U.S. Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 90.180, Weakens Under 89.460

The U.S. Dollar is consolidating against a basket of major currencies after a week of sharp declines that pushed it to its lowest level in two and a half years. Sellers were mostly influenced throughout the week by optimism driven by the rollout of vaccinations to fight the coronavirus outbreak and hopes for a new government stimulus bill.

At 18:23 GMT, March U.S. Dollar Index futures are trading 89.965, up 0.224 or +0.25%.

The dollar also plunged after the Federal Reserve pledged to keep interest rates low until the economy shows signs of a sustainable recovery.

The greenback was also being aided on Friday by a slight dip in demand for riskier assets as stocks slipped from record highs as lawmakers rushed to bridge differences on additional coronavirus stimulus measures.

Daily March U.S. Dollar Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 89.640 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The nearest main top is 92.730.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 91.150 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The minor range is 91.150 to 89.640. Its 50% level at 90.395 is the primary upside target and resistance level.

The short-term range is 92.730 to 89.640. Its retracement zone at 91.185 to 91.550 is resistance.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The inside move suggests investor indecision and impending volatility.

If buyers take control of the price action then look for a move through yesterday’s high at 90.180. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the move to possibly extend into the minor pivot at 90.395.

If sellers return then look for a move through 89.640. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the April 17, 2018 main bottom at 89.230.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Daily Forecast – Bullish Investors Reacting to Forward-Looking RBA Statement

Both the Australian and New Zealand Dollars surged to the upside on Wednesday before pulling back slightly. The Aussie and Kiwi jumped, as risk appetite grew on optimism that the worst of the economic downturn from the spread of the coronavirus is in the past.

The prospects of a swift global economic recovery from the coronavirus-induced collapse in world growth widened investor appetite for riskier assets, but buyers were also influenced by fresh government stimulus globally which also helped overshadow a host of other worries from the coronavirus to Hong Kong and growing U.S. civil unrest.

At 07:56 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .6923, up 0.0026 or +0.37% and the NZD/USD is at .6407, up 0.0038 or +0.59%.

Reserve Bank of Australia Maintains Current Policy

Australia’s central bank held rates at all-time lows on Tuesday and sounded less gloomy as the economy gradually reopens during what is likely to be the worst quarter since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

In a statement released Tuesday announcing the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to maintain its current policy settings, RBA Governor Philip Lowe said:  “Over the past month, infection rates have declined in many countries and there has been some easing of restrictions on activity.”

“If this continues, a recovery in the global economy will get under way, supported by both the large fiscal packages and the significant easing in monetary policies,” Lowe said.

Australia Confirms End to Longest Economic Boom as Wild Fires, Pandemic Destroy Growth

Australia’s economy has fallen into recession, the country’s treasurer said on Wednesday, after data showed gross domestic product fell last quarter as entire business sectors were closed to fight the coronavirus.

The A$2 trillion ($1.39 trillion) economy contracted 0.3% in the three months ended March, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said, the first decline in nine years.

That took annual growth to 1.4%, the slowest since the 2009 global financial crisis, as the economy was hit by the worst bushfire season in living memory, a prolonged drought and pandemic that shut down businesses and left many without jobs.

When asked if the country was already in recession, technically defined as two straight quarters of GDP contraction, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg answered in the affirmative.

“Based on what we know from Treasury, we’re going to see a contraction in the June quarter, which is going to be a lot more substantial that what we have seen in the March quarter,” he told reporters in Canberra.

Daily Forecast

Investors are showing little reaction to the Australian GDP report because it is stale news. It was priced into the market weeks ago. Investors are now betting on a fast recovery and reacting more to the statement from RBA Governor Philip which is forward-looking.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – February 28, 2019 Forecast

Gold traders showed almost no reaction to the Advance GDP report which came in at 2.6%, higher than the forecast. The primary catalysts driving the price action is the news of the abrupt ending of the nuclear talks between the United States and North Korea, and the lack of positive news regarding U.S.-China trade negotiations.

At 12:52 GMT, April Comex gold is trading $1322.60, up $1.50 or +0.11%.

Comex Gold
Daily April Comex Gold

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, but momentum is slowing. A trade through $1349.80 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A trade through $1304.70 will change the main trend to down.

The short-term range is $1304.70 to $1349.80. Its retracement zone at $1327.30 to $1321.90 is controlling the price action. The market is currently trading inside this range.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the current price at $1322.60 and the earlier price action, the direction of the April Comex gold market the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at $1321.90.

Bullish Scenario

Holding above $1321.90 will indicate that buyers are coming in to defend the uptrend. However, any rally is likely to be labored because of a series of potential resistance levels at $1322.70, $1325.80, $1327.30 and $1329.50.

The Gann angle at $1329.50 is the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next target angle dropping in at $1337.80.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1321.90 will signal the presence of sellers. The daily chart is wide open to the downside with the next target angle coming in at $1313.70 and $1305.50. The latter is the last potential support angle before the $1304.70 main bottom.