USD/CAD Price Prediction – The Exchange Rate Consolidates Following Wednesday’s Slide

The USD/CAD moved sideways as dollar strength eased as U.S. yields declined. The drop in yields came following a report from the Labor Department in the U.s. that showed that initial filings for unemployment insurance totaled 419,000 for the week ended July 17, above expectations. Existing Home Sales in the U.S. rose along with the median sales price which hit a record all-time high.

Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD moved sideways, consolidating the losses experienced on Wednesday. Support is seen near the 20-day moving average at 1.2481. Target resistance is seen near the July highs at 1.2807. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. The movement from overbought on the fast stochastic near 91, down to 74, reflects accelerating short-term negative momentum. Medium-term positive momentum is decelerating as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in positive territory with a declining trajectory which points to consolidation.

Existing Home Prices Rise

Existing home sales rose by 1.4% in June. This rise in the sale of existing homes snapped a 4-month consecutive decline in existing homes. The median price of an existing home sold in June hit an all-time high of $363,300. That was 23.4% higher than the price in June 2020. Sales of homes priced between $100,000 and $250,000 fell 16% annually. Sales of homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million jumped 119%.

Silver Price Prediction – Prices Rise as Yields Fall

Silver prices rebounded on Thursday for a second consecutive trading session. The dollar moved higher but yields moved lower which seemed to buoy gold prices, Copper gained pushed higher after gaining a foothold as concerns over the spread of the virus disappeared slightly.  A stronger than expected Existing Home Sales failed to buoy yields as jobless claims unexpectedly declined on Thursday.

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Technical analysis

Silver prices dropped rebounded on Thursday for a second consecutive trading session after falling for three consecutive trading sessions. Target support is seen near a horizontal line seen near 23.86. Resistance is seen near former support near $25.55.  Additional resistance is seen near the 20-day moving average at 25.93. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Medium-term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The MACD histogram is printing in negative territory with a sliding trajectory which points to lower prices.

Existing-Home Sales Rise

Following 4-months of lower existing home sales the June data snapped the streak. Existing home sales rose 1.4% in June month-to-month to an annualized rate of 5.86 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were 22.9% higher compared with June 2020. The inventory of homes for sale at the end of June was 1.25 million, representing a 2.6-month supply at the current sales pace. That is a slight improvement from May’s 2.5-month supply.

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rise Following Less than Expected Build in Stockpiles

Natural gas prices continued to break out to fresh contract highs on Thursday following the Energy’s Department inventory report. Warmer than normal weather is expected to cover most of the United States over the next 6-10 and 8-14 days. According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, there is one tropical storm in the Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico that has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48-hours.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices continued to rally on Thursday following the EIA inventory report. The August contract closed at an all-time high for the 4th consecutive trading session. Target resistance is now the 2018 highs at 4.92. Support is seen near the former highs at 3.82 and then the 10-day moving average at 3.77. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Prices are overbought. The current reading on the RSI is 76 above the overbought trigger level of 70 which could foreshadow a correction. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line crosses above the MACD signal line. The MACD histogram also generated a crossover buy signal.

Natural Gas Inventories Rose Less than Expected

Natural gas in storage was 2,678 Bcf as of Friday, July 16, 2021, according to the EIA. This represents a net increase of 49 Bcf from the previous week. Expectations were for a 55 Bcf build according to survey provider Estimize. Stocks were 532 Bcf less than last year at this time and 176 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,854 Bcf. At 2,678 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

Gold Price Prediction – Prices Climb as Yields Drop Following Jobless Claims Data

Gold prices moved higher despite a rising dollar as the decline in U.S. yields buoyed the yellow metal. The dollar rebounded from session lows. U.S. Yields moved lower following an unexpected rise in U.S. Jobless Claims. Stronger than expected U.S. Existing home sales as well as a record high on the median home price failed to buoy the interest rate markets.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices moved higher on Thursday but remain rangebound.  Support is seen near the 20-day moving average at 1,798.  Resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 1,836. The consolidation is tightening and building energy. Short-term momentum is negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. Medium-term momentum is decelerating. The MACD histogram is printing in positive territory with a declining trajectory which points to consolidation. Despite the sideways price action, gold continues to trade in a short-term uptrend.

According to the U.S. Labor Department weekly jobless claims unexpectedly rose last week. Initial jobless claims totaled 419,000 for the week ended July 17, well above the 350,000 Expected and more than the upwardly revised 368,000 from

USD/CAD Exchange Rate Prediction – The Dollar Eases as Safe-haven Flows Ebb

The USD/CAD gave back all of its weekly gains and is now lower for the week. The dollar was broadly down against most major currencies. U.S. yields were mixed, with the 10-year yield rising and the two-year stable. The economic highlight of the week for Canada is the May retail sales report on Friday. The U.S. 20-year treasury auction was weaker than expected as yields needed to back up by 2-basis points just minutes before the auction to accommodate the lack of buying interest. The backup in yields seemed to weigh on the greenback, leading to a softer USD/CAD.

Technical analysis

The USD/CAD gave back some of the gains it experienced this week following Monday 1.2% gain.  The currency pair sliced through resistance which is now support near the April highs at 1.2658. Target resistance is seen near the February highs at 1.2864. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. The movement from overbought on the fast stochastic near 91, down to 74, reflects accelerating short-term negative momentum. Medium-term momentum is positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in positive territory with an upward sloping trajectory which points to a higher exchange rate.

The Canadian Economy Could Accelerate

The opening of the Canadian economy has been slower than expected, according to Finance Minister Freeland. The lack of demand has come from the most recent lockdowns and the lack of vaccination. The vaccination stream will likely pick up as shots make their way to Canada. The upshot is that the government seems willing to continue to support revenue programs to businesses and households well beyond the dates initially agreed upon in September.

Silver Price Prediction – Prices Rebound but Face Headwinds

Silver prices rebounded on Wednesday after falling below trend line support earlier in the week. The dollar moved lower, which failed to buoy gold prices, but copper gained a foothold as concerns over the spread of the virus disappeared slightly.  U.S. Yields were mixed following the U.S. 20-year auction, where the yield needed to rise to gain buyers.

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Technical analysis

Silver prices dropped rebounded on Wednesday after falling for three consecutive trading sessions. Target support is seen near a horizontal line seen near 23.86. Resistance is seen former support near $25.55.  Additional resistance is seen near the 20-day moving average at 25.95. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. The fast stochastic has moved up from printing a reading of 6, to 22 above the oversold trigger level of 20, reflecting positive momentum. Medium-term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The MACD histogram is printing in negative territory with a sliding trajectory which points to lower prices.

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rally Ahead of Inventory Report

Natural gas continued to break out to fresh contract highs on Wednesday, the third consecutive day with a higher close. The rally comes ahead of Thursday’s inventory report from the Department of Energy. Expectations are for a 48 Bcf draw in stockpiles according to survey provider Estimize. Warmer than normal weather is expected to cover most of the United States over the next 6-10 and 8-14 days. According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, there is one tropical storm in the Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico that has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48-hours.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices continued to rise on Wednesday. The August contract closed at an all-time high for the third consecutive trading session. Target resistance is now the 2018 highs at 4.92. Support is seen near the former highs at 3.82 and then the 10-day moving average at 3.74. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Prices are overbought. The current reading on the RSI is 71 above the overbought trigger level of 70 which could foreshadow a correction. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line crosses above the MACD signal line. The MACD histogram also generated a crossover buy signal.

Gold Price Prediction – Gold Prices Edge Lower and Continue Rangebound Trade

Gold prices moved lower on Wednesday and continued to consolidate. The dollar sold off but the decline in the greenback failed to lift the yellow metal. Since gold prices are quoted in U.S. dollars, the decline in the greenback should have helped lift gold prices. U.S. Yields moved higher on Wednesday following a softer than anticipated U.S. Treasury auction. Gold prices have failed to benefit from safe-haven flows, and have not been able to gain traction when riskier assets are rallying. One of the issues is that managed money is net long futures and options. The current open interest according to the latest commitment of traders report from the CFTC shows managed money has 3-times as many long positions in futures and options as short-positions.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices moved lower on Wednesday but continued a consolidative tone.  Support is seen near the 20-day moving average at 1,797.  Resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 1,836. Short-term momentum has flip-flopped, turning negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. Medium-term momentum is decelerating. The MACD histogram is printing in positive territory with a declining trajectory which points to consolidation. Despite the sideways price action, gold continues to trade in a short-term uptrend. If the recent resurgence in the greenback subsides, gold prices are likely to benefit.

USD/CAD Exchange Rate Prediction – The Loonie Gains a Foothold Despite Overall Greenback Strength

The USD/CAD gave back some of Monday’s gains following a trend line breakout on Monday. The dollar was broadly higher against most major currencies but failed to continue to gain traction versus the Loonie. U.S. yields were mixed with the 10-year yield rising after falling sharply on Monday. The economic highlight of the week for Canada is the May retail sales report on Friday. In the U.S. better than expected Housing Starts lifted the long end of the interest rate curve.

Technical analysis

The USD/CAD gave back some of the gains it experienced this week following Monday 1.2% gain.  The currency pair sliced through resistance which is now support near the April highs at 1.2658. Target resistance is seen near the February highs at 1.2864. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. The movement from overbought on the fast stochastic near 91, down to 74, reflects accelerating short-term negative momentum. Medium-term momentum is positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in positive territory with an upward sloping trajectory which points to a higher exchange rate.

Yields Bounce On Strong Housing Data

U.S. long-term treasury yields bounced on Tuesday after tumbling on Monday due to safe-haven flows. Robust U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits helped buoy U.S. Yields. According to the Commerce Department, Housing starts rose 6.3% in June. Building permits fell 5.1% in June.

Silver Price Prediction – Silver Drops as Momentum Remains Negative

Silver prices dropped again on Tuesday following a robust decline on Monday. The dollar edged higher, weighing on silver and generating headwinds for the entire precious metals complex.  U.S. Yields where mixed.  Another piece of the housing puzzle was released on Tuesday with the Commerce Department reported Housing Starts and building permits.

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Technical analysis

Silver prices dropped on Tuesday for a third consecutive trading session headed to a horizontal support line seen near 23.86. Resistance is seen former suport near $25.55.  Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. The fast stochastic has moved lower, printing a reading of 6, well below the oversold trigger level of 20, foreshadowing a correction. Medium-term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

Homebuilding Increased in June

Housing starts in the United States rose more than expected in June. According to the Commerce Department, Housing starts rose 6.3% in June. Data for May was revised down. Expectations had been for housing starts to rise to 1.59 million units. Permits for future homebuilding fell 5.1% in June. Demand for housing is driven by declining interest rates and despite robust increases in home building materials such as lumber.

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Break Out as Weather Remains Warmer than Normal

Natural gas prices broke out to fresh contract high on Tuesday the second consecutive day with a higher close. Warmer than normal weather is expected to cover most of the United States over the next 6-10 and 8-14 days. According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, there are no tropical storms in the Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico that are expected to become tropical cyclones over the next 48-hours.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices moved higher on Tuesday broke out. The August contract closed at an all-time high for the second consecutive trading session. Target resistance is now the 2018 highs at 4.92. Support is seen near the former highs at 3.82 and then the 10-day moving average at 3.70. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line crosses above the MACD signal line. The MACD histogram also generated a crossover buy signal.

Mexican Exports Rise

Average Exports per day of Natural gas to Mexico surpassed 7 Bcf in June. According to the EIA the record for the month was 7.4 Bcf per day as increased power demand and greater industrial demand drove volumes. Additionally, new pipeline capabilities in the U.S. and Mexico have facilities the interconnections throughout Mexico to natural gas-fired power plants.

Gold Price Prediction – Prices Consolidate as the Dollar Continues to Rally

Gold prices moved lower on Tuesday experiencing whipsaw price action. The dollar continued to rally as the move into the greenback seems to be a flight to safe-haven assets. Since gold prices are quoted in U.S. dollars, the rallying greenback is weighing on gold prices. The rally in the dollar comes despite mixed U.S. yields. A stronger than anticipated move-in Housing Starts and Building Permits failed to buoy the interest rate markets.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices dropped moved sideways and now is squarely caught in a tight range.  Support is seen near the 20-day moving average at 1,795.  Resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 1,836. Short-term momentum has flip-flopped, turning negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. Medium-term momentum is decelerating. The MACD histogram is printing in positive territory with a declining trajectory which points to consolidation.

Housing Starts Rise More than Expected

U.S. homebuilding rose more than expected in June. According to the Commerce Department, Housing starts rose 6.3% to an annual rate of 1.643 million units in June. Data for May was revised down. Expectations had been for housing starts to rise to 1.59 million units. Permits for future homebuilding fell 5.1% to a rate of 1.598 million units in June. Demand for housing is being driven by low mortgage rates and migration to suburban and rural areas from cities.

Silver Price Prediction – Prices Drop as Momentum Turns Negative

Silver prices dropped sharply on Monday following a robust decline on Friday. The dollar edged higher, weighing on silver and generating headwinds for the entire precious metals complex.  U.S. Yields moved lower as investors moved into safe-haven assets.  The Home Builders index edged slightly lower, which paved the way for lower yields.

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Technical analysis

Silver prices dropped sharply on Monday for the second consecutive trading position slicing through trend line support and headed to a horizontal support line seen near 25.55. A break of this level would lead to a test of the March lows at 23.86. Resistance is seen near the 20-day moving average at 20.02.  Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. The fast stochastic has moved lower, printing a reading of 6, well below the oversold trigger level of 20, foreshadowing a correction. Medium-term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

U.S. Homebuilder Buyer Traffic Dropped

The combination of higher construction costs and the spread of the delta variant of COVID eroded Homebuilder confidence. The National Association of Home Builders dropped 1 point to 80 in July. The index stood at 72 in July 2020. The index hit a record high of 90 in November of last year.While lumber prices have fallen by more than 50% in the lumber futures market, those savings have not yet trickled down to builders, remodelers or consumers.

USD/CAD Exchange Rate Prediction – The Dollar Surges on Safe-Haven Bid

The USD/CAD rallied on Monday breaking out and hitting highs not seen since February. The dollar was broadly higher against most major currencies as fears of the Delta variant of the COVID virus weighed on riskier assets. U.S. yields declined sharply and stocks fell, which gave the greenback a safe haven bid. The economic highlight of the week for Canada is the May retail sales report on Friday, which is expected to be weak. On Monday, the National Association of Home Builders reported a dip in their July index to 80. The index hit a record high of 90 in November of last year. Of the index’s three components, current sales conditions fell 1 point to 86. Buyer traffic declined 6 points to 65, and sales expectations in the next six months rose 2 points to 81.

Technical analysis

The USD/CAD surged on Monday rising 1.2% after increasing 1.3% last week. The surged in the currency pair is likely due to an increase in the demand for safe-haven assets. The currency pair sliced through resistance which is now support near the April highs at 1.2658. Target resistance is seen near the February highs at 1.2864. The exchange rate is overbought. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 91, above the overbought trigger level of 80 which foreshadows a correction. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Medium-term momentum is positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in positive territory with an upward sloping trajectory which points to a higher exchange rate.

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Break Out and Close at Contract Highs

Natural gas prices broke out above short-term resistance and closed at a fresh contract high on Monday. Warmer than normal weather is expected to cover most of the West Coast and mid-West over the next 2-weeks. The weather on the East coast is expected to become milder. According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, there are no tropical storms in the Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico that are expected to become tropical cyclones over the next 48-hours. Production of Natural gas in the U.S. Increased week over week.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices moved higher on Monday and broke out above a short-term trend line. The August contract closed at an all-time high. Short-term resistance is seen near the July highs at 3.82. A break of this level could lead to a test of the 2018 highs at 4.92. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 3.67. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Medium-term negative momentum is decelerating. The MACD histogram is printing in negative territory with a rising trajectory which points to consolidation.

U.S. Production Rise

U.S. production increases 1.1% compared with last week. According to data from the EIA, the average total supply of natural gas rose by 1.1% compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production grew by 1.0% compared with the previous report week. Average net imports from Canada increased by 2.7% from last week.

Gold Price Prediction – Gold Slides on Dollar Strength

 

Gold prices continued to move lower on Monday as the dollar edged higher. The move into the greenback seems to be a flight to safe-haven assets. Since gold prices are quoted in U.S. dollars, the rallying greenback is weighing on gold prices. The rally in the dollar comes despite lower U.S. yields which dropped following a weaker than expected home builders index. Bonds are also benefiting from a flight to quality.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices dropped again on Monday. Prices touch support is seen near the 20-day moving average at 1,794.  Resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 1,8367. Short-term momentum has flip-flopped, turning negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. The fast stochastic has dropped rom overbought territory reflects accelerating negative momentum. Medium-term momentum is decelerating. The MACD histogram is printing in positive territory with a declining trajectory which points to consolidation.

Home Builders Confidence Slips

Higher construction costs are starting to eat away at Homebuilder confidence. A monthly sentiment index from the National Association of Home Builders dropped 1 point to 80 in July. The index stood at 72 in July 2020. The index hit a record high of 90 in November of last year. Of the index’s three components, current sales conditions fell 1 point to 86. Buyer traffic declined 6 points to 65, and sales expectations in the next six months rose 2 points to 81.

Silver Price Prediction – Prices Drop Sharply Breaking Through Support and Poised to Test Lower Levels

Silver prices dropped sharply on Friday following a robust U.S. Retail Sales report. The dollar edged higher weighing on silver and generating headwinds for the entire precious metals complex.  U.S. Yields moved higher but failed to gain significant traction despite a much stronger than expected U.S. retail sales report.  For the week silver prices were down approximately 1.4%. The U.S. Commerce Department reported that U.S. Retail sales increased by 0.6% month over month. Had been for U.S. retail sales to fall by 0.3%.

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Technical analysis

Silver prices dropped sharply on Friday breaking through trend line support and headed to a horizontal support line seen near 25.55. A break of this level would lead to a test of the March lows at 25.55. Resistance is seen near the 20-day moving average at 20.06.  Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. The fast stochastic has moved lower printing a reading of 11, well below the oversold trigger level of 20 which foreshadows a correction. Medium-term positive momentum is decelerating as the MACD histogram is printing in negative territory with a sliding trajectory which points to consolidation.

Retail Sales Surge

Retail sales rose 0.6% last month. Expectations were for retail sales to decline by 0.3%. Sales surged 18.0% year over year. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales increased 1.1% last month. Core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product.

USD/CAD Exchange Rate Prediction – The Dollar Consolidates after a Strong Week

The USD/CAD eased on Friday but finished the week up 1.3%. Strong dollar gains came in the wake of higher than expected inflation figures. On Friday, the U.S. Commerce Department report stronger than expected U.S. retail sales which will feed into GDP growth. The dollar was broadly mixed against most major currencies. U.S. yields were slightly higher but remain under pressure following Fed Chair Powells testimony this week which shows that Fed is steadfast about keeping rates unchanged, despite rising inflation expectations.

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Technical analysis

The USD/CAD consolidated on Friday after hitting a 3-month high Thursday. The currency pair is poised to test resistance near the April highs at 1.2658. Support is seen near the 20-day moving average at 1.2418. Short-term momentum is positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. The exchange rate is overbought. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 91, above the overbought trigger level of 80 which foreshadows a correction. Medium-term momentum is positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in positive territory with an upward sloping trajectory which points to a higher exchange rate.

Retail Sales Increase More than Expected

U.S. Retail sales unexpectedly increased in June rising 0.6% compared to expectations that spending would decline by 0.3%. Sales surged 18.0% year over year. Most of the spending was in restaurants and hospitality as people started to travel and eat out in June. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services, retail sales increased 1.1% last month. This is a robust gain for a matrix that corresponds most direction with GDP growth. Recall, approximately 66% of U.S. GDP comes from consumer spending.

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Consolidate Forming Bull Flag Pattern

Natural gas prices moved higher on Friday but finished the week in the red. The U.S. rig count climbed more than expected up 3 to 104 instead of the 102 expected. The weather is expected to remain warmer than normal on the coasts and in the North but cooler than normal in the south. According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, there are no disturbances that are expected to become a tropical cyclone over the next 48-hours. U.S. Consumption of natural gas increase in the latest week due to strong power generation demand.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices moved higher on Friday but finished the week down 0.4%. Prices continue to form a bull flag continuation pattern which is a pause that refreshes. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 3.67. Support is seen near the July lows at 3.52. Medium-term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

Consumption Rose on Power Generation Demand

U.S. consumption increases based on a strong increase in power generation. According to the EIA, total U.S. consumption of natural gas rose by 2.1% compared with the previous report week. Natural gas consumed for power generation climbed by 3.4% week over week, especially in the West. Industrial sector consumption increased by 1.5% week over week. Residential and commercial sector consumption declined by 2.2%. Natural gas exports to Mexico increased 2.3%.

Gold Price Prediction – Prices Fall Edging Higher for the Week

Gold prices dropped sharply on Friday in the wake of the stronger than expected U.S. Retail Sales report. The dollar edged higher but U.S. yields were only slightly buoyed. For the week the Yellow metal was nearly unchanged up slightly.  The U.S. Commerce Department reported on Friday that U.S. Retail sales increased by 0.6% month over month. This compares to expectations that headline retail sales in the U.S. would fall by 0.3% month over month.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices were dropped sharply on Friday and remain rangebound. Support is seen near the 20-day moving average at 1,792.  Resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 1,837. Short-term momentum has flip-flopped, turning negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. The fast stochastic has moved from a reading of 91, above the overbought trigger level of 80, to 73, which reflects accelerating negative momentum. Medium-term momentum has shifted positively as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The MACD histogram is printing in positive territory with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.

U.S. Retail Sales Rise More than Expected

Retail sales rose 0.6% last month. The May reading was revised lower showing retail sales fell 1.7% instead of declining 1.3% as previously reported. Expectations were for retail sales to decline by 0.3%. Sales surged 18.0% year over year but the baseline is altered by sales during the pandemic. Spending is now rotating back to services like travel and entertainment, with at least 160 million Americans fully immunized against COVID-19. Certain services like restaurant and bar sales are counted while travel and hotel accommodations are not picked up by the retail sales numbers.