Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Mixed Gasoline Inventory Numbers Fueling Trader Indecision

U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures are edging lower on Thursday as bullish traders take a breather following the release of mixed inventories reports on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Today’s move doesn’t suggest topping action, but rather the potential shifting in sentiment from aggressive traders chasing prices higher to more conservative traders looking for a pullback into a value area.

At 13:56 GMT, June WTI crude oil futures are trading $65.09, down $0.54 or -0.82% and July Brent crude oil is at $68.51, down $0.45 or -0.65%.

Earlier in the week, traders expressed concerns over the pandemic in India and its potential impact on global demand, however, since then these worries have been offset by optimism fueled by the lifting of lockdowns in the United States and parts of Europe.

American Petroleum Institute Weekly Inventories Report

The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported late Tuesday that U.S. crude supplies fell by 7.7 million barrels for the week ended April 30. Ahead of the report, traders were pricing in at 3.9 million barrel draw.

The API also reported that gasoline stockpiles fell by 5.3 million barrels versus pre-report estimates of a 500,000 barrel drawdown.

Meanwhile, distillate inventories declined by nearly 3.5 million barrels. Traders were looking for a 1.6 million barrel drawdown.

Energy Information Administration Weekly Inventories Report

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude inventories fell by 8 million barrels in the week to April 30 to 485.1 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.3 million-barrel drop.

U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 737,000 barrels in the week to 235.8 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 652,000-barrel drop.

Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 2.9 million barrels in the week to 136.2 million barrels, versus expectations for a 1.1 million-barrel drop, the EIA data showed.

Daily Forecast

The mixed inventories reports may have given buyers a reason to pause. Both the API and EIA reports drawdowns in crude oil and distillate inventories, but the gasoline inventories data yielded mixed results. The API reported a large drawdown, but the EIA report showed an unexpected rise in inventories.

As we approach summer driving season in the U.S., traders will shift their focus to the gasoline numbers. It’s still a little early in the season so the gasoline data wasn’t that big of a deal. However, between May 31 and September 5, bullish traders will be expecting to see stronger demand for gasoline.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Underpinned by Dovish Fed Member Comments, Capped by Strong Data

Gold futures are trading higher on Thursday, but pulling back from its high after the release of a better-than-expected government report. Earlier in the session, gold prices rose as the U.S. Dollar retreated from two-week highs and U.S. Treasury yields fell, with traders focusing on economic data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s strategy on monetary support going forward.

At 13:08 GMT, June Comex gold futures are trading $1792.00, up $7.70 or +0.43%.

Thin market conditions ahead of Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report have contributed to this week’s volatile price action. Dovish comments from Federal Reserve members have helped underpin prices, while stronger-than-expected economic data has helped put a lid on gains.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, a noted dove, also contributed to the volatility with two-sided comments.

Fed’s Rosengren Says It Is Premature to Talk About Tapering

Helping to support gold prices on Thursday are comments from Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren.

On Wednesday, Rosengren said inflation will be temporarily distorted this spring as the U.S. economy works through imbalances caused by the pandemic but the pressures should be short-lived and should not lead to a pullback in monetary policy.

“Despite the ebbs and flows of the data, inflation is expected to remain close to 2 percent over the forecast horizon,” Rosengren said during a virtual event organized by Boston College. “This does seem to me to be the most likely outcome, which should allow monetary policymakers to be patient in removing accommodation.”

For now, Rosengren said “significant slack remains in the economy” and made it clear it is too soon to start talking about reducing the Fed’s asset purchases.

“We need to have a substantial improvement for us to begin tapering. It is quite possible that we’ll see those conditions as we get to the latter half of the year,” Rosengren said. “But right now what we have is one really strong employment report, one quarterly strong GDP report. And so I think it’s premature right now to focus on the tapering.”

Daily Outlook

After an earlier surge, gold prices appear to be consolidating as investors position themselves ahead of Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. This report could set the tone of the market for the next month.

On Wednesday, ADP reported strong private sector numbers. On Thursday, initial claims for unemployment benefits fell sharply last week to 498,000, in another sign the labor market is getting closer to pre-pandemic levels.

There is nothing bullish per se in the news, but investors appear unwilling to give up until there is definitive proof that the Fed is getting ready to begin tapering its bond purchases.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for May 6, 2021

The Euro is trading higher against the U.S. Dollar as global risk appetite improved while traders focused on U.S. economic data that may provide clues on when the U.S. Federal Reserve might dial back monetary stimulus. A dip in U.S. Treasury yields also weighed on demand for the U.S. Dollar.

