Bitcoin: Still No Advantage, Waiting For Better Prices.

In my previous video, I highlighted a number of price scenarios and one of them were a higher low established off of the 52K area. We almost got that one, except that price, refuses to break 53K. For shorter time frame strategies like day trading, these sharp single candle moves offer excellent opportunities, but for swing trades, the risk is too high.

Here is what I mean: If we go long at 58K, proportional risk for a swing trade is now around 53K which means I have to risk at LEAST 5K points. In order to justify this, Bitcoin needs to push to 63K in the next leg just to reach a 1:1 reward/risk ratio. The probability of that scenario is much lower compared to if I bought around 50K, risked only 3K points, and required a retrace back to the middle of the range (55 to 58K area). The probability of a retrace back to the middle of the range is much greater than of the range low.

Since we trade rules for our swing trade strategy, we have no choice but to wait this out. Bitcoin either tests the range low again, (between 52K and 50K) and provides a setup, or we don’t assume any new risk. Waiting for the right level and setup is much more effective when it comes to returns over time compared to taking numerous low-probability trades. Many traders and investors don’t realize, over time, the losing trades cost way more than the few random wins from chasing action.

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Bitcoin Price Spike: How To Buy Into This?

Is this the norm? It is tough to define “norm” for Bitcoin, but none the less, the 51,300 entry price was taken out and Bitcoin has been gyrating around 54 to 55K ever since.

So if you missed this swing trade, what is the best way to adjust and prepare for the next buying opportunity? And why not buy it now?

Let me answer the second question first: we don’t buy now for a swing trade because we don’t chase moves where the reward/risk is no longer attractive. It is that simple. If price continues higher from here, it does so without us because we focus on risk and sometimes that means letting a trade go. Effective risk management is what leads to consistency, NOT big wins.

As far as preparing for the next buying opportunity: IF Bitcoin can retrace to the 52500, to 53500 area and produce a bullish reversal, that would be a higher low. Risk can be clearly defined off of such a structure and we will be prompted to share a new swing trade long idea if the scenario materializes.

A more extreme bullish scenario would be a test of the 48K area a second time which would be a potential double bottom (similar to Gold off of 1675). IF a bullish reversal can materialize here, it would be an even more attractive swing trade long idea in terms of reward/risk.

It is also possible that Bitcoin gyrates within a very tight range around 55K for a few days while establishing a momentum continuation pattern to go higher. In this situation we will be open to taking on a new swing trade long, but it will be categorized as an aggressive trade since the location is less than ideal. In this scenario, at least there is a pattern to define risk from.

I just presented the main criteria that price needs to meet before we consider assuming any new risk. In other words, we take positions based on rules, not feelings, opinions or reactions to information. If Bitcoin does not align with the rules, whether it runs or not, we do not put on any new risk. Rules promote consistency.

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Bitcoin: Waiting For A New Buy Signal

At this time, 50K is still the key support that is in play. That means it is still very possible for a retest of this area, followed by a bullish reversal. That is the scenario we are waiting for because it offers the best reward/risk along a greater population of participants looking to buy. How do we know? The initial test of the 50K area support didn’t even touch 50K, which can be interpreted as plentiful buying activity (see recent candle stick tail).

IF price manages to make the slight lower low, the mistake to avoid is to step into it too early. It can be very tempting, but waiting for confirmation (a bullish reversal pattern), helps to minimize getting caught in a support break or dramatic sell off. The trade off is you will not enter at the best possible price, but the good news is you don’t need to. Momentum on your side more than makes up for having the best price. Don’t seek perfection in an arena where it doesn’t exist.

So we WAIT. No predictions, no hunches, no opinions. Bitcoin either aligns with the strategy, or we don’t assume any risk. As many “gurus” will not tell you (because they are too busy putting out “action”), high quality opportunities and setups are infrequent and RARE. Over a one month period we have only been seeing maybe 2 or 3 at most in recent months on the swing trade time frame. That translates to maybe 1 per week. More trades than that? You are either over trading or day trading.

IF the 50K support breaks, it can lead to a test of the 48K to 45K area quickly. This scenario will also put a lot of pressure on many of the overly hyped alt coins as well. Keep in mind, risk should be your first priority, not profits. With this philosophy in mind, if 50K breaks, and you have a lot of exposure to alts, it may be a good idea to lighten up even if it means absorbing a smaller loss along the way. Going into “HOPE MODE” is not a strategy, nor is it healthy for your account over the long run. Hype and the herd mentality have been at euphoric levels recently, and when the space goes out of favor, many will be stuck in coins that are not worth anything even close to what they paid for them.

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Bitcoin Break Out: Where’s The Follow through?

Bitcoin pushed all time highs to 65K and is now showing signs of indecision. While there is no sell signal in place at the moment, here are some important considerations when it comes to judging momentum follow through. This is especially important if you bought into the recent break out.

The 61300 to 64250 area is another reversal zone relative to Bitcoin’s recent price structure. Price is now hesitating in this zone and a break of 61300 would constitute a new sell signal in terms of our swing trade strategy.

This sell signal is not what you want to see develop after such a break out. It can be met with more dramatic selling pressure thanks to all of the new longs lured into the market during the break out.

The first support is now around the 58K area (where price spent a lot of time lingering), and the second support is still around the 50K area. The next resistance is still around 66K (which was almost reached in the recent break out).

It is also possible to see a trend continuation pattern develop over the next day or so IF the 61300 low is NOT taken out. In the current market environment, which has been lacking any significant retracements, this patterns have been very common. This would be a good sign if you are still long.

Break outs are tough trades to take because of their highly random nature. The key to making such a strategy work is to be able to exit the trade quickly if the break out turns out to be false. Many small losses can accumulate this way, but that idea is to catch the broader move when one follows through.

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Bitcoin Stuck: Solution? Stay Out.

Patience. Most people don’t have it because they let their emotions run rampant. It is not surprising when you have droves of self appointed authorities and other fake gurus amplifying this fear of missing out, or over dramatizing a minor random pullback like Bitcoin is showing now.

Identifying quality opportunities begins with a set of very well defined rules. That does not mean they have to be complex rules, they just have to be adhered to. For example, one of our rules that is part of our long only swing trade strategy is to buy only at supprots upon confirmation within the context of a broader bullish trend. Since we don’t short Bitcoin, we don’t have to worry about that side of the equation, even within a persistent bearish environment (it doesn’t cost anything to stay out).

So where is support right now? On the time frame that we utilize, it is between 52,500 and 49,500. That is a pretty wide range, but based on the recent proportions and price structure, that is where support is defined. Price is no where near this area which means our rules clearly say: stay out.

Probability favors buying activity in the low 50K area and that can further be confirmed by price action. Instead of predicting moves, we let the market show its hand in areas where we anticipate a particular kind of activity. If Bitcoin can’t produce a compelling setup in an area of interest, all we have to do is stay out and wait. No stress, no fear of missing out, just following the rules.

Do we miss trades sometimes as a result of waiting for rules and confirmations to align? Sure, but we don’t lose any money from missing a move. These words may be easy to understand, but putting them into practice means going against your own bad habits and emotional baggage.

Improving your performance begins with developing your capacity for patience, not more and more information. High quality opportunities, especially on a swing trade time frame are INFREQUENT. If you are putting on more than 1 or 2 trades per WEEK, then you are not swing trading because that frequency is just not realistic in this slow environment.

As long as the trend stays bullish, we will be evaluating supports. IF price breaks below 48K, then we reevaluate the broader trend, not call for a bear market like so many will in such a scenario.

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Bitcoin: Do You Have The Patience For A Conflicted Market?

The area between 58K and 62K is a proportional reversal zone which has demonstrated its ability to hold price back previously. If price is going to fake out again, it is most likely to do so within this zone. So is it worth taking the chance that it breaks out? A rational answer can come from evaluating the risk.

Assuming you buy for a swing trade upon the break out at 61K, and the next daily candle closes red, you are likely caught in a fake out. The next support is between 53 and 50K. If you choose to give the broader trend a chance to follow through, you are looking at 8K+ points of risk. This means in order to justify such a trade, Bitcoin needs to push 68K just to reach a reward/risk ration of 1:1. While anything is possible, that is a lot of risk to take for a market that has to make a huge effort. All while facing a high probabily bearish reversal zone.

Some may wonder: why does the stop have to be so far away? Placing stop orders effectively requires respecting market proportions. Placing a stop order at a level you “feel” is appropriate for your risk tolerance is not relavant to the market. Bitcoin doesn’t care about how much you want to risk. This is why many traders get stopped out prematurely. The 50 to 53K area support is proportional to the time frame that we utilize for our strategy.

The best thing to do in this situation: nothing. When there is no attractive level, no setup, no confirmation, then why assume any risk? I repeat this often: we trade rules. It is the rules that produce results, not our thoughts, feelings or opinions. Waiting this out means waiting for the 50K support area to be tested again, OR price breaks out and then presents a momentum continuation pattern near the 58K area AFTER breaking out first.

If you are driven by fear of missing out, that usually means you do not have a clearly defined set of rules. If you would like to know more about how our swing trade strategy works, visit.

Bitcoin: Nothing To Worry About. Yet.

On the time frame that we utilize for our long only swing trade strategy, Bitcoin is nearing the 50K major support area. I have been talking about a potential retrace to this important price location for weeks. A retrace to this area is nothing more than a healthy pullback within a broader BULLISH trend.

In these situations, probability favors buying, not selling. The key is to wait for the proper setup and confirmation because the level alone is not enough. One potential setup I would like to see develop is a bullish pin bar. If it appears and confirms, I would be prompted to share a new swing trade long idea.

IF price decisively breaks the 50K support, then bearish momentum is likely to lead to a test of the 45 – 46K area support. In this scenario, the BROADER trend is still bullish and I would still be looking for a buy signal.

IF 40K is cleared, that is when we have to reevaluate the broader trend.

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Bitcoin Bearish Reversal Still In Play

What many traders and investors fail to realize is that price location carry probabilities. This means buy and sell signals can be assigned a loose probability which can offer a better guide when it comes to decision making.

Case in point, since the sell signal off of the 60K area, Bitcoin’s price has found temporary support around the 55K area and produced a bullish pin bar and a signal to go long (break of pin bar high). We had no intention of getting involved in that because the price location (mid 50Ks) was not favorable at all. Coming off a failed high and no price structure or stability means signals are 50/50 which is another way of saying random.

50K is the next historical support on the time frame we evaluate for swing trades. In order for us to share a new long idea, the price either goes to 50K and provides the proper buy signal, or it develops a clear supportive structure sooner followed by a buy signal. Developing a price structure takes time. One or two candles is not enough.

If the 50K support is taken out instead, then we stand aside as far as swing trades go and wait for the market to stabilize. The potential broad Wave 4 consolidation scenario is still a possibility that we cannot ignore.

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Bitcoin 57K Break Out Or Topping Formation?

The correction off the 57K peak was a potential warning that this market may be going into a Wave 4 consolidation. This doesn’t make us bearish but it does call for profit and risk adjustments. To confirm that price is in a broad consolidation (similar to Gold), the 37K support needs to be compromised which is a low probability at this point.

This is why getting married to opinions and being inflexible is ineffective behavior when it comes to short term strategies like swing trades. While Bitcoin may be in a wave 4, that does not mean we ignore buy signals, especially off of higher low supports within a broader bullish trend (see the two bullish pin bars off of the 46K area on my chart).

Here is what to look out for in the coming days: Lack of follow through. This can develop a number of ways. It can be a lower high around the 56K area, it could double top at 57K or go slightly higher and then fail.

Lack of follow through or a failed break out at this location presents very high risk for those thinking this is a good time to buy, especially for swing trades. Those in from much lower prices (like 48,500) have the luxury to let the market prove itself or not since the position is nicely profitable. If anything current prices are a place to reduce risk, not add more.

IF Bitcoin can clear the 57K resistance and close strong, then it is within reason to see a test of the mid to high 60K area over the following week. Our third profit target is within this area.

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Bitcoin 57K Break Out Or 54K Fake Out?

There is a minor resistance level between 52500 and the 54K area. There has been some hesitation but nothing significant enough to make any adjustments. If price can clear this area over the next day or two, a test of 57K and a potential break out are within reason. This is especially so since a higher high is favored in such an environment.

What if the 54K area holds price back? We would then be looking at a lower high formation (sort of what the stock market looks like right now). This would be a bearish sign and if it is followed by a break of a candle low (either the 48K area or a low of a new candle that is not on the chart at the moment) that would be a new sell signal.

In the case of a sell signal, we might exit early which can result in a break even or small loss trade. Usually we are purposely slow to react because of the amount of noise in these situations.. Along with that, our risk is defined so even if we get caught in a broader pull back, we get stopped out for the amount we were comfortable risking from the onset of the trade.

If the lower high develops, it could be another hint toward Bitcoin being in a broader Wave 4 consolidation which we have been anticipating for some time. For our strategy, confirmation will not come until the 37K support is compromised. If Bitcoin confirms that scenario, we will adjust our expectations for our long and short term strategies. For example, our swing trade strategy would require more conservative profit target expectations.

A broad Wave 4 does not mean Bitcoin goes into a bear market, but it can be a tough market to trade, very similar to Gold which I keep referring to as an example. If you would like to learn more about how our strategies work, visit

Bitcoin: Buying The Pullback?

NOW you can see why we emphasize taking partial profits, especially at inflection points. Those who followed our suggestions are now in an even more advantageous position when it comes to buying their partial positions back.

In terms of investing or position trade, any pullback within a bullish trend is an opportunity to accumulate some inventory at a better price. The thing is you must have a well-thought-out plan in terms of how much you want to invest and by what time. This is how you come up with a sizing strategy that will control risk in case Bitcoin revisits 37K or even lower. It is a low probability, but it CAN happen.

As far as swing trades go, while the location is attractive, there is no clear buy setup. Along with that, the magnitude of the recent bearish momentum increases the chance that the bears are still in control. Even if a setup develops here, it would be considered low quality based on the criteria of our strategy.

What we need to see is an instance of price stability followed by a setup. This can unfold in the form of a double bottom or failed low. Formations such as these can take some days to develop and requires patience. And there are times when the low-quality setup will pay off, the thing is it worth taking the risk? If the trade only pays off 2 out of 10 times, then it’s now worth the small win. Many traders take trades with only profit in mind, and NOT probability (which will affect performance over the long run).

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Bitcoin How Much Higher Before The Turn?

Impulse waves (aka trend) unfold in two forms: motive waves which continue the trend further and corrective waves which should be self explanatory. When a 5th leg of a motive wave completes, what likely comes next is a corrective wave.

Right now, Bitcoin is in such a situation on a very large scale. Once the current wave completes, the next wave to follow is a broad Wave 4. This is what Gold has been in since the August peak.

How do we know if we are in a Wave 4? Certain support levels have to be taken out. 45K an 43K are minor supports that can signal the beginning of the broader corrective move. IF 34K is taken out, that will be confirmation that a broad Wave 4 is in play and can linger for months.

The initial wave can appear very bearish but keep in mind it will take a lot in order to change the broader bullish trend. How will we adjust? We don’t short Bitcoin so that is not an option. We will be more selective about our entry levels for longs, because there will be many buy attempts. We will also adjust our profit targets to much more conservative expectations because what is characteristic of Wave 4 is lack of follow through.

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Bitcoin To 50K From Here?

We entered into a swing trade long at 33,650 and have reached two price targets, with the third one being 48,650 (which was missed by 400 pts). Since we are playing with house money at this point, there is no reason to exit earlier, even in the face of a potential sell signal. Here’s why:

Within the current Wave 5 impulse, only 4 subwaves can be counted. This means one more bullish leg is likely to follow before Bitcoin begins it’s broad Wave 4 consolidation. Want to see an example of a broad Wave 4? Take a look at a Gold chart since August. Initially it will look bearish, and the key will be to identify its support levels.
At the moment, as long as 40K and 42K areas are not compromised, we anticipate the current consolidation to develop into a trend continuation pattern that can lead price into the low 50Ks over the following week. Will it peak in the 50Ks? Trying to pin point a peak is the same as gambling. All we can say is price is entering into the 5th of a 5th Wave which means a peak is coming, but it is up to price action to confirm the location. Many like to “predict” a peak but that only leads to having an opinion and markets do not care about opinions.

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Bitcoin Rally Continues But Lacks Confirmation

We chose to stay in the position (which was far from our stop order) and price has now tested the 38’s again. What is lacking now is follow-through. While this may be the beginning of a Wave 5 which can lead price into the mid 40Ks, it has yet to confirm.

Confirmation requires 42K to be compromised. At the moment, price is hesitating off of the 38K area. While this price action is still in line with a consolidation and potential break out, the key to trading it effectively is to avoid unfavorable reward/risk ratios and that all begins defining risk.

Taking a swing trade long above 34K does not offer an attractive reward/risk because a proportional stop would have to be placed in the 29 or high 28K area. You would have to risk 5 or 6K points while hoping price can at least reach 40K before locking in some profit. The wide stop is relative to our specific swing trade strategy and is purposely placed in order to minimize the chance of getting stopped out, particularly in noise.

So this means one thing: DO NOT chase Bitcoin at these levels for a swing trade. If 40K resistance holds, and it retests the low 30Ks again, there will be another opportunity. If Bitcoin breaks higher, there will likely be a continuation pattern that will offer better reward/risk as well.

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Bitcoin Support And Long Setup

If you evaluate the Elliott Wave count, the current formation is most likely a Wave 4 of a broader Wave 3. This means there is still one more wave to go and based on the current trend (or impulse structure) that would be Wave 5 which can push to a new high.

The wave count helps to formulate reasonable expectations based on market proportions but it is not a requirement in order to gauge reward/risk. Trend and support/resistance variables are just as effective when it comes to looking for a high probability swing trade idea.
There are multiple instances of long candle tails off of the 28 to 29K area. This further confirms that the 27.5K level is the major trend support that needs to stay intact in order to expect this trend to continue (test of high or higher high).
At the moment, there is an inside bar developing around this multi support area. If the current candle closes as an inside bar, then based on its current location, we will be prompted to share a new swing trade idea long. The reward/risk is most attractive at current levels in light of the potential break out that can follow.
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Thank you for considering my analysis, I hope you found it helpful.

Bitcoin Consolidation Looking To Break 40K?

We are long from 37,550 and shared another idea that will be in play upon the break of 36,450. As long as the 32.5 support level continues to hold, Bitcoin is likely to squeeze higher in the coming week. Such a squeeze can lead to a test of the 40K range high and a break out should take price into the 45 to 46K area at least. This would be the follow-through of a Wave 5 of 3.

IF Bitcoin breaks the 32.5K support instead, it increases the chances of a test of the next support which is 27.5K. IF this support is compromised, Bitcoin will then most likely be in a broad Wave 4 consolidation. A good example of such a formation is a Gold chart from the August peak to the December low. It can linger for weeks.
All markets are driven by irrational forces of greed and fear. Trying to figure out “why” it is retracing will not help you make better informed decisions. Price information is the purest form of information we can gather and evaluate because it is a reflection of all the known information in the world at the moment.
Our swing trade strategy looks to capitalize on the broader trend in a market that can take days or weeks to unfold. It is rules based which minimizes the adverse effects of our opinions, and other irrational behaviors. If you want to learn more about how it works, or see first hand examples of trades that we share, visit and register for our free membership. Each week we send out a swing trade idea for free.

Bitcoin Reaching For 40K? Anything Is Possible.

At the current rate, it is within reach of 40K, and many are getting caught in the fear of missing out on routine. This is what you need to CONSIDER: The higher it goes, the greater the chance of retrace. All of the longs piling in at these highs will be the source of the dramatic selling pressure to follow once the buying activity is absorbed. The zone between 34K and 36K is a proportional area where a fake out is likely to unfold. At the time this video was made, the price has pushed through the zone which is a bullish sign.

How will the next candle develop? IF any type of bearish reversal candle appears just above or near the 36 to 37K area, a sharp retrace is likely to follow. I am not bearish on Bitcoin, but the risk at these levels is not attractive for new swing trades.

Currently, the 32.5K, 30K and 27.5K areas are the supports that I am anticipating for a new swing trade setup to appear. Will price test one of these levels over the following days? No one knows, the idea is to be prepared for the opportunity and setup IF it appears. That is where probability and reward/risk are much more favorable for our specific swing trade strategy (which is NOT to be confused with day trades or investing).

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I hope you found my analysis and perspective helpful. Thanks for watching.

Is the Reward Worth The Risk At These Levels?

Where is the next meaningful support based on price structure? The low 24K area. This means if you buy Bitcoin right now with no regard for this risk, you are looking at a potential 2 to 3K pt profit vs. at least a potential 4K pt loss. Looking to win 2 while risking 4 makes absolutely no sense and is an unprofitable outcome in the long run. In terms of probability, Bitcoin needs to run to around 34K to justify this risk. What are the chances it can do this? There is no way to pin point a precise number but it is within reason to expect the risk of retrace to be very high at the levels, especially in the face of a psychological RESISTANCE area.

When markets get overly speculative or “frothy” they will look like nothing will stop them. Combine that with all the hype and exaggeration that follows across the internet, and you will be convinced this thing is going to 50K over the next 3 hours. As we regularly remind our members, high quality swing trade opportunities DO NOT look like this. High probability buy signals do not usually occur at peaks. This is the herd mentality driving this at the moment and only good for those who are in from much lower prices.

We had shared an aggressive swing trade at 24,150 a week ago and exited around the 26,300 area (upon the bearish pin bar). Was this a mistake? If you say yes because we missed another 3K of profits, you are looking at it from the eyes of the herd. We locked in our second 2K pt profit for the month, nothing wrong with that. Selling at the precise high or buying at the precise low is a very low probability game and one that amateurs consume themselves with.

So at this point we wait for a support. Will it be 24K? It might be, or price may find support sooner, but either way, we need to wait for a price structure and setup where we can measure a reward/risk that makes sense. If you would like to learn more about our strategy, visit:

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Enjoy your holidays and thank you for considering my analysis.

Bitcoin To 27K Projection?

IF Bitcoin can successfully break out from the 24K area (a decisive close above 24K) then it is within reason to anticipate price momentum to work its way toward the next resistance which is the 27,500 area. This scenario can take a week or more to unfold. The 27K and 32K areas are price projections based on the proportions of the previous bullish structure.

Along with that, there is a newly developed higher low formation established around the 21,8 area followed by an inside bar. While 24K is a resistance, price continues to linger in the area after presenting these bullish formations. These are signs of strength, and make for a stronger argument for the trend to continue. Higher lows often lead to higher highs.

So what can go wrong? Good thing you asked. One bearish scenario would be the failed break out or failed high formation which could develop upon a test of the low 24Ks. If this takes place, the selling pressure from all the new longs can lead to a much broader retrace that can lead to a test of the 21,200 area or even as low at 18,500. It may sound extreme, but if a larger magnitude Wave 4 develops here, Bitcoin can get stuck in a large consolidation for a couple of weeks or months.

We recently sent out a new swing trade idea in anticipation of the 24K break out. Our risk is defined by a break of 22K. If we see a clear sell signal sooner, we will also be prompted to exit and wait for a better setup.

Want to learn more about how our swing trade strategy works? We had a trade from 18,680 which was sent out on December 9th which reached our third profit target of 23,680 within a week for an average 2K profit. They all certainly do not work out this way, but when they do it is nice.

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Bitcoin Break Out Going To 24K?

We had 3 days to set up the orders before this trade became active. That is one of the great advantages to having a very specific set of rules that govern every aspect of a trade idea. The polar opposite of this is “reacting” to price moves, feelings, or the opinions of others.

At this point, the herd will be reacting. We set our profit targets the way we do in order to capitalize on these situations and reduce risk while we can. Buying AFTER the breakout is obvious carries a much HIGHER level of risk relative to the potential rewards based on the current market structure. Anyone that chases this type of move (and makes any money) will be reinforcing bad habits which will eventually lead to a negative performance over the long run.

So what to do now?

If you are in from a lower price, the best thing to do is lock a portion of your profit in and let a portion of the position ride until a sell signal appears. Either that or manually trail the stop (the low two candles behind the current). The advantage to this method is IF the current momentum continues at this rate, you will capture a larger portion of the move. The trade off is IF there is a sharp reversal, you will give back a significant portion of profit. There is no “perfect” way to do this, you must choose the method that best suits your personality.
If you missed this move, buying into the highs is usually NOT a good idea. The next support level in play is the 20K area (previous MAJOR resistance) and below that is the 18,500 area. Bitcoin may take some time for Bitcoin to cool off and test a support, either way, it PAYS TO WAIT.
We missed all 5 trade setups in November. The outcome if all 5 were taken would have been something like break even. We WAITED because we wanted a higher probability setup. Two of them appeared over the previous week. High quality setups take TIME to develop. Learn to recognize and WAIT for them.
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