Big Money Hits the Grocery Outlet

And the multistate grocery store company could rise even more due to strong earnings and increasing prices. But another likely reason is Big Money lifting the stock.

Grocery Outlet Brings in Big Money

So, what’s Big Money? Said simply, that’s when a stock goes up in price alongside chunky volumes. It’s indicative of institutions betting on the shares.

Smart money managers are always looking for the next hot stock. And Grocery Outlet has many fundamental qualities that are attractive.

This sets up well for the stock going forward. But how the shares have been trading points to more upside. As I’ll show you, the Big Money has been consistent in the shares.

You see, fund managers are always looking to bet on the next outlier stocks…the best in class. They spend countless hours sizing up companies, reading reports, speaking to analysts…you name it. When they find a company firing on all cylinders, they pounce in a big way.

That’s why I’ve learned how critical it is to gauge Big Money demand for shares. To show you what I mean, have a look at all the Big Money signals GO has made the last year.

The last few weeks have seen Big Money activity too. Each green bar signals big trading volumes as the stock ramped in price:

Chart, histogram Description automatically generated

Source: www.mapsignals.com

In the last year, the stock attracted 22 Big Money buy signals. Generally speaking, recent green bars could mean more upside is ahead.

Now, let’s check out technical action grabbing my attention:

Outperformance is important for leading stocks.

Grocery Outlet Fundamental Analysis

Next, it’s a good idea to check under the hood. Meaning, I want to make sure the fundamental story is strong too. As you can see, Grocery Outlet has been growing sales at double-digit rates and earnings at triple-digit rates. Take a look:

  • 3-year sales growth rate (+10.9%)
  • 3-year EPS growth rate (+153.4%)

Source: FactSet

Marrying great fundamentals with technically superior stocks is a winning recipe over the long-term.

In fact, GO has become a top-rated stock at my research firm, MAPsignals. That means the stock has buy pressure, strong technicals, and growing fundamentals. We have a ranking process that showcases stocks like this on a weekly basis.

GO has a lot of qualities that are attracting Big Money. It just made the Top 20 report, with its first appearance on 05/17/2022…and gaining 17.2% since. Big Money may have a new gem on its hands. The blue bars below show when Grocery Outlet was a top pick:

Chart, histogram Description automatically generated

Source: www.mapsignals.com

It’s been a top stock in the consumer staples sector according to the MAPsignals process. I wouldn’t be surprised if GO makes additional appearances in the years to come. Let’s tie this all together.

Grocery Outlet Price Prediction

The Grocery Outlet rally could have further to go. Big Money buying in the shares is signaling to take notice. Shares could be positioned for further upside. Given the historical gains in share price and strong fundamentals, this stock could be worth a spot in a diversified portfolio.

Disclosure: the author holds no positions in GO at the time of publication.

Learn more about the MAPsignals process here.

Contact

https://mapsignals.com/contact/

 

Big Money Sheds Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, Should You?

Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) stock has slumped over the last year, losing 39.1%. The discount retailer pulled back recently on an earnings disappointment. But another likely reason is Big Money dropping the stock.

Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Sees Big Money Selling

So, what’s Big Money? Said simply, that’s when a stock goes down in price alongside chunky volumes. It’s indicative of institutions selling the shares.

Smart money managers are always looking for the next hot stock. And Ollie’s Bargain Outlet has many fundamental qualities that are attractive. But sometimes when values decline, money managers look to sell or may be forced to liquidate.

This downward movement creates uncertainty for the stock going forward. And as I’ll show you, the Big Money has been exiting the shares recently.

You see, fund managers are always looking to bet on the next outlier stocks…the best in class. They spend countless hours sizing up companies, reading reports, speaking to analysts…you name it. When they find a company firing on all cylinders, they pounce in a big way. But Big Money sells too, especially when the situation changes.

That’s why I’ve learned how critical it is to gauge Big Money demand for shares. To show you what I mean, have a look at all the Big Money signals OLLI has made the last year.

We’ve seen plenty of Big Money selling activity. Each red bar signals big trading volumes as the stock price dipped:

Chart, histogram Description automatically generated

Source: www.mapsignals.com

In the last year, the stock has attracted 16 Big Money sell signals. Generally speaking, recent red bars could mean more uncertainty is ahead.

Now, let’s check out technical action grabbing my attention:

Vast underperformance is an obvious red flag for leading stocks.

Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Fundamental Analysis

Next, it’s a good idea to check under the hood. Meaning, I want to understand the fundamental story too. As you can see, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet has been growing sales at double-digit rates and has a good future earnings outlook. Take a look:

  • 3-year sales growth rate (+12.9%)
  • 2-year vs. 1-year EPS growth estimate (+48.7%)

Source: FactSet

Marrying great fundamentals with technically superior stocks is a winning recipe over the long-term. But when there is disagreement between the two, it could mean the situation has changed. Or it could be a huge long-term value play on a great stock.

OLLI has been a top-rated stock at my research firm, MAPsignals, for years. That means the stock has had buy pressure, strong technicals, and growing fundamentals. We have a ranking process that showcases stocks like this on a weekly basis. Usually when selling dries up, great stocks rally again.

OLLI has had a lot of qualities that attracted Big Money over the years. Since 2015, it’s made the MAPsignals top list 36 times, with its first appearance on 04/12/2016… and gaining 106.7% since.

Despite the recent decline, long-term investors can consider it a winner. The blue bars below show the times that Ollie’s Bargain Outlet was a top pick since 2015:

Chart, histogram Description automatically generated

Source: www.mapsignals.com

It’s been a top stock in the consumer discretionary sector according to the MAPsignals process. I wouldn’t be surprised if OLLI reappears on this list in the years to come. Let’s tie this all together.

Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Price Prediction

The Ollie’s Bargain Outlet decline makes the stock look oversold. Big Money selling in the shares is signaling to take notice. Given the historical gains in share price and strong fundamentals, this stock could be a huge value play long-term and still worth a spot in a diversified portfolio.

Disclosure: the author holds long positions in OLLI in personal and managed accounts at the time of publication.

Learn more about the MAPsignals process here.

Disclaimer

https://mapsignals.com/contact/

Campbell Soup on the Big Money Menu

And the iconic food and beverage company could rise even more due to strong demand and a healthy dividend. But another likely reason is Big Money lifting the stock.

Big Money Likes Campbell Soup

So, what’s Big Money? Said simply, that’s when a stock goes up in price alongside chunky volumes. It’s indicative of institutions betting on the shares.

Smart money managers are always looking for the next hot stock. And Campbell Soup has many fundamental qualities that are attractive.

This sets up well for the stock going forward. But how the shares have been trading points to more upside. As I’ll show you, the Big Money has been consistent in the shares.

You see, fund managers are always looking to bet on the next outlier stocks…the best in class. They spend countless hours sizing up companies, reading reports, speaking to analysts…you name it. When they find a company firing on all cylinders, they pounce in a big way.

That’s why I’ve learned how critical it is to gauge Big Money demand for shares. To show you what I mean, have a look at all the Big Money signals CPB has made the last year. As sentiment has turned bearish, CPB has been bought up.

The last few weeks have seen Big Money activity too. Each green bar signals big trading volumes as the stock ramped in price:

Source: www.mapsignals.com

In the last year, the stock attracted 10 Big Money buy signals. Generally speaking, recent green bars could mean more upside is ahead.

Now, let’s check out technical action grabbing my attention:

Outperformance is important for leading stocks.

Campbell Soup Fundamental Analysis

Next, it’s a good idea to check under the hood. Meaning, I want to make sure the fundamental story is strong too. As you can see, Campbell Soup has been growing earnings well and has a strong profit margin. Take a look:

  • 3-year EPS growth rate (+63.1%)
  • Profit margin (+11.9%)

Source: FactSet

Marrying great fundamentals with technically superior stocks is a winning recipe over the long-term.

In fact, CPB has been a top-rated stock at my research firm, MAPsignals, for years. That means the stock has buy pressure, strong technicals, and growing fundamentals. We have a ranking process that showcases stocks like this on a weekly basis.

CPB has a lot of qualities that are attracting Big Money, especially when steadiness is in high demand. It’s made the Top 20 report 49 times since 1990, with its first appearance on 04/02/1990…and gaining 718.6% since. The blue bars below show when Campbell Soup was a top pick:

Source: www.mapsignals.com

It’s been a top stock in the consumer staples sector according to the MAPsignals process. I wouldn’t be surprised if CPB makes additional appearances in the years to come. Let’s tie this all together.

Campbell Soup Price Prediction

The Campbell Soup rally could have further to go. Big Money buying in the shares is signaling to take notice. Shares could be positioned for further upside, plus it pays a current dividend of more than 3.2%. Given the historical gains in share price and strong fundamentals, this stock could be worth a spot in a diversified portfolio.

Disclosure: the author holds no positions in CPB at the time of publication.

Learn more about the MAPsignals process here.

Contact

https://mapsignals.com/contact/

Stock Market Is Near Capitulation As Market Rotation Out From This Sector

Many traders and investors speculated about a potential market bottom or at least a meaningful rally could be around the corner as S&P 500 rallied from the oversold condition below 3900 to almost 4100 just within 4 days.

The rally was expected to be short-lived as explained in the video at the bottom of the post using multiple scenarios focusing on the characteristics of the price action in order to differentiate a bull trap from a market bottom. This was further supported by the bearish reversal off the resistance at 4100 on 18 May 2022 for S&P 500.

Capitulation Is Needed For Stock Market Bottom

In order to call for a stock market bottom, capitulation from both institutions and retailers is needed. Before market capitulation happens, leadership in sector, industry group and stock is likely to disappear together with market rotation as the smart money is rotated out from the market.

As the current market price structure is eerily similar to the global financial crisis in 2008 as explained in my video about the stock market crash déjà vu, take a look at how the consumer staple sector ETF XLP behaved before a market capitulation happened in 2008, as shown below.

Since January until September 2008 XLP outperformed S&P 500 as XLP attempted to breakout to a new high on 19 September 2008 (annotated as 1), S&P 500 formed lower high and lower low while tested the support-turned-resistance at 1260.

A few days before the failure of the breakout in XLP, increasing of selling was observed as shown in the volume pane (annotated with a blue arrow), which served as a red flag of the breakout attempt. After a break down below the immediate support (annotated as 2) with increasing volume, XLP struggled to rally up and eventually led to a capitulation together with S&P 500.

The magnitude of the drop after the swing low formed (annotated as 2) was 25% in S&P 500 with steep, wide price spread and climatic movement to the downside. The volume increased sharply on the way down. The characteristics of both the price and the volume pointed to a market capitulation. Subsequently, a meaningful rally off the oversold condition marked the selling climax and bottoming process was unfolding, which lasted for 5 months.

As shown in the chart above in 2022, XLP experienced heavy selloff suggested rotation out from the consumer staple sector. This is significant as traditionally XLP is the defensive sector, which is usually the last to get rotated out by the smart money.

Since late April 2022, XLP experienced increasing of selling as shown in the volume followed by a failure bar broke below the support at 78 (annotated as 1). Continuation of excessive selling was observed after the failure, better known as upthrust after distribution, which is a classical event where smart money unloads their long positions or even initiate short positions.

On 18 May 2022, XLP broke below the support at 76 with the biggest bearish bar (annotated as 2) since the Covid-19’s low with increasing of volume, suggested urgent institutions selling. As the unfolding sequence is similar to what happened in 2008, we could anticipate a potential stock market capitulation might begin soon just like in 2008. This type of analogue comparison could be effective like how I anticipated the selloff started on 9 May 2022 before it happened as explained in the video about the bear market leading indicator.

Anticipate A Bull Trap Using Wyckoff Method

As mentioned earlier, watch the video below to find out how to recognize a bull trap and not to be confused by a market bottom.

 

This is to be used in conjunction with the analogue comparison as mentioned above to better interpret the messages from the market. As presence of demand was observed on last Thursday and Friday, a rally attempt is expected. Should the rally fail to commit above 4100, capitulation of the stock market is likely to start soon. Visit TradePrecise.com to get more stock market insights in email for free.

Best ETFs to Buy Now for June 2022

Investors continue to weather the market storms as volatility has become the norm. Selling is rampant, frightening investors with the uncertainty. Naturally, they’re seeking safety.

But money is flowing into certain sectors, which I’ll show you in a bit. First, let’s talk about Big Money – what it is, how it moves markets, and what it’s been doing lately.

Markets and Big Money in the Last 6 Months

My research firm, MAPsignals, measures Big Money investor activity. That includes institutions, pension funds, big individual investors, and so on. Our research shows Big Money moves markets. And right now, Big Money has been selling stocks and ETFs, driving markets downward:

Chart, histogram Description automatically generated

That’s making major indices dip along with the Big Money Index (BMI), which is a 25-day moving average of large-scale investor buy and sell activity. It’s nosedived recently and could be headed for more of the same:

In the face of uncertainty, investors seek safety. It’s coming in certain sectors, like energy, staples, utilities, and other traditionally defensive areas. Given these conditions, we’ve identified some ETFs we think have great long-term potential: IYE, FCG, FTXG, FXU, and XLP.

Long-term investors should look for ETFs (and their stocks), with great setups. Remember, ETFs are just baskets of stocks, so we need to look at them in detail. MAPsignals specializes in scoring more than 6,500 stocks daily. If I know which stocks compose the ETFs, I can apply stock scores to the ETFs. Then I can rank them all from strongest to weakest.

Let’s get to the five best ETF opportunities for June 2022.

iShares U.S. Energy ETF (IYE) Analysis

The current geopolitical situation has brought oil and gas back to the forefront while driving up prices for energy. As you can see, Big Money has been buying IYE in chunks over the past year, with heavy buying starting in October 2021 and really ramping up this year:

IYE holds several big stocks. One example is Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY), which has 1-year sales growth of 51.5% and a profit margin of 10.7%. Investing legend Warren Buffett recently announced a big stake in OXY too. Here is the one-year Big Money action for OXY:

First Trust Natural Gas ETF (FCG) Analysis

Natural gas is seen by some as a bridge energy source between fossil fuels and cleaner sources like wind, partly because of its ample supply. As global energy markets continue to shift, natural gas is becoming more popular. Big Money has been buying too, which always helps:

One great stock FCG holds is Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA). This independent oil and gas company has seen big three-year sales growth of 41.5% and sports a profit margin of 31.6%. Earnings have been strong too, growing 106% over three years. The Big Money is jumping in on CTRA:

First Trust NASDAQ Food & Beverage ETF (FTXG) Analysis

We can always count on food demand, right? It’s biological. Well, in all seriousness, global demand for food as well as the products and services used to create it is strong and made stronger by geopolitical issues. That’s reflected in FTXG. While there have been some dips, the trend on this one points up:

A fantastic stock within FTXG is Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM), the food processor and producer of agricultural commodities. It’s rocketed since the new year, which isn’t surprising given its growing sales (one-year sales growth of 32.4%) and three-year EPS growth of 19.1%. ADM has been drawing in lots of Big Money:

First Trust Utilities AlphaDEX Fund (FXU) Analysis

When investors seek safety, that often means utilities that pay dividends. As always with ETFs, fundamental strength within underlying assets is a high priority. We see that with FXU, which has peaks and valleys along the way, but an overall positive trajectory:

One rock-solid dividend stock within this ETF is NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG), an energy producer, seller, and distributor. Big Money has been all over it recently, with nine buy signals in the last month alone. NRG grew sales in one year by 200% and EPS by 314% over three years. It pays a nearly 3.1% current dividend and has jumped in price significantly since a year ago:

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) Analysis

It’s rare to get excited about consumer staples, but it’s justified right now. XLP holds huge household names and has seen Big Money lifting its price recently. It’s clear that in the past year, buying at the low points has worked out:

One great stock in XLP is Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST), the bulk warehouse retailer. COST is fundamentally strong – it has one-year sales growth of 17.5% and a three-year EPS growth rate of 16.7%. But it’s down 24% this year so far. However, it wouldn’t surprise me to see this one rise again (it’s had 48 Top 20 Big Money buy signals since 1991):

Here’s a Big Money recap:

  • When Big Money buying heats up, stocks and ETFs tend to rise
  • Deep selling on great quality can be a phenomenal opportunity
  • Repeated buying usually means outsized gains

Bottom Line and Explanatory Video

 

IYE, FCG, FTXG, FXU, and XLP are my top ETFs for June 2022. They cover mostly defensive sectors where money is flowing in as investors seek shelter. These picks can rise higher, in my opinion, largely because they each hold great stocks. With markets rocky, safety is at a premium, and these ETFs are proving to be havens right now.

To learn more about MAPsignals’ Big Money process please visit: www.mapsignals.com

Disclosure: the author holds no positions in IYE, FCG, FTXG, FXU, XLP, OXY, CTRA, ADM, or NRG in at the time of publication, but holds long positions in COST in managed accounts.

Contact:

https://mapsignals.com/contact/

Hormel Attracts Big Money

And the food giant could rise even more due to ever-present demand and a current dividend of nearly 2.0%. But another likely reason is Big Money lifting the stock.

Big Money Eats Up Hormel

So, what’s Big Money? Said simply, that’s when a stock goes up in price alongside chunky volumes. It’s indicative of institutions betting on the shares.

Smart money managers are always looking for the next hot stock. And Hormel has many fundamental qualities that are attractive.

This sets up well for the stock going forward. But how the shares have been trading points to more upside. As I’ll show you, the Big Money has been consistent in the shares.

You see, fund managers are always looking to bet on the next outlier stocks…the best in class. They spend countless hours sizing up companies, reading reports, speaking to analysts…you name it. When they find a company firing on all cylinders, they pounce in a big way.

That’s why I’ve learned how critical it is to gauge Big Money demand for shares. To show you what I mean, have a look at all the Big Money signals HRL has made the last year.

The last few weeks have seen Big Money activity too. Each green bar signals big trading volumes as the stock ramped in price:

Source: www.mapsignals.com

In the last year, the stock attracted 15 Big Money buy signals. Generally speaking, recent green bars could mean more upside is ahead.

Now, let’s check out technical action grabbing my attention:

Outperformance is important for leading stocks.

Hormel Fundamental Analysis

Next, it’s a good idea to check under the hood. Meaning, I want to make sure the fundamental story is strong too. As you can see, Hormel is a huge, profitable company with growing sales. Take a look:

  • Market capitalization ($29.1 billion)
  • Profit margin (+8.0%)
  • 1-year sales growth rate (+18.5%)

Source: FactSet

Marrying great fundamentals with technically superior stocks is a winning recipe over the long-term.

In fact, HRL has been a top-rated stock at my research firm, MAPsignals, for years. That means the stock has buy pressure, strong technicals, and growing fundamentals. We have a ranking process that showcases stocks like this on a weekly basis.

HRL has a lot of qualities that are attracting Big Money. It’s made the Top 20 report 18 times since 2010, with its first appearance on 05/23/2011…and gaining 337.5% since. The blue bars below show when Hormel was a top pick:

Source: www.mapsignals.com

It’s been a top stock in the consumer staples sector according to the MAPsignals process. I wouldn’t be surprised if HRL makes additional appearances in the years to come. Let’s tie this all together.

Hormel Price Prediction

The Hormel rally could have further to go. Big Money buying in the shares is signaling to take notice. Shares could be positioned for further upside, plus it pays a current dividend of nearly 2.0%. Given the historical gains in share price and strong fundamentals, this stock could be worth a spot in a diversified portfolio.

Disclosure: the author holds no positions in HRL at the time of publication.

Learn more about the MAPsignals process here.

Contact

https://mapsignals.com/contact/

 

Big Money Likes Service Corporation International

And the provider of professional services for funerals and cremations could rise even more due to strong sales and earnings. But another likely reason is Big Money lifting the stock.

Service Corporation International Attracts Big Money

So, what’s Big Money? Said simply, that’s when a stock goes up in price alongside chunky volumes. It’s indicative of institutions betting on the shares.

Smart money managers are always looking for the next hot stock. And Service Corporation International has many fundamental qualities that are attractive.

This sets up well for the stock going forward. But how the shares have been trading points to more upside. As I’ll show you, the Big Money has been consistent in the shares.

You see, fund managers are always looking to bet on the next outlier stocks…the best in class. They spend countless hours sizing up companies, reading reports, speaking to analysts…you name it. When they find a company firing on all cylinders, they pounce in a big way.

That’s why I’ve learned how critical it is to gauge Big Money demand for shares. To show you what I mean, have a look at all the Big Money signals SCI has made the last year.

The last few weeks have seen Big Money activity, too. Each green bar signals big trading volumes as the stock ramped in price:

Source: www.mapsignals.com

In the last year, the stock attracted 21 Big Money buy signals. Generally speaking, recent green bars could mean more upside is ahead.

Now, let’s check out technical action grabbing my attention:

Outperformance is important for leading stocks.

Service Corporation International Fundamental Analysis

Next, it’s a good idea to check under the hood. Meaning, I want to make sure the fundamental story is strong too. As you can see, Service Corporation International has been growing sales and earnings at double-digit rates. Take a look:

  • 1-year sales growth rate (+18.0%)
  • 3-year EPS growth rate (+30.3%)

Source: FactSet

Marrying great fundamentals with technically superior stocks is a winning recipe over the long-term.

In fact, SCI has been a top-rated stock at my research firm, MAPsignals, for years. That means the stock has buy pressure, strong technicals, and growing fundamentals. We have a ranking process that showcases stocks like this on a weekly basis.

SCI has a lot of qualities that are attracting Big Money. It’s made the Top 20 report seven times since 2014, with its first appearance on 03/30/2015…and gaining 174.4% since. The blue bar below shows when Service Corporation International was a top pick:

Source: www.mapsignals.com

It’s been a top stock in the consumer staples sector according to the MAPsignals process. I wouldn’t be surprised if SCI makes additional appearances in the years to come. Let’s tie this all together.

Service Corporation International Price Prediction

The Service Corporation International rally could have further to go. Big Money buying in the shares is signaling to take notice. Shares could be positioned for further upside, plus it pays a 1.4% current dividend. Given the historical gains in share price and strong fundamentals, this stock could be worth a spot in a diversified portfolio.

Disclosure: the author holds no positions in SCI at the time of publication.

Learn more about the MAPsignals process here.

Contact

https://mapsignals.com/contact/

Sell High-Beta Stocks. Buy Low-Volatility Stocks. It’s The Business Cycle

Summary

A sound investment strategy takes advantage of the economic environment.

The economic environment drives the relative performance of investments.

The business cycle tells which stocks should be in your portfolio: high-beta vs low volatility.

The main forces driving the business cycle

There are three main types of economic indicators: leading, coincident, and lagging. The lagging indicators are the most important ones for investors because they determine the length of the business cycle and the severity of the economic correction needed to bring them down so the economy can expand again.

Inflation, interest rates, and labor costs are the most important lagging indicators. A rise in inflation reduces consumers’ purchasing power. The rise in interest rates makes purchases of anything less affordable – housing and autos in particular. Rising labor costs hinder profitability. Consumers react to the rise in inflation and interest rates by cutting first the purchase of big-ticket items. This is also the time consumer confidence of the University of Michigan declines sharply.

The slowdown in housing and auto sales are the first developments reflecting the economy is downshifting. Such slowdowns are reflected in equity prices. Coincident indicators such as employment and sales eventually also begin to sputter.

The investment opportunity in equities takes place when the leading indicators – those which were the first to signal the slowdown – are going to rise again.

One of the most important tenets of the business cycle is the slowdown will continue until the causes that created the slowdown are brought under control.

The main causes of the slowdown are the rise in the main lagging indicators: inflation and interest rates. The slowdown will continue as consumers reduce spending until their purchasing power restored again. This happens when inflation and interest rates decline. This is also the time when labor costs decrease, improving business profitability.

As retail sales increase because of rising consumers’ purchasing power, the other coincident indicators also rise: employment, production, and income. These developments will reinforce themselves and the positive loop will continue until the economy overheats.

This is the time when the lagging indicators raise their ugly heads, and the business cycle starts all over again.

Where are we now?

The lagging indicators are rising. Consumer prices keep moving higher – up more than 8%. Interest rates – short-term and long-term – have reached new highs for this business cycle. The two-year Treasury yield soared from 0.2% to 2.6% in the last 12 months. The stock market, an important leading indicator, shows no gains since June 2021 as of this writing. Auto sales and housing have been weakening after several months of rising inflation and interest rates.

Consumers cut spending on big-ticket items first when income after inflation declines as it is happening now (see graphs of buying conditions from University of Michigan survey below). In other words, an increase in the lagging indicators (inflation and interest rates) lead a peak in the leading indicator consumers’ buying conditions (see above chart).

The business cycle is just past Point 7 (see first chart above). The next trends will be slower growth in the coincident indicators. Retail sales and income after inflation are already contracting. Production and employment are still strong. They will have to weaken to reflect cuts in production to reduce inventories.

Inflation and interest rates will decline following more weakness in the coincident indicators (sales, income, production, and employment). In the meantime, growth in business activity will continue to decline until inflation and interest rates drop enough to increase consumers’ purchasing power. It will be a long and drawn-out process.

Economic growth drives sectors’ performance

The environment faced by the financial markets is slower economic growth. This is an important trend because the sectors outperforming the market when the business cycle declines, reflecting slower economic growth, are the non-cyclical sectors (XLP, XLU, XLV, XLRE) ( see chart below, energy being the exception).

The chart shows the percent change over the last 200 days. During a period of stronger growth cyclical stocks (XLI, IYT, XLF, XLE, XLB, XME) outperform the market. The strong performance of the non-cyclical sectors confirms the stock market is past its phase of fast growth.

High-beta and low volatility stocks respond to economic forces

High-beta (ETF: SPHB) and low-volatility stocks (ETF: SPLV) perform in different ways depending on the trend of the business cycle as shown on the following chart.

The above chart shows two sets of graphs. The upper panel represents the graph of the ratio SPHB/SPLV. The busines cycle indicator computed in real-time from market data and reviewed in each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio Strategy and Management is in the lower panel.

High-beta stocks (SPHB) outperform low-volatility stocks (SPLV) (the ratio in the uppere panel rises) when the business cycle rises, reflecting stronger economic growth due to declining or stable inflation and interest rates.

However, low-volatility stocks (SPLV) outperform high-beta stocks (the ratio in the upper panel declines) when the business declines because of rising inflation and interest rates – as it has been happening since late 2021.

Key takeaways

  • The leading indicators will continue to decline reflecting rising inflation and interest rates.
  • During such time low volatility stocks (SPLV) will continue to outperform high-beta stocks (SPHB).
  • The leading indicators, such as stock prices, autos, housing, consumer sentiment of the University of Michigan, will bottom and rise again following a decline in inflation and interest rates.
  • The decline in inflation and interest rates will be preceded by declines in the coincident indicators (sales and income after inflation, production, and employment).
  • This will be the time when high-beta stocks (SPHB) start outperforming low-volatility stocks (SPLV).

Stock Market Crash Déjà Vu? Follow This Market Rotation Sequence

Since the topping formation manifested in January 2022, S&P 500 has dropped 14% off the peak with increasing volatility both to the upside and to the downside. This is mainly due to the unfolding of the Wyckoff distribution pattern (as explained in the video before the selloff happened in the past 2 weeks) and the stock market rotation where the smart money flows from the growth theme and the technology sector to the defensive sectors like consumer staple (XLP), utilities (XLU), health care (XLV) and the commodities including the energy sector (XLE).

Stock Market Rotation During Wyckoff Distribution

The outperformance in the energy sector since January 2022 is especially obvious as shown in the comparison chart between S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES) and the energy sector (XLE) below:

Since January 2022, S&P 500 experienced a selloff as a sign of weakness followed by a weak rally while the energy sector (XLE) rallied up to all time high (highlighted in green).

Since 21 April 2022 XLE had a biggest down wave (highlighted in orange), which is considered as a Wyckoff change of character to stop the uptrend into a consolidation or even a reversal. This is a significant event because this kind of the stock market rotation is similar to what happened during Wyckoff distribution in 2008 before the market crash. Refer to the chart below:

In late 2007 S&P 500 formed a topping formation followed by a break down as a sign of weakness. In January till May 2008, S&P 500 had a weak rally up barely tested the axis line where the previous-support-turned-resistance while the energy sector (XLE) created a new high (as highlighted in green).

The next selloff in XLE (highlighted in orange) signaled a breakout failure, which is also a Wyckoff change of character that led to a reversal. This is similar to what’s currently unfolding in XLE as shown in the first chart. The market rotation sequence during the Wyckoff distribution phase is almost the same in 2022 and 2008.

Wyckoff Distribution Pattern in S&P 500: 2022 vs 2008

Let’s compare the price structure of S&P 500 in 2022 and 2008 to find out the similarity of the Wyckoff distribution pattern, as shown below.

From the top pane, S&P 500 had a Wyckoff distribution formation formed by the end of 2021 followed by a break down (highlighted in red) in January 2022 as a sign of weakness (SOW1). The stock market breadth at that time also confirmed the bearish bias as I discussed in the video.

The subsequent price movements including the automatic rally (AR), potential upthrust after distribution (UTAD) and the sign of weakness (SOW2), which is still unfolding, are similar to 2008’s as shown in the bottom pane.

Now the S&P 500 is testing the last line of the support at 4100. Should 2008’s price structure be a decent analogue for reference, a last point of supply (LPSY) as a weak rally (highlighted in orange) can be expected before the market collapse.

S&P 500 Price Prediction When Market Crash

Check out the 2 bearish scenarios that lead to a market crash with the price target and what you can expect for S&P 500 to violate this crash (at least for the time being) in the video below.

Although there was presence of demand shown up last week in S&P 500, the bull needs to prove itskself to rally away from the vulnerable area and to at least commit above 4300 to avoid the bearish scenario to crash below 4100. Visit TradePrecise.com to get more stock market insights in email for free.

Big Money Fills Up on Simply Good Foods

And the specialty foods maker could rise even more due to solid financial performance and upcoming share repurchases. But another likely reason is Big Money lifting the stock.

Simply Good Foods Attracts Big Money

So, what’s Big Money? Said simply, that’s when a stock goes up in price alongside chunky volumes. It’s indicative of institutions betting on the shares.

Smart money managers are always looking for the next hot stock. And Simply Good Foods has many fundamental qualities that are attractive.

This sets up well for the stock going forward. But how the shares have been trading points to more upside. As I’ll show you, the Big Money has been consistent in the shares.

You see, fund managers are always looking to bet on the next outlier stocks…the best in class. They spend countless hours sizing up companies, reading reports, speaking to analysts…you name it. When they find a company firing on all cylinders, they pounce in a big way.

That’s why I’ve learned how critical it is to gauge Big Money demand for shares. To show you what I mean, have a look at all the Big Money signals SMPL has made the last year.

The last few weeks have seen Big Money activity, too. Each green bar signals big trading volumes as the stock ramped in price:

Source: www.mapsignals.com

In the last year, the stock attracted 11 Big Money buy signals. Generally speaking, recent green bars could mean more upside is ahead.

Now, let’s check out technical action grabbing my attention:

Outperformance is important for leading stocks.

Simply Good Foods Fundamental Analysis

Next, it’s a good idea to check under the hood. Meaning, I want to make sure the fundamental story is strong too. As you can see, Simply Good Foods has been growing sales at double-digit rates and is projected to grow earnings similarly. Take a look:

  • 3-year sales growth rate (+33.5%)
  • 2-year vs. 1-year EPS growth estimate (+13.4%)

Source: FactSet

Marrying great fundamentals with technically superior stocks is a winning recipe over the long-term.

In fact, SMPL has been a top-rated stock at my research firm, MAPsignals. That means the stock has buy pressure, strong technicals, and growing fundamentals. We have a ranking process that showcases stocks like this on a weekly basis.

SMPL has a lot of qualities that are attracting Big Money. It’s made this list three times since it began trading in 2017, with its first appearance on 01/05/2021…and gaining 38.8% since. Big Money may have a gem on its hands. The blue bars below show the times that Simply Good Foods was a top pick:

Source: www.mapsignals.com

It’s been a top stock in the consumer staples sector according to the MAPsignals process. I wouldn’t be surprised if SMPL makes additional appearances in the years to come. Let’s tie this all together.

Simply Good Foods Price Prediction

The Simply Good Foods rally could have further to go. Big Money buying in the shares is signaling to take notice. Shares could be positioned for further upside. Given the historical gains in share price and strong fundamentals, this stock could be worth a spot in a diversified portfolio.

Disclosure: the author holds no positions in SMPL at the time of publication.

Learn more about the MAPsignals process here.

Contact

https://mapsignals.com/contact/

Best Dividend Stocks to Buy Now for May 2022

See, dividend payers are typically big, stable companies with rock-solid balance sheets. They not only can rise in value, but also provide stable cash flows. They’re holding their own right now, helping buoy markets overall. Let me show you what I mean.

Markets and Big Money in the Last Six Months

My research firm, MAPsignals, measures Big Money investor activity. That includes institutions, pension funds, big individual investors, and so on. Our research shows Big Money moves markets.

In fact, we created the Big Money Index (BMI), which is a 25-day moving average of Big Money buy and sell activity. It tends to be a leading indicator of market movement. Here is the BMI over the last six months laid over SPY:

The BMI is trending up lately because there are sections of strength within the market. Today, I want to focus on four of them – energy, staples, real estate, and health care. Unsurprisingly, they also happen to be big dividend-paying sectors.

Energy stocks have been on fire due to the geopolitical situation right now. Investors have often leaned on them in uncertain times because they pay dividends.

Staples too have been seeing inflows. Recession fears are setting in and investors want the certainty of companies selling what people need.

Chart, histogram

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The real estate sector saw three HUGE buying days recently as people rush to holding tangible assets with strong cash flows.

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Lastly, health care companies pay big, growing dividends, which is music to investors’ ears right now. Historically, it’s been a defensive area for investors, and it’s performing well now.

Chart

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Not only do these sectors pay dividends, but the cream-of-the-crop dividend payers in these sectors increase their dividends regularly. That means investors get a raise, which is always welcome. So, those four strong sectors are featured in the top five dividend-paying stocks we like: XOM (energy), MO (staples), EXR (real estate), JNJ (health care), and ABBV (health care).

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Analysis

Up first is Exxon Mobil, which is an oil and gas producing giant that has consistently paid a big dividend (currently it’s at 4.0%).

Even though great stocks can be volatile, like Exxon Mobil the last few years, these companies are worthy of attention. Check out XOM:

  • 1-month performance (11.8%)
  • Historical Big Money signals

Just to show you what our Big Money signals look like, have a look at the buy signals XOM has made the last year in the chart below. Green bars show it was likely being bought by a Big Money player according to MAPsignals.

When you see a lot of them, as XOM has this year, I call it the stairway to heaven:

Source: www.MAPsignals.com

But, what about fundamentals? As you can see, XOM’s sales are strong, and its debt is manageable:

  • 1-year sales growth rate (+57.4%)
  • Debt/equity ratio (+31.5%)

Altria Group, Inc. (MO) Analysis

Next up is Altria Group, which is a tobacco company that has paid dividends for decades. Its current dividend yield is 6.5%.

Check out these technicals for MO:

  • 1-month performance (+7.1%)
  • Recent Big Money signals

Let’s look long-term. These are the top buy signals for Altria Group since 1990. The Big Money has bought time and again:

Source: www.MAPsignals.com

Let’s dive deeper. As you can see, Altria Group has been a stabile giant:

  • 1-year sales growth rate (+1.3%)
  • 3-year sales growth rate (+2.5%)
  • Profit margin (+11.7%)
  • Forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.4x earnings

Extra Space Storage Inc. (EXR) Analysis

Another dividend-paying name we like is Extra Space Storage, which owns and operates self-storage facilities throughout the U.S. and Puerto Rico. It pays a nearly 2.3% dividend right now.

Strong dividend payers usually have Big Money buying the shares, and EXR has that. It’s also jumped in price recently:

  • 1-month performance (+13.1%)
  • Historical Big Money signals

Below are the top Big Money signals EXR has made since 2010. That’s the JUICE!

Source: www.MAPsignals.com

Now let’s look under the hood. Extra Space Storage’s sales growth and profits are impressive. I expect more in the coming years:

  • 1-year sales growth rate (+12.0%)
  • Profit margin (+50.5%)

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Analysis

Number four on the list is Johnson & Johnson, which is a health care behemoth and one of the biggest companies in the world. It just posted great earnings and raised its dividend by 6% (it currently yields almost 2.5%).

Here are the technicals important to me:

  • Year-to-date performance (+7.0%)
  • Historical Big Money signals

Below are the top Big Money signals for JNJ since 2006:

Source: www.MAPsignals.com

Let’s examine a bit more. Johnson & Johnson has been growing nicely and it should continue:

  • 1-year sales growth rate (+13.5%)
  • 2-year vs. 1-year EPS growth estimate (+5.5%)

AbbVie, Inc. (ABBV) Analysis

Our last dividend payer is AbbVie, which is a pharmaceutical company with many different focus areas. It makes a lot of money, which means it can pay big dividends (currently it yields more than 3.6%).

Check out these technicals:

  • Year-to-date performance (+15.0%)
  • Historical Big Money signals

ABBV is a high-quality stock with a high-quality dividend. That’s why it’s made the Top 20 report 14 times since 2012:

Source: www.MAPsignals.com

Now look under the hood. The company has had solid sales and earnings growth:

  • 3-year sales growth rate (+20.6%)
  • 3-year EPS growth rate (+44.3%)

Bottom Line and Explanatory Video

 

XOM, MO, EXR, JNJ, & ABBV represent top dividend-paying stocks to buy now for May 2022. Strong fundamentals, big and growing dividends, and historical Big Money buy signals make these stocks worthy of extra attention.

To learn more about MAPsignals’ Big Money process please visit: www.mapsignals.com

Disclosure: the author holds long positions in MO, EXR, & ABBV in personal and managed accounts, and no positions in XOM or JNJ.

Contact:

https://mapsignals.com/contact/

 

Bank Stocks Will Keep Underperforming. It’s The Business Cycle.

Summary

Bank stocks are sensitive to interest rates.

Interest rates are sensitive to the strength of the business cycle.

The attractiveness of bank stocks depends on the trend of the business cycle. Not interest rates.

My article of January 2021 concluded:

“…… rising yields at the beginning of a business cycle is good news for bank stocks. Yields rising to levels damaging the economy and causing the business cycle to decline is bad news for the banking sector.”

To recognize what is happening now it is useful to review how the banking sector responds to changes in the business cycle.

Chart, pie chart Description automatically generated

Source: The Peter Dag Portfolio Strategy and Management

Business Cycle and Its Phases

The business cycle goes through four distinctive phases. The trends pointing to the end of Phase 4 are:

  • Commodity and inflation are declining.
  • Sales growth is lower than the pace of inventory accumulation.
  • Income after inflation starts rising.
  • Consumer confidence rebounds as consumers respond favorably to the decline of inflation, interest rates, and to the rise of real income.

These favorable developments create the conditions for the business cycle to move into Phase 1. Sales increase because of consumers’ improved financial conditions. Business is forced to boost production to build up inventories to respond to the rising demand. Business will have to hire new people, buy raw materials, and increase borrowing to improve and possibly expand capacity.

These activities place a floor on commodities and interest rates. As the positive feedback continues, improved sales feed into rising inventories, rising employment, and increased borrowing.

This expansion benefits the banking sector, of course, because it provides the liquidity needed to fuel the positive loop thus creating even more growth. This is the time when bank stocks outperform the market.

There is a point, however, when the high level of production places upward pressure on commodities, interest rates, and inflation. The business cycle enters Phase 2, reflecting an even stronger economy.

But rising commodities, interest rates, and inflation eventually have a negative impact on the finances of consumers as it is happening now. Consumer confidence peaks and then declines. Demand for goods slows down.

Business recognizes inventories are now rising too rapidly due to the slower demand and are having a negative impact on earnings. Production is curtailed. Purchases of raw materials are reduced. Hiring is cut. Improvements and expansions of capacity are delayed resulting in lower borrowing, an unwelcome development for banks.

What Phase Are We in Now?

Chart, line chart, histogram Description automatically generated

Source: StockCharts.com, The Peter Dag Portfolio Strategy and Management

The above chart shows the business cycle indicator updated in real time from market data and reviewed in each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio Strategy and Management. It shows the previous two cycles (2011-2014 and 2014-2020) and the current one started in 2020.

This indicator and data about growth in heavy truck sales, in income after inflation, in retail sales after inflation, and the action of the defensive market sectors (see below) confirm the business cycle is now declining, reflecting slower economic growth. The business cycle is now in Phase 3.

The slowdown process will continue until the causes that produced it are brought under control and consumers recognizes their finances are improving. This new environment will be characterized by the decline in inflation and interest rates. This process will take place in Phase 4, the most painful phase for consumers and the financial markets.

During Phase 3 and Phase 4 the sectors outperforming the markets are utilities (XLU), healthcare (XLV), staples (XLP), REITs, and long duration Treasury bonds.

The performance of the various sectors keeps repeating as the business cycle swings from periods of stronger to weaker growth.

Source: StockCharts.com, The Peter Dag Portfolio Strategy and Management

The sectors outperforming the market over the last two hundred days (except for energy) have been the four sectors mentioned above. Their performance confirms the business cycle is declining, reflecting a weakening economy.

The financial sector, and banks in particular, is a cyclical sector outperforming the market during periods of strengthening business cycle.

Chart, line chart, histogram Description automatically generated

Source: StockCharts.com, The Peter Dag Portfolio Strategy and Management

The above chart shows the ratio of Invesco KBWB bank ETF and the S&P 500 ETF (ratio KBWB/SPY). The ratio rises when bank stocks outperform the market. The ratio declines when bank stocks underperform the market.

The lower panel of the above chart shows the business cycle indicator computed in real-time as reviewed in each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio Strategy and Management.

The chart shows bank stocks outperform the market (the ratio rises) when the business cycle rises, reflecting a strengthening economy. The ratio declines, reflecting the underperformance of the bank stocks, when the business cycle indicator declines in response to a weakening economy. Chart, histogram Description automatically generated

Source: StockCharts.com, The Peter Dag Portfolio Strategy and Management

The above chart shows regional banks stocks (ETF: KRE) respond like the major center banks stocks to the changes of the business cycle. They outperform the market when the business cycle indicator rises and underperform the market when the business cycle indicator declines. Chart, histogram Description automatically generated

Source: StockCharts.com, The Peter Dag Portfolio Strategy and Management

Even large and well managed banks like JP Morgan (JPM) are not immune to the changes in the business cycle as shown in the above chart. The stock of JP Morgan outperforms the market when the business cycle rises and underperforms the market when the business cycle declines.

Key Takeaways

  1. Bank stocks respond to changes of the business cycle and not of interest rates.
  2. Bank stocks outperform the market when the business cycle rises, reflecting a strengthening economy (Phase 1 and Phase 2 of the business cycle).
  3. There is a point when rising interest rates and inflation cause the business cycle to decline. This is the time when bank stocks start underperforming (Phase 3 and Phase 4 of the business cycle).

Big Money Eats Up Hostess Brands

And the maker of Twinkies, Ding Dongs, and other snacks could rise even more due to strong demand and innovations like a “green” bakery. But another likely reason is Big Money lifting the stock.

Hostess Brands Draws in Big Money

So, what’s Big Money? Said simply, that’s when a stock goes up in price alongside chunky volumes. It’s indicative of institutions betting on the shares.

Smart money managers are always looking for the next hot stock. And Hostess Brands has many fundamental qualities that are attractive.

This sets up well for the stock going forward. But how the shares have been trading points to more upside. As I’ll show you, the Big Money has been consistent in the shares.

You see, fund managers are always looking to bet on the next outlier stocks…the best in class. They spend countless hours sizing up companies, reading reports, speaking to analysts…you name it. When they find a company firing on all cylinders, they pounce in a big way.

That’s why I’ve learned how critical it is to gauge Big Money demand for shares. To show you what I mean, have a look at all the Big Money signals TWNK has made the last year.

The last few weeks have seen Big Money activity, too. Each green bar signals big trading volumes as the stock ramped in price:

Source: www.mapsignals.com

In the last year, the stock attracted 26 Big Money buy signals. Generally speaking, recent green bars could mean more upside is ahead.

Now, let’s check out technical action grabbing my attention:

Outperformance is important for leading stocks.

Hostess Brands Fundamental Analysis

Next, it’s a good idea to check under the hood. Meaning, I want to make sure the fundamental story is strong too. As you can see, Hostess Brands has been growing sales and earnings at double-digit rates. Take a look:

  • 1-year sales growth rate (+11.6%)
  • 3-year EPS growth rate (+18.8%)

Source: FactSet

Marrying great fundamentals with technically superior stocks is a winning recipe over the long-term.

In fact, TWNK has been a top-rated stock at my research firm, MAPsignals, for years. That means the stock has buy pressure, strong technicals, and growing fundamentals. We have a ranking process that showcases stocks like this on a weekly basis.

TWNK has a lot of qualities that are attracting Big Money. It’s made this list four times since the brand remerged in 2015, with its first appearance on 01/05/2021…and gaining 55.1% since. The blue bars below show the times that Hostess Brands was a top pick:

Source: www.mapsignals.com

It’s been a top stock in the consumer staples sector according to the MAPsignals process. I wouldn’t be surprised if TWNK makes additional appearances in the years to come. Let’s tie this all together.

Hostess Brands Price Prediction

The Hostess Brands rally could have further to go. Big Money buying in the shares is signaling to take notice. Shares could be positioned for further upside. Given the historical gains in share price and strong fundamentals, this stock could be worth a spot in a diversified portfolio.

Disclosure: the author holds no positions in TWNK at the time of publication.

Learn more about the MAPsignals process here.

Contact

https://mapsignals.com/contact/

 

Big Money Feeds, Fuels Darling Ingredients

And the company that turns food waste into feed and fuel products could rise even more due to strong earnings and business partnerships. But another likely reason is Big Money lifting the stock.

Darling Ingredients Attracts Big Money

So, what’s Big Money? Said simply, that’s when a stock goes up in price alongside chunky volumes. It’s indicative of institutions betting on the shares.

Smart money managers are always looking for the next hot stock. And Darling Ingredients has many fundamental qualities that are attractive.

This sets up well for the stock going forward. But how the shares have been trading points to more upside. As I’ll show you, the Big Money has been consistent in the shares.

You see, fund managers are always looking to bet on the next outlier stocks…the best in class. They spend countless hours sizing up companies, reading reports, speaking to analysts…you name it. When they find a company firing on all cylinders, they pounce in a big way.

That’s why I’ve learned how critical it is to gauge Big Money demand for shares. To show you what I mean, have a look at all the Big Money signals DAR has made the last four years.

The last few months have seen Big Money activity, too. Each green bar signals big trading volumes as the stock ramped in price:

Source: www.mapsignals.com

In the last year, the stock attracted eight Big Money buy signals. Generally speaking, recent green bars could mean more upside is ahead.

Now, let’s check out technical action grabbing my attention:

  • 1-month outperformance vs. Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (+5.4% vs. XLP)

Outperformance is important for leading stocks.

Darling Ingredients Fundamental Analysis

Next, it’s a good idea to check under the hood. Meaning, I want to make sure the fundamental story is strong too. As you can see, Darling Ingredients has been growing sales at double-digit rates and earnings at triple-digit rates! Take a look:

  • 3-year sales growth rate (+12.6%)
  • 3-year EPS growth rate (+108.0%)

Source: FactSet

Marrying great fundamentals with technically superior stocks is a winning recipe over the long-term.

In fact, DAR has been a top-rated stock at my research firm, MAPsignals, for years. That means the stock has buy pressure, strong technicals, and growing fundamentals. We have a ranking process that showcases stocks like this on a weekly basis.

DAR has a lot of qualities that are attracting Big Money. It’s made this list 10 times since 2008, with its first appearance on 02/11/2008…and gaining 493.7% since. The blue bars below show the times that Darling Ingredients was a top pick:

Source: www.mapsignals.com

It’s been a top stock in the consumer staples sector according to the MAPsignals process. I wouldn’t be surprised if DAR makes additional appearances in the years to come. Let’s tie this all together.

Darling Ingredients Price Prediction

The Darling Ingredients rally could have further to go. Big Money buying in the shares is signaling to take notice. Shares could be positioned for further upside. Given the historical gains in share price and strong fundamentals, this stock could be worth a spot in a diversified portfolio.

Disclosure: the author holds no positions in DAR at the time of publication.

Learn more about the MAPsignals process here.

Contact

https://mapsignals.com/contact/

Sector Rotation Strategy Reveals The Outperforming Sectors For Trend Trading

The stock market has experienced tremendous volatility since late November 2021 and the 4 major indices such as S&P 500 (ES), Dow Jones (YM), Nasdaq 100 (NQ) and Russell 2000 (RTY) has corrected more than 10% from the peak to the trough in February 2022. Since then, the rally in March 2022 is considered as a Wyckoff change of character, which changed the short-term market environment from downtrend to uptrend.

Due to the high volatility (both to the downside and to the upside) as shown up in the market, picking the right sectors followed by buying the outperforming stocks are the keys to be profitable in stock trading.

Smart money has rotated out from the previous leaderships and progressively into different sectors as a result of the on-going sector rotation. Let’s start with a top-down approach to determine the outperforming sectors below.

Top 4 Outperforming Sectors – XLE, XLP, XLU, XLV

There are two elements to focus on in order to determine the outperforming sectors when analyzing the sector charts using the ETFs, which are the relative strength and the price structure. Refer to the chart of XLE (Energy), XLP (Consumer Staples), XLU (Utilities) and XLV (Health Care) below:

XLE has been in a clear uptrend with higher high and higher low since January 2022 while the relative strength (below the chart and annotated in orange) trending up. S&P 500 is used as a benchmark in the relative strength indicator. Rising in the relative strength means XLE outperforms S&P 500 since January 2022.

XLP, XLU and XLV shows outperformance in the relative strength index since December 2021 while their price just hit a higher high recently.

These 4 sectors – energy, consumer staples, utilities and health care show strong price action with their prices break the previous high while outperforming S&P 500.

Sectors Comparison – XLB, XLRE, XLI, XLF

Next let’s compare XLB (Materials), XLRE (Real Estate), XLI (Industrial) and XLF (Financial) below.

The top 2 charts, XLB and XLRE showed outperformance in the relative strength pane since November and December 2021 yet their prices still did not break above the previous swing high. These 2 sectors outperform S&P 500 yet they are not the strongest because of the price structure, which might take more time to unfold.

XLI and XLF show similar relative strength comparing to S&P 500 while their price structures form lower low and lower high, which is a sign of weakness.

Lagging Sectors – XLK, XLY, XLC

The last 3 sectors, XLK (Technology), XLY (Consumer Discretionary), XLC (Communication Services) are the lagging sectors, as shown below.

Both their price structures and the relative strength trend down with lower low and lower high. These 3 sectors are clearly not in favored by the smart money since December 2021.

It is essential to focus on the outperforming sectors like XLE (Energy), XLP (Consumer Staples), XLU (Utilities), XLV (Health Care), XLB (Materials) and XLRE (Real Estate) and to dive into the outperforming industry groups within the sectors before picking the stocks showing Wyckoff accumulation pattern for trend trading.

Stock Market Outlook Video Using Wyckoff Method

Let’s find out where the prices of S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones and Russell 2000 likely to go to. Watch the video below to determine how to use Wyckoff method to derive a directional bias with the volume and the price action alone. Visit TradePrecise.com to get more stock market insights in email for free.

Big Money Interest Grows Archer-Daniels-Midland

And the agricultural processer could keep climbing due to increasing commodity prices. But another likely reason is Big Money lifting the stock.

So, what’s Big Money? Said simply, that’s when a stock goes up in price alongside chunky volumes. It’s indicative of institutions betting on the shares.

Smart money managers are always looking for the next hot stock. And Archer-Daniels-Midland has many fundamental qualities that are attractive.

This sets up well for the stock going forward. But how the shares have been trading points to more upside. As I’ll show you, the Big Money has been consistent in the shares.

You see, fund managers are always looking to bet on the next outlier stocks…the best in class. They spend countless hours sizing up companies, reading reports, speaking to analysts…you name it. When they find a company firing on all cylinders, they pounce in a big way.

That’s why I’ve learned how critical it is to gauge Big Money demand for shares. To show you what I mean, have a look at all the Big Money signals ADM has made the last year.

The last few weeks have seen Big Money activity, too. Each green bar signals big trading volumes as the stock ramped in price:

Source: www.mapsignals.com

In the last year, the stock attracted 23 Big Money buy signals. Generally speaking, recent green bars could mean more upside is ahead.

Now, let’s check out technical action grabbing my attention:

Outperformance is important for leading stocks.

Next, it’s a good idea to check under the hood. Meaning, I want to make sure the fundamental story is strong too. As you can see, Archer-Daniels-Midland has been growing sales and earnings at double-digit rates. Take a look:

  • 1-year sales growth rate (+32.4%)
  • 3-year EPS growth rate (+19.1%)

Source: FactSet

Marrying great fundamentals with technically superior stocks is a winning recipe over the long-term.

In fact, ADM has been a top-rated stock at my research firm, MAPsignals, for years. That means the stock has buy pressure, strong technicals, and growing fundamentals. We have a ranking process that showcases stocks like this on a weekly basis.

ADM has a lot of qualities that are attracting Big Money. It’s made this list 11 times since 2001, with its first appearance on 11/05/2001…and gaining 780.9% since. The blue bars below show the times that Archer-Daniels-Midland was a top pick.

Source: www.mapsignals.com

It’s been a top stock in the consumer staples sector according to the MAPsignals process. I wouldn’t be surprised if ADM makes additional appearances in the years to come. Let’s tie this all together.

The Bottom Line

The Archer-Daniels-Midland rally could have further to go. Big Money buying in the shares is signaling to take notice. Shares could be positioned for further upside, and it pays a current 1.9% dividend. Given the historical gains in share price and strong fundamentals, this stock could be worth a spot in a growth-oriented portfolio.

Disclosure: the author holds no positions in ADM at the time of publication.

Learn more about the MAPsignals process here.

Contact

https://mapsignals.com/contact/

 

Big Money Rings Up Dollar General

So, what’s Big Money? Said simply, that’s when a stock goes up in price alongside chunky volumes. It’s indicative of institutions betting on the shares.

Smart money managers are always looking for the next hot stock. And Dollar General has many fundamental qualities that are attractive.

This sets up well for the stock going forward. But how the shares have been trading points to more upside. As I’ll show you, the Big Money has been consistent in the shares.

You see, fund managers are always looking to bet on the next outlier stocks…the best in class. They spend countless hours sizing up companies, reading reports, speaking to analysts…you name it. When they find a company firing on all cylinders, they pounce in a big way.

That’s why I’ve learned how critical it is to gauge Big Money demand for shares. To show you what I mean, have a look at all the Big Money signals DG has made the last year.

The last few weeks have seen Big Money activity, too. Each green bar signals big trading volumes as the stock ramped in price:

Source: www.mapsignals.com

In 2021, the stock attracted 4 Big Money buy signals. Generally speaking, recent green bars could mean more upside is ahead.

Now, let’s check out technical action grabbing my attention:

Outperformance is important for leading stocks.

Next, it’s a good idea to check under the hood. Meaning, I want to make sure the fundamental story is strong too. As you can see, Dollar General has been growing sales and earnings at a double-digit rate. Take a look:

  • 3-year sales growth rate (+13.0%)
  • 3-year earnings growth rate (+26.0%)

Source: FactSet

Marrying great fundamentals with technically superior stocks is a winning recipe over the long-term.

In fact, DG has been a top-rated stock at my research firm, MAPsignals, for years. That means the stock has buy pressure, strong technicals, and growing fundamentals. We have a ranking process that showcases stocks like this on a weekly basis.

DG has a lot of qualities that are attracting Big Money. It’s made this list 8 times since 2016, with its first appearance on 3/15/2016…and gaining 180.19% since. The blue bars below show the times that Dollar General was a top pick:

Source: www.mapsignals.com

It’s been a top stock in the consumer staples sector according to the MAPsignals process. I wouldn’t be surprised if DG makes additional appearances in the years to come. Let’s tie this all together.

The Bottom Line

The Dollar General rally could have further to go. Big Money buying in the shares is signaling to take notice. Shares could be positioned for further upside. Given the historical gains in share price and strong fundamentals, this stock could be worth a spot in a growth-oriented portfolio.

Disclosure: the author holds no positions in DG in personal or managed accounts at the time of publication.

Learn more about the MAPsignals process here.

Disclaimer

https://mapsignals.com/contact/

 

One Chart Reveals The Sector Rotation In The Stock Market

In case you are still wondering what’s happening in the stock market since November 2021, the chart below will give you a clear picture.

Based on the ratio chart IVW/IVE where IVW is S&P 500 Growth ETF and IVE is S&P 500 Value ETF, it can be observed that the price peaked in mid of November 2021 followed by a lower high and lower low and had a sharp selloff in the first week of January in 2022.

As shown the price action of the above chart, the growth stocks started to underperform the value stocks in December 2021 (since it formed a lower high and a lower low) and the scenario is getting worse as reflected in the selloff last week.

Another thing to pay attention to is the increasing of the volume during the correction as this suggested urgent selling by the institutional investors. Nuances of the price and volume are to be studied via volume spread analysis in order to detect the subtle difference between institutional selling versus a normal pullback.

Effect of Fed’s Tapering to the Stock Market

This is In line with the Federal Reserve’s announcement of reducing the monthly bond buying program back in November 2021 because lots of leading growth stocks like Sea (SE), Shopify (SHOP), Upstart (UPST), Zscaler (ZS), Bill.com (BILL) started a steep correction since mid of November 2021.

There are tell-tale signs behind the sharp decline of the growth stocks, which you can refer to the post on the deterioration of the stock market breadth to find out how to judge the overall health in the stock market.

As the growth stocks are very sensitive and vulnerable to credit tightening environment, it is not surprised to see them kick start the correction especially given their rich valuation in 2021.

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Sector Rotation to Energy, Finance and Consumer Sectors

While the sector rotation is on-going with the growth stocks being abandoned, cyclical and defensive sectors like Energy (XLE), Finance (XLF) and Consumer (XLP) are breaking all-time high, as shown in the chart below:

Consumer staple (XLP) sector is traditionally a defensive sector. So, it is not surprised to have money flows in upon a market correction or a technology sector selloff. The cyclical sectors like the energy and finance are bucking the trend of the market thanks to the Santa Claus rally in crude oil and the expectation of rising interest rate macro environment, with at least 2-3 rate hikes coming in 2022 as guided by Fed.

S&P 500 Price Prediction

S&P 500 futures (ES) broke below the critical support at 4710 on 5 Jan 2022 and subsequently it failed to rally back above, which is a bearish sign for more weakness ahead. Should S&P 500 break below 4660, lower price targets at 4600 and 4500 could be expected. Refer to the chart below:

Since S&P 500 is vulnerable for a correction, if you are keen for a long trade, it is essential to carefully select the stocks within these outperforming sectors (XLP, XLE, XLF) with the best entry setup and high reward to risk ratio. Stop loss is essential for trading in case the trade setup fail due to the market weakness. Else shorting weak stocks like those in the ARKK ETF could be a better choice.