At 12:23 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.2052, up 0.0047 or +0.39%.

In economic news, Euro Zone retail sales rose by more than expected in March, data showed on Thursday, pointing to pent-up consumer demand as pandemic lockdowns ease.

The European Union’s statistics office Eurostat said on Thursday that retail sales in the 19 countries sharing the Euro jumped 2.7% month-on-month in March for a 12.0% year-on-year surge.

Daily EUR/USD

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1986 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 1.2150 will change the main trend to up.

The short-term range is 1.2243 to 1.1704. The EUR/USD is currently trading on the strong side of its retracement zone at 1.2038 to 1.1974. This is giving it a slight upside bias. This zone is also new support.

The main range is 1.1603 to 1.2349. Its retracement zone at 1.1976 to 1.1888 is additional support.

The short-term and main retracement zones combine to form a support cluster at 1.1976 to 1.1974.

Another short-term range is 1.1704 to 1.2150. Its 50% level at 1.1927 is another potential support area. This level forms inside the main retracement zone.

The minor range is 1.2150 to 1.1986. Its 50% level at 1.2068 is the first upside target. Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on a test of this level. They are going to try to form a potentially bearish secondary lower top.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The early price action suggests the direction of the EUR/USD on Wednesday will be determined by trader reaction to 1.2038 and 1.2068.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.2068 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the minor bottom at 1.1986, followed by 1.1976.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.2068 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside with 1.2150 the next likely upside target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – ‘Bearish Surprise’ Fears Ahead of Weekly EIA Storage Report

Natural gas futures are trading nearly flat shortly before the New York opening and well ahead of the release of the weekly government storage report at 14:30 GMT. After reaching its highest level since February 22 on Tuesday, gains have been capped by expectations from a more substantial build in underground inventories.

At 11:31 GMT, June natural gas futures are trading $2.945, up $0.007 or +0.24%.

Energy Information Administration Weekly Storage Report

Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) is reporting that traders are expecting today’s EIA report to show a storage injection for the week ended April 30 that could be more than four times greater than the prior week.

NGI also reported that a Bloomberg survey Wednesday showed a median estimate for a 66 Bcf injection, with predictions ranging from 49 Bcf to 76 Bcf. Estimates generated by a Reuters poll spanned increases of 49 Bcf to 76 Bcf, with a median of 65 Bcf. The Wall Street Journal’s weekly survey showed estimates ranging from increase of 52 Bcf to 70 Bcf, with an average of 62 Bcf.

NGI’s model predicted a 76 Bcf build.

Median estimates for the April 30 week, while much higher, still compare favorably to recent history. The EIA recorded a 103 Bcf build in the comparable week of 2020, while the five-year average injection is 81 Bcf, according to NGI.

If you recall, last week’s EIA report showed a 15 Bcf injection for the week ended April 23. That was well below normal for this time of year, leaving U.S. inventories at 1,898 Bcf – 302 Bcf lower than a year earlier and 40 Bcf below the five-year average.

After initially falling on the news last Thursday, prices rose on Monday in a delayed reaction to the news.

Short-Term Weather Outlook

According to NatGasWeather for the week-ending May 6 to May 12, “Weather systems and associated cool shots with showers and thunderstorms will continue across the Midwest and Northeast through next week with highs of 50s and 60s and lows of 30s and 40s. Cooling has also arrived into the South/Southeast with highs of 70s to low 80s for lighter demand, although warming back into the 80s and 90s from Texas to the Southeast late this weekend. The West will experience showers and cooling over the Northwest in the coming days with highs of 50s and 60s but very warm over the Southwest with highs of 80s to 90s. Overall, moderate the rest of the week.”

Daily June Natural Gas

Daily Forecast

Traders are taking no chances ahead of this week’s EIA report, essentially moving to the sidelines ahead of the numbers.

A neutral report would actually compare favorably to historic norms, but the move to the sidelines suggests traders are erring on the side of caution because of the possibility of a bearish surprise.

A bullish report could trigger a retest of this week’s high at $3.001, setting up the possibility of a breakout rally. A bearish report could drive prices back toward the upper level of a support zone at $2.868.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD/JPY Forex Technical Analysis – Consolidating Inside 109.223 – 109.634 Ahead of Friday’s US Jobs Report

The Dollar/Yen is edging higher on Thursday while consolidating for a third session ahead of a key U.S. jobs report that may provide clues on when the Federal Reserve will dial back monetary stimulus. This follows weakness on Wednesday that was fueled by a dip in U.S. Treasury yields.

