EUR/CHF Technical Analysis July 22, 2011

EUR/CHF slammed into the 1.18 level on Thursday as trader sold the Franc and bought the Euro across the board because of suggestions that the Europeans were coming to an agreement to stem the risk of contagion in the debt markets. However, the level has held, and the 1.18 – 1.20 levels are expected to be heavy. The other risk to this rally is that the agreement in Europe hasn’t been announced in its particulars as of this writing, and if it is something the markets don’t like – this thing falls quick. We still like selling, but need to see a bearish candle first.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis July 22, 2011

We have been saying the 1.08 level had to give way in order for the market to continue the move upwards in the Aussie. That day has come, and now we are looking for pullbacks, preferably to 1.08, from which to buy. We look to the shorter-term charts for this signal as it is highly unlikely that the daily chart will slow down enough to give us a signal.

USD/CAD Daily Fundamental Analysis for July 22, 2011

The USD/CAD pair extended its drop on Thursday, as traders continued to target higher yielding assets amid the rising optimism across global markets, where strong earnings from the United States continued to support gains in stock markets, while data from the United States came out better than expectations, and a draft released by Reuters signaled EU leaders are planning an expanded measure to help debt-laden nations in the Euro Zone area, which supported overall confidence and pushed higher yielding assets including the Canadian dollar to rise against the U.S. dollar, which pressured the USD/CAD pair to drop.

Rising crude oil prices also contributed in the CAD’s gains, where crude oil prices approached the $100 barrier amid the rising optimism in markets, which provided the CAD with more momentum to rise against the USD.

Rising optimism in markets has been the main reason behind the CAD’s gains over the past few days, while investors on Friday will be focused on Canadian inflation, as the CPI will be released for June, where expectations show that core inflation continued to ease, which supports the Bank of Canada’s concerns and could confirm that the BOC will raise interest rates at least once before the end of this year, and that should preserve the bullish momentum for CAD, and accordingly, the USD/CAD pair could still drop further.

Friday July 22:

At 11:00 GMT, Canada will release the consumer price index for June, where CPI is expected to drop by 0.2% compared with the prior rise of 0.7% as energy prices fell in June, while compared with a year earlier, CPI is expected to ease to 3.5% from 3.7%. Core CPI is expected to rise by 0.1% compared with 0.5% in May, while compared with a year earlier, Core CPI is expected to rise to 2.0% from 1.8% in the prior estimate.

At 12:30 GMT, Canada will release the retail sales index for May, where the index is expected to drop by 0.3% compared with a rise of 0.3% in April, while retail sales less autos are expected to rise by 0.4% in May after coming flat in April.

Forex News – Optimism Spread Through European and U.S. Financial Markets

Optimism spread through European and U.S. financial markets on Thursday after strong earnings boosted confidence in stock markets, while a draft released by Reuters signaled EU leaders will undertake an expanded measure to help debt-laden nations in the Euro Zone including Greece, Portugal, and Ireland, and economic data from the United States came in better than expectations, which further supported confidence among traders.

A number of U.S. corporations announced their financial results for the second fiscal quarter of this year, where most companies continued to report better than expected earnings, where the earnings season so far is proving to be a strong one, since most companies were able to withstand the economic slowdown during the second quarter of this year.

The jobless claims rose last week to 418,000 according to a report from the U.S. Labor Department, above expectations of 410,000. While the leading indicators index rose in June by 0.3%, above expectations of 0.2% and down from 0.8% in the prior month, and the Philadelphia Fed index rose to 3.2 in July, also above expectations of 2.0 and rising from -7.7 reported back in June.

Stocks in the United States rose by opening on Thursday, where the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up by nearly 1.20% to trade around 12,725, while the S&P 500 index was up by nearly 1.35% to trade around 1343. European stock indexes were also higher before closing on Thursday, where FTSE 100 was up by nearly 1.10% to trade at 5918 and the DAX was higher by nearly 1.35% to trade around 7318.

The U.S. dollar declined against a basket of major currencies on Thursday, where the U.S. dollar index was trading at 74.29, compared with the opening level at 74.69. The Euro rose sharply against the Dollar, where the EUR/USD pair traded at $1.4380, compared with the opening level at $1.4259, and the British Pound also gained strongly against the Dollar, where the GBP/USD pair traded around $1.6283, compared with the opening level at $1.6165.

