GBP/USD Price Forecast – Brexit Woes On Indecisive UK Lawmakers Keeps Sterling Under Pressure

The GBPUSD pair continues to remain under strong selling pressure since the trading session started for the week. The pair yesterday saw sharp two-way price action on Brexit headlines driven price action. Early in the day, the pair rose over 50-pips on news that DUP decided to abstain from voting on Customs Union 2.0 amendment. Customs Union 2.0 was designed keeping Norway’s deal with EU in mind which could lead to a softer Brexit. With DUP out of the picture, there was hope for either the Labour party or UK Tory party to gain a majority which could help delay Brexit for a while.

Macro Data Updates Eyed For Short Term Profit Opportunities

However, the UK parliament session lawmakers failed to come to an agreement on indicative votes for all 4 proposals submitted ending the session in a stalemate scenario. This caused the pair to lose all early gains and drop over 60 pips from intra-day highs. With less than 11 days left for UK’s Brexit deadline, unless lawmakers come to an agreement on how to move forward, UK will see a hard Brexit outcome. Headlines now suggest that some lawmakers are aiming to push PM May’s deal to be approved while others are pushing for second Brexit referendum and general election in the UK that could force the EU to delay Brexit. As of writing this article, GBPUSD pair is trading at 1.3045 down by 0.41% on the day. Despite prevalent bearish pressure on British Pound and recovery of US Greenback’s strength in the global market during the latter half of yesterday’s, the pair failed to see a bearish bearkout.

The entire focus of players surrounding the pair is now on Brexit headlines which continues to dictate price momentum. Ahead of further proceedings in UK parliament, investors wait for today’s macro calendar outcome for short term profit opportunities. UK calendar sees the release of Construction PMI while US calendar sees the release of Core durable goods orders data. Given dovish fundamentals and prevalent selling pressure on Sterling, the path with least resistance moving forward is to the downside. But Brexit headlines is likely to cause high level of volatility and price swings which suggests range bound action with bearish bias is likely to continue in immediate and near future trading sessions.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast – EURO Rangebound Near 1.1200 Handle

The EURUSD pair yesterday a saw positive opening for the week. However disappointing EU area macro data updates and Brexit woes put bearish pressure on the common currency. This caused the pair to lose early gains and trade flat during mid to late European market hours. While disappointing US retail sales data and prevalent risk on investor sentiment underpinned EURO bulls to some extent, US Dollar gained strength in the global market in the latter half of the day pushing the pair below 1.1200 handle. US Dollar gained positive influence from better than expected ISM Manufacturing data updates.

USD Pushing For Further Declines Consolidating Hold Over Bearish Price Rally

However, the pair failed to create a true bearish breakout. Investor sentiment still retains a great level of risk on tone influenced by upbeat Chinese macro data and optimism surrounding Sino-U.S. trade talks. This resulted in the pair seeing a range-bound price action trapped within range of 1.1210 and 1.1190 price handles throughout Pacific-Asian market hours. Following yesterday’s disappointing EU macro data, the spread difference between US & German government bond yield is once again widening in Euro negative manner. As of writing this article, the EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.1201 down by 0.10% on the day. Given bearish fundamentals in the current market scenario balancing out influence from positive investor sentiment, the pair is likely to continue range-bound price action in immediate and near future trading sessions.

There is little to no chance for EURO to see upside breakout today. Meanwhile, investors are on the lookout for macro data updates for short term directional cues and profit opportunities ahead of European market hours. EU calendar will see the release of PPI data while the US calendar will see the release of core durable goods order data. There is also a speech by ECB’s Peter Praet which is also eyed by investors for short term cues. A dovish tone by Praet during his speech could literally cement USD’s grip over price action and push the pair well below 1.1200 handle paving way to test new 2019 lows. Expected support and resistance for the pair are at 1.1175, 1.1130, 1.1100 and 1.1210, 1.1245, 1.1280 respectively.

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USD/CAD Daily Price Forecast – Canadian Loonie Holds Fort On Weak Crude Oil

The USDCAD pair on Friday saw a traded positive for the majority of the session but saw a sharp decline towards the end of trading session on disappointing US macro data update and upbeat Canada GDP data. The pair fell from mid-1.34 handle to mid-1.33 handle, post the decline the pair saw rangebound price action as Loonie received support from both macro data update and positive crude oil price in the global market. When trading session opened for the week, the pair resumed its trading activity well near Friday’s lows and traded range bound in the early Asian session.

Canadian GDP Update & Crude Oil Price Underpin Loonie Bulls

Optimism surrounding Sino-U.S. trade deal and headlines from China over the weekend which stated that the state council has decided to not impose tariffs on US goods in April as a sign of goodwill to the USA boosted risk appetite in the global market. Crude oil which has already been trading positive in the global market gained further momentum over Sino-U.S. trade optimism as a positive outcome could renew demand for increased crude oil in China. The prospect of increasing demand provided crude oil bulls with high positive influence helping spot US crude oil stay well above $60 per barrel across Asian and European market hours. Positive price action in crude oil helped commodity-linked currency Loonie gain strong fundamental support.

This helped Loonie retain its hold on price action resulting in pair declining slowly below the mid-1.33 handle. Further, increased risk appetite in the market which caused all major high-risk forex pairs to trade positive caused the US dollar to weaken in the broad market. Investors now await macro data updates for directional cues and short term profit opportunities. Canadian calendar will see the release of RBC Manufacturing PMI while US calendar will see the release of retail sales data, ISM Manufacturing PMI and Business inventories data updates. A positive outcome in US macro data will help US Greenback recover above mid-1.33 handle while negative outcome will help Loonie move below 1.3300 handle. As Canadian macro data lacks the strength to create a major impact on price action, broad-based strength of US dollar and crude oil price in the global market will set course for price action during today’s American market hours.

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Bitcoin And Ethereum Daily Price Forecast – Crypto Market Consolidates Weekend Gains

Cryptocurrency market over the weekend saw a positive price in both Bitcoin and major legacy cryptocurrencies. Last Friday, the crypto market saw bulls push through a critical resistance handle. Following the upward breach in price action, Bitcoin and legacy crypto coins had entered a consolidative price action. The weekend saw bulls push forward with further upside move as both Bitcoin and legacy crypto coins have managed to breach multiple critical support levels over the weekend. While analysts expected price action to take a hit towards month end owing to news of CBOE closing its Bitcoin futures at the end of March, the expectations failed to materialize in the market. While CBOE has not completely left the cryptocurrency market, they have decided not to renew Bitcoin futures after March and will close shop for Bitcoin futures when the last contract expires in June.

Consecutive Months of Positive Closing Underpins Crypto Bulls

CBOE has stated decreased demand for BTC futures as the reason for closure but is still on the race for ETF approval with SEC. In case, the proposal submitted by CBOE is approved by May and there is an increase in demand once again, chances are CBOE may choose to renew Bitcoin futures and this has resulted in investors failing to react with a sharp dovish move towards the update. Over the weekend, bitcoin saw price move above $4100 handle and aim to test $4150 which but hit resistance at $4147 handle and has since traded range bound above $4100 handle. Meanwhile, Ethereum saw price breach $140 & $145 handles during the weekend but strong resistance above $145 handle resulted in pair declining below said price level post which it has traded range bound above $140 handle. Having managed to test multiple key resistance levels, crypto bulls are currently consolidating their hold over weekend gains before preparing to move for a further upside move.

Moving forward, the path with least resistance seems to be on the upside as bulls receive fundamental support from headlines influenced investor sentiment. Bitcoin has managed to close positive for the second consecutive month and current price action indicates that Bitcoin seems to have found short term support above $4ooo mark and this has been highly welcomed by investors across the globe. News that Japanese crypto exchange Coincheck has launched Bitcoin OTC Trading Desk for institutional investors today also added strength to bulls in the short term. Post-consolidation of weekend gains, Bitcoin needs to scale $1450 handle while ETH needs to scale $145 handle for continued gains to the upside on a fast-moving pace. A decline below $4100 handle for Bitcoin and $140 handle for Ethereum will lead to bearish price action with both cryptocurrency pairs losing all gains made over the course of last week. However, a move between above-mentioned price levels will result in continued rangebound price action in immediate and near future trading sessions.

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Commodities Daily Forecast – April 1, 2019

Gold

The gold market tried to recover from the strong selling pressure in the previous session during Friday’s session. At this point, the market continues to be a bit directionless with both strong selling and buying pressure. If the gold prices reclaim the $1300 level, then it will continue to attract plenty of buyers reaching towards the $1325 level. …Read More

Silver

The silver prices bounced higher from the $15 level in Friday’s session, reaching towards the $15.20 level. The market is likely to continue to be extremely noisy and could witness selling pressure on the top. Currently, both 50 & 200 Day EMA overlapping each other, and until the silver prices break above the slope, it will continue to witness selling pressure. …Read More

WTI Crude Oil

The crude oil market inched higher towards the $60 level in Friday’s session, but continue to struggle to break above the region. Overall, the market continues to be extremely noisy given the mixed inventory data. Falling production from OPEC will help to boost up the crude prices in the long term and at this moment, short term dips will continue to be a nice buying opportunity. …Read More

Natural Gas

The natural gas market continued to be extremely weak during Friday’s session, reaching down towards the $2.65 level. Given the negative biases, the market is likely to reach down towards the $2.50 level, which is also bottom of this long term consolidation. And, if it breaks below that zone, then it could reach down towards the $2.20 or $2 level. …Read More

Forex Daily Outlook – April 1, 2019

EUR/USD

The pair initially fell during Friday’s session reaching down towards the 1.12 level but found plenty of buyers underneath to turnaround and show signs of strength. On the longer-term charts, 1.12 level underneath continues to offer strong support. The 50 & 200 Day EMA above is currently offering strong resistance and until it breaks above decisively, the pair would continue to witness selling pressure around that zone. …Read More

GBP/USD

The British Pound reached down towards the 1.30 level on Friday’s session, reacting to the negative Brexit narrative. There are a lot of headlines crossing this market which will essentially keep this market noisy and volatile. The 1.30 level underneath is a strong support point and will continue to attract plenty of buyers. And, if it breaks below the 1.30 level, then it should reach down to the 1.28 level, which is the next major support level. …Read More

AUD/USD

The AUD continues to attract plenty of buyers underneath around the 0.7050 level helping it to turnaround to upside overall. In the longer-term chart, the market has strong support at the 0.70 level and will continue to attract a lot of attention. The 50 Day EMA is offering strong resistance and if it breaks out, then it can easily reach towards the 0.7250 level. …Read More

USD/JPY

The USD rallied a bit during Friday’s session, reaching towards the structurally important 111 level. The pair is currently running along the 50 Day EMA slope which is offering a bit of resistance to the pair. Overall, this market will continue to remain choppy and a clear breakout above 200 Day EMA and 111.50 level, would be considered extremely bullish. Underneath, the 110 level is an important support level and will continue to attract a lot of interest. …Read More

Precious Metals Bleed On Healthy Risk On Investor Sentiment

Precious metals are seeing dovish price action as the trading session began for the week owing to lack of safe haven demand. All major equities and indices from key stock exchanges across Asia are trading positive since the trading session began for the day. Major forex pairs are also seeing positive price action in Asian market hours. This is a clear sign that risk appetite is high among investors today. However, the decline has been capped as risk on trading activity in the forex market resulted in US Dollar declining in the global market. A weak US dollar is always positive for greenback denominated precious metals.

Sino-U.S. Trade Optimism Underpins Crude Oil Bulls

Upbeat Chinese manufacturing PMI data and optimism surrounding Sino-U.S. trade talks are the major driving force behind today’s risk on investor sentiment. Following last week’s trade talks between representatives of the two nations in China, Chinese Vice Premier Liu he is expected to travel to Washington this week for further high-level trade talks. As the meeting between Presidents of both nation towards the end of March to conclude the trade deal has been postponed to early April, traders await updates from upcoming trade talks to hint at the possibility of another meeting between both Presidents to sign the trade deal later this month.

As of writing this article, spot gold XAUUSD  is trading at $1291.30 per ounce down by 0.07% on the day while US gold futures GCcv1 is trading at $1294.50 per ounce down by 0.30% on the day. Meanwhile, spot silver XAGUSD is trading at $15.12 per ounce down by 0.09% on the day. Crude oil price is trading positive today supported by risk on investor sentiment. spot US crude oil is trading positive for the fourth consecutive session as support stemming from OPEC enforced supply cut agreement and optimism surrounding Sino-U.S. trade deal which if successful could boost import of US crude oil to China. With positive support from multiple factors, spot US Crude oil is trading at $60.65 per barrel up by 0.80% on the day.

DAX Index Daily Price Forecast – DAX To Trade Rangebound With Positive Bias

European markets on Friday saw all major indices and equities trade positive and close in green in all major stock exchanges as the trading session came to close for the month. While the equities and benchmark indices saw sharp declines earlier last week, a recovery in the bond market and optimism surrounding Sino-U.S. trade talks helped ease risk-averse investor sentiment. All major government bond yields both in Europe and other major economies across the globe saw recovery action on Friday. While bond yields recovered from weekly lows it was still the biggest monthly falls since June 2016. As bond market rebound concerns of economic slowdown eased off improving risk on trading activity in all major stock exchanges.

Brexit Woes To Limit DAX’s Gains

German stock market also saw positive price action on Friday. Five of six benchmark indices from Frankfurt stock exchange closed positive for the day. Out of the three most-watched indices from the exchange, DAX and MDAX closed positive for the day with 0.86% & 0.70% increase in value while TECDAX closed for the day with 0.08% decrease in value. As per data on the performance of sectoral indices from Frankfurt stock exchange, 15 of 18 total sectoral indices closed in green. Stocks from Construction, Basic Resources & Technology sectors saw a high level of gains while stocks from Food & Beverage, Telecom and Financial Services sectors saw a sharp loss at the end of the trading session.

Out of total 778 stocks trading in the exchange, 419 stocks closed in green while 76 stocks closed unchanged at the end of trading session. The Asian market is seeing all major indices and equities trade positive on key stock exchanges across the continent. The positive price action is underpinned by bullish cues from Wall Street as optimism surrounding the trade deal between China & U.S.A. and positive bond yields continue to underpin risk appetite in the Asian market. Positive forecast for Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI also underpins risk appetite in Asian markets. DAX futures trading in the international market were up by 0.57% ahead of European market opening. The German market is highly susceptible to cues from Wall Street. Positive cues from Wall Street and Asian market are likely to influence positive price action in the German equity market. While DAX is likely to trade positive gains may be capped on caution stemming from Brexit woes.

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GBP/USD Price Forecast – Sterling Pressured By Brexit Woes

The GBPUSD pair on Friday saw two-way price action and closed on a dovish note. While improving risk appetite in the broad market helped the pair move sharply in the upside towards the mid-1.31 handle, it found resistance near 1.3130 handle. However, news that the third vote on PM May’s Brexit deal in UK parliament also ended against the government caused a fresh wave of weakness to ride the market. This resulted in the pair declining all the way from intra-day highs to intra-day lows of 1.2977 handle. The rejection of the third vote by UK lawmakers means that the UK has less than a month for preparing for Brexit unless they agree to participate in EU elections.

Headlines Eyed For Directional Cues

The US macro data saw a mixed outcome on Friday with PCE inflation data seeing a dovish outcome. This weighed down USD bulls giving British Pound an opportunity to rebound back above 1.30 handle as the trading session came to close for the day. As per conditions set forth by EU leaders, the UK now has until April 12, 2019, to prepare for Brexit but the time frame is too low to work on a new deal which suggests high likelihood for no-deal exit scenario. This has pressured Sterling in the global market preventing the currency from recovering above mid-1.3050 handle As of writing this article, GBPUSD pair is trading at 1.3020 up by 0.15% on the day.

Investors now await further updates on Brexit proceedings from the UK for directional cues, while focusing on macro data updates for short term profit opportunities. On the release front, both calendars have high impact macro data updates scheduled to release during late London market hours. The British calendar will see the release of Manufacturing PMI while US calendar will see the release of ISM Manufacturing PMI, Retail sales, Business inventories, and ISM Manufacturing employment data. Meanwhile escalating political tensions in the UK are also likely to provide some level of directional cues as lawmakers are set to meet again and make another attempt at inidicative vote. Expected support and resistance for the pair are at 1.3000, 1.2960, 1.2934 and 1.3051, 1.3079/80, 1.3135 respectively.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro To Trade Rangebound Ahead of EU PMI Updates

The EURUSD pair last Friday saw recovery price action in the early half of trading session as risk aversion eased in the global market. While investors risk appetite rose across the globe with recovering US T.Yields, the pair failed to see solid recovery rally. Euro bulls lost their hold over price action near the mid-1.12 handle. As the third vote on PM May’s deal failed to win the support of enough lawmakers, Brexit woes took center stage near E.O.D. Impact from dovish ECB, mixed Euro area macro data and concerns of an economic slowdown in Europe still lingered in the market and this provided support to USD bulls pushing the pair back towards intra-day lows.

Price Action Remains in Bear’s Territory

The pair opened for the week with a gap up move but the price still remains well below mid 1.12 handle. Having declined below multiple support price levels that kept price action in check over the last six months, the pair has now attained a bearish breakout in simplest terms. With bulls and bears taking on a battle of attrition, news and macro data-driven momentum resulted in EURO losing all its gains and falling below multiple key price handles and this has given USD an edge over the common currency. Neither Brexit nor Sino-U.S. trade talk seems to have made solid progress and this adds strength to EURO bears. This has resulted in investors holding back from placing major bets ahead of key events scheduled to take place this week.

As of writing this article, EURUSD pair is trading flat at 1.1222 up by 0.05% on the day. Investors now await macro data updates for short term profit opportunities. On the release front, both calendars are highly active today. The EU calendar will see the release of Manufacturing PMI from Italy, France, Germany & EURO area and also EU area’s CPI, unemployment rate while US calendar will see the release of core retail sales data, ISM manufacturing PMI and business inventories data updates. Forecast hints at a mixed outcome for the EU macro calendar, a dovish outcome in the EU calendar updates today will lead to the pair declining below 1.1200 handle while positive outcome will help the pair reclaim hold above 1.1250 handle. Expected support and resistance for the pair are at 1.1210, 1.1175, 1.1150 and 1.1250, 1.1280,  1.1310 respectively.

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Bitcoin Monthly Forecast – April 2019

In my precious monthly forecast article, I had mentioned that price action in the month of March will be highly dependent on headlines to support price momentum. While that part more or less turned out to be true, investors reaction to headlines took on a different tone. While the events anticipated such as Russia converting their fiat forex reserves to Bitcoin and expectations for the debut of CBOE ETF & Bakkt platform failed to materialize in the market, investors hardly reacted to some of the key headlines which could have caused a bearish breakout price action. The technicals seemed to support positive price action as mentioned in the previous article with Bitcoin seeing strong gains overall for the month of March. Price action during the month of March 2019 seems to have been driven by speculative bets from retail traders and large scale investors alike.

Negative Headlines Failed To Create A Breakout

Positive investor sentiment back positive price rally influenced fresh wave of positive bets. This created a cycle of dead cat bounce attempts with significant corrective price action all of which saw bears being trumped in the end and bulls continued to gain a strong foothold. The price action from last month has created a picture which clearly suggests that Bitcoin has found the bottom in short to medium term and is now on a steady recovery rally. While a few key hurdles seem to have been scaled so far, many hurdles still remain ahead of long term target which needs to be breached for bulls to truly gain supremacy and for cryptocurrency market to truly gain the lost momentum which took Bitcoin and other major legacy cryptos to new all-time highs.

The Ethereum hard fork seems to have had a successful outcome and despite initial caution in the global market over the possible impact of network upgrade market activity turned out to have a positive outcome. Multiple tests were run and precautionary measures were taken to prevent issues, but in the end traders and market soon got used to network upgrade as this is not the first hard fork for Ethereum network resulting in market activity continuing like usual. As the bulls had successfully managed to weather the scenario and prevented history from repeating itself thereby managing to retain gains and positive momentum, bulls continued to aim for new heights across the month of March. As pointed out in my daily forecasts during the month of March, bulls seem to be growing in strength and increasing their foothold over territory on rebound post every single dead cat bounce scenarios.

This has helped Bitcoin gain a firm hold on support over not just $3000 & $3500 handles but also over $ 3800 & $3900 handles. Speculative trading led to a huge level of fund flow being cycles within the cryptocurrency market. In fact, traders who regularly followed volume data would have easily recognized that overall trade volume rose to new highs for the first time since the cryptocurrency market began declining in 2018. Reports which stated that debut of Bitcoin CBOE ETF & Bakkt platform’s approvals have been delayed to late March and could get delayed even further didn’t seem to have any impact on the market either. Over $2 billion USD was regularly circulating in and out of the market on every dead cat bounce scenario but trading volume has held steady even if it didn’t continue to grow post hitting new multi-month highs.

This is viewed as a clear sign from the fundamental perspective, that cryptocurrency market has finally found the bottom and is now steadily building up a recovery rally albeit slow progress in same. Meanwhile, news that Bitcoin mining hashrate rose for the first time since miners began closing shop on lack of profit to sustain activity was also viewed as a welcoming move which provided the market with fundamental support. Increased hashrate is a clear sign that mining activity is beginning to boom again. As all the weeds who wanted to ride the wave have washed out from the market, those who still remained in cryptocurrency market were either loyalists or investors with huge portfolio balance who knew how the cryptocurrency market worked and was willing to let a significant portion of thier funds stay put for prolonged time over prospects of seeing high gains.

Bitcoin At Critical Juncture As Bulls Test Critical Price Levels

The cryptocurrency market even saw Bitcoin and legacy crypto coins fail to make a bearish breakout on news that CBOE was closing its Bitcoin futures contract at end of March owing to increasing operational costs and lack of profit and trading volume. While this move could be a major blow to market as it could cost the mark quite a few billions if and when investors move their funds out of the market if the crypto assets managed to hold out attempts by bears to derail gains, Bitcoin and major legacy crypto coins will see market move up on next leg of the upside move. For the majority of the month, Bitcoin had managed to reclaim and trade above $4000 handle despite repeated attempts by bears to make a breakout. Towards the end of the month, Bitcoin even managed to climb above $4085 handle which proved a hurdle for quite a while now. Moving forward, the path with least resistance seems to be on the upside as bulls continue to exhibit firm hold over price momentum. The BTCUSD pair needs to breach $4100 handle followed by $4200 handle and establish a stable rally above the mentioned price levels for the pair to see an increase in fund flow and speculative bets that could push Bitcoin on next leg of upside rally with aims for $5000 handle. In the month ahead, Bitcoin needs to hold above $4000 handle for positive price action to continue while a decline below $4000 handle will lead to battle of attrition with bears that could result in Bitcoin falling back towards $3800 handle.

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Crude Oil Monthly Forecast – April 2019

The price of US Crude oil in the global market has seen steady upward price action so far this year. While there may have been range bound price actions and slight corrective rallies then and there, the overall price trend for every single month this year has been to the upside. This is clearly evident from a look at the weekly chart which shows solid progress of Crude oil’s price action in the global spot market. Further, the factors which supported Crude oil bulls on their positive price rally this month was higher than the last two months. However, crude oil price continued to see disrupting influence from US weekly stockpile data. The spot US Crude oil for the month of March saw over 7% increase in value when comparing the monthly open and close price.

The pair continued to scale new monthly highs across the month as Crude oil bulls seems to have found a reliable form of strength from fundamental perspective. The month started of on positive note supported by optimism surrounding Sino-U.S. trade talks and headlines which hit the market stating crude oil output and exports from Venezuela was down by 60% owing to impact of US sanctions imposed on same. Further, news that OPEC is planning to keep its production and supply cut enforcement till June 2019 & Russia has finally began to take steps to ensure their output meets complies with OPEC+ summit agreed levels by end of March added positive support to crude oil bulls. However an increase in weekly US crude oil stockpile capped gains.

Supply Disruptions From Middle East Underpins Crude Oil Bulls

Since the start of the year, OPEC’s enforcement of production and supply cut agreement has steadily helped improve the supply to demand ratio in the global market and this has served as a long term supporting factor which underpins crude oil bulls. The first half of March also found support from reports which suggested that Saudi Arabia was planning to to reduce the output for April by less than 7 million bpd keeping output well below the target of 10 million bpd and that the US saw the scenario where there was zero import of crude oil from Venezuela for the first time ever in history. Meanwhile, due to sudden power outage Venezuelan Crude oil production and supply activity came to an abrupt halt. The greatly changed the global demand and supply dynamics influencing a fresh wave of sharp upside price action.

The latter half of the month saw crude oil bulls trade range bound near monthly highs supported by OPEC’s supply reduction enforcement. But the price soon hit new 2019 highs and scaled $60 handle in both spot and futures market as the supply disruption for Venezuela over sudden blackout lasted longer than usual. While profit booking activity resulted in price declining from 2019 highs for a short while, shift in supply dynamics influenced by US sanctions on Iran & Venezuela’s crude oil exports and OPEC supply reduction enforcement helped the price recover above $60 handle shortly. A sudden and expected draw in US weekly crude oil inventory data in both API & EIA stockpiles also added support to crude oil bulls. But declining bond yields in global market which resulted in increased risk averse trading and concerns of economic slowdown impacted crude oil price action.

Fundamental Support Leans Towards Bulls But Gain’s Likely To Be Capped

A slowdown in global economic activity would mean reduced demand for crude oil which would once again change supply to demand ratio. But this time the change would favor crude oil bears. And US crude oil stockpile once again rose during last week of March as per weekly inventory data. This resulted in price of crude oil moving back towards $58 handle. But a rebound in global bond market resulted in investors concerns of global economic slowdown and risk averse sentiment easing off. This helped Crude oil price reclaim $60 handle and close for the month on a positive note. Moving forward, the price action is likely to remain positive in the global market but gains are likely to be limited. As  geo-political issues remain unresolved till date and headlines shows signs that neither Sino-U.S. trade war nor Brexit is anywhere near to seeing positive outcome, some level of risk averse investor sentiment and concerns of economic slowdown will linger in the market providing crude oil bears with fundamental support. Even if news report suggests that Russia may have met with OPEC’s supply reduction target and Saudi Arabia decreases its output, these have long since been expected by investors and are likely to have been priced into ongoing rally. While the confirmation of said events will result in crude oil price seeing sharp gains, bulls will see strong resistance at $62 handle and price action will remain range bound with positive bias across the month unless there is an update which is totally unexpected or US weekly crude oil inventories sees consecutive updates with draw in stockpile data.

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Gold Monthly Forecast – April 2019

The price action for Gold in both spot and futures markets during the month of March was highly positive. However, profit booking activity towards the end of Month led to yellow metal losing all its gains and closing on a neutral note albeit all for weeks seeing a steady increase in price action. Safe-haven assets saw a high level of attention and fund flow across the month owing to cautious investor stance stemming from updates pertaining to geopolitical events and concerns of global economic slowdown. A look at the weekly chart shows that price trend from the first two months of 2019 has repeated itself in the course of a single month during March 2019.

The price action of Gold was rangebound for most of the first week of March as optimism surrounding the Sino-U.S. trade deal and strong US Dollar in global market capped upside move. But, European Central Bank’s dovish forward guidance with clear mention of plans to initiate their targetted long term refinancing operation aka quantitative easing from September 2019 despite just terminating the previous QE program last December caused demand for gold to spike in the global market. Weak US Dollar in the broad market, Brexit woes influenced by the UK parliament’s rejection of PM May’s deal and EU Junckers offer for legally binding assurance to work on an alternative for Irish backstop agreement by December 2020 and comments from U.S. representatives on uncertainties surrounding Sino-U.S. trade deal further boosted demand for safe-haven assets helping Gold retain positive action during the first half of the month.

Gold Closed Flat As Profit Booking Drained Gains

Caution ahead of US FOMC update and dovish forward guidance from FOMC members resulting in weaker US Greenback in the global market helped the yellow metal scale $1300 handle. US FOMC press conference saw Fed Chair Powell and FOMC members state plans for rate cuts in the year ahead depending on economic conditions and no plans for rate hike in the year ahead. Powell stated that cues from macro data owing to the impact of geopolitical issues are seeing mixed cues causing Feds to adopt a patient stance and any signs of recession could lead to rate cuts in the year ahead. US Fed’s joined bear cartel of central banks as key figures from major central banks from Australia, China, Canada & Europe also hinting at a slowdown in global economy.

Further, disappointing Euro area macro data updates and declining European government bond yields caused investors across the globe to take on cautious stance supporting precious metal bulls. The last week saw government bond yields from all major global economies decline sharply boosting concerns of global economic slowdown and recession in the U.S.A. However, bond yields recovered from decline as the month came to close easing risk-averse investor sentiment. This led to intense profit booking activity across the globe resulting in yellow metal seeing the price per ounce fall below $1300 handle in both spot and futures markets. A recovery in U.S. T-Yields boosted US Greenback in the global market adding momentum to precious metal bears resulting in Gold seeing sharp declines.

Trade War & Brexit Woes Underpin Gold Bulls

However, the demand for precious metals still remains high in the global market and price action could see upward movement in the month of April as both Brexit and Sino-U.S. trade talks are yet to see a positive resolution. Further, U.S. T-Yields are yet to fully recover from recent decline to multi-month lows. Bank of Japan’s MPC members also hinted at global economic slowdown during the last week of March. If the current geopolitical scenario continues as it is now or worsens in the month ahead global economy will see further declines. Macro data updates or headlines which hints at such a slowdown will help Gold recover momentum across the globe. While escalating tensions surrounding geopolitical issues are also likely to influence risk-averse investor sentiment. Even when looking from a technical perspective, bears are unlikely to gain a strong foothold or even a slight grip on price momentum as long as the price holds steady above $1270 handle. Global political and economic climate has resulted in some level of steady fund flow into precious metals market while fundamentals also provide strong support to precious metal bulls. Unless two key geopolitical issues namely Brexit and trade war between China & U.S.A, are permanently resolved the price action in gold will always have a bias favoring upside price action from a fundamental perspective.

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EUR/USD Monthly Forecast – April 2019

The EURUSD pair saw highly volatile price swings during the month of March and closed on a dovish note. The price action was dominated by headlines driven momentum rather than influence from macro data updates albeit both factors having a significant impact on price action. Proceedings of geopolitical events had a great impact on EURO similar to trend from the recent past. However, rather than one-sided influence compared to early 2019, the month of March saw conflicting headlines which hampered progress for the pair in either direction. Hopes for positive progress in Brexit helped EURO climb higher in the early half of the month. The pair started on dovish note for March owing to lack of directional bias for EURO and broad-based strength of US Dollar. This caused the pair to decline below 1.12 handle but the pair rebound sharply and scaled back hold over 1.13 handle on Brexit headlines.

EURO Danced To Tune Set By Brexit Updates

Headlines of proceedings of Brexit controlled price action of EURO for the majority of the month and is highly likely to continue dominating price action during the first half of April. Legally binding assurance from EU’s Juncker to work on an alternative for Irish Backstop agreement and UK lawmakers voting to avoid no-deal Brexit were the major factors that helped EURO on its recovery rally. However, news that China & U.S.A had postponed the meeting between Presidents of both nations for concluding trade deal between two parties from the end of March to early April took the wind out of Market bulls capping gains above 1.13 handle. A dovish US FOMC update which saw FOMC members hint at the possibility of rate cuts in the year ahead and no-plans for rate hikes during 2019 caused a sharp downward slide of US Greenback in the global market helping EURO recover positive momentum from early March and scale 1.14 handle. EU leaders summit which saw leaders agree to grant UK’s request for Brexit deadline extension albeit attaching conditions for the extension of time frame also helped EURO maintain positive price action.

However, the EURO started to decline as dovish influence started creeping into the market over bearish tone in ECB MPC update resulting in the pair declining below the mid-1.13 handle. Further, disappointing macro data lead to German government bond yields seeing a decline with spread difference between US & DE bonds moving in favor of USD pushing the pair below 1.13 handle. Comments from key figures of major central banks across the globe starting from the US, EU, Japan, and Australia on global economic slowdown influenced a wave of declining T.Yields across all major government bonds across the globe. This invoked fears of recession and fuelled concerns of economic slowdown towards the end of the month resulting in the pair heading towards 1.1200 handle. But the global bond market saw recovery action as the trading session came to close on Friday and concerns of recession eased in the market. This helped the pair close above 1.12 handle for March. While risk aversion has eased in major global markets, the path with least resistance for EURUSD moving forward is likely to the downside.

EURO Suffers On Both Fundamental & Technical Fronts

Brexit and Sino-U.S. trade talks will remain the main focus of investors in immediate and near future trading session as talks resume between U.S.A & China in Washington during the first week of April. Meanwhile, the UK has less than a month left to get things in order for no-deal exit scenario unless they participate in EU parliament elections as the EU leaders are not ready to grant a longer extension given the fact that PM May’s deal has also been rejected by UK lawmakers. The looming possibility of no-deal Brexit which increased with each passing day and lack of solid progress in Sino-U.S. trade talks aside from the usual headlines are likely to weigh on investor risk appetite in the month ahead. Further, expectations of disappointing macro data updates and dovish political climate in EU also limit the possibility for strong recovery price action while the rebound in U.S. T-Yields is likely to underpin USD bulls dragging the pair below 1.12 handle in near future. With headlines on geopolitical events and US Dollar’s strength controlling the price action the forecast from fundamental perspective points to continued downside price action. Even when looking from a technical perspective, the path with the least resistance is the downside. This is evident from the fact that the pair has already declined well below multiple layers of critical support levels that had capped sharp declines for the last six months giving USD bulls a strong control over price action and hold below mid 1.12 handle in immediate and near future trading sessions.

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Bitcoin And Ethereum Daily Price Forecast – Crypto Bulls Finally Managed To Crack Hurdles To The Upside

Cryptocurrency market is finally seeing Bitcoin and major legacy cryptocurrencies managing to move above major hurdles to the upside. Crypto bulls have for quite a while now struggled and suffered multiple dead cat bounce on key resistance hurdles to the upside as they aim for long term goals on next leg of upside price action. Today, bulls have managed to crack one such resistance levels and this is clear a sign of improving risk appetite and demand in the cryptocurrency market. However, investors still remain wary of upside move on the possibility of today’s breakout being yet another dead cat bounce with bulls just reaching higher than usual and this has resulted in traders holding back from placing major bets.

Investors Await To See If Gains Will Hold Out Across The Weekend

Considering price action from recent past, it,s the habit of bulls to scale new heights and stabilize above key resistance levels after multiple dead cat bounce scenarios. However, it remains to be seen if Bitcoin and Ethereum have managed to find such a solid foothold above $4000 and $135 mark as a support level. If Bitcoin and Ethereum have indeed found support at above-mentioned price levels then the ongoing rally could in fact be a move pushing forward with the aim to reach further heights. However, news has hit market that CBOE is terminating its Bitcoin futures at the end of this month and that is the cause of concern for crypto investors across the globe.

Investors wait to see if crypto bulls would be capable of withstanding the termination of Bitcoin futures which will see hundreds of millions pulled out in a short while. Such a large withdrawal would usually result in major crypto coins including Bitcoin and Ethereum seeing sharp declines. However, both mining activity and cryptocurrency price have gone up and this could make people at CBOE change their minds which as of yet remains to be a highly unlikely scenario. Bitcoin and Ethereum today have climbed above key resistance at $4085 & 140 handles respectively. But moving forward, the price action needs to hold steady above the mentioned price levels across the weekend and well into Monday’s trading session regardless of profit booking activity for Ongoing price rally to see solid gains and upside price action in long term.

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USD/CAD Daily Price Forecast – CAD Gains on Crude Oil Price Rebound

The USDCAD pair saw rangebound price action across yesterday’s trading session despite risk on investor sentiment prevalent in the global market. Canadian Loonie was pressured by weak crude oil price and government yield curve inversion which supported Bank of Canada’s dovish stance. Even a worse than expected US Q4 GDP data failed to give Canadian Loonie a breakout or breathing space.  However, the pair got a bearish breakout during Pacific-Asian market hours, early Asian market hours to be precise as government bond yields of major economies saw positive rebound action. This helped improve risk sentiment in the global market erasing any and all concerns of recession in the USA and slowdown in the global economy.

Canadian GDP Data Eyed For Directional Cues

This helped crude oil price see a sharp rebound in price action as healthy economic activity is a sign of increased demand for crude oil owing to regular consumption. Further, trade talks between China & U.S.A. concluded on positive note according to delegates from both countries despite a lack of details on the discussion. But US representatives stated that talks will resume next week in Washington with Chinese delegates traveling to the U.S.A. This caused investors to expect the possibility of confirmation on trade deal being signed by two nations during early April which further added support for crude oil bulls pushing the price of crude oil above $60 per barrel.

Also increased risk appetite among global investors and rebound in government bond yields provided positive support to Canadian Loonie. This caused the pair to see sharp declines from 4-week tops all the way below mid-1.33 handle. The pair has since traded rangebound near 1.335 handle while investors await macro data updates for short term directional cues and profit opportunities as the trading session comes to close for the month. Canadian calendar will see the release of Q4 GDP data and RMPI data while US calendar will see the release of  Chicago PMI, New home sales data, Core PCE price index and PCE deflator data updates. A Positive Canadian GDP update will help Loonie retain its positive price action while dovish outcome will result in USD bulls re-establishing control over price action.

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Precious Metals Rangebound Amid Risk On Trading Activity in Global Market

Precious metals are trading rangebound post overnight declines as risk appetite continues to rise for the second consecutive trading session. Since news of US delegates visit to China for trade talk between the two nation hit the market, hopes for progress and positive outcome at the end of two -day session has helped improve risk appetite in the global market. Also, a rebound in major global bonds across the globe following week-long decline helped risk on trading activity by supporting and providing a positive influence to market bulls. When looking at price action in the daily and weekly chart, the picture suggests that gold is on the path for the worst decline of the year.

Rebound in Global Bond Market Is A Bane For Precious Metals

While both geopolitical issues namely Brexit and Sino-U.S. trade talks are yet to see a positive resolution, the strength of the US dollar in the global market and headlines inspired optimism kept pressuring precious metals into decline on multiple occasions this month. Price of spot gold has declined below $1300 mark once again. While price action in the market sees rangebound pattern, the bias is favoring bears in immediate and near future trading session. On the last trading session of the month, as of writing this article, spot gold XAUUSD is trading at $1293.50 per ounce up by 0.23% on the day while US gold futures GCcv1 is trading at $1297 per ounce up by 0.14% on the day.

Meanwhile, spot Silver XAGUSD is trading at $15.10 per ounce up by 0.56% on the day. Crude oil price saw positive price action in the global market today. The upside price action was influenced by increased risk appetite and a rebound in major government bond yields across the globe. This along with a healthy supply to demand ratio influenced by OPEC enforced production and supply cut enforcement underpinned crude oil bulls resulting in crude oil price recovering above $60 handle. As of writing this article, spot crude oil WTIUSD is trading at $60.05 per barrel up by 1.30% on the day.

DAX Index Daily Price Forecast – DAX to Trade in Green on Positive Cues From International Market

Equities in European market saw mixed outcome in major stock exchanges yesterday. Equities opened across Europe with positive bias and increased risk appetite influenced by headlines of two-day trade talks between Chinese and U.S. delegates in China. However, declining German bond yields continued to provide dovish influence capping gains. Later in the day, European macro data saw worse than expected outcome, which caused further risk-averse sentiment resulting European market losing most of its positive influence from the early trading session. At the end of European market hours, most major stock exchanges in Europe saw mixed action in their equities and benchmark indices.

Macro Data Outcome Eyed For Directional Bias

German market also saw mixed activity in Frankfurt stock exchange which at close saw most major benchmark indices and equities close in the red. Out of 6 major benchmark indices, 4 closed in the red with MDAX & TECDAX down by 0.66% & 0.49% on the day while DAX index closed with 0.08% increase in value at end of the day. Out of the total 778 stocks trading inFrankfurt stock exchange, 349 stocks closed in red while 346 stocks closed in green and 85 stocks closed unchanged at the end of the day. As per data on the performance of sectoral indices from the exchange, 13 out of 18 sectoral indices closed in the red. Stocks from Chemicals, Pharma & healthcare, Software sectors saw high gains while stocks from Banks, Construction and Technology sectors saw a high loss.

Asian market today saw positive price action across all major stock exchanges supported by cues from Wall Street and increased risk appetite stemming from Sino-U.S. trade talk related optimism. Also, the bond market is seeing all major government bond yields recover across the globe after nearly four consecutive sessions of decline supporting increased risk appetite and positive price action in the global market. The German equity market is highly influenced by cues from international markets owing to its trade-dependent economy. DAX futures trading in the international market was up by 0.25% ahead of European market opening. This suggests that the DAX index and German equities are likely to see positive price action across today’s European market hours. While DAX may trade positive the level of gains will depend on macro data outcome in EU and UK parliament decision on Brexit progress.

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GBP/USD Price Forecast – Sterling To Continue Downside Price Action on Brexit Woes`

The GBPUSD pair yesterday steady downside price action on US Dollar’s strength and bearish pressure stemming from Brexit Woes. There are multiple options to move forward but the deadline is too short given the indecisive nature of UK lawmakers. Citizens may soon come to regret lawmakers decision to take control of Brexit away from PM May if the current scenario extends further. If PM May’s Brexit proposal is rejected today, the UK has less than a month for Brexit unless they participate in EU elections. Concerns of the no-deal exit scenario continue to rise despite lawmakers agreeing to avoid such an outcome as no solid progress has been made so far despite a change in control dynamics. This factor along with US Dollar gaining strength on the rebound in US T.Yields helped US dollar push the pair on steady downside price action.

UK GDP Data Eyed For Short Term Directional Cues

But dollar bulls faced strong bearish influence post-release of disappointing US macro data updates yesterday evening. This resulted in Dollar losing its drive to create a bearish price rally. However, Sterling which suffered fromBrexit woes saw slow and steady downside price action resulting in the pair closing well below 1.3100 handle at end of trading session. Caution ahead of today’s UK parliament session as investors await updates from today’s meeting has resulted in the pair seeing consolidative price action above 1.3000 handle during Asian market hours. Sterling continues to face bearish influence from multiple fronts such as Brexit and declining UK government bond yield – a clear sign of recession in the UK economy.

As of writing this article, GBPUSD pair is trading at 1.3027 down by 0.12% on the day. Investors await UK parliament meeting updates as today’s outcome will decide the date for Brexit deadline as per conditions stated by EU. Aside from the parliament meeting, investors focus is on macro data updates for short term profit opportunities. Both UK and US calendar are highly active today with multiple high impact macro data updates scheduled to release today. UK calendar will see the release of Q7 GDP & Business investment data while the US calendar will see the release of Core PCE Price Index data, PCE deflator data, Personal spending data, Chicago PMI and New home sales data. Regardless of the outcome in macro data front, the path with least resistance in immediate and near future trading session are to the downside unless UK parliament approves UK PM May’s deal or comes to an agreement on solid decision to move forward which will facilitate longer Brexit deadline extension.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Rangebound Ahead of EU Area CPI Update

The EURUSD pair yesterday traded range bound and closed on a dovish note. The pair suffered a significant level of bearish pressure yesterday as US Dollar gained strength on the rebound in US T.Yields. However, the US GDP data saw a disappointing outcome preventing US Greenback from building up a bearish price rally. Shortly after the release of US macro data, EU calendar saw disappointing German macro data update. This resulted in the pair seeing a slide to three-week lows at 1.1213 after which the pair saw rangebound price action across American market hours.

Bullish Breakout Unlikely in Near Future

The pair saw consolidative price action slightly above 3-week lows during Pacific-Asian market hours. Increased risk appetite and optimism surrounding Sino-U.S. trade talks helped EURO gain some momentum ahead of European market hours. This helped EURO climb slightly higher during Asian market hours. However, Euro continues to see bearish pressure owing to German T.Yields which has remained in the pit so far this week. As of writing this article, EURUSD pair is trading at 1.1237 up by 0.15% on the day. Investors now await directional cues and short term profit opportunity today’s macro data updates. On the release front, both European and American calendars are highly active with multiple high impact macro data updates scheduled to release across the day.

European macro calendar will see the release of German retail sales data, French CPI & HICP data, German unemployment change, and Preliminary Euro area CPI data. US macro calendar will see the release of Core PCE Price index data, PCE Deflator data, personal spending data, Chicago PMI data, Michigan consumer expectations and consumer sentiment data, new home sales data and speech by FOMC members Kaplan and Williams. A better than expected EU area macro data and disappointing US macro data will help the Euro move back towards 1.1300 handle. However, the pair is unlikely to gain positive momentum in near future as it has declined below multiple price levels which acted as support limiting declines for the past few months.  US dollar will keep gaining on each instance of risk-averse trading adding further pressure on Euro. Expected support and resistance for the paire are at 1.1240, 1.1265, 1.1305 and 1.1215, 1.1200, 1.1175 respectively.

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