Morning Market Updates – GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair’s rally is still in progress and edges higher towards the 1.3429 level. Intraday bias remains on the upward direction at this point. A firm break at the 1.34297 resistance level will confirm resumption of whole rebound from the 1.3362 bottom level. In such case, the pair would target projection at the 1.3445 level next. On the downside, the pair trading below the 1.3445 minor supports will turn intraday bias neutral first. But the near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as support holds.

In the bigger picture, the current development suggests that a rebound from the 1.3378 level is developing into a medium term rise. There is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we will continue to treat such a rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, a further rise is expected towards the 1.3429 level. Breaking at the resistance levelis needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, a further rise is now in favor.

The recent run low on the sterling has been stopped and showed some consolidation. A huge accelerating bull run has seen the market burst through the key high at the 1.3429 level to see what looks to be a huge breakout above the high of these levels.

The market has been limited by the resistance band by these levels on numerous occasions in the past few candles but the weakness of the dollar has driven a breakout. The pair chasing the sterling higher would be a move filled with a significant reward. The pair’s oscillator trading at the 59 level is higher than it has been in recent times and rises further. The pair’s momentum is clearly incredibly stronger. The pair staying with the Bull Run may be profitable in the very near term. However, if profit taking hits, it could be a sharp reversal. We keep watching for an exhaustion signals.

It is also notable that the entirety of current session took placeon the pivot bands. The bulls were looking to consolidate further more before the sharp gains of today, but again the move looks to capitalize.The pairclosing back inside the resistance level would now be a corrective signal and also the oscillator was close to crossing back above the 50 level before today’s gains. A move back below the 50 level on the daily timeframe would now be corrective signals. The pair closing level back inside the band would now be a profit taking signal. The four hourly chart supports around the breakout at the 1.3362 level.

The GBP/USD pair opens today’s trading with a clear positivity to move away from the bullish trend line that appears on four hourly charts. As the EMA50 shall be the first key level for support to protect the price from suffering more losses. While the pair’s stochastic begins to provide some positive overlapping signals on the four hourly time frames.

Therefore, these factors encourage us to continue suggesting the bullish trend on the intraday and short term basis. The pair’s main targets begin at the 1.3429 and extend to reach 1.3445 levels. This will take into consideration that the pair breaking at the 1.3429 level will begin the expected rise. This willpush the price to start bullish correction on the intraday basis.

The pair’s expected trading range for today is between the 1.3378 supports and 1.3445 resistances levels.

Expected trend for today: Bullish

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Morning Market Updates – EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair recovers after drawing support from the 1.1836 level and intraday bias is turned upside again andthe short term top is formed at the 1.1863 level on the four hourly charts. A further correction is expected as long as the 1.1836 level holds. The pair trading below at the 1.1836 minor supports will turn bias to the downside towards the 1.1813 level. We keep expectinga strong support at current levels to bring a rebound.

In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at the 1.1836 level and a further sustained break at the 1.8787 level will pave the way to key level towards the 1.1903 retracement level. While a further rise from support levels might be strong with no confirmation developing into a long term uptrend. Hence, we continue be cautious on strong resistance at the 1.1903 level to limit upside direction. But for now,in case of pull back,the pair’s medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as the 1.1863 support level holds

This support area has proved time and the area is considered as a strong hold for the pair which has never been broken on a closing basis. The market provides a positive note and there is a band of support that has been formed at this area. Although there have been further marginal gains thus far, the threat of a breach has not yet gone away. The bulls will now be looking to push back above the high of the 1.8787 level. This phase of trading over the past couple of session has turned into a consolidation.This looks to be a move to allow the bulls to recharge for the next level to push higher. The pair’s near term corrections offers a chance to buy.

The EUR/USD pair keeps its stability above the key support the 1.1863 level after attempting to break which has been unsuccessful so far. This makes us continue with our bullish pattern, as the mentioned support represents potential area. While the pair’s minor bullish channel appears on the four hourly charts.

The pair’s time frame forms potential continuation of bullish pattern. Therefore, the pair breaching at the 1.8787 resistance level willrepresent the pair which hasactivated a positive effect.

Therefore, we are partially confirmed to breach one of the above mentioned levels to detect the next targets clearly. The pair breaching at the resistance level will push the price to resume the main bullish trend again, to start the positive targets towards the 1.8787 and extend to 1.1903 levels. While breaking of the pair at the support level will push the price to extend the bearish correctionand its next correctional target is located at the 1.1813 level.

The pair’s expected trading range for today is between the 1.1836 supports and 1.8787 resistances levels.

Expected trend for today: Bullish

 
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Morning Market Updates – USD/JPY

A rejection at the top is formed at the 113.66 in the USD/JPY pair. Intraday bias is turned neutral first with the pair trading at the 113.66 resistances intact. A further decline is expected. A decisive break of the 113.23 will target at 112.96 levels next. However, a break of the 113.66 level will dampen our bearish view and turn bias back to the upside for the 113.93 level instead.

In the bigger picture, the current development argues that the USD/JPY pair has defended at the 113.66 level with resistance intact. We favor the case that fall from this levels must be seen as a correction pattern. Breaking of the pair at the 113.23 level will further affirm this bearish case as a larger decline from the 113.66 level is not completed. However, on the other hand, a firm break of the 113.23 level will indicate a further downside in the upcoming session.

The recent run higher on the greenback has been incredible. A huge accelerating bull run has seen the market burst through the key until now. The market has been limited by the resistance band at the 113.66 level on numerous occasions in the past candles but the dollar has lost its momentum and driven a breakout. Chasing the yen here would though be a move filled with the significant rewards. The pair’s momentum is clearly incredibly strong. The pair staying with the bearish run may be risk in the very near term. However, if profit taking hits, it could be a sharp reversal. We keep watching for exhaustion signals the pair seems to be already exhausted. On the oscillator, it is also notable that the entirety of today’s session took place outside the 28.0 standard deviations.

The bulls were looking tired before the sharp gains, but again the move looks stretched. The pair closing back inside the 50 levels would be a corrective signal. A move back below towards the 28 level on the four hourly chart would now be a corrective signals.

The four hourly chart support turned resistance around the breakout at the 113.23 level. The pair returns to test the bearish channel’s resistance after leaning on the intraday bullish support line that appears on four hourly charts. The pair accompanied by its stochastic reach to the correction areas and waits to motivate the price to rebound bearishly to break at the 113.23 levels. This offers to active the negative effect of the bearish pattern formed by the mentioned intraday channel followed by pushing the price to continue the main bearish trend.

Therefore, we believe that the chances are valid to trade negatively in the upcoming period conditioned by the price stability below the 113.23 level. This reminds you that our main targets begin at the 112.96 and extend to 112.693 levels.

The pair’s expected trading range for today is between the 113.39 resistances and 112.96 supports levels.

Expected trend for today: Bearish

 
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Morning Market Updates – XAU/USD

Gold the commodity extended its rise higher in the days ahead. However, we should beware of pullback threats. On the downside, the pair’s support comes in at the 1263.99 level where a break will turn attention to the level. The pair trading further down would cut through here and will open the door for a move lower towards the new lows. The pair trading below could trigger further downside pressure targeting new low level. Conversely, the pair’s resistance resides at the 1270.49 level where a break will aim at the 1274.51 level. A turn above there will expose the 1276.99 level.

The pair’s resistance stands further out at this level. Its four hour oscillator is bullish pointing higher suggesting further strength but has been rising in the 75.0 zone. All in all, Gold looks to continues to go further higher.

Gold has further improved as can be seen by the move above the resistance at the 1266.48 level. The precious metal is trading above the support area. The pair’s four hourly charts support can be found at these levels. The pair’s expected to show further rise.

In the long term, the pair’s trend is positive. A further upside is very likely support is located at the 1263.99 level which has not been broken and stays above this level until now. The strong support can be found at the new found support area.

The bulls would regain control on a decisive move back above the pivot band at the 1266.48 level. However, this is a significant medium term barrier which would complete a new pattern. The resistance also coincides with the previous resistance now turned support and capped the upside aside from a brief intraday spike to these levels at the beginning of the day. The pair’s recent candle was much in favor for the bulls with a consolidation at a high of these levels as the momentum indicators specifically the stochastic also approach key areas where they have been holding above the 75.0 levels.

The four hourly chart shows a decent uptrend has been broken with the resistance of the 1263.99 level increasingly key near term. The four hourly oscillators consistently is rising back above would reflect a stronger bullish trend, but the support is key area. The pair trading below at the 1263.99 support level puts at the 1259.98 level back in sight.

Gold price continues begin to rise testing the resistance line that appears and the price finds support with positive pressure against the intraday trading to confirm the continuation of the bullish bias in the upcoming sessions.

In general, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend on the intraday and short term basis as long as support level remains intact. The pair breaching at the 1266.48 level will reinforce the expectations of achieving our positive targets that start at the 1274.51 and extend to 1276.99 levels.

The pair’s expected trading range for today is between the 1263.99 support and 1274.51 resistances levels.

Expected trend for today: Bullish

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Morning Market Updates – GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair’s rally is still in progress edging higher towards the 1.3367 level. Intraday bias remains on the upside direction at this point.  A firm break of the 1.3367 resistance level will confirm resumption of whole rebound from the 1.3323 bottom. In such case, the AUD/USD pair would target projection at the 1.3438 level next. On the downside, the pair trading below the 1.3367 minor supports will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as support holds.

In the bigger picture, the current development suggests that rebound from the 1.3323 level is developing into a medium term rise. There is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we will continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, a further rise is expected even further to the 1.3367 level. The pair breaking at the resistance level is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, a further rise is now in favor.

The recent run low on the sterling has been stopped and showed some consolidation. A huge accelerating bull run has seen the market burst through the key high at the 1.3392 level. This looks to be a huge breakout above the high of these levels.

The market has been limited by the resistance band by these levels on numerous occasions in the past few candles but the weakness of the dollar has driven a breakout. Chasing the sterling higher would be a move filled with a significant reward. The pair’s oscillator trading at the 50 level is higher than it has been in recent times. The pair’s momentum is clearly incredibly stronger and staying with the bull run may be profitable in the very near term. However, if profit taking hits, it could turn to be a sharp reversal. We keep watching for the exhaustion signals.

The entirety of current session took place on the pivot bands. The bulls were looking to consolidate further more before the sharp gains of today, but again the move looks to capitalize and a close back inside the resistance would now be a corrective signal. The pair’s oscillator was close to crossing back above the 50 level before today’s gains. A move back below the 50 level on the daily would be corrective signals and closing level back inside the band would be a profit taking signal. The four hourly charts supports around the breakout at the 1.3394 level.

The AUD/USD pair opens today’s trading with a clear positivity to move away from the bullish trend line that appears on four hour chart. As the EMA50 shall be the first key level for support to protect the price from suffering more losses. While the pair’s stochastic begins to provide a positive overlapping signal on the four hourly time frames.

Therefore, these factors encourage us to continue suggesting the bullish trend on the intraday and short term basis. The pair’s main targets begin at the 1.3438 and extend to reach 1.3482 levels. Taking into consideration, the pair breaking at the 1.3394 level will begin the expected rise and push the price to start bullish correction on the intraday basis.

The pair’s expected trading range for today is between the 1.3367 supports and 1.3482 resistances levels.

Expected trend for today: Bullish

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Morning Market Updates – EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair has been rejected once again with a strong momentum. The pair continued to have resistance which has been on hold and now slowly indicates a downside movement. This has helped to drive the pair to break below the 1.1798 level. This means that the EUR/USD pair was trading at its highest has now been stopped. As there seem to be little reason for the euro to continue to push higher. Therefore, buying into the intraday dips remains viable. The daily momentum indicators are all strongly configured.

A decisive break has paved the way to the 1.1761 level handle next. On the downside, the pair trading below the 1.1761 minor supports will turn intraday bias neutral and bring some consolidations. But the pair trading downside of retreat should be contained above this support and bring a further rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, a firm break from the resistance level further affirms the pair’s medium term reversal. This will remain the favored case as long as resistance level holds.

The pair found a solid resistance and forced it to bounce lower to trade below the 1.1798 level. This point out that the close accomplished below this level keeps the chances valid to achieve the preferred general slide to downward.

The pair’s stochastic enters the 40.0 levels to provide further negative signals accompanied with the price action to support the negative scenario. Taking into consideration, the pair breaking below the levels might push the price to visit the channel support which appears with pair trading below 50EMA and 100SMA.

The pair has settled within resistance is trading below the 1.1798 level. Until it gets a positive momentum to support and resume the bullish trend, the pair finds it hard to breach this level and forces the price to trade in the sideways range.

In general, the pair’s negative overview remains valid on the intraday and short term basis, unless the resistance level has broken.  This might push the price above the 1.1798 level.

The pair’s expected trading range for today is between the 1.1798 resistance and 1.1742 support areas.

Expected trend for today: Bearish

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Morning Market Updates – AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair’s rally is still in progress and edges higher to the 0.7651 level. Intraday bias remains on the upside direction at this point. A firm break of the pair at the 0.7651 resistance level will confirm resumption of whole rebound from the 0.7632 bottom level. In such case, the pair would target projection at the 0.7686 level next. On the downside, the pair trading below the 0.7651 minor supports will turn intraday bias neutral first. But, its near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as the 0.7651 support level holds.

In the bigger picture, the current development suggests that rebound from the 0.7632 level is developing into a medium term rise. There is no confirmation of trend reversal and we will continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. A further rise is expected even further to the 0.7686 level. Breaking of the pair at the 0.7651 resistance level is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, a further rise is now in favor.

The recent run on the Aussie dollarcontinued showing some consolidation. A huge accelerating bull run has seen the market burst through the key high at the 0.7651 level. This looks to be a huge breakout above the high of these levels should be in favor for Aussie. The market has been limited by the resistance band on numerous occasions in the past few candles but the dollar has driven a breakout. Chasing the Aussie higher would be a move filled with significant reward. The oscillator at the 18 level is rising than which has been in recent times. The pair’s momentum is incredibly stronger. The pair staying with the Bull Run may be profitable on thenear term basis. However, if profit taking hits, it could be a sharp reversal.

We keep watching for an exhaustion signals. It is also notable that the entirety of current session which took placeon the pivot bands. The bulls were looking tired before the sharp gains today, but the move look stretched. The pairclosing back inside the resistance level would now be a corrective signal.

The dailytimeframes would now be corrective signals. The pair closing at the level back inside the band would now be a profit taking signal. The pair’s four hourly charts support around the breakout at the 0.7651 level.

The AUD/USD pair opens today’s trading with a clear positivity to move away from the bullish trend line that appears on four hourly charts. As both the MA istrading below the price action, we shall support to protect the price from suffering more losses. While the pair’s stochastic begins to provide a positive overlapping signals on the four hourly time frames.

Therefore, these factors encourage us to continue suggesting the bullish trend on the intraday and short term basis. The pair’s main targets begin at the 0.7651 and extend to reach 0.7686 levels. This takes into consideration that the pair breaking at the 0.7651 level will begin the expected rise and will push the price to start bullish correction on the intraday basis.

The pair’s expected trading range for today is between the 0.7651 supports and 0.7686 resistances levels.

Expected trend for today: Bullish

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Weekly Technical Outlook: EUR/USD ; Market Forecasts for December 12TH – December 22ND

  • Resistance level 1862
  • Pivot Level 1800
  • Support Level 1738, 1.1699, and 1.1661

Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair attempted to breach at the 1.1862 level. This keeps the stability of the daily close below until end of the week. This keeps the correctional bearish trend scenario valid until now and waits to resume the bearish wave that targets at the 1.1699 followed by 1.1661 levels on the near term basis. It is important to note that retest of the 1.1738 levels will complete conformation. This will push the price to test the most important support for the short term trading at the 1.1699 level directly before any new attempt to change directions. This reminds you that these levels represent the next trend keys with the price action signaling the two bar reversal and bearish momentum at negative stability below resistance area. The pair’s stochastic settle clearly within the 42.0 areas to support the attempts to gather the negative momentum.  This confirms the pair’s attempt to reach the waited target. Therefore, our bearish trend expectations will remain valid and active on the short term basis. The targets begin by surpassing the 1.1738 level to open the way towards targeting the next main station. Being aware that breaching the levels once retested level will turn the price to the bearish channel again which will lead the trading to the down side on the short and medium term basis.

Economic

  • Consumer Price Index, Consumer Price Index
  • Labour cost
  • NAHB Housing Market Index, Building Permits Change, Housing Starts Change, Existing Home Sales
  • EIA Crude Oil Stocks change, Initial Jobless Claims, Gross Domestic Product Annualized
  • US Government Shutdown Limit, Core Personal Consumption Expenditure, Durable Goods Orders

Area of Interest

  • Strong resistance at 1.1862 area and closed below resistance levels.
  • Bearish two bar reversal rejection on trend line.
  • Price action closed below trend line and oscillator below 42.0 levels indicating shift in momentum.

At Flip Area on Daily time frame resistance levels.

 
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Morning Market Updates – NZD/USD

Intraday bias in the NZD/USD pair remains upward for the moment and another rise is mildly in favor. Breaking of the pair at the 0.7001 level will target a test on the 0.7038 high. But we’d be cautious on a strong resistance from there to limit an upside movement and will bring another fall to extend the corrective pattern.

On the downside, the pair breaking at the 0.6980 level will resume the decline from the 0.6980 level and will target a medium term downtrend. In the bigger picture, a further rise from the 0.6980 medium term bottom is seen as corrective pattern. The current development suggests that it might be completed with waves up to the 0.7001 level. Breaking of the pair at this level should see the pair rise to the 0.7038 level which will firm this bullish case.

A decisive break at the 0.6980 key cluster support confirms and brings retest of this level. In case, a further rise from the 0.6980 level will resume and extend a strong resistance which can be seen at the 0.7038 level to limit upside. Having spent the past two sessions with the upward rally, the kiwi bulls continue with the forward momentum on the current strong bull candle and breaks out to close above the 0.6980 level. This is not considered as a good support area. The pair also breaks the downtrend dating back since the second week of this month and takes the market above this level for the first time since early of this month.

If the bulls confirm this breakout above the 0.6980 level, then the upside for a continued recovery will be open. This would then open the key high at the 0.7038 level. The pair’s four hourly chart shows a strong configuration on momentum and corrections will now be seen as a chance to buy. The reaction to today’s early unwind will be interesting. The pair trading at the support level above the 0.6980 comes in.

A failure below support at the 0.6980 level would reopen the bear control once more. The NZD/USD pair has tested the key support at the 0.6980 level. This kept its stability above it showing some bullish bias and attempt to resume the main bullish trend. The pair waits to breach at the 0.6980 level to get rid of the negative pressure and continues to rise on the short term basis. Therefore, we will keep our bullish overview conditioned by holding above the 0.6980 level. The pair breaching at this levels will push the price towards the 0.7038 level that represents our first main target.

The pair’s expected trading range for today is between the 0.6980 support and 0.7038 resistance levels.

Expected trend for today: Bullish

 
For more detailed analysis from the author, please visit NoaFX.

Morning Market Updates – NZD/USD

Intraday bias in the NZD/USD pair remains bullish for the moment. Another rise in the pair is mildly in favor. Breaking of the pair at the 0.6939 level will target a test on the 0.7023 level high. But we’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit an upside and bring another fall to extend the corrective pattern. On the downside, pair breaking at the 0.6836 level will resume the decline and will target medium term downtrend. In the bigger picture, a rise from the 0.6836 medium term bottom is seen as continuing pattern.

The current development suggests that it might be completed with waves up to the 0.6939 level already. The pair breaking at this level should see the pair rise to the 0.7003 level which will firm this bullish case. A decisive break at the 0.6939 key cluster supports confirms and brings the retest of this level. In case, a further rise from the 0.6836 level will resume and extend a strong resistance which can be seen at the 0.6939 level to limit upside.

The kiwi bulls have taken another step forward, having spent the most of past two weeks with the downward rally. The current strong bull candle broke out to close above the 0.6939 level. This is not only a good support area, but also breaks an important resistance. The pair continues with an uptrend and takes the market above the key resistance for the first time since early of this month.

If the bulls can confirm this breakout above the 0.6939 level, then the upside for a continued recovery will be opened. This would then open the key high at the 0.7003 level. The four hourly charts show a strong configuration on momentum and corrections will be seen as a chance to buy. The reaction to today’s early unwind will be interesting with the pair supporting above the 0.6920 level. A failure below support the 0.6920 level would re-open the bear control once more.

The NZD/USD pair tested the key support at the 0.6920 level. This kept its stability above it showing some bullish bias which attempt to resume the main bullish trend. We keep waiting to breach at the 0.6939 level to get rid of any negative pressure and continue to rise on the short term basis. Therefore, we will keep our bullish overview conditioned by holding above the 0.6920 level. The pair breaching at this levels will push the price towards the 0.6939 level that represents our first main target.

The pair’s expected trading range for today is between the 0.6920 support and 0.7003 resistance levels.

Expected trend for today: Bullish

For more detailed analysis from the author, please visit NoaFX.

Morning Market Updates – XAG/USD

During the major events, Silver has found some support which is in recovery mode for the day after bears showed some signs of exhaustion. The pair has bounced back at key supports at the 15.644 level after some fresh recovery attempts and looks to rally showing a strong rejection at the zone.

A sustained break at the 15.837 level is needed to signal further recovery and expose the key barriers which are expected to limit recovery attempts before broader bulls resume. The metal is looking to generate a stronger signal for near term direction. The bulls would regain control on a decisive move back above the pivot band at the 15.837 level. This is a significant medium term barrier which would complete a base pattern.

The pair’s resistance also coincides with the decline and capped towards an upside direction. The recent candle was stronger for the bulls with a rise at a high from at the 15.644 level as the momentum indicators specifically. The pair’s stochastic also approach key areas where they continue to hold and signal there may be a rise staying above at the 20 levels looking to hold strongly.

The pair’s four hourly chart shows a recent decline which may be completed and look towards an uptrend which has been broken now with the resistance at the 15.837 now increasingly near term. The four hourly stochastic is consistently rising above the 20 level would reflect a strong bullish trend and its four hourly chart is dropping below neutral but the 15.644 support level is key.

The pair trading below the 15.644 support level puts 15.224 level back in sight. Silver price fluctuates at the intraday bullish channel’s support that appears on chart. This keeps its stability above the most important support at the 15.644 level and gets a continuous positive support by the price action. While the pair’s stochastic shows a clear rising signals. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend on the intraday and we shall wait for price action surrounding this area. The pair has been testing the support areas before any new attempt to rise at short term basis.

The pair’s price increases very fast reaching the pivot line which targets to begin at the 15.837 and then extends to 16.00 levels. We shall wait for price action surrounding the area. The pair breaking this level will push the price to test the 16.030 areas before any new attempt to rise.

The pair’s expected trading range for today is between the 15.644 support and 15.956 resistance levels.

Expected trend for today: Bullish
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Weekly Technical Outlook: USD/JPY ; Market Forecasts for December 11th – December 15th

  • Resistance level 113.88, 114.20, 114.39
  • Pivot Level 113.56
  • Support Level 113.04

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Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair closed weekend is trading above the 113.04 levels which gets a good support base. This reinforces the expectations of continuing the bullish bias from the side way movement which is in place for quite some time now. This provides signals for the price recovery in the upcoming days. The pair is supported by stochastic positivity that appears clearly over brought on the daily time frame.  The pair rising above the 82.0 levels remains bullish for the moment and the pair is trading on rebound after testing barriers. This makes the trading to settle now at the support area with an upward move. Some consolidations would be seen with bullish momentum with two bar reversal. A further rise is expected from current levels on the new found support area and beginning of the new trend. The pair’s first main target is located at the 113.88 level. This points out that the pair breaking at the 113.88 level besides holding above it will push the price to resume its bullish momentum. The pair’s next target located at the 114.20 level.

Economic

  • JOLTS Job Openings, Monthly Budget Statement, Consumer Price Index
  • Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
  • Initial Jobless Claims, Retail Sales, Industrial Production
  • Tertiary Industry Index, Foreign investment in Japan stocks, Foreign bond investment
  • Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook, Tankan Large All Industry Capex

Area of Interest

  • Strong support at 113.04 areas and closed above rebound of trend line.
  • Bullish momentum with two bar reversal above the support area.
  • Price action closed above rebound of trend line and oscillator rising above 82.0 levels indicating shift in momentum.
  • At Flip Area on Daily time frame support levels.

For more detailed analysis from the author, please visit NoaFX.

Morning Market Updates – XAU/USD

The XAU/USD’s pair looks like its bouncing higher after failing to break below the 1246.30 level. As can be seen on the four hour time frame, the pair’s bouncing from these support area that has been supportive since the start of last weekend which was broken but quickly has bounced back strongly above the support zone.

What makes this setup even more interesting is that the pair’s stochastic is rising above the 50.0 area. The pair is currently testing the area of interest at the 1249.61 level territories. This is higher than an average chance that resistance may form here and send the pair lower again. The pair’s opportunity to jump in on the new trend has emerged. It will be interesting to see the current levels which align with pivot level which will confirm that the trend is here to stay for some time. We keep waiting for the pair to actually make some highs and to confirm a new trend.

A follow-through buying interest beyond resistance and its recovery could get extended towards the very important 100-day SMA region. A convincing move beyond the key 50-day EMA hurdle was triggered and rallied towards a strong horizontal resistance.

The price resumes its positive attempts and fluctuates near the critical resistance level. As we mentioned previously that the pair breaching this level is considered the most important motive to reinforce our bullish trend continuation scenario.

At the same time, we must be aware that the pair’s stability above the support area is considered the major factor that keeps these anticipations which will initially target our levels.

As we mentioned, the pair holding above this level will be the confirmation factor for more bullish trading on the intraday and short term basis. Its price action is developing a possible expanding channel. The pair’s support level could be gained around the 1246.30 pivot area.

Bullish Divergence is joining on the volume which is a good sign that the bulls might be preparing for a rally. On the flip side, the pair trading at the 1246.30 region now seems to protect the immediate break below the commodity which would turn vulnerable to head back towards new lows support near the 1242-1240 levels round figure mark.

The pair’s expected trading range for today is between the 1246.30 support and 1260.33 resistance levels.
For more detailed analysis from the author, please visit NoaFX.

Morning Market Updates – USD/CAD

At this point, a further fall is still in favor on the USD/CAD pair for support. The pair trading with 1.2867 resistance level intact has been rejected at this level and its outlook remains bearish. Breaking of the pair at the 1.2834 level will resume the medium term fall from current levels and will target next long term at the 1.2781 level. However, a firm break at the 1.2867 level will indicate trend reversal and will turn outlook bullish.

In the bigger picture, the current development suggests that the pair trading at the 1.2867 resistance level could not be taken out firmly as down trend as the form levels look to extend. There are various interpretations of the price actions. But in any case, the pair’s medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as the 1.2867 resistance level holds. A down trend in the pair could extend to the 1.2781 level. However, a further break of resistance will indicate that the USD/CAD pair has successfully defended again and will turn outlook bullish for new highs.

The dollar after the good run seems to break after the rally on pair seems to have exhausted and continues to slow down. The down days are seen by some bear candles specially the pin bar rejection at the resistance level. The pair struggles to make any headway and turns in effect into consolidation days. The current bearish candle was another indication where the bears come into picture again and bulls failed to make any sustainable impact, before once more resuming the decline in session to come. The pair’s daily momentum indicators have all now taken on a corrective outlook with the stochastic falling below the 80 level and the lines have crossed lower. The pair is back into the old pivot band so it will be interesting to see the reaction. The likelihood is that the support of this level which has often been seen as an inflection point will now be tested. The four hourly chart shows the resistance at the 1.2867 level is bolstered as a key level which was initially an area of near term overhead supply. The USD/CAD pair shows more sideways trading to settle near the resistance level and the price keeps its stability below this level. This keeps the negative pressure valid for the upcoming period. We keep waiting to test the pair reminding that breaking this level is required to confirm extending the bearish wave towards the 1.2834 followed by 1.2781 levels.

Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend for today unless we witness a clear breach and hold with a daily close above the 1.2867 level.

The pair’s expected trading range for today is between the 1.2781 support and 1.2867 resistance levels.

Expected trend for today: Bearish

 
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Morning Market Updates – USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair settles at the support area and continues to have an upside momentum gaining strength with the 112.144 support level intact. A further rise is expected. A sustained break of medium term channel resistance will argue that correction is already completed with support holding the area. Breaking of the pair at the 112.387 level will confirm this bullish case and will target a test on the 112.780 level next.

On the downside, however, the pair breaking at the 112.144 level will suggest rejection from the channel resistance and will turn bias to the downside. In the bigger picture, a further rise from this level is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from the support levels. It’s unclear whether this second leg has completed at this level or not. But the pair’s medium term outlook will be mildly bullish as long as support level holds and there is prospect of breaking ahead. Meanwhile, breaking of the pair at the 112.780 level will bring retest of the 112.780 level high. The dollar remains neutral as the market continues to fall away. The pair’s upcoming days are characterized by strong bull candles. Whilst any recovery are beset with struggles to make any headway and will turn in effect into consolidation days. The current candle was another consolidation day where the bulls rise to make some impact, before resuming the rise earlier in the day.

The daily momentum indicators have all taken on a corrective outlook with the stochastic both rising above the 50 level. The pair is back into the old pivot band so it will be interesting to see the reaction. The likelihood is that the support level which has often been seen as an inflection point will now be tested. The pair’s four hourly chart shows the resistance at the 112.387 level is bolstered as a key level which was initially an area of near term overhead supply. The USD/JPY pair has bounced bullishly after the 112.145 level formed a solid support against the price recent negative attempts and stuck between the mentioned support level. This represents correction levels consecutively and makes us suggest witnessing sideways trading between these levels until the price manages to breach one of them.

Note that the pair breaking the mentioned resistance will push the price to resume the bullish trend that its main targets begin at the 112.780 and extend to 113.173 levels. The pair breaching the resistance level represents the key to extend the pair’s gains to reach the previously recorded top as a next main station.

The pair’s expected trading range for today is between the 112.145 support and 113.173 resistance levels.

Expected trend for today: Bullish

 
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Morning Market Updates – USD/JPY

At this point, a deeper decline is expected in the USD/JPY pair with the 112.95 resistance level intact. A further decline from the 112.95 would target at the 112.16 levels. At this moment, we’re still favoring the case of medium term corrective pattern from the 111.65 level that has completed at the 112.95 level already. Hence, we keep looking for bottoming below at the 112.16 to bring another fall. On the upside, the pair breaking at the 112.95 resistance level will indicate that the rise from the 112.46 level is completed and will turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, the medium term rise from the 111.65 is not completed yet. It should resume after corrective fall from the 112.95 completes. Breaking of the pair at the 112.95 resistance level will likely resume the rise to projection of the 113.25 level from the support area at first. A firm break there will pave the way to projection at the 113.26 level. This will be the key level to decide whether the pair’s long term up trend is resuming. However, a firm break at the 112.46 support level will dampen this view and will turn focus back to the 112.16 level instead.

The dollar remains under pressure as the market continues to fall away. The pair’s down days are characterized by strong bear candles. Whilst any recovery in the upcoming days are beset with struggles to make any headway and will turn in effect into consolidation days. The recent candle was another consolidation day where the bears gained to make any sustainable impact, before resuming the decline overnight. The daily momentum indicators have all now taken on a corrective outlook. The pair trading with the stochastic both falling near the 50 level and the lines having crossed lower. The pair is now back into the old pivot band at the 112.46 level so, it will be interesting to see the reaction. The likelihood is that the support of the retracement of this level which has often been seen as an inflection point will now be tested. The four hourly chart show the resistance at the 112.95 level is bolstered now as a key level. The pair trading with the 112.46 levels initially an area of near term overhead supply.

The USD/JPY pair returns to test at the 112.46 level and is still trading below it. As long as the price is below this level, the pair’s bearish overview will remain valid for today. The pair is supported by the negative pressure formed by the EMA50 which has been tested and holding it. We keep waiting to head towards the 112.16 level initially.

On the other hand, the pair breaching at the 112.96 level will open the way for recovery attempts and return to the main bullish trend again as the pair’s positive targets are located at the 113.26 followed by 113.47 levels.

The pair’s expected trading range for today is between the 112.16 support and 113.26 resistance levels.

Expected trend for today: Bearish

 
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Morning Market Updates – XAU/USD

Gold has extended its recovery higher in the upcoming days and we need to beware of pullback threats. On the downside, the support comes in at the 1270.65 level where a break will turn attention to the level. A further down will cut through here and will open the door for a move lower towards the new lows. The pair trading below here could trigger further downside pressure targeting the new low level. Conversely, the pair’s resistance resides at the 1277.48 level where a break will aim at the 1283.41 level. A turn above there will expose the 1286.32 level and resistance stands at this level. The pair’s four-hour oscillator is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength rising in the 24.0 zone. All in all, Gold looks to recover further higher.

Gold has further improved by the move above the resistance at the 1277.48 level. The precious metal is now trading above the support area. The four hourly chart support can be found at this levels and it is expected to show further increase.

In the long term, the pair’s trend is rater positive and a further upside movement very likely to happen. The pair’s support is located at the 1273.81 level which has been broken and stays above this level until now. A strong support can be found at the new found support area.

The bulls would regain control on a decisive move back above the pivot band at the 1277.48 level. However, this is a significant medium term barrier which would complete a new pattern. The pair’s resistance also coincides with the previous resistance now turned support and capped the upside aside from a brief intraday spike to the 1273.81 level at the beginning of the day. The recent candle was much in favor for the bulls with a consolidation at a high of this level as the momentum indicators specifically the stochastic also approach key areas where they have been holding above the 20.0 levels. The four hourly chart shows a decent uptrend has been broken now with the resistance at the 1277.48 level increasingly key near term. The four hourly oscillators are consistently rising back above the 20 level and would reflect a stronger bullish trend. The pair trading below the 1273.81 support puts 1270.65 level back in sight.

Gold price continues to rise and begins testing the resistance line that appears. The price finds support with positive pressure against the intraday trading to confirm the continuation of the bullish bias in the upcoming sessions.

In general, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend on the intraday in short term basis as long as the 1273.81 level remains intact. The pair breaching at the 1277.48 level will reinforce the expectations of achieving our positive targets that start at the 1283.41 and extend to 1286.32 levels.

The pair’s expected trading range for today is between the 1273.82 support and 1283.41 resistance levels.

Expected trend for today: Bullish
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Weekly Technical Outlook: USD/JPY ; Market Forecasts for December 4th – December 8th

  • Resistance level 113.350, 114.258, 114.820
  • Pivot Level 112.441
  • Support Level 110.971

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Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair closed weekend is trading above the 110.971 levels which gets a good support base and later bounced of this levels nicely. The pair continues to indicate further rise which reinforces the expectations of continuing the bullish bias from the side way movement. The pair is in place for quite some time now as seen on the chart price as respected this level. We can expect the same this time as well providing signals for the price recovery in the upcoming days. The pair is supported by stochastic positivity that appears clearly moving upward on the daily time frame. The pair rising above the 45.0 levels remains bullish for the moment with pair trading on rebound after testing barriers.  This makes the trading settle now at the support area and made some upward move.  Some consolidations would be seen with bullish momentum with two bar reversal and a further rise is expected from current levels on the new found support area. The beginning of the new trend and the first main target located at the 113.350 level. This points that the pair breaking at the 113.350 level besides holding above it will push the price to resume its with bullish that its next target located at the 114.258 level.

Economic

  • Trade Balance, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, ADP Employment Change
  • Continuing Jobless Claims, US Government Shutdown Limit, Unemployment Rate
  • Nonfarm Payrolls, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
  • Foreign bond investment, Coincident Index, Leading Economic Index
  • Current Account, Eco Watchers Survey

Area of Interest

  • Strong support at 110.971 areas and closed above rebound of trend line.
  • Bullish momentum with two bar reversal above the support area.
  • Price action closed above rebound of trend line and oscillator rising above 45.0 levels indicating shift in momentum.
  • At Flip Area on Daily time frame support levels.

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Morning Market Update – XAU/USD

Silver is in recovery mode for the day after the bears showed signs that exhausted and bounced back at key supports at the 16.420 level. After some fresh recovery attempts under way and the pair looks to rally showing a strong rejection at the zone. A sustained break at the 16.479 level is needed to signal further recovery and expose the key barriers. The pair is expected to limit recovery attempts before broader bulls resume. The metal is looking to generate a stronger signal for its near term direction.

The bulls would regain control on a decisive move above the pivot band at the 16.479 level.  This is a significant medium term barrier which completes a base pattern. The resistance also coincides with the decline and capped the upside. The recent candle was stronger for the bulls with a rise at a high from the 16.42 level as the momentum indicators specifically the pair’s stochastic also approach key areas where they continue to hold. The four hourly charts show a recent decline that may be completed and look towards an uptrend which has been broken with the resistance of the 16.42 level increasingly key near term. The four hourly stochastic consistently is rising above the 10 level and would reflect a strong bullish trend. The four hourly charts are dropping below neutral but the pair at the 16.42 support is key.  The pair trading below the 16.34 support level puts 16.18 back in sight.

Silver price fluctuates at the intraday and the pair’s bullish channel support appears on chart keeping its stability above the most important support at the 16.42 level. The pair gets a continuous positive support by the price action, while stochastic shows clear rising signals.

Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend on the intraday. We shall wait for price action surrounding area. This pair has been testing the support areas before any new attempt to raise short term basis. The price increases very fast reaches the pivot line which targets to begin at the 16.42 and extend to 16.62 levels. We shall wait for price action surrounding area and breaking this level will push the price to test the 16.79 areas before any new attempt to rise.

The pair’s expected trading range for today is between the 16.42 support and 16.62 resistance levels.

Expected trend for today: Bullish

 
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Morning Market Update – NZD/USD

A strong resistance in place at the 0.6951 level in the NZD/USD and intraday bias turned bearish. At this point, a deeper fall is mildly in favor as long as 0.6884 minor resistance holds below the 0.6884 will target the 0.6797 support level. A decisive break there will affirm the bearish case of medium term reversal. Nonetheless, breaking of the pair at 0.6884 will suggest that the pull back from 0.6951 is completed and will turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, while the medium term of the pair rebounds strongly but the NZD/USD pair hit a strong resistance from the long term falling trend line. The outlook turned a bit bearish and will turn neutral first. On the downside, a decisive break at the 0.6864 key support will argue that rebound from the 0.6951 level has completed. The corrective structure of rise from the 0.6864 level will in turn suggest that long term up trend is now completed. The pair breaking at the 0.6864 low should then be seen. On the upside, a break of the 0.6884 support level turned resistance will revive the case of trend reversal and target of 0.6951.

The dollar remains under some control over the kiwis as the market continues to fall away. The down days are characterized by strong bear candles. Whilst any recovery upcoming days are beset with struggles to make any headway and will turn in effect into consolidation days. A current strong bearish candle was another indication day where the bears gained to make sustainable impact, before once more resuming the decline in the day. The daily momentum indicators have all now taken on a corrective outlook. The pair trading with the stochastic falling below the 20 level having crossed lower. The pair is back into the old pivot band at the 0.6886 level so it will be interesting to see the reaction. The likelihood is that the support of these levels which has often been seen as an inflection point will now be tested. The four hourly charts show the resistance at the 0.6864 level is bolstered now as a key level, with initially an area of near term overhead supply.

The NZD/USD pair returns to test the 0.6830 level and still below it. As long as the price is below this level, our bearish overview will remain valid for today, supported by the negative pressure formed by the EMA50 which has been broken and holding below it, waiting to head towards the 0.6830 level initially.

On the other hand, the pair at the breaching 0.6886 level will open the way for recovery attempts and return to the main bullish trend again, as the positive targets located at the 0.6951 followed by 0.6972 levels.

The pair’s expected trading range for today is between the 0.6797 support and 0.6884 resistance levels.

Expected trend for today: Bearish

 
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