If Bitcoin 17K Holds, Watch For 20K Break Out

These types of consolidations can be tricky and using specific criteria to enter these situations helps to minimize getting caught in false breakouts. Risk can be defined by the low 17K area which means it would serve as an effective location to place stop orders. IF the trade activates, we are looking at a maximum profit target of around 24K.
Everyone wants reward, but it is the RISK that you must pay most attention to. IF price clears 17K, then the low 16K area is the next potential support. IF that level is cleared, then we are looking  for the 13,850 area.
The high 13K area serves as an important level because if it is compromised it will prompt us to change our short term outlook to range bound from bullish. This level would also be attractive for position trades (longer time frame investing).
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Bitcoin Reversal Zone, Which Way From Here?

As I have written about previously, the 18,500 inflection point, along with the 20K psychological resistance seems to be asserting itself. Even though price technically made an all time high, it does not change the fact that the 20K to 20,200 area is a highly vulnerable location to put on new longs. If anything, these prices are a place to reduce risk, not assume it. The reason is the chances of a fake out are high.

As I write this, a new inside bar is developing. A break of the inside bar high would be a new buy signal, while a break of the inside bar low will be a new sell signal. Based on the high risk of this location, taking the buy signal is NOT attractive relative to the rules that we employ for our swing trade strategy. Just because a signal appears does not mean the risk is worthwhile.

A break of the inside bar low (around 18,300) makes more sense based on the probability of the resistance area in general. This scenario could be the start of a corrective leg that can lead back to the 16,300 area which is a notable support. Between 17500 and 16300 is where we are most interested in new long setup.

Our strategy focuses on broader moves which means high probability setups are infrequent, along with that, we do not short Bitcoin and have maintained that policy since the beginning. So we have no choice but to WAIT for the rules to be satisfied before putting on a new SWING trade.

To give you an idea of frequency, in the month of November there were 5 buy signals. We chose to stay out of all of them because the location was not adequate. 2 of the 5 would have reached potential profit targets of about 1K while 3 of them would have stopped out thanks to the sharp sell offs. Based on a reward/risk of about 1.5 (about our average), the net outcome from all 5 trades would be somewhere around break even. More trades do not equate to more profit.

This is why we look for opportunities across multiple markets and have been focusing a lot of attention on stocks. Want to know more? Check out our 7 day free trial

Is 18,500 The New Bitcoin Peak?

This level is significant because it is a projected resistance measured from the March low. Projected levels serve as possible turning points, but do not mean anything UNTIL price action confirms.

In this case, price retreated off the 18,500 area swiftly which now gives the level credibility. Does this mean a near term top is in? Not necessarily  because based on our strategy, there is no sell signal in place at the moment. It is still within reason for bullish momentum to test the high or push slightly higher.

While the broader trend is bullish, that does not justify a new swing trade long at these levels. Our strategy considers the broader location first when measuring probability and risk. We were not willing to take any risk in the 15Ks, we certainly are not going to put on a new swing trade in the 17Ks at this time.

We continue to WAIT for a retrace that offers a more attractive location, and better risk/reward in terms of a new swing trade long. NOW that 18,500 is established (a higher low), we will be looking for a higher low. This formation can reasonably develop in the high 14Ks or low 15Ks. IF Bitcoin can produce such a scenario, we will then be looking for a bullish reversal to go long. IF Bitcoin continues higher without testing a key support, then all we can do is adjust our levels until one is eventually tested. This is about high probability, low risk opportunities, not chasing profits or reacting to news.

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Please feel free to reach out with any questions.

Bitcoin 16K Area Carries Too Much Risk For New Long

The mistake to avoid is to buy into a break out attempt (a push into the 16 to 16,200 area) expecting follow through to something like 17K or higher. This is especially true if many “gurus” are touting such a move. While Bitcoin is still bullish on the bigger picture, there has been no significant retrace for weeks. This means there are a LOT of longs who will contribute to the selling pressure if a failed high develops off the low 16K area.
Our objective at this point is to WAIT for a retrace to a higher probability support level such as the 13,500 to 13,850 area followed by a long setup. It is important to wait for the setup rather than stepping into it at the level alone because enough momentum can lead to a test of the 12,500 support as well. Once a setup and confirmation pattern develops at either one of these levels, we will be prompted to share a new swing trade long idea.
Keep in mind, while buying such a break out is a low probability trade, it can occasionally pay off. These sporatec rewards reinforce bad habits that will be more costly in the long run. Just like playing a low probability hand in Poker, it may lead to a random win, but if you play such a hand regularly, it will cost way more than an occasional win is worth.
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It’s Still Too Early To Buy Bitcoin?

We shared two swing trades over the previous 3 week period and both reached all three profit targets. Our targets were strategically placed between 11,600 and 13,250 because of the historical resistance. Now that 11,600 to 12,300 has been cleared, we can anticipate a high probability of support.
Old resistance becomes new support and vice versa. I am not going to get into the psychological aspects of this phenomenon, but in this case it meets the first criteria that we look for when it comes to a trade idea and that is: attractive location.
The blue lines on my chart point to the ideal area where probability favors new buying activity and that is the low 12Ks. Will Bitcoin offer such an opportunity? That is up to Bitcoin. All we can do now is WAIT and see if it develops over the next week.
Can Bitcoin find support sooner? Yes, anything is possible, but it must provide a price structure that qualifies and allows for a way to define risk. Otherwise no trade.
This philosophy keeps us out of a lot of fake-outs, false signals, and other noise that many get confused by, especially when watching smaller time frames. This is why we only had 2 trades over a 3 week period and the next trade may take a week or so to develop. Waiting is the skill that most traders and investors struggle with.
This article was written by Marc Principato CMT, Executive Director at Greenbridgeinvesting.com.

Bitcoin: Buying Opportunity If It Breaks Higher Or Lower?

These triangle formations tend to serve as trend continuation patterns and since the broader trend is bullish, probability favors a break higher. It is just a matter of the right catalyst.

We entered a new swing trade long at 10,675 and have placed a stop in the low 10Ks to mitigate risk. IF price can take out the consolidation resistance of around the 10,850 area, it is possible to see a short squeeze into the mid to high 11Ks. The current minor bearish movements have a tendency to lure many shorts that are betting against the broader trend. When new buyers enter the market, these shorts will be forced to cover and it is this combination of buying activity that can move price higher quickly.

IF price breaks the consolidation support by clearing the 10,200 area, it is within reason to see a test of the 9850 support. We will be stopped out, BUT looking for a new long position in this area since any bullish reversal patterns here will establish a double bottom or failed low setup.

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BTC Analysis for 10/09/2020

The 9140 level is a key support

And must be maintained in order for our longer term outlook to remain bullish. IF price takes out this level, it will be signaling that Bitcoin is more likely in a broader range rather than a bullish trend.

Keep in mind, it is possible that price can establish a reversal formation before reaching the 9140 area. In which case we would be open to a new swing trade long as well. It all depends on the price formation and setup.

LINK, LTC, XTZ

Another important consideration is that many alt coins like LINK, LTC, XTZ, etc., are showing a similar pattern to Bitcoin which emphasizes that Bitcoin is still the sector leader. IF Bitcoin does not go higher, the entire space is likely to suffer as well. Point being that whether you are in ETH, LTC, or any other coin, essentially, it is all the same trade. This is especially important to understand when it comes to managing risk responsibly.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was written by Marc Principato CMT, Executive Director at Greenbridgeinvesting.com.

BTC Analysis – This Selling is Real or Just More Price Noise?

11,600 to 12,300 continues to hold Bitcoin back

11,600 to 12,300 continues to hold Bitcoin back, BUT at the same time, price has YET to take out any significant support levels. The 11K area continues to hold, and IF compromised, we are then looking at the 10,500 area for the next buying opportunity. It is important to not lose sight of the broader structure which is CLEARLY bullish. In situations like this, smaller magnitude reversal patterns such as the head and shoulder formation carry much less weight.
Also when there is significant selling off of a resistance level, often there is follow through. Meaning. after the initial bearish candle, the following candle often takes out the low and keeps going. At the moment price continues to hesitate ABOVE the 11K support which is a sign that the selling activity is nothing more than noise.
If price reverses again in the low 11Ks, it is more likely to squeeze higher, faster because of all the new shorts that pile in, while over reacting to a single bearish candle that is in the midst of a broader bullish trend. Confirmation of this would unfold when the 12K lower high is taken out. Squeeze momentum can quickly push the 12,300 resistance boundary.

If we are wrong

If we are wrong, and selling momentum increases over the next day or two, then we get stopped out. We measured our risk in advance and once the trade is in play, it is up to the market to do it’s job, or not.  The key take away here is do not be confused by a small magnitude pattern when the broader trend is still intact. If price sets up at the next support, we simply look to buy back in again.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
This article was written by Marc Principato CMT, Executive Director at Greenbridgeinvesting.com.

Chainlink Analysis – The Next Proportional Inflection Point

There was a recent buy signal around the 15.25 area and now price appears to be hesitating off the 18 area resistance. This type of price action is not unusual since it is possible that it can be unfolding into a Wave 4 consolidation. These are often NOT simple corrective patterns and can probe as low as the high of Wave 1, and still maintain a broader bullish outlook.
For our purposes, we would measure risk from the 12.85 area support, meaning if price closes below that, it is probably a good idea to limit risk or exit a losing trade and wait for a new buy signal. As long as price maintains stability between 12.85 and the 18, it can develop into the Wave 4 consolidation which often leads to trend continuation or Wave 5.
Based on a price projection measured from the current bullish structure in play, the 25 level appears to be the next proportional inflection point. This means if it breaks out, it would be a good idea to distribute targets between the 20 and 25 area.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was written by Marc Principato CMT, Executive Director at Greenbridgeinvesting.com.

Bitcon Analysis – Two Potential Scenarios

We assigned a low probability to this breakout attempt from the start because of previous price action around this location.

We had actually shared a buy signal in the form of a limit order at 11,500 while Bitcoin was flirting with the highs which had never filled. The limit order is now cancelled and we will wait for two potential scenarios:

1. The bearish momentum as a result of the fake out (all the longs who are caught from the top) follows through and takes out the 11K minor support. IF this unfolds, we will be watching for a test of the 10,400 inflection point. That is the ideal location for a new swing trade long in the event a buy setup develops there.

2. Bitcoin finds support around the low 11K area. IF a long setup appears, we will be open to an aggressive swing trade long, but will have to make risk adjustments because of the less than ideal location. We would consider a long here because the broader trend is bullish and long signals have a better chance of performing off of support levels (even if they are minor).

We will WAIT until one of those scenarios develops. These are within the rules of our swing trade strategy and taking a trade of any other reason would be trying to force it. Patience pays.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was written by Marc Principato CMT, Executive Director at Greenbridgeinvesting.com.

LINK/USD – Key Inflection Points

In these situations, markets will deceptively reward ineffective behavior (chasing) which can lead to a false sense of confidence. If you are in this coin, the best thing to do is reduce risk by taking partial profits until this thing produces a clear sell signal. If you are not in it, the best thing to do is WAIT for a retrace to the next support level.

Some key inflection points to consider: The 18 level is a proportional projection measured from the March low. Not only is it a psychological whole number, it is a location where the probability of selling activity is high. Even though there is no sell signal in place, this is the highest risk/lowest probability location to put on a new position. Buying into a potential top automatically puts you into a weak psychological position that often leads to exiting for a loss at the worst possible location (the low of the next support).

The 14.50 area is a minor support level as evidenced by the recent price activity in the area. A sharp retrace can find some support here, but it is important to WAIT for reversal structure in order to justify risk, because IF this level is cleared, the next inflection point is 11.50 followed by the 8.50 area. Can price retrace this far? It is possible, but the idea is to WAIT for such an opportunity, IF the market produces one. If not, the best thing to do is find a better opportunity in terms of reward/risk.

The herd mentality lures novice traders over and over again and is part of the market process. In order to win, you must not only be aware of it, but you must also know how to capitalize on it which requires counter intuitive thinking.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was written by Marc Principato CMT, Executive Director at Greenbridgeinvesting.com.

USDCAD Analysis – 06/08/2020

The clues of such an event have nothing to do with the economic situation and everything to do with the irrational tendencies of human nature.
The 1.3315 AREA is an important inflection point because it can lead to a failed low price formation. A failed low is when price goes proportionally lower than a previous low, but by a limited amount. The USDCAD is in such a location at the moment, even though bearish momentum continues. In order for us to justify taking risk in such a situation, we need to see a bullish reversal setup around the current level (1.3200s).
The reason why such a swing trade idea is attractive is because of the potential. It is proportionally within reason for this pair to revisit the 1.34 or 1.3500 areas within the next few weeks. As a short term momentum trader, all I am interested in is capitalizing on brief changes in momentum, no matter what the fundamentals or economists say.
In order to accomplish this, we measure extremes in sentiment as it expresses itself within price patterns. Right now the USDCAD is in such a high probability reversal location,  but we need a clear setup in order to effectively measure risk. Do not lose sight of the fact the current price action is part of a broad correction of the rally that lead to the April peak. Another compelling reason to anticipate a significant bullish retrace from current levels.
This article was written by Marc Principato CMT, Executive Director at Greenbridgeinvesting.com.

Is it a Good Time to Buy Bitcoin?

The swing trade took one month to play out and we had to sit through a lot of noise, but the price structure never turned bearish, even though it appeared questionable at times.

The question everyone is asking: now a good time to buy? And in terms of our long-only swing trade strategy, the answer is NO. Why not? It looks strong now? The risk of retrace after such a move is very high. This is NOT a location that offers attractive reward/risk, even though price appears to be pushing higher.

Now that we are out of our position, we WAIT for the next long setup and this begins with first anticipating an inflection point. At the moment, that point is the 10,400 area. This is the previous range resistance, which is now likely to act as a new support. IF price can retrace to this area, and produce a setup, we will be prompted to share a new swing trade idea. It may find support sooner, but only price action can provide the evidence and there is nothing at the moment except for vertical candles.

This is the herd mentality in action. No one was excited about Bitcoin at 9200, or 9K but now it looks strong again. Markets are irrational and driven by the forces of greed and fear which often lead to the wrong timing. The effective thing to do in such a situation is lock in profits while the buyers are plentiful, even if it is just a portion of the position. Effective behavior and following a set of rules are what produce results, NOT chasing a market after it has made a significant move. Want to learn more? Visit the link to my website which you can find on my profile page.

This article was written by Marc Principato CMT, Executive Director at Greenbridgeinvesting.com.

Silver -How to Participate in this Run?

Silver (and Gold) are not only traditional and historical currencies, they are also prime candidates for conspiracy theories and HYPE. Some things you may read or hear today: “There is no gold in Fort Knox”, or “There is absolutely NO physical silver available anywhere”, or “based on the Gold/Silver ratio, silver should be at 200 in a week or so”. And I’m sure there are many new ones as well, but these have been around for years, ATLEAST 10.

Meanwhile back in March, Silver was pushing lows at 12. My point is, DO NOT be consumed or motivated by any of these “logical” fundamental theories or infotainment oriented stories. Often these tactics are used to try and sell a product or service (buy these rare gold coins! or buy this special newsletter!).

The goal of this video is to provide a sensible perspective on how to participate in this run. Buying AFTER or into a vertical move of this nature is not favorable in terms of probability because often this type of momentum cannot be sustained. Instead, the more effective behavior would be to WAIT for an inflection point. Based on the recent price structure and history, that point is around the mid to low 18’s.

This price may or may NOT be reached when silver consolidates these current gains. Keep in mind, it is also possible for this market to find support higher, maybe around the 20 area BUT it would need to prove itself by producing a clear reversal structure and setup.

Another thing to consider is the instrument that you use to participate. CFDs are better for short term strategies because they often have a cost associated with them in the form of a “swap” or interest payment. This becomes costly over time which is why if you intend to invest over a longer period, there are a number of stock alternatives that will benefit: AG, FCM for silver and NEM, KL, GOLD, GDX for gold. There are also physical alternatives as well like minted coins and bars. I recently conducted a free webinar on the pros and cons of paper (derivatives like CFDs) vs. physical ownership (just visit my website found on my profile).

At this point the most effective thing to do is WAIT for the next retrace and measurable buying opportunity. Yes it requires patience in the face of a market that seems to be going higher without us, but patience has no risk and it’s free. Opportunities are infinite while our trading capital is not

This article was written by Marc Principato CMT, Executive Director at Greenbridgeinvesting.com.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis – 16/07/2020

And as yesterday’s forex session neared it’s close (Wednesday) we fully exited the position early at 1.1409. We were long from 1.1275. We usually try to let winners like this run unless the market provides a clear and compelling reason to exit sooner based on the RULES of our swing trade strategy.

So what changed? First, the session produce a bearish pin bar on the daily time frame. In and of itself that is not enough for us to make an adjustment or close a position. Making judgements on single candles often leads to getting faked out by price noise. What makes this pin bar compelling is WHERE it has printed. If you observe the peak established just a couple of weeks earlier, price did not successfully break beyond that resistance.

That failed breakout can be interpreted has many longs now caught, who will contribute to the selling pressure as they are stopped or margined out while new shorts are jumping in. Combined with the bullish reversal in the U.S. Dollar Index, you now have the recipe for an aggressive swing trade short. Why aggressive? It is counter trend which means IF we were to take this short, we would adjust our size and targets more conservatively in order to compensate for the risk of the broader trend reasserting itself.

Keep in mind, many in the forex world tend to believe you need to be an economist to successfully maneuver in these markets. This is nothing more than a misconception. All financial markets are driven by the same two irrational forces of greed and fear which means they can be timed by recognizing patterns of price “behavior”. We can trade the EUR/USD, Bitcoin, Gold, or stock the same way because we have only one objective in mind: to capitalize on short term price momentum.

This article was written by Marc Principato CMT, Executive Director at Greenbridgeinvesting.com.

Nasdaq 100 Analysis for 09/07/2020

There are two factors that we evaluate: price location and relative strength (not to be confused with RSI). Today, the NSX closed on it’s high and almost took out yesterday’s high as well. How much longer do you think the markets can run like this without a significant retrace? In terms of location, the risk of retrace is HIGH and even though it is possible to push somewhat higher, the potential is very likely to be limited. This means this is a time to be more cautious, defensive and selective, NOT “feeling safe”.

Why am I so contrarian here? There is no structural evidence that a broader retrace is in play, or even beginning. The red flag can be spotted when you compare other markets like the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 which are not pushing new highs like the NSX. The S&P in particular still has significant resistance around the 3200 area which means a proportionally large number of stocks are NOT participating in this race to the moon. A healthy rally is one where they are more or less in sync.

Keep in mind, I am not calling for a bear market, or a trend reversal. I am anticipating a healthy retrace and the nearest level of support on the NSX is the 10,200 area. If that is taken out, the next inflection point is around the 9750 area (historical market peak) and IF that is taken out, 9150 is next.

That is a significant move from current levels, but that is what we must consider in terms of risk. The retrace can come out of no where, and a chart will NOT provide any kind of “predictive” value until supports are taken out, and some kind of clear bearish structure is established which is a process that can take days or even weeks. In any case, the herd mentality is often the strongest at market turning points, learn to anticipate it, not participate in it.

Bitcoin – Testing the High 9K?

Price has tested near the range low and established a price point at 8830. This stopped us from a recent swing trade idea that we shared around the 9625 area. As most novice traders will consider a stop out a negative event, we actually look upon it very positively. Why? Stops SAVE money in the long run.

What if Bitcoin went to 8K on some news? I can’t tell you how many times a stop loss order has saved us tons of money. If you get frustrated by a stop, that is a sign that you have not been in this game very long. Another thing that makes the stop easier for us to manage is we only had 1% of our capital at risk. Often traders misunderstand sizing and take positions that are proportionally too large for their account, making a stop out much more painful financially AND emotionally.

On Monday, our criteria for a new swing trade long was met and it became active upon the break of the 9225 level. Since then, it has been somewhat noisy, but this is in line with the character of a consolidation. What makes this position compelling is the fact that price found support off the 8830 area and did not even come close to the 8500 inflection point (sign of strength). Secondly, the reward/risk is much better since the position was taken closer to the range low rather than the middle of the range.

Testing the high 9Ks or low 10K area is reasonable and our initial target is strategically placed with this in mind (we use 3 targets). Can Bitcoin still fail? Sure, but a lack of momentum should NOT be confused with the nature of the broader trend which is BULLISH. In order to change our outlook, price needs to first compromise the 8500 support. Until then, we will continue to focus on managing risk and placing greater weight on buy signals, especially if they appear near key levels.

Gold Attempts to Break Out

For those who bought the break out, this is not a comfortable position to be in, even though the broader price structure and fundamentals favor a bullish move. The reason? The reward/risk is NOT attractive here for a short term swing trade.

Do not let fundamentals or hype fool you or force you into some useless opinion. No matter how bullish gold “should” be, it can still very easily retrace and test of the middle of the broad consolidation that it has been gyrating within for weeks. Previous retracements have gone as low as 1670 and 1700 respectively even in this bullish gold environment. The bearish pin bar is not to be confused with a trend reversal, but it is pointing to potential bearish momentum at least for the next couple of days or going into early next week.

IF the bearish momentum follows through, it is within reason for price to test as low as the 1720s which would provide a much more attractive location for a new buying opportunity. Since we have only 1/3 of our recent XAUUSD swing trade (two targets were reached), we will let the position ride and see how it plays out. IF a new buying setup appears around the support level I just mentioned, we would be open to increasing our current position by 1/3 and look for another range break out attempt

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was written by Marc Principato CMT, Executive Director at economic calendar

GBP/USD – What needs to Happen in Order to Justify a New Long Swing Trade Idea.

A very common mistake is to buy into such an adverse move too early and take unnecessary pain or worse get stopped out. In this video I explain the inflection points that are favorable in terms of probability and what needs to happen in order for us to be able to justify a new long swing trade idea.

The first support area is around 1.2480. This qualifies because it has demonstrated previously that traders reacted there (old resistance area, now new support). There was even a hint of buying within the previous day’s candle (Friday) as it closed with small wick. This is not enough to buy into because while the trend is bullish, the momentum is still bearish and can lead price much lower. To avoid a premature entry our strategy requires evidence that others are buying as well and this comes in the form of a pin bar or inside bar. IF one of these setups does not appear, we simply continue to wait.

The second inflection point is the 1.2280 area. This is the key support relative to the bullish structure measured off of the recent swing low established in March. This is the level that allows us to define the trend as bullish, and to assign more weight to buy signals. Again, IF price reaches this area, it will prompt us to WAIT for a setup like I explained earlier. IF prices closes below this area, then we stand aside a reevaluate until the market can provide more clarity.

Keep in mind, we are ONLY interested in short term momentum. This has NOTHING to do with the economic situation or fundamental story behind this pair. Forex is notorious for emphasizing complexity and often makes it seem like you need a PHD in economics in order to participate effectively. This is a common misconception since ALL markets are typically driven by the irrational behaviors of greed and fear. By the time we recieve any “fundamental” information, it is obsolete in terms of acting on it. Technical analysis compensates for this by offering ways to measure the most up to date information there is and that comes in the from of price action.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was written by Marc Principato CMT, Executive Director at Greenbridgeinvesting.com.

Gold Price Analysis – Possibly to Break the 1800 Area in the Following Week

Barring any Dollar bullish surprises, gold is showing clear bullish momentum going into the event but as I regularly remind our followers, DO NOT CHASE.
In this video I review a recent swing trade idea that we shared for the gold CFD (XAUUSD) which neared its first target in less than a day. This idea required a LOT of waiting for criteria which offered reward/risk that makes sense and it begins with knowing your price structure and levels, fundamentals will NOT provide much value for short term timing.

Technically, gold is strong and has been for months with a clear demonstration of higher lows and higher highs. Recent price action has been tricky because it has been gyrating in a 100 or so point range (1760 to 1650 area). This can be a painful hold IF you succumb to all the hype that always pushes unreasonable targets and conspiracy theories when gold is on its highs.
The trend is bullish, but in order to time effectively, probability of location comes into play. For us that was the 1650 area range low. Price recently touched 1670 and that was the first piece of the puzzle for our long idea. The second piece was the setup where we can measure reward/risk from.
Once that fit our criteria, THAT is when we can justify a new position. Keep in mind we recently had a similar situation (May 24th) that we let go and it appeared to run without us, but missing moves doesn’t cost anything.
IF Gold can maintain its current momentum and stay above 1700, it is likely to test the 1750 area over the next few days and possibly break into the low 1800s in the following week. Current prices (1715) is not a place to chase, either wait for a better price or step aside and wait for a better opportunity.