U.S. Treasury yields held steady on Wednesday after private payrolls data showed employers continued to add positions back at a steady clip during the month of April.

At 08:04 GMT, the USD/JPY is trading 109.364, up 0.167 or +0.15%.

Private jobs growth accelerated in April but fell a bit short of lofty Wall Street expectations, according to a report Wednesday from ADP. Additionally, the ISM Services PMI report came in at 62.7, down from the previously reported 63.7 and below the 64.2 forecast.

In other news, Bank of Japan (BOJ) policymakers agreed on the need to focus on keeping interest rates stably low while the economy remains under the strain caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, minutes of the central bank’s meeting showed on Thursday.

Daily USD/JPY

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, but momentum is trending higher. The USD/JPY was in the midst of a six-session counter-trend rally when a closing price reversal top on Monday stopped the move cold.

A trade through 109.698 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the counter-trend rally.

The main tend changes to up on a trade through 110.966. A move through 107.479 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is up. This is controlling the momentum. A trade through 109.698 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The minor trend will change to down on a move through 108.435.

The short-term range is 110.966 to 107.479. Its retracement zone at 109.223 to 109.634 is currently being tested.

Minor range support is a pair of 50% levels at 108.720 and 108.589. They are followed by a major Fibonacci level at 108.230.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the USD/JPY on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 109.223.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 109.223 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into 109.634, followed by 109.698.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 109.223 will signal the presence of sellers. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with 108.720 the next potential downside target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

NZD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to .7204 – .7266 Retracement Tone Set Near-Term Tone

The New Zealand Dollar is trading lower on Thursday after giving up earlier gains despite a pair of economic reports indicating a strengthening economy.

The Kiwi Dollar rallied on Wednesday in reaction to better-than-expected labor market data and mixed reports from the U.S. on private sector jobs and the services industry.

At 05:15 GMT, the NZD/USD is trading .7206, down 0.0011 or -0.15%.

Early today, figures from Statistics New Zealand showed the number of new homes consented in the year ended March 2021 reached an all-time high of 41,028, due to an increase in consents for higher-density housing.

In other news, a preliminary reading of New Zealand ANZ business confidence improved to 7.0 in May, up from -2.0.

Daily NZD/USD

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7115 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through .7287.

The main range is .7465 to .6943. The NZD/USD is currently testing its retracement zone at .7204 to .7266. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the Forex pair.

The short-term range is .6943 to .7287. Its retracement zone at .7115 to .7074 is potential support.

The main support is the long-term retracement zone at .7027 to .6924.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the NZD/USD on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to .7204.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7204 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into .7266, followed by .7287. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7204 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is a minor pivot at .7172. If this level fails as support then look for the selling to possibly extend into .7115 to .7074.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – If Downside Momentum Continues then Look for Test of .7675 – .7641

The Australian Dollar is edging lower on Thursday as traders position themselves ahead of a speech by Reserve Bank Governor Guy Debelle at 09:00 GMT. On Wednesday, the Aussie Dollar rose as the U.S. Dollar retreated after a report showed the private sector added fewer jobs than forecast.

At 04:34 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7728, down 0.0020 or -0.26%.

U.S. private payrolls rose by the most in seven months in April, ADP data showed on Wednesday, as companies boosted production to meet a surge in demand amid massive government spending and rising COViD-19 vaccinations. But the 742,000 private jobs created fell short of the 800,000 jobs expected by economists in a Reuters poll.

Daily AUD/USD

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The trend turned down on Tuesday when sellers took out the swing bottom at .7691. A trade through .7675 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through .7818 will change the main trend to up.

The short-term range is .7532 to .7818. Its retracement zone at .7675 to .7641 is the next downside target and potential support area.

The main range is .8007 to .7532. Its retracement zone at .7770 to .7826 is resistance. This zone stopped the rally at .7818 last week.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the AUD/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at .7770.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7770 will indicate the presence of sellers. If the move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the short-term retracement zone at .7675 to .7641. We could see a technical bounce on the first test of this area, but if it fails then look for a possible spike into the .7586 main bottom.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7770 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the main top at .7818, followed closely by the main Fibonacci level at .7826. Taking out this level could trigger a further rally into the main top at .7849. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Support Moves Up to 33896 and 33688

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are in a position to close higher late Wednesday after the cash market Dow hit a record high earlier in the session on the back of strong performances by components technology giants Microsoft Corp and Apple Inc. Helping to dampen the rally were shares of Boeing Co, which fell 1.6%.

