Gold Fundamental Forecast – September 19, 2016

Gold continued to edge down leading into next week’s FOMC meeting. Gold dipped $3 to trade at 1314.95 its lowest point in months. Gold steadied above two-week lows on Friday after downbeat U.S. data curbed already muted expectations for a U.S. rate rise next week but uncertainty over monetary policy kept the metal on track for its first weekly loss in three.

The CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed futures traders are now pricing in a 12 percent chance of a rate rise this month, down from 15 percent on Wednesday, after soft U.S. retail sales and manufacturing output data.

That kept a lid on the dollar, which was little changed on the week on Friday, and underpinned gold after its 1 percent slide this week. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed futures traders are now pricing in a 12% chance of a rate rise this month; down from 15% on Wednesday, after soft US retail sales and manufacturing output data.

That kept a lid on the dollar, which was little changed on the week on Friday, and underpinned gold after its 1 percent slide this week. Gold is highly sensitive to rising US interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced.

While expectations for a September rate rise have faded, a new Reuter’s poll of 100 economists showed a median 70% chance of an increase in December. That could weigh still on gold, which has rallied 24% this year on expectations that the Federal Reserve would hold off on further interest rate rises.

Investment appetite for the precious metal was soft, with holdings of the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares, falling 3.3 tonnes on Thursday.

Demand for gold in India remained lackluster this week as higher prices hampered consumer purchases, though discounts narrowed due to a correction in the spot rate.

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

gold

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 September 19, 2016

Cur. Event   Forecast Previous  
  Holiday Japan – Respect for the Aged Day
  NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment     106.0

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Holds OLO auction

Sep 20 11:30 UK Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

Copper Fundamental Forecast – September 19, 2016

Copper gave back a few points as the greenback rallied and traders booked profits after coppers gains this week. Overall traders have moved to the sidelines ahead of the Bank of Japan and the FOMC decisions next week. Copper is trading at 2.155. Copper hit a three-week peak on Friday before retreating on a steadier dollar, and was still set to log its largest weekly rise in two months as China’s latest economic data suggests stronger growth in the next few months.

Encouraging signals from China’s housing market and indications of a revival in its factory sector over the summer have encouraged views that demand is quietly cranking up for the third quarter. Markets in China remained closed for the Mid-Autumn Festival, thinning trade flows.

Copper prices have been on the decline this summer, depressed by reports of oversupply and, worse, an exodus of inventory from top consumer China. Chinese demand also remains the chief determinant of prices, but even China — consumer of half the world’s supply — will struggle to overcome the surplus of supply next year. With little evidence to suggest Chinese demand is going pick up dramatically CRU are probably right that even if prices pick up a little in Q4 we are set for further weakness next year.

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

copper

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 September 19, 2016

Cur. Event   Forecast Previous  
  Holiday Japan – Respect for the Aged Day
  NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment     106.0

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Holds OLO auction

Sep 20 11:30 UK Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

 

Natural Gas Fundamental Forecast – September 19, 2016

Natural Gas dipped 43 points as traders booked profits with global commodities moving lower and the firmer US dollar weighing on the markets. Natural gas is trading at 2.884. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that supplies of the commodity rose 62 billion cubic feet for the week ended Sept. 9. That was in line with the average rise of between 59 billion and 63 billion cubic feet expected by analysts polled by S&P Global Platts. Total stocks now stand at 3.499 trillion cubic feet, up 184 billion cubic feet from a year ago and 299 billion cubic feet above the five-year average, the government said.

Shell’s LNG fueling stations in Waalhaven and elsewhere are just one piece in a grand strategy to build new markets for the company’s growing natural-gas business—and get a jump on the competition.

Shell is the most active of the international oil companies in LNG for transportation fuel. But all the big oil companies are focusing more on natural gas, jockeying for market position in the expectation that gas will be the world’s fastest-growing fossil fuel over the next two decades, thanks in part to tougher environmental standards around the globe that give gas an advantage over other fossil fuels.

Natural gas now accounts for about half of the production of most of the world’s biggest oil companies and is expected to dominate new output in the coming years. France’s Total SA plans to boost its LNG production capacity by 50% by 2020. Britain’s BP PLC expects roughly 60% of its production will be gas by the end of the decade, up from 44% in the first half of this year.

Natural Gas Weekly Weather Outlook (www.natgasweather.com)

Sept 14-20th: High pressure continues to dominate the southern US with very warm highs of mid-80s to 90s. Although, comfortable temperatures of 70s to lower 80s have spread across the Great Lakes and northeastern, but will warm briefly today and during the middle of next week in between additional weather systems sweeping through. Weather systems into the West will bring cooler temperatures the next few days, but warming after. A weak tropical system over the Southeast will bring heavy showers, but also with cooling. Overall, nat gas demand will be LOW over the northern US and MODERATE to HIGH over the southern US.

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)

natural-gas

Should Presidential Candidates Be Required To Make Full Disclosures Prior To Running For Office

As we move closer and closer to the November election date in the US the campaign for president continues to heat up. The polls are bouncing back and forth with Hillary Clinton maintaining a small lead. This week politics and the views of the candidates were sidetracked by medical issue which turned into the week’s hot debate subject. At the 15th anniversary memorial of the 9/11 terrorist attack Hillary Clinton was discretely rushed off after she looked faint. Here team was quick to announce that she was down with a slight case of pneumonia and became overheated. Within 3 days she was back on the campaign trail but it did not take Donald Trump and his team to turn this event into a political hot potato saying that Hillary Clinton was medically unfit to hold office.

fireshot-pro-screen-capture-1534-ballot-access-for-presidential-candidates-ballotpedia-ballotpedia_org_ballot_access_for_presidential_candida

This helped the Donald to sidetrack the public discussions on his economic plans and his immigration programs and his tax returns and hit fitness to hold office. This is the Donald’s modus operandi as the master of the three ring circus and the sleight of hand.

Regardless of where you stand politically, regardless which party you support or which candidate you favor we must first and foremost support the Unites State of America, the office of the President and the people of the United States.

My question is a simple one, when I apply for a job, I am required to provide references, education transcripts, sometimes credit bureau reports and bank statement. Recently some companies have turned to lie detector tests and psychological disclosures. I am required to get finger printed and provide my criminal history. If I a private citizen must go through all of this disclosure to provide transparency to a potential employer, why do not candidates for the most important jobs in the world have to make full disclosure, not at their leisure but as a legal requirement before or when submitting their names to the Federal Election Commission.

A candidate should be required to provide documents such as birth certificate, education credentials, tax returns and should have a full physical conducted by the office of the Surgeon General of the United States. A candidate should have to disclose any and all pending lawsuits in which they are named as well as full financial disclosure. This doesn’t mean for the Federal Election Commission to rate or evaluate this information this means that this data is provided for the public to review when the person submits his name for the highest office in the land.

how-to-become-president

We have seen lately, Donald Trump hide his tax returns under the guise of an audit, mislead the public on his donations and support for charities, deceive the public on his net worth and lord know what else. He uses these as a shield as he attacks Hillary Clinton, who has been a public servant whose records are a matter of public for many years, as a private businessman, the actions of Donald Trump have not been under a microscope for years as he has never been a public figure outside of his media carnival.

The fact is the next President of the United States and the ones that follow each 4 years after are the most powerful persons in the world. They control the economy, they control the military and they decide the laws of this land. Even though we have separation of power the actions of any president can cause Wall Street to tumble, can cause gold to skyrocket and can at any time bring us to the brink of war.

victory-presidential

Don’t you think any person who can vote should be able to review full disclosures about each candidate and not rely on what they say or don’t say. Perhaps if full disclosure was necessary we might have more speeches and debates on real economic issues, real plans and programs to held the poor, to deal with immigration and terrorism. The public debate should be about what a candidate does, stands for and what they believe and how they would lead the United States. Not about their sex, their health, their wealth or taxes or their contributions to charity.

 

What Is The Fall In Precious Metal Prices Trying To Tell Us

Precious metals prices slid yesterday to a two-week low after a mixed bag of U.S. economic data prompted selling ahead of next week’s U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting. Gold is flat on Friday morning at 1317.15 which indicates that more traders than are thinking that the Fed might raise rates next week while remaining unsure of what to expect from the Bank of Japan. Silver is tracking gold at 18.962 while platinum remains above its support at 1000. Platinum is trading at 1030.70 down $3.25 this morning.

gold

SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange traded fund, said its holdings stood at 932.22 down 3.27 tonnes, from previous business day.  Holdings of the largest silver backed exchange-traded-fund (ETF), New York’s iShares Silver Trust SLV, stood at 11281.84 tonnes, remain unchanged from previous business day.

Precious metals futures are trading flat on COMEX. Analysts expect prices to trade range bound for the day, after disappointing U.S. economic data reduced the chances of an interest rate hike next week, though the metal was still on track for its first weekly loss in three.

silver-technical-prices

US Dollar Index traded on a flat note in this morning’s trading session owing to the disappointing release of economic datasets from the nation. Decline in consumer spending has affected retail sales which fell by more than the forecasted levels in August’16. Industrial production, Producer Price Index and capacity utilization rate has also declined more than the forecasted levels thereby adding to the woes.

Due to all the above factors, markets feel that the inflation rate in future months will still remain under the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target, also constrained by sluggish wage growth. This has dimmed the possibility of a rate hike in the next week’s FOMC meeting. US Dollar Index made an intraday low of 95.06 and ended at 95.28 levels on Thursday and is holding at 95.30 in the Asian session this morning.

Markets are pricing in just a 15 percent chance that the Fed will hike U.S. interest rates during its Sept. 20-21 meeting, according to CME FedWatch. Many now expect a rise in December after the U.S. presidential election.

copper

Industrial metal nickel slumped to the lowest in more than two months on Thursday after worries eased that an environmental crackdown in the Philippines would create shortages. Copper on the other hand soared to its highest level in week against a stronger US dollar. Copper is trading at 2.162 up by 2 points in the morning session. Industrial metals are trading mix on International bourses today. Speculators expect prices to trade range bound for the day as China’s economy shows signs of finding its feet, and concerns seeing the chances of rate hike next week in U.S. are reducing.

Copper settled up 0.23% touching its highest since Aug. 22 on a spate of upbeat Chinese data. Copper prices are holding up well above 320 level compared to other base metals which are still under pressure as support also seen from stocks of copper which slipped 0.7 percent, or 2,275 tonnes, to 349,225 tonnes, data from the LME showed. LME Copper had edged down 0.1 percent to $4,767.50 a tonne, having jumped 2.6 percent on Wednesday when it also touched its loftiest since Aug. 22 at $4,781. Activity seems to be in the range in today’s session as China’s financial markets are closed from Thursday through Sunday for the Mid-Autumn Festival. Meanwhile, Japanese manufacturers’ confidence bounced from a three-year low, while sentiment in the services sector hit its lowest since 2013 when the central bank began bold monetary stimulus, underscoring a fragile economic recovery. Sentiments improved as China’s economy shows signs of finding its feet. Also encouraging signals out of China’s housing market and indications of a revival in its factory sector over the summer have stoked views that demand is quietly cranking up for the third quarter.

Oil Speculators Are Selling As Global Production Continues To Climb

The only volatility in the market comes from the continued fall in oil prices. WTI oil fell 24 cents in the Asian session to trade at 43.67 and Brent sea oil fell to 46.35. The decline in oil prices is weighing on energy stocks around the globe and also keeping market sentiment near risk off mode. The outlook for global demand improved a bit as stocks rallied on speculation the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates low through the year. Prices tanked earlier in the week amid signs the global supply glut will worsen before coming under control sometime in 2017. The IEA warned that non-OPEC production is picking up. Crude oil prices rose about 1 percent or more on Thursday after tracking a rally in gasoline futures sparked by a delayed restart of the main gasoline line at Colonial Pipeline, the No. 1 carrier for the motor fuel in the United States.

oil-price-chart-with-technical

The US oil rig counts released later today are expected to have risen again this week. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, distillate inventories including diesel, increased by 4.619 million barrels last week, much higher than expectations for a rise of 1.543 million barrels. The jump was the biggest weekly build since January and put distillate stocks at six-year seasonal highs. The report also showed that gasoline inventories rose by 567,000 barrels, disappointing expectations for a 343,000-barrel drop. For crude oil inventories, the EIA reported a drop of 559,000 barrels, compared to forecasts for a gain of 3.8 million barrels.

crude-oil-productionOver the previous two sessions, oil prices fell 6 percent, pressured by data showing large weekly builds in U.S. petroleum products, and forecasts by the world’s energy watchdog and OPEC that signaled the global crude glut could persist into 2017.

Meanwhile, oil traders continued to weigh prospects that major oil producing nations will freeze output to support the market when they meet later this month. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, led by Saudi Arabia and other big Middle East crude exporters, will meet non-OPEC producers led by Russia at informal talks in Algeria between September 26 and 28. An attempt to jointly freeze production levels earlier this year failed after Saudi Arabia backed out over Iran’s refusal to take part of the initiative, underscoring the difficulty for political rivals to forge consensus.

Libya is resuming oil exports from some of its main ports which forces loyal to eastern commander Khalaf Haftar seized in recent days and has lifted related “force majeure” contractual clauses, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) said on Thursday.

Authorities in a port controlled by Yemen’s Houthi movement have seized two oil tankers from international traders in a payment dispute, according to the ships’ owners, an incident which could make it more difficult for the country to import vital supplies.

Speculators expect prices to trade range bound for the day, on worries that U.S. rig counts would continue to rise and that returning Libyan and Nigerian exports would stoke a global supply glut.

Market Volume Low As Traders Focus On Next Weeks Events

With the Federal Reserve in black out mode and a lack of data on the economic schedule markets are expected to remain fairly quiet today. China is out for a local holiday and Japan is closed on Monday. The US dollar has been holding onto its gains as the Fed and the BoJ meeting remain the focus of the markets. The greenback is trading at 95.30 and the euro is steady down 3 points at 1.1241, the pound is down 5 points at 1.3236 and the Loonie has declined 4 points to 1.3152.

us-dollar

In Asia this morning the USD/JPY eased 5 points to 102.03 and matching the declines in the Aussie which is holding at 0.7514 and the kiwi is flat at 0.7314. Markets are one big yawn. Asian markets are up with Japan’s Nikkei up 0.42% ahead of next week’s FOMC Meeting. Shanghai is closed for the second on mid-autumn festival.

US markets gained on Thursday after weak U.S. retail sales data undermined the argument that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week. European markets closed broadly up on Thursday after the Bank of England kept rates at 0.25% and announced there would be no change to its £70 billion ($92 billion) quantitative easing program. Dow Jones closed at 18212, advancing 178 points. the S&P 500 was up 21 points to close at 2147 and Nasdaq gained 76 points or 1.5% to close at 5250. European markets also closed positive, FTSE advanced by 57 points to close at 6730, CAC was up 3 points to close at 4373 and DAX gained 53 points to close at 10431.

nikkei

Wall Street closed higher led by gains in technology and health care companies. Apple extends its gains on Thursday as investors became more optimistic about early sales of its newest iPhone models. Further, weak economic data rest speculation that

US Federal Reserve may not be as aggressive in raising interest rates. The Labor Department said producer prices fell in August as gas and food prices declined. Further, report by the Commerce Department showed that U.S. retail sales declined in August, the first since March. Sales at retail stores, online and at restaurants fell 0.3% in August to a seasonally adjusted $456.32 billion last month, the Commerce Department said Thursday.

sp-500

Moreover, data showed that weekly jobless claims ticked up slightly to 260,000 but the level of layoffs continues to be the lowest since the 1970s. Also, Industrial production in the US contracted in August, fell 0.4% in August, after expanding in the previous two months, the Federal Reserve said on Thursday. Investors have been closely looking at economic data, evaluating the possibility the central bank raises interest rates.

US business inventories were virtually unchanged in July after rising by 0.2 percent in June. Inventories had been expected to inch up by 0.1 percent. While retail inventories fell by 0.3 percent in July after climbing by 0.4 percent in June, manufacturing inventories inched up by 0.1 percent after coming in flat in the previous month.

NZD/USD Fundamental Forecast – September 19, 2016

The NZD/USD is completely flat this morning with little volume as traders prepare for the central bank meeting next week. The kiwi is trading at 0.7314 near the lower end of its trading range as the US dollar remains strong on the possibility of a rate increase.

There is no data due in New Zealand until the middle of the week but the big attraction will be the livestock prices as meat returns to the auction block. Rabobank has warned beef producers to look beyond the current high prices. In a new report on the New Zealand and Australian beef industry, Rabobank animal protein analyst Matthew Costello said farmgate prices were expected to hold around current levels in the short-term but will come under pressure from a global hike in protein production in the lead up to 2020.  However, prices were still expected to be higher than the historic average, he said.

A shortage of cattle for the domestic market was also fueling prices. But the US domestic market was “very soft” and potentially would put pressure on export returns, Wilson said.  The strong local market had not been supported by the export schedule so margins were tightening for cattle farmers. The exchange rate is also set to depress export lamb returns this season, said Silver Fern Farms’ Hamilton.

“The season doesn’t start for another month or so, and the first big selling period is the chilled Christmas market in the UK. That currency this time last year was NZ43c (to the British pound), now it’s 55c. That’s close to 30 per cent worse in the currency for selling into the UK.”

More than 50 per cent of New Zealand’s lamb legs are exported to UK retail stores.  Hamilton said following the UK vote to exit the European Union, New Zealand lamb would be competing against British lamb exports in Europe. UK lamb production was lifting as farmers tried to offset the post-Brexit weaker pound.  “So we’ll be competing against UK lamb when we wouldn’t historically be and bigger numbers out of the UK,” Hamilton said.

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

nzdusd

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 September 19, 2016

Cur. Event   Forecast Previous  
  Holiday Japan – Respect for the Aged Day
  NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment     106.0

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Holds OLO auction

Sep 20 11:30 UK Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

 

 

AUD/USD Fundamental Forecast – September 19, 2016

The AUD/USD dipped 5 points as the greenback remained positive moving into the Fed meeting next week and the possibility of a rate increase this year still remains strong. The Aussie is trading at 0.7515 right in the range set by the RBA.  There is a lack of data today and will leave currencies sitting tight over the weekend. China is on holiday and Japan is out on Monday for local celebrations.  The next big event for the Aussie will be on Tuesday when the RBA releases the minutes from their last meeting along with housing prices.

The greenback avoided major swings after an array of mediocre US economic data lessened the odds the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates next week. Although most Fed watchers did not previously view a September interest rate hike as likely, those chances diminished further after the Commerce Department reported that US retail sales fell 0.3 per cent in August from the prior month.

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

audusd

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 September 19, 2016

Cur. Event   Forecast Previous  
  Holiday Japan – Respect for the Aged Day
  NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment     106.0

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Holds OLO auction

Sep 20 11:30 UK Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

USD/JPY Fundamental Forecast – September 19, 2016

The USD/JPY dipped 5 points to trade at 102.03 falling to the lower end of its trading range as traders are sidelined ahead of next week’s big events. There is no action expected with both the BoJ and the FOMC decisions on Wednesday. The US dollar index retreated from the highest this month after Fed Governor Lael Brainard started the week by saying the case for tighter policy “is less compelling.” That speech was followed by a retail sales report that fell short of analysts’ forecasts. A measure of economic data surprises slumped to the lowest since June. The probability of Fed action by year-end is at the lowest in a month, while that for next week’s meeting has fallen to 18 percent.

With so little consensus on what Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will come up with for the Sept. 21 policy decision, investors are abstaining from any positions in the yen, while JPMorgan says some investors have closed out bets on declines in the dollar versus the yen. Such is the consternation that the options premium on contracts to buy the currency in a month’s time disappeared for the first time since November, before reversing course this week.

Most Japanese businesses see the central bank’s aggressive monetary stimulus as achieving its stated goal of spurring inflation, a Reuters poll found, with firms citing negative fallout from the program more than positive effects.

Desperate to stimulate growth, encourage capital investment and reverse price declines, the Bank of Japan has embraced negative interest rates, bought up massive amounts of bonds and snapped up riskier assets such as exchange-traded funds.

Asked in a monthly Reuters Corporate Survey to assess the impact of 3-1/2 years of super easy money policy by picking two effects from a series of options, only 6 percent of firms said the BOJ had paved a path towards defeating deflation or accelerating inflation – the very aim of its stimulus program.

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

usdjpy

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 September 19, 2016

Cur. Event   Forecast Previous  
  Holiday Japan – Respect for the Aged Day
  NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment     106.0

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Holds OLO auction

Sep 20 11:30 UK Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

 

 

GBP/USD Fundamental Forecast – September 16, 2016

The GBP/USD 1.3237 making no moves after The Bank of England held fire and kept its key interest rate on Thursday, after reducing it to a record low last month, as recent data suggested that the economy is set to escape a recession after the initial ‘Brexit’ shock. The Monetary Policy Committee held its key bank rate at 0.25 percent and the quantitative easing at GBP 435 billion in the policy meeting on September 15.

Policymakers had lowered the key rate by a quarter-point in August, which was the first cut in more than seven years. The bank also boosted its asset purchase program by GBP 60 billion.

Last week, BoE Chief Mark Carney was criticized by lawmakers in a hearing for being too pessimistic after the ‘Brexit vote’. He was also asked to justify the loosening stance adopted in August.

UK retail sales decreased at a slower-than-expected pace in August, after rebounding in the previous month, data from the Office for National Statistics showed Thursday. Retail sales volume including automotive fuel dropped 0.2 percent month-over-month in August, reversing a 1.9 percent climb in July. Sales were expected to fall by 0.4 percent.

Likewise, excluding auto fuel, retail sales volume declined 0.3 percent from July, when it grew by 2.1 percent. That was below the 0.7 percent decrease expected by economists.

With a crucial Federal Reserve policy meeting on September 21, the Fed has imposed a blackout period on public comments from FOMC members. This will allow the markets to be completely focused on Thursday’s key releases. The US will publish retail sales, PPI, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and unemployment claims. Retail Sales will be closely watched, as a weak reading will likely reduce the odds of a Fed rate hike. Recent comments from Fed officials have been almost contradictory and failed to shed any light on the Fed’s monetary plans. On Monday, FOMC member Lael Brainard sounded cautious, saying it would be prudent to maintain a loose monetary policy. Brainard noted global uncertainties and weak inflation as reasons for the Fed not to rush into raising rates. This dovish message was in marked contrast to remarks from FOMC member Eric Rosengren last week, who came out in support of a rate hike, without providing a timeline. Rosengren said that “tightening is likely to be appropriate”, and went as far as to say that the US economy could overheat if the Fed didn’t act soon. As things currently stand, a September hike has been priced in at 15%, while the likelihood of a December move is 43%.

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

gbpusd

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 September 16, 2016

Country Name Volatility Previous Cons
EUR Labour cost 2 1.7
USD Consumer Price Index Core 2 247.71
USD Consumer Price Index M 2 0 0.1
USD Consumer Price Index   M 2 240.65 240.65
USD Consumer Price Index CORE M 2 0.1 0.2
USD Consumer Price Index CORE Y 3 2.2 2.2
USD Consumer Price Index Y 3 0.8 1
USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment 3 89.8 91
USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count 2 414

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 15 10:30 Spain 0.75% Jul 2021 Bono, 1.3% Oct 2026 bond & 1.95% Jul 2030

Sep 15 10:50 France Eur 5-6bn 0% Feb 2019 & May 2021 OATs

Sep 15 11:03 Sweden Sek 0.5bn 0.125% Jun 2019 I/L & Sek 0.5bn 4% Dec 2020 I/L

Sep 15 11:50 France Eur 0.75-1.25bn 0.1% Mar 2021 & Mar 2025 OAT

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Holds OLO auction

Sep 20 11:30 UK Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

 

 

Natural Gas Fundamental Forecast – September 16, 2016

Natural Gas remains near the top of its recent trading range as traders eagerly await the weekly EIA inventory report. NG is trading at 2.88 and is expected to begin rising even though we are moving into mid-season between summer and winter. Growing global demand for US exports will sooner or later push prices upward and back into the mid-$3 range.

Typically, natural gas prices retreat in the fall as mild weather reduces demand for the commodity to generate electricity to power air conditioners as heaters. Prices are also pressured this time of year as it is the typically storage addition season ahead of the peak winter demand season. Last week, natural gas supplies increased by a less-than-expected amount. The next inventory update is this Thursday.

Demand for natural gas to generate electricity has expanded as utilities have increased the amount of natural gas they use in their energy mix amid better availability and lower prices as a result of the shale oil boom. But, as natural gas prices approach $3 per million BTU, other sources of energy start to warrant more consideration.

Natural Gas Weekly Weather Outlook (www.natgasweather.com)

Sept 14-20th: High pressure continues to dominate the southern US with very warm highs of mid-80s to 90s. Although, comfortable temperatures of 70s to lower 80s have spread across the Great Lakes and northeastern, but will warm briefly today and during the middle of next week in between additional weather systems sweeping through. Weather systems into the West will bring cooler temperatures the next few days, but warming after. A weak tropical system over the Southeast will bring heavy showers, but also with cooling. Overall, nat gas demand will be LOW over the northern US and MODERATE to HIGH over the southern US.

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)

natural-gas

EUR/USD Fundamental Forecast – September 16, 2016

The EUR/USD remains range bound with a small decline today to trade at 1.1240 after CPI and PPI data met expectations but remain way too low to help the Eurozone economy. Traders cut the chances of a Fed rate hike at the central bank’s Sept 20-21 meeting to just 15 per cent from 21 per cent, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Goldman Sachs also further cut its view on the likelihood of a rate hike next week, dropping it to just 25 per cent from 40 per cent after the final round of Fed speakers on Monday.

July’s Eurozone Industrial Production figures proved disappointing on Wednesday, with output shown to have contracted further on both the year and the month. This suggested that the domestic economy remains in a less-than-robust state, raising concerns over the outlook of the industrial sector. The Euro (EUR) has also come under pressure thanks to renewed anxiety over Greece, with its next tranche of bailout funds possibly in jeopardy due to the slow pace of creditor-mandated reforms. Even so, with the European Central Bank (ECB) looking unlikely to ease policy further in the near future the single currency has remained generally biased to the upside.

Inflation in the Eurozone was confirmed at 0.2% in August, unchanged from July, according to data from Eurostat. Food, alcohol and tobacco prices rose 1.3%, down slightly from a 1.4% increase in July. Meanwhile, energy prices fell 5.6%, which was less than the 6.7% drop seen in July. For the European Union, inflation came in at 0.3%, up from 0.2% the month before. The largest upward impacts to euro area annual inflation came from restaurants & cafés, fruit and vegetables, while fuels for transport, heating oil and gas had the biggest downward impacts, the Eurostat said.

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 September 16, 2016

Country Name Volatility Previous Cons
EUR Labour cost 2 1.7
USD Consumer Price Index Core 2 247.71
USD Consumer Price Index M 2 0 0.1
USD Consumer Price Index   M 2 240.65 240.65
USD Consumer Price Index CORE M 2 0.1 0.2
USD Consumer Price Index CORE Y 3 2.2 2.2
USD Consumer Price Index Y 3 0.8 1
USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment 3 89.8 91
USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count 2 414

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 15 10:30 Spain 0.75% Jul 2021 Bono, 1.3% Oct 2026 bond & 1.95% Jul 2030

Sep 15 10:50 France Eur 5-6bn 0% Feb 2019 & May 2021 OATs

Sep 15 11:03 Sweden Sek 0.5bn 0.125% Jun 2019 I/L & Sek 0.5bn 4% Dec 2020 I/L

Sep 15 11:50 France Eur 0.75-1.25bn 0.1% Mar 2021 & Mar 2025 OAT

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Holds OLO auction

Sep 20 11:30 UK Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

 

 

DAX 30 Fundamental Forecast – September 16, 2016

The DAX 30 recovered some of this week’s losses climbing to 10400.50 but well below the 10700 range seen just days ago. Lackluster growth in inflation may force Mario Draghi to extend the ECB stimulus program which could help Eurozone shares. Asian stocks wavered on Thursday as investors grappled with the seemingly diminishing ability of major central banks to stimulate growth, while a tumble in crude oil inflamed already heightened risk aversion.

The U.S. Treasury yield curve hit its steepest in more than two months on Wednesday, while world stock markets edged lower as investors fretted about future U.S. interest rate hikes.

Eurozone inflation remained unchanged in August as estimated earlier, latest data from Eurostat showed Thursday. The harmonized index of consumer prices rose 0.2 percent year-on-year, same as in July. Prices increased for a third straight month. In June, inflation was 0.1 percent.

Headline inflation has been below the European Central Bank’s target of ‘below, but close to 2 percent’ since early 2013. Core inflation that excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, eased marginally to 0.8 percent from 0.9 percent in July. Both headline inflation and core inflation were in line with economists’ expectations. Inflation in the EU accelerated to 0.3 percent from 0.2 percent.

The inflation figure remained negative in 12 member states with Croatia, Bulgaria and Slovakia registering the lowest rates. The highest figures were seen in Belgium, Sweden and Estonia.

German economic sentiment stabilized in September after a modest recovery in the previous month amid mixed signals on exports and industrial production and overall European economy, results of a closely-watched survey showed Tuesday.

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment held steady at 0.5 points in September, which is well below its long-term average of 24.1 points, the Mannheim-based Centre for European Economic Research/ZEW said. Economists had expected further improvement in the index to 2.5.

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 September 16, 2016

Country Name Volatility Previous Cons
EUR Labour cost 2 1.7
USD Consumer Price Index Core 2 247.71
USD Consumer Price Index M 2 0 0.1
USD Consumer Price Index   M 2 240.65 240.65
USD Consumer Price Index CORE M 2 0.1 0.2
USD Consumer Price Index CORE Y 3 2.2 2.2
USD Consumer Price Index Y 3 0.8 1
USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment 3 89.8 91
USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count 2 414

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 15 10:30 Spain 0.75% Jul 2021 Bono, 1.3% Oct 2026 bond & 1.95% Jul 2030

Sep 15 10:50 France Eur 5-6bn 0% Feb 2019 & May 2021 OATs

Sep 15 11:03 Sweden Sek 0.5bn 0.125% Jun 2019 I/L & Sek 0.5bn 4% Dec 2020 I/L

Sep 15 11:50 France Eur 0.75-1.25bn 0.1% Mar 2021 & Mar 2025 OAT

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Holds OLO auction

Sep 20 11:30 UK Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

 

 

EUR/GBP Fundamental Forecast – September 16, 2016

The EUR/GBP 0.8494 down just a few points as Eurozone CPI remained flat and the Bank of England stood pat with no changes. Economists widely expect another cut in rates to 0.10 percent in November. If the MPC were to disappoint these expectations, then sterling could continue its recent rise. The BoE kept rates at 0.25 per cent amid signs it may have overestimated the initial shock to Britain’s economy from June’s Brexit vote after recent upbeat UK economic pointers.

There were no surprises from Eurozone CPI data in August. Final CPI remained unchanged at 0.2%, unchanged from a month earlier. The indicator has not risen above 0.3% in 2016, pointing to persistent low inflation levels on the continent. Germany, the largest economy in the Eurozone is also struggling with weak inflation. Final CPI dropped to 0.0% in August, down from 0.3% a month earlier. WPI posted a small gain of 0.1%, but this was enough to beat the forecast of -0.7%. The ECB has been reluctant to adopt further monetary easing, but may have to consider hinting at further action in order to restore market confidence in a Eurozone economy which is beset by weak growth and low inflation.

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

eurgbp

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 September 16, 2016

Country Name Volatility Previous Cons
EUR Labour cost 2 1.7
USD Consumer Price Index Core 2 247.71
USD Consumer Price Index M 2 0 0.1
USD Consumer Price Index   M 2 240.65 240.65
USD Consumer Price Index CORE M 2 0.1 0.2
USD Consumer Price Index CORE Y 3 2.2 2.2
USD Consumer Price Index Y 3 0.8 1
USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment 3 89.8 91
USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count 2 414

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 15 10:30 Spain 0.75% Jul 2021 Bono, 1.3% Oct 2026 bond & 1.95% Jul 2030

Sep 15 10:50 France Eur 5-6bn 0% Feb 2019 & May 2021 OATs

Sep 15 11:03 Sweden Sek 0.5bn 0.125% Jun 2019 I/L & Sek 0.5bn 4% Dec 2020 I/L

Sep 15 11:50 France Eur 0.75-1.25bn 0.1% Mar 2021 & Mar 2025 OAT

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Holds OLO auction

Sep 20 11:30 UK Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

 

 

Copper Fundamental Forecast – September 16, 2016

Copper drifted down 5 points after a significant rally this week and is trading at 2.15 after falling as low as 2.07. Yesterday copper has hit a three-week high, lifting European mining shares, as the US dollar falls and recent economic indicators in top consumer China point to brighter demand prospects.

The US dollar fell versus a currency basket as expectations that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week receded. A weaker US dollar makes dollar-priced commodities like copper cheaper for non-US investors.

China’s factory output and retail sales increased faster than expected in August, with growth supported by a strong housing market and government infrastructure spending.

Net new yuan loans by Chinese banks, meanwhile, more than doubled July’s tally, aided by the central bank’s accommodative monetary policy.

“The demand picture is relatively good for copper in terms of China and I think we’ve worked through a lot of those excess inventories,” said Oxford Economics analyst Dan Smith.

The supporting Chinese economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China improved the sentiment in the copper market on September 13. China is the largest copper consumer—it accounts for about 45% of the total global consumption. As a result, China’s economic data influence copper’s price and demand trends. China’s industrial production for August grew 6.3% year-over-year—the fastest grow in the past five months. This is better than the previous month’s growth of 6% and the market’s expectation of 6.1%.

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

copper

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 September 16, 2016

Country Name Volatility Previous Cons
EUR Labour cost 2 1.7
USD Consumer Price Index Core 2 247.71
USD Consumer Price Index M 2 0 0.1
USD Consumer Price Index   M 2 240.65 240.65
USD Consumer Price Index CORE M 2 0.1 0.2
USD Consumer Price Index CORE Y 3 2.2 2.2
USD Consumer Price Index Y 3 0.8 1
USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment 3 89.8 91
USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count 2 414

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 15 10:30 Spain 0.75% Jul 2021 Bono, 1.3% Oct 2026 bond & 1.95% Jul 2030

Sep 15 10:50 France Eur 5-6bn 0% Feb 2019 & May 2021 OATs

Sep 15 11:03 Sweden Sek 0.5bn 0.125% Jun 2019 I/L & Sek 0.5bn 4% Dec 2020 I/L

Sep 15 11:50 France Eur 0.75-1.25bn 0.1% Mar 2021 & Mar 2025 OAT

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Holds OLO auction

Sep 20 11:30 UK Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

 

 

Oil Fundamental Forecast – September 16, 2016

Crude Oil recovered some of its losses as speculator bought up the cheap commodity after several days of stiff declines. Oil is up 43 cents at 44.01 while Brent Oil gained 53 cents to reach 46.38. Oil, as is often the case, has been volatile this year, but some market observers’ bullish traders should wait until 2017, pointing to next as a prime time for oil prices to really rebound. While production has declined in the U.S., recently rebounding oil prices are encouraging exploration and production companies to revisit spending plans with some increasing capital expenditures. That has some oil market observers concerned about a rising rig count and the subsequent impact on crude prices.

“The majority of OPEC countries are in agreement that Iran should not halt oil production. Seeing as this was a last minute change of heart, Putin believes Iran is only a minor setback and the deal will ultimately occur. OPEC is to have further informal talks on September 27th. President Putin plans to discuss the matter with Prince bin Salman at the G20 summit in China this week as well,” reports OilPrice.com.

The International Energy Agency released its monthly oil market report on September 13, 2016. It reported that slowing crude oil demand, high global crude oil and product inventories, and rising crude oil production will extend the crude oil oversupply until 1H17.

The IEA also estimated that global crude oil inventories rose 32.5 MMbbls (million barrels) to 3,111 MMbbls in July 2016. This level is the highest on record.

OPEC released its Monthly Oil Market Report. It reported that rising production from non-OPEC producers and a less-than-expected decline in US crude oil production will lead to the extension of the oversupplied crude oil market.

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

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WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 September 16, 2016

Country Name Volatility Previous Cons
EUR Labour cost 2 1.7
USD Consumer Price Index Core 2 247.71
USD Consumer Price Index M 2 0 0.1
USD Consumer Price Index   M 2 240.65 240.65
USD Consumer Price Index CORE M 2 0.1 0.2
USD Consumer Price Index CORE Y 3 2.2 2.2
USD Consumer Price Index Y 3 0.8 1
USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment 3 89.8 91
USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count 2 414

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 15 10:30 Spain 0.75% Jul 2021 Bono, 1.3% Oct 2026 bond & 1.95% Jul 2030

Sep 15 10:50 France Eur 5-6bn 0% Feb 2019 & May 2021 OATs

Sep 15 11:03 Sweden Sek 0.5bn 0.125% Jun 2019 I/L & Sek 0.5bn 4% Dec 2020 I/L

Sep 15 11:50 France Eur 0.75-1.25bn 0.1% Mar 2021 & Mar 2025 OAT

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Holds OLO auction

Sep 20 11:30 UK Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

 

 

Gold Fundamental Forecast – September 16, 2016

Gold continued to trade in a tight range centering on the 1325 price level with little volatility and low volume as traders sit out waiting for the big action next week. At this writing gold is trading at 1324.60 down $1.50 for the session.  Gold prices slipped on Thursday after breaking a five-day losing streak in the previous session, as the dollar rose slightly and uncertain equity markets boosted the metal’s safe-haven appeal ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting next week.

Asian stocks wavered as investors grappled with the seemingly diminishing ability of major central banks to stimulate growth, while a tumble in crude oil prices added to the risk-aversion mood.

“While the market is predicting relatively low probability for September hike, they now seem to be more convinced that a December hike is highly probable,” said NAB analyst Vyanne Lai.

“The market has been characterized by high volatility than few weeks before… The general trend will be a downward one,’’ said Lai, adding that prices would be below $1,300 by the end of this year and reach $1,100 by the end of next year.

U.S. interest rate futures indicate that expectations of a rate increase next week remain low, but the dollar could benefit from anything in the Fed’s statement that hints at a hike before the end of the year.

Gold is highly sensitive to rising interest rates, which would lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

The dollar was up 0.2 percent against a basket of six major currencies and European stocks. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.

“The gold market is on the defensive. It has remained under pressure despite the clear and marked reduction in market expectations of a U.S. rate hike later this month,” HSBC said in a note.

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

gold

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 September 16, 2016

Country Name Volatility Previous Cons
EUR Labour cost 2 1.7
USD Consumer Price Index Core 2 247.71
USD Consumer Price Index M 2 0 0.1
USD Consumer Price Index   M 2 240.65 240.65
USD Consumer Price Index CORE M 2 0.1 0.2
USD Consumer Price Index CORE Y 3 2.2 2.2
USD Consumer Price Index Y 3 0.8 1
USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment 3 89.8 91
USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count 2 414

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 15 10:30 Spain 0.75% Jul 2021 Bono, 1.3% Oct 2026 bond & 1.95% Jul 2030

Sep 15 10:50 France Eur 5-6bn 0% Feb 2019 & May 2021 OATs

Sep 15 11:03 Sweden Sek 0.5bn 0.125% Jun 2019 I/L & Sek 0.5bn 4% Dec 2020 I/L

Sep 15 11:50 France Eur 0.75-1.25bn 0.1% Mar 2021 & Mar 2025 OAT

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Holds OLO auction

Sep 20 11:30 UK Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

 

 

S&P 500 Fundamental Forecast – September 16, 2016

The S&P 500 continued to ease as the greenback rebounds. The index is trading at 2125.77 as the FOMC meeting comes nearer as does a rate increase. Markets are now sure that the Fed will increase rates between now and December. U.S. import prices fell for the first time in six months in August on weak petroleum and food costs, but the declining trend is slowing as oil prices stabilize and the dollar’s rally fades.

Wall Street stocks declined as energy companies fell with the price of oil after three days of big, erratic moves. Apple led technology companies higher. Investors have sent stocks in different directions as they wonder if the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week, and they’re also speculating about the health of the global economy. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 31.98 points, or 0.2 percent, to 18,034. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index dipped 1.25 points, or 0.1 percent, to 2,125.77. The Nasdaq composite climbed 18.51 points, or 0.4 percent, to 5,173.77.

“Overnight markets diverged. Shares in Europe and the U.S. fell modestly. Although U.S. rates fell across the board, bond curves continued to steepen. This suggests markets are expecting no change to rates this month, inducing higher levels of inflation later,” Michael McCarthy of CMC Markets said in a report.

Apple rose for a second day after T-Mobile said it is getting strong preorders for new iPhones. Apple gets most of its revenue from the iPhone, and those sales, while still enormous, have finally started to decline in the last year. That’s hurt Apple stock, which traded above $130 a little more than a year ago. It rose 3.6 percent to $111.38.

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

sp-500-chart

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 September 16, 2016

Country Name Volatility Previous Cons
EUR Labour cost 2 1.7
USD Consumer Price Index Core 2 247.71
USD Consumer Price Index M 2 0 0.1
USD Consumer Price Index   M 2 240.65 240.65
USD Consumer Price Index CORE M 2 0.1 0.2
USD Consumer Price Index CORE Y 3 2.2 2.2
USD Consumer Price Index Y 3 0.8 1
USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment 3 89.8 91
USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count 2 414

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 15 10:30 Spain 0.75% Jul 2021 Bono, 1.3% Oct 2026 bond & 1.95% Jul 2030

Sep 15 10:50 France Eur 5-6bn 0% Feb 2019 & May 2021 OATs

Sep 15 11:03 Sweden Sek 0.5bn 0.125% Jun 2019 I/L & Sek 0.5bn 4% Dec 2020 I/L

Sep 15 11:50 France Eur 0.75-1.25bn 0.1% Mar 2021 & Mar 2025 OAT

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Holds OLO auction

Sep 20 11:30 UK Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

 

 

USD/CAD Fundamental Forecast – September 16, 2016

The USD/CAD is trading at 1.3197 as the Canadian dollar remains weak with low gold prices and oil prices well below their average trading range. The strength of the US dollar weighs on the weak Loonie after lackluster economics data over the past week. Benchmark U.S. crude gained 43 cents to $44.01 per barrel in trading the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract plunged $1.32 on Wednesday to finish at $43.58 a barrel in New York. Brent crude, used to price international oils, added 53 cents to $46.38 in London. It fell $1.25 the previous session to $45.85.

The Loonie has very little reasons to go bid. Recently, the Bank of Canada note that the risks for inflation had, “tilted somewhat to the downside.” The lower inflation expectations align with the weaker economic data coming from Canada and the potential for a re-emergence of policy divergence, and current account divergence from Canada from other developed economies.

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

usdcad

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 September 16, 2016

Country Name Volatility Previous Cons
EUR Labour cost 2 1.7
USD Consumer Price Index Core 2 247.71
USD Consumer Price Index M 2 0 0.1
USD Consumer Price Index   M 2 240.65 240.65
USD Consumer Price Index CORE M 2 0.1 0.2
USD Consumer Price Index CORE Y 3 2.2 2.2
USD Consumer Price Index Y 3 0.8 1
USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment 3 89.8 91
USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count 2 414

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 15 10:30 Spain 0.75% Jul 2021 Bono, 1.3% Oct 2026 bond & 1.95% Jul 2030

Sep 15 10:50 France Eur 5-6bn 0% Feb 2019 & May 2021 OATs

Sep 15 11:03 Sweden Sek 0.5bn 0.125% Jun 2019 I/L & Sek 0.5bn 4% Dec 2020 I/L

Sep 15 11:50 France Eur 0.75-1.25bn 0.1% Mar 2021 & Mar 2025 OAT

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Holds OLO auction

Sep 20 11:30 UK Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction