Depreciation phase started and continuing for nearly a year after it ended.  This happens because global traders/investors start shifting their focus into hedging against risk before the Depreciation Phase actually kicks into gear – just like what is happening right now; on the right edge of this chart.

The price Appreciation Phase ended near the end of 2019 (just before the COVID-19 market collapse). Yet, the US stock market has continued to rally higher and higher over the past 24 months, well into the start of the Depreciation Phase cycle.  This is what we call an “Excess Phase Rally” – where prices continue to trend because of momentum and herd mentality from traders.  As we are seeing right now, certain sectors, technology, and the US major indexes are still pushing to new all-time highs.  This is partially because traders continue to pile into the momentum trades/trends – chasing those profits.

Gold has started to react to the Depreciation cycle in a way that suggests the global markets may eventually transition into a bit of a sideways price trend or come under some type of renewed valuation concerns over the next 3 to 5+ years.  This type of general market concern, as well as the desire to hedge against risk, may prompt a continued rally in Gold to levels above $3000 – as shown on this chart.

Staying ahead of these types of sector trends is going to be key to developing continued success in these markets.  As some sectors fail, others will begin to trend higher.  For those who believe in the power of relative strength, cycles and momentum then the BAN Trader Pro newsletter service does all the work for you in determining what to buy, when to buy it, and how to take profits while minimizing downside risk.

In Part II of this article, we’ll highlight continued opportunities in various metals/mining stocks/ETF as well as continue to highlight our believe that Precious Metals and Miners are starting a broad market transition into the Depreciation Phase cycle.  Are you ready for it?  Are you ready for increased global stock market volatility and trends while Precious Metals may start a new 140% to 250% potential price rally?

Have a great weekend!

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

 

Bitcoin and Ripple’s XRP – Weekly Technical Analysis – April 19th, 2021

Bitcoin

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 6.43% in the week ending 18th April. Reversing a 3.08% gain from the previous week, Bitcoin ended the week at $56,172.0.

A bullish start to the week saw Bitcoin rise to a Tuesday intraweek high and a new swing hi $64,829.0 before hitting reverse.

Coming up against the first major resistance level at $64,631, Bitcoin slid to a Sunday intraweek low $50,500.0.

The sell-off saw Bitcoin fall through the first major support level at $56,644.

Finding support at the 23.6% FIB of $50,473, Bitcoin moved back through to $56,000 levels to reduce the deficit. The first major support level at $56,644 pinned Bitcoin back on Sunday.

5 days in the red that included a 6.27% slide on Sunday delivered the downside for the week.

For the week ahead

Bitcoin would need to move through the $57,167 pivot to support a run the first major resistance level at $63,834.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break back through to $60,000 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and last week’s new swing hi $64,829.0 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended breakout, Bitcoin could test resistance at $70,000 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $71,496.

Failure to move through the $57,167 pivot would bring the 23.6% FIB of $50,473 and the first major support level at $49,505 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$45,000 levels. The second major support level sits at $42,838.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 1.01% to $56,738.0. A mixed start to the week saw Bitcoin fall to an early Monday morning low $55,709.0 before rising to a high $57,200.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

BTCUSD 190421 Daily Chart

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP rose by 4.67% in the week ending 18th April. Following on from a 113.1% surge from the previous week, Ripple’s XRP ended the week at $1.41371.

A bullish start to the week saw Ripple’s XRP rally to a Tuesday intraweek high and a new swing hi $1.96598.

Ripple’s XRP broke through the first major resistance level at $1.6927 before sliding to a Sunday intraweek low $1.1500.

The sell-off saw Ripple’s XRP fall through the 23.6% FIB of $1.5426 and the 38.2% FIB of $1.2807.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.8162, however, Ripple’s XRP found support to end the week at $1.41 levels.

Ripple’s XRP broke back through the 38.2% FIB to end the week in positive territory.

3-days in the green included a 22.32% breakout on Tuesday delivered the upside for the week. An 11.91% slide on Friday and an 8.33% loss on Sunday pared some of the gains, however.

For the week ahead

Ripple’s XRP would need to move through the pivot at $1.5099 and the 23.6% FIB of $1.5426 to bring the first major resistance level at $1.8698 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break back through to $1.80 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and last week’s swing hi $1.96598 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended breakout, Ripple’s XRP could test the second major resistance level at $2.3259.

Failure to move through the pivot at $1.5099 and the 23.6% FIB would bring the first major support level at $1.0538 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off in the week, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$1.00 levels and the 62% FIB of $0.8573. The second major support sits at $0.6939.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up by 2.57% to $1.45001. A mixed start to the week saw Ripple’s XRP fall to an early Monday morning low $1.3600 before rising to a high $1.46.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested at the start of the week.

XRPUSD 190421 Daily Chart

Earnings to Watch Next Week: Coca-Cola, United Airlines, NetFlix and SVB Financial in Focus

Earnings Calendar For The Week Of April 19

Monday (April 19)

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: COCA-COLA, UNITED AIRLINES

COCA-COLA: The world’s largest soft drink manufacturer is expected to report its first-quarter earnings of $0.50 per share, which represents a year-over-year decline of about 2% from $0.51 per share seen in the same quarter a year ago.

The company’s revenue growth to be flat at $8.6 billion. However, in the last two years, on average, Coca-Cola has beaten revenue estimates over 70% and earnings estimates of nearly 90%.

Coca-Cola, which has still not seen a full recovery to its pre-COVID-19 level, may be a decent investment opportunity at the moment. The stock traded around $60 pre-COVID in February 2020 and is 11% below that level. However, the stock has gained 40% since its March lows of $37, following the Fed’s stimulus package and measures announced by other economies. The gradual lifting of lockdowns and successful vaccine rollout has further enthused markets in anticipation of faster economic recovery,” noted analysts at TREFIS.

“However, the stock is unlikely to surpass its pre-Covid level anytime soon, as most of its business depends on demand from people going to entertainment venues, sporting events, etc. These locations are not yet fully operational in most parts of the world. With the recent spike in Covid cases, there are some forms of lockdowns imposed again in certain economies, thus slowing the recovery in demand. Therefore, in the absence of another complete lockdown (as was seen in 2020) and implementation of the vaccination program the stock is likely to rise, but full recovery to February 2020 levels looks unlikely in the near term. KO stock has a potential upside of about 10%.”

UNITED AIRLINES: One of the largest airlines in the world is expected to report a loss for the fifth consecutive time of $6.91 in the first quarter of 2021 on April 19 as the aviation service provider continues to be negatively impacted by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and renewed travel restrictions.

That would represent a year-over-year decline of over 168% from -$2.57 per share seen in the same quarter a year ago. The Chicago-based airline’s revenue would decline about 60% to around $3.3 billion.

“Most of the US airlines will report 1Q21 earnings the week of April 19 and 26. We expect the focus to be on higher fuel costs, the nascent traffic recovery, and improving the balance sheet. Our focus remains on domestic leisure airlines while watching borders reopening to determine recovery for international traffic. We also expect airlines to talk about repairing their balance sheet,” said Helane Becker, equity analyst at Cowen and Company.

TAKE A LOOK AT OUR EARNINGS CALENDAR FOR THE FULL RELEASES FOR THE APRIL 19

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
KO Coca-Cola $0.50
PLD ProLogis $0.37
MTB M&T Bank $3.00
ONB Old National Bancorp $0.41
UAL United Airlines Holdings -$6.98
CCK Crown $1.37
STLD Steel Dynamics $1.84
ZION Zions Bancorporation $1.18
PNFP Pinnacle Financial Partners $1.43
ACC American Campus Communities $0.15
HXL Hexcel -$0.16
WTFC Wintrust Financial $1.40
FNB FNB $0.25
SFBS ServisFirst Bancshares $0.95
HDS HD Supply Holdings $0.39
IBM IBM $1.68
EIDX Eidos Therapeutics Inc -$0.80
LII Lennox International $1.25
CDNS Cadence Design Systems $0.74

 

Tuesday (April 20)

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: NETFLIX

The California-based global internet entertainment service company is expected to report its first-quarter earnings of $2.97 per share, which represents year-over-year growth of over 90% from $1.57 per share seen in the same quarter a year ago. The streaming video pioneer would post revenue growth of over 23% to around $7.15 billion.

“We expect paid net adds to be in line with guide, helped in part by ongoing COVID shutdowns in some markets. Our view is supported by our positive 1Q survey data, which implies NFLX continues to lead living room TV apps. We also view the 45% of survey respondents who share passwords as a LT opp’ty for incremental subs. Reiterate Outperform & $675 Price Target,” noted John Blackledge, equity analyst at Cowen and Company.

TAKE A LOOK AT OUR EARNINGS CALENDAR FOR THE FULL RELEASES FOR THE APRIL 20

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
ABF Associated British Foods £17.31
XRX Xerox $0.29
AN AutoNation $1.85
DOV Dover $1.45
JNJ Johnson & Johnson $2.33
PG Procter & Gamble $1.19
ABT Abbott $1.27
PM Philip Morris International $1.40
LMT Lockheed Martin $6.31
DANOY Danone PK $0.46
TRV Travelers Companies $2.38
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp $0.69
EDU New Oriental Education Tech $0.06
NTRS Northern $1.49
KEY KEY $0.47
OMC Omnicom $1.13
CMA Comerica $1.38
SNV Synovus Financial $0.93
HOG Harley Davidson $0.90
IRDM Iridium Communications -$0.05
MAN ManpowerGroup $0.67
WBS Webster Financial $0.90
GATX GATX Corp $0.89
SFNC Simmons First National $0.52
BMI Badger Meter $0.42
NFLX Netflix $2.97
ISRG Intuitive Surgical $2.64
CSX CSX $0.96
EW Edwards Lifesciences $0.47
WRB W.R. Berkley $0.83
IBKR Interactive Brokers $0.87
THC Tenet Healthcare $0.73
HWC Hancock Whitney Corp $0.97
UCBI United Community Banks $0.64
FULT Fulton Financial $0.35
FMBI First Midwest Bancorp $0.37
EMR Emerson Electric $0.89
PCAR PACCAR $1.29
TER Teradyne $1.04
ENTG Entegris $0.72
CIT CIT $0.98
AVNT Avient Corp $0.71
ELS Equity Lifestyle Properties $0.35
PACW Pacwest Bancorp $0.91
BECN Beacon Roofing Supply $0.08

 

Wednesday (April 21)

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: SIGNATURE BANK

The New York-based full-service commercial bank is expected to report its first-quarter earnings of $2.85 per share, which represents year-over-year growth of over 50% from $1.88 per share seen in the same quarter a year ago. The bank would post revenue growth of about 18% to around $428 million.

SBNY has a unique business model, with its single-point-of-contact bankers, excellent credit culture, and a highly efficient operating structure. Its loan growth continues to outpace peers, given its relatively new focus on growing its PE/VC capital call lending business, while strategically de-emphasizing its NYC MF portfolio,” Ken Zerbe, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“While we do expect losses in SBNY’s CRE portfolio, we believe the market is overly discounting this in the stock price, particularly given its strong underwriting history and conservative lending.”

TAKE A LOOK AT OUR EARNINGS CALENDAR FOR THE FULL RELEASES FOR THE APRIL 21

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
HCSG Healthcare Services $0.27
ERIC Ericsson $0.11
TEL TE Connectivity $1.48
NDAQ Nasdaq Omx $1.72
RCI Rogers Communications USA $0.53
BKR Baker Hughes Co $0.11
HAL Halliburton $0.17
RANJY Randstad Holdings $0.46
SBNY Signature Bank $2.85
FHN First Horizon National $0.35
KNX Knight Transportation $0.70
BOKF BOK Financial $1.92
NEP Nextera Energy Partners $0.33
FCFS FirstCash $0.70
ASML ASML $3.06
NEE NextEra Energy $0.58
ANTM Anthem $6.38
LAD Lithia Motors $4.74
CP Canadian Pacific Railway USA $4.35
CACI Caci International $3.68
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill $4.89
KMI Kinder Morgan $0.24
DFS Discover Financial Services $2.81
WHR Whirlpool $5.04
GGG Graco $0.50
GL Globe Life Inc $1.63
SLM SLM $1.05
REXR Rexford Industrial Realty $0.06
LSTR Landstar System $1.63
FR First Industrial Realty $0.24
RLI RLI $0.66
VMI Valmont Industries $1.92
SLG SL Green Realty -$0.14
UFPI Universal Forest Products $0.87
UMPQ Umpqua $0.44
TCBI Texas Capital Bancshares $1.09
BXS BancorpSouth $0.63
SNBR Scs Group Plc $1.85
CNS Cohen & Steers $0.76
RUSHA Rush Enterprises $0.52
PLXS Plexus $1.25
TBK Triumph Bancorp $0.91
BDN Brandywine Realty $0.02
EFX Equifax $1.53
LRCX Lam Research $6.60
CCI Crown Castle International $0.53
STL Sterling Bancorp $0.46
CHDN Churchill Downs $0.64
NWE Northwestern $1.12
RHI Robert Half International $0.80
SEIC SEI Investments $0.88
CVBF CVB Financial $0.37
LVS Las Vegas Sands -$0.27
PKX Posco $2.22
URI United Rentals $3.08
BZLFY Bunzl plc $0.15
ELISA Elisa Oyj €0.51

 

Thursday (April 22)

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: SVB FINANCIAL

The parent of Silicon Valley Bank is expected to report its first-quarter earnings of $6.47 per share, which represents year-over-year growth of about 153% from $2.55 per share seen in the same quarter a year ago.

In the last four consecutive quarters, on average, the company has delivered an earnings surprise of over 45%. The Santa Clara, California-based company would post revenue growth of over 50% to about $1.24 billion.

SIVB is one of the fastest-growing banks in our coverage universe, with an average of 20%+ loan and deposit growth annually since 2010, with the growth driven by its unique niche of lending to the technology and life sciences industries, including PE and VC capital call lines. While we expect growth to slow, we still see low-teens loan growth (well above peers) for the next several years,” noted Ken Zerbe, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“We are Equal-weight the shares due to valuation. SIVB is trading at just over 20x forward earnings and more than 10 P/E points above its peers (versus a 4-6x multiple premium that we believe it deserves). SIVB‘s earnings are highly sensitive to changes in Fed funds. Rate increases would drive higher EPS.”

TAKE A LOOK AT OUR EARNINGS CALENDAR FOR THE FULL RELEASES FOR THE APRIL 22

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
WSO Watsco $0.88
LUV Southwest Airlines -$1.88
VLO Valero Energy -$1.56
AAL American Airlines -$4.18
HCA HCA $3.31
SAP SAP $1.21
GPC Genuine Parts $1.14
FRME First Merchants $0.78
NUE Nucor $3.07
FCX Freeport-McMoran $0.51
PNR Pentair Ordinary Share $0.61
ALK Alaska Air -$3.68
SASR Sandy Spring Bancorp $1.02
ORI Old Republic International $0.46
DOW Dow Chemical $1.10
DHR Danaher $1.74
WNS Wns Holdings $0.69
FAF First American Financial $1.31
RS Reliance Steel & Aluminum $3.55
T AT&T $0.78
UNP Union Pacific $2.08
TPH Tri Pointe Homes $0.47
TAL TAL International -$0.23
HBAN Huntington Bancshares $0.32
AEP American Electric Power $1.18
BIIB Biogen $5.02
DHI DR Horton $2.18
EWBC East West Bancorp $1.25
BX Blackstone $0.75
DGX Quest Diagnostics $3.74
POOL Pool $1.14
ALLE Allegion $1.02
CLF Cliffs Natural Resources $0.35
TSCO Tractor Supply $0.97
TRN Trinity Industries $0.06
MKTX MarketAxess $2.12
BKU BankUnited $0.74
SNA Snap-On $3.03
IQV IQVIA Holdings Inc $1.85
SON Sonoco Products $0.86
ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line $1.58
SKX Skechers USA $0.49
INDB Independent Bank $1.09
HTH Hilltop $1.01
CE Celanese $2.98
OZK Bank Ozk $0.86
FFBC First Financial Bancorp $0.47
CSL Carlisle Companies $0.68
SAM Boston Beer $2.60
STX Seagate Technology $1.33
VICR Vicor $0.19
WWE World Wrestling Entertainment $0.20
ABCB Ameris Bancorp $1.13
ARI Apollo Commercial Real Est Finance $0.33
GBCI Glacier Bancorp $0.75
SBCF Seacoast Banking Of Florida $0.48
VRSN Verisign $1.34
MAT Mattel -$0.34
WSFS Wsfs Financial $0.86
SNAP Snap -$0.21
SIVB SVB Financial $6.47
ASB Associated Banc $0.43
FE FirstEnergy $0.69
ADS Alliance Data Systems $3.21
CTXS Citrix Systems $1.42
PBCT People’s United Financial $0.34
CAJ Canon $0.27
WST West Pharmaceutical Services $1.42
NVR NVR $61.90
FFIN First Financial Bankshares $0.37
VVV Valvoline Inc $0.37
SAFE 3 Sixty Risk $0.33
ASR Grupo Aeroportuario Del Sureste $23.55
ORAN Orange $0.24
INTC Intel $1.14
KPELY Keppel Corporation $0.14
SAVE Spirit Airlines -$2.55
CS Credit Suisse -$0.40

 

Friday (April 23)

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
SXT Sensient Technologies $0.75
ALV Autoliv $1.43
SLB Schlumberger $0.18
AXP American Express $1.60
KMB Kimberly Clark $1.93
HON Honeywell International $1.80
RF Regions Financial $0.47
GNTX Gentex $0.49
E ENI $0.42

 

Asia-Pacific Currencies Rise after US Benchmark 10-year Treasury Yield Dipped to One-Year Low

A combination of factors helped the Asia-Pacific currencies post strong gains last week, including a drop in U.S. Treasury yields, a weaker U.S. Dollar and solid economic data in the United States, China and Australia.

The U.S. Dollar posted losses against the Japanese Yen, Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollars amid an extended retreat in Treasury yields as investors increasingly bought into the Federal Reserve’s insistence of keeping an accommodative policy stance for a while longer.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield dipped to a one-month low of 1.528% overnight, moving further away from over a one-year of 1.776% reached at the end of last month, even in the face of Thursday’s stronger-than-expected retail sales and employment data.

U.S. retail sales increased 9.8% last month, beating economists’ expectations for a 5.9% rise, while first-time claims for unemployment benefits tumbled last week to the lowest level in more than a year, separate reports showed on Thursday.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar hit a three week high last week as Australia’s Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index climbed 6.2% to 118.8 in April, up from a month earlier. This marked the highest level since August 2010.

Australian employment data also cemented confidence that the economic recovery was in full swing. Data showed job creation again far outstripped expectations in March as unemployment dropped to a one-year low and the total number of employed passed its pre-pandemic peak.

The data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed 70,700 net new jobs were created in March, double forecasts of a 35,000 gain. Unemployment dropped to 5.6%, from 5.8% in February, marking a remarkable recovery from the top of 7.5% hit last July when coronavirus lockdowns tipped the economy into recession.

Last week, the AUD/USD settled at .7734, up 0.0115 or +1.51%.

New Zealand Dollar

New Zealand’s central bank left all its current policy settings unchanged last week, saying monetary stimulus should continue to ensure its inflation and employment targets are met.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) also said it needed time to observe the impact of new housing market measures and a gradual revival in tourism on its recovering economy.

It kept the official cash rate (OCR) at a record low of 0.25%, while also continuing the NZ$100 billion ($70.55 billion) quantitative easing and Funding for Lending Program (FLP) tools, both introduced last year to support a market hit by the COVID-19 pandemic.

In other news, New Zealand’s actual business confidence figures declined in the first quarter of the year although other parameters improved, suggesting a continued recovery in sentiment, a private think tank said on Tuesday.

A net 13% of firms surveyed expected general business conditions to deteriorate compared with 6% in the previous quarter, the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research’s (NZIER) quarterly survey of business opinion (QSBO) showed.

Last week, the NZD/USD settled at .7146, up 0.0111 or +1.57%.

Japanese Yen

In Japan, Preliminary Machine Tool Orders came in at 65.0%, up from 36.7%. Core Machinery Orders, however, fell 8.5%, missing the 2.4% forecast and coming in below the previously reported -4.5%.

Japan’s core machinery orders unexpectedly fell 8.5% in February from the previous month, posting a second straight month of declines, government data showed last week.

The fall in core orders, a highly volatile data series regarded as an indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months, compared with a forecast of 2.8% growth in a Reuters poll of economists, the Cabinet Office data showed.

On a year-on-year basis, core orders, which exclude those for ships and electric utilities, declined 7.1% in February, versus a 2.3% gain expected by economists.

Last week, the USD/JPY settled at 108.793, down 0.866 or -0.79%.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The Week Ahead – Economic Data, Monetary Policy, and Geopolitics in Focus

On the Macro

It’s a quieter week ahead on the economic calendar, with 45 stats in focus in the week ending 23rd April. In the week prior, 72 stats had been in focus.

For the Dollar:

After a quiet 1st half of the week, the weekly jobless claims figures on Thursday will influence.

Expect any increase in claims to test market risk appetite.

On Friday, prelim private sector PMI figures for April wrap things up. The services PMI will have the greatest impact on the markets.

In the week ending 16th April, the Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.66% to 91.556.

For the EUR:

It’s a quiet start to the week on the economic data front.

German wholesale inflation figures for March are due out on Tuesday. Increased market sensitivity to inflation will give the numbers greater attention than usual.

The focus will then shift to prelim April private sector PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone on Friday.

On the monetary policy front, the ECB will also deliver its first monetary policy decision of the quarter on Thursday.

While the ECB is expected to stand pat on interest rates, updates on the bond purchasing program will be the main area of interest.

From the ECB press conference, views on the economic outlook will also need monitoring on the day.

At the end of the week, ECB President Lagarde will be back in action. Following the Thursday press conference, however, there shouldn’t be too many surprises.

The EUR ended the week up by 0.66% to $1.1977.

For the Pound:

It’s a busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

In the first half of the week, employment, wages, and inflation figures will be in focus.

Expect March claimant counts and annual rate of inflation to be the key drivers.

The focus will then shift to March retail sales and prelim private sector PMIs for April on Friday.

Expect the retail sales and services PMI figures to be the key drivers at the end of the week.

On the monetary policy front, BoE Gov. Bailey is scheduled to speak on Wednesday. Expect any views on the economic outlook or monetary policy to influence.

The Pound ended the week up by 0.53% to $1.3779.

For the Loonie:

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

On Wednesday, March inflation figures will be in focus ahead of house price figures on Thursday.

Expect the inflation figures to be the key driver, with focus likely to be on the core inflation figures.

On the monetary policy front, the BoC is also in action on Wednesday. With the BoC expected to stand pat on policy, the monetary policy report will be the main area of focus.

The Loonie ended the week up 0.22% to C$1.2503 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s a quiet week ahead.

Prelim retail sales figures are due out on Wednesday. With consumption key to the economic recovery, expect plenty of sensitivity to the numbers.

On the monetary policy front, the RBA meeting minutes on Tuesday will also influence.

The Aussie Dollar ended the week up by 1.46% to $0.7734.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s a quiet week ahead.

1st quarter inflation figures are due out on Wednesday.

Expect sensitivity to the numbers, with the markets having little else to consider in the week.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week up by 1.55% to $0.7142.

For the Japanese Yen:

It is also a relatively quiet week ahead.

Early in the week, March trade data and finalized industrial production figures for February are due out.

Expect the trade data to have the greatest influence in the week.

At the end of the week, inflation figures for March and private sector PMIs will also draw interest. Expect the private sector PMI and services PMI in particular to have the greatest influence.

The Japanese Yen rose by 0.79% to ¥108.80 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

It’s a particularly quiet week ahead.

There were no material stats to provide the broader financial markets with direction in the week.

While there are no stats to consider, the PBoC is in action on Tuesday. The markets are expecting the PBoC to leave 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates unchanged.

The Chinese Yuan ended the week up by 0.49% to CNY6.5206 against the U.S Dollar.

Geo-Politics

U.S-China and U.S-Russia relations are the main areas of focus in the week ahead.

The markets will also need to monitor any chatter from Iran, however.

Corporate Earnings

There are some big names on the docket in the week ahead…

From the U.S:

IBM (Mon), Coca Cola (Mon), Procter & Gamble (Tue), Netflix (Tue), Johnson & Johnson (Tue), and American Express (Fri).

From the EU:

Nestle (Thurs), Renault (Thurs), Daimler (Fri), and Software AG (Fri).

U.S Mortgage Rates Fall for a Second Consecutive Week

Mortgage rates fell for the second time in 9-weeks in the week ending 15th April. Following a 5-basis points decline from the week prior, 30-year fixed rates fell by 9 basis points to 3.04%.

Compared to this time last year, 30-year fixed rates were down by 27 basis points.

30-year fixed rates were still down by 190 basis points since November 2018’s last peak of 4.94%.

Notably, however, it was just the seventh plus 3% week since July of last year.

Economic Data from the Week

It was quieter first half of the week on the U.S economic calendar.

On the economic data front, March inflation figures were in focus early in the week.

Following the FED’s assurances of unwavering policy support, however, the stats had a muted impact on yields.

In March, the annual core rate of inflation accelerated from 1.3% to 1.6%, rising above a forecasted 1.5%.

Month-on-month, core consumer prices increased by 0.3%, with consumer prices rising by 0.6%.

Freddie Mac Rates

The weekly average rates for new mortgages as of 15th April were quoted by Freddie Mac to be:

  • 30-year fixed rates fell by 9 basis point to 3.04% in the week. This time last year, rates had stood at 3.31%. The average fee held steady at 0.7 points.
  • 15-year fixed declined by 7 basis points to 2.35% in the week. Rates were down by 45 basis points from 2.80% a year ago. The average fee increased from 0.6 points to 0.7 points.
  • 5-year fixed rates slid by 12 basis points to 2.80%. Rates were down by 54 basis points from 3.34% a year ago. The average fee rose from 0.1 point to 0.4 points.

According to Freddie Mac,

  • The economy is improving on the demand side and on the supply side, while a variety of goods and materials remain scarce.
  • As a result of this imbalance, pricing pressures are building and causing inflation to rise.
  • Despite the pause in mortgage rates recently, we expect them to increase modestly for the remainder of the year.

Mortgage Bankers’ Association Rates

For the week ending 9th April, the rates were:

  • Average interest rates for 30-year fixed to conforming loan balances decreased from 3.36% to 3.27%. Points decreased from 0.43 to 0.33 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.
  • Average 30-year fixed mortgage rates backed by FHA decreased from 3.36% to 3.24%. Points rose from 0.36 to 0.40 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.
  • Average 30-year rates for jumbo loan balances decreased from 3.41% to 3.35%. Points decreased from 0.41 to 0.34 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.

Weekly figures released by the Mortgage Bankers Association showed that the Market Composite Index, which is a measure of mortgage loan application volume, fell by 3.7% in the week ending 9th April. In the week prior, the index had fallen by 5.1%.

The Refinance Index declined by 5.0% and was 31% lower than the same week a year ago. The index had also fallen by 5% in the week prior.

In the week ending 9th April, the refinance share of mortgage activity decreased from 60.3% to 59.2%. In the previous week, the share had declined from 60.6% to 60.3%.

According to the MBA,

  • Purchase and refinance applications fell, with most of the pullback coming earlier in the week, when rates were higher.
  • Treasury yields started last week high – close to the prior week’s level at over 1.7% before falling 6 basis points.
  • Refinance activity has now decreased for nine of the past 10-weeks, as rates have gone from 2.92% to 3.27% over the period.
  • Last week’s index level was the lowest in over a year, as mortgage rates continue to trend higher.
  • Many borrowers have either refinanced at lower rates or are unwilling – or unable – to refinance at current rates.
  • A third straight week of declining purchase activity is a sign that rising home prices and tight supply are constraining home sales.
  • Purchase applications were still above last year’s pandemic-impacted low point but fell behind the level of activity seen in the same week in 2019.

For the week ahead

It’s a quiet first half of the week on the U.S economic calendar. There are no material stats from the U.S to influence yields.

The lack of stats will leave geopolitics and COVID-19 in focus early in the week.

Weekly Technical Market Insight: 19th – 23rd April 2021

Charts provided by Trading View

US Dollar Index (Daily Timeframe):

According to the US dollar index, the greenback extended the recent retracement slide by 0.7 percent last week and concluded a touch off session lows.

Technical movement observed an early-week retest at the lower side of the 200-day simple moving average, currently circling 92.21. This followed the prior week’s downside breach of the said SMA, movement typically interpreted as a bearish cue. Chart studies also shine light on nearby Quasimodo support coming in from 91.36, with subsequent selling unmasking additional layers of support at 91.00 and 90.00.

For those who read the previous week’s technical market insight, you may recall the report underlined that trend studies have displayed a downside bias since topping in March 2020, shaped by way of clear lower lows and lower highs (black arrows). Interestingly, the 93.43 31st March peak echoes the early stages of a bearish wave within the current downtrend (dashed black arrow).

RSI movement travelled south of the 50.00 centreline last week, implying momentum remains to the downside for the time being. This unearthed support at 41.24, though a break of the level indicates oversold space could be challenged.

  • While an obvious downtrend is evident, the combination of support at 91.00 and Quasimodo support at 91.36 may underpin a short-term bullish scenario this week. A 91.00 breach, on the other hand, hints at bearish conviction, targeting 90.00 support.

EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Following the three-month retracement slide, demand at 1.1857-1.1352 sparked a resurgence of bullish activity in April, up 2.2 percent MTD. The possibility of fresh 2021 peaks is on the table, followed by a test of ascending resistance (prior support – 1.1641).

Spinning lower, on the other hand, shines the technical spotlight on trendline resistance-turned support, taken from the high 1.6038.

Based on trend studies, the primary uptrend has been underway since price broke the 1.1714 high (Aug 2015) in July 2017.

Daily timeframe:

Largely unchanged reading from previous analysis.

A closer reading of price action on the daily scale reveals EUR/USD voyaged north of the 200-day simple moving average at 1.1900 the week ending April 9th. While interpreted as a bullish signal, buyers and sellers squared off around resistance at 1.1966 at the tail end of last week.

Additional bullish sentiment this week directs the technical radar to another layer of resistance at 1.2058, with further outperformance throwing light on Quasimodo resistance at 1.2278.

Despite the 2021 retracement slide, trend studies show the pair has been trending higher since early 2020.

RSI analysis has the value hovering within touching distance of resistance at 60.30. This follows a trendline resistance breach (taken from the peak 75.97) as well as the formation of a bullish failure swing.

H4 timeframe:

Resistance at 1.1990, sited above daily resistance at 1.1966, capped upside attempts heading into the closing stages of last week. The lack of energy from sellers hints at the possibility of a 1.1990 breach this week, with any bullish bets likely targeting supply at 1.2101-1.2059, which happens to rest on top of daily resistance at 1.2058.

H1 timeframe:

As can be seen from the H1 chart, 1.1956-1.1945 demand proved an effective floor last week, withstanding numerous downside attempts (representing a decision point to break through remaining offers within supply at 1.1956-1.1935).

Trendline support, extended from the low 1.1738, and the 100-period simple moving average at 1.1954, represent additional areas of importance. To the upside, nonetheless, technical analysts will note the 1.20 figure, a widely watched psychological level which may serve as resistance this week. Note that 1.20 resides ten pips above H4 resistance at 1.1990.

Above 1.20 on the H1, resistance is parked at 1.2026 (previous Quasimodo support).

The view from within the RSI oscillator has seen the value weave around the 50.00 centreline since early Thursday. Support to be mindful of rests at 35.45, with resistance tucked inside overbought space at 78.97.

Observed levels:

Long term:

The technical landscape on the bigger picture has buyers at the wheel for now, with monthly price attempting to claw its way out of demand at 1.1857-1.1352. This helps explain the lack of selling around daily resistance at 1.1966.

The above hints at bullish attempts this week, at least until price shakes hands with daily resistance at 1.2058.

Short term:

The bullish vibe stemming from higher timeframes places H4 resistance at 1.1990 in question, along side the 1.20 figure on the H1.

This underscores two possible scenarios:

  • A H1 breakout above 1.20, movement that could interest breakout buyers to H1 resistance at 1.2026, and then daily resistance at 1.2058 as well as H4 supply at 1.2101-1.2059.
  • A test of H1 demand at 1.1956-1.1945 could come about, with buyers likely targeting 1.20, followed by the aforementioned resistances.

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Since the beginning of 2021, AUD/USD has been consolidating just south of trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776 high) and supply from 0.8303-0.8082.

Demand at 0.7029-0.6664 (prior supply) is featured to the downside, should we see a bearish showing over the coming months.

With respect to trend (despite the trendline resistance [1.0582] breach in July 2020), the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains in play until breaking 0.8135 (January high [2018]).

Daily timeframe:

The Australian dollar modestly snapped a three-day winning streak on Friday, within striking distance of resistance at 0.7817. North of the latter, supply at 0.8045-0.7985 is on the radar.

Lower on the curve, the 0.7563 February low has delivered support since March 25th.

Momentum remains above the 50.00 centreline, according to the RSI oscillator. Increased upside momentum this week is likely to elbow things to channel resistance, drawn from the high 80.12.

H4 timeframe:

Largely unchanged reading from previous analysis.

H4 shows price retested 0.7696-0.7715 as demand Thursday and held.

Quasimodo resistance at 0.7800 deserves notice as the next potential ceiling this week, closely stationed by demand-turned supply from 0.7848-0.7867.

H1 timeframe:

Demand at 0.7715-0.7737 served buyers in early trade on Friday, guiding the currency pair to tops around 0.7760, before collapsing back into the jaws of demand. Interestingly, this demand is glued to the upper side of H4 demand at 0.7696-0.7715.

Beneath 0.7715-0.7737, 0.77 is visible, fixed north of demand at 0.7679-0.7695. This is an important area as it was within this base a decision was made to break above 0.77. Should buyers command position off 0.7715-0.7737 this week, the 0.78 level is likely watched as probable resistance (also represents Quasimodo resistance on the H4).

RSI action dipped a toe in waters beneath 50.00 on Friday, threatening possible moves into oversold space, in particular support at 19.40.

Observed levels:

Long term:

The daily timeframe displays scope to approach resistance at 0.7817 this week. Overthrowing this level underscores a possible bullish phase to supply at 0.8045-0.7985.

Short term:

Lower on the curve, H4 is attempting to secure position above demand at 0.7696-0.7715, aided by H1 demand plotted at 0.7715-0.7737. Therefore, a run higher from the aforesaid demand areas this week is on the table, targeting 0.78 on the H1, closely followed by daily resistance at 0.7817.

USD/JPY:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Following January’s bullish engulfing candle and February’s outperformance, March concluded up by 3.9 percent and marginally cut through descending resistance, etched from the high 118.66.

April, currently down 1.7 percent, is retesting the breached descending resistance, movement that may eventually ignite bullish flow. With respect to long-term upside targets, supply at 126.10-122.66 calls for attention.

Daily timeframe:

Largely unchanged from previous analysis.

Bids and offers were pretty much even on Friday, establishing what’s known as a doji indecision candle.

Despite supply at 110.94-110.29 limiting upside since the beginning of April, the monthly timeframe testing descending resistance-turned support questions further selling. Consequently, the collection of lows around 108.36ish (green oval) could limit downside moves.

Structure beyond said lows point to demand at 107.58-106.85, in conjunction with trendline support, etched from the low 102.59.

In terms of trend on the daily scale, we have been decisively higher since early 2021.

RSI action journeyed beneath support at 57.00, and recently dipped a toe under the 50.00 centreline. This implies momentum remains to the downside for the time being.

H4 timeframe:

The Fib cluster drawn between 108.44 and 108.66 (blue), a zone attached to the upper side of demand at 108.31-108.50, stimulated bullish interest on Friday. Sailing through resistance at 108.99 this week may stir additional buying, with the move perhaps underpinning an approach to supply at 109.97-109.72 (houses a 50.0% retracement within at 109.77).

H1 timeframe:

Demand at 108.60-108.71, an area sharing a connection with the H4 Fib cluster at 108.44-108.66, supported price action into the second half of the week.

109 calls for attention to the upside, while any bearish flow could lead to support at 108.39.

Momentum dipped in line with price action on Friday, with the RSI oscillator now facing trendline support, taken from the low 20.94. It’s also worth pointing out the RSI crossed beneath the 50.00 centreline, indicating the possibility of increased strength to the downside.

Observed levels:

Long term:

Monthly action testing descending resistance-turned possible support, alongside daily price testing an area of support around the 108.36 lows, emphasises a potential bullish atmosphere this week.

Short term:

H4 crossing swords with a Fib cluster at 108.44-108.66, fastened to the upper side of H4 demand at 108.31-108.50, reinforces the higher timeframe bullish vibe.

While the above H4 zones may be sufficient to encourage bullish interaction, Friday’s lacklustre buying from H1 demand at 108.60-108.71 suggests the unit could be headed for H1 support at 108.39 before buyers attempt to make a show. Note the aforesaid support resides within the lower range of H4 demand noted above at 108.31-108.50.

GBP/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

The pendulum swung in favour of buyers following December’s 2.5 percent advance, stirring major trendline resistance (2.1161). February subsequently followed through to the upside (1.7 percent) and refreshed 2021 highs at 1.4241, levels not seen since 2018.

Contained within February’s range, however, March snapped a five-month winning streak and formed what candlestick enthusiasts call an inside candle pattern (represents a short-term consolidation with low volatility). A breakout lower would generally be viewed as a bearish signal.

April has offered limited action so far, currently up by 0.4 percent.

Despite the trendline breach, primary trend structure has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until 1.4376 gives way (April high 2018).

Daily timeframe:

Sterling recovered earlier losses against the buck Friday and finished around session tops.

Despite the near-two-month corrective slide, GBP/USD has been trending higher since early 2020.

The technical arrangement on the daily chart remains unchanged. Quasimodo support at 1.3609 is seen, a level associated with a 1.272% Fib expansion at 1.3631, as well as 1.618% and 1.272% Fib extension levels at 1.3614 and 1.3607, respectively. In terms of resistance, April 6th top at 1.3919 is likely considered, closely shadowed by a trendline support-turned resistance, taken from the low 1.1409.

RSI movement finished Friday a touch above the 50.00 centreline, suggesting momentum to the upside could continue to gather traction this week.

H4 timeframe:

Latest developments out of the H4 chart reveal Friday crossed swords with trendline support-turned resistance, taken from the low 1.3670. Note this structure is sheltered just under resistance parked at 1.3852.

A rejection from the said resistances this week throws light back on a possible 1.3680 support test, while scaling above resistance tips the scales in favour of a push to April 6th top at 1.3919 mentioned above on the daily timeframe, with further outperformance to perhaps take aim at H4 Quasimodo resistance at 1.4007.

H1 timeframe:

Friday swept through any offers around 1.38 on Friday and triggered buy-stops. Technicians will note that price formed a bearish outside reversal into the close, alongside RSI action testing a trendline support-turned resistance (taken from the low 27.61).

What’s also technically appealing on the H1 scale this week is the Fib cluster (resistance) around 1.3870.

Observed levels:

Long term:

Although the monthly trendline resistance breach in late 2020 promotes a long-term bullish vibe, traders will likely want to see 1.4376 taken out before committing.

Short term:

Over on the shorter-term charts, buyers face a potential ceiling on the H4 scale at trendline resistance and horizontal resistance at 1.3852. H1 also turns the headlights on a Fib cluster around 1.3870. Given this, between 1.3870 and 1.3840ish, sellers could make an entrance in early trading this week, perhaps zeroing in on the 1.38 figure on the H1.

DISCLAIMER:

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European Equities: A Week in Review – 16/04/21

The Majors

It was yet another bullish week for the European majors in the week ending 16th April, following relatively modest gains from the week prior.

The CAC40 rallied by 1.91%, with the DAX30 and the EuroStoxx600 seeing gains of 1.48% and by 1.20% respectively.

Economic data from the U.S and China continued to support the unfaltering market optimism. Optimism delivered support in spite of COVID-19 vaccine woes and the resurfacing of geopolitical tensions.

In the week, the U.S introduced fresh sanctions on Russia, while U.S – China relations were also back in the spotlight.

Ultimately, however, positive corporate earnings, together with upbeat stats delivered the upside in the week.

The Stats

It was a busy week on the economic data front.

Key stats included Eurozone retail sales, industrial production, and trade data along with economic sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone.

Retail sales rose by more than expected in February, while industrial production hit reverse.

Economic sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone were also a disappointment. Sentiment waned in both Germany and the Eurozone.

For Germany, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index fell from 76.6 to 70.7, while the Eurozone’s declined from 74.0 to 66.3.

At the end of the week, the Eurozone’s trade surplus widened from €11.0bn to €17.7bn, delivering a positive spin at the end of the week.

Throughout the week, inflation figures for member states and the Eurozone were aligned with prelim figures. With the ECB unlikely to shift on policy anytime soon, the pickup in inflationary pressures had a muted impact on the majors.

From the U.S

It was a busier week on the economic data front.

Key stats included inflation, retail sales, and jobless claims figures, which were market risk positive.

A pick in inflationary pressure failed to spook the markets. In spite of the annual core rate of inflation accelerating to 1.6%, the FED’s assurance of unwavering support remained key.

In the week ending 9th April, initial jobless claims decreased from 769k to 576k. Economists had forecast a decline to 700k.

In the month of March, retail sales jumped by 9.8%, reversing a 2.7% decline from February. Core retail sales rose by 8.4%, reversing a 2.5% decline from February.

Economists had forecast retail sales to rise by 5.9% and for core retail sales to increase by 5.0%.

From the manufacturing sector, the Philly FED Manufacturing PMI fell from 51.8 to 50.2 in April. Economists had forecast a sharper decline to 42.0, however.

At the end of the week, stats were also skewed to the positive. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose from 84.9 to 86.5 in April, according to prelim figures.

From Elsewhere

Economic data from China also delivered support in the week. Trade data impressed at the start of the week, with GDP, retail sales, unemployment, and industrial production numbers supporting demand for riskier assets at the end of the week.

The Market Movers

From the DAX, it was a bullish week for the auto sector. Continental rallied by 5.81%, with Daimler and Volkswagen seeing solid gains of 3.56% and 2.87% respectively. BMW ended the week with more modest 0.41% rise.

It was another mixed week for the banking sector, however. Deutsche Bank rose by 1.16%, while Commerzbank fell by 1.80%.

From the CAC, it was a mixed week for the banks. Credit Agricole fell by 0.56%, while BNP Paribas and Soc Gen ending the week with gains of 2.80% and 2.24% respectively.

It was a bullish week for the French auto sector. Renault rose by 0.89%, with Stellantis NV ending the week up by 2.27%.

Air France-KLM slid by 7.78% on news of the planned ban of domestic flights, while Airbus rose by 2.55%.

On the VIX Index

It was a 4th consecutive week in the red for the VIX in the week ending 16th April. Following on from a 3.69% decline from the previous week, the VIX fell by 2.64% to end the week at 16.25.

3-days in the red from 5 delivered the downside in the week for the VIX.

For the week, the NASDAQ ended the week up by 1.09%, with the Dow and the S&P500 gaining by 1.18% and 1.37% respectively.

VIX 170421 Weekly Chart

The Week Ahead

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

The markets will have to wait until Tuesday for German wholesale inflation figures. With inflationary pressures expected to pickup near-term before easing back, the numbers should have limited impact on the majors, however.

The focus will then shift to prelim April private sector PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone.

Expect plenty of interest in the numbers as the markets look for a continued improvement in private sector conditions.

New orders, employment, and optimism will likely be key areas of focus across both the manufacturing and services sectors.

While the stats will influence, the ECB monetary policy decision and press conference will also be key.

Following the ECB’s vow to ramp up bond purchases, the latest numbers along with the ECB’s economic outlook will be key.

From the U.S, the weekly jobless claims on Thursday and prelim private sector PMIs on Friday will also influence.

Away from the economic calendar, corporate earnings, COVID-19 news, and geopolitics will also need monitoring.

On the geopolitical risk front, the U.S along with China, Russia, and Iran remain areas of focus.

The Weekly Wrap – Economic Data, COVID-19 Vaccine News, and Geopolitics Were in Focus

The Stats

It was a busy week on the economic calendar, in the week ending 16th April.

A total of 72 stats were monitored, following 36 stats from the week prior.

Of the 72 stats, 38 came in ahead forecasts, with 21 economic indicators coming up short of forecasts. There were 13 stats that were in line with forecasts in the week.

Looking at the numbers, 36 of the stats reflected an upward trend from previous figures. Of the remaining 36 stats, 23 reflected a deterioration from previous.

For the Greenback, it was a second consecutive weekly loss. In the week ending 16th April, the Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.66% to 91.556. In the previous week, the Dollar had fallen by 0.90% to 92.182.

The Dollar remained under pressure following the dovish FOMC meeting minutes from the week prior. This was in spite of a pickup in inflationary pressures, with FED Chair Powell’s reassurances resonating across the markets.

Out of the U.S

It was a busier week on the economic data front.

Key stats included inflation, retail sales, and jobless claims figures, which were market risk positive.

Early in the week, a pick in inflationary pressure failed to spook the markets. In spite of the annual core rate of inflation accelerating to 1.6%, the FED’s assurance of unwavering support was key.

In the week ending 9th April, initial jobless claims decreased from 769k to 576k. Economists had forecast a decline to 700k.

In the month of March, retail sales jumped by 9.8%, reversing a 2.7% decline from February. Core retail sales rose by 8.4%, reversing a 2.5% decline from February.

Economists had forecast retail sales to rise by 5.9% and for core retail sales to increase by 5.0%.

From the manufacturing sector, the Philly FED Manufacturing PMI fell from 51.8 to 50.2 in April. Economists had forecast a sharper decline to 42.0, however.

At the end of the week, stats were also skewed to the positive. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose from 84.9 to 86.5 in April, according to prelim figures.

In the equity markets, the NASDAQ rose by 1.09%, with the Dow and the S&P500 gaining 1.18% and 1.37% respectively.

Corporate earnings supported the indexes in the week.

Out of the UK

It was a relatively busy week.

Industrial and manufacturing production, trade, and GDP figures were in focus in the week.

It was a mixed set of numbers for the Pound.

While industrial and manufacturing production partially recovered from declines in January, trade data disappointed. Manufacturing production increased by 1.3% in February, after having fallen by 2.3% in January.

The UK’s trade deficit widened from £12.59bn to £16.44bn in February. While exports to the EU picked up, it was with the rest of the world that led to the sharp widening.

In February, the UK’s trade deficit with non-EU countries widened from £4.46bn to £10.73bn.

GDP numbers also disappointed. The economy grew by just 0.4% in February, partially recovering from a 2.2% contraction in January.

In the week, the Pound rose by 0.53% to end the week at $1.3779. In the week prior, the Pound had fallen by 0.90% to $1.3707.

The FTSE100 ended the week up by 1.50%, following a 2.65% loss from the previous week.

Out of the Eurozone

It was a busy week on the economic data front.

Key stats included Eurozone retail sales, industrial production, and trade data along with economic sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone.

It was a mixed set of numbers for the EUR.

Retail sales rose by more than expected in February, while industrial production hit reverse.

Economic sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone disappointed Sentiment waned in both Germany and the Eurozone.

For Germany, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index fell from 76.6 to 70.7, while the Eurozone’s declined from 74.0 to 66.3.

At the end of the week, the Eurozone’s trade surplus widened from €11.0bn to €17.7bn, delivering a positive spin at the end of the week.

Throughout the week, inflation figures for member states and the Eurozone were aligned with prelim figures. The pickup in inflationary pressures delivered EUR support in the week.

For the week, the EUR rose by 0.66% to $1.1977. In the week prior, the EUR had risen by 1.19% to $1.1899.

The CAC40 rallied by 1.91%, with the DAX30 and EuroStoxx600 ending the week with gains of 1.48% and 1.20% respectively.

For the Loonie

It was a quieter week.

Manufacturing sales and wholesale sales figures were in focus in the week.

The stats had a muted impact on the Loonie, however, with market sentiment towards crude oil demand providing support. WTI and Brent ended the week up by 6.42% and by 5.90% respectively.

From the Bank of Canada, the BoC’s business outlook survey reflected a pickup in optimism amongst businesses in Q1. The timing of the survey, however, muted the impact as a pickup in new COVID-19 cases and fresh containment measures were introduced after the survey dates.

In the week ending 16th April, the Loonie rose by 0.22% to C$1.2503. In the week prior, the Loonie had risen by 0.38% to C$1.2530.

Elsewhere

It was a bullish week for the Aussie Dollar and the Kiwi Dollar.

In the week ending 16th April, the Aussie Dollar rose by 1.46% to $0.7734, with the Kiwi Dollar ending the week up by 1.55% to $0.7142.

For the Aussie Dollar

It was a relatively busy week.

Key stats included business and consumer confidence and employment figures.

It was a mixed set of stats for the Aussie Dollar.

Business confidence softened modestly in March, while consumer sentiment improved in April.

The numbers were Aussie Dollar positive ahead of the all-important employment figures late in the week.

In March, Australia’s unemployment rate fell from 5.8% to 5.6% in spite of a rise in the participation rate. Another marked increase in employment led to the fall in the unemployment rate. It was noteworthy, however, that full employment fell in the month.

For the Kiwi Dollar

It was also a relatively busy week.

Early in the week, business confidence and electronic card retail sales were in focus.

The stats were Kiwi Dollar positive. Business confidence improved in the 1st quarter, with retail sales on the rise after a slide in February.

At the end of the week, the business PMI jumped from 53.4 to an all-time high 63.6 in March. A sharp increase in new orders and production drove the PMI to its all-time high.

On the monetary policy front, the RBNZ was also in action. While holding rates steady, the rate statement tested the Kiwi Dollar mid-week. Talk of a willingness to cut the cash rate further amidst a slowdown in the recovery pegged the Kiwi back.

For the Japanese Yen

It was a quiet week.

There were no material stats to provide the Yen with direction.

The lack of stats left core machinery orders in focus mid-week, which took an unexpected slide in February.

While the numbers drew interest, concerns over a fresh spike in new COVID-19 cases, geopolitics, and a weaker Greenback delivered Yen support.

The Japanese Yen rose by 0.79% to ¥108.80 against the U.S Dollar. In the week prior, the Yen had risen by 0.92% to ¥109.67.

Out of China

It was a busy week on the data front.

In the first half of the week trade data impressed, with exports surging by 49.0% and imports by 38.1%.

At the end of the week, GDP and industrial production figures were also in focus.

In the 1st quarter, the China economy expanded by 0.6%, quarter-on-quarter, following 2.6% growth in the 4th quarter. Economists had forecasted growth of 1.5%.

Year-on-year, the economy expanded by 18.3%, versus a forecasted growth of 19.0%. In the 4th quarter, the economy had expanded by 6.5% year-on-year.

Industrial production was up by 14.1% in March, year-on-year, falling short of a forecasted 17.2% rise. In February, industrial production had risen by 35.1%.

Other stats from China included fixed asset investment, unemployment, and retail sales figures.

Fixed asset investment rose by 25.6% year-on-year, coming in ahead of a forecasted 25.0% rise. In February, fixed asset investment had increased by 35.0%.

Retail sales increased by 34.2%, which was better than a forecasted 28%. In February, retail sales had risen by 33.8% year-on-year.

Finally, the unemployment rate fell from 5.5% to 5.3% in March. Economists had forecast for unemployment to hold steady at the end of the quarter.

In the week ending 16th April, the Chinese Yuan rose by 0.49% to CNY6.5206. In the week prior, the Yuan had risen by 0.22% to CNY6.5526.

The CSI300 fell by 1.37%, while the Hang Seng ended the week up by 0.94%.

S&P 500 Weekly Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Reach Towards Higher Levels

The S&P 500 has rallied significantly during the course of the week, as it looks like we are trying to reach towards the 4200 level. The 4200 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that will attract a certain amount of attention. With that being the case, I think that this is a market that will see a lot of noisy behavior, but I do think that given enough time we are probably trying to even break above the 4200 level.

S&P 500 Video 19.04.21

To the downside, it is obvious that the 4000 level is an area that a lot of people will pay attention to, as it is a market that pays close attention to these big figures and it is an area where we have broken out significantly. The 4000 level being broken as resistance should now be a support level. Underneath, the market should reach down to the 3800 as far as support is concerned. If we were to break down below the 3800 level, it is likely that I will be a buyer of puts, not necessarily shorting the market due to the fact that it is so heavily supported by the Federal Reserve and the liquidity measures that continue to be a major aspect.

You can see that the market has gotten a little bit overdone, but I think at this point any pullback will be thought of as a potential buying opportunity due to the fact that we are in such a huge uptrend. Pullbacks will be healthy, and therefore I think they should be encouraged as we have gotten a little overextended.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Natural Gas Weekly Price Forecast – Natural Gas Continues Choppy Behavior

Natural gas markets have rallied significantly during the course of the week to reach towards the $2.68 level, which is an area where we have seen resistance previously. Nonetheless, this is a very bullish candlestick so we could see a little bit more of a rally in the short term, but I do think that given enough time we will see plenty of sellers jumping into this market so that we can push this market to the downside.

NATGAS Video 19.04.21

Keep in mind that there is a massive oversupply of natural gas in general, and that will continue to work against the value of crude oil but given enough time I think that the market will set up an opportunity to start shorting. At this point, the $2.00 level underneath would be a longer-term target, an area where we have seen a massive move to the upside. All things being equal, this is a market that is that you sell for several months, as the temperatures start to climb throughout the year. All things being equal, this is a market that continues to see massive volatility, because the market itself is relatively thin.

At this point in time, I have no interest in buying this market until we get past October, so it is simply a matter of trying to find an opportunity to start shorting. Quite frankly, the higher we go, the more interested I am in doing this. The last couple of weeks have been a little cooler than usual in the United States, but it is certainly the wrong time of year to expect a huge surge in demand to be anything more than temporary.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Weekly Price Forecast – Silver Markets Form Bullish Candle

Silver markets have initially pulled back a bit during the course of the week to test the $25 level only to turn around and show signs of strength yet again. With that being the case, if we can break above the highs of the weekly candlestick, it is very likely that silver will then go looking towards the $28 level. The $28 level of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure but more importantly is an area where we have seen a lot of resistance in the past. Ultimately, if we can break above there, then it is likely that the market goes looking towards the $30 level which has been a bit of a “double top.”

SILVER Video 19.04.21

The hammer from a couple of weeks ago is of course a very bullish sign, so as long as we can stay above there it is likely that we will continue to see buyers jump in and try to push this market to the upside. If we were to break down below that level, then it is very likely that the market would go looking towards the $22 level. The $22 level breaking down would of course open up the possibility of a move down to the $20 level, and possibly even further to the downside. If we do break the $22 level, the bullish run in silver would be all but over. In the short term though, certainly looks as if we have more upward pressure than down and if we get the reopening trade, it is very likely that we would see silver demand pick up.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Crude Oil Weekly Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Have Strong Week

WTI Crude Oil

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market rallied a bit during the course of the week to break above the recent resistance at the $62.50 level. This was in reaction to the International Energy Agency boosting its outlook for demand for the rest of the year, as OPEC did the same. Because of this, it looks like we are trying to reach towards the highs again, closer to the $67.50 level. That being said, it will probably be choppy as most of the “easy money” has already been made to the upside. Pullbacks at this point in time are probably going to be thought of as buying opportunities until we break down below the $57.50 level.

WTI Oil Video 19.04.21

Brent

Brent markets have also broken out to the upside due to the same reasons and look for ways to go looking towards the $70 level. With that being said, the market is likely to continue to see more upward pressure than down, and you will probably have an attempt to get to that big figure. If we can break above the $70 level, then the Brent market would probably go much higher. On the downside, if we were to break down below the $60 level, it is likely that we go looking towards the $54 level next.

I think one thing you can probably count on is a lot of choppy behavior but clearly the most pressure seems to be to the upside, so you should keep that in the back of your mind as you look at volatility on shorter-term charts. The upside is most certainly the favored side at the moment.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Weekly Price Forecast – Gold Markets Have Strong Week

Gold markets have had a very strong week during the last five sessions, as we have reached towards the 50 week EMA. If we can break above the $1800 level, then I believe gold markets will continue to go much higher, perhaps reaching towards the highs again. This would make sense, as we are starting to see people worry about inflation, which of eventually inflation could lift gold, depending on what bonds are doing.

Gold Price Predictions Video 19.04.21

Recently, we have seen bond yields stabilize a bit, so it is not offering a “real rate of return” like that was previously. If that is going to continue to be the case, then gold will get a boost. However, if the yields in the bond markets start to spike again, then we are very likely to see gold suffer as a result. That being said, my trigger price is going to be $1800, where I would be a buyer again. I do not necessarily think that we explode to the upside right away, but more of a grind than anything else. That grind would allow plenty of buying opportunities on dips. As things stand right now, it is not until we break down below the hammer from two weeks previous that I would be a longer-term seller of gold. At that point, I would anticipate a move down to the $1500 level eventually.

Keep in mind that the bond market is going to continue to cause major issues, in both directions so you need to see what is going on in those yields to get a good read on what happens in this market.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Will Rates Rally Further, Pushing Gold Down?

In March, we saw a continuation of the rally in bond yields that started in February. As the chart below shows, the 10-year real interest rates have soared from -1.06 on February 10 to -0.66 percent on March 23.

What is clear from the chart is the strong correlation between the 10-year TIPS yields and the gold prices. As a consequence, the rising bond yields made gold struggle. However, in March, the real interest rates were much more choppy compared to February, when they surged decisively. It may signal a lack of fuel for the further rally, at least for a while.

Now, what is important here is that despite the recent jump in the real yields, they remain extremely low from the historical point of view . And they remain well below zero! This is good news for the gold market, as the yellow metal shines the most when real interest rates are negative.

Of course, the direction of change is also very important, not just the absolute level. So, the question is, will the rates increase further? Well, it’s unfortunately possible, as the improving economic outlook and risk appetite are encouraging investors to buy stocks rather than bonds.

On the other hand, the rising inflation expectations suggest that real yields may struggle to increase further , or they actually may go down. As the chart below shows, the market expectations of inflation in the next 10 years, derived from the Treasuries, have risen from 0.50 at the bottom in March 2020 to 2.31 on March 24, 2021.

Given the increase that has already taken place, the further rise may be limited. But the broad money supply is still rising at an accelerating pace, and investors still don’t believe that the Fed will not hike the federal funds rate to combat rising inflation. They don’t buy the new monetary framework and all the talking about letting inflation overshoot the Fed’s target. Of course, the promise to be irresponsible in the future is not very credible, but investors shouldn’t underestimate the recklessness of central bankers .

You see, we live in an era of weak policymakers unable to make serious commitments, or take unpopular actions, contrary to the needs of Wall Street and the government. For example, Janet Yellen , as a Treasury Secretary, should stress fiscal discipline – instead, she praised the “go big” approach of the new administration. Congress has already passed the $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus and the next additional spending is coming . The legislative proposal of new government expenditures on infrastructure and other priorities (such as climate change and the labor market) could collectively cost more than $3 trillion.

It’s true that the additional government spending and the necessary borrowing could push up the yields (this is an important downward risk for gold). But rising interest rates could hamper the economic recovery and make government financing more costly, further ballooning already mammoth fiscal deficits . So, the Fed will likely have to step in and expand its quantitative easing program or introduce other measures, such as the yield curve control, to curb the long-term interest rates. It will weaken the dollar, thus supporting gold prices.

As a reminder, the Bank of Japan has started to target the yield on 10-year government bonds at around zero percent in 2016, as it decided that the rapid monetary base expansion via large-scale asset purchases was unsustainable. More recently, the European Central Bank has announced in March the acceleration in the pace of its QE in a response to the rally in bond yields.

So, do you really think that the Fed won’t follow suit? That Powell will not help Yellen, his former boss from the Fed? The sharp increase in yields would be inconsistent with the Fed’s dovish policy and the overall debt-driven economic growth. Hence, if the interest rates increase too much, be sure that the Fed will do something, providing a long-awaited support for the price of gold.

What is “too much”? Not so much, at least not in the debt-trap we live in. Some analysts believe that this could occur if nominal 10-year Treasury yields rise over 2 percent, not too far from the current levels, as one can see in the chart below.

Should we be surprised, given the bond bubble created by the central banks? They have kept the bond yields artificially depressed for years, so even a modest normalization – perfectly justified by the expectations of economic recovery and rising inflation – could collapse the house of cards and cause a financial crisis . Hence, although markets have become more optimistic recently, I’m afraid that bears and black swans haven’t said the last word yet. And neither has gold.

Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter . Once you sign up, you’ll also get a 7-day no-obligation trial for all of our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD
Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

USD/JPY Weekly Price Forecast – US Dollar Pulls Back Toward Support

The US dollar has fallen during the course of the week, to break below the ¥109 level. That being said, the market certainly looks as if it is trying to find a bit of support in this area, and if you look at it on the daily timeframe, you can clearly see that there are a lot of buyers and noise in this general vicinity, so it will be interesting to see whether or not this market can keep itself supported in this area. If we get a daily close above the ¥109 level, then I would be a buyer to go looking at the ¥110 level as a potential target, perhaps even the ¥111 level.

USD/JPY Video 19.04.21

If we break down below the ¥108 level, then it is possible that we go much lower, perhaps reaching towards the ¥106 level. That being said, I think that would be an extreme move, and if we were to look at the pair falling like that, it would probably be a major “risk off” type of situation where the yen would not only pick up strength against the US dollar, but probably against most other currencies.

At this point, the market looks as if it is trying to form some type of either top or supportive move, so at this point it is going to be best to allow the market to make up its mind before you get involved. All things being equal, if we were to break above the recent highs, it is likely that we go looking towards the ¥112 level, maybe even the ¥115 level. This is a huge move that we have recently seen, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we get that pullback.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/USD Weekly Price Forecast – Pound Continues to Find Support

The British pound rallied a bit during the course of the week, breaking above the 1.3750 level. Ultimately, the 1.38 level would be an area that a lot of people should pay attention to as well, because if we can break above there then the market is likely to go looking towards the 1.40 level. The 1.40 level has been a massive resistance barrier that has pushed back against buyers multiple times, so if we were to break above there then it is likely that we could go looking towards the 1.42 handle.

GBP/USD Video 19.04.21

The 1.42 level is a significant resistance barrier, and of course is an area that if we can break above it would be a very bullish sign. Breaking above there could open up the possibility of a move to the 1.45 handle. That of course would be a very strong sign and we have been in an uptrend for a while, so it could make a certain amount of sense for that to happen. All things being equal, when you look at this chart, you can see clearly that there is a significant amount of support that extends down to the 1.35 handle. The 1.35 level being broken to the downside could see a lot of selling pressure, perhaps reaching down towards the 1.30 level.

One thing is for sure, it has been very noisy as of late, and I think that will continue to be a major issue. At this point in time, I think we would continue to see a lot of choppy sideways behavior, perhaps being better to trade a back-and-forth type of short-term market.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/JPY Weekly Price Forecast – British Pound Finds Support

The British pound has fallen a bit during the course of the week to break down below the ¥150 level, an area that of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. That is an area that will attract a lot of attention and has offered support for a couple of different attempts at breaking down. That being said, the market is still overextended so I do think that eventually we need to either pull back there or simply kill time in order to get rid of the excess froth in the market.

GBP/JPY Video 19.04.21

If we do break down below the last couple of candlesticks, then it is likely that the British pound drops to the ¥145 level, but at that point I would anticipate seeing a lot of support as well. We are obviously in an uptrend so I do think that it is only a matter of time before we try to go higher, assuming that we can continue a “risk on” attitude. Otherwise, if we see some type of market shock or “risk off” type of move, then it is markedly negative for this market and then I think that what we are looking at is a situation where this is simply going to go back and forth with the idea of how the market is “feeling.”

Ultimately, the ¥153.50 level above being broken could open up the possibility of a move towards the ¥155 level. That of course is the next large, round, psychologically significant figure, and it will almost certainly cause a bit of profit-taking. I think it is a tempting target for the buyers, so will have to wait and see whether or not they can make that happen.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Weekly Price Forecast – The Euro Continues to Reach Towards the 1.20 Handle

The Euro has had a strong week again, as we have crashed into the 1.20 handle. The 1.20 level is important on longer-term charts, and it makes interesting trading as we can continue to see a lot of noise in this general vicinity. If we were to break above the 1.20 handle, then I think the Euro goes looking towards the 1.22 level, possibly even the 1.23 level.

EUR/USD Video 19.04.21

All things been equal, this is a market that has been very noisy as of late and has been a difficult thing to hang onto at times. When you look at the last several months, we have simply chopped around and went nowhere. However, this is unfortunately the way this pair tends to move, so you need to be okay with the idea of being patient with your trade. Ultimately, the last couple of candlesticks have look very bullish, so it certainly looks as if the buyers are trying to take off, but it has a lot of work to get above the 1.20 handle.

If we were to turn around from here, the market is likely to go looking towards the 1.1830 level underneath where the 200 day EMA appears, and just below there we have the 50 week EMA. All things being equal, this is a market that will continue to give people headaches more than anything else. The yield differential between the two economies of course will come into play as well, which favors the US, and that is part of the problem here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD Weekly Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Explodes for the Week

The Australian dollar has rallied significantly during the course of the week to go looking at the 0.7750 level, and glance at the 0.78 level. The 0.78 level is a massive resistance barrier just waiting to happen, mainly because it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area where we have seen a lot of selling. If we were to take that level out on a daily close, then I think we probably go looking towards the 0.80 level above.

AUD/USD Video 19.04.21

Speaking of the 0.80 level, it should be noted that it is a 100 point range of resistance that will almost certainly come into the picture. If that area gets broken above, then the Australian dollar goes much higher, perhaps taking off towards the 0.90 level. Ultimately, that would be a “buy-and-hold” type of scenario.

On the other hand, if we turn around a break down below the 0.76 level, then I think we probably make a bigger move to the downside, perhaps reaching down to the 0.73 level, maybe even as low as the 0.71 level. Ultimately, this is a market that continues to be very noisy and is moving based upon the idea of the reopening trade more than anything else. After all, the Australian dollar is highly sensitive to the idea of commodities, which of course have done quite well but at the same time we also have the idea of US yields rallying, and if they do in fact go higher it does make the dollar a bit more attractive. Because of this, you need to be cognizant of what is going on in the 10 year, as a spike in yields again could send this pair much lower.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.