At 20:52 GMT, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 34116, up 96 or +0.28%.

In other news, the ADP National Employment Report showed U.S. private payrolls increased in April as companies rushed to boost production amid a surge in demand, powered by massive government aid and rising vaccinations against COVID-19.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 34219 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through the nearest swing bottom at 33572.

The first minor range is 33572 to 34219. Its 50% level or pivot at 33896 is the first support.

The second minor range is 33157 to 34219. Its pivot at 33688 is another potential support level.

The short-term range is 31951 to 34219. If the main trend changes to down then its 50% level at 33085 will become the primary downside target.

Short-Term Outlook

The early trade on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 34113.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 34113 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into 34219. This price is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 34113 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the first pivot at 33896.

Side Notes

Taking out 34219 on Thursday then closing lower will form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 4165.75, Weakens Under 4160.75

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading slightly higher, well off its high and threatening to test its low for the day, late in the session on Wednesday.

Earlier in the session, the S&P 500 technology sector was up about 0.9%. Six of the 11 major S&P 500 sector rose in early afternoon trading, with commodity-sensitive sectors including energy and materials rising 3.5% and 1.3%, respectively.

Defensive utilities fell 2.2% and real estate dropped 1.3%, leading sectoral declines.

At 20:21 GMT, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4160.75, up 2.50 or +0.06%.

Daily June E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending lower. A trade through 4211.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 4110.50 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is down. This is controlling the momentum. A trade through 4202.50 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside.

The minor range is 4211.00 to 4120.50. The index straddled its pivot at 4165.75 throughout the session, suggesting a battle between bullish trend-traders and aggressive counter-trend traders.

The short-term range is 4110.50 to 4211.00. Its 50% level or pivot is 4160.75. This level was also straddled on Wednesday.

The main range is 3843.25 to 4211.00. If the main trend changes to down then look for the selling to possibly extend into its retracement zone at 4027.00 to 3983.75.

Short-Term Outlook

The minor direction of the index will be determined by trader reaction to the minor pivot at 4165.75.

The short-term direction of the index will be determined by trader reaction to the short-term pivot at 4160.75.

Look for an upside bias to develop on a sustained move over 4165.75 with 4120.50 and 4211.00 the next potential upside targets.

A downside bias is likely to develop on a sustained move under 4160.75. This could lead to a test of this week’s low at 4120.50, followed by the main bottom at 4110.50.

Side Notes

Trading between 4160.75 and 4165.75 for most of the session on Thursday will indicate investor indecision and impending volatility.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Crude Oil Price Update – Rally Stalls After EIA Gasoline Build Disappoints Bulls

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are retreating from their intraday high on Wednesday, shortly after the release of the government’s weekly inventories report that showed a drop in U.S. crude stocks and distillate inventories, and a rise in gasoline inventories. The price action suggests traders were disappointed by the numbers.

At 15:00 GMT, June WTI crude oil futures are trading $66.29, up $0.60 or +0.91%.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude inventories fell by 8 million barrels in the week to April 30 to 485.1 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.3 million-barrel drop.

U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 737,000 barrels in the week to 235.8 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 652,000-barrel drop.

Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 2.9 million barrels in the week to 136.2 million barrels, versus expectations for a 1.1 million-barrel drop, the EIA data showed.

Daily June WTI Crude Oil

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the intraday high at $66.76 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through $62.91 will change the main trend to down.

The new minor range is $62.91 to $66.76. Its 50% level at $64.84 is the new potential downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June WTI crude oil futures contract into the close on Wednesday will be determined by trader reaction to $65.69.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $65.69 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this generates enough upside momentum then look for a breakout over the intraday high with the March 8 main top at $67.29 the next upside target, and potential trigger point for an upside breakout.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $65.69 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a move into the new minor pivot at $64.84.

Side Notes

A close under $65.69 will form a closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could lead to a 2 to 3 day correction with $64.84 the first target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Will Bullish Miss by EIA Be Enough for Sustainable Breakout?

Natural gas futures are trading slightly higher on Wednesday, but inside yesterday’s range. The early price action suggests investor indecision and impending volatility. The market inched above the psychological $3.000 level on Tuesday, but there was not enough buying to sustain the attempted breakout. This suggests that buyers feel that it’s too early in the season for a rally, or there are still not enough bullish catalysts supporting a price surge at this time.

Despite the slow trade, the market remains well supported. This means bullish traders may take another run at $3.00. They have two choices: buy strength and play for a breakout, or buy the dip and hope the fundamentals remain supportive.

At 14:03 GMT, June natural gas futures are trading $2.928, down $0.039 or -1.31%.

Short-Term Weather Forecast

According to NatGasWeather for May 5 to May 11, “Weather systems and associated cool shots with showers and thunderstorms will continue across the Midwest and Northeast into next week with highs of 50s and 60s, lows of 30s and 40s. Cooling will also push into Texas and the South/Southeast in the coming days with highs of 70s to low 80s for light demand, then warming back into the 80s and 90s late this weekend into next week. The West will see a mix of mild conditions over the Northwest with highs of 50s to 70s but very warm over the Southwest with highs of 80s to 90s. Overall, moderate the rest of the week.”

Early Look at Thursday’s Energy Information Administration Storage Report

Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) reported that for Thursday’s EIA storage report, a Bloomberg survey as of early Wednesday showed a median estimate for a 66 Bcf injection for the week ended April 30. That was based on 10 estimates ranging from 49 Bcf to 76 Bcf. Bespoke Weather Services said its predicting a 71 Bcf build.

Daily Forecast

The market could remain rangebound on Wednesday as traders continue to assess the latest short-term weather patterns and position themselves ahead of Thursday’s EIA storage report. However, prices are likely to hover around $3.000 as traders await further bullish information that could launch the next breakout rally.

Bespoke said, “The market likely needs a new bullish catalyst to break through the $3.000 level, be it from a bullish miss in tomorrow’s report, or cash prices that continue to gain strength.”

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Big Price Surge Expected if EIA Gasoline Draw Exceeds Expectations

U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures are trading higher on Wednesday shortly after the New York opening and ahead of the release of the U.S. government’s weekly inventories report at 14:30 GMT.

Prices are up for a third session as the easing of lockdowns and restrictions in the United States and parts of Europe led to optimistic forecasts calling for a boost in fuel demand during the summer and offset concerns about the rise of COVID-19 infections in India and Japan.

At 13:00 GMT, June WTI crude oil futures are trading $66.59, up $0.90 or +1.37% and July Brent crude oil is at $69.83, up $0.95 or +1.38%. Both futures contracts exceeded their March 8 tops.

Domestic and international crude oil prices were also supported by a large fall in U.S. inventories. Traders are now awaiting data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) due at 14:30 GMT on Wednesday to see if official data shows such a large fall.

Vaccine Rollouts, Economic Data Underpinning Prices

The rise in oil prices to multi-month highs earlier today has been supported by COVID-19 vaccine rollouts in Europe and the United States where more than 40% of U.S. adults have received a vaccine.

Euro Zone business accelerated last month as the bloc’s dominant services industry shrugged off renewed lockdowns and returned to growth.

In the United States, private job growth accelerated in April but fell a bit short of Wall Street expectations, according to a report Wednesday from payroll processing firm ADP.

Companies added 742,000 workers for the month, a jump from March’s upwardly revised 565,000 but a bit shy of the 800,000 forecast from economists surveyed by Dow Jones.

American Petroleum Institute Weekly Inventories Report

The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported late Tuesday that U.S. crude supplies fell by 7.7 million barrels for the week ended April 30. Ahead of the report, traders were pricing in at 3.9 million barrel draw.

The API also reported that gasoline stockpiles fell by 5.3 million barrels versus pre-report estimates of a 500,000 barrel drawdown.

Meanwhile, distillate inventories declined by nearly 3.5 million barrels. Traders were looking for a 1.6 million barrel drawdown.

Daily Forecast

Today’s EIA report is likely to set the tone for the rest of the session. Traders are looking for a crude oil drawdown of 1.9 million barrels.

Prices could spike higher if the number is higher than expected, especially if it exceeds the API’s 7.7 million barrel draw. Traders will also be watching the gasoline numbers closely. A stronger-than-expected draw in gasoline stockpiles will be further confirmation that the economy is heating up.

“The partial lifting of mobility restrictions, the expectation that tourism will return in the near future, and the lure of the psychologically important $70 mark are all likely to have contributed to the price rise,” Commerzbank analyst Eugen Weinberg said.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Gold Edges Lower after Strong ADP Employment Data

Gold futures are trading nearly flat shortly before the release of a series of key U.S. economic reports on Wednesday that could dictate the tone of the market for the rest of the session. Bullish data could drive U.S. Treasury yields higher on the notion that it would encourage the Federal Reserve to start discussing tapering its bond purchases.

At 12:00 GMT, June Comex gold futures are trading $1777.30, up $1.30 or +0.07%.

Capping prices are hawkish comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday. Yellen said rate hikes may be needed to stop the economy from overheating as President Joe Biden’s spending plans boost growth, the comment drove prices down from a two-month high.

Gold prices began to stabilize after Yellen downplayed her earlier comments, saying she sees no inflation problem brewing.

US Economic Reports

April’s ADP Employment Change data, which tracks the growth of private payrolls, is due to be published at 12:15 GMT on Wednesday.

Economists polled by Dow Jones are expecting 800,000 private jobs added in April, compared to the 517,000 in March, according to the 517,000 in March, according to ADP. These number come ahead of Friday’s closely-watched jobs report.

The report showed the U.S. added 742,000 private payrolls in April. Gold prices remained flat after the news.

The final Markit purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for April is set to be released at 13:45 GMT, followed by the ISM non-manufacturing PMI for last month at 14:00 GMT.

Daily Forecast

If the economic reports don’t move gold prices then comments from Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans could.

A month ago, Evans said that while he’s become much more positive about the economic outlook, he continues to expect the U.S. central bank will need to keep policy easy for some time in order to boost inflation to healthier levels.

“Some even higher rates of inflation are needed to get inflation to average 2 percent and to solidify inflation expectations about that number” Evans said. “So, I see the need for continued accommodative monetary policy to reach our goals.”

Gold traders will be eyeing Evans to see if he maintains his stance, or if he has turned a little hawkish. If Evans sees the need for the Fed to become less-accommodative then yields could rise and gold prices fall.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for May 5, 2021

The Euro is trading nearly flat against the U.S. Dollar on Wednesday after recovering from early session weakness. The single-currency is being supported as Euro Zone bond yields edged up as equity markets recovered from a sudden slump a day earlier that had sent yields on the safe-haven assets falling sharply.

At 11:22 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.2014, down 0.0001 or -0.01%.

In other news, Euro Zone producer prices accelerated in line with expectations in March, driven by increases for energy and intermediate goods, data showed on Wednesday, reinforcing forecasts of higher consumer inflation in the coming months.

Later today traders will get the opportunity to react to several U.S. economic reports including April’s ADP Employment Change at 12:30 GMT, the final Markit purchasing managers’ index (PMI) at 13:45 GMT and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at 14:00 GMT.

The results generated by these reports should set the tone later in the session. Stronger-than-expected data could drive yields higher which would make the U.S. Dollar a more attractive investment.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The downtrend was reaffirmed earlier in the session when sellers took out 1.1994. The next target is the main bottom at 1.1943. A move through 1.2150 will change the main trend to up.

The intermediate range is 1.2243 to 1.1704. The EUR/USD is currently trading inside its retracement zone at 1.1974 to 1.2038.

The main range is 1.1603 to 1.2349. Its retracement zone at 1.1976 to 1.1888 is the key support area. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the EUR/USD.

The short-term range is 1.1704 to 1.2150. Its 50% level at 1.1927 is another potential downside target. It falls inside the main retracement zone.

A price cluster at 1.1976 to 1.1974 is also potential support.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the EUR/USD on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 1.2015.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.2015 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is the intraday low at 1.1986, followed by the support cluster at 1.1976 to 1.1974. Aggressive counter-trend buyers could come in on a test of this area.

If 1.1974 fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the main bottom at 1.1943 and the pivot at 1.1927.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.2015 will signal the presence of buyers. The first upside target is 1.2038. Look for sellers on the first test.

Taking out 1.2038 could trigger a surge into a minor pivot at 1.2068.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Counter-Trend Upside Target is 13722.50 – 13803.00

June E-mini NASDAQ-100 index futures rebounded on Wednesday following a session defined by major weakness in technology stocks. Major tech shares rebounded in early trading. Apple and Tesla gained about 1% each after falling 3.5% and 1.7% respectively on Tuesday.

At 10:48 GMT, June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 13613.75, up 77.75 or +0.57%.

On Tuesday, investors exited technology and growth stocks, pushing the cash market NASDAQ Composite down 1.9%. Along with losses in Apple and Tesla, shares of Netflix lost 1.2%, and Microsoft dropped 1.6%. Amazon and Facebook shed 2.2% and 1.3%, respectively. Alphabet fell 1.6%.

Daily June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The trend turned down on Tuesday when sellers took out the previous swing bottom at 13700.50. The main trend will change to up on a move through 14064.00.

The short-term range is 12609.75 to 14064.00. Its retracement zone at 13336.75 to 13165.25 is the first downside target.

The main range is 12200.00 to 14064.00. Its retracement zone at 13132.00 to 12912.00 is the major downside target area.

The retracement zones combine to form a potential support cluster at 13165.25 to 13132.00. We’re likely to see a technical bounce on the first test of this area.

The minor range is 14064.00 to 13380.75. Its retracement zone at 13722.50 to 13803.00 is the primary upside target. Since the main trend is down, sellers are likely to come in on a test of this zone.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The early inside trading range suggests investor indecision and impending volatility. In other words, we could be looking a two-sided trade on Wednesday. We’re going to use yesterday’s close at 13536.00 as our pivot.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 13536 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a test of 13722.50 to 13803.00. Since the main trend is down, sellers are likely to come in on a move into this retracement zone. Overcoming 13803.00 will be a sign of strength.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 13536.00 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into yesterday’s low at 13380.75, followed closely by a 50% level at 13336.75.

If 13336.75 fails as support then we could see an acceleration into the price cluster at 13165.25 to 13132.00. Aggressive counter trend buyers could come in on a test of this area.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

U.S. Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 91.565, Weakens Under 91.110

The U.S. Dollar hit its highest level against a basket of currencies since April 21 on Wednesday, extending a rally as chatter about the possibility of higher U.S. interest rates and a sell-off in tech stocks soured risk sentiment to the benefit of the safe-haven currency.

At 09:17 GMT, June U.S. Dollar Index futures are trading 91.375, up 0.100 or +0.11%.

An early rally by the greenback on Tuesday was partly sparked by comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen that rate hikes may be needed to stop the economy from overheating. Yellen later downplayed their importance, but even the slightest mention of U.S. tightening has an outsized impact in markets that have become so dependent on monetary stimulus.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed earlier in the session when buyers took out another swing top at 91.425. A trade through 90.395 will change the main trend to down.

The short-term range is 89.655 to 93.470. The market is currently testing its retracement zone at 91.110 to 91.565.

The main range is 94.587 to 89.155. Its retracement zone at 91.870 to 92.510 is the primary upside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June U.S. Dollar Index on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at 91.110.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 91.110 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the short-term 50% level at 91.565. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into a minor top at 91.810, followed by the main 50% level at 91.870.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 91.100 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a pullback into a minor pivot at 90.915, followed by the main bottom at 90.395.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to $1777.10 Pivot Sets the Tone

Gold futures are trading flat to lower on Wednesday as concerns over the possibility of higher U.S. interest rates, following hawkish comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, drove the U.S. Dollar higher.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Tuesday she sees no inflation problem brewing, downplaying earlier comments that rate hikes may be needed to stop the economy from overheating as President Joe Biden’s spending plans boost growth.

At 08:41 GMT, June Comex gold futures are trading $1774.80, down $1.20 or -0.07%.

Daily June Comex Gold

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1799.50 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through $1754.60 will change the main trend to down.

The minor range is $1754.60 to $1799.50. The market is currently straddling its 50% level or pivot at $1777.10.

On the upside, the resistance is the long-term 50% level at $1788.50.

On the downside, the first potential support is a 50% level at $1761.40, followed by a second 50% level at $1738.40 and a long-term Fibonacci level at $1711.90.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June Comex gold futures contract is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at $1777.10.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1777.10 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the 50% level at $1761.40, followed closely by the main bottom at $1754.60.

Taking out $1754.60 will change the main trend to down. This could trigger an acceleration into another 50% level at $1738.40.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1777.10 will signal the presence of buyers. The first upside target is the long-term 50% level at $1788.50. Overtaking this level could drive the market into $1799.50. This price is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with $1817.60 the next potential upside target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Crude Oil Price Update – WTI Hits High of Session Following Release of Bullish API Inventories Report

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are testing their high for the session on Tuesday after a private industry report showed a larger-than-expected draw down for crude oil, gasoline and distillates.

Prior to the release of the report at 20:30 GMT, a bullish tone had been present in the market as traders bet increased demand in the United States, Europe and China would offset any lost demand caused by the surging COVID-19 pandemic in India.

At 20:55 GMT, June WTI crude oil was trading $66.19, up $1.70 or +2.64%.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported late Tuesday that U.S. crude supplies fell by 7.7 million barrels for the week ended April 30. Ahead of the report, traders were pricing in at 3.9 million barrel draw.

The API also reported that gasoline stockpiles fell by 5.3 million barrels versus pre-report estimates of a 500,000 barrel drawdown.

Meanwhile, distillate inventories declined by nearly 3.5 million barrels. Traders were looking for a 1.6 million barrel drawdown.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed earlier on Tuesday when buyers took out swing tops at $65.47 and $66.15. A new main bottom was formed at $62.91. A trade through this level will change the main trend to down.

The main range is $67.29 to $57.29. Its retracement zone at $63.47 to $62.29 is new support. Trading on the strong side of this zone puts the market in a bullish position.

Short-Term Outlook

The current upside momentum suggests the market has enough fire power behind it to fuel a test of the March 8 main top at $67.29 over the near-term.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Wall Street Losses Expected to Drag Asia-Pacific Shares Lower on Opening

Asia-Pacific shares are expected to open lower on Wednesday with traders taking their cues from a steep plunge in mega-cap growth shares on Wall Street. Investors dumped the higher risk tech shares for protection in more defensive parts of the market.

All 11 major S&P 500 sectors were down, with technology communication services and consumer discretionary falling more than 2% each. Meanwhile, the defensive consumer staples, utilities and real estate sectors fell the least.

Tuesday Recap

Stocks in the Asia-Pacific region were mixed on Tuesday with major markets in Japan and China still closed for bank holidays.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index settled 0.70% higher. South Korea’s KOSPI Index was up 0.64% and China’s Shanghai Index finished down 0.81%. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 Index closed up 0.56%.

Investors Eyeing COVID-19 Outbreak in India

Investors continued to monitor the COVID-19 situation in India as it shows little signs of slowing down. The World Health Organization said last week that one in every three new coronavirus cases globally is being reported in India.

Reserve Bank of Australia Holds Policy Steady

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its key rates at near zero for a fifth straight meeting on Tuesday and pledged to keep policy supper loose for a prolonged period even as the economy recovers at a rapid pace from the COVID-19-led downturn.

The RBA reiterated its commitment to keep the cash rate at the record-low of 0.1% for as long as is needed to pull down unemployment and push inflation higher.

The RBA’s as-expected decision comes as it painted a rosy picture of the A$2 trillion ($1.55 trillion) economy, and upgraded the growth forecast to 4.75% over 2021, from its February forecast of 3.5%.

Australia Shares Rise as Central Bank Upgrades Growth Forecast

Australian shares closed higher on Tuesday as the central bank raised its economic growth forecast and kept interest rates on hold, with commodity-related stocks leading the way on the benchmark index.

Gold and mining stocks led the gains on strong metals prices, while tech stocks lost ground. The metals and mining index climbed 2.3%. Big miners BHP Group and Rio Tinto added 2.6% and 2.5%, respectively.

Energy Leads Hong Kong Stocks Higher on Pandemic Recovery Signs

Hong Kong shares settled higher on Tuesday, with energy stocks leading the gains on signs of recovery from the coronavirus pandemic as major economies around the world reopen.

The sub-index of the Hang Seng tracking energy shares rose 2.3%, while the IT sector edged up 0.05%, the financial sector climbed 0.78% and the property sector gained 0.52%.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for May 4, 2021

The Euro is trading lower on Tuesday as a drop in demand for higher risk assets following a sell-off in the U.S. stock market encouraged investors to seek protection in the U.S. Dollar. The dollar’s rise against the Euro could also be a reflection of profit-taking and position-squaring ahead of upcoming U.S. economic reports and policy speeches by Federal Reserve members.

At 18:51 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.2016, down 0.0047 or -0.39%.

Tuesday’s rebound reversed losses sustained on Monday after a disappointing U.S. manufacturing survey report. Although April’s headline survey numbers were lower than March, the U.S. recovery remained firmly on track with price pressures rising, while the Federal Reserve appeared to be in no hurry to tighten.

Traders also feel that if Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report blows away the estimates then the Fed is going to have to start talking seriously about tapering sooner rather than later.

Daily EUR/USD

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1994 will reaffirm the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through 1.2150.

The intermediate range is 1.2243 to 1.1704. The EUR/USD is currently trading inside its retracement zone at 1.1974 to 1.2038.

The main range is 1.1603 to 1.2349. Its retracement zone at 1.1976 to 1.1888 is the primary downside target. This area is also controlling the near-term direction of the Forex pair.

The short-term range is 1.1704 to 1.2150. Its 50% level at 1.1927 is a potential downside target. It falls inside the main retracement zone.

Short-Term Outlook

Trader reaction to 1.2038 will set the tone into the close.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.2038 will indicate late session selling pressure. This could drive the EUR/USD through the 1.1994 main bottom and into the main 50% level at 1.1976.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.2038 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger a late session short-covering rally into 1.2075.

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