The S&P 500 has rallied a bit during the trading session now that we are beyond the CPI numbers in the United States. The number came out as hotter than anticipated, reading 5% year-over-year. However, the market still looks very bullish, and eventually we could see this market looking towards the 4400 level. In the short term, the occasional pullback could be a buying opportunity, with the 4200 level offering a significant amount of support as it was previous resistance.
S&P 500 Video 11.06.21
Underneath there, then the 50 day EMA comes into the picture near the 4132, which should also offer a significant amount of support based upon the fact that it has been psychological support multiple times. Regardless, we are in an uptrend so there is no reason to think that you should be a seller of this market, and even if we do break down from here it is very likely that the 4000 level underneath will be a massive “floor the market” as it is not only a large, round, psychologically significant figure but it is also an area where we see a bit of a gap that has a certain amount of support attached to it.
All things being equal, this is a market that would be a “buy on the dips” type of situation, as we could go looking towards the 4400 level eventually, but it is going to take a significant amount of time to get there. With that being the case, I think that what we have to look at here is whether or not there is some type of value that we can take advantage of as it dips.
Silver markets initially pulled back during the course of the trading session on Thursday, reaching down towards the $27.50 level before turning around to show signs of life again. By bouncing the way, we have, the market has ended up forming a bit of a hammer, which of course is a very bullish sign. Looking at this chart, it is obvious that the buyers are very aggressive on dips, and therefore I think it is almost impossible to short this market, as there is a lot of interest in this market as we have seen every time it drops. The 50 day EMA also offers plenty of support, so I think that we are getting close to some type of squeeze.
SILVER Video 11.06.21
Keep in mind that industrial demand for the metal will pick up due to industrial demand based upon what we are seen recently, so I think that we still continue to press higher, but we also recognize that the area between $28 and $30 has offered a lot of resistance as of late. With that in mind, I like the idea of buying short-term dips, but I would not look for much more than that considering that the markets have been so tight as of late.
If we were to break down below the 50 day EMA, then it is possible that we could drop down to the $26 level, but at that point there would also be the 200 day EMA, and of course the uptrend line from the ascending triangle. With that being said, this is a market that I think continues to see upward pressure overall.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has been back and forth during the course of the trading session on Thursday, breaking above the $70 level the second day in a row. If we can turn around on dips going forward, then I think we will gradually build a certain amount of momentum to go to the upside. To the downside, the top of the ascending triangle should continue to offer support, as it had been significant resistance. The $67.50 level underneath is an area that I will be paying close attention to. However, we break above the highs of the Thursday session then I anticipate that the market is probably going to go looking towards the $72.50 level.
Crude Oil Video 11.06.21
Brent markets have gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Thursday as well, as we continue to build up the momentum after the bigger breakout. The ascending triangle does suggest that we are going to go higher, and as a matter fact, the measured move is a suggestion of an attempt at $80. All things been equal, I have no interest in shorting this market and I do think that there is a significant “floor the market” underneath. The 50 day EMA has been snaking right along the uptrend line for some time, so I think that continues to support this market as well. Ultimately, buying on the dips should continue to offer plenty of opportunity as inflation and reopening trade scenarios both push this market to the upside over the longer term.
The natural gas markets have rallied again during the course of the trading session on Thursday, gapping higher to kick off the trading day. That being said, the $3.20 level above continues offer resistance that extends to the $3.30 level. At this point, this is a market that I think will continue to struggle a bit but given enough time I fully anticipate that we will have to come up with a bigger catalyst to finally break out or break down.
NATGAS Video 11.06.21
To the downside, I anticipate that the $3.00 level should be a significant amount of support, based upon psychology if nothing else. However, the 50 day EMA is sitting at the $2.93 level, and it will attract a certain amount of attention as well. Underneath there, the $2.90 level would be the next support level. If we break below there, then we will fall apart. At this point, I have to wonder whether or not we are trying to form some type of “double top” in this general vicinity?
Having said, if we do break out to the upside then it is possible that we could go looking towards the $3.30 level, where we have seen significant selling in the past as well. Quite frankly, I do not have any interest in buying natural gas if for no other reason than if I am going to buy commodities, I would buy something that has a little bit more in the way of fundamental help, perhaps the crude oil markets. I think this is a market that will eventually break lower and could be the first sign of a commodities market rolling over in general.
Gold markets have initially fallen during the trading session on Thursday but then turned around as the CPI figures in the United States came out at 5% annually. Whether or not that actually sticks is a completely different question but at the end of the day it looks like gold continues to find buyers.
Gold Price Predictions Video 11.06.21
This does not necessarily mean that gold is suddenly going to take off for a bigger move, but it is worth paying attention to the $1920 level as the market breaking above there would of course be a very bullish sign and could see money following in order to chase the momentum. To the downside, I still believe that the $1850 level is an area worth paying attention to, as it has shown itself to be rather resilient and also has the backing of the 50 day EMA which is quickly approaching. Underneath there, then you have the previous downtrend line and the 200 day EMA. All things being equal, I do think that will be a very difficult area to break down through, so a bounce from there makes quite a bit of sense if we do get that type of selling pressure.
On the other hand, if we do break out to the upside then I think we go looking towards the $1950 level, possibly the $2100 level over the longer term. I think that this is a market that will continue to be very choppy, and I fully anticipate that the most important thing you can do, and trading gold right now is to pay attention to your position size, as you do not want to get too over levered.
The US dollar has gone back and forth against the Japanese yen, as we continue to see strength in general. That being the case, the market is likely to continue the overall up trending channel, as we have been chopping to the upside for a little bit now. With that being the case, I think we are going to go looking towards the ¥110 level, followed by the ¥110.50 level, and then the ¥111 level. Furthermore, the 50 day EMA underneath should also offer support as it has, almost acting like a bit of a trendline for this channel.
USD/JPY Video 11.06.21
Keep in mind that this pair does tend to move right along with interest rate differential between the two countries and of course risk appetite around the world. The Japanese yen is considered to be a major “safety currency”, so therefore it gets sold off in times of “risk on attitudes.” Obviously, the exact opposite is true, so if there is a lot of concern out there, then this pair does tend to roll over and go looking towards the downside. At this point, I look at the “bottom of the trend” at the ¥107.50 level where we have bounced from, and of course we have the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
With that being said, I do think that it is more likely that we continue to see a “buy on the dip” attitude going forward, as the markets continue to see reasons to celebrate and by assets, perhaps in the simple fear of inflation eroding well. Ultimately, this is a market that I think is one that will simply continue the same action for the rest of the summer.
The British pound has initially pulled back during the trading session on Thursday as we continue to see a lot of buying pressure underneath. Ultimately, the 50 day EMA comes into the picture as well, showing signs of stability and support. The market has been picking away at the 1.42 level above, an area that is significant resistance. If we can clear that area and the highs of last week, then it is very likely that we could continue to go much higher, perhaps reaching towards the 1.45 handle.
GBP/USD Video 11.06.21
On the other hand, if we break down below the lows of the trading session on Thursday then it is possible that we could go as low as 1.40 handle, which is an area that of course will attract a lot of attention from a psychological standpoint in that area where we have seen a lot of resistance in the past, so it all comes together with “market memory.” We are in an uptrend, and that is the most important thing to pay attention to.
Because of this, I think that there are plenty of people looking to get involved every time it dips based upon value and of course the fact that the trend has been so reliable. Quite frankly, I think we are to simply trying to find some type of a catalyst to take off to the upside. We have not really have it yet, but it is worth noting that we have not bothered to sell off either. All things been equal, this is a scenario that will probably put people to sleep for the most part, but at the end of the day is still bullish.
The British pound initially fell during trading on Thursday but turned around to show signs of resiliency as we have recaptured the ¥155 level. That of course is a good sign, and it does suggest that we are going to continue the overall uptrend, allowing this market to perhaps go looking towards the ¥157.50 level, and then after that potentially even as high as the ¥160 level.
GBP/JPY Video 11.06.21
To the downside, I believe that the ¥153.50 level should offer support, as we continue to see the overall uptrend continue, and therefore push this market much higher. All things been equal, I do not have any interest in shorting this market as it is so strong, and we of course are in an uptrend. This does not necessarily mean that we go straight up in the air forever, but it does suggest that the buyers continue to be very strong, so therefore it is worth paying close attention to it. With this being the case, it looks like it is “risk on” in general, and therefore I think what we have got here is a “buy on the dips” type of situation as well as a “buy-and-hold” situation.
Keep in mind that the pair is sensitive to risk appetite, so pay close attention to other markets as well, because as they arise in value, that typically will help this pair in general. After that, you also have to keep an eye on the British reopening which seems to be ready to go, sending the value of the British pair higher in general. Longer-term, we probably have quite a while before the trend changes.
The Euro initially rallied during the trading session on Thursday as we continue to see a lot of noisy trading in this market. That being said, the 50 day EMA underneath is more than likely going to offer support again, as this pair is certainly in an uptrend. However, that does not necessarily mean that it is going to be easy to break out to the upside. In fact, I think what we have here is a scenario where we simply chop back and forth, but that is essentially with the Euro tends to do. With this being the case, the market is likely to continue to say stuck in this overall range, as the 1.20 level underneath offers plenty of support, and therefore I think that is essentially where the “floor the market” currently resides.
EUR/USD Video 11.06.21
Looking at this chart, the 1.23 level is crucial resistance, and I think will be difficult to break above. If we can break above there, then it is likely that we could see this market go looking towards 1.25 handle which is my longer-term target going forward. I believe that it is only a matter of time before we reach towards that area, but I think that is probably a scenario that we will see in late summer, perhaps early fall. Between now and then, I think it still remains a little bit of a short-term “buy on the dips” type of market, so if you trade shorter-term charts then you start looking for supportive places like 1.21, the 50 day EMA, etc. I have no interest in shorting this market until we get well below the 1.20 handle.
The Australian dollar has done very little during the trading session, but it has held the 50 day EMA as support. Ultimately, we are still very much in a range, but now that the Consumer Price Index has been at least in the United States, traders are starting to focus on the longer-term outlook again. If that is going to be the case, then it makes quite a bit of sense that this pair probably creeps to the upside, perhaps towards the 0.7850 level. That being said, I do not necessarily think that it is going to be easy for massive gains to be the outcome. However, it certainly looks as if there is quite a bit of buying pressure underneath. With that in mind, buying short-term dips may continue to work out quite well.
AUD/USD Video 11.06.21
To the downside, even if we do break down a little bit it is very likely that we will continue to see support near the 0.7650 level, possibly even the 0.76 handle. With that being the case, I think that if we do pull back there will be plenty of buyers looking for “value” down there, but I would not look for some type of major breakout in the short term. If we did break down below the 0.75 handle, that could in the entire uptrend, but I just do not see an argument for that right now as inflation seems to be taking hold, and that could continue to push the price of commodities higher, helping the Australian dollar in general.
The S&P 500 has been very quiet during the trading session on Wednesday as we continue to wait for CPI figures on Thursday. At this point, there are a lot of concerns about inflation, but more importantly we need to pay attention to the overall momentum which seems to be slowing a bit. Whether or not we have a move after the Thursday announcement will be very telling as to whether we are going higher anytime soon.
S&P 500 Video 10.06.21
If we could break above the recent all-time highs, then the market is likely to go looking towards the 4400 level, as the market does tend to move in 200 point increments. With that in mind, I do think that eventually we get that move to the upside that helps this market continue to climb longer-term. On the other hand, if we were to drift lower, I think that the 50 day EMA underneath could be massive support. After that, then we could be looking at the 4000 level which the gap right along with the idea of the psychology of the 4000 level being important. Underneath there, then the uptrend line comes into play with the 200 day EMA.
I would not be a seller of this market regardless, but I would perhaps look into the idea of buying puts at that point, simply because the Federal Reserve is very quickly going to jump into the markets and flood it with liquidity if there is some type of issue. While they do not suggest that asset prices have anything to do with what they do, but the reality has been much more different over the last 13 years.
Silver markets have rallied just a bit during the course of the trading session on Wednesday as we continue to see the $28 level offer a difficult amount of resistance overcome. I think that the resistance extends all the way to the $30 level, which makes for a very difficult barrier to break through. That being said, if we were to break above the $30 level, then the market could continue to go much higher, perhaps reaching all the way to the $50 level based upon historical precedence. When you look at the overall outlook, silver should continue to see demand based upon industrial usage, but it is worth noting that we have sat still for a couple of weeks now.
SILVER Video 10.06.21
The Thursday session features the CPI figures, and that of course will more than likely come into focus based upon the idea of whether or not inflation is picking up. If it is, that will be yet another reason to think that the silver markets will continue to see upward pressure. I also believe that the 50 day EMA is tilting higher, and therefore it is likely to be somewhat supportive. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of buyers on dips, as we have seen such a significant amount of bullish pressure.
The $26 level underneath should continue to be significant support, and that of course the 200 day EMA is starting to reach towards that area as well, so I think that is essentially going to be your “floor the market.” All things been equal, this is noisy but bullish trading.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has rallied significantly during the course of the trading session on Wednesday as we have broken above the $70 level. That of course is a very bullish sign and I think it is only a matter of time before we go to the upside. With this being the case, I think it is only a matter of time before we would see a continuation of the move to the upside. With this, I am looking to buy dips, especially if we drop down towards the $67.50 level. If we were to break down below the $67.50 level, then we could take a look at the 50 day EMA underneath, which is basically supporting the $65 level. Nonetheless, we are in an uptrend and that has without a doubt the most weighting to this market.
Crude Oil Video 10.06.21
Brent markets also have broken above the $72.50 level during the trading session, as the market has shown bullish pressure more than once. That being said, I like the idea of getting long of this market on short-term dips, as the $70 level should continue to be rather supportive. After all, it was the top of the ascending triangle, and of course a large, round, psychologically significant figure. With that being the case, I think that the market is probably going to go looking towards the $75 level over the longer term. If we can break above there, then I think we go looking to fulfill the “measured move” of the ascending triangle, which would have this market looking towards the $80 level. The 50 day EMA underneath continues offer plenty of support
Natural gas markets have rallied a bit during the course of the trading session on Wednesday as we continue to see natural gas pressed the top of the overall range of trading. At this point time, it looks as if the $3.20 level will continue to be very difficult to overcome, but even if we do there is resistance after that. All things being equal, the natural gas markets will probably have a bit of a boost due to the knock on effect from the commodity boom, but whether or not natural gas demand actually picks up might be a different situation altogether.
NATGAS Video 10.06.21
We are approaching a cyclically negative time of year, and therefore it is possible that we could see the area just above causing issues, and therefore I think it is only a matter of time before we see selling pressure come back in. If we can break down below the 50 day EMA, then it opens up the possibility of a move to reach down towards the gap underneath that has yet to be filled, near the $2.70 level. Furthermore, the 200 day EMA is starting to bank that area as well.
With that being the case, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of choppy and erratic behavior, but at the end of the day, I am much more comfortable shorting this market due to the cyclical trade in the fact that it is oversupplied. In fact, I believe that if we get some type of blast when it comes to the commodity trade, this will be the first market that shows signs of weakness.
Gold markets have gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Wednesday as we are hanging about the $1900 level. The $1900 level has caused a lot of noise, and as a result of it being a large, round, psychologically significant figure, it is also an area where a lot of people would be hanging about in order to figure out where we go next.
Gold Price Predictions Video 10.06.21
When you look at the longer-term chart, the 50 day EMA is reaching towards the $1850 level, which I believe is your short-term floor. However, with the CPI figures coming out on Thursday, it is very likely that we will see massive movement at one point or another. Most traders are anticipating a lot of inflation out there, so it does make a certain amount of sense that the gold markets have gotten a bit of a bid. However, if CPI ends up being much cooler than anticipated, that could be the reason to send this market much lower.
To the upside, if we can break out from the highs of the previous week, that allows this market to go looking towards the $1950 level, possibly even as high as $2100 over the longer term. That being said, it is going to take a significant amount of time to get up there, and therefore you should have plenty of opportunities to buy on the dips if we do break out so I would not try to anticipate the move, because we do not know with the announcement will be, and it could change the entire attitude of this market. With this being the case though, I do prefer to buy this market when given a chance.
The US dollar has pulled back ever so slightly during the trading session on Wednesday but as you can see there is support underneath that could come into play rather quickly, in the form of the ¥109 level. Furthermore, we also have the uptrend line from the channel that we have been in for a while, and then of course the 50 day EMA after that. With all that being said, it is very likely that there should be buyers jumping in to push this even higher. However, keep in mind that the market is highly sensitive to the risk appetite in general, as the pair does tend to move higher and lower right along with it.
USD/JPY Video 10.06.21
If we break down below the 50 day EMA, then it is likely that we could go down to the ¥108 level, which is where the 30.2% Fibonacci retracement level sits and of course the bounce that recently happened. By the time we get down there, it is very likely that we could see the 200 day EMA come into the picture as well, so I believe in the short term that is essentially the “major floor” in the market.
To the upside, the ¥111 level is a ceiling that people should be paying close attention to and therefore it should be a bit of a target. That being said, it is not very likely that this is an easy move and therefore it is likely that we would see a lot of choppy behavior but with an upward tilt more than anything else.
The British pound has rallied again during the trading session on Wednesday as we continue to see the 1.42 level offer a significant amount of resistance. That is an area where we have seen the market try to break above there but then pulled back multiple times, as we are building up the inertia to go higher. The highs from the previous week being broken allows the market to go looking towards 1.45 handle. That is an area that I believe would be a significant round figure that a lot of people would pay close attention to.
GBP/USD Video 10.06.21
When you look at the chart, you can see that the 50 day EMA has been rising for a while, and therefore it should continue to be somewhat supportive as well, as the 50 day EMA is a technical indicator that a lot of people will pay attention to. That being said, I do not have any interest in shorting, and I do believe that the 1.41 handle is support, just as the 1.40 level is. That being said, I think that a lot of value hunters would come into the picture at that point.
The British pound continues to get a bit of a push higher due to the fact that the UK economy is opening up, and of course United States seems hell-bent on spending as much money as possible through various types of stimulus. As long that is going to be the case and yields in America continue to drift a little bit lower, it is likely that we continue to see the upward momentum chip away at resistance.
The British pound has initially rallied against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Wednesday, to break above the ¥155 level. However, we have pulled back from there just a bit to show just how choppy this market is going to continue to be. At this point time, I think that we are still very much in an uptrend so we have to keep that in mind, but at the end of the day it looks like we may get a bit of noisy trading in order to build up the necessary momentum.
GBP/JPY Video 10.06.21
Another thing to pay attention to is the GBP/USD pair, as it continues to struggle with the 1.42 handle. The 1.42 handle is a major barrier for the British pound that needs to be conquered in order to push the British pound up against everything else. After all, the way to measure a currency’s strength overall is how it is doing against the greenback. Nonetheless, it certainly looks as if we are trying to get to the upside.
Underneath, the ¥153.50 level should also offer support as we have seen a big move to the upside from that level. I believe this continues to be a “buy on the dips” type of scenario as we are clearly trying to break out to the upside and continue the longer-term uptrend. That being said, keep your position size reasonable when waiting for your next move higher. If we do break higher, then the ¥157.50 level is the initial target, followed by the ¥160 level. I have no interest in shorting this market anytime soon, as it is very obviously bullish.
The Euro has rallied a bit during the course of the trading session on Wednesday, as we continue to see plenty of bullish pressure. Remember, the Euro is essentially the “anti-dollar”, so when you look at the Euro, you need to think of this in terms of how the US dollar is behaving. The US dollar has fallen off a bit during the past couple of weeks, and we continue to see the Euro benefit from this. Furthermore, the yield differential has narrowed a bit between the bond markets of Germany and the United States, so that continues to see another catalyst for this market to go higher.
EUR/USD Video 10.06.21
If we can break above the 1.23 handle, then it is likely that the 1.25 level will be the next target. All things been equal, we are in an uptrend so that is the thing that you should pay the most attention to, and pullbacks at this point in time should offer buying opportunities that you can take advantage of based upon “value.” Underneath, the 1.20 level is a massive support level that should be paid close attention to as well, so I consider that to be the “floor the market.”
It is not until we break down below the 1.20 level that I would consider shorting this market from any larger amount of conviction or position size, so at this point in time I think what we are looking at is a market that is trying to finally pick up enough momentum to break out to the upside and reach towards the 1.25 handle sometime later this year.
The Australian dollar has rallied a bit during the course of the trading session on Wednesday, but stayed within the tight consolidation area that we have been in. The 50 day EMA is essentially a magnet for price, and at this point unless you are a short-term scalper, it is going to be difficult to trade the Aussie dollar. As you can see, the market has seen a lot of selling pressure just above the 0.78 handle, just as the market has seen support just below the 0.77 handle.
AUD/USD Video 10.06.21
Looking at this chart and this market in general, I think what we need is some type of catalyst. Whether or not we get it might be a different question, but at this point in time it is likely that the CPI numbers on Thursday will be the most important figure for the week, as it could give us a sign of what inflation is actually doing in the United States.
That being said, what we should keep in mind is that the commodity market has been booming while the Australian dollar has done almost nothing over the last several months. This might be because the Chinese and the Australians are in a bit of a trade spat, but at the end of the day the Chinese will more than likely come back to Australia for coal as an example, as China is in desperate need of raw materials. At this point time, it has become a bit of a game of “chicken.”
Until we get some type of clarity, I suspect that this is going to be a tough market to get overly large and, but if you are comfortable with the five and 15 minute charts, this might be an acceptable market.