Gold prices were little changed on Thursday, where gold was trading around the opening level at $1598 an ounce, and crude oil prices also rose to trade just below $100 a barrel.

EUR/USD Daily Fundamental Analysis for July 22, 2011

The volatility was evident on Thursday for the EUR/USD with all eyes focused on the euro area leaders with the start of the emergency Brussels summit, yet with the flow of the news and possible agreement on Greece and for the euro area stability the market started to turn positive and the euro moved to the upside.

The euro started to move to the upside after Reuters released a draft of the summit decision which included some expansion of the EFSF role that was strong to ensure stability and sources suggested Greece will find aid and the ECB is to accept temporary default under the new bailout as the nation gets assistance.

Friday will all be about the final decision and the actual communiqué from the summit, the draft suggested the expansion of the EFSF to help nations precautionary and not under EU/IMF assistance, it also suggested the recapitalization of banks under loans to governments and also allowing intervention into the bond mark with will surely allow the ECB to access the secondary market and means to ease the Greek debt burden which is why the news suggested the ECB is accepting the status of default as far as Greece is on bond buybacks program.

The range also expands to extending the maturity on the rescue loans to 15 years from 7.5 at this time and lowering the interest to 3.5% from current levels between 4.5% and 5.8%.

Final details of the new EFSF role and the next step for Greece whether default or no default will be the focus for Friday. So far the market is reacting positively to the expectations for strong decisions which is surely good as investors lost hope for strong action from the leaders, this will likely keep the euro biased to the upside though volatility and downside pressure will be seen with the market assessing the effect of Greek default on banks and the market in general.

News on Friday are also light which will keep the focus on the summit resolution and also the progress over the debt ceiling debate in the U.S. with the lack of fundamentals from the United States.

Germany will end the week as it started it with more confidence figures with the IFO Survey at 08:00 GMT. The Business Climate index is expected to fall to 113.6 from 114.5, while the Current Assessment is expected to fall to 122.2 from 123.3 and the Expectations Index is expected at 105.0 from 106.3.

The euro area will release the Industrial New Orders for May at 09:00 GMT and expected with 1.0% rise on the month following 0.7% to an annual 10.3% following 8.6%.

GBP/USD Daily Fundamental Analysis for July 22, 2011

On Thursday, the pound showed advance against the dollar after the release of upbeat data from theUK. Public sector net borrowing excluding interventions showed that the deficit has narrowed to 14.0 billion pounds in June from the revised deficit of 16.6 billion pounds deficit, while retail sales with auto fuel advanced 0.7% in June from the revised 1.3% drop.

On the other hand, the dollar showed weakness, especially after the release data showing that initial jobless claims rose to 418,000 in the week ended July 16 from 408,000 a week before.

Finally, the week ends with the release of no data from both economies which suggest that the pair will follow the general sentiment in market. The main focus this week is on the European summit as investors are eager to know whether European leaders will be able to consent a second bailout forGreeceto avoid default. In the case of passing a second bailout, the pound might continue its rise against the dollar as risk appetite will increase and the opposite is true.

USD/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for July 22, 2011

On Thursday trading, the dollar slipped sharply against a basket of major currencies including the Swiss franc, yet the decline against the franc was minimal as the franc was adversely affected by downbeat trade data.

The dollar continued its drop after the release of data showing that initial jobless claims rose to 418,000 in the week ended July 16 from 408,000 a week before. The Franc, on the other hand, fell earlier on Thursday versus the greenback after a report showing that trade surplus narrowed to 1.74 billion francs in June compared with the prior surplus of 3.25 billion francs. Johann Schneider-Ammann, the Swiss Economy Minister, said the franc’s appreciation against the euro is “alarming.” Thus, an intervention by the SNB may be expected if the franc strengthened further.

Moreover, the week ends with the release of no data from both economies which suggest that the pair will follow the general sentiment in market. The main focus this week is on the European Summit as eyes are on the action of European leaders to see whether they are able to launch a seco

USD/JPY Daily Fundamental Analysis for July 22, 2011

The USD/JPY pair retreated early Thursday to reach its lowest level in five days, as the Japanese yen was boosted from the trade data, which increased signs of recovery in the third largest economy in the world.

The Japanese merchandise trade balance for June showed a surplus of 70.7 billion yen from the previous deficit of 855.8 billion yen, while exports improved to – 1.6% from the previous drop of 10.3%.

Most of improvement came due to an increase in exports to the U.S. and the European Union which supported the Japanese yen against its major counterparts and enhanced the market sentiment.

Furthermore, the USD/JPY pair has been trading in a dangerous area, where investors are worried from another intervention from the BOJ in the currency market to prevent the yen from further strength against the dollar.

Market participants are waiting for the final decision from the EU leaders, whether they will provide more aid forGreeceor not, and according to their decision market sentiment will control the foreign exchange market.

Both countries won’t release any fundamentals on Friday leaving the movement on the back of the prevailing sentiment and aftermath of the Brussels summit.

NZD/USD Daily Fundamental Analysis for July 22, 2011

The New Zealand dollar moved lower versus the American dollar on negative Chinese manufacturing PMI in the second quarter, which is bearish on kiwi since China is the biggest importer from New Zealand and slowing growth affects the recovery in the nation.

At the meantime, New Zealand’s consumer confidence rose to a five-month high in June, adding to signs of a recovery in regions outside earthquake-damaged Christchurch.

We expect that the New Zealand dollar is to advance as stocks gained, bolstered by demand for commodity currencies as the jitters slightly start to unwind over the global recovery with easing debt woes in Europe and the United States.

On Friday, the New Zealand economy and the US economy are not going to release any fundamentals which leaving the movement on the back of the prevailing sentiment.

AUD/USD Daily Fundamental Analysis for July 22, 2011

The Australian dollar (Aussie) is a very sensitive for the Chinese fundamentals, where the currency declined against the dollar after the Chinese economy released the manufacturing PMI for the month of July that continued to decline to reach to 48.9 from 50.1.

On the other hand, Australian economy has released negative data regarding the business confidence which slumped to 6 during the 2nd quarter from 11 in the first quarter, damping the demand for the Australian dollar.

We can see the Australian economy is still in a foggy phase with the negative data released by the nation along with European debt crisis jitters, which damping the demand for higher yielding currencies.

Thursday and Friday are about heavy fluctuations as all eyes on the European Finance Ministers meeting, so it is working to restore the investors’ confidence once again to increase their investments.

On Friday at 01:30 GMT, the Australian economy will release the Import price index for the second quarter, where it’s expected to show a drop of 1.1% from the previous rise of 1.4%.

On the other hand, the Export price index for the Second quarter will be released at 01:30 GMT, with a prior reading of 5.2% and it’s expected to come at 5.0%.

AUD/NZD Daily Fundamental Analysis for July 22, 2011

The AUD/NZD pair dropped early Thursday to trade around its lowest level in eleven months, theNew Zealanddollar was able to keep its gains against the greenback due to the cheerful outlook for theNew Zealandeconomy, which enabled the Kiwi to dominate the AUD/NZD pair’s movement.

On the other hand, the Australian economy released negative data regarding the business confidence which slumped to 6 during the 2nd quarter from 11 in the first quarter, damping demand for the Australian dollar.

At the meantime, New Zealand’s consumer confidence rose to a five-month high in June, adding to signs of a recovery in regions outside earthquake-damaged Christchurch.

On Friday at 01:30 GMT, the Australian economy will release the Import price index for the second quarter, where it’s expected to show a drop of 1.1% from the previous rise of 1.4%.

On the other hand, the Export price index for the Second quarter will be released at 01:30 GMT, with a prior reading of 5.2% and it’s expected to come at 5.0%.

Eyes on the E.U. Summit

Broad markets are doing their best to hold to yesterday’s gains, yet this task seams difficult ahead of an emergency summit for E.U. leaders and data fromChinasignaling that the manufacturing sector contracted further in July.

Markets hope that the E.U. leaders will be able to make progress in resolving the Greek debt crisis. Meanwhile news emerged thatFranceandGermanyreached an agreement overGreece’s debt crisis, spreading some optimism earlier today.

As investors will remain focused on the European debt crisis and worry from a possible contagion, especially toItalyandSpain, caution will persist, and the Forex market will continue to be swift the next two days.

Chinasaw contraction in July’s factory orders, indicating thatChina’s tightening measures to cool inflation may have started to put pressures on growth. This spread fears among the Asian investors, and demand for the safe heaven yen increased.

Adding to the downside pressures on sentiment was today’s disappointing PMI reports fromGermanyandFrance, and a worst than expected current account report fromEurope. The euro is trading with a downside bias around 1.4180.

The pound fell today although the retail sales witnessed a slight improvement in June, yet the public sector net borrowing was disappointing, while the storm in the nearby European continent is weighing on overall sentiment.

As the level of uncertainty remains unusually high, markets will be trading within limited ranges. Gold managed to climb back above the $1600.00 per ounce level as demand on safe heaven continues.

Meanwhile oil fell below the $97.50 level as the global economic outlook remains unclear. The U.S. will release later in the day the weekly jobless claims and the Philly manufacturing index, yet the attention will continue to be on politicians who are trying to reach a deal to raise the debt ceiling.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis July 21, 2011

USD/JPY fell on Wednesday, testing the recent lows yet again and the 78.50 zone. The market isn’t falling rapidly, which shouldn’t be a surprise as the central banks are all watching this pair at these low levels. Since at least 5 of them got involved in the intervention, one thinks there is still the potential for them to step in again as we go lower. We like buying, but simply do not have a signal to work from.


USD/CHF Technical Analysis July 21, 2011

The USD/CHF fell on Wednesday, reversing much of the gains in this market that came on Tuesday. The pair is most certainly in a bear market, and we feel that only selling can be done. We like the idea of selling any and all rallies, as that strategy has worked for several years. Expect some bit of support around this area, (0.82) which could prove to be minor support.


USD/CAD Technical Analysis July 21, 2011

The USD/CAD pair fell again on Wednesday, and even tested the recent lows at 0.9450, and area that if broken would lead the way to a massive drop to 0.9050 and below. The pair is overwhelmingly bearish, and we like selling rallies, as well as a daily close below the 0.9450 mark. We do not buy this pair under any circumstances at this point.


NZD/USD Technical Analysis July 21, 2011

NZD/USD continues to stay afloat at lofty levels on Wednesday, as traders simply keep pushing the pair north. The fact that is has cleared the 0.85 level and has stayed above it suggests that we are looking at higher prices in the near future. The next major psychological number is 0.90, and there is no sign of us not reaching it at the moment. We buy this pair on dips, and don’t sell.


GBP/USD Technical Analysis July 21, 2011

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The GBP/USD pair rose again on Wednesday, testing the recent highs again in the 1.6150-1.62 area. The pair is getting support, but let us not forget that the pair made new lows recently, and as such – it appears that this pair is on the weak side, and we may just be getting a bit of a relief rally at the moment. Rallies are to be sold on weakness, but at higher levels such as the 1.65 level.

 

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis July 21, 2011

The EUR/USD pair rose again on Wednesday, keeping up the pressure on the US dollar. The pair is going to be very sensitive to the scheduled meeting today in Europe about the attempt to come up with a plan to contain any debt crisis in the EU. The pair is more than likely going to be very difficult over the next 24 hours, as the response could be swift. From a longer point of view, we like selling rallies and a break below 1.38 would signal a long-term short for us.


EUR/CHF Technical Analysis July 21, 2011

The EUR/CHF pair fell on Wednesday, but regained much of its losses later in the session. The pair is most certainly bearish, but the last couple of days have been quite the opposite. The truth is that these rallies are dangerous to buy into as the slightest piece of news will continue the trend. The rally is more than likely heading to the 1.18 to 1.20 zone – an area that should provide a lot of resistance, which is exactly where we like to sell on weakness.


AUD/USD Technical Analysis July 21, 2011

AUD/USD continued to sit just under the 1.08 level on Wednesday, showing how buoyant this pair really is. The fact that it is comfortable just under this level suggests that it is more than likely going to go higher. The all-time highs around the 1.10 area are targeted on a clean break of the 1.08 level. We don’t sell, but we do like buying on dips down to 1.05.