Inflation Figures and Trade Data from the Eurozone Deliver Mixed Results for the EUR

It was a busier morning on the economic calendar, with finalized inflation figures for France, Germany, and Italy in focus. Trade data from the Eurozone was the key stat of the day, however.

Eurozone Trade

In April, the Eurozone’s trade surplus narrowed from €15.8bn to €10.9bn. Economists had forecast a narrowing to €14.4bn.

According to Eurostat,

  • Exports to the rest of the world was up 43.2% to €135.3bn in April when compared with April 2020.
  • Imports from the rest of the world increased 37.4%, year-on-year, to €133.0bn.
  • In April 2020, the trade surplus had stood at €2.3bn.
  • Intra-euro area trade rose to €178.9bn in April 2021, up by 61.9% compared with April 2020.

Inflation

In May, German consumer prices increased by 0.5%, which was in line with forecasts. German consumer prices had risen by 0.7% in April.

From France, consumer prices increased by 0.3% in May, which was also in line with forecasts. In April, consumer prices had risen by 0.1%.

In Italy, consumer prices stalled in May after having risen by 0.4% in April. This was also in line with forecasts.

While the numbers were mixed for the month of May, all three member states reported in a pickup in the annual rate of inflation.

Germany’s annual rate of inflation accelerated from 2.0% to 2.5%, with France’s ticking up from 1.2% to 1.4%.

In spite of consumer prices stalling in May, Italy’s annual rate of inflation picked up from 1.1% to 1.3%.

Market Impact

Ahead of the trade data, the EUR had fallen to a pre-stat and current day low $1.21139 before rising to a pre-stat high $1.21281.

In response to the inflation and trade data, the EUR rose to a post-stat and current day high $1.21474 before falling back to a post-stat low $1.21208.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by just 0.01% to $1.21225.

EURUSD 150621 Hourly Chart

Next Up

Retail sales, wholesale inflation, industrial production, and manufacturing numbers from the U.S. Expect the retail sales figures to be key…

A Busy Economic Calendar Puts the EUR, the Pound, and the Greenback in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It was another quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar was in action this morning.

For the Aussie Dollar

House price figures and the RBA meeting minutes were in focus this morning.

In the 1st quarter, house prices increased by 5.4% year-on-year, coming up short of a forecasted 5.5% rise. House prices had been up by 3.0% in the 4th quarter of last year.

Salient points from the RBA meeting minutes included:

  • Inflation and wage pressures remained subdued, despite the strong recovery in the economy and employment.
  • Borrowing rates for households and businesses on outstanding loans had continued to drift lower and were also at historical lows.
  • The Bank’s policy package had contributed to a lower exchange rate than would otherwise have been the case.
  • Monetary policy would likely need to remain highly accommodative for some time yet.
  • Government bond purchases discussed and the Board would decide upon future purchases at the July meet that comes ahead of the completion of the second $100 billion of purchases in early September.
  • Options include:
    • Ceasing purchasing bonds in September.
    • Repeating $100 billion of purchases for another 6-months.
    • Scaling back the amount purchased or spread the purchases over a longer period of time.
    • Move to a more frequent review of bond purchases, based on the flow of data and the economic outlook.
  • The Board would not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2-3% target range. For this to occur, wages growth would need to be materially higher than it currently is.
  • This would require significant gains in employment and a sustained return to a tight labor market.
  • Members view these conditions unlikely until 2024 at the earliest.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.77111 to $0.77027 upon release of the figures and the minutes. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.13% to $0.7702.

Elsewhere

Through the early hours, the Japanese Yen was flat ¥110.07 against the U.S Dollar, while the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.14% to $0.7134.

The Day Ahead

For the EUR

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic data front. Finalized inflation figures for Germany, France, and Italy are due out along with trade data for the Eurozone.

Barring marked revisions from prelims, however, we would expect the trade data for April to have greater influence.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.02% to $1.2117.

For the Pound

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar.

Employment figures are due out later this morning. Expect April’s unemployment rate and May’s claimant count to have the greatest impact on the Pound.

Away from the economic calendar, greater certainty over the timing of the UK’s full reopening is going to be needed to support the Pound.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.07% to $1.4102.

Across the Pond

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include retail sales, wholesale inflation, and industrial production figures.

Following the marked pickup in inflationary pressures, expect the retail sales figures to be key.

Other stats due out include inventory figures for April and the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index numbers for June. Barring particularly dire numbers, however, these should have limited impact on the Dollar and broader market risk sentiment.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was flat at to 90.520.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic data front. Housing sector data is due out later today.

We don’t expect the numbers to have much influence on the Loonie, however, leaving the Loonie in the hands of market risk sentiment.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.02% to C$1.2147 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EOS, Stellar’s Lumen, and Tron’s TRX – Daily Analysis – June 15th, 2021

EOS

EOS rose by 4.01% on Monday. Following a 5.35% rally on Sunday, EOS ended the day at $5.2979.

A mixed start to the day saw EOS fall to a late morning intraday low $4.9516 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $4.7973, EOS rallied to a late afternoon intraday high $5.3296.

EOS broke through the first major resistance level at $5.2465 before easing back to sub-$5.20 levels.

Finding late support, however, EOS broke back through the first major resistance level to end the day at $5.29 levels.

At the time of writing, EOS was up by 0.42% to $5.3202. A mixed start to the day saw EOS fall to an early morning low $5.2770 before rising to a high $5.3699.

EOS left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

EOSUSD 150621 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

EOS would need to avoid the $5.1930 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $5.4345 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for EOS to break out from this morning’s high $5.3699.

Barring a broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, EOS could test resistance at $5.70 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $5.5710.

A fall through the $5.1930 pivot and would bring the first major support level at $5.0565 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, EOS should steer clear of sub-$5.00 levels. The second major support level sits at $4.8150.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $5.0565

First Major resistance Level: $5.4345

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $6.52

38% FIB Retracement Level: $9.68

62% FIB Retracement Level: $14.77

Stellar’s Lumen

Stellar’s Lumen fell by 0.49% on Monday. Following a 5.18% rally on Sunday, Stellar’s Lumen ended the day at $0.3433.

A bearish start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen fall to a late morning intraday low $0.3269 before making a move.

Steering clear of the 62% FIB of $0.3216 and the first major support level at $0.3209, Stellar’s Lumen rallied to a late afternoon intraday high $0.3500.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.3588, Stellar’s Lumen fell back to end the day at sub-$0.3450 levels.

At the time of writing, Stellar’s Lumen was up by 0.74% to $0.3459. A mixed start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen fall to an early morning low $0.3398 before rising to a high $0.3474.

Stellar’s Lumen left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XLMUSD 150621 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Stellar’s Lumen would need to avoid a fall back through the $0.3401 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.3532 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Stellar’s Lumen to break out from Monday’s high $0.3500.

Barring an extended rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a broad-based crypto rally, Stellar’s Lumen could test resistance at $0.37 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.3632.

A fall back through the $0.3401 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.3301 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off on the day, Stellar’s Lumen should steer clear of the second major support level at $0.3170. The 62% FIB of $0.3216 should limit the downside.

A sustained fall through the 62% FIB of $0.3216 would form a near-term bearish trend from 16th May’s swing hi $0.7978.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.3301

First Major Resistance Level: $0.3532

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.6160

38% FIB Retracement Level: $0.5035

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3216

Tron’s TRX

Tron’s TRX rose by 0.46% on Monday. Following a 4.63% gain on Sunday, Tron’s TRX ended the day at $0.07175.

A bearish start to the day saw Tron’s TRX fall to a late morning intraday low $0.06990 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.6775, Tron’s TRX rallied to a late afternoon intraday high $0.07306.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.7367, Tron’s TRX fell back to sub-$0.0710 levels before finding late support.

A late move back though to $0.0717 levels delivered the upside on the day.

At the time of writing, Tron’s TRX was up by 0.90% to $0.07240. A mixed start to the day saw fall to an early morning low $0.07157 before rising to a high $0.07311.

Tron’s TRX left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

TRXUSD 150621 Hourly Chart

For the Day Ahead

Tron’s TRX would need to avoid a fall through $0.07157 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.07324 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Tron’s TRX to break out from the morning’s high $0.07311.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a broad-based crypto rally, Tron’s TRX could test resistance at the 62% FIB of $0.07480 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.07473.

A fall through the $0.07157 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.07008 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Tron’s TRX should steer clear of the second major support level at $0.06841.

A sustained fall back through the 62% FIB of $0.0748 would form a near-term bearish trend from April’s swing hi $0.1844.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.07008

First Major Resistance Level: $0.07324

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1426

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1167

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0748

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

Thanks, Bob

Dogecoin – Daily Tech Analysis –June 15th, 2021

Dogecoin

Dogecoin rose by 1.11% on Monday. Following a 6.20% rally on Sunday, Dogecoin ended the day at $0.3275.

A bearish morning saw Dogecoin fall to a mid-day intraday low $0.3199 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.3110, Dogecoin rallied to a late afternoon intraday high $0.3375.

Dogecoin broke through the first major resistance level at $0.3335 before a slide back to sub-$0.3210 levels.

Finding late support, however, Dogecoin move back through to $0.327 levels to deliver the upside on the day.

At the time of writing, Dogecoin was up by 0.23% to $0.3282. A mixed start to the day saw Dogecoin fall to an early morning low $0.3263 before rising to a high $0.3306.

Dogecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

DOGEUSD 150621 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Dogecoin would need to move back through the $0.3283 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.3367 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Dogecoin to break back through to $0.33 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Monday’s high $0.3375 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a breakout, Dogecoin could test resistance at $0.35 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.3459.

Failure to move back through the $0.3283 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.3191 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Dogecoin should steer clear of sub-$0.31 levels. The second major support level at $0.3107 should limit the downside.

A sustained fall through the 62% FIB of $0.2882 would form a near-term bearish trend from 8th May’s swing hi $0.7427.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.3191

Pivot Level: $0.3283

First Major Resistance Level: $0.3367

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.5691

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.4618

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.2882

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – June 15th, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum rose by 2.89% on Monday. Following a 5.83% rally on Sunday, Ethereum ended the day at $2,582.86.

A bearish start to the day saw Ethereum fall to a late morning intraday low $2,461.63 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $2,363, Ethereum rallied to a late afternoon intraday high $2,609.02.

Coming up against the first major resistance level at $2,603, Ethereum eased back to end the day at $2,580 levels.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was up by 0.32% to $2,591.11. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning high $2,597.76 before falling to a low $2,572.2.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 150621 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid the $2,551 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $2,641 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break out from Monday’s high $2,609.02.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another broad-based crypto rally, Ethereum could test resistance at the 38.2% FIB of $2,740 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $2,699.

A fall through the $2,551 pivot would bring the first major support level at $2,493 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of sub-$2,400 levels. The second major support level at $2,404 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2,493

Pivot Level: $2,551

First Major Resistance Level: $2,641

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $3,369

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $2,740

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1,725

Litecoin

Litecoin rose by 5.32% on Monday. Following on from a 5.66% gain on Sunday, Litecoin ended the day at $180.02.

A bearish start to the day saw Litecoin fall to a late morning intraday low $166.33 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $161, Litecoin rallied to a late intraday high $180.18.

Litecoin broke through the 62% FIB of $174 and the first major resistance level at $176 to end the day at $180 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down by 0.49% to $179.13. A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $180.70 before falling to a low $178.46.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 150621 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to avoid the $176 pivot and the 62% FIB of $174 to bring the first major resistance level at $185 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break out from the morning high $180.70.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended breakout, Litecoin could test resistance at $190. The second major resistance level sits at $189.

A fall through the $175 pivot and the 62% FIB would bring the first major support level at $171 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Litecoin should steer clear of sub-$170 levels. The second major support level sits at $162.

A sustained fall through the 62% FIB of $174 would form a near-term bearish trend from 10th May’s swing hi $413.91.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $171

Pivot Level: $176

First Major Resistance Level: $185

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $322

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $265

62% FIB Retracement Level: $174

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP rise by 0.55% on Monday. Following a 6.20% rally on Sunday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $0.89048.

A bearish morning saw Ripple’s XRP fall to a mid-day intraday low $0.86381 before making a move.

Steering clear of the 62% FIB of $0.8573 and the first major support level at $0.8381, Ripple’s XRP rallied to a late afternoon intraday high $0.92923.

Ripple’s XRP broke through the first major resistance level at $0.9082 before falling back to sub-$0.90 levels.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 0.16% to $0.88905. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning high $0.89088 before falling to a low $0.88651.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 150621 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to move through the $0.8945 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.9252 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break back through to $0.92 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Monday’s high $0.92923 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended rally, Ripple’s XRP could test resistance at $1.00. The second major resistance level sits at $0.9599.

Failure to move through the $0.8945 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.8598 and the 62% FIB of $0.8573 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.80 levels. The second major support level at $0.8291 should limit the downside.

A sustained fall through the 62% FIB of $0.8573 would form a near-term bearish trend from 14th April’s swing hi $1.96598.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.8598

Pivot Level: $0.8945

First Major resistance Level: $0.9252

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1.5426

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1.2807

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.8573

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

European Equities: Economic Data from the Eurozone and the U.S in Focus

Economic Calendar

Tuesday, 15th June

German CPI (MoM) (May) Final

French CPI (MoM) (May) Final

French HICP (MoM) (May) Final

Italian CPI (MoM) (May) Final

Eurozone Trade Balance (Apr)

Wednesday, 16th June

Eurozone Wages in euro zone (YoY) (Q1)

Thursday, 17th June

Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (May) Final

Eurozone CPI (MoM) (May) Final

Eurozone CPI (YoY) (May) Final

The Majors

It was a mixed start to the week for the European majors on Monday.

The CAC40 and the EuroStoxx600 rose by 0.24% and by 0.18% respectively, while the DAX30 slipped by 0.13%.

Better than expected economic data from the Eurozone and hopes of an accommodated FED delivered support on Monday.

While FOMC members have signaled a willingness to begin discussion on tapering, NFP numbers have yet to press for a hasty response.

The market focus early in the week will be on the FED, with the FOMC meeting kicking off later today.

The Stats

In April, industrial production increased by 0.8%, coming in ahead of a forecasted and March 0.4% rise.

According to Eurostat,

  • Production of consumer goods rose by 3.4%, energy by 3.2%, capital goods by 1.4%, and intermediate goods by 0.8%.
  • Bucking the trend, however, was a 0.3% decline in the production of non-durable consumer goods.
  • Belgium (+7.4%), Malta (+5.6%), and Estonia (+4.4%) recorded the largest monthly increases.
  • Lithuania registered the largest monthly decrease of 2.4% in the month.
  • Compared with April 2020, industrial production was up by 39.3%.
  • The production of durable consumer goods was up by 117.3%, year-on-year.
  • There were also marked increases in the production of capital goods (+65.4%) and intermediate goods (+38.7%).
  • Non-durable consumer goods (+15.4%) and energy (+14.4%) production were up modestly by comparison.

From the U.S

It was a particularly quiet day on the economic calendar, with no material stats to provide direction late in the session.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a bearish day for the auto sector on Monday. Volkswagen and Daimler fell by 0.94% and by 0.97% respectively, with Continental ending the day down by 0.72%. BMW saw a more modest 0.03% loss on the day.

It was a bearish day for the banks, however. Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank ended the day down by 1.44% and 1.38% respectively.

From the CAC, it was a mixed day for the banks. BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole rose by 0.23% and by 0.27% respectively. Soc Gen ended the day flat.

It was also a mixed day for the French auto sector. Stellantis NV ended the day flat, while Renault fell by 0.18%.

Air France-KLM slid by 1.40%, while Airbus SE eked out a 0.04% gain on the day.

On the VIX Index

It was back into the green for the VIX on Monday, marking 4th gain in 8 sessions.

Reversing a 2.80% fall from Friday, the VIX rose by 4.73% to end the day at 16.39.

The Dow fell by 0.25%, while the NASDAQ and the S&P500 ended the day up by 0.74% and by 0.18% respectively.

VIX 150621 Daily Chart

The Day Ahead

It’s a busier day ahead on the European economic calendar.

Finalized inflation figures for France, Germany, and Italy are due out along with trade data for the Eurozone.

Expect the Eurozone’s trade data for April to draw the greatest interest.

From the U.S, it’s a busy day ahead, with NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, wholesale inflation, and retail sales figures the key stats of the day.

Industrial production and inventory numbers are also due out but should have a muted impact on the majors.

Away from the economic calendar, further chatter following the G7 Summit will also need monitoring.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was down by 23 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The U.S Crypto Morning Session – June 14th, 2021

It’s been a mixed start to the week for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Following a bullish end to the week for the broader market on Sunday, Bitcoin was one of a few finding early support.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin, BTC to USD, was up by 0.81% to $39,316.0. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning high $39,777.0 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the day’s first major resistance level at $40,649, Bitcoin fell to an early low $38,732.0.

Steering well clear of the first major support level at $36,075, however, Bitcoin moved back through to $39,000 levels.

BTCUSD 140621 Hourly Chart

The Rest of the Pack

It’s been a mixed morning for the broader crypto market.

Through the morning, Bitcoin Cash SV (+4.89%) and Crypto.com Coin (+4.61%) found early support to join Bitcoin in the green.

It has been a bearish start for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Polkadot and Cardano’s ADA were down by 3.11% and by 2.07% respectively to lead the way down.

Binance Coin (-1.78%), Litecoin (-1.80%), and Ripple’s XRP (-1.42%) also struggled early on.

Chainlink (-0.97%) and Ethereum (-0.61%) saw relatively modest losses, however.

Through the early hours, the crypto total market rose to an early morning high $1,628bn before falling to a low $1,591bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $1,607bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance fell to an early low 45.44% before rising to a high 45.89%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 45.83%.

For the Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall through the $37,724 pivot to support the run at the first major resistance level at $40,649.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Bitcoin to break out from this morning’s high $39,777.0.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 and at $42,000 levels before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $42,298.

A fall through to the $37,724 pivot would bring the first major support level at $36,075 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off through the afternoon, however, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$35,000 levels.

The second major support level sits at $33,150.

Looking beyond the support and resistance levels, the 50 EMA has pulled further away from the 100 and the 200 early on.

We have also seen the 100 EMA continue to pull away from the 200 EMA after yesterday’s bullish cross.

The indicators support a continued upward trend through the day and a run at the major resistance levels.

Eurozone Industrial Production Figures for April Deliver EUR Support

It’s a quieter day on the economic data front this morning. Industrial production figures for the Eurozone were in focus this morning.

Industrial Production

In April, industrial production increased by 0.8%, coming in ahead of a forecasted and March 0.4% rise.

According to Eurostat,

  • Production of consumer goods rose by 3.4%, energy by 3.2%, capital goods by 1.4%, and intermediate goods by 0.8%.
  • Bucking the trend, however, was a 0.3% decline in the production of non-durable consumer goods.
  • Belgium (+7.4%), Malta (+5.6%), and Estonia (+4.4%) recorded the largest monthly increases.
  • Lithuania registered the largest monthly decrease of 2.4% in the month.
  • Compared with April 2020, industrial production was up by 39.3%.
  • The production of durable consumer goods was up by 117.3%, year-on-year.
  • There were also marked increases in the production of capital goods (+65.4%) and intermediate goods (+38.7%).
  • Non-durable consumer goods (+15.4%) and energy (+14.4%) production were up modestly by comparison.

Market Impact

Ahead of the trade data, the EUR had fallen to a pre-stat and current day low $1.20943 before rising to a pre-stat high and current day high $1.21208.

In response to the industrial production figures, the EUR slipped to a post-stat low $1.21085 before rising to a post-stat high $1.21187.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.06% to $1.21154.

EURUSD 140621 Hourly Chart

Bitcoin and Ethereum – Weekly Technical Analysis – June 14th, 2021

Bitcoin

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, rallied by 9.00% in the week ending 13th June. Following a 0.48% gain from the previous week, Bitcoin ended the week at $38,998.9.

A bearish start to the week saw Bitcoin fall to a Tuesday intraweek low $31,075.0 before making a move.

The reversal saw Bitcoin fall through the first major support level at $33,466 and the second major support level at $31,152.

Finding mid-week support, however, Bitcoin rallied to a Sunday intraweek high $39,374.0.

Bitcoin broke through the first major resistance level at $38,788 to end the week at $38,900 levels.

3 days in the green that included an 11.87% rally on Wednesday and a 9.66% gain on Sunday delivered the upside for the week. A 6.17% slide on Monday and a 4.75% decline on Saturday limited the upside, however.

For the week ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall through the $36,483 pivot to support a run the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 and the first major resistance level at $41,890.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break back through to $41,000 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $42,000 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended breakout, Bitcoin could test resistance at $45,000 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $44,782.

A fall through the $36,483 pivot would bring the first major support level at $33,591 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$30,000 levels. The second major support level sits at $28,184.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 0.29% to $39,111.0. A mixed start to the week saw Bitcoin fall to an early Monday low $38,782.0 before rising to a high $39,777.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested at the start of the week.

BTCUSD 140621 Daily Chart

Ethereum

Ethereum slid by 7.40% in the week ending 13th June. Partially reversing a 13.54% rally from the previous week, Ethereum ended the week at $2,510.23.

A mixed start to the week saw Ethereum rise to a Monday intraweek high $2,849.15 before hitting reverse.

While falling short of the first major resistance level at $2,976, Ethereum broke through the 38.2% FIB of $2,740.

The reversal saw Ethereum fall to a Saturday intraweek low $2,259.91.

Ethereum fell back through the 38.2% FIB and through the first major support level at $2,361.

Finding late support, however, Ethereum broke back through the first major support level to end the week at $2,500 levels.

4-days in the red that included a 4.37% fall on Monday and a 5.35% slide on Thursday delivered the downside for the week.

For the week ahead

Ethereum would need to move through the pivot at $2,540 to bring the 38.2% FIB of $2,740 and the first major resistance level at $2,820 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break back through to $2,800 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and last week’s high $2,849.15 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended breakout, Ethereum could test resistance at the 23.6% FIB of $3,369 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $3,129.

Failure to move through the pivot at $2,540 would bring the first major support level at $2,230 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off in the week, Ethereum should steer clear of sub-$1,900 levels. The second major support at $1,951 should limit the downside.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down by 0.36% to $2,501.17. A mixed start to the week saw Ethereum fall to an early Monday low $2,486.72 before rising to a high $2,525.00.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested at the start of the week.

ETHUSD 140621 Daily Chart

Economic Data and Central Bank Chatter Put the EUR, the Loonie, and the Pound in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It was a quiet start to the week on the economic calendar this morning, with Australian and China markets closed today. Later this morning, the Japanese Yen will be in action, however.

For the Japanese Yen

Through the early hours, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.10% to ¥109.77 against the U.S Dollar. Later this morning, finalized industrial production figures for April are due out.

Barring any marked revisions, however, we don’t expect the numbers to influence.

According to prelim figures, industrial production increased by 2.5%, month-on-month. In March, production had risen by 1.7%.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.10% to $0.7700, while the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.13% to $0.7139.

The Day Ahead

For the EUR

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic data front. April industrial production figures for the Eurozone are due out later today.

Following some disappointing production figures from France and Germany, a weak set of numbers would pin the EUR back.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.07% to $1.2101.

For the Pound

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar.

There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Pound in the hands of government plans vis-à-vis remaining COVID-19 restrictions and updates from the G7 Summit.

On the monetary policy front, BoE Gov. Bailey is due to speak late in the day and could move the dial…

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.04% to $1.4113.

Across the Pond

It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the U.S to provide the Dollar with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Greenback in the hands of market sentiment towards this week’s FOMC meet.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.02% to 90.576.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic data front. Manufacturing sales figures for April are due out late in the day.

With little else to focus on, we can expect some influence from the numbers.

Ultimately, however, market risk sentiment will be the key driver at the start of the week.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.01% to C$1.2159 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EOS, Stellar’s Lumen, and Tron’s TRX – Daily Analysis – June 14th, 2021

EOS

EOS rose by 5.35% on Sunday. Reversing a 1.69% loss from Saturday, EOS ended the week down by 12.96% to $5.0891.

A mixed start to the day saw EOS fall to an early morning intraday low $4.6628 before making a move.

Finding support at the first major support level at $4.6369, EOS rallied to a late intraday high $5.1120.

EOS broke through the first major resistance level at $4.9708 to end the day at $5.08 levels. The second major resistance level at $5.1110 pinned EOS back late in the day.

At the time of writing, EOS was down by 0.24% to $5.0432. A mixed start to the day saw EOS rise to an early morning high $5.1585 before falling to a low $4.9973.

EOS left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

EOSUSD 140621 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

EOS would need to avoid the $4.9546 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $5.2465 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for EOS to break out from the morning high $5.1585.

Barring a broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, EOS could test resistance at $5.50 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $5.4038.

A fall through the $4.9546 pivot and would bring the first major support level at $4.7973 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, EOS should steer clear of the second major support level at $4.5054.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $4.7973

First Major resistance Level: $5.2465

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $6.52

38% FIB Retracement Level: $9.68

62% FIB Retracement Level: $14.77

Stellar’s Lumen

Stellar’s Lumen rose by 5.18% on Sunday. Following a 3.11% gain on Saturday, Stellar’s Lumen ended the week down by 9.32% to $0.3449.

A bearish start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen fall to an early morning intraday low $0.3108 before making a move.

While steering clear of the first major support level at $0.3041, Stellar’s Lumen fell through the 62% FIB of $0.3216.

Finding early afternoon support, however, Stellar’s Lumen rallied to a late intraday high $0.3487.

Stellar’s Lumen broke through the first major resistance level at $0.3487 before ending the day at sub-$0.3450 levels.

At the time of writing, Stellar’s Lumen was down by 1.04% to $0.3413. A mixed start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen rise to an early morning high $0.3500 before falling to a low $0.3389.

Stellar’s Lumen left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XLMUSD 140621 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Stellar’s Lumen would need to avoid the $0.3348 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.3588 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Stellar’s Lumen to break out from this morning’s high $0.3500.

Barring an extended rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a broad-based crypto rally, Stellar’s Lumen could test resistance at $0.40 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.3727.

A fall through the $0.3348 pivot would bring the 62% FIB of $0.3216 and the first major support level at $0.3209 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Stellar’s Lumen should steer clear of sub-$0.30 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.2969.

A sustained fall through the 62% FIB of $0.3216 would form a near-term bearish trend from 16th May’s swing hi $0.7978.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.3209

First Major Resistance Level: $0.3588

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.6160

38% FIB Retracement Level: $0.5035

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3216

Tron’s TRX

Tron’s TRX rose by 4.63% on Sunday. Reversing a 1.73% loss from Saturday, Tron’s TRX ended the week down by 8.08% to $0.07142.

A bearish start to the day saw Tron’s TRX fall to an early morning intraday low $0.06632 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.06614, Tron’s TRX rose to a late intraday high $0.07224.

Tron’s TRX broke through the first major resistance level at $0.6992 and the second major resistance level at $0.07158.

A bearish end to the day, however, saw Tron’s TRX fall back through the second major resistance level to end the day at $0.0714 levels.

At the time of writing, Tron’s TRX was down by 0.39% to $0.07114. A mixed start to the day saw Tron’s TRX rise to an early morning high $0.07224 before falling to a low $0.07023.

Tron’s TRX left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

TRXUSD 140621 Hourly Chart

For the Day Ahead

Tron’s TRX would need to avoid a fall through $0.06999 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.07367 and the 62% FIB of $0.07480 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Tron’s TRX to break out from the morning and yesterday’s high $0.07224.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the 62% FIB of $0.07480 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a broad-based crypto rally, Tron’s TRX could test resistance at $0.080 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.07591.

A fall through the $0.06999 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.06775 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Tron’s TRX should steer clear of the second major support level at $0.06407.

A sustained fall back through the 62% FIB of $0.0748 would form a near-term bearish trend from April’s swing hi $0.1844.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.06775

First Major Resistance Level: $0.07367

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1426

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1167

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0748

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

Thanks, Bob

Dogecoin – Daily Tech Analysis –June 14th, 2021

Dogecoin

Dogecoin rallied by 6.20% on Sunday. Reversing a 1.81% fall from Saturday, Dogecoin ended the week down by 12.82% to $0.3239

A bearish start to the day saw Dogecoin fall to an early morning intraday low $0.3077 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.3023, Dogecoin rallied to a late intraday high $0.3302.

Dogecoin broke through the first major resistance level at $0.3205 and the second major resistance level at $0.3289.

A bearish end to the day, however, saw Dogecoin fall back through the second major resistance level to end the day at $0.323 levels.

At the time of writing, Dogecoin was up by 0.25% to $0.3247. A mixed start to the day saw Dogecoin rise to an early morning high $0.3275 before falling to a low $0.3217.

Dogecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

DOGEUSD 140621 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Dogecoin would need to avoid the $0.3206 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.3335 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Dogecoin to break out from Sunday’s high $0.3302.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a breakout, Dogecoin could test resistance at $0.35 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.3431.

A fall through the $0.3206 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.3110 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Dogecoin should steer clear of sub-$0.30 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.2981.

A sustained fall through the 62% FIB of $0.2882 would form a near-term bearish trend from 8th May’s swing hi $0.7427.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.3110

Pivot Level: $0.3206

First Major Resistance Level: $0.3335

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.5691

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.4618

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.2882

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – June 14th, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, rallied by 9.66% on Sunday. Reversing a 4.75% slide from Saturday, Bitcoin ended the week up by 9.0% to $38,998.9.

A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning intraday low $34,800.0 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $34,309, Bitcoin surged to a late intraday high $39,374.0.

Bitcoin broke through the first major resistance level at $37,140 and the second major resistance level at $38,716.

Falling short of $40,000 levels, however, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$39,000 levels.

The second major resistance level delivered support late in the day.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact supported by the latest move back through to $39,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need a sustained fall through the 62% FIB of $27,237 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Sunday.

Polkadot fell by 3.22% to buck the trend on the day.

It was a bullish day for the rest of the majors, however.

Chainlink rallied by 7.90% to lead the way.

Binance Coin (+6.45%) and Ripple’s XRP (+6.20%) weren’t far behind.

Bitcoin Cash SV (+3.25%), Cardano’s ADA (+5.25%), Ethereum (+5.83%), and Litecoin (+5.66%) also found strong support, while Crypto.com Coin (+0.89%) trailed.

While it was a bullish end to the week, it was a bearish week for the majors.

Polkadot and Chainlink led the way down, sliding by 16.39% and by 15.16% respectively.

Binance Coin (-7.06%), Bitcoin Cash SV (-6.83%), Cardano’s ADA (-7.17%), Crypto.com Coin (-8.51%), Ethereum (-7.40%), and Ripple’s XRP (-6.67%) also struggled.

Litecoin saw a more modest 3.04% loss in the week, however.

In the week, the crypto total market rose to a Monday high $1,670bn before falling to a Tuesday low $1,374bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $1,606bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance fell to a Monday low 41.28% before rising to a Friday high 45.65%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 45.52%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 0.03% to $39,008.9. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning high $39,235.9 before falling to a low $38,782.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

Crypto.com Coin found support early on, rallying by 6.11% to join Bitcoin in the green.

It was a relatively bearish start for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Polkadot was down by 0.67% to lead the way down.

BTCUSD 140621 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid the $37,724 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $40,649 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break out from Sunday’s high $39,374.0.

Barring a broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $41,000 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at $43,000 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $42,298. Bitcoin would need plenty of support, however, to breakout from the 38.2% FIB of $41,592.

A fall through the $37,724 pivot would bring the first major support level at $36,075 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$35,000 levels. The second major support level sits at $33,150.

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – June 14th, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum rallied by 5.83% on Sunday. Following a 0.70% gain from Saturday, Ethereum ended the week down by 7.40% to $2,510.23.

A bearish start to the day saw Ethereum fall to an early morning intraday low $2,309.67 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $2,270, Ethereum rallied to a late intraday high $2,550.00.

Ethereum broke through the first major resistance level at $2,463. Coming up against the second major resistance level at $2,554, however, Ethereum eased back to sub-$2,520 levels.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down by 0.47% to $2,498.40. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning high $2,524.99 before falling to a low $2,496.05.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 140621 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid the $2,457 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $2,604 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break out from Sunday’s high $2,550.00.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another broad-based crypto rally, Ethereum could test resistance at the 38.2% FIB of $2,740 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $2,697.

A fall through the $2,457 pivot would bring the first major support level at $2,363 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of sub-$2,300 levels. The second major support level sits at $2,216.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2,363

Pivot Level: $2,457

First Major Resistance Level: $2,604

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $3,369

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $2,740

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1,725

Litecoin

Litecoin rose by 5.66% on Sunday. Reversing a 0.63% loss from Saturday, Litecoin ended the week down by 3.04% to $171.02.

A bearish start to the day saw Litecoin fall to an early morning intraday low $156.54 before making a move.

Finding support at the first major support level at $156, Litecoin rallied to a late intraday high $171.73.

Litecoin broke through the first major resistance level at $166 and the second major resistance level at $170.

A late pullback saw Litecoin briefly fall back through the second major resistance level before ending the day at $171 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down by 0.29% to $170.53. A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $172.66 before falling to a low $170.22.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 140621 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to avoid the $166 pivot to bring the 62% FIB of $174 and the first major resistance level at $176 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break out from the 62% FIB.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended breakout, Litecoin could test resistance at $190. The second major resistance level sits at $182.

A fall through the $166 pivot would bring the first major support level at $161 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Litecoin should steer clear of sub-$160 levels. The second major support level sits at $151.

A sustained fall through the 62% FIB of $174 would form a near-term bearish trend from 10th May’s swing hi $413.91.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $161

Pivot Level: $166

First Major Resistance Level: $176

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $322

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $265

62% FIB Retracement Level: $174

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP rallied by 6.20% on Sunday. Reversing a 1.81% decline from Saturday, Ripple’s XRP ended the week down by 6.67% to $0.88289.

A bearish start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP fall to an early morning intraday low $0.81861 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.8100, Ripple’s XRP rallied to a late intraday high $0.88876.

Ripple’s XRP broke through the first major resistance level at $0.8498 and the second major resistance level at $0.8681. More significantly, Ripple’s XRP also broke back through the 62% FIB of $0.8573.

Late in the day, Ripple’s XRP briefly fell back to $0.87 levels before ending the day at $0.88 levels.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 0.01% to $0.88278. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning high $0.89280 before falling to a low $0.88210.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 140621 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to avoid the $0.8634 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.9082 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break out from Sunday’s high $0.88876.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $0.91 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended rally, Ripple’s XRP could test resistance at $1.00. The second major resistance level sits at $0.9336.

A fall through the $0.8634 pivot would bring the 62% FIB of $0.8573 and the first major support level at $0.8381 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.80 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.7933.

A sustained fall through the 62% FIB of $0.8573 would form a near-term bearish trend from 14th April’s swing hi $1.96598.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.8381

Pivot Level: $0.8634

First Major resistance Level: $0.9082

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1.5426

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1.2807

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.8573

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

The Week Ahead – A Busier Economic Calendar and the FED to Keep the Markets Busy

On the Macro

It’s a busier week ahead on the economic calendar, with 60 stats in focus in the week ending 18th June. In the week prior, 45 stats had been in focus.

For the Dollar:

Early in the week, Wholesale inflation and retail sales figures will be in focus.

While inflation figures remain a key area of interest, retail sales will likely be the main focal point.

On Thursday, Philly FED Manufacturing and weekly jobless claim figures will also influence.

Other stats include industrial production, housing sector data, and manufacturing numbers out of NY State. We don’t expect these to have too much influence in the week, however.

On the monetary policy front, it will be the FED’s June monetary policy decision that will be the main event.

The markets are expecting discussions on a tapering to the asset purchasing program to begin. Will there be talk of a shift in sentiment towards interest rates? The projections will hold the key.

In the week, the Dollar ended the week up by 0.46% to 90.555.

For the EUR:

It’s a relatively quiet week on the economic data front.

Eurozone industrial production, trade, and wage growth figures are due out Monday through Wednesday.

With little else for the markets to consider, we can expect the numbers to influence.

Finalized inflation figures for May are also due out for France, Germany, Italy, and the Eurozone.

Barring marked revisions to prelim figures, however, the numbers should have limited impact on the EUR.

The EUR ended the week down by 0.48% to $1.2108.

For the Pound:

It’s a busier week ahead on the economic calendar.

Employment figures are due out on Tuesday. Expect claimant counts and the unemployment rate to be the key numbers.

On Wednesday, inflation figures will also influence ahead of retail sales figures on Friday.

Impressive numbers will fuel speculation of a near-term move by the BoE. Much will depend upon the government’s reopening plans, however.

On the monetary policy front, BoE Gov. Bailey is scheduled to speak in the week. Expect any forward guidance to influence.

The Pound ended the week down by 0.35% to $1.4107.

For the Loonie:

It’s another quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

At the start of the week, manufacturing sales figures are due out ahead of inflation figures on Wednesday.

Expect the inflation figures to be key.

Crude oil inventory numbers will also influence mid-week.

The Loonie ended the week down 0.61% to C$1.2158 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s a quiet week ahead.

Employment figures for May are due out on Thursday. The numbers remain key, with the RBA unwilling to make a move until the slack is removed. Weak numbers would certainly test support levels.

On the monetary policy front, the RBA meeting minutes early in the week will provide direction.

The Aussie Dollar ended the week down by 0.40% to $0.7708.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s also a quiet week ahead.

1st quarter current account and GDP numbers are due out.

Expect the GDP number on Thursday to be key.

Economic data from China will also influence early in the week.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week down by 1.16% to $0.7130.

For the Japanese Yen:

Finalized industrial production figures are due out at the start of the week. Expect any marked revisions to influence ahead of trade data on Wednesday.

Inflation figures on Friday should have a muted impact, with the BoJ in action at the end of the week.

The Japanese Yen fell by 0.13% to ¥109.66 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

Industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investments will be in focus.

Following disappointing numbers for April, the markets will be looking for improvement. Weaker numbers would test support for riskier assets on Wednesday.

The Chinese Yuan ended the week down by 0.05% to CNY6.3988 against the U.S Dollar.

Geo-Politics

There are no major risks to consider in the week ahead. Key takeaways from the G7 will likely influence, however.

As always, however, the markets will need to continue monitoring chatter from Capitol Hill and Beijing.

The Iranian presidential election is in the week ahead…

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – June 13th, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, slid by 4.75% on Saturday. Reversing a 1.79% gain from Friday, Bitcoin ended the day at $35,564.0.

A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning intraday high $37,461.3 before hitting reverse.

Falling well short of the first major resistance level at $38,016, Bitcoin slid to a late morning intraday low $34,630.0.

The extended sell-off saw Bitcoin fall through the first major support level at $36,295 and the second major support level at $35,251.

Steering clear of sub-$35,000 levels, however, Bitcoin broke back through the second major resistance level to revisit $36,000 levels before easing back.

Going into the 2nd half of the day, the first major support level had pinned Bitcoin back.

The near-term bullish trend remained in spite of the latest fall back to sub-$35,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need a sustained fall through the 62% FIB of $27,237 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Saturday.

Polkadot rose by 4.07% to lead the way, with Cardano’s ADA (+2.89%), Chainlink (+0.68%), and Ethereum (+0.70%) also finding support.

It was a bearish day for the rest of the majors, however.

Bitcoin Cash SV slid by 7.67% to lead the way down, with Crypto.com Coin falling by 4.93%.

Binance Coin (-0.57%), Litecoin (-0.63%), and Ripple’s XRP (-1.81%) saw relatively modest losses.

In the current week, the crypto total market rose to a Monday high $1,670bn before falling to a Tuesday low $1,374bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $1,493bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance fell to a Monday low 41.28% before rising to a Friday high 45.66%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 44.51%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 0.18% to $35,501.0. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning high $35,652.5 before falling to a low $35,391.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

Crypto.com Coin bucked the trend early on, rising by 0.27%.

It was a bearish start for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Cardano’s ADA was down by 0.57% to lead the way down.

BTCUSD 130621 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to move through the $35,885 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $37,140 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break back through to $37,000 levels.

Barring a broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Saturday’s high $37,461.3 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at $40,000 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $38,716.

Failure to move through the $35,885 pivot would bring the first major support level at $34,309 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$33,000 levels. The second major support level at $33,054 should limit the downside.

U.S Mortgage Rates Ease Back Ahead of the Coming Week’s FED Policy Decision

Mortgage rates fell for the 2nd time in 4-weeks in the week ending 10th June.

Reversing a 4 basis points rise from the previous week, 30-year fixed rates decreased by 3 basis points to 2.96%.

The modest decline in mortgage rates left 30-year fixed rates at sub-3% for a 3rd consecutive week.

Compared to this time last year, 30-year fixed rates were down by 25 basis points.

30-year fixed rates were still down by 198 basis points since November 2018’s last peak of 4.94%.

Economic Data from the Week

It was a particularly quiet first half of the week on the U.S economic calendar.

Economic data through the 1st half of the week included job openings and trade data for April.

The stats were skewed to the positive supporting the unwavering optimism towards the economic recovery.

Particularly disappointing nonfarm payroll numbers from the week prior and uncertainty ahead of inflation and labor market numbers later in the week weighed on Treasury yields and ultimately mortgage rates.

Freddie Mac Rates

The weekly average rates for new mortgages as of 10th June were quoted by Freddie Mac to be:

  • 30-year fixed rates fell by 3 basis points to 2.96% in the week. This time last year, rates had stood at 3.21%. The average fee rose from 0.6 to 0.7 points.
  • 15-year fixed fell by 4 basis 2.23% in the week. Rates were down by 39 basis points from 2.62% a year ago. The average fee remained unchanged at 0.6 points.
  • 5-year fixed rates decreased by 9 basis points to 2.55%. Rates were down by 55 points from 3.10% a year ago. The average fee remained unchanged at 0.2 points.

According to Freddie Mac,

  • The economy is recovering at a remarkably fast pace. As the pandemic restrictions continue to lift, economic growth will remain strong over the coming months.
  • Despite the stronger economy, the housing market is experiencing a slowdown in purchase application activity due to modestly higher mortgage rates.
  • However, it has yet to translate into a weaker home price trajectory because the shortage of inventory continues to cause pricing to remain elevated.

Mortgage Bankers’ Association Rates

For the week ending 4th June, the rates were:

  • Average interest rates for 30-year fixed to conforming loan balances decreased from 3.17% to 3.15%. Points decreased from 0.39 to 0.34 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.
  • Average 30-year fixed mortgage rates backed by FHA decreased from 3.16% to 3.12%. Points rose from 0.31 to 0.34 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.
  • Average 30-year rates for jumbo loan balances decreased from 3.34% to 3.29%. Points decreased from 0.38 to 0.32 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.

Weekly figures released by the Mortgage Bankers Association showed that the Market Composite Index, which is a measure of mortgage loan application volume, fell by a further 3.1% in the week ending 4th June. In the week prior, the index had fallen by 4.0%.

The Refinance Index fell by another 5% from the previous week and was 27% lower than the same week one year ago. The index had declined by 5% from the previous week.

In the week ending 4th June, the refinance share of mortgage activity decreased from 61.3% to 60.4%. The share had declined from 61.4% to 61.3% in the previous week.

According to the MBA,

  • Most of the decline in mortgage rates came last week, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate declining to 3.15%. This likely impacted refinance applications.
  • With fewer homeowners able to take advantage of lower rates, the refinance share dipped to the lowest level since April.
  • The average loan size on a purchase application edged down to $407,000, below the $418,000 record set in February.
  • Home-price growth continues to accelerate, driven by favorable demographics, the recovering job market and economy, and housing demand far outpacing supply.

For the week ahead

Wholesale inflation and retail sales figures will draw attention and influence mortgage rates.

The main event of the week, however, will be the FOMC monetary policy decision and projections.

Expect these to be the key to U.S Treasury yields and mortgage rates in the week ahead.

From elsewhere, economic data from China will also be a factor.

European Equities: Economic Data and Updates from the G7 Summit in Focus

Economic Calendar

Monday, 14th June

Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr)

Tuesday, 15th June

German CPI (MoM) (May) Final

French CPI (MoM) (May) Final

French HICP (MoM) (May) Final

Italian CPI (MoM) (May) Final

Eurozone Trade Balance (Apr)

Wednesday, 16th June

Eurozone Wages in euro zone (YoY) (Q1)

Thursday, 17th June

Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (May) Final

Eurozone CPI (MoM) (May) Final

Eurozone CPI (YoY) (May) Final

The Majors

It was a bullish end to the week for the European majors on Friday.

The CAC40 and the DAX30 rose by 0.83% and by 0.78% respectively, with the EuroStoxx600 gaining 0.65%.

Economic data was on the lighter side, leaving the majors to respond further to U.S stats and the ECB monetary policy decision and outlook from Thursday.

Market optimism continued to support following the ECB’s upward revision to growth forecasts for this year and next.

With inflationary pressures projected to ease going into next year, even a marked pickup in U.S inflationary pressures failed to spook the markets.

From a FED perspective, a slower recovery in labor market conditions and expectations of softer inflation next year eased market concerns over a shift in FED policy near-term.

Updates from the G7 Summit was also market risk positive, with the message being one of unity going into day 1.

The Stats

It’s was quieter day on the economic data front this morning. Finalized inflation figures from Spain were in focus, which had a muted impact on the European majors.

In May, the annual rate of inflation accelerated from 2.2% to 2.7%, which was is in line with prelim figures.

From the U.S

Consumer sentiment figures provided support late in the day.

According to prelim figures, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose from 82.9 to 86.4 in June. Economists had forecast a more modest increase to 84.0.

The Consumer Expectations Index was also on the rise, increasing from 78.8 to 83.8.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a bullish day for the auto sector on Friday. BMW rallied by 2.23%, with Continental and Daimler ending the day up by 1.70% and by 1.84% respectively. Volkswagen trailed, however, rising by a more modest 1.28%.

It was a bearish day for the banks, however. Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank ended the day with losses of 1.03% and 1.78% respectively.

From the CAC, it was another mixed day for the banks. BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole rose by 0.41% and by 0.26% respectively. Soc Gen slipped by 0.08%.

It was a bullish day for the French auto sector, however. Stellantis NV rose by 0.88%, with Renault rallying by 7.05%.

Air France-KLM and Airbus SE ended the day with gains of 1.06% and 1.66% respectively.

On the VIX Index

It was a 2nd consecutive day in the red for the VIX on Friday, marking just the 3rd decline in 7 sessions.

Following a 10.01% fall from Thursday, the VIX declined by 2.80% to end the day at 15.65.

The NASDAQ rose by 0.35%, with the Dow and the S&P500 ending the day up by 0.04% and by 0.19% respectively.

VIX 140621 Daily Chart

The Day Ahead

It’s a relatively day ahead on the European economic data front.

Industrial production figures for the Eurozone are due out later today. With little else for the markets to focus on, expect some sensitivity to the numbers. Following disappointing numbers from France and Germany, the number will need to be quite dire, however, to weigh heavily on the majors.

From the U.S, there are no material stats to provide direction later in the day.

The lack of stats will leave updates from the G7 to influence.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – June 12th, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, rose by 1.79% on Friday. Reversing a 1.89% fall from Thursday, Bitcoin ended the day at $37,338.0.

A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning intraday low $35,929.0 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $35,540, Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high $37,650.0.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $38,061, Bitcoin fell to $36,500 levels before finding support.

A late move back through to $37,300 levels delivered the upside on the day.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact supported by the latest move back through to $37,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need a sustained fall through the 62% FIB of $27,237 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Friday.

Bitcoin Cash SV rose by 3.76% to buck the broader trend and join Bitcoin in the green.

It was a bearish day for the rest of the majors, however.

Polkadot slid by 9.32% to lead the way down, with Cardano’s ADA (-6.22%) and Chainlink (-7.01%) also seeing heavy losses.

Binance Coin (-1.80%), Crypto.com Coin (-0.76%), Ethereum (-4.71%), Litecoin (-3.23%), and Ripple’s XRP (-2.85%) saw relatively modest losses.

In the current week, the crypto total market rose to a Monday high $1,670bn before falling to a Tuesday low $1,374bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $1,519bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance fell to a Monday low 41.28% before rising to a Friday high 45.64%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 45.74%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 0.71% to $37,072.0. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning high $37,461.3 before falling to a low $37,040.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a bearish start to the day.

At the time of writing, Chainlink was down by 2.04% to lead the way down.

BTCUSD 120621 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid the $36,972 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $38,016 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break back through to $38,000 levels.

Barring a broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at $40,000 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $38,693.

A fall through the $36,972 pivot would bring the first major support level at $36,295 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of the second major support level at $35,251.

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – June 12th, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum fell by 4.71% on Friday. Following on from a 5.35% decline on Thursday, Ethereum ended the day at $2,355.27.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning intraday high $2,499.34 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $2,588, Ethereum slid to a late intraday low $2,322.16.

The reversal saw Ethereum fall through the first major support level at $2,392 before steadying to end the day at $2,350 levels.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down by 0.32% to $2,347.83. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning high $2,359.53 before falling to a low $2,338.12.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 120621 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to move through the $2,392 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $2,462 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break out from $2,450 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Friday’s high $2,499.34 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a broad-based crypto rally, Ethereum could test resistance at $2,600 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $2,569.

Failure to move through the $2,392 pivot would bring the first major support level at $2,285 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of the second major support level at $2,215.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2,285

Pivot Level: $2,392

First Major Resistance Level: $2,462

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $3,369

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $2,740

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1,725

Litecoin

Litecoin fell by 3.23% on Friday. Following on from a 2.69% decline on Thursday, Litecoin ended the day at $162.90.

A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning intraday high $173.76 before hitting reverse.

While falling short of the first major resistance level at $180, Litecoin tested resistance at the 62% FIB of $174.

The reversal saw Litecoin slide to a late intraday low $160.58.

Litecoin fell through the first major support level at $162 before ending the day at $162 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down by 1.09% to $161.12. A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $163.04 before falling to a low $161.11.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 120621 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to move through the $166 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $171 and the 62% FIB of $174 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break out from $165 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and the 62% FIB would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended breakout, Litecoin could test resistance at $190. The second major resistance level sits at $179.

Failure to move through the $166 pivot would bring the first major support level at $158 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Litecoin should steer clear of sub-$150 levels. The second major support level at $153 should limit the downside.

A sustained fall through the 62% FIB of $174 would form a near-term bearish trend from 10th May’s swing hi $413.91.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $158

Pivot Level: $166

First Major Resistance Level: $171

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $322

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $265

62% FIB Retracement Level: $174

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP fell by 2.85% on Friday. Following on from a 5.80% slide on Thursday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $0.84400.

After a mixed start to the day, Ripple’s XRP rose to an early afternoon intraday high $0.87937 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.9149, Ripple’s XRP slid to a late intraday low $0.83459.

Ripple’s XRP fell through the 62% FIB of $0.8573 and the first major support level at $0.8374.

Finding late support, however, Ripple’s XRP broke back through the first major support level to end the day at $0.84 levels.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 0.25% to 0.84188. A bearish start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP fall from an early morning high $0.84672 to a low $0.84188.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 120621 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to move through the $0.8527 pivot and the 62% FIB of $0.8573 to bring the first major resistance level at $0.8707 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break out from the 62% FIB.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Friday’s high $0.87937 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended rally, Ripple’s XRP could test resistance at $0.90. The second major resistance level sits at $0.8974.

Failure to move through the $0.8527 pivot and the 62% FIB would bring the first major support level at $0.8259 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.80 levels. The second major support level at $0.8079 should limit the downside.

A sustained fall through the 62% FIB of $0.8573 would form a near-term bearish trend from 14th April’s swing hi $1.96598.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.8259

Pivot Level: $0.8527

First Major resistance Level: $0.8707

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1.5426

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1.2807

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.8573

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob