The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – August 1st, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.79% on Saturday. Partially reversing a 5.43% rally from Friday, Bitcoin ended the day at $41,439.0.

A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning intraday high $42,398.0 before hitting reverse.

Falling well short of the first major resistance level at $43,562, Bitcoin fell to a late afternoon intraday low $41,051.0.

While steering clear of the first majors support level at $39,605, Bitcoin fell through the 38.2% FIB of $41,592.

Steering clear of sub-$41,000 levels, Bitcoin briefly broke back through the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 before a late slide back to sub-$41,500 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact, supported by the latest return to $42,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need a sustained fall through the 62% FIB of $27,237 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Saturday.

Bitcoin Cash SV fell by 1.60% to lead the way down, with Litecoin (-0.81%) and Ripple’s XRP (-0.89%) also joining Bitcoin in the red.

It was a bullish day for the rest of the majors, however.

Polkadot and Crypto.com Coin rallied by 8.05% and by 5.10% respectively to lead the way.

Binance Coin (+3.12%), Chainlink (+1.92%), and Ethereum (+2.84%) also found strong support.

Cardano’s ADA (+0.71%) trailed the front runners, however.

In the current the week, the crypto total market fell to a Monday low $1,379bn before rising to a Saturday high $1,646bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $1,605bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance fell to a Monday low 47.07% before rising to a Saturday high 49.18%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 48.29%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 0.78% to $41,115.0. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning high $41,468.9 before falling to a low $41,105.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

Crypto.com Coin was up by 1.02% at the start of the day to buck the trend.

It was a bearish start for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 0.40% to lead the way down.

BTCUSD 010821 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to move through the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 and the $41,629 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $42,208 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break back through to $42,000 levels.

Barring a broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Saturday’s high $42,398.0 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at $43,500 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $42,976.

Failure to move through the 38.2% FIB and the $41,629 pivot would bring the first major support level at $40,861 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$40,000 levels. The second major support level at $40,282 should limit the downside.

The Week Ahead – Economic Data, Monetary Policy, and COVID-19 in Focus

On the Macro

It’s quieter week ahead on the economic calendar, with 51 stats in focus in the week ending 6th August. In the week prior, 71 stats had also been in focus.

For the Dollar:

From the private sector, ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs for July will be in focus.

Expect the Non-Manufacturing PMI due out on Wednesday to have the greatest impact.

On the labor market front, ADP nonfarm employment change and weekly jobless claims figures on Wednesday and Thursday will also influence.

Nonfarm payrolls at the end of the week, however, will be the key stat of the week.

In the week ending 30th July, the Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.79% to 92.174.

For the EUR:

It’s a busy week on the economic data front.

Private sector PMIs for Italy and Spain together with finalized numbers for France, Germany, and the Eurozone will influence.

Expect Italy and the Eurozone’s PMIs to be key in the week.

German and Eurozone retail sales figures will also influence, with consumption key to a sustainable economic recovery.

For the week, the EUR rose by 0.84% to $1.1870.

For the Pound:

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

Finalized private sector PMIs for July are due out on Monday and Wednesday.

Expect any revisions to the services PMI to have a greater impact in the week.

Construction PMIs also due out, should have a muted impact, however.

While the finalized numbers will influence, the Bank of England monetary policy decision on Thursday will be the main event.

Last week, the IMF talked up the outlook for the British economy. It now rests in the hands of the BoE.

The Pound ended the week up by 1.13% to $1.3904.

For the Loonie:

It’s a busier week ahead on the economic calendar.

Trade data on Thursday and employment change figures on Friday will be the key numbers.

While trade figures will influence, expect the employment change figures to have a greater impact.

The Loonie ended the week up 0.71% to C$1.2475 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

Manufacturing sector data, building permits, retail sales, and trade data will be in focus.

Retail sales and trade data, due out on Wednesday and Thursday, will be the key stats of the week.

On the monetary policy front, however, the RBA monetary policy decision on Tuesday will be the main event.

The Aussie Dollar ended the week down by 0.30% to $0.7344.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s a quiet week ahead. Mid-week, employment change figures will draw interest ahead of inflation expectation numbers on Friday.

With little else for the markets to consider in the week, expect both sets of numbers to provide direction. The markets are expecting a further pickup in inflationary pressures…

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week flat at $0.6974.

For the Japanese Yen:

Finalized private sector PMIs and Tokyo inflation figures will be in focus in the 1st half of the week.

Expect any revision to the PMIs to be of greater influence.

Late in the week, household spending figures will also draw interest.

The Japanese Yen rose by 0.75% to ¥109.720 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

It’s a busier day, with private sector PMIs to provide the markets with direction.

Following NBS numbers from the weekend, the market’s preferred Caixin manufacturing PMI will set the tone. Over the weekend, the NBS Manufacturing PMI fell from 50.9 to 50.4…

With service sector activity a greater component of the economy, Wednesday’s services PMI will also influence, however.

The Chinese Yuan ended the week up by 0.31% to CNY6.4614 against the U.S Dollar.

Geo-Politics

Russia and China continue to be the main areas of interest for the markets. News updates from the Middle East will also need continued monitoring…

U.S Mortgage Rates Rise but Remain Well Below the 3% Mark

Mortgage rates rose for the first time 5-weeks in the week ending 29th July.

Following a 10 basis points decline from the previous week, 30-year fixed rates increased by 2 basis points to 2.80%.

While on the rise, 30-year mortgage rates have risen just once beyond the 3% Since 21st April.

Compared to this time last year, 30-year fixed rates were down by 19 basis points.

30-year fixed rates were still down by 214 basis points since November 2018’s last peak of 4.94%.

Economic Data from the Week

It was a quiet first half of the week on the U.S economic calendar.

Economic data included house price figures alongside durable goods and consumer confidence numbers.

A pickup in consumer confidence in July and a continued rise in durable goods orders were key in the week.

On the monetary policy front, the FED left policy unchanged mid-week, which was in line with market expectations. While delivering a positive economic outlook, FED Chair Powell continued to downplay any tapering plans.

After a risk-off start to the week, positive IMF economic growth forecasts for the U.S delivered further support to riskier assets in the week.

A continued rise in new COVID-19 cases globally remained a test market risk appetite, however.

Freddie Mac Rates

The weekly average rates for new mortgages as of 29th July were quoted by Freddie Mac to be:

  • 30-year fixed rates rose by 2 basis points to 2.80% in the week. This time last year, rates had stood at 2.99%. The average fee remained unchanged at 0.7 points.
  • 15-year fixed declined by 2 basis points to 2.10% in the week. Rates were down by 41 basis points from 2.51% a year ago. The average fee remained unchanged at 0.7 points.
  • 5-year fixed rates fell by 4 basis point to 2.45%. Rates were down by 49 points from 2.94% a year ago. The average fee fell from 0.4 points to 0.3 points.

According to Freddie Mac,

  • Home owners and buyers continue to benefit from some of the lowest mortgage rates of all-time.
  • Largely due to the current environment, the 30-year fixed-rate remains below 3% for the 4th consecutive week, while the 15-year fixed-rate hits another record low.

Mortgage Bankers’ Association Rates

For the week ending 23rd July, the rates were:

  • Average interest rates for 30-year fixed with conforming loan balances decreased from 3.11% to 3.01%. Points decreased from 0.43 to 0.34 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.
  • Average 30-year fixed mortgage rates backed by FHA decreased from 3.08% to 3.03%. Points rose from 0.31 to 0.35 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.
  • Average 30-year rates for jumbo loan balances decreased from 3.13% to 3.11%. Points decreased from 0.32 to 0.27 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.

Weekly figures released by the Mortgage Bankers Association showed that the Market Composite Index, which is a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased by 5.7% in the week ending 23rd July. In the week prior, the index had fallen by 4.0%.

The Refinance Index increased 9% and was 10% lower than the same week a year ago. The index had fallen by 3% in the previous week.

In the week ending 23rd July, the refinance share of mortgage activity increased from 64.9% to 67.2%. The share had risen from 64.1% to 64.9% in the week prior.

According to the MBA,

  • The 10-year Treasury yield declined last week as investors grew concerned about increasing COVID-19 case counts and the downside risks to the current economic recovery.
  • Refinance applications jumped in response to 30-year fixed rates falling to their lowest level since Feb-2021. The 15-year fell to another record low dating back to 1990.
  • The purchase index fell for the 2nd consecutive week to its lowest level since May-2020 and has now declined on an annual basis for the past 3-months.
  • Potential buyers continue to be put off by extremely high home prices and increased competition.
  • The FHFA reported that May home prices were 18% higher than a year ago, continuing a 7-month upward trend.

For the week ahead

It’s a busier first half of the week. Economic data includes private sector PMIs and ADP nonfarm employment change figures.

We can expect the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and ADP nonfarm employment change figures to be key.

From elsewhere, private sector PMI figures from China and the Eurozone will also influence market risk sentiment,

Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 news updates will remain a key driver, however.

European Equities: A Month in Review – July 2021

The Majors

It was another bullish month for the European majors in July, logging a 6th consecutive monthly gain.

The CAC40 and the EuroStoxx600 rose by 1.61% and by 1.97% respectively, while the DAX30 struggled, rising by just 0.09%.

It was a choppier month for the European majors. Concerns over the resilience of the economic recovery tested support for the majors at the start of the 3rd quarter of the year.

A continued rise in new COVID-19 cases across the world added to the market angst in the month.

Economic data from Germany was also disappointing, pegging the DAX30 back.

Central bank assurance of support, dip buying, corporate earnings, and economic data for France and the Eurozone delivered support, however.

The Stats

Key stats in the month included inflation, consumer spending, consumer sentiment, private sector PMIs, and 2nd quarter GDP numbers.

Once more, the stats were skewed to the positive, delivering support to the broader market.

The Private Sector

The Eurozone’s composite PMI rose from 59.5 to 60.6 in July, according to prelim numbers. Service sector activity picked up, delivering the upside at composite level.

Germany’s Manufacturing PMI increased from 65.1 to 65.6, which was key as private sector activity across France saw slower growth.

As a result of weak numbers from France, the Eurozone’s Manufacturing PMI fell from 63.4 to 62.6.

The German Economy

From Germany, while survey-based numbers were upbeat, non-survey-based data disappointed in the month.

Factory orders (-3.7%) and industrial production (-0.30%) were weak, with Germany’s trade surplus narrowing from 15.9bn to 12.6bn EUR.

German business and consumer confidence also failed to impress in spite of the reopening of the economy. Rising cases of the Delta variant across the world raised uncertainties over the economic outlook in the month.

Late in the month, 1st estimate GDP numbers for the 2nd quarter were also in focus.

The German economy expanded by 1.5%, quarter-on-quarter, partially reversing a 2.1% contraction from the previous quarter. Economists had forecast 1.9% growth.

A positive in the week, however, was a fall in the unemployment rate from 5.9% to 5.7%, which should support consumption.

The Eurozone

For the Eurozone, the economy expanded by 2.00% in the 2nd quarter, reversing a 0.3% contraction from the previous quarter.

The numbers were aligned with the ECB’s optimistic outlook on the economic recovery.

Inflation

In the month, the ECB also revised its price stability target, increasing the inflation target to 2.0%. The move was viewed as dovish, giving the ECB more legroom before having to make a move on the policy front.

In spite of this, the Eurozone’s annual rate of inflation accelerated from 1.9% to 2.2% in July, according to prelim figures.

From the U.S

Economic data delivered mixed results for the markets.

Inflationary pressures continued to build, though following assurances from the FED, failed to spook the markets.

The market’s preferred ISM private sector PMIs for June were disappointing for June, which raised concerns over the economic recovery.

Weekly jobless claim figures also failed to impress, with claims falling to a month low 360k before climbing to a high 419k.

In the final week of the month, consumer confidence and 2nd quarter GDP numbers delivered mixed results.

Consumer confidence picked up in July, suggesting a further increase in consumption. In June, retail sales had risen by a modest 0.5%. On the economic growth front, however, the U.S economy grew by just 6.5% in the quarter, falling well short of a forecasted 8.5%.

Monetary Policy

In July, both the ECB and the FED left monetary policy unchanged. Both central banks delivered assurances of unwavering support, ultimately propping up the European majors in the month.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a bearish month for the auto sector in June. Continental and BMW slid by 7.88% and by 6.09% respectively. Daimler and Volkswagen ended the month down by 0.44% and by 2.49% respectively.

It was also a bearish month for the banks. Deutsche Bank fell by 2.86%, with Commerzbank sliding by 9.03%.

From the CAC, it was a bearish month for the banking sector. BNP Paribas fell by 2.69%, with Credit Agricole and Soc Gen seeing losses of 0.42% and 0.52% respectively.

It was also a bearish month for the auto sector. Renault slid by 6.02%, with Stellantis NV ending the month down by 2.20%.

Air France-KLM fell by a further 3.71%, while Airbus SE rallied by 6.69%.

On the VIX Index

It was a first monthly gain in 6-months for the VIX in July.

Reversing a 5.55% loss from June, the VIX rose by 15.22% to end the month at 18.24.

In July, the S&P500 rallied by 2.27%, with the Dow and the NASDAQ ending the month up by 1.25% and by 1.16% respectively.

VIX 310721 Monthly Chart

The Month Ahead

Following some mixed numbers from Germany, we can expect increased sensitivity to the German numbers in the month ahead.

Private sector PMIs will also remain key, with any fall back in private sector PMIs likely to test support for the majors.

Following the latest spike in inflation, a further pickup in inflationary pressure will also raise questions over consumption. As a key component of the economic recovery, any concerns over consumption would also pressure the majors.

From the U.S, labor market numbers will now be the key area of focus as inflationary pressures continue to pick up.

Consumer confidence and consumption numbers will need to impress to support riskier assets.

From elsewhere, private sector PMIs and trade data from China will also need tracking.

Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 news will also need monitoring. As new cases continued to rise in July, the threat of a vaccine resilient variant remains, which would materially impact the growth outlook.

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – July 31st, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, rallied by 5.43% on Friday. Following a 0.05% gain on Thursday, Bitcoin ended the day at $42,214.5.

A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to a late morning intraday low $38,343.0 before making a move.

Bitcoin fell through the first major support level at $39,331 before rallying to a final hour intraday high $42,299.2.

Bitcoin broke through the first major resistance level at $40,682 and the second major resistance level at $41,328.

More significantly, Bitcoin also broke through the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 to end the day at $42,000 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact, supported by the latest return to $42,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need a sustained fall through the 62% FIB of $27,237 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Friday.

Crypto.com Coin and Polkadot fell by 1.22% and by 1.83% respectively to buck the trend on the day.

It was a bullish day for the rest of the majors, however.

Chainlink surged by 15.16% to lead the way. Bitcoin Cash SV (+3.99%), Ethereum (+3.37%), and Litecoin (+2.86%) also found strong support.

Binance Coin (+1.73%), Cardano’s ADA (+1.99%), and Ripple’s XRP (+0.38%) trailed the front runners, however.

In the current the week, the crypto total market fell to a Monday low $1,379bn before rising to a Friday high $1,640bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $1,610bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance fell to a Monday low 47.07% before jumping to a Wednesday high 49.16%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 49.02%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 0.47% to $42,017.0. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning high $42,398.0 before falling to a low $41,677.5.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

Bitcoin Cash SV was down by 0.99% to buck the early trend and join Bitcoin in the red.

It was a bullish start for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Crypto.com Coin was up by 4.85% to lead the way.

BTCUSD 310721 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall through the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 and the $40,952 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $43,562 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break out from $42,500 levels.

Barring a broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at $45,000 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $44,908.

A fall through the 38.2% FIB and the $40,952 pivot would bring the first major support level at $39,605 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$38,000 levels. The second major support level sits at $36,966.

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – July 31st, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum rose by 3.37% on Friday. Following a 3.59% gain on Thursday, Ethereum ended the day at $2,463.90.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum fall to a late morning intraday low $2,317.51 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $2,301, Ethereum rallied to a late intraday high $2,472.18.

Ethereum broke through the first major resistance level at $2,433 to end the day at $2,470 levels.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down by 0.63% to $2,448.28. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning high $2,468.76 before falling to a low $2,443.35.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 310721 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid the $2,418 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $2,518 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break out from Friday’s high $2,472.18.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another broad-based crypto rally, Ethereum could resistance at $2,650 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $2,573.

A fall through the $2,418 pivot would bring the first major support level at $2,364 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should continue to steer clear of sub-$2,200 levels. The second major support level at $2,263 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2,364

Pivot Level: $2,418

First Major Resistance Level: $2,518

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $3,369

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $2,740

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1,725

Litecoin

Litecoin rose by 2.86% on Friday. Following a 0.74% gain on Thursday, Litecoin ended the day at $145.62.

A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin fall to a late morning intraday low $135.92 before making a move.

Litecoin fell through the first major support level at $138 before rallying to a final our intraday high $145.93.

Litecoin broke through the first major resistance level at $144 to end the day at $145 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down by 0.68% to $144.63. A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $145.84 before falling to a low $144.50.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 310721 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to avoid the $143 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $149 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break out from Friday’s high $145.93.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $150 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended breakout, Litecoin could test resistance at $155. The second major resistance level sits at $153.

A fall through the $143 pivot would bring the first major support level at $139 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Litecoin should continue to steer clear of sub-$135 levels. The second major support level sits at $133.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $139

Pivot Level: $143

First Major Resistance Level: $149

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $178

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $223

62% FIB Retracement Level: $296

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP rose by 0.38% on Friday. Following a 2.39% gain on Thursday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $0.75282.

After a mixed start to the day, Ripple’s XRP fell to a late morning intraday low $0.71252 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.7102, Ripple’s XRP rallied to a late intraday high $0.76948.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.7778, Ripple’s XRP eased back to end the day at sub-$0.76 levels.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 0.62% to $0.74818. A bearish start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP fall from an early morning high $0.75311 to a low $0.74818.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 310721 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to avoid the $0.7449 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.7774 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break out from Friday’s high $0.76948.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another breakout, Ripple’s XRP could test resistance at $0.80 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.8019.

A fall through the $0.7449 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.7204 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.70 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.6880.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.7204

Pivot Level: $0.7449

First Major resistance Level: $0.7774

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.8533

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1.0659

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1.4096

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

European Equities: A Week in Review – 30/07/21

The Majors

It was another choppy week for the majors in the week ending 30th July, with the majors taking another slide to kickstart the week.

The DAX30 fell by 0.80%, while the CAC40 and the EuroStoxx600 ended the week with relatively modest gains of 0.67% and 0.05% respectively.

Concern over the continued rise in new Delta variant cases weighed on the markets and sentiment towards the economic outlook.

Mixed economic data from Germany, in particular, also pressured the markets in the week.

There were a number of support avenues for the majors, however.

Upward growth revisions from the IMF for advanced economies, a dovish FED, and corporate earnings provided support.

GDP numbers from France and the Eurozone were also ahead of forecasts at the end of the week. The data limited the damage in what was a bearish end to the week.

The Stats

Through much of the week, the German economy was in focus.

Business and consumer sentiment figures delivered mixed results. While business sentiment waned in July, consumer confidence remained unchanged, in spite of the reopening of economies.

Unemployment figures from Germany were upbeat. The unemployment fell from 5.9% to 5.7% in July.

Inflationary pressures continued to surge, however, with Germany’s annual rate of inflation accelerating in July to 3.8%.

At the end of the week, 1st estimate GDP numbers and prelim inflation figures were the key stats of the week.

Quarter-on-quarter, the French economy grew by 0.9% versus a forecasted 0.7% in the 2nd quarter.

Germany saw growth of 1.5%, falling short of a forecasted 1.9%. In the 1st quarter, the economy had contracted by 2.1%.

For the Eurozone, the economy grew by 2.0%, coming in ahead of a forecasted 1.5%. The economy had contracted by 0.3% in the previous quarter.

Inflation also ticked up, aligned with member state numbers. According to prelim figures, the Eurozone’s annual rate of inflation accelerated from 1.9% to 2.2% in July, rising above the ECB’s 2% target.

From the U.S

Consumer sentiment and durable goods orders drew attention early in the week.

In June, durable goods orders ex transportation rose by 0.3%, following a 0.5% increase in May.

More significantly was a pickup in consumer confidence in July. The CB Consumer Confidence Index rose from 128.9 to 129.1. Economists had forecast a decline to 126.0.

On Thursday, jobless claims and 2nd quarter GDP numbers were in focus. The stats were skewed to the negative, however.

In the 2nd quarter, the U.S economy grew by 6.5%. This fell well short of a forecasted growth of 8.5%.

Jobless claims also fell short of expectations, with initial jobless claims falling from 424k to 400k. Economists had forecast a decline to 370k.

At the end of the week, personal spending and inflation figures came in ahead of forecasts, however.

Personal spending rose by 1.0% in June, with the annual rate of inflation seeing a pickup from 3.4% to 3.5%.

While the stats were material, the FED monetary policy and press conference were the main events of the week.

In line with market expectations, the FED left policy unchanged. The FED Chair also looked to assure the markets that there would be no near-term moves, the guidance considered dovish.

The Market Movers

From the DAX, it was a mixed week for the auto sector. Daimler rose by 0.32% to buck the trend in the week. Continental slid by 2.49% to lead the way down, however. BMW and Volkswagen also struggled, ending the week down by 1.64% and by 1.34% respectively.

It was also a mixed week for the banking sector. Deutsche Bank rose by 1.18%, while Commerzbank fell by 0.18%.

From the CAC, it was a bullish week for the banks. BNP Paribas and Soc Gen rose by 1.74% and by 1.06% respectively, with Credit Agricole gaining 0.77%.

The French auto sector also found support with Stellantis NV and Renault seeing gains of 2.64% and 2.59% respectively.

Air France-KLM slipped by 0.05%, however, while Airbus rallied by 3.77%.

On the VIX Index

It was a back into the green for the VIX.

In the week ending 30th July, the VIX rose by 6.05%. Partially reversing a 6.78% fall from the previous week, the VIX ended the week at 18.24.

3-days in the green from 5 sessions, which included a 10.13% jump on Tuesday delivered the upside.

For the week, the NASDAQ fell by 1.11%, with the Dow and the S&P500 ending the week down by 0.36% and by 0.37% respectively.

VIX 310721 Daily Chart

The Week Ahead

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

Private sector PMIs for Italy and Spain will be in focus. Finalized numbers for France, Germany, and the Eurozone are also due out.

Any revisions to prelim numbers and Italy’s PMIs will likely draw the greatest interest.

Early in the week, Eurozone and German retail sales figures will also be key, however. The ECB is looking for a consumption driven economic recovery.

Later in the week, the ECB Economic Bulletin and member state trade data will also be in focus.

From the U.S, ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs will be key through the 1st half of the week.

On the labor market front, however, ADP nonfarm employment change, weekly jobless claims, and nonfarm payrolls will also influence.

Away from the economic calendar, corporate earnings and COVID-19 news updates need continued monitoring.

The Weekly Wrap – A Dovish FED and Weak Stats Left the Greenback in the Red

The Stats

It was a busy week on the economic calendar, in the week ending 30th July.

A total of 71 stats were monitored, which was up from 33 stats in the week prior.

Of the 71 stats, 37 came in ahead forecasts, with 30 economic indicators coming up short of forecasts. There were 4 stats that were in line with forecasts in the week.

Looking at the numbers, 42 of the stats reflected an upward trend from previous figures. Of the remaining 29 stats, 27 reflected a deterioration from previous.

For the Greenback, disappointing economic data and a dovish FED left the Dollar in the red. The Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.79% to 92.174. In the previous week, the Dollar had risen by 0.24% to 92.906.

Out of the U.S

Consumer sentiment and durable goods orders drew attention early in the week.

In June, durable goods orders ex transportation rose by 0.3%, following a 0.5% increase in May.

More significantly was a pickup in consumer confidence in July. The CB Consumer Confidence Index rose from 128.9 to 129.1. Economists had forecast a decline to 126.0.

On Thursday, jobless claims and 2nd quarter GDP numbers were in focus. The stats were skewed to the negative, however.

In the 2nd quarter, the U.S economy grew by 6.5%. This fell well short of a forecasted growth of 8.5%.

Jobless claims also fell short of expectations, with initial jobless claims falling from 424k to 400k. Economists had forecast a decline to 370k.

At the end of the week, personal spending and inflation figures came in ahead of forecasts, however.

Personal spending rose by 1.0% in June, with the annual rate of inflation seeing a pickup from 3.4% to 3.5%.

While the stats were material, the FED monetary policy and press conference were the main events of the week.

In line with market expectations, the FED left policy unchanged. The FED Chair also looked to assure the markets that there would be no near-term moves, the guidance considered dovish.

Out of the UK

It was a particularly quiet week. There were no major stats for the markets to consider in the week.

The lack of stats left the Pound in the hands of IMF economic growth forecasts, which delivered Pound support.

In the week, the Pound rose by 1.13% to end the week at $1.3904. In the week prior, the Pound had fallen by 0.14% to $1.3748.

The FTSE100 ended the week up by 0.07%, following a 0.28% gain from the previous week.

Out of the Eurozone

Through much of the week, the German economy was in focus.

Business and consumer sentiment figures delivered mixed results. While business sentiment waned in July, consumer confidence remained unchanged, in spite of the reopening of economies.

Unemployment figures from Germany were upbeat. The unemployment fell from 5.9% to 5.7% in July.

Inflationary pressures continued to surge, however, with Germany’s annual rate of inflation accelerating in July to 3.8%.

At the end of the week, 1st estimate GDP numbers and prelim inflation figures were the key stats of the week.

Quarter-on-quarter, the French economy grew by 0.9% versus a forecasted 0.7% in the 2nd quarter.

Germany saw growth of 1.5%, falling short of a forecasted 1.9%. In the 1st quarter, the economy had contracted by 2.1%.

For the Eurozone, the economy grew by 2.0%, coming in ahead of a forecasted 1.5%. The economy had contracted by 0.3% in the previous quarter.

Inflation also ticked up, aligned with member state numbers. According to prelim figures, the Eurozone’s annual rate of inflation accelerated from 1.9% to 2.2% in July, rising above the ECB’s 2% target.

For the week, the EUR rose by 0.84% to $1.1870. In the week prior, the EUR had fallen by 0.30% to $1.1771.

The DAX30 fell by 0.67%, while the CAC40 and the EuroStoxx600 ended the week up by 0.67% and by 0.05% respectively.

For the Loonie

It was a relatively quiet week on the economic data front.

Inflation and GDP numbers were the key stats of the week.

In June, the annual rate of inflation softened from 2.8% to 2.7%, bucking the trend seen across key economies.

The Canadian economy also continued to struggle in May, with the economy contracting by 0.3%. The economy had contracted by 0.5% in April.

In the week ending 30th July, the Loonie rose by 0.71% to C$1.2475. In the week prior, the Loonie had risen by 0.39% to C$1.2564.

Elsewhere

It was a mixed week for the Aussie Dollar and the Kiwi Dollar.

While the Aussie Dollar fell by 0.30% to $0.7344, the Kiwi Dollar ended the week flat at $0.6974.

For the Aussie Dollar

Inflation was the main area of focus. The stats were mixed, however, pegging the Aussie Dollar back.

In the 2nd quarter, the annual rate of inflation surged from 1.1% to 3.8%. The trimmed mean rate of inflation picked up from 1.1% to 1.6%, however.

Wholesale inflation also saw a pickup but at a softer pace than anticipated.

Australia’s annual wholesale rate of inflation ticked up from 0.2% to 2.2%. Economists had forecast a rate of 3.5%.

For the Kiwi Dollar

It was a busier week, with trade and consumer and business confidence in focus.

Trade data disappointed, with the trade surplus narrowing from NZ$498m to NZ$261m in June. The narrowing stemmed from a more marked increase in imports, however, rather than a fall exports, which limited the damage.

Business and consumer confidence figures were also skewed to the negative. The ANZ Business Confidence Index fell from -0.60 to -3.80, with the ANZ Consumer Confidence Index falling from 114 to 113.1.

The week numbers were not enough to sink the Kiwi.

For the Japanese Yen

It was another relatively busy week.

Early in the week, private sector PMIs were in focus. Later in the week industrial production and retail sales also drew attention on Friday.

While prelim private sector PMIs softened slightly in July, industrial production and retail sales impressed.

Industrial production jumped by 6.2% in June, reversing a 6.5% slide from May. More significantly, retail sales increased by 3.1%, reversing a 0.4% decline from May.

The Japanese Yen rose by 0.75% to ¥109.72 against the U.S Dollar. In the week prior, the Yen had fallen by 0.44% to ¥110.550.

Out of China

It was a quiet week on the economic data front. There were no major stats from China for the markets to consider.

In the week ending 30th July, the Chinese Yuan rose by 0.31% to CNY6.4614. In the week prior, the Yuan had ended the week down by 0.03% to CNY6.4813.

The CSI300 and the Hang Seng ended the week down by 4.98% and by 5.46% respectively.

Bitcoin Price Prediction – Failure to Hit $40,500 Would Bring sub-$38,000 into Play

After a bullish day for the crypto majors on Thursday, it has been a bearish morning for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market this morning.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin, BTC to USD, was down by 3.47% to $38,646.8.

A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning high $40,248.0 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $40,682, Bitcoin slid to a late morning intraday low $38,343.0.

Bitcoin fell through the first major support level at $39,331 and the second major support level at $38,626.

Steering clear of sub-$38,000 levels, Bitcoin moved back through the 2nd major support level going into the afternoon.

BTCUSD 300721 Hourly Chart

The Rest of the Pack

It has been a bearish morning for the broader crypto market.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 3.91% to lead the way down, with Litecoin (-3.64%) also struggling.

Binance Coin (-2.46%), Bitcoin Cash SV (-1.98%), Cardano’s ADA (-2.01%), Chainlink (-1.53%), Crypto.com Coin (-1.62%), and Ethereum (-1.92%) were not far behind, however.

Through the early hours, the crypto total market rose to an early morning high $1,569bn before falling to a low $1,495bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $1,509bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose to an early high 48.47% before falling to a low 48.07%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 48.12%.

For the Afternoon Ahead

Bitcoin would need to move back through the first major support level and the $39,977 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $40,682 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Bitcoin to break back through to $40,000 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally through the afternoon, the first major resistance level at $40,682 would likely limit any upside.

In the event of a breakout, however, Bitcoin should target the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $41,328.

Failure to move back through the first major support level at $39,331 pivot would bring the second major support level at $38,626 back into play.

Barring an extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$38,000 levels, however. The third major support level sits at $37,275.

Looking beyond the support and resistance levels, we saw the 50 EMA narrow on the 100 and 200 EMAs this morning. This supported the downside through the morning.

A further narrowing of the 50 on 100 and 200 EMAs this afternoon would bring sub-$38,000 levels into play.

Key going into the afternoon will be for Bitcoin to avoid a fall back through the morning low $38,343.0 to sub-$38,000 levels.

An Economic Data Deluge Delivers EUR Support as the Eurozone Economy Bounces Back

Following interest in the German economy through much of the week, it was the Eurozone and member state economies in focus this morning.

The numbers were skewed to the positive, supporting market optimism.

Member States

In the 2nd quarter, the French economy expanded by 0.9%, quarter-on-quarter, reversing a 0.1% contraction in the previous quarter.

The German economy expanded by 1.5%, partially reversing a 2.1% contraction from the 1st quarter.

Italy and Spain also saw growth in the quarter.

In the 2nd quarter, the Spanish economy grew by 2.8%, reversing a 0.4% contraction from the 1st quarter. Stats from Italy were also positive, with the economy growing by 2.7%. In the 1st quarter, the economy had grown by just 0.2%, quarter-on-quarter.

The Eurozone

In the 2nd quarter, the Eurozone economy grew by 2.0%, quarter-on-quarter, reversing a 0.3% contraction from the previous quarter.

Year-on-year, the economy grew by 13.7% after having contracted by 1.3% in the previous quarter. Economists had forecast a 12.6% increase.

Inflation figures were also in focus, with the annual rate of inflation ticking up from 1.9% to 2.2%. Economists had forecast an annual rate of inflation of 2.0%.

The pickup in inflationary pressures muted unemployment figures for the Eurozone, however. In June, the Eurozone’s unemployment rate slipped from 8.0% to 7.7%. Economists had forecast a fall to 7.8%.

While the economy was in recovery, the need for a consumer driven recovery remains in question as inflationary pressures build.

Market Impact

In response to today’s stats, the EUR fell to a low $1.18751 before climbing to a post-stat and current day high $1.19087.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.09% to $1.18974.

EURUSD 300721 Hourly Chart

Next Up

Personal spending, inflation, and consumer sentiment figures from the U.S.

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – July 30th, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, rose by 0.05% on Thursday. Following a 1.33% gain from Wednesday, Bitcoin ended the day at $40,036.1.

A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning intraday low $39,272.0 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $38,913, Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high $40,623.0.

Falling short the first major resistance level at $41,010, however, Bitcoin fell back to sub-$39,500 levels before finding support. A late move back through to $40,000 reversed losses from the day.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact, supported by the latest return to $40,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need a sustained fall through the 62% FIB of $27,237 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Thursday.

Cardano’s ADA slipped by 0.15% to buck the trend.

It was a bullish day for the rest of the majors, however.

Polkadot rallied by 4.94% to lead the way, with Crypto.com Coin (+2.33%), Ethereum (+3.59%), and Ripple’s XRP (+2.39%) also finding strong support.

Binance Coin (+1.00%), Bitcoin Cash SV (+0.41%), Chainlink (+1.36%), and Litecoin (+0.74%) saw modest gains, however.

In the current the week, the crypto total market fell to a Monday low $1,379bn before rising to a Monday high $1,606bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $1,553bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance fell to a Monday low 47.07% before jumping to a Wednesday high 49.16%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 48.44%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 0.09% to $40,071.0. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning low $39,779.0 before rising to a high $40,122.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

Binance Coin (-0.15%), Chainlink (-0.06%), Polkadot (-0.50%), and Ripple’s XRP (-0.33%) saw early red.

It was a bullish start for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Crypto.com Coin was up by 0.81% to lead the way.

BTCUSD 300721 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall back through the $39,977 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $40,682 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break out from Thursday’s high $40,623.0.

Barring a broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $41,328.

Failure to avoid a fall back through the $39,977 pivot would bring the first major support level at $39,331 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of the second major support level at $38,626.

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – July 30th, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum rose by 3.59% on Thursday. Following a 0.01% gain on Wednesday, Ethereum ended the day at $2,383.32.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum fall to an early morning intraday low $2,267.78 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $2,248, Ethereum rallied to a late intraday high $2,399.99.

Ethereum broke through the first major resistance level at $2,351 to end the day at $2,380 levels.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down by 0.45% to $2,372.50. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning high $2,389.54 before falling to a low $2,365.84.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 300721 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid the $2,350 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $2,433 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break out from Thursday’s high $2,399.99.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another broad-based crypto rally, Ethereum could resistance at $2,500 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $2,483.

A fall through the $2,350 pivot would bring the first major support level at $2,301 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should continue to steer clear of sub-$2,200 levels. The second major support level at $2,218 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2,301

Pivot Level: $2,350

First Major Resistance Level: $2,433

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $3,369

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $2,740

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1,725

Litecoin

Litecoin rose by 0.74% on Thursday. Following a 4.24% rally on Wednesday, Litecoin ended the day at $141.52.

A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin fall to an early morning intraday low $136.63 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $135, Litecoin rallied to a late intraday high $142.97.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $144, however, Litecoin slipped back to end the day at sub-$142 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down by 0.66% to $140.59. A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $142.00 before falling to a low $140.59.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 300721 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to avoid the $140 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $144 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break out from Thursday’s high $142.97.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $145 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended breakout, Litecoin could test resistance at $150. The second major resistance level sits at $147.

A fall through the $140 pivot would bring the first major support level at $138 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Litecoin should continue to steer clear of sub-$130 levels. The second major support level at $134 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $138

Pivot Level: $140

First Major Resistance Level: $144

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $178

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $223

62% FIB Retracement Level: $296

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP rose by 2.39% on Thursday. Following Wednesday’s 13.80% breakout, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $0.74995.

After a mixed start to the day, Ripple’s XRP fell to a mid-day intraday low $0.69828 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.6592, Ripple’s XRP rallied to a final hour intraday high $0.76596.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.7806, Ripple’s XRP eased back to end the day at sub-$0.75 levels.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 1.67% to $0.73739. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning high $0.75261 before falling to a low $0.73739.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 300721 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to move back through the $0.7381 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.7778 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break out from Thursday’s high $0.76596.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another breakout, Ripple’s XRP could test resistance at $0.80 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.8057.

Failure to move back through the $0.7381 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.7102 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.70 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.6704.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.7102

Pivot Level: $0.7381

First Major resistance Level: $0.7778

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.8533

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1.0659

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1.4096

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

A Busy Economic Calendar Puts the EUR, the Loonie, and the Greenback in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It was a busy quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Kiwi Dollar and the Japanese Yen were in action in the early part of the day. Later this morning, the Aussie Dollar will also be in focus.

For the Kiwi Dollar

Consumer confidence and housing sector data were in focus this morning.

In June, building permits rose by 3.8%, reversing a 2.40% slide in May. Economists had forecast a 1.10% decline.

Of greater significance, however, was a modest fall in consumer confidence.

In July, the ANZ Consumer Confidence Index fell from 114.0 to 113.1. Economists had forecast a decline to 113.0.

According to the July survey,

  • A good time to buy a major household item rose 2 points to +24, a fresh post-COVID high.
  • Sentiment towards the finances in a year’s time also improved. A net 23% expect to be better off this time next year, up 1 point.
  • This was in contrast to sentiment towards current financial situations, which fell 6 points to +8%.
  • Views towards the economic outlook were also mixed.
  • Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook fell 5 points to -2%, while the 5-year outlook rose by 2 points to +12%.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.70039 to $0.70162 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.01% to $0.7011.

For the Japanese Yen

Industrial production increased by 6.2% in June, according to prelim figures, reversing most of a 6.5% slide from May. Economists had forecast a 5.1% increase.

According to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry,

  • Industries that mainly contributed to the increase were motor vehicles, production machinery, and electronic parts & devices.
  • Industries that mainly contributed to the decrease were transport equipment (excl. motor vehicles) and ceramics, stone, & clay products.

According to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, retail sales increased 3.1%, reversing a 0.4% decline from May. Economists had forecast a 3.6% slide.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥109.416 to ¥109.402 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.05% to ¥109.420 against the U.S Dollar.

For the Aussie Dollar

Wholesale inflation and private sector credit figures will draw interest.

On the inflation front, the annual wholesale rate of inflation is forecast to accelerate from 0.2% to 3.5%.

Quarter-on-quarter, economists have forecast for the producer price index to rise by 2.1%, following a 0.4% increase in the 1st quarter.

At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was flat at $0.7396.

The Day Ahead

For the EUR

It’s a particularly busy day ahead on the economic data front, with the 2nd quarter GDP numbers, consumer spending, and inflation in focus.

French, German, and Eurozone 1st estimate GDP numbers for the 2nd quarter will be the key stats of the day, however.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.03% to $1.1891.

For the Pound

It’s yet another particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats leaves the IMF’s growth forecasts for the UK, delivered earlier in the week, to continue to resonate.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.05% to $1.3966.

Across the Pond

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar.

Personal spending and inflation figures for June together with finalized consumer sentiment figures for July will be in focus.

Barring any marked revisions to prelim consumer sentiment figures, expect the personal spending and inflation figures to be key.

Following the FED’s policy decision on Wednesday, any FOMC member chatter will also need monitoring.

On Thursday, the U.S Dollar Spot Index ended the day down by 0.50% to 91.864.

For the Loonie

It’s also a busy day on the economic calendar. Wholesale inflation, RMPI, and GDP numbers will be in focus.

With a lack of stats through much of the week, expect Loonie sensitivity to today’s numbers.

Away from the economic calendar, crude oil prices and market risk sentiment will also influence.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.01% to C$1.2449 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

European Equities: 2nd Quarter GDP and July Inflation in Focus

Economic Calendar

Thursday, 29th July

German Unemployment Change/Rate JUL

German Inflation Rate MoM Prel JUL

Friday, 30th July

French GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q2

French Household Consumption MoM JUN

German GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2

French Inflation Rate YoY Prel JUL

Spanish GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2

Italian GDP Growth Rate Adv Q2

Eurozone Core Inflation Rate Flash JUL

Eurozone GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2

Italian Inflation Rate MoM Prel JUL

Eurozone Inflation Rate Flash JUL

The Majors

It was another bullish day for the European majors on Thursday.

The CAC40 rose by 0.37%, with the DAX30 and the EuroStoxx600 ending the day up by 0.45% and by 0.46% respectively.

Market reaction to Wednesday’s dovish FED and economic data from the Eurozone and the U.S provided the majors with support.

From the Eurozone, German unemployment figures impressed, while stats from the U.S looked to have put a near-term lid on any need for the FED to make a move. U.S GDP and jobless claims figures were good enough, however, to support riskier assets and not spook the markets.

Support also came from corporate earnings releases on the day.

The Stats

The German economy was in focus once more on Thursday, with unemployment and inflation the key stats of the day.

In July, unemployment slid by 91k, following a 39k decline in June. As a result of the decline, the unemployment rate fell from 5.9% to 5.7%. Economists had forecast a 22k decline and for the unemployment rate to fall to 5.8%.

On the inflation front, Germany’s annual rate of inflation accelerated from 2.3% to 3.8% in July, according to prelim figures. Economists had forecast a pickup to 3.2%.

Month-on-month, consumer prices rose by 0.9%, following a 0.4% increase in June. Economists had forecast a 0.4% rise.

From the U.S

1st estimate GDP numbers for the 2nd quarter were out along with the weekly jobless claim figures.

In the 2nd quarter, the U.S economy grew by 6.5% in the 2nd quarter, ticking up from a 1st quarter 6.4%. Economists had forecast 8.5% growth in the quarter, however.

On the employment front, U.S jobless claims fell from 424k to 400k in the week ending 23rd July. Economists had forecast a decline to 370k.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a bullish day for the auto sector on Thursday. Daimler rallied by 2.80%, with BMW and Volkswagen ending the day up by 1.40% and by 1.28% respectively. Continental saw a more modest 0.80% gain on the day.

It was also a bullish day for the banks. Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank ended the day up by 3.23% and by 1.74% respectively.

From the CAC, it was a bullish day for the banks. BNP Paribas gained 1.78%, with Soc Gen and Credit Agricole rising by 1.55% and by 1.38% respectively.

It was also a bullish day for the French auto sector. Stellantis NV rallied by 3.36%, with Renault ending the day up by 0.62%.

Air France-KLM and Airbus SE also found further support, rising by 1.06% and by 0.61% respectively.

On the VIX Index

It was a 2nd consecutive day in the red for the VIX on Thursday, marking the 2nd decline of the week.

Following a 5.42% fall on Wednesday, the VIX declined by 3.33% to end the day at 17.70.

The NASDAQ rose by 0.11%, with the Dow and the S&P500 ending the day up by 0.44% and by 0.42% respectively.

VIX 300721 Daily Chart

The Day Ahead

It’s a particularly busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Eurozone and member state 1st estimate GDP numbers for the 2nd quarter are due out later today.

Expect plenty of interest in the numbers. We have seen concerns over the resilience of the economic recovery test support for the majors of late. Weaker than expected numbers would weigh.

Prelim inflation and consumer spending figures are also due out but will likely play 2nd fiddle to the GDP numbers.

From the U.S, inflation and personal spending figures will also influence late in the session.

Away from the economic calendar, corporate earnings and COVID-19 news updates will also need continued monitoring.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was up by 21 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Bitcoin Price Prediction – Avoiding a Return to sub-$40,000 Would Bring $41,500 into Play

After a bullish day for the crypto majors on Wednesday, it has been a mixed morning for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market this morning.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin, BTC to USD, was up by 0.21%to $40,100.0.

A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning low $39,272.0 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $38,913, Bitcoin rose to a late morning current day high $40,623.0.

Bitcoin fell short of Wednesday’s high $40,900.0 and the first major resistance level at $41,010.

BTCUSD 290721 Hourly Chart

The Rest of the Pack

It has been yet another mixed morning for the broader crypto market.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 3.47%, giving up some of Wednesday’s 13.8% rally.

Bitcoin Cash SV (-0.10%), Cardano’s ADA (-0.66%), Chainlink (-0.36%), Litecoin (-0.51%) also struggled.

It has been a relatively bullish morning for the rest of the majors, however.

Through the morning, Polkadot was up by 1.46% to lead the way, with Crypto.com Coin gaining 1.33%.

Binance Coin (+0.16%) and Ethereum (+0.48%) also found support.

Through the early hours, the crypto total market fell to an early morning low $1,507bn before rising to a high $1,552bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $1,538bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance fell to an early low 48.90% before rising to a high 49.15%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 48.95%.

For the Afternoon Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall back through the $39,907 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $41,010 back into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Bitcoin to break out from the morning high $40,623.0.

Barring an extended crypto rally through the afternoon, expect resistance at $40,500 to pin Bitcoin back.

In the event of a breakout, however, Bitcoin should target $42,500 levels before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $42,004. Bitcoin would need plenty of support, however, to breakout from the 38.2% FIB of $41,592.

A fall back through the $39,907 pivot would bring the first major support level at $38,913 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$38,000 levels, however. The second major support level sits at $37,810.

Looking beyond the support and resistance levels, we saw the 50 EMA hold its ground against the 100 and 200 EMAs this morning. This supported the modest upside through the morning.

A widening of the 50 from 100 and 200 EMAs this afternoon would bring the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 into play.

Key going into the afternoon will be for Bitcoin to avoid a fall back through the pivot to sub-$39,500 levels.

German Unemployment Slides, Delivering EUR Support

Following German business and consumer sentiment figures this week, German unemployment was in focus this morning.

Unemployment

In July, unemployment slid by 91k, following a 39k decline in June. As a result of the decline, the unemployment rate fell from 5.9% to 5.7%. Economists had forecast a 22k decline and for the unemployment rate to fall to 5.8%.

Market Impact

Ahead of today’s unemployment figures, the EUR had fallen to a pre-stat and current day low $1.18388 before visiting $1.186 levels.

In response to today’s stats, the EUR fell to a post-stat low $1.18647 before climbing to a post-stat and current day high $1.18801.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.27% to $1.18743.

EURUSD 290721 Hourly Chart

Next Up

Prelim inflation figures from Germany ahead of 2nd quarter GDP and weekly jobless claims figures from the U.S. It could get choppy for the EUR if initial jobless claims tumble and GDP numbers beat forecasts…

Economic Data from the Eurozone and the U.S Put the EUR and the Dollar in the Spotlight

Earlier in the Day:

It was another relatively quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Kiwi Dollar was in action in the early part of the day.

For the Kiwi Dollar

Business confidence was in focus this morning.

In July, the ANZ Business Confidence Index fell from -0.6 to -3.8%. Economists had forecast an increased to 1.2%.

According to the latest ANZ Report,

  • While business confidence was down, firms’ own activity rose by 5 points to +32%.
  • Investment intentions increased by 7 points to 25.5%, while employment intentions eased by 1 point.
  • Cost expectations rose by 5 points to a net 86.2%. A net 62.8% of respondents intend to raise their prices, up 6 points. General inflation expectations rose by 19 bps to 2.41%.
  • Profit expectations increased by 2 points to 5.8%, however.
  • Export intentions rose by a modest 1 point to 13.4%.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.69584 to $0.69545 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.07% to $0.6954.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.16% to ¥109.730 against the U.S Dollar, while the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.15% to $0.7365.

The Day Ahead

For the EUR

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic data front, with the German economy back in the spotlight.

Unemployment and inflation figures will be in focus later today.  Expect plenty of interest in the numbers, with market sensitivity to inflation lingering despite the ECB’s latest shift in its price objective.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.03% to $1.1848.

For the Pound

It’s yet another particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats to provide the Pound with direction.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.06% to $1.3911.

Across the Pond

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar.

1st estimate GDP numbers for the 2nd quarter and weekly jobless claims figures will be in focus later today.

We can expect plenty of interest in today’s numbers. Expect any sharp increase in jobless claims to overshadow positive GDP numbers, however.

At the time of writing, the U.S Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.09% to 92.235.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar, with no material stats from Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk sentiment on the day.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.05% to C$1.2522 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EOS, Stellar’s Lumen, and Tron’s TRX – Daily Analysis – July 29th, 2021

EOS

EOS rallied by 4.15% on Wednesday. Following a 2.31% gain on Tuesday, EOS ended the day at $3.9186.

A mixed start to the day saw EOS fall to a mid-morning intraday low $3.6852 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $3.6471, EOS rallied to a late morning intraday high $4.0191.

EOS broke through the first major resistance level at $3.8344 and the second major resistance level at $3.9060.

Falling short of the third major resistance level at $4.0933, however, EOS fell back through the resistance levels before a late rebound.

Late in the day, EOS broke back through the first and second major resistance levels to end the day at $3.91 levels.

At the time of writing, EOS was down by 2.64% to $3.8151. A mixed start to the day saw EOS rise to an early morning high $3.9436 before falling to a low $3.8079.

EOS left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

EOSUSD 290721 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

EOS would need to move back through the $3.8743 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $4.0634 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for EOS to break out from Wednesday’s high $4.0191.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, EOS could test resistance at $4.15. The second major resistance level sits at $4.20282.

Failure to move back through the $3.8743 pivot would bring the first major support level at $3.7295 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, EOS should steer clear of sub-$3.70 levels. The second major support level sits at $3.5404.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $3.7295

First Major resistance Level: 4.0634

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $6.52

38% FIB Retracement Level: $9.68

62% FIB Retracement Level: $14.77

Stellar’s Lumen

Stellar’s Lumen rose by 2.70% on Wednesday. Following a 1.00% gain on Tuesday, Stellar’s Lumen ended the at $0.2701.

A mixed start saw Stellar’s Lumen fall to a mid-morning intraday low $0.2582 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.2528, Stellar’s Lumen rallied to a late morning intraday high $0.2816 before hitting reverse.

Stellar’s Lumen broke through the first major resistance level at $0.2718 and the second major resistance level at $0.2806.

The reversal saw Stellar’s Lumen slide back through the major resistance levels to sub-$0.27 before ending the day at $0.27 levels.

At the time of writing, Stellar’s Lumen was down by 2.84% to $0.2624. A mixed start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen rise to an early morning high $0.2708 before falling to a low $0.2621.

Stellar’s Lumen left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XLMUSD 290721 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Stellar’s Lumen would need to move back through the $0.2700 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.2817 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Stellar’s Lumen to break back through to $0.28 levels.

Barring an extended rally, the first major resistance level and Wednesday’s high $0.2816 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another broad-based crypto rally, Stellar’s Lumen could test resistance at $0.30 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.2934.

Failure to move back through the $0.2700 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.2583 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Stellar’s Lumen should steer clear of sub-$0.25 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.2466.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.2583

First Major Resistance Level: $0.2817

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3402

38% FIB Retracement Level: $0.4277

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.5690

Tron’s TRX

Tron’s TRX rose by 1.37% on Wednesday. Following a 2.60% gain on Tuesday, Tron’s TRX ended the day at $0.06084.

After a mixed start to the day, Tron’s TRX rose to a late morning intraday high $0.06225 before hitting reverse.

Tron’s TRX broke through the first major resistance level at $0.06186 before sliding to a late afternoon intraday low $0.05937.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.05746, however, Tron’s TRX broke back through to $0.060 levels to end the day in positive territory.

At the time of writing, Tron’s TRX was down by 2.33% to $0.05942. A mixed start to the day saw Tron’s TRX rise to an early morning high $0.06123 before falling to a low $0.05888.

Tron’s TRX tested the first major support level at $0.05939 early on.

TRXUSD 290721 Hourly Chart

For the Day Ahead

Tron’s TRX would need to move back through the $0.06082 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.06227 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Tron’s TRX to move back through to $0.062 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Wednesday’s high $0.06225 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Tron’s TRX could test the second major resistance level at $0.06370.

Failure to move back through the $0.06082 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.05939 back into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Tron’s TRX should steer clear of the second major support level at $0.05794.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.05939

First Major Resistance Level: $0.06227

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0787

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0989

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1316

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

Thanks, Bob

Dogecoin – Daily Tech Analysis –July 29th, 2021

Dogecoin

Dogecoin slipped by 0.05% on Wednesday. Following a 1.08% gain on Tuesday, Dogecoin ended the day at $0.2058.

After a mixed the start to the day, Dogecoin rose to a late morning intraday high $0.2138 before hitting reverse.

Dogecoin broke through the first major resistance level at $0.2119 before falling to a late afternoon intraday low $0.2017.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.1975, Dogecoin returned $0.2050 levels to limit the downside.

At the time of writing, Dogecoin was down by 0.49% to $0.2048. A mixed start to the day saw Dogecoin rise to an early morning high $0.2063 before falling to a low $0.2044.

Dogecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

DOGEUSD 290721 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Dogecoin would need to move through the $0.2071 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.2125 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Dogecoin to break back through to $0.21 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Wednesday’s high $0.2138 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another breakout, Dogecoin could test resistance at $0.22 levels before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.2192.

Failure to move through the $0.2071 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.2004 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Dogecoin should steer clear of sub-$0.19 levels. The second major support level at $0.1950 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.2004

Pivot Level: $0.2071

First Major Resistance Level: $0.2125

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3016

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3859

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.5221

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – July 29th, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum rose by 0.01% on Wednesday. Following a 3.23% gain from Tuesday, Ethereum ended the day at $2,300.42.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum fall to a mid-morning intraday low $2,245.10 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $2,195, Ethereum rallied to a late morning intraday high $2,347.88.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $2,364, however, Ethereum briefly fell back to sub-$2,300 and into the red.

A late move back through to $2,300 levels prevented a loss on the day.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down by 0.42% to $2,290.87. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning high $2,301.39 before falling to a low $2,286.48.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 290721 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to move back through the $2,298 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $2,351 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break out from Wednesday’s high $2,347.88.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another broad-based crypto rally, Ethereum could resistance at $2,400 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $2,401.

Failure to move back through the $2,298 pivot would bring the first major support level at $2,248 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should continue to steer clear of sub-$2,100 levels. The second major support level at $2,195 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2,248

Pivot Level: $2,298

First Major Resistance Level: $2,351

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $3,369

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $2,740

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1,725

Litecoin

Litecoin rose by 4.24% on Wednesday. Following a 2.78% gain on Tuesday, Litecoin ended the day at $140.47.

A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin fall to a mid-morning intraday low $132.43 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $130, Litecoin rallied to a late intraday high $142.07.

Litecoin broke through the first major resistance level at $138 and the second major resistance level at $140.

A late pullback, however, saw Litecoin briefly fall back through the second major resistance level before ending the day at $140 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down by 0.96% to $139.12. A bearish start to the day saw Litecoin fall from an early morning high $140.50 to a low $138.82.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 290721 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to avoid the $138 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $144 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break out from Wednesday’s high $142.07.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $145 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended breakout, Litecoin could test resistance at $150. The second major resistance level sits at $148.

A fall through the $138 pivot would bring the first major support level at $135 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Litecoin should continue to steer clear of sub-$125 levels. The second major support level at $129 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $135

Pivot Level: $138

First Major Resistance Level: $144

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $178

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $223

62% FIB Retracement Level: $296

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP surged by 13.80% on Wednesday. Following a 3.44% gain on Tuesday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $0.73364.

Tracking the broader market, Ripple’s XRP fell to a mid-morning intraday low $0.63183 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.6211, Ripple’s XRP rallied to a late morning intraday high $0.75324.

Ripple’s XRP broke through the day’s major resistance levels to end the day at $0.73 levels.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 1.31% to $0.72400. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning high $0.73927 before falling to a low $0.72174.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 290721 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to avoid the $0.7062 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.7806 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break out from Wednesday’s high $0.75324.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another breakout, Ripple’s XRP could test resistance at $0.80 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.8276.

A fall through the $0.7062 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.6592 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.60 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.5848.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.6592

Pivot Level: $0.7062

First Major resistance Level: $0.7806

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.8533

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1.0659

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1.4096

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob