Corn Prices Hit A 5 Week High, Will Cotton Prices Break The 70 Level?

I will be recommending a bullish position if prices close above 3.85 while then placing the stop-loss at the contract low which was hit on September 9th at 3.65 as the risk would be $1,000 per contract plus slippage and commission as the chart structure is outstanding due to the low volatility that we have experienced over the last several months.

Corn prices are now trading above their 20 day moving average but slightly below their 100 day which stands at major resistance at 3.91 as the USMCA trade agreement will be passed this week as that is a very bullish fundamental factor coupled with the fact that the Chinese trade agreement has been written in stone as I think the bottom has occurred in the grain market as these are very bullish factors for corn prices which still historically speaking are depressed.

The large money managed funds are heavily short corn while adding another 30,000 contracts last week as they believe lower prices are ahead, however I disagree with that situation so play this to the upside as the risk/reward is in your favor.

TREND: HIGHER–MIXED 

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY: INCREASING

Cotton Futures

Cotton futures in the March contract is currently trading higher by 45 points at 67.25 reversing some of the losses that we witnessed last Friday as prices are still hovering right near a 5 month high.

The large money managed funds are still short this commodity by 3,000 contracts as they still believe lower prices are ahead, however I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 66.60 level and if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss under the November 21st low of 63.70 as an exit strategy as the chart structure will start to improve in next week’s trade therefor the monetary risk will also be reduced.

Cotton prices are trading above their 20 & 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the upside with the next major level of resistance around the 68.00 level as I think that could be tested in this week’s trade as optimism that China will become a more active buyer of U.S cotton should be supportive in the coming weeks ahead.

At the current time I have several bullish recommendations as I think the commodity markets in 2020 will have significant rallies from these depressed levels as I do think with the emergence of all these trade deals occurring the bearish situation has ended as the risk/reward is in your favor to the upside.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY: INCREASING

This article was written by Michael Seery (CTA—COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR)  www.seeryfutures.com

Silver Prices Higher 4th Day In A Row

As  the whole precious metal sector has caught fire over the last several days and looks to move even higher in my opinion. I will be recommending a bullish position on Silver, if prices close above the December 4th high of 17.41 while then placing the stop loss under the 10-day low standing at 16.56 as the risk would be around $1,700 per 2 mini contracts plus slippage & commission.

Fundamentally speaking the precious metals settled higher Wednesday after the Fed signaled it will keep interest rates steady for the foreseeable future thus reducing concerns about a rate hike.

The FOMC voted 10-0, the first unanimous decision since May, to keep the fed funds target range unchanged at 1.50%-1.75% and said interest rates are “appropriate” to support growth and jobs.

Silver prices are now trading above their 20 day moving average but still below their 100 day as the trend as mixed as we have been consolidating over the last 5 weeks, however I do think the downside is limited so look to play this to the upside as the volatility is starting to come to life again which is a terrific thing to see.

TREND: MIXED 

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: INCREASING

This article was written by Michael Seery (CTA—COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR)  www.seeryfutures.com

Stay Long Coffee

The trading session continuing its bullish momentum as this market looks to head higher in my opinion as the volatility should increase tremendously in the coming weeks ahead.

As I have talked about in previous blogs I am currently not involved, however I certainly believe that higher Coffee prices are ahead as the drought in the country of Brazil which is the largest producer in the world continues to accelerate as I think the next level is 150 which could happen in the next couple of days as the volatility looks to explode to the upside in my opinion.

If you are long a futures contract I would continue to place the stop loss under the 10-day low as an exit strategy which currently stands at 117.95 as the chart structure will start to improve on a daily basis, therefore, lowering the monetary risk.

The Brazilian Real hit a 1 month high against the U.S dollar as that is also a supportive fundamental factor, but weather conditions in the country of Brazil is the main factor to dictate short-term price action as this looks like the situation that occurred in 2014 when prices almost doubled in a matter of weeks could be happening again so stay long as I see no reason to be short.

TREND: HIGHER 

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: HIGH

This article was written by Michael Seery (CTA—COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR)  www.seeryfutures.com

Corn Higher On Possible Trade Agreement

However, President Trump announced today that a possible trade agreement with China could be at a hand pushing prices higher.

One very bullish fact is that the USMCA agreement looks to be at hand in the coming months ahead as Mexico is our largest importer of U.S corn in the world as we need some bullish fundamental news to push prices higher in my opinion.

Heading into 2020 I think the commodity markets will surge to the upside as they are certainly depressed especially compared to how strong the U.S economy is and if you take a look at the equity market they have hit another all-time high in today’s trade as President Trump I believe will continue to inflate all asset classes in the coming years ahead.

If you are a farmer I certainly would not be selling at these price levels as demand will come back for this product in the coming months ahead as I want to play this to the upside as the downside is very limited in my opinion.I am will be looking at a possible bullish position if prices break the 4 week high which was created on December 3rd at 3.85 while then placing the stop loss under the contract low which was hit on September 9th at 3.65 as the risk would be around $0.20 or $1,000 per contract plus slippage and commission.

This article was written by Michael Seery (CTA—COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR)  www.seeryfutures.com

Coffee Prices Hit A 2 Year High

At the current time as I have talked about in many previous blogs I am not involved, but I do think higher prices are ahead as I am certainly not recommending any type of bearish position and if you are in a long futures contract I would continue to place the stop loss under the 10-day low.

Which now stands at 115.50 as an exit strategy as the chart structure will improve on a daily basis therefore the monetary risk will be reduced substantially in the coming days ahead.

As I have written about in previous blogs I want you to take a look at the 2014 chart as coffee prices exploded in the month of January due to a drought occurring in the country of Brazil and if that situation develops once again you will see higher prices develop quickly as the volatility certainly has expanded to the upside so stay long as there could be significant room to run.

TREND: HIGHER 

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: INCREASING

This article was written by Michael Seery (CTA—COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR)  www.seeryfutures.com

Looking To Buy Silver

I will be recommending a bullish position if prices break 17.41 while then placing the stop loss under the 10-day low standing at 16.76 as the risk would be $1,300 on 2 mini contracts plus slippage & commission as the chart structure is excellent therefor the risk/reward is in your favor in my opinion.

Silver prices are still hovering right near a 4 month low as prices are trading right at their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average as prices are starting to look cheap in my opinion especially historically speaking so wait for the break out to occur before entering as trading in a choppy market is treacherous in my opinion.

At the current time I do not have any precious metal recommendations as I was stopped in gold earlier in the week so keep a close eye on this market as we could be involved soon as the volatility certainly has come to life which is a great thing to see in my opinion.

TREND: MIXED 

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY: INCREASING

This article was written by Michael Seery (CTA—COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR)  www.seeryfutures.com

Soybeans Higher 3rd Day In A Row, Coffee Prices Hit New Highs

Soybean Futures—Soybean futures in the January contract is trading higher for the 3rd consecutive session up another $0.04 at 8.82 a bushel bouncing off of major support rallying in my opinion on oversold conditions as prices have fallen out of bed over the last couple of weeks. Optimism about a possible Chinese trade agreement has sent prices up in the last several days, however I still remain bearish as prices are still trading under their 20 & 100 day moving average is the trend remains to the downside.

I have been recommending a bearish position from around the 9.23 level over the last several weeks and if you took that trade the stop loss has now been lowered to 9.09 & in tomorrow’s trade will be lowered once again to 9.04 as the chart structure will continue to improve on a daily basis therefor the monetary risk also be reduced.

This is my only grain recommendation as I’m keeping a close eye on a possible bullish position in corn so continue to place the proper stop loss as the grain market is sitting in limbo until some type of agreement with China comes about as we will have more clarity on that situation come December 15th.

TREND: LOWER 

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY: LOW

Coffee Futures—Coffee futures in the March contract continues its bullish momentum to the upside up another 325 points at 124.50 a pound hitting a 12-month high as this is the strongest soft commodity at the current time.

Presently I am not involved, however I’m certainly not recommending any type of bearish position as that would be counter-trend trading and if you are long a futures contract place the stop loss under the 10-day low which stands at 114.15 as an exit strategy, however the chart structure will start to improve on a daily basis therefor the monetary risk will be reduced.

Coffee prices are trading far above their 20 and 100 day moving average as this trend is strong to the upside as fundamentally speaking a supportive factor for arabica coffee Coex Coffee International on Wednesday said that Brazil’s coffee crop will be closer to 54-55 million bags well below the USDA’s forecast of 58 million bags.

There are major concerns in key coffee-growing regions in the country of Brazil which is the largest producer in the world about a lack of rain as I have witnessed this before and it will explode to the upside and if it continues as the volatility will increase substantially as all you have to do is look at the 2014 chart as that was the last drought that this commodity has experienced so stay long.

TREND: HIGHER 

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: INCREASING

This article was written by Michael Seery (CTA—COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR)  www.seeryfutures.com

How High Are Coffee Prices Going?

I am currently not involved in this market as the chart structure did not meet my criteria to enter into a position, however I am certainly not recommending any type of short position as I remember what happened in 2014 when a drought hit the country of Brazil sending prices sharply higher in a matter of weeks and that situation could be developing once again.

Fundamentally speaking current arabica coffee supplies continue to decline which is also providing support to coffee prices after ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories fell to a 1-1/4 year month low of 2.12 million bags on Friday. Weather concerns in Brazil are another supportive factor for coffee prices after Monday’s data from Somar Meteorologia showed that rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest arabica coffee growing region, was only 57.9 mm over the past week, or 78% of the historical average, which may curb Brazil’s coffee yields.

TREND: HIGHER 

CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

VOLATILITY: INCREASING

This article was written by Michael Seery (CTA—COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR)  www.seeryfutures.com

Soybeans Higher Break 7 Day Losing Streak

Harvest in the United States has been wrapped up as we will now focus on the 2020 crop as I have been recommending a bearish position from around the 9.23 level and if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss above the 2 week high which now stands at 9.17, however the chart structure will improve on a daily basis therefor the monetary risk will be reduced significantly in the coming days ahead.

Soybean prices are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average as this trend is strong to the downside as I still believe as I’ve stated in many previous blogs I think prices will test the contract low which was hit on September 9th at 8.65 in the coming days ahead as a trade agreement with China still has not been written in stone.

At the current time this is my only grain recommendation as soybean meal continues to head lower putting pressure on soybean prices so stay short as picking a bottom is extremely dangerous in my opinion.

TREND: LOWER 

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: LOW

This article was written by Michael Seery (CTA—COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR)  www.seeryfutures.com

Will Gold Prices Crack $1,400?

I had been recommending a bearish position in the December contract from around the 1,460 level as it is time to exit due to expiration as prices are right near 1,457 while rolling over into the February contract at 1,464 and if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss above the 10 day high standing at the November 20th high of 1,486 as an exit strategy.

Gold prices are trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend remains to the downside as prices are right near major support, however for the bearish momentum to continue prices have to break the November 12th low of 1,452 in my opinion as that could possibly happen in this weeks trade.

If you take a look at the daily chart the downtrend line remains intact as fundamentally speaking all the action remains in the S&P 500 which is higher once again as I’m also recommending a bullish position in that market as money flows continue to exit gold so stay short while placing the proper stop loss.

TREND: LOWER 

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

This article was written by Michael Seery (CTA—COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR)  www.seeryfutures.com

Are Cocoa Prices Going Higher?

If you are long a futures contract I would place the stop loss under yesterday’s low of 2594 as an exit strategy as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time, however for the bullish momentum to continue prices have to break November 18th high of 2694 in my opinion. Last Friday’s Commitment of Traders data (COT) showed that funds boosted their long cocoa positions by 15,528 contracts in the week ended Nov 19th to a 5-year high of 60,818 contracts which could provide fuel for long liquidation pressure.

Fundamentally speaking reduced output from Ghana, the world’s 2nd largest cocoa producer is supportive for cocoa prices after the Ghana Cocoa Board on Sep 13th cut its Ghana 2019/20 cocoa production estimate to a 3-year low of 800,000 MT from a previous estimate of 950,000 due to an outbreak of the swollen shoot cocoa disease that has affected about 16% of Ghana’s cocoa crop.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

This article was written by Michael Seery (CTA—COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR)  www.seeryfutures.com

How Low Are Soybean Prices Going?

Soybean Futures

Yesterday’s crop progress report stated that 94% of the crop has been harvested and that should be wrapped up by next week as we will now focus on the 2020 acres number and that should give us an estimate of what next year’s production numbers might be.

I have been recommending a bearish position from around the 9.23 level & if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss above the 2 week high standing at 9.23 as the chart structure will start to improve in next week’s trade therefor lowering the monetary risk. If you have been following my previous blogs you understand that I continue to think that prices will retest the contract low which was hit on September 9th at 8.65 possibly in next weeks trade as technically and fundamentally speaking this market remains weak.

Soybean prices are trading far below their 20 and 100 moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as this is my only grain recommendation currently so stay short and continue to place the proper stop loss.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: LOW

This article was written by Michael Seery (CTA—COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR)  www.seeryfutures.com

Weekly Forecast: Cutton, Sugar, Rice and Orange Juice Futures

Cotton Futures

Cotton futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 66.69 while currently trading at 64.00 down about 270 points for the week as prices have now hit a 5 week low.

I have been recommending a bearish position from around the 65.00 level and if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss at 67.13, however the chart structure will improve in next weeks trade therefor the monetary risk will be lowered.

Cotton prices are trading under their 20-day but still slightly above its 100 day moving average which also stands at major support around the 63.00 level as I think that area will be touched in next week’s trade.

One of the main problems for cotton is the fact that we can’t come up with a trade agreement with China as they are the number one importer of U.S cotton in the world and until that situation is cemented look for lower prices ahead. At the current time my only other soft commodity recommendation is a bullish sugar trade as I do think cotton prices have topped out in the short-term so continue to play this to the downside while placing the proper stop loss making sure that you risk only 2% of your account balance on any given trade.

Sugar Futures

Sugar futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 12.73 a pound while currently trading at 12.74 basically unchanged for the trading week continuing it’s extremely low volatility.

I have been recommending 2 bullish positions with an average price of 12.67 and if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss under the 10-day low which now stands at 12.46 & in Monday’s trade that will be raised to 12.51 as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time due to the fact that prices have been stuck in the mud.

Sugar is still trading slightly above its 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend remains higher as we need some fresh news to dictate short-term price action as the Brazilian Real has hit a 4 year low against the U.S dollar as that has a negative influence on prices. The next major level of resistance stands at the 13.00 area as I will be looking at adding more contracts at that level due to the fact that the stop-loss is so tight therefor the risk/reward is in your favor so stay long.

Orange Juice Futures

Orange juice futures in the January contract settled last Friday at 100.50 while currently trading at 99.00 down about 150 points for the week as prices are still stuck in a tight 4 week consolidation.

I will be recommending a bullish position if prices break the 101.65 level while then placing the stop loss under the contract low which was hit on October 30th at 96.10 as the risk would be around $850 per contract plus slippage and commission.

We are starting to enter the very volatile winter season for orange juice prices as a possible frost could hit the State of Florida sending prices sharply higher as that situation has occurred in the past as I do think we are in a bottoming-out pattern as the downside is limited.

Volatility at the current time remains low as I don’t think that situation is going to last much longer as the weather conditions at the current time remain ideal, but it is a long growing season so look to play this to the upside.

TREND: MIXED

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY: LOW

Rice Futures

Rice futures in the January contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 11.89 while currently trading at 12.23 up about $0.34 for the trading week as prices are right near a 5 week high. I had been recommending a bearish position from around the 11.82 level getting stopped out around 12.10 earlier in the week while at the present time I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for another trend to develop.

Rice prices are now trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend has turned higher, however the chart structure is terrible therefor the risk/reward is not in your favor as prices rallied straight up over the last week. The volatility has finally come back to life in this historically volatile commodity as my only grain recommendation is a bearish soybean trade which continues to grind lower on a daily basis.

S&P 500 Futures

The S&P 500 in the December contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 3118 while currently trading at 3111 down about 7 points for the trading week breaking a 4 week winning streak.

I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 3006 level and if you took that trade the stop loss has now been raised to 3074 as the chart structure will also improve in next week’s trade therefor the monetary risk will be reduced.

For the bullish momentum to continue prices have to break the November 19th high of 3132 in my opinion as earnings season has been very solid coupled with the fact that we are entering the holiday markets which generally push prices higher.

Expectations for an outstanding Christmas season is predicted as the U.S economy is by far the strongest in the world with historically low unemployment and an excellent stock market helping fuel the economy so stay long as I still think the 3200 level is realistic come year end.

The S&P 500 is trading far above its 20 & 100 day moving average as this is the strongest trend to the upside out of all commodity sectors as we continually grind higher on a weekly basis despite this recent setback.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: LOW

The Article was written by Michael Seery (CTA—COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR)