EUR/USD ABC Pullback in Wave 4 After Bearish Freefall

The EUR/USD is building a bullish pullback after a bearish freefall last week – as we expected. Is the downtrend already over or will there be another bearish price swing?

To answer this question, the article analyses the Elliott Wave and Fibonacci patterns.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

EUR/USD 22.06.2021 4 hour chart

The EUR/USD bearish breakout and strong impulse is typical for a wave 3 (orange) pattern:

  1. The current pullback is probably a wave 4 (orange). It is expected to be a typical wave 4, which is shallow, choppy, and lengthy.
  2. Price action has already made a pullback to the 23.6% Fibonacci level.
  3. But usually price retraces back (green arrows) to the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
  4. A bearish bounce (orange arrows) at the shallow Fib levels confirms a wave 4-5 (orange) pattern.
  5. After that, a re-break below the 21 ema zone could confirm the downtrend continuation.
  6. A break above the 50% Fib places this Elliott Wave outlook on hold whereas a very deep retracement invalidates it (red circle).

On the 1 hour chart, price action made a decline below the Wizz 7 target, which indicates how impulsive the bearish swing really was:

  1. A bullish ABC (green) pattern is expected in wave 4 (orange).
  2. A bearish bounce (red arrows) is expected at the 38.2% Fibonacci.
  3. A break below the support line (green) could indicate an immediate breakout (dotted red arrow).
  4. Sideways price action (orange/green arrows) could indicate a range followed by a bearish breakout.
  5. The main targets are located at 1.1750-1.18.

EUR/USD 22.06.2021 1 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis & Setups 21 – 22 June 2021

The EUR/USD made a strong bearish breakout and impulsive price swing within the expected wave 3. Now a shallow pullback and continuation will probably take place in wave 4. The GBP/USD also showed a bearish breakout within a wave 3 and is expecting a wave 4-5 pattern too.

If you think our videos, analysis, and education can help you become a better trader, then you can ask your own questions via our form and we will answer them in the weekly live webinar every Tuesday.

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Overview

The EUR/USD is expected to test the shallow Fibonacci retracement levels like the 38.2% Fib within the wave 4. A bearish bounce is expected to push price action for a new low.

The GBP/USD should follow the same pattern and show two more lower lows before finding a potential strong support zone.

Check out the video below for the full analysis and trade plans on 21 – 22 June 2021:

EUR/USD, GBP/USD technical analysis: patterns, trends, key S&R levels

  • Explanation of potential trade ideas both up and down
  • Beginner friendly, explaining concepts in more detail

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Video

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik
CTA

 

EUR/USD Extends Wave 3 but Pullback in Wave 4 Expected

The EUR/USD has reached the -161.8% Fibonacci target (blue box). This confirms the development of a wave 3 (orange) of wave 3 (grey) as mentioned in our analysis yesterday.

This article will analyse when to expect a pullback, what kind of retracement and how deep based on the Elliott Wave and Fibonacci patterns.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

EUR/USD 18.06.2021 4 hour chart

The EUR/USD is showing a very strong bearish impulse (orange box). The bearish 4 hour candles are mostly bearish, large and dominant in size, and also closing near the candle lows.

Despite the arrow down, price action is eventually expected to build some type of pullback now or with the next lower low:

  1. A pullback now at the -161.8% Fibonacci target is likely. Price action has probably completed a wave 3 (blue) and a pullback in wave 4 (blue) is expected.
  2. Usually wave 4s are shallow and choppy pullbacks. The main resistance and bounce levels are the 23.6% Fib and especially the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
  3. A break above the 50% Fib places the Elliott Wave outlook on hold (orange circle). A deep retracement invalidates it (red circle).
  4. The -27.2% Fibonacci target is located at 1.1825. This is where another wave 4 pattern (orange) could appear.
  5. The bearish reversal is part of a larger wave ABC (pink) or 123 pattern on the daily chart.

On the 1 hour chart, the wave 3 (blue) impulse is very impulsive as price action fails to even retrace back to the 21 ema low:

  1. A break above the 21 ema zone could indicate the start of the wave 4 (blue) pattern.
  2. A second re-break below the 21 ema zone could indicate the end of the wave 4 and the start of wave 5 (blue) of wave 5 (green) of wave 3 (orange).
  3. As mentioned on the 4 hour charts, a shallow retracement is expected in wave 4 (blue).

EUR/USD 18.06.2021 1 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Strong Bearish Impulse Confirms Wave 3 Pattern

Testerday’s EUR/USD daily candle ended very bearish after breaking below the 21 ema low – as expected in our EUR/USD video. Bearish is now firmly in a bearish price swing.

This article will review how far the bearish price swing can last based on the key Elliott Wave and Fibonacci patterns.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

EUR/USD 17.06.2021 daily chart

The EUR/USD has made the final bearish turn as expected. The bullish wave B (pink) is therefore complete and a bearish price swing is now developing:

  1. The bearish price swing is expected to be a wave C (pink) of a larger ABC (pink) in wave 4 (purple).
  2. The wave 4 (purple) remains valid as long as price action stays above 1.17 and at the very least 1.15.
  3. A break below the 1.15 support indicates that wave 4 (purple) is not likely anymore. In that case, price is not building an ABC (pink) but a bearish 123 pattern.
  4. All of the Fibonacci support levels could be support but the main reversal levels are the 88.6% Fib and the previous bottom (blue box).

On the 4 hour chart, price action has broken the bottom (dotted green) of the downtrend channel:

  1. The bearish breakout below the support trend line (dotted green) and the 21 ema low helped confirm the bearish price swing.
  2. The strong bearish impulse is typical for a wave 3 (blue). The break below the -61.8% Fibonacci target helps confirm the wave 3 pattern rather than a wave C.
  3. The wave 3 (blue) is probably part of a larger wave 3 (orange) and wave 3 (grey).
  4. The main targets are the -1.618% FIb at 1.1915, the -2% Fib at 1.1865 and -2.618% Fib at 1.1782.
  5. Eventually a pullback to a shallow Fib should take place as part of a wave 4 retracement.

EUR/USD 17.06.2021 4 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis & Setups 16 – 18 June 2021

The EUR/USD is looking for a bearish breakout below the 21 ema zone but price action will also need to break the channel bottom to confirm a wave 3. The GBP/USD is testing a key resistance zone.

If you think our videos, analysis, and education can help you become a better trader, then you can ask your questions and we will answer them in the weekly live webinar every Tuesday.

UR/USD & GBP/USD Overview

The EUR/USD is either building a bearish ABC or 123 pattern and the 1.20 support zone will be critical for that decision.

The GBP/USD has many support and resistance levels closeby. A bounce setup seems to have the best odds.

Check out the video below for the full analysis and trade plans on 16 – 18 June 2021:

EUR/USD, GBP/USD technical analysis: patterns, trends, key S&R levels

  • Explanation of potential trade ideas both up and down
  • Beginner friendly, explaining concepts in more detail

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Video

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik
CTA

 

FedEx Completes Wave 4 Pullback at 38.2% Fibonacci

The FedEx Corporation (FDX) has made a bullish bounce as expected in our previous analysis. But the rebound was even stronger than expected because price action broke above the top.

How far can the uptrend go? Let’s review the key Elliott Wave and Fibonacci patterns.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

Fedex 16.06.2021 daily chart

The FDX daily chart is showing a strong uptrend with all the moving averages bullishly aligned:

  1. The previous price swing is a wave 3 (purple) of wave 3 (red) due to its steep angle.
  2. The pullback was indeed a wave 4 (purple) which bounced at the 144 ema.
  3. The current higher high is expected to be part of a wave 5 (purple) of wave 3 (red).
  4. Within the wave 5 (purple), price action is building a 5 wave (pink) pattern. The current push up seems to be a wave 3 (pink).
  5. The current pullback could be a wave 4 (pink) as long as price action stays above the 50% Fibonacci level.
  6. A break below the 50% Fib places it on hold (orange circle) and a deeper break invalidates it (red circle).
  7. The main targets are located at the -27.2% Fibonacci level at $340 and the -61.8% Fibonacci level at $365.

On the 4 hour chart, price action could be testing the support trend line (green):

  1. A bullish bounce took place at the 38.2% Fibonacci level, which makes a wave 4 (green) likely.
  2. A bullish breakout above the 21 ema high could confirm the uptrend continuation (green arrows).
  3. Price action should stay above the 50% Fibonacci level if this is indeed a wave 4 (green).
  4. A bullish bounce (blue arrow) could take place at the 50% Fib as well if price action gets there.

Fedex 16.06.2021 4 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

US30 Enters Range But Remains Bullish and Aims at $36-38k

The Dow Jones Index (US30) has been taking a few weeks break since its last high. But the consolidation zone is simply going sideways, which is a bullish signal.

This article reviews the bullish scenarios, targets, and invalidation levels.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

Dow Jones 15.06.2021 daily chart

The US30 daily chart has been in a strong uptrend. All of the moving averages are neatly aligned with lots of space in between. This indicates a strong momentum and trend:

  1. The bullish price swing is therefore likely some type of wave 3 (grey).
  2. Considering the overall uptrend strength, the wave 3 is probably a wave 3 on a higher degree (pink/purple).
  3. The current sideways consolidation fits well within the expected wave 4 (grey) pattern.
  4. A break above the 21 ema high could confirm a bullish breakout (blue arrow) and the end of the wave 4 and start of wave 5 (grey).
  5. A break below the support trend line (green) and 21 ema low could indicate a pullback (orange arrow).
  6. The pullback will test the previous low or 38.2% Fibonacci level where a bullish bounce is expected (green arrows).
  7. A deeper pullback places the wave 4 (grey) on hold (orange circle) and a very deep retracement invalidates it (red circle).
  8. The main targets are $36,600 and $38,000.

On the 4 hour chart, price action is testing the long-term moving averages:

  1. A bearish breakout (orange arrows) could indicate a deeper wave C (green) within wave 4 (grey).
  2. The main targets for the bearish wave C (green) are the Fibonacci levels where a bullish bounce could take place (green arrow).
  3. A bullish breakout (blue arrows) could indicate an immediate uptrend continuation.

Dow Jones 15.06.2021 4 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis & Setups 14 – 16 June 2021

The EUR/USD is testing the Fibonacci resistance zone after a strong bearish impulse. The GBP/USD is testing a key support zone after creating a choppy sideways zone.

If you think our videos, analysis, and education can help you become a better trader, then you can ask questions via our form and we will answer them in the weekly live webinar every Tuesday.

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Overview

The EUR/USD needs a clear bearish bounce at the shallow Fibonacci levels to confirm a potential bearish wave 3-4 pattern.

The GBP/USD needs a bearish breakout below the support zone or a bearish bounce at the resistance zone.

Check out the video below for the full analysis and trade plans on 14 – 16 June 2021:

EUR/USD, GBP/USD technical analysis: patterns, trends, key S&R levels

  • Explanation of potential trade ideas both up and down
  • Beginner friendly, explaining concepts in more detail

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Video

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik
CTA

 

Bitcoin Breaks Above 21 Ema Resistance in 5 Waves

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) made a bullish bounce at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. It was followed by a bullish breakout above the 21 ema resistance zone as expected in our analysis.

This article analyses the expected Elliott Wave and FIbonacci patterns on the Bitcoin 4 hour and 1 hour charts.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

BTC/USD 14.06.2021 4 hour chart

The BTC/USD made a strong bullish reversal after testing the previous bottom and Fibonacci retracement levels:

  1. The bullish reversal is probably part of a ABC (green) wave or even a potential 123.
  2. Price action managed to break above the resistance trend line (dotted orange) during the weekend.
  3. But price action still faces hefty resistance (red box) from the previous top and long-term moving averages.
  4. A bearish bounce (orange arrows) could retest the support again where a bullish bounce is expected (green arrows).
  5. A bullish breakout (blue arrow) could indicate an immediate push up. A bull flag pattern (grey arrows) could indicate even more upside (purple arrow).
  6. A break below the support line (green) places it on hold (orange circle) and a break below the bottom invalidates it (red circle).

On the 1 hour chart, price action is showing strong bullish momentum:

  1. A 5 wave pattern (black 1-5) seems to be visible.
  2. The bullish 5 waves could complete a wave 1 (blue).
  3. A bearish ABC (black) could indicate a wave 2 (blue).
  4. The Fibonacci retracement levels of wave 2 could act as support (blue arrows).
  5. Especially the support zone (green box) could indicate a bounce due to the inverted head and shoulders pattern.
  6. All Fibonacci levels are potentially support levels.
  7. A break below the 88.6% Fib makes it less likely (orange circle) whereas a break below the bottom invalidates it (red circle).

Bitcoin 14.06.2021 1 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Siemens Bullish Bounce After Bearish ABC Pattern Completed

The Siemens (SIE) stock price made a bearish pullback after failing to break the top. Price action made an ABC pattern rather than full uptrend as our previous analysis expected.

The overall uptrend, however, remains valid. The bounce at the 38.2% Fibonacci level suggests an Elliott Wave 4 pattern.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

Siemens 10.06.2021 daily chart

Siemens seems to have completed a bullish 5 waves (orange) in a wave 3 (grey) momentum:

  1. The current ABC pullback (orange) has probably completed a wave 4 (grey) at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
  2. The retracement in wave 4 is now a simple correction but it could expand into a longer ABC pattern as well.
  3. A bullish breakout (green arrows) above the 21 ema zone could indicate a retest of the previous top.
  4. A bearish breakout (orange arrows) below the support trend line (green) could indicate a retest of the bottom or 38.2% Fibonacci level.
  5. A bullish bounce is expected at the Fib level (blue arrows).
  6. Only a deeper retracement below the 50% Fib places this wave outlook on hold (orange circle) or invalidates it (red circle).

On the 4 hour chart, Siemens seems to have completed the 5 wave pattern (green) in the wave C (orange):

  1. A 5 wave leading diagonal (green) seems to be unfolding in wave 1 (orange).
  2. A bearish ABC pattern could develop in wave 2 (orange).
  3. The wave 2 is expected to bounce (blue arrows) at the Fibonacci levels.
  4. A break below (dotted orange arrows) the 100% Fibonacci level indicates (red circle) one more lower low. It invalidates the wave 1-2 (orange) pattern.
  5. But a bullish bounce is still expected at the Fibonacci levels around $140 (dotted blue arrow).
  6. A bullish breakout (green arrows) before the pullback occurs indicate an immediate uptrend.

Siemens 10.06.2021 4 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis & Setups 9 – 11 June 2021

The EUR/USD is moving sideways and a breakout is needed to confirm the next price swing. A bullish breakout should retest the resistance zone again. The GBP/USD has a better chance of moving up but it faces hefty resistance.

If you think our videos, analysis, and education can help you become a better trader, then you can ask your own questions via our form and we will answer them in the weekly live webinar every Tuesday.

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Overview

The EUR/USD bearish breakout could confirm the end of the bullish wave B and the start of the wave C down.

The GBP/USD is stuck in between support from the moving averages and resistance from the double top pattern.

Check out the video below for the full analysis and trade plans on 9 – 11 June 2021:

EUR/USD, GBP/USD technical analysis: patterns, trends, key S&R levels

  • Explanation of potential trade ideas both up and down
  • Beginner friendly, explaining concepts in more detail

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Video

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik
CTA

 

Bitcoin Retests Low and Bounces at Key 78.6% Fibonacci

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has slowed down in the past 2 weeks. Price action is moving sideways and failing to break below the bottom or above the top.

Based on the Elliott Wave patterns and Fibonacci levels, we do expect a bullish reversal to occur in the near future. Price has in fact already made such a first bounce at the 78.6% Fibonacci level as mentioned in our previous analysis.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

Bitcoin 09.06.2021 daily chart

BTC/USD is retesting the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support level. Yesterday’s daily candle saw a bullish wick emerge after hitting that Fibonacci level again. Here is the context and what we expect next:

  1. A deep ABC (orange) correction is probably part of a larger ABC (grey) pattern in wave 4 (pink).
  2. The recent low and bounce at the 61.8% Fib probably indicates the end of the wave A (grey) and start of the wave B (grey).
  3. The bearish move to test the bottom does not change anything to this outlook. Only a break below the bottom places it on hold (orange circle) whereas a deep retracement invalidates it (red circle).
  4. A breakout (green arrows) above the resistance zone (red box) and 21 emas should confirm a push up to test the previous top.
  5. Eventually an uptrend (blue arrow) is expected to take price for a higher high and confirm the 345 waves (pink).

On the 4 hour chart, price action is probably building an ABC (green) or 123 pattern:

  1. The ABC or 123 remains valid as long as price stays above the 100% Fib and bottom.
  2. A break below the bottom invalidates it (red circle).
  3. A break above (green arrows) the resistance trend line (orange) and 21 ema zone could indicate a higher low and soon even a higher high.
  4. The 78.6% FIbonacci retracement level (blue box) is a key support zone.

Bitcoin 09.06.2021 4 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Uptrend Offers Similar Wave-4 Pullbacks on Two Time-Frames

Gold (XAU/USD) made a strong bullish bounce at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This is probably a wave 4 pullback, which means that more uptrend is still expected.

This article reviews the Elliott Wave patterns and Fibonacci levels on the XAU/USD weekly and 4 hour charts.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

Gold 08.06.2021_ weekly chart

The XAU/USD seems to have completed a strong bullish impulse, which has been labelled a wave 3 (purple). An ABC pattern (pink) took price back to the 38.2% Fibonacci level, which acted as a support zone. Price action broke above the 21 ema zone and resistance trend line (dotted orange) as well. Let’s analyse what to expect next:

  1. The bullish impulse and breakout (blue box) above the 21 ema zone is strong. A retest of the previous top is likely (first green arrow).
  2. A sideways bull flag pattern (orange arrows) could indicate that the uptrend is dominant (second green arrow).
  3. A strong bearish bounce (dotted orange arrow) indicates that the wave 4 (purple) pullback will expand into a larger and more complex ABC pattern.
  4. The previous bottom should still act as support (dotted blue arrow).
  5. The main targets are the -27.2% and -61.8% Fibonacci levels at $2319 and 2634. Round levels like $2250 and $ 2500 are also targets.
  6. A break below the 50% Fib places this Elliott Wave outlook on hold (orange circle) and a deep retracement invalidates it (red circle).

On the 4 hour chart, price action seems to be developing a strong bullish impulse. This is probably a wave 3 (grey) of a wave 3 (pink):

  1. The pullback respected the 38.2% Fibonacci as well, which is probably a wave 4 (orange).
  2. A bearish ABC (green) pattern is expected to develop within wave 4 (orange).
  3. A bullish bounce is expected at support (blue arrows).
  4. A bull flag pattern (grey arrows) could indicate an immediate uptrend (green arrow).
  5. A break below the 50% Fib places this Elliott Wave outlook on hold (orange circle) and a deep retracement invalidates it (red circle).
  6. The main targets are the Fibonacci targets at $1960, $2016, $2078, $ 2179, and $2234 for the wave 3 (grey).

Gold 08.06.2021 4 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis & Setups 6 – 7 June 2021

The EUR/USD made a bullish ABC followed by a bearish bounce as expected. But the bearish impulse ran out of steam soon and price action will need a breakout to decide the next step. We also review the Elliott Waves on the GBP/USD and when to expect from the Cable.

If you think our videos, analysis, and education can help you become a better trader, then you can ask your own questions via our form and we will answer them in the weekly live webinar every Tuesday.

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Overview

The EUR/USD needs to break below the 61.8% Fibonacci for a bearish wave 3 or break above the 21 ema zones for a bullish wave 4-5 of wave C.

The GBP/USD remains choppy and impulsive. A bearish reversal at resistance or breakout followed by a bear flag offers the most potential this week.

Check out the video below for the full analysis and trade plans on 6 – 7 June 2021:

EUR/USD, GBP/USD technical analysis: patterns, trends, key S&R levels

  • Explanation of potential trade ideas both up and down
  • Beginner friendly, explaining concepts in more detail

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Video

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik
CTA

 

USD/JPY Bearish ABC Pattern in Wave 4 Respects 50% Fib

The USD/JPY has been in a range for several years. Price action is probably unfolding in an ABCDE triangle chart pattern (purple).

This article analyses the Elliott Wave, Fibonacci, and chart patterns for more guidance on what to expect on the daily and monthly charts.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

USD/JPY 07.06.2021 monthly chart

The USD/JPY seems to have completed 5 bullish waves (purple) in a wave A or 1 (red). The current correction could be an ABCDE (purple) pattern in the wave B or 2 pullback (red):

  1. A bearish ABC (pink) pattern is completed in wave C (purple).
  2. Now price action seems to be building an ABC (pink) in wave D (purple).
  3. A break (green arrow) above the resistance trend line (orange) could confirm it.
  4. The wave D (purple) remains valid as long as price action remains below the top of wave B (red box).
  5. The wave E (purple) remains valid as long as price action remains above the bottom of wave C.
  6. A breakout (dotted orange arrow) below the support trend line (green) invalidates the bearish ABCDE but does not invalidate the wave B or 2.
  7. Only a break below the bottom invalidates (red circle) the AB or 12 (red).
  8. A bullish bounce (blue arrow) after an ABC in wave E (purple) could confirm the uptrend.

On the daily chart, price action seems to be building a correction after a bullish momentum:

  1. The bullish impulse is probably a wave 3 (green).
  2. The pullback is moving sideways, which is typical for a wave 4 (green).
  3. The bullish price action has been choppy so the current leg is probably a wave B (blue).
  4. A larger ABC or ABCDE (blue) correction could take place in wave 4 (green) as long as price action remains above the 61.8% Fibonacci level.
  5. A bearish bounce (red arrows) at the top could indicate a deeper wave B.
  6. A bearish breakout and bounce above the bottom (grey arrows) could indicate an ABCDE triangle.
  7. A bearish breakout (orange arrows) below the support (green) and bottom could indicate an ABC (blue) pattern.
  8. A break below the long-term moving averages and 1.8% Fibonacci levels puts the wave 4 (green) on hold. In that case, a wave C (pink) could have been completed at the recent high and a bearish ABC down is taking place in wave E (purple).

USD/JPY 07.06.2021 daily chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

DAX30 Completes Wave 4 and Bulls Aim at $16,000 Target

The German stock index DAX 30 made a new higher high after a bullish bounce at the 38.2-50% Fibonacci retracement levels – as expected in our previous DAX analysis.

The DAX 30 is now testing the resistance trend line (orange) again. Will price action make a bullish breakout or a deeper retracement?

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

DAX 04.06.2021 4 hour chart

The DAX 30 remains in a long-term uptrend. The Elliott Wave outlook even indicates a potential wave 3 (pink) of wave 3 (purple). That said, price action could be completing a wave 5 (grey) soon or with the next higher high:

  1. A bullish breakout (green arrows) above the resistance trend lines (orange) could indicate one more push higher.
  2. The targets are located at 15,740, 15,900, 16,000, and 16,100.
  3. A bearish breakout (orange arrows) below the support trend line (green) could indicate the end of the wave 5 (grey) of wave 3 (pink) and the start of a wave 4 (pink).
  4. The long-term moving averages could still provide a bounce (blue arrows).

On the 1 hour chart, the DAX 30 chart seems to be completing a bearish ABC (blue) correction in wave 4 (orange):

  1. Price action made a lengthy ABC correction (blue) as mentioned in our previous analysis.
  2. There was an ABC (green) pattern within each ABC (blue) wave.
  3. The bullish price action has either completed the wave 5 (orange) or indicates a wave 1-2 (green).
  4. The wave 1-2 (green) remains valid as long as price action stays above the previous low and 100% Fibonacci level. A break below it invalidates it (red circle).
  5. A bullish bounce or breakout (green arrows) confirms the uptrend.
  6. An alternative Elliott Wave outlook is that the blue wave B is a leading diagonal for a wave 1 followed by a wave 2. Also in this scenario, more upside is expected via a bullish wave 3, 4, and 5.

DAX 04.06.2021 1 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Head & Shoulder Pattern Kick Starts Bearish Outlook

The EUR/USD made a bearish reversal when testing the previous top. As expected in our previous analysis, price action made a bullish ABC pattern.

This article will review what to expect next from the Elliott Wave analysis, Fibonacci levels, and chart patterns.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

EUR/USD 03.06.2021 4 hour chart

The EUR/USD is expected to make a full bearish price swing in wave C (pink) after completing a bullish wave B (pink):

  1. The EUR/USD made a head and shoulders reversal chart pattern (red boxes). There were also divergence patterns between the tops (purple lines). A strong bearish impulse is expected to be wave 1 (grey).
  2. Price action needs to confirm this bearish outlook by breaking and closing (orange arrows) below the 21 ema zone, 144 ema zone, plus support trend line (green).
  3. Currently a bullish ABC (orange) is expected to complete a wave 2 (grey).
  4. A break below the -61.8% Fibonacci level confirms a wave 3 (rather than a potential wave C).
  5. A break above the previous top invalidates this bearish outlook (red circle).

On the 1 hour chart, price action is moving up and down around the 144 ema zone. Usually this indicates a larger range or reversal:

  1. The bulls seem to have completed a 5 wave pattern (green) within wave C (orange).
  2. The bearish bounce seems to complete a wave 1 (orange). This was followed by a retracement in wave 2 (orange).
  3. There are potential trade setups at the resistance trend line (orange) for a bearish bounce (orange arrow). Also a bearish breakout (orange arrow) could be an option.
  4. The main targets are located at the Fibonacci levels. The -161.8% Fibonacci level is located at 1.1915, which is usually the main target of wave 3 (grey).

EUR/USD 03.06.2021 1 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Ethereum Testing 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci Support of Wave 4

However, yesterday’s daily candlestick closed as a Doji which indicates indecision. Is this a first sign of a reversal? Let’s review.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

Ethereum 02.06.2021 daily chart

The ETH/USD uptrend seems too strong for a reversal to take place now:

  • The gaps between the moving averages (MAs), the angle of the MAs, and the gap between price and the 21 EMAs all indicate a strong uptrend.
  • The Doji daily candlestick indicates indecision and it is more likely to create a potential sideways pullback (grey arrow) or retracement (orange arrow) in the uptrend.
  • The support zone (blue box) is likely a bouncing spot (blue box) for more upside (green arrows).
  • Only a deeper retracement places the bullish outlook on hold (orange) or invalidates it (red circle).

On the 4 hour chart, price action made a bearish pullback to and bounce at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level:

  • After completing a 5 wave pattern (blue) in wave 3 (orange), price action is probably building a wave 4 pullback (orange).
  • The 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels remain key for the potential wave 4 (orange) pattern.
  • A bull flag pattern (grey arrows) could indicate a shallow pullback and uptrend continuation (blue arrow).
  • A deeper pullback (orange arrows) will probably test the Fibonacci support levels.
  • The targets of the uptrend are located at $4750, $5000, $5500.
  • A break below the 50% Fib places the uptrend on hold (yellow button) whereas a deeper retracement invalidates it (red button).

