Gold Forecast – Legitimate Breakdown or Post-Fed Fakeout?

As I write, gold is below the $1800 level, and I can feel panic in the air. Anyone overleveraged has either been stopped out or is seriously contemplating selling. This is exactly how bottoms form. The big trader’s (banks) run stops forcing the little guy to liquidate, thus creating excess liquidity to enter new positions. I have seen this happen hundreds of times.

KEY LEVELS

Is the current decline in gold a legitimate breakdown, or is this just another post-Fed fakeout? I’m guessing the latter, but we should know for more by Friday’s close. Below are the levels I will be monitoring.

GOLD DAILY FUTURES

Gold (currently $1784.70) is below the $1800 level after yesterday’s Fed announcement. If prices begin to stabilize over the next 24-hours and finish the week above $1800, then I think this was just a post-Fed fakeout. But if gold continues to weaken and finishes the week below $1775, then the breakdown is probably real, and we could be in for a more severe correction.

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I’m always skeptical of the price action surrounding a Fed decision. More times than not, short-term trends in precious metals reverse on or just after an announcement. And since gold has been correcting since the June 1st high ($1919.20), I think the odds are beginning to favor a near-term bottom.

On a positive note, silver prices are holding up well, relative to gold, and I continue to look for a breakout above $30.00 in July.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For regular updates, please visit here.

Gold Forecast – Gold Price Explodes Towards $1900 as Bitcoin Collapses

Despite an obvious breakout in precious metals – sentiment remains stubbornly bearish. Investors may still be shell-shocked from the decline that began last August.

The US dollar is rolling over and could test the January low (89.20) relatively soon. Breaking critical support could a sharp decline and become a tailwind for precious metals.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

-US DOLLAR- The US dollar (currently 89.79) is getting dangerously close to the January low of 89.20. A breakdown below 89 and then 88 would be incredibly bearish and could trigger a steep decline into August or September. If a breakdown is established, that would conceivably propel precious metals significantly higher.

 

-GOLD- Gold is above the intermediate trendline and cleared the 200-day moving average. Despite all this, interest in the sector remains low. I think the 8-month decline devastated sentiment. Currently, prices are coming into resistance around $1878. If they clear that, I think we could see $1900 to $1920 later this week. All-in-all, prices remain on track towards our $2000+ target by July or August.

 

-SILVER- Silver is above $28.00, and this is where I’d like to see the uptrend begin to accelerate. Prices remain on track for a breakout above $30.00.

 

-PLATINUM- Platinum continues an upward slanting consolidation. Prices need to close decisively above $1280 to register a breakout. Whereas a finish below $1180 could trigger a pullback back towards $1100.

 

-GDX- Miners jumped sharply Monday and are up nearly 30% from their March bottom. Surprisingly, sentiment remains bearish – I’m not sure why. Overall, we remain on track to test and likely exceed last year’s $45.54 high by July or August.

 

-GDXJ- Junior’s recaptured the 200-day MA, and the trend may finally begin to accelerate. I think a breakout in silver above $30.00 could send prices piercingly higher. Overall, I expect GDXJ to test and likely exceed last year’s $64.91 high.

 

-SILJ- The junior silver ETF is back above the $17.00 level and could be on the verge of a breakout. Target-wise, I think SILJ could run to $25.00 or higher if spot silver reaches our minimum target of $36.00.

 

The FOMC minutes come out today at 2:00 PM. I will be watching for inflation concerns.

In closing, gold miners should continue to lead and outperform gold over the coming weeks. Our Premium Metals Portfolio focuses on high-quality miners with excellent cash flow.

Near-term, I will be watching silver and platinum for a breakout to fresh highs. Their trends are primed and could explode higher.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For regular updates, please visit here..

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Bitcoin Price Update – Prices Should Find Support Around $30,000

The recent plunge appears almost over, and we see firm support surrounding $30,000. Our 2021 outlook expects new highs and an advance to $90,000+ by year-end.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

Bitcoin collapsed below $40,000, triggering a waterfall of stop orders. The correction that began in April appears to be a standard ABC-style pullback. Prices should find support around $30,000 over the coming days. It would take a decisive break down below $24,000 to recommend a more ominous outcome. Overall, our work supports one more advance into late 2021 that could exceed $90,000.

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AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For regular updates, please visit here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Forecast – Gold Confirms Breakout Despite Stubbornly Bearish Sentiment

This leads me to believe the current rally in precious metals has a lot further to run, and gold may exceed our forecast for $2000 by August.

GOLD BOTTOMED IN MARCH

In my March gold update, I wrote: “I’m looking for a bottom this week between $1665 and $1685”. It turns out prices bottomed a few trading days later at $1673.30 and smack dab in the middle of our target window.

As bullish as I was at that time, I felt even stronger about gold miners, which were insanely undervalued. Regarding GDX, I stated, “If I’m correct and precious metals started a new multi-year bull market, then this might be the last time we see GDX near $30.00 for a very long time.” I went on to say, “The time to be greedy is when others are fearful; I think we are almost there in gold.” That turned out to be timely advice as gold bottomed shortly after.

BEARISH SENTIMENT

Sentiment towards precious metals reached rock bottom in March. Even some long-time members were inclined to throw in the towel. I have been through hundreds of gold cycles, and anytime emotions get that raw, I know a bottom is close. I find it most surprising that I continue to receive bearish pushback despite the obvious breakout. Like a large ship, I guess sentiment turns slowly.

GOLD DAILY

After forming a beautiful double bottom in March, gold has broken out above the 9-month trendline and recaptured the 200-day moving average. Prices could exceed $1900 in the coming days. The next 40-day low isn’t due until late June, so we see plenty of room for near-term upside. Overall, this cycle should test the $2000 area and perhaps extend to new all-time highs before peaking around August.

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GDX DAILY

Miners are leading gold higher and should extend above the 2020 high ($45.54) by July or August. Today’s robust 4.86% up day should be enough to shake any remaining bears.

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Our Gold Cycle Indicator is just emerging from maximum cycle bottoming, suggesting the current advance still has significant upside.

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In closing, gold miners should continue to lead and outperform gold over the coming weeks. Our Premium Metals Portfolio focuses on high-quality miners with excellent cash flow.

Near-term, I will be watching silver and platinum for a breakout to fresh highs. Their trends are primed and could explode higher.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For regular updates, please visit here.

Gold Forecast – Gold Prices Set to Soar Over Exploding Inflation Data

The Consumer Price Index rose 4.2% from a year ago, compared to economist’s estimate of 3.6%. The monthly increase blew away the forecasts of 0.3%, arriving at a blistering 0.8%. We have not seen numbers jump to this degree since 2009.

As inflation soars, real rates (Treasury yields minus inflation) will hurt bond and equity investors while benefiting hard assets like precious metals.

Our cycle work suggests gold formed a major low in March 2021, and prices are just beginning their next major advance. It is not too late to for long-term holdings – we prefer physical precious metals and view them as the original decentralized asset.

GOLD FUTURES DAILY: Gold is consolidating just below the intermediate trendline. A breakout above $1850 would be bullish and should trigger the next leg higher in the coming days. Prices would have to drop and close below $1800 to suggest a more profound pullback, which I view as highly unlikely given today’s data.

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GOLD BIG PICTURE: The big picture monthly chart of gold paints an incredibly bullish picture, in our opinion. After breaking out to new all-time highs last August, prices corrected back to the 20-month moving average. The last time we had a similar setup was in 2004. From here, our technical outlook anticipates a multi-year advance to a minimum target of $7500. However, given today’s monetary policy, a voyage to $10,000 or even $15,000 is not unreasonable by 2028 or 2030.

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Silver and platinum are also primed to explode higher over the coming weeks as inflation rages. Gold miners remain reasonably priced. Our Premium Metals Portfolio has been accumulating quality miners throughout the pullback and is well-positioned for this next advance.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Forecast – Soaring Inflation and a Collapsing Dollar to Fuel Gold’s Next Big Advance 

Companies were unable to fill entry-level positions as they compete with Federal unemployment benefits. Not working apparently still pays better than working for some Americans.

Companies continue to cite higher input costs and inflationary worries across all sectors of the economy. The next round of CPI (consumer price index) numbers comes out Wednesday.

SPIKING INFLATION

Note below the parabolic rise in lumber prices. Lumber per 110,000 board feet has rocketed from $259.80 in 2020 to $1,686.00. This is adding tremendous pressure to residential construction expenses.

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Source: Bloomberg

BIDDING WARS

Higher building costs, low housing inventory, and record low interest rates have created a perfect storm for skyrocketing housing prices. In some areas, housing has jumped 15% to 20% during the pandemic. I hear stories of bidding wars and prospective buyers offering anywhere from $50,000 to $100,000 over the asking price to secure a property.

Feeding these absurd price increases is unprecedented money printing. Below is a chart of the year-over-year change in the M2 money supply. In February 2021, it hit a record 27%.

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Source: Bloomberg

In my opinion, the inflation genie is out of the bottle, and there is little the Fed can do to stop it. As companies increase prices, consumers will become conditioned. Eventually, the psychological aspect of higher inflation and a collapsing dollar will prompt individuals to buy items today for fear of higher prices later. This is something we have not seen since the 1970s.

RAMPANT SPECULATION

Eventually, the speculation we currently see in cryptocurrencies will move to precious metals (hard assets). Last week, Dogecoin exceeded the market cap of General Motors. Unbelievable!

Dogecoin was literally created as a joke in 2013 – it has ZERO use but speculation. A few days ago, while I was getting an oil change, I overheard employees speculating how they were about to get rich off Dogecoin and how they would instantly quit their jobs. These are the types of conversations you overhear near a top.

Historically speaking, precious metals are hands-down the best long-term inflation hedge, especially silver.

TECHNICAL OUTLOK

US DOLLAR

After a brief bounce, the dollar reversed lower after testing the 50-day EMA. Prices closed below the short-term trendline, and we could be on the verge of a major breakdown. Dropping below the January low (89.17) could trigger a collapse back to the 80 levels by August.

GOLD

Gold broke decisively above the $1800 level, and prices are poised for a sharp advance as the dollar collapses to fresh lows. Initially, we expected a retest of the $2000 level, but prices could surge to new highs if the dollar slips to 80 as forecasted. The 40-day cycle bottomed precisely with our outlook.

SILVER

Silver Prices are rising slowly out of the 8-month cup-with-handle formation. I’d like to see the uptrend begin to accelerate over the coming weeks and mount another assault on the $30.00 price level. Ultimately, I’m looking for a breakout above $30.00 and a run to multi-year highs before the next intermediate cycle peaks sometime in August.

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Expect increased volatility as we determine the fallout over the recent cyberattack on the U.S. oil pipeline.

A much higher than expected CPI number could light a fire under precious metals.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit here.

Gold Forecast – Gold Prices Breaking Out Above $1800 Confirming Next Up leg

Gold is above $1800 and confirmed last week’s outlook for a crucial 40-day cycle low. Prices remain on track for a retest of the $2000 level by July. The next 40-day low is not due until late June, so we see plenty of room for upside near-term.

GOLD FUTURES DAILY: The mid-term gold cycle bottomed on day 37, and prices are just 5-days into a new upswing. With futures clearly above $1800, the uptrends in metals in mines should begin to accelerate.

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Note- The 40-day cycle in gold bottomed on day 37 – slightly early but not surprising given the previous cycle extended to 41-days. On average, we see cyclical turning points about every 39-days.

GOLD MINERS (GDX): After an agonizing 7-month decline, gold miners formed a major bottom in March. In fact, we believe GDX may never return to the $30.00 level again for the remainder of this 10-year bull market.

Currently, miners are attacking the April high ($36.83) and the all-important 200-day MA ($36.99). Once prices push above $37.00, then I think there is a good chance shorts will begin to cover, and we could get the 5%+ bullish recognition day I’ve been expecting. Prices overwhelmingly confirmed last week’s 40-day cycle low, and we are only 4-days into a new upcycle.

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bullish recognition day is when the market suddenly acknowledges a trend change. Traders that were still looking lower get caught on the wrong side and frantically begin to cover. In GDX, this usually looks like a robust 5%+ up day on big volume.

We see tremendous value in high-quality gold producers. These miners are minting money (real money – not Dogecoin) and are incredibly undervalued, in our opinion. Our favorite producer currently is Kirkland Lake.

Silver and platinum are also primed and could explode higher over the coming weeks. Our Premium Metals Portfolio has been accumulating quality miners throughout the pullback and is well-positioned for this next advance.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Forecast – Gold Bottomed as Forecasted and Sets Sights on $1800

Gold bottomed last week in line with our 40-Day Cycle Forecast.

THE 40-DAY GOLD CYCLE: Below you will see gold switched from cycle highs every 40-days (red arrows) to forming cycle lows (green arrows) at the March bottom. We just completed the first 40-day low in a new upcycle, and the trend is set to accelerate once gold retakes $1800.

The 40-day cycle in gold bottomed last week on day 37. Slightly early but not surprising given the previous cycle extended to 42-days. The next 40-day low isn’t due until late June, so there is plenty of room for upside. Overall, gold should climb its way back to test the $2000 level by July or August.

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GOLD MINERS (GDX): The 40-day cycle bottomed in line with our expectations. The next low isn’t due until late June, so we have plenty of room to run. I’d like to see a bullish recognition day in miners sometime this week. That will likely occur when gold convincingly retakes $1800. Overall, miners should test and perhaps reach fresh highs in the coming weeks.

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Note- A bullish recognition day is when the market collectively acknowledges a trend change. Traders looking for lower prices exit shorts and immediately switch to longs. In GDX, this usually looks like a robust 5%+ up day on big volume.

It’s not too late to position for the next leg higher in precious metals. We are only on day one of a new 40-day cycle. Silver and miners have the most near-term potential, in our opinion.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit here.

Gold Forecast – Gold Price Approaching Crucial 40-day Low

After bottoming in March, gold is dropping into its first 40-day low. Prices should stabilize in the coming days and start the next leg higher in May. Overall, we see gold retesting $2000 by July or August.

The price action in metals and miners is often tumultuous surrounding a Fed announcement. Gold initially reacted higher on Wednesday only to slip to fresh lows the following day. Our cycle work supports a bottom any day now and renewed uptrend starting in May.

THE 40-DAY CYCLE IN GOLD:  In the chart below, you will see how gold switched from making cycle highs every 40-days (downtrend) to making cycle lows (uptrend) at the March bottom. Today marks the 38th trading day since the March low, and we should be nearing the next base. We expect gold to break above $1800 by mid-May and ultimately retest the $2000 level by July or August.

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GOLD MINERS CONFIRMING: The gold mining ETF GDX has also adhered to a similar 40-day cycle. Thursday marked day 40, and a low is possible (miners often lead gold). Overall, we view this as a natural correction in a growing uptrend. Our Premium Metals Portfolio is long quality gold stocks and continues to accumulate on pullbacks.

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The Gold Cycle Indicator finished at four (4). We remain within cycle bottoming and the beginning phases of an emerging uptrend.

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In summary, it is not too late to position for the next leg higher in metals and miners – the current uptrend is just beginning, in our opinion.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

Gold Forecast – March Bottom Signals New Multi-Month Advance

On March 5th, I penned an article titled: Gold Price Forecast – A Rare Post Crisis Buying Opportunity. Prices bottomed 3-days later and just below our $1675 target. We believe a new uptrend is just beginning. Below is a copy of our most recent gold report.

FRIDAY GOLD FORECAST APRIL 23, 2021

As the inflation numbers tick up into May, the rallies in metals and miners should gain momentum. Our work supports an advance in gold to $2000+ by July or August. Gold miners continue to offer more upside, in our opinion.

The Gold Cycle Indicator finished at 12. A new upcycle is just beginning and could last several months. Our Educational Metals Portfolio is overweight gold miners.

 

GOLD– As long as gold holds above the $1750 level, I think the surprises will come to the upside. Gold probably needs to take out $1800 to spark the next multi-day advance. I continue to look for a retest of the $2000 level by July or August.

 

-SILVER Silver is trying to recapture the contentious $26.00 level. As long as prices stay above $24.50, I continue to expect a breakout above $30.00. I’ll better estimate targets once we see the magnitude of the breakout.

 

PLATINUM Platinum remains stuck in consolidation and needs to break above $1260 or below $1140 for direction. Ultimately, I expect higher prices.

 

-GDX- I continue to believe miners formed an important bottom in March 2021. The trend remains a bit hesitant. Gold may have to rally above $1800 to trigger the 5%+ bullish recognition day I’ve been awaiting. As long as prices stay above $34.50, the path of least resistance looks higher.

 

-GDXJ- It’s been two steps forward and one step back since the March low. Prices need to get back above the 200-day MA to summon a more robust advance. If silver breaks sharply above $30.00 as expected, I think we could see new highs by July/August.

 

-KL- Kirkland Lake Gold remains my favorite producer. I think prices reached an important bottom in March. As long as prices stay above $37.00, I think they will head back towards $50.00+. This is one stock I plan on holding for several years.

 

-NEM- As long as Newmont stays above $63.00, I believe prices should head to new highs.

 

-SILJ- The cup-with-handle pattern in the silver junior mining ETF is a bit busy and less clear due to its volatility. Nevertheless, I believe prices bottomed, and as long as they stay above $14.50, I expect new highs.

 

-PTON- There was a little confusion regarding the chart of Peloton. I’m only using it as an illustration for a head and shoulder topping pattern. Though it could signal a broader decline in the stock market, I’m not suggesting a short. I thought the pattern was exceptional and wanted to share it with members. A definitive close below $95.00 would signal a pattern breakdown and support a downside target of $50.00.

 

-XLE- Energy stocks are trying to hold support surrounding $47.00. The odds favor a breakdown and decline towards $40.00 to $44.00.

Markets may remain subdued before next week’s Fed announcement. Overall, prices are behaving as expected coming out of the March lows.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Miners Supporting a Breakout in Precious Metals

After a prolonged decline, gold miners are finally showing signs of strength. The charts below support an immediate breakout and renewed uptrend. This dovetails nicely with our Gold Forecast supporting a return to $2000 by August.

GOLD MINING ETF (GDX): I believe gold miners formed a bottom in March. If correct, prices should stairstep their way back towards the $45.00 level and potentially to new highs by August.

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NEWMONT (NEM): We are getting a robust move in Newmont above the March high and intermediate trendline. By all measures, it looks like a breakout. Prices could reach new all-time highs as soon as May.

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FRANCO-NEVADA (FNV): Franco-Nevada was the first to break above the March high. Prices are above the 200-day MA after forming the small bull flag. The trend should continue back towards the $160 level and new all-time highs.

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KIRKLAND LAKE GOLD (KL): Kirkland Lake Gold is my favorite gold producer and could have significant free cash flow in 2021. They have zero debt and $850 million in cash. Prices formed a picture perfect W-bottom in March and are breaking out as I write. This is my highest conviction holding; I am significantly overweight.

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Our Gold Cycle Indicator is at its most bullish reading (ZERO). Our Educational Portfolio has been buying miners aggressively. I believe it is well-positioned for the next advance. 

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 We recently updated our Top 10 Speculative Gold Stocks. Several companies have gold in the ground selling for just $10 per ounce. For more updates, please visit here.

Disclosure: I am long all the stocks mentioned in this article.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Forecast – Double Bottom Breakout Supports $2000 Gold by August

Gold entered a prolonged correction after reaching new all-time highs in 2020. The double bottom in March looks complete, and we expect a multi-month advance and retest of the $2000 level by August.

If you’re new to precious metals, gold investors need to have nerves of steel. Corrections in this space are trying events due to duration and severity. The last 8-months was no exception. If you are still standing – congratulations!

Gold Forecast Near-Term

Gold is confirming a double bottom breakout, and prices should begin to stairstep their way back towards the $2000 level, possibly by August. I continue to see deep value in gold miners and believe they will outperform metal prices moving forward.

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Gold Forecast Long-Term

Below is the Monthly Gold chart. Gold broke out of a 6-year base and confirmed a new bull market in 2019. Prices have pulled back to the 20-month moving average (first test in a new bull market). The last time this setup occurred was in 2004.

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Later this decade, we believe gold will reach $8500+ with a real chance of exceeding $10,000 if governments continue with their experiments with modern monetary theory.

Our Gold Cycle Indicator is at its most bullish reading (ZERO) and the Premium Educational Portfolio has been buying miners aggressively. I believe it is well-positioned for the next advance.

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We recently updated our Top 10 Speculative Gold Stocks. Several companies have gold in the ground selling for just $10 per ounce. For more updates, please visit here.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

Gold Forecast – Fed Decision Could Trigger Bullish Breakout

Everyone will be looking for changes in their outlook. There’s speculation they may have to begin raising interest rates sooner than forecasted due to the sharp rise in 10-year yields.

Gold Near-Term Key Levels

The price action surrounding a Fed announcement is often tricky. Sometimes prices reverse a day or two later, so it is important not to read too much into the initial market reaction.

  • A breakout in gold above $1740 would be bullish.
  • Whereas breaking lower and closing below $1700 would be near-term bearish.

GOLD 1-HOUR CHART:

Gold is consolidating below $1740. These patterns usually break to the upside. A breakout above $1740 could trigger an advance above the November $1767 low and confirm a bottom at $1673. Gold would have to close progressively back below $1700 to neutralize the potential for an immediate breakout.

Our recent Gold Update suggests gold miners confirmed an important low, and gold should soon follow.

Our educational portfolio entered new gold positions last week.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more updates, please visit here.

Gold Update – Precious Metals Close to Confirming a Bottom

GOLD CHART

Gold tagged the lower dashed trend channel as projected and completed a swing low. I think gold reached a meaningful low. I bought gold miners for our educational portfolio yesterday.

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Gold miners are showing subtle signs of strength and may have bottomed last week. I see a lot of similarities between now and the 2016 correction (see below).

GDX 2016 CORRECTION

After a very sharp rise in 2016, miners entered a multi-month corrective phase. The 2020 pattern is following a similar path and could confirm a bottom soon.

Note: The third and final breakdown (below the November 2016 low) lasted about 2-weeks; prices bottomed 4-days after the initial breakdown and closed back above the November on day 10.

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GDX 2020 CORRECTION

After a sharp post-Covid rally in 2020, gold miners entered a prolonged 2016 style correction. The pattern stretched a bit longer, but we have completed the three drops and broke the November low. I believe prices bottomed and are about to establish a new uptrend.

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GOLD MINERS LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

I wanted to remind everyone of the big picture regarding precious metals. If commodities are starting a decade-long bull market, as I suspect, then the retest of the $30.00 breakout in GDX, that just occurred, could turn out to be one heck of long-term entry, in my opinion.

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Several factors favor a bottom in precious metals. A strong and decisive move in GDX back above the November $33.00 low would promote this outlook. Longer-term, I believe precious metals are headed much higher.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more updates, please visit here.

Gold Price Forecast – A Rare Post Crisis Buying Opportunity

In September 2001, gold spiked to fresh highs after the 911 terrorist attack. Just a few months later, prices dropped back to pre-911 levels. What happened – why did gold drop when the world had changed forever? Good question. It did not make sense then, and the current decline does not make sense either.

Most investors are oblivious to the stellar buying opportunity. Because you are reading this, I am hopeful you are not one of them.

GOLD PRICES AFTER 911: After the initial shock of the attack, gold prices fell back to pre-9/11 levels ($270). That turned out to be one heck of an opportunity. I see the same setup now as gold approaches pre-Covid price levels.

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Think about it: Since Covid began nearly 12-months ago, an astronomical amount of debt has been created. Consider the figures below.

1) In the weeks following the 2020 crisis, the US issued more debt than the previous five recessions combined (1980, 1982, 1990, 2001 & 2008). Let that one sink in for a moment.

2) The Fed under Jay Powell bought more US Treasuries in 6-week’s than it did under Bernake and Yellen combined (a 12-year period). The amount of debt we are talking about is unbelievable, and they are not close to being done.

When you consider the unprecedented stimulus over the last 12-months and what is still to come, I can’t imagine gold will stay near pre-Covid levels for long. Anyone that bought the post-911 dip was delighted with their decision. I believe the same will be true now.

GOLD- Gold prices are back to post-Covid support between $1660 and $1700. The dashed intermediate trendline is currently crossing the $1675 support area. I see massive support in this area, and I believe we are approaching a bottom. However, we can’t rule out a spike lower if interest rates shoot up to 2% over the near-term.

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When prices are dropping like this, it can be scary. It is essential to remain focused on the long-term. I’m confident commodities are beginning a new supercycle, and we will look back at today’s prices as an absolute gift.

Our Gold Cycle Indicator reached a maximum bullish reading of ZERO (0). This happens only once every 2-years or so – supporting our outlook for an important low in gold.

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The best value I see right now is in senior gold companies like NEM, GOLD, KL, BGT, and FNV. I’m getting ready to add long-term positions to the Premium Member’s educational portfolio.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Tesla Stock Update: Meltdown in Tesla Beginning as Forecasted

In my February Tesla update, I described how Tesla was positioned for an accelerated breakdown if prices slipped below the $780 low. At the time, TSLA was trading just above $800 (see chart below). It appears the breakdown is underway, and this could turn into an outright collapse into mid-March.

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CURRENT CHART (TSLA): Anybody that bought Tesla after they entered the S&P 500 on December 21, 2020 is losing money below $650. A lot of new investors have only seen values go higher – never lower. If prices drop below $600, I think some of these investors may begin to panic out of their positions. The $600 level may be tested soon, let’s see what happens.

Note- Prices could collapse to the price gap near $420 or lower if we enter a waterfall type decline.

MARKET UPDATE (SPY): Prices are very close to testing last week 378 low. The market remains vulnerable to a potential breakdown into mid-March, similar to 12-months ago.

Potential Breakdown Triggers: Senate negotiations over the $1.9 trillion stimulus turn negative or spiking interest rates are the obvious choices.

Note- I’m afraid a breakdown in the stock market could trigger more downside in gold miners, so I’d like to wait a little longer to see if stocks break down before adding to our educational portfolio. Senior gold miners are very cheap, in my opinion.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Forecast – Expecting a Bottom in Gold this Week

Gold is below the November low, and our Gold Cycle Indicator reached its maximum bullish reading of ZERO (0). The conditions are ripe for a bottom, in our opinion.

The uptrends in silver and platinum remain strong, and prices continue to lead gold. I see the potential for a breakout and sharp advance over the coming weeks in both these metals.

Several gold miners are back to pre-Covid price levels. I view this as an excellent long-term opportunity and believe we will look back at today’s prices as a gift.

The Gold Cycle Indicator finished the week at ZERO (0), our maximum bullish reading.

 

GOLD MONTHLY: Gold is within striking distance of the 20-Month moving average ($1697) after confirming a Bull Market Breakout in 2019. When gold is in a bull market, buying a tag of the 20-month MA is usually a good long-term opportunity. I believe this time is no different.

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GOLD DAILY: This week I’ll be on the lookout for signs of a bottom in gold if/when prices reach the lower intermediate trend channel (currently crossing $1685) or near the post-Covid congestion boundary encompassing $1675. Essentially, I’m looking for a bottom this week between $1665 and $1685. A temporary spike below support remains possible.

 

SILVER FORECAST: After lagging gold for years, silver is finally leading prices higher. I’ve been expecting this, and it is a very bullish sign, in my opinion.

Near-Term Outlook – Silver is consolidating in what I believe is a rounded continuation pattern. Prices could dip down towards $24.00 to maintain pattern symmetry. Ultimately, I expect a breakout above $30.00. It would take a sustained breakdown below $22.00 (the rounded bottom low) to invalidate the pattern and promote a more extended consolidation period.

GDX BREAKOUT BACKTEST: Gold miners broke out from a 7-year base in 2020. Prices are backtesting that breakout area now, and I believe we could be approaching a critical low.

Note- If I’m correct and precious metals have started a new multi-year bull market, then this might be the last time we see GDX near $30.00 for a very long time.

 

The time to be greedy is when others are fearful; I think we are almost there in gold.

I’ll be looking for leading price action from silver and platinum to signal a bottom and the next rally.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For regular updates, please visit here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Price Forecast – Major Breakdown or Buying Opportunity

I am beginning to see investors panic and turn bearish on gold as prices slip below $1750. That tells me we could be approaching a selling climax and an important low. The big picture chart of gold remains decisively bullish and points to higher prices for years to come.

GOLD BIG PICTURE UPDATE

GOLD MONTHLY TREND CHART: I like to turn to the monthly gold chart for a big picture perspective. Looking at the top indicator, you will see this is the first Monthly Stochastics dip below 80 in a new bull market. We had a similar setup in 2003 when gold dropped to $320, which turned out to be a superb buying opportunity. I believe the same is true now.

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The 20-Month Average (pink line above): In bull markets, gold prices should hold above the rising 20-month average (currently $1700). The only exception is when prices dip into an 8-year low (like 2008). Note- The next 8-year low is not due until 2024.

GOLD PRICES AFTER SEPTEMBER 2001: After the initial shock of the 911 attack, gold prices fell back to pre-9/11 levels ($270) a few months later. That turned out to be one heck of an opportunity. I see the same setup now as gold approaches pre-Covid levels.

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GOLD NOW: I believe we could be close to a bottom in gold. Prices could spike lower over the coming days if the stock market sells off, but I think that would be temporary. If we look back 5-years from now, I believe we will consider today’s prices an amazing long-term opportunity.

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In summary, Covid-19 was a pivotal turning point across the globe. There is a lot more money in circulation but the same amount of gold. Just like there was a brief opportunity to buy gold at pre-911 prices a few months after the event, investors are receiving a similar chance in gold now, in my opinion.

I believe now is the time to be greedy when others are fearful.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Stock Market Crash Warning

I’m shocked concerning the similarities between now and 12-months ago in the stock market. In the chart below you will see how prices are following a near perfect repeat preceding the 2020 plunge. If the correlation continues, we could see a sharp selling event in late February.

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S&P 500 ETF (SPY) CLOSEUP: I’ll be monitoring stocks closely for signs of a potential top. Below are the three steps to confirm.

Step 1) Form a swing high (finish below previous session low).

Step 2) Closing below the 10-day EMA.

Step 3) A finish below the 385 level (S&P500 = 3850).

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A confirmed breakdown and collapse in late February could extend the decline into March. I am looking to go long energy aggressively on any pullback.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit here.

Gold Price Forecast – A Quick Spike Lower Equals Massive Buying Opportunity

Our gold cycle indicator is near its maximum bullish reading, and we expect a bottom forthwith.

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Note- Our Gold Cycle Indicator finished at 7 (seven) and we could get a maximum bullish reading of zero in the coming days.

It is important to note that gold is approaching its pre-COVID high of $1700. I doubt prices will stay here long considering the trillions of dollars printed since then.

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The pre-COVID-19 high in gold was around $1700, and that was before the US began printing $1 trillion a month. Any decline close to that area is considered a long-term buying opportunity.

Prices are nearing massive support between $1700 and $1765. Our work expects a bottom in the coming days. Buying anywhere near the pre-COVID highs is a fantastic opportunity, in our opinion.

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AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more frequent updates please visit here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.