A Busy Economic Calendar Puts the EUR, the Loonie, and the Greenback in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It was a busy quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Kiwi Dollar and the Japanese Yen were in action in the early part of the day. Later this morning, the Aussie Dollar will also be in focus.

For the Kiwi Dollar

Consumer confidence and housing sector data were in focus this morning.

In June, building permits rose by 3.8%, reversing a 2.40% slide in May. Economists had forecast a 1.10% decline.

Of greater significance, however, was a modest fall in consumer confidence.

In July, the ANZ Consumer Confidence Index fell from 114.0 to 113.1. Economists had forecast a decline to 113.0.

According to the July survey,

  • A good time to buy a major household item rose 2 points to +24, a fresh post-COVID high.
  • Sentiment towards the finances in a year’s time also improved. A net 23% expect to be better off this time next year, up 1 point.
  • This was in contrast to sentiment towards current financial situations, which fell 6 points to +8%.
  • Views towards the economic outlook were also mixed.
  • Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook fell 5 points to -2%, while the 5-year outlook rose by 2 points to +12%.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.70039 to $0.70162 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.01% to $0.7011.

For the Japanese Yen

Industrial production increased by 6.2% in June, according to prelim figures, reversing most of a 6.5% slide from May. Economists had forecast a 5.1% increase.

According to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry,

  • Industries that mainly contributed to the increase were motor vehicles, production machinery, and electronic parts & devices.
  • Industries that mainly contributed to the decrease were transport equipment (excl. motor vehicles) and ceramics, stone, & clay products.

According to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, retail sales increased 3.1%, reversing a 0.4% decline from May. Economists had forecast a 3.6% slide.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥109.416 to ¥109.402 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.05% to ¥109.420 against the U.S Dollar.

For the Aussie Dollar

Wholesale inflation and private sector credit figures will draw interest.

On the inflation front, the annual wholesale rate of inflation is forecast to accelerate from 0.2% to 3.5%.

Quarter-on-quarter, economists have forecast for the producer price index to rise by 2.1%, following a 0.4% increase in the 1st quarter.

At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was flat at $0.7396.

The Day Ahead

For the EUR

It’s a particularly busy day ahead on the economic data front, with the 2nd quarter GDP numbers, consumer spending, and inflation in focus.

French, German, and Eurozone 1st estimate GDP numbers for the 2nd quarter will be the key stats of the day, however.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.03% to $1.1891.

For the Pound

It’s yet another particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats leaves the IMF’s growth forecasts for the UK, delivered earlier in the week, to continue to resonate.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.05% to $1.3966.

Across the Pond

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar.

Personal spending and inflation figures for June together with finalized consumer sentiment figures for July will be in focus.

Barring any marked revisions to prelim consumer sentiment figures, expect the personal spending and inflation figures to be key.

Following the FED’s policy decision on Wednesday, any FOMC member chatter will also need monitoring.

On Thursday, the U.S Dollar Spot Index ended the day down by 0.50% to 91.864.

For the Loonie

It’s also a busy day on the economic calendar. Wholesale inflation, RMPI, and GDP numbers will be in focus.

With a lack of stats through much of the week, expect Loonie sensitivity to today’s numbers.

Away from the economic calendar, crude oil prices and market risk sentiment will also influence.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.01% to C$1.2449 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

European Equities: 2nd Quarter GDP and July Inflation in Focus

Economic Calendar

Thursday, 29th July

German Unemployment Change/Rate JUL

German Inflation Rate MoM Prel JUL

Friday, 30th July

French GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q2

French Household Consumption MoM JUN

German GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2

French Inflation Rate YoY Prel JUL

Spanish GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2

Italian GDP Growth Rate Adv Q2

Eurozone Core Inflation Rate Flash JUL

Eurozone GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2

Italian Inflation Rate MoM Prel JUL

Eurozone Inflation Rate Flash JUL

The Majors

It was another bullish day for the European majors on Thursday.

The CAC40 rose by 0.37%, with the DAX30 and the EuroStoxx600 ending the day up by 0.45% and by 0.46% respectively.

Market reaction to Wednesday’s dovish FED and economic data from the Eurozone and the U.S provided the majors with support.

From the Eurozone, German unemployment figures impressed, while stats from the U.S looked to have put a near-term lid on any need for the FED to make a move. U.S GDP and jobless claims figures were good enough, however, to support riskier assets and not spook the markets.

Support also came from corporate earnings releases on the day.

The Stats

The German economy was in focus once more on Thursday, with unemployment and inflation the key stats of the day.

In July, unemployment slid by 91k, following a 39k decline in June. As a result of the decline, the unemployment rate fell from 5.9% to 5.7%. Economists had forecast a 22k decline and for the unemployment rate to fall to 5.8%.

On the inflation front, Germany’s annual rate of inflation accelerated from 2.3% to 3.8% in July, according to prelim figures. Economists had forecast a pickup to 3.2%.

Month-on-month, consumer prices rose by 0.9%, following a 0.4% increase in June. Economists had forecast a 0.4% rise.

From the U.S

1st estimate GDP numbers for the 2nd quarter were out along with the weekly jobless claim figures.

In the 2nd quarter, the U.S economy grew by 6.5% in the 2nd quarter, ticking up from a 1st quarter 6.4%. Economists had forecast 8.5% growth in the quarter, however.

On the employment front, U.S jobless claims fell from 424k to 400k in the week ending 23rd July. Economists had forecast a decline to 370k.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a bullish day for the auto sector on Thursday. Daimler rallied by 2.80%, with BMW and Volkswagen ending the day up by 1.40% and by 1.28% respectively. Continental saw a more modest 0.80% gain on the day.

It was also a bullish day for the banks. Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank ended the day up by 3.23% and by 1.74% respectively.

From the CAC, it was a bullish day for the banks. BNP Paribas gained 1.78%, with Soc Gen and Credit Agricole rising by 1.55% and by 1.38% respectively.

It was also a bullish day for the French auto sector. Stellantis NV rallied by 3.36%, with Renault ending the day up by 0.62%.

Air France-KLM and Airbus SE also found further support, rising by 1.06% and by 0.61% respectively.

On the VIX Index

It was a 2nd consecutive day in the red for the VIX on Thursday, marking the 2nd decline of the week.

Following a 5.42% fall on Wednesday, the VIX declined by 3.33% to end the day at 17.70.

The NASDAQ rose by 0.11%, with the Dow and the S&P500 ending the day up by 0.44% and by 0.42% respectively.

VIX 300721 Daily Chart

The Day Ahead

It’s a particularly busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Eurozone and member state 1st estimate GDP numbers for the 2nd quarter are due out later today.

Expect plenty of interest in the numbers. We have seen concerns over the resilience of the economic recovery test support for the majors of late. Weaker than expected numbers would weigh.

Prelim inflation and consumer spending figures are also due out but will likely play 2nd fiddle to the GDP numbers.

From the U.S, inflation and personal spending figures will also influence late in the session.

Away from the economic calendar, corporate earnings and COVID-19 news updates will also need continued monitoring.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was up by 21 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Bitcoin Price Prediction – Avoiding a Return to sub-$40,000 Would Bring $41,500 into Play

After a bullish day for the crypto majors on Wednesday, it has been a mixed morning for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market this morning.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin, BTC to USD, was up by 0.21%to $40,100.0.

A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning low $39,272.0 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $38,913, Bitcoin rose to a late morning current day high $40,623.0.

Bitcoin fell short of Wednesday’s high $40,900.0 and the first major resistance level at $41,010.

BTCUSD 290721 Hourly Chart

The Rest of the Pack

It has been yet another mixed morning for the broader crypto market.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 3.47%, giving up some of Wednesday’s 13.8% rally.

Bitcoin Cash SV (-0.10%), Cardano’s ADA (-0.66%), Chainlink (-0.36%), Litecoin (-0.51%) also struggled.

It has been a relatively bullish morning for the rest of the majors, however.

Through the morning, Polkadot was up by 1.46% to lead the way, with Crypto.com Coin gaining 1.33%.

Binance Coin (+0.16%) and Ethereum (+0.48%) also found support.

Through the early hours, the crypto total market fell to an early morning low $1,507bn before rising to a high $1,552bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $1,538bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance fell to an early low 48.90% before rising to a high 49.15%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 48.95%.

For the Afternoon Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall back through the $39,907 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $41,010 back into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Bitcoin to break out from the morning high $40,623.0.

Barring an extended crypto rally through the afternoon, expect resistance at $40,500 to pin Bitcoin back.

In the event of a breakout, however, Bitcoin should target $42,500 levels before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $42,004. Bitcoin would need plenty of support, however, to breakout from the 38.2% FIB of $41,592.

A fall back through the $39,907 pivot would bring the first major support level at $38,913 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$38,000 levels, however. The second major support level sits at $37,810.

Looking beyond the support and resistance levels, we saw the 50 EMA hold its ground against the 100 and 200 EMAs this morning. This supported the modest upside through the morning.

A widening of the 50 from 100 and 200 EMAs this afternoon would bring the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 into play.

Key going into the afternoon will be for Bitcoin to avoid a fall back through the pivot to sub-$39,500 levels.

German Unemployment Slides, Delivering EUR Support

Following German business and consumer sentiment figures this week, German unemployment was in focus this morning.

Unemployment

In July, unemployment slid by 91k, following a 39k decline in June. As a result of the decline, the unemployment rate fell from 5.9% to 5.7%. Economists had forecast a 22k decline and for the unemployment rate to fall to 5.8%.

Market Impact

Ahead of today’s unemployment figures, the EUR had fallen to a pre-stat and current day low $1.18388 before visiting $1.186 levels.

In response to today’s stats, the EUR fell to a post-stat low $1.18647 before climbing to a post-stat and current day high $1.18801.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.27% to $1.18743.

EURUSD 290721 Hourly Chart

Next Up

Prelim inflation figures from Germany ahead of 2nd quarter GDP and weekly jobless claims figures from the U.S. It could get choppy for the EUR if initial jobless claims tumble and GDP numbers beat forecasts…

Economic Data from the Eurozone and the U.S Put the EUR and the Dollar in the Spotlight

Earlier in the Day:

It was another relatively quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Kiwi Dollar was in action in the early part of the day.

For the Kiwi Dollar

Business confidence was in focus this morning.

In July, the ANZ Business Confidence Index fell from -0.6 to -3.8%. Economists had forecast an increased to 1.2%.

According to the latest ANZ Report,

  • While business confidence was down, firms’ own activity rose by 5 points to +32%.
  • Investment intentions increased by 7 points to 25.5%, while employment intentions eased by 1 point.
  • Cost expectations rose by 5 points to a net 86.2%. A net 62.8% of respondents intend to raise their prices, up 6 points. General inflation expectations rose by 19 bps to 2.41%.
  • Profit expectations increased by 2 points to 5.8%, however.
  • Export intentions rose by a modest 1 point to 13.4%.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.69584 to $0.69545 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.07% to $0.6954.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.16% to ¥109.730 against the U.S Dollar, while the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.15% to $0.7365.

The Day Ahead

For the EUR

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic data front, with the German economy back in the spotlight.

Unemployment and inflation figures will be in focus later today.  Expect plenty of interest in the numbers, with market sensitivity to inflation lingering despite the ECB’s latest shift in its price objective.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.03% to $1.1848.

For the Pound

It’s yet another particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats to provide the Pound with direction.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.06% to $1.3911.

Across the Pond

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar.

1st estimate GDP numbers for the 2nd quarter and weekly jobless claims figures will be in focus later today.

We can expect plenty of interest in today’s numbers. Expect any sharp increase in jobless claims to overshadow positive GDP numbers, however.

At the time of writing, the U.S Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.09% to 92.235.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar, with no material stats from Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk sentiment on the day.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.05% to C$1.2522 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EOS, Stellar’s Lumen, and Tron’s TRX – Daily Analysis – July 29th, 2021

EOS

EOS rallied by 4.15% on Wednesday. Following a 2.31% gain on Tuesday, EOS ended the day at $3.9186.

A mixed start to the day saw EOS fall to a mid-morning intraday low $3.6852 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $3.6471, EOS rallied to a late morning intraday high $4.0191.

EOS broke through the first major resistance level at $3.8344 and the second major resistance level at $3.9060.

Falling short of the third major resistance level at $4.0933, however, EOS fell back through the resistance levels before a late rebound.

Late in the day, EOS broke back through the first and second major resistance levels to end the day at $3.91 levels.

At the time of writing, EOS was down by 2.64% to $3.8151. A mixed start to the day saw EOS rise to an early morning high $3.9436 before falling to a low $3.8079.

EOS left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

EOSUSD 290721 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

EOS would need to move back through the $3.8743 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $4.0634 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for EOS to break out from Wednesday’s high $4.0191.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, EOS could test resistance at $4.15. The second major resistance level sits at $4.20282.

Failure to move back through the $3.8743 pivot would bring the first major support level at $3.7295 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, EOS should steer clear of sub-$3.70 levels. The second major support level sits at $3.5404.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $3.7295

First Major resistance Level: 4.0634

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $6.52

38% FIB Retracement Level: $9.68

62% FIB Retracement Level: $14.77

Stellar’s Lumen

Stellar’s Lumen rose by 2.70% on Wednesday. Following a 1.00% gain on Tuesday, Stellar’s Lumen ended the at $0.2701.

A mixed start saw Stellar’s Lumen fall to a mid-morning intraday low $0.2582 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.2528, Stellar’s Lumen rallied to a late morning intraday high $0.2816 before hitting reverse.

Stellar’s Lumen broke through the first major resistance level at $0.2718 and the second major resistance level at $0.2806.

The reversal saw Stellar’s Lumen slide back through the major resistance levels to sub-$0.27 before ending the day at $0.27 levels.

At the time of writing, Stellar’s Lumen was down by 2.84% to $0.2624. A mixed start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen rise to an early morning high $0.2708 before falling to a low $0.2621.

Stellar’s Lumen left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XLMUSD 290721 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Stellar’s Lumen would need to move back through the $0.2700 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.2817 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Stellar’s Lumen to break back through to $0.28 levels.

Barring an extended rally, the first major resistance level and Wednesday’s high $0.2816 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another broad-based crypto rally, Stellar’s Lumen could test resistance at $0.30 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.2934.

Failure to move back through the $0.2700 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.2583 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Stellar’s Lumen should steer clear of sub-$0.25 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.2466.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.2583

First Major Resistance Level: $0.2817

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3402

38% FIB Retracement Level: $0.4277

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.5690

Tron’s TRX

Tron’s TRX rose by 1.37% on Wednesday. Following a 2.60% gain on Tuesday, Tron’s TRX ended the day at $0.06084.

After a mixed start to the day, Tron’s TRX rose to a late morning intraday high $0.06225 before hitting reverse.

Tron’s TRX broke through the first major resistance level at $0.06186 before sliding to a late afternoon intraday low $0.05937.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.05746, however, Tron’s TRX broke back through to $0.060 levels to end the day in positive territory.

At the time of writing, Tron’s TRX was down by 2.33% to $0.05942. A mixed start to the day saw Tron’s TRX rise to an early morning high $0.06123 before falling to a low $0.05888.

Tron’s TRX tested the first major support level at $0.05939 early on.

TRXUSD 290721 Hourly Chart

For the Day Ahead

Tron’s TRX would need to move back through the $0.06082 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.06227 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Tron’s TRX to move back through to $0.062 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Wednesday’s high $0.06225 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Tron’s TRX could test the second major resistance level at $0.06370.

Failure to move back through the $0.06082 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.05939 back into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Tron’s TRX should steer clear of the second major support level at $0.05794.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.05939

First Major Resistance Level: $0.06227

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0787

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0989

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1316

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

Thanks, Bob

Dogecoin – Daily Tech Analysis –July 29th, 2021

Dogecoin

Dogecoin slipped by 0.05% on Wednesday. Following a 1.08% gain on Tuesday, Dogecoin ended the day at $0.2058.

After a mixed the start to the day, Dogecoin rose to a late morning intraday high $0.2138 before hitting reverse.

Dogecoin broke through the first major resistance level at $0.2119 before falling to a late afternoon intraday low $0.2017.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.1975, Dogecoin returned $0.2050 levels to limit the downside.

At the time of writing, Dogecoin was down by 0.49% to $0.2048. A mixed start to the day saw Dogecoin rise to an early morning high $0.2063 before falling to a low $0.2044.

Dogecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

DOGEUSD 290721 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Dogecoin would need to move through the $0.2071 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.2125 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Dogecoin to break back through to $0.21 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Wednesday’s high $0.2138 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another breakout, Dogecoin could test resistance at $0.22 levels before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.2192.

Failure to move through the $0.2071 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.2004 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Dogecoin should steer clear of sub-$0.19 levels. The second major support level at $0.1950 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.2004

Pivot Level: $0.2071

First Major Resistance Level: $0.2125

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3016

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3859

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.5221

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – July 29th, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum rose by 0.01% on Wednesday. Following a 3.23% gain from Tuesday, Ethereum ended the day at $2,300.42.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum fall to a mid-morning intraday low $2,245.10 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $2,195, Ethereum rallied to a late morning intraday high $2,347.88.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $2,364, however, Ethereum briefly fell back to sub-$2,300 and into the red.

A late move back through to $2,300 levels prevented a loss on the day.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down by 0.42% to $2,290.87. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning high $2,301.39 before falling to a low $2,286.48.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 290721 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to move back through the $2,298 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $2,351 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break out from Wednesday’s high $2,347.88.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another broad-based crypto rally, Ethereum could resistance at $2,400 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $2,401.

Failure to move back through the $2,298 pivot would bring the first major support level at $2,248 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should continue to steer clear of sub-$2,100 levels. The second major support level at $2,195 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2,248

Pivot Level: $2,298

First Major Resistance Level: $2,351

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $3,369

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $2,740

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1,725

Litecoin

Litecoin rose by 4.24% on Wednesday. Following a 2.78% gain on Tuesday, Litecoin ended the day at $140.47.

A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin fall to a mid-morning intraday low $132.43 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $130, Litecoin rallied to a late intraday high $142.07.

Litecoin broke through the first major resistance level at $138 and the second major resistance level at $140.

A late pullback, however, saw Litecoin briefly fall back through the second major resistance level before ending the day at $140 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down by 0.96% to $139.12. A bearish start to the day saw Litecoin fall from an early morning high $140.50 to a low $138.82.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 290721 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to avoid the $138 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $144 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break out from Wednesday’s high $142.07.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $145 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended breakout, Litecoin could test resistance at $150. The second major resistance level sits at $148.

A fall through the $138 pivot would bring the first major support level at $135 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Litecoin should continue to steer clear of sub-$125 levels. The second major support level at $129 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $135

Pivot Level: $138

First Major Resistance Level: $144

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $178

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $223

62% FIB Retracement Level: $296

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP surged by 13.80% on Wednesday. Following a 3.44% gain on Tuesday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $0.73364.

Tracking the broader market, Ripple’s XRP fell to a mid-morning intraday low $0.63183 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.6211, Ripple’s XRP rallied to a late morning intraday high $0.75324.

Ripple’s XRP broke through the day’s major resistance levels to end the day at $0.73 levels.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 1.31% to $0.72400. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning high $0.73927 before falling to a low $0.72174.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 290721 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to avoid the $0.7062 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.7806 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break out from Wednesday’s high $0.75324.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another breakout, Ripple’s XRP could test resistance at $0.80 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.8276.

A fall through the $0.7062 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.6592 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.60 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.5848.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.6592

Pivot Level: $0.7062

First Major resistance Level: $0.7806

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.8533

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1.0659

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1.4096

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

European Equities: Economic Data from Germany and the U.S in Focus

Economic Calendar

Thursday, 29th July

German Unemployment Change/Rate JUL

German Inflation Rate MoM Prel JUL

Friday, 30th July

French GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q2

French Household Consumption MoM JUN

German GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2

French Inflation Rate YoY Prel JUL

Spanish GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2

Italian GDP Growth Rate Adv Q2

Eurozone Core Inflation Rate Flash JUL

Eurozone GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2

Italian Inflation Rate MoM Prel JUL

Eurozone Inflation Rate Flash JUL

The Majors

It was a bullish day for the majors on Wednesday.

The CAC40 rallied by 1.18%, with the DAX30 and the EuroStoxx600 ending the day up by 0.33% and by 0.66% respectively.

Following the early in the week sell-off across the Chinese markets, the Hang Seng and CSI300 steadied mid-week, providing support.

Corporate earnings were also in focus, with better-than-expected numbers delivering support to the majors on the day. From France, Capgemini (+3.77%) and Kering (+3.64%) delivered the upside for the CAC40.

The Stats

German consumer sentiment was in focus going into the European open.

For August, the GfK Consumer Confidence Index held steady at -0.30. Economists had forecast a decline to -2.0.

According to the GfK survey,

  • Following a 10-year high, economic expectations moderated in July, falling by 3.8 points to 54.6.
  • Income expectations slipped by 5.1 points to 29 points, which was still up 10 points year-on-year.
  • By contrast, the propensity to buy was on the rise, increasing by 1.4 points to 14.8. In spite of the rise, consumption propensity was still down by almost 28 points year-on-year.

From the U.S

From the U.S, trade data was in focus late in the European session. The numbers had a muted impact on the European majors, however.

There was caution ahead of the post-European close FOMC interest rate decision and press conference.

After the European close, the FED avoided delivering any market shocks.

In line with market expectations, the FED left monetary policy unchanged, while acknowledging that the economic recovery was progressing.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a mixed day for the auto sector on Wednesday. BMW and Daimler fell by 0.08% and by 0.28% respectively. Continental and Volkswagen avoided the red, however, rising by 0.34% and by 0.60% respectively.

It was a bearish day for the banks, however. Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank ended the day down by 0.85% and by 0.35% respectively.

From the CAC, it was also a bearish day for the banks. Soc Gen fell by 0.41%, with BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole declining by 0.16% and by 0.22% respectively.

It was a bullish day for the French auto sector, however. Stellantis NV rose by 0.85%, with Renault ending the day up by 4.54%.

Air France-KLM and Airbus SE also found strong support, rising by 1.37% and by 2.65% respectively.

On the VIX Index

It was back into the red for the VIX on Wednesday, marking the first decline of the week.

Partially reversing a 10.13% jump from Tuesday, the VIX fell by 5.42% to end the day at 18.31.

The NASDAQ rose by 0.70%, while the Dow and the S&P500 ended the day down by 0.36% and by 0.02% respectively.

VIX 290721 Daily Chart

The Day Ahead

It’s a busier day ahead on the economic calendar. German unemployment and inflation figures are due out later today.

We can expect both sets of numbers to influence ahead of the U.S session.

From the U.S, weekly jobless claim and 2nd quarter GDP numbers will also influence.

Away from the economic calendar, corporate earnings and COVID-19 news updates will need monitoring, however.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was up by 28 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

German Consumer Sentiment Stagnates, Weighing on the EUR

Following German business sentiment figures on Monday, German consumer confidence was in focus this morning.

Consumer Sentiment

For August, the GfK Consumer Confidence Index held steady at -0.30. Economists had forecast a decline to -2.0.

According to the GfK survey,

  • Following a 10-year high, economic expectations moderated in July, falling by 3.8 points to 54.6.
  • Income expectations slipped by 5.1 points to 29 points, which was still up 10 points year-on-year.
  • By contrast, the propensity to buy was on the rise, increasing by 1.4 points to 14.8. In spite of the rise, consumption propensity was still down by almost 28 points year-on-year.

Market Impact

Ahead of today’s consumer sentiment figures, the EUR had risen from a pre-stat low $1.18125 to a pre-stat high $1.18276.

In response to today’s stats, the EUR rose to a post-stat and current day high $1.18306 before falling to a post-stat and current day low $1.17919.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.20% to $1.17923.

EURUSD 280721 Hourly Chart

Next Up

U.S trade data ahead of the all-important FED monetary policy decision and press conference…

Bitcoin Price Prediction – Bulls Target $41,500 to Support a Breakout to $45,000

After relatively bullish day for the crypto majors on Tuesday, it was another bullish start to the day for the broader market.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin, BTC to USD, was up by 2.81%to $40,611.5.

A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning low $38,933.0 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $37,416, Bitcoin rallied to a late morning intraday high $40,900.0.

Bitcoin broke through the first major resistance level at $40,587 to test resistance at $41,000 before easing back.

In spite of easing back, Bitcoin avoided a fall back through the first major resistance level through the morning.

The Rest of the Pack

It has been another mixed morning for the broader crypto market.

At the time of writing, Polkadot was down by 0.92% to buck the trend through the morning.

It has been a bullish morning for the rest of the majors, however.

Through the morning, Ripple’s XRP was up by 13.84% to lead the way.

Bitcoin Cash SV (+2.07%), Cardano’s ADA (+2.02%), Crypto.com Coin (+3.94%), Litecoin (+3.99%) also found strong support.

Binance Coin (+0.86%), Chainlink (+0.45%), and Ethereum (+1.12%) trailed the front runners, however.

Through the early hours, the crypto total market fell to an early morning low $1,498bn before rising to a high $1,561bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $1,555bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance fell to an early low 48.70% before rising to a high 49.24%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 49.16%.

For the Afternoon Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall back through the first major resistance level at $40,587 bring the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to breakout from the morning high $40,900.0, however.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the 38.2% FIB and the second major resistance level at $41,673 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could target $45,000 levels. The third major resistance level sits at $44,844.

A fall back through the first major resistance level and a fall through the $38,502 pivot would bring the first major support level at $37,416 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$38,000 levels, however. The second major support level sits at $35,331.

Looking beyond the support and resistance levels, we saw the 50 EMA pull further away from the 100 and 200 EMAs this morning. This supported the morning gains and a run at $41,000 levels.

We also saw the 100 EMA pull further away from the 200 EMA, providing further support to Bitcoin and the crypto bulls.

A further widening of the 50 from 100 and 200 EMAs this afternoon would bring $42,000 levels into play.

Key going into the afternoon will be for Bitcoin to avoid a fall back through the first major resistance level to sub-$40,000 levels.

Economic Data Puts the EUR in Focus ahead of the FED Policy Decision and Press Conference

Earlier in the Day:

It was a relatively quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar was in action in the early part of the day.

For the Aussie Dollar

Inflation was in focus this morning.

In the 2nd quarter, the annual rate of inflation accelerated from 1.1% to 3.8%. Economists had forecast a pickup to 4.0%.

Quarter-on-quarter, consumer prices rose by 0.8%, falling short of a forecasted 1.0% rise. In the 1st quarter, consumer prices had risen by 0.6%.

According to the ABS,

  • The most significant price rises in the June quarter were automotive fuel (+6.5%) and medical and hospital services (+2.4%).
  • Electricity prices rose by 3.3% as a result of the continued unwinding of the Western Australian Government’s A$600 electricity credit.
  • In the 2nd quarter, the trimmed mean annual rate of inflation picked up from 1.1% to 1.6%.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.73726 to $0.73660 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar up by 0.07% to $0.7367.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.08% to ¥109.870 against the U.S Dollar, while the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.12% to $0.69640.

The Day Ahead

For the EUR

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic data front. Consumer sentiment figures from Germany will be in focus early in the European session.

With little else for the markets to consider, we can expect EUR sensitivity to the numbers. While economist have forecast for confidence to improve, the Delta variant could test consumer optimism near-term.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.03% to $1.1820.

For the Pound

It’s another particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats to provide the Pound with direction.

Further demand for the Pound is likely following the IMF’s outlook towards the UK economy.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.06% to $1.3888.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Trade data for June will be in focus later in the day. We don’t expect the numbers to have a material impact on the Dollar and the broader markets, however.

The market focus will be on the FED interest rate decision and press conference scheduled for late in the U.S session.

The question will be whether the FED Chair can continue to convince the markets of unwavering policy support.

At the time of writing, the U.S Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.02% to 92.453.

For the Loonie

It’s relatively quiet day on the economic calendar, with inflation figures in focus.

After a quiet start to the week, we will expect the Loonie to be responsive to the numbers.

Ultimately, however, market risk sentiment and crude oil prices will remain the key drivers on the day.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.13% to C$1.2586 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EOS, Stellar’s Lumen, and Tron’s TRX – Daily Analysis – July 28th, 2021

EOS

EOS rose by 2.31% on Tuesday. Following a modest 0.52% gain on Monday, EOS ended the day at $3.7629.

A mixed start to the day saw EOS slide to an early morning intraday low $3.6029 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $3.5427, EOS rose to an early afternoon intraday high $3.7902.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $3.9098, however, EOS fell back to sub-$3.70 levels before finding late support.

At the time of writing, EOS was down by 1.23% to $3.7165. A mixed start to the day saw EOS rise to an early morning high $3.7656 before falling to a low $3.7135.

EOS left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

EOSUSD 280721 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

EOS would need to move back through the $3.7187 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $3.8344 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for EOS to break back through to $3.80 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, EOS could test resistance at $3.90. The second major resistance level sits at $3.9060.

Failure to move back through the $3.7187 pivot would bring the first major support level at $3.6471 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, EOS should steer clear of sub-$3.55 levels. The second major support level sits at $3.5314.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $3.6471

First Major resistance Level: 3.8344

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $6.52

38% FIB Retracement Level: $9.68

62% FIB Retracement Level: $14.77

Stellar’s Lumen

Stellar’s Lumen rose by 1.00% on Tuesday. Reversing a 0.50% decline from Monday, Stellar’s Lumen ended the at $0.2631.

A bearish start saw Stellar’s Lumen slide to an early morning intraday low $0.2513 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.2499, Stellar’s Lumen rallied to an early afternoon intraday high $0.2703.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.2779, Stellar’s Lumen slid back to sub-$0.26 levels before finding late support.

A late move back through to $0.263 levels delivered the upside for the day.

At the time of writing, Stellar’s Lumen was down by 1.19% to $0.2599. A mixed start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen rise to an early morning high $0.2634 before falling to a low $0.2598.

Stellar’s Lumen left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XLMUSD 280721 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Stellar’s Lumen would need to move back through the $0.2616 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.2718 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Stellar’s Lumen to break out from Tuesday’s high $0.2703.

Barring an extended rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another broad-based crypto rally, Stellar’s Lumen could test resistance at $0.28 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.2806.

Failure to move back through the $0.2616 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.2528 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Stellar’s Lumen should steer clear of sub-$0.24 levels. The second major support level at $0.2426 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.2528

First Major Resistance Level: $0.2718

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3402

38% FIB Retracement Level: $0.4277

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.5690

Tron’s TRX

Tron’s TRX rose by 2.60% on Tuesday. Following a 0.71% gain on Monday, Tron’s TRX ended the day at $0.06003.

A mixed start to the day saw Tron’s TRX fall to an early morning intraday low $0.05671 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.05609, Tron’s TRX rallied to an early afternoon intraday high $0.06111.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.6236, however, Tron’s TRX eased back to end the day at sub-$0.06010 levels.

At the time of writing, Tron’s TRX was up by 0.36% to $0.6024. A mixed start to the day saw Tron’s TRX fall to an early morning low $0.05954 before rising to a high $0.06105

Tron’s TRX left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

TRXUSD 280721 Hourly Chart

For the Day Ahead

Tron’s TRX would need to avoid the $0.05928 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.06186 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Tron’s TRX to move back through to $0.061 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $0.062 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Tron’s TRX could test the second major resistance level at $0.06368.

A fall through the $0.05928 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.05746 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Tron’s TRX should steer clear of the second major support level at $0.05488.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.05746

First Major Resistance Level: $0.06186

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0787

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0989

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1316

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

Thanks, Bob

Dogecoin – Daily Tech Analysis –July 28th, 2021

Dogecoin

Dogecoin rose by 1.08% on Tuesday. Following a 2.77% gain on Monday, Dogecoin ended the day at $0.2059.

A mixed the start of the day saw Dogecoin fall to an early morning intraday low $0.1951 before finding support.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.1895, Dogecoin rallied to an early afternoon intraday high $0.2095.

Falling well short of the first major resistance level at $0.2255, however, Dogecoin slid back to sub-$0.20 levels before ending the day at $0.205 levels.

At the time of writing, Dogecoin was down by 1.21% to $0.2034. A mixed start to the day saw Dogecoin rise to an early morning high $0.2065 before falling to a low $0.2025.

Dogecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

DOGEUSD 280721 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Dogecoin would need to move back through the $0.2035 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.2119 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Dogecoin to break back through to $0.21 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another breakout, Dogecoin could test resistance at $0.22 levels before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.2179.

Failure to move back through the $0.2035 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.1975 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Dogecoin should steer clear of sub-$0.19 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.1891.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.1975

Pivot Level: $0.2035

First Major Resistance Level: $0.2119

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3016

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3859

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.5221

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – July 28th, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, rallied by 6.00% on Tuesday. Following a 5.24% gain on Monday, Bitcoin ended the day at $39,500.0.

A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning intraday low $36,418.0 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $34,804, Bitcoin rallied to a late intraday high $39,589.0.

In spite of the late rally, Bitcoin fell short of the first major resistance level at $40,166.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact, supported by the latest return to $40,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need a sustained fall through the 62% FIB of $27,237 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Tuesday.

Polkadot slid by 2.64%, with Crypto.com Coin falling by 0.50% to buck the trend on the day.

It was a bullish day for the rest of the majors, however.

Chainlink rallied by 7.74% to lead the way once more.

Binance Coin (+3.21%), Bitcoin Cash SV (+4.06%), Ethereum (+3.23%), Litecoin (+2.78%), and Ripple’s XRP (+3.44%) also found strong support.

Cardano’s ADA (+2.00%) and trailed the front runners, however.

Early in the week, the crypto total market fell to a Monday low $1,379bn before rising to a Monday high $1,605bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $1,517bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance fell to a Monday low 47.07% before jumping to an early Wednesday high 48.79%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 48.77%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 0.54% to $39,285.0. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning high $39,590.4 before falling to a low $39,095.6.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

Crypto.com Coin (+2.51%), Polkadot (+0.44%), and Ripple’s XRP (+0.21%) found early support.

It was a bearish start for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Chainlink was down by 0.71% to lead the way down.

BTCUSD 280721 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid the $38,502 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $40,587 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break back through to $40,000 levels.

Barring a broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $41,673.

A fall through the $38,502 pivot would bring the first major support level at $37,416 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of the second major support level at $35,331.

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – July 28th, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum rose by 3.23% on Tuesday. Following a 1.64% gain on Monday, Ethereum ended the day at $2,300.59.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum fall to an early morning intraday low $2,152.00 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $2,122, Ethereum rallied to an early afternoon intraday high $2,321.00.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $2,387, however, Ethereum eased back to end the day at sub-$2,310.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down by 0.54% to $2,288.15. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning high $2,305.76 before falling to a low $2,287.74.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 280721 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid the $2,258 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $2,364 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to breakout from Tuesday’s high $2,321.00.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $2,350 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another broad-based crypto rally, Ethereum could resistance at $2,500 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $2,427.

A fall through the $2,258 pivot would bring the first major support level at $2,194 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should continue to steer clear of sub-$2,000 levels. The second major support level at $2,089 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2,194

Pivot Level: $2,258

First Major Resistance Level: $2,364

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $3,369

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $2,740

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1,725

Litecoin

Litecoin rose by 2.78% on Tuesday. Following a 2.64% gain on Monday, Litecoin ended the day at $134.74.

A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin fall to an early morning intraday low $127.43 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $125, Litecoin rallied to a late intraday high $135.19.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $139, however, Litecoin eased back to end the day at $134 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down by 0.59% to $133.95. A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $135.16 before falling to a low $133.87.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 280721 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to avoid the $133 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $138 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break out from $135 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended breakout, Litecoin could test the second major resistance level at $140.

A fall through the $133 pivot would bring the first major support level at $130 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Litecoin should continue to steer clear of sub-$120 levels. The second major support level at $125 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $130

Pivot Level: $133

First Major Resistance Level: $138

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $178

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $223

62% FIB Retracement Level: $296

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP rose by 3.44% on Tuesday. Following Monday’s 3.06% gain, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $0.64500.

A bearish start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP fall to an early morning intraday low $0.61312 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.5955, Ripple’s XRP rose to a mid-day intraday high $0.65307.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.6671, however, Ripple’s XRP fell back to $0.62 levels before ending the day at $0.645 levels.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 0.45% to $0.64207. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning high $0.64674 before falling to a low $0.64207.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 280721 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to avoid the $0.6371 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.6610 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break out from Tuesday’s high $0.65307.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another breakout, Ripple’s XRP could test resistance at $0.70 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.6770.

A fall through the $0.6371 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.6211 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.60 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.5971.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.6211

Pivot Level: $0.6371

First Major resistance Level: $0.6610

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.8533

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1.0659

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1.4096

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

European Equities: German Economic Data and Sentiment Towards the FED to Influence

Economic Calendar

Tuesday, 27th July

France Jobseekers Total JUN

Wednesday, 28th July

German GfK Consumer Confidence AUG

Thursday, 29th July

German Unemployment Change/Rate JUL

German Inflation Rate MoM Prel JUL

Friday, 30th July

French GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q2

French Household Consumption MoM JUN

German GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2

French Inflation Rate YoY Prel JUL

Spanish GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2

Italian GDP Growth Rate Adv Q2

Eurozone Core Inflation Rate Flash JUL

Eurozone GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2

Italian Inflation Rate MoM Prel JUL

Eurozone Inflation Rate Flash JUL

The Majors

It was a bearish day for the majors on Tuesday.

The CAC40 fell by 0.71%, with the DAX30 and the EuroStoxx600 ending the day down by 0.64% and by 0.54% respectively.

There were no major stats from the Eurozone to provide the majors with direction in the day.

Market sentiment towards the rout across the Chinese markets weighed on the majors going into the open.

Providing some support late in the day was the IMF’s latest economic growth forecasts. For 2022, the IMF revised up its growth forecasts by 0.5 percentage points to 5.6% for advanced economies.

Economic data from the U.S was also market positive. U.S consumer confidence took an unexpected jump in July, aligned with the IMF’s outlook towards the U.S economy.

The Stats

Economic data was limited to jobseeker numbers from France, which had a muted impact on the European majors.

In June, the total number of job seekers declined from 3,490.1k to 3,417.6k. Economists had forecast a decline to 3,430.1k.

From the U.S

Durable goods orders and consumer confidence figures were in focus late in the session.

In June, durable goods orders increased by 0.8%, following a 3.2% rise in May. Durable goods orders ex transportation increased by 0.3%, following a 0.5% rise in May. Economists had forecast increases of 1.9% and 0.9% respectively.

Consumer confidence strengthened in July, with the CB Consumer Confidence Index rising from 128.9 to 129.1. Economists had forecast a decline to 126.0.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a bearish day for the auto sector on Tuesday. BMW and Volkswagen slid by 1.73% and by 1.86% respectively, with Continental and Daimler falling by 1.54% and by 1.52% respectively.

It was also a bearish day for the banks. Deutsche Bank declined by 0.52%, with Commerzbank ending the day down by 2.70%.

From the CAC, it was a bearish day for the banks. Credit Agricole fell by 1.09%, with BNP Paribas and Soc Gen declining by 0.91% and by 0.98% respectively.

It was also a bearish day for the French auto sector. Stellantis NV and Renault ended the day with modest losses of 0.20% and 0.13% respectively.

Air France-KLM slipped by 0.07%, while Airbus SE rose by 0.29%.

On the VIX Index

It was a 2nd consecutive day in the green for the VIX on Tuesday.

Following a 2.21 gain on Monday, the VIX jumped by 10.13% to end the day at 19.36.

The NASDAQ fell by 1.21%, with the Dow and the S&P500 ending the day down by 0.24% and by 0.47% respectively.

VIX 280721 Daily Chart

The Day Ahead

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. German consumer confidence will be in focus going into the European session.

Economists have forecast for the GfK Consumer Confidence Index to fall from -0.3 to -2.0 for August.

From the U.S, there are no material stats due out to provide the majors with direction. While there are no stats to consider, the markets will be looking ahead to the FED interest rate decision and press conference. The European majors will need to wait until Thursday’s session, however, to respond.

Away from the economic calendar, corporate earnings and COVID-19 news updates will also influence, however.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was down by 87 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

Bitcoin Price Prediction – A Return to $40,000 Would Bring $45,000 into View

After Monday’s breakout session that fizzled out late in the day, Bitcoin and the broader market had a mixed session this morning.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin, BTC to USD, was up by 0.53%to $37,468.8.

A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning high $37,525.0 before hitting reverse

Falling well short of the first major resistance level at $40,166, Bitcoin fell back to an early morning low $36,418.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $34,804, however, Bitcoin found early support to return to $37,000 levels.

BTCUSD 270721 Hourly Chart

The Rest of the Pack

It has been another mixed morning for the broader crypto market.

At the time of writing, Crypto.com Coin was down by 2.09% to lead the way down.

Litecoin (-0.75%) and Polkadot (-1.16%) also bucked the trend early on.

It has been a bullish morning for the rest of the majors, however.

Through the morning, Chainlink was up by 3.00% to lead the way once more.

Binance Coin (+1.39%), Cardano’s ADA (+0.76%), Ethereum (+0.52%), and Ripple’s XRP (+1.34%) also found morning support.

Bitcoin Cash SV was flat for the morning, however.

Through the early hours, the crypto total market rose to an early morning high $1,465bn before falling to a low $1,417bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $1,464bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance fell to an early low 48.03% before rising to a high 48.43%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 48.05%.

For the Afternoon Ahead

Bitcoin would need to move through the $37,699 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $40,166 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break back through to $40,000 levels.

Barring a broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Monday’s $40,595.0 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at $45,000 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $43,061. Bitcoin would need plenty of support, however, to breakout from the 38.2% FIB of $41,592.

Failure to move through the $37,699 pivot would bring the first major support level at $34,804 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$35,000 levels, however. The second major support level sits at $32,337.

Looking beyond the support and resistance levels, we saw the 50 EMA flatten on the 100 and 200 EMAs this morning. This led to the relatively range-bound session, with Bitcoin failing to break back through to $40,000 levels.

We saw the 100 EMA pull away from the 200 EMA, however, providing support to Bitcoin and the crypto bulls.

A further narrowing of the 50 on 100 and 200 EMAs this afternoon would bring sub-$36,000 levels into play.

Key going into the afternoon will be for Bitcoin to break through to $37,699 pivot to bring resistance levels into play.

Following late Monday’s reversal, Bitcoin would need to avoid sub-$35,000 levels else face a sharp pullback.

Bitcoin Fork Explained

Since the Beginning

In response to the global financial crisis of 2008, Satoshi Nakamoto ventured into the unknown and delivered the global financial markets with Bitcoin and blockchain tech.

Bitcoin’s creator set on a path to bring to end the control that central banks held over the global financial markets.

The concept and ideology of blockchain and ultimately Bitcoin was to allow the community to advance the technology on a united front in a bid to bring down central banks and the world’s largest financial institutions.

Things have not turned out, perhaps, how Satoshi had intended.

Miners vs Developers

In order to police and keep Bitcoin and the blockchain world moving forward, Bitcoin and the crypto community, not only needed developers, but also miners to verify transactions on the Bitcoin network and other crypto networks.

In contrast to Satoshi’s ambition to decentralize, miners and developers, have on occasion, fallen into disagreement over blockchain enhancements and/or developments.

For Bitcoin, minors had cornered the market with mining farms, leaving want-to-be minors out in the cold. This also meant that the income stream was just too large to give up control. Decentralized became centralized in a matter of years.

As a result, the Bitcoin community and the crypto community became divided between those in search of crypto income and the ideologists looking to continue to prize control from governments, central banks, and the world’s largest financial institutions.

This divergence in view and intent ultimately led to the splitting of crypto communities. The crypto technical term for this being a “Fork.”

The Fork

In the crypto sphere, there are two types of forks that investors need to be concerned with. The first and generally of little impact to value and the broader market are soft forks.

In the event of a soft fork, only one blockchain remains valid, with users adopting the changes made to the blockchain.

By contrast, hard forks can have a material impact on price in the lead up and immediate aftermath of a fork.

In a hard fork event, both blockchains coexist. The coexistence occurs from nodes continuing to support the original blockchain.

In some instances, therefore, both blockchains can coexist and remain prominent in the crypto market place. This is when there is sufficient support for both the old and the new versions.

In some cases, however, nodes may eventually shift to the new version, leaving the old blockchain obsolete.

From an investor perspective, an important feature of a hard fork is that holders of the original crypto are awarded the new coins upon completion of the hard fork.

In the case of a successful hard fork, where both chains coexist, the value of the coins can increase substantially.

For this reason, anticipation and an eventual hard fork can have a material impact on price and crypto market volatility.

Since Bitcoin’s creation, the total number of cryptos in the market place have surged to a whopping 11,064 based on numbers from CoinMarketCap.

Notably, in spite of numerous soft and hard forks, Bitcoin (“BTC”) continues to be the dominant crypto.

The 2017 Convergence

Back in late 2017, we did see Bitcoin’s dominance converge with the likes of Ethereum. This coincided with Bitcoin’s first major hard fork, which resulted in the creation of Bitcoin Cash (“BCH”).

While Bitcoin Cash (“BCH”) enjoyed a lengthy period in the top 10 by market cap, a Bitcoin Cash hard fork in late 2018 led to the creation of Bitcoin Cash ABC and Bitcoin Cash SV.

The Bitcoin community have not been alone in dealing with hard forks.

Ethereum hard forked, leading to the creation of Ethereum Classic. In this case, Ethereum Classic maintained the old blockchain history. We also saw Litecoin hard fork, leading to the creation of Litecoin Cash.

In spite of disagreements between respective developers and the communities, however, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin have all remained the dominant chain.

Lessons Learned

Major disagreements between developers and communities can lead to significant disruption. More importantly, market stability also comes into question.

Since the headline grabbing hard forks of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin, the number of notable hard forks have fallen.

Developers and nodes working together to achieve Satoshi’s ambition of toppling central banks is now a more plausible outcome. Infighting had led to significant disruption and ultimately a marked decline in value.

Stability across the major crypto blockchains have supported the increased adoption. The increased adoption contributed to Bitcoin’s surge to an all-time high $64,829.0, struck in April 2021.

While volatility across the market place will unlikely abate anytime soon. The absence of hard forks and infighting, however, would serve the crypto community and investors well in the short to medium term.

Economic Data from the U.S to Put the Dollar in the Spotlight

Earlier in the Day:

It was a particularly quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. There were no material stats to provide the markets with direction early in the day.

For the Majors

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.13% to ¥110.250 against the U.S Dollar, while the Aussie Dollar down by 0.07% to $0.7380. The Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.14% to $0.6994.

The Day Ahead

For the EUR

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic data front. There are no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide the EUR with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the EUR in the hands of market risk sentiment on the day, with COVID-19 remaining a key area of focus.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.01% to $1.1804.

For the Pound

It’s also particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats to provide the Pound with direction.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.02% to $1.3821.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Durable and core durable goods and consumer sentiment figures are due out later today.

Expect core durable goods orders and consumer confidence figures to be the key drivers later in the day.

At the time of writing, the U.S Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.04% to 92.6140.

For the Loonie

It’s another quiet day on the economic calendar, with no major stats due out to provide the Loonie with direction.

The lack of stats will continue to leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk sentiment on the day.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.04% to C$1.2546 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.