Ethereum 02.06.2021 4 hour chart

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,
Chris Svorcik

EUR/USD Bullish ABC Testing Key Fibs for Bearish Reversal

The EUR/USD built 5 bearish waves as expected. But is it enough to create a full bearish reversal?

This article examines why we expect the uptrend to turn into a strong bearish price swing. Let’s start.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

EUR/USD 31.5.2021 4 hour chart

The EUR/USD is testing a heavy resistance zone on the daily chart (top). This previous top is expected to create a bearish price swing for a wave C (pink). Besides the strong resistance, there are also chart and Elliott Wave patterns that indicate a reversal:

  1. The Elliott Wave patterns are indicating the end of the wave B (pink) and the start of the wave C (pink).
  2. There was also a rising wedge reversal chart pattern that already broke below the support trend lines (dotted green).
  3. The bearish 5 waves (orange on 1H chart) is probably a wave 1 (orange).
  4. The current bullish bounce is expected to be a wave 2 (grey).
  5. The wave 1-2 (grey) outlook remains valid as long as price stays below the previous top. A bullish break invalidates it (red circle).
  6. A bearish bounce below the top (orange arrows) could start the wave 3 (grey) lower.
  7. A lengthy sideways correction, however, could indicate a different corrective pattern rather than a bearish reversal.
  8. A break below the -61.8% Fibonacci target usually indicates and confirms a wave 3 (grey) pattern.
  9. The main targets are the Fibonacci levels as indicated in the 4 hour chart. The -161.8% Fib target is located at 1.1916. Price action could decline to test the daily bottom around 1.17-1.1750.

On the 1 hour chart, price action seems to have completed 5 bearish waves (orange) in wave 1 (grey):

  1. The current bullish price action is probably a wave A (orange).
  2. The sideways correction seems to be a wave B (orange).
  3. The wave B is getting support from the previous bottoms (green boxes).
  4. A bullish breakout (green arrows) above the local resistance (orange) could indicate a wave C (orange) in wave 2 (grey).
  5. A bearish breakout (orange arrows) below the support (green) could indicate a deeper wave B (orange).
  6. A bearish bounce could confirm the downtrend. Also a break below the bottom confirms the downtrend.
  7. A break above the top invalidates it (red circle).

EUR/USD 31.5.2021 1 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/NZD Testing 38.2%-50% Fibonacci Resistance on Daily and 1H Charts

The EUR/NZD is building a bullish corrective pattern. The bear flag pattern usually indicates a downtrend continuation.

Today’s analysis analyses the EUR/NZD on the daily chart and 1 hour as we examine potential short trade setups.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

EUR/NZD 31.5.2021 daily chart

The EUR/NZD seems to be in a strong downtrend. The bearish price swing is expected to be a wave 3 (pink):

  1. The pullback seems to be an ABC (pink) correction in wave 4 (grey).
  2. The second breakout below the 21 ema zone could indicate the end of the wave 4 (grey) pullback.
  3. A break (orange arrow) below the support trend line (green) would be the next confirmation.
  4. A deeper pullback to the 50% Fibonacci level is expected to act as resistance and a potential reversal.
  5. A break above the 50% Fib places this wave outlook on hold (orange circle) or invalidates it (red circle).
  6. The main bearish targets are located at the round levels of 1.6250, 1.60, and the -27.2% Fib target at 1.5860.

On the 1 hour chart, price action seems to be preparing for a bearish breakout but the wave 4 (grey) could extend into a triangle pattern:

  1. Price action could have completed a bullish ABC (orange) in wave 4 (grey).
  2. But the wave 4 could also extend sideways via a larger ABC.
  3. A bullish break above the 50% places the bearish outlook on hold (orange circle) or invalidates it (red circle).
  4. A bearish breakout (orange arrow) could indicate a downtrend continuation. But a break of the bottom is needed as well later on.

EUR/NZD 31.5.2021 1 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.