2017 – The Bitcoin Year, But not Only

Sitting in a coffee shop with a friend and hear a conversation about Bitcoin has become routine in 2017, part of the mainstream and perhaps the real normalization of the economy during 2017. Bitcoin made us forget that on January, the American people chose the most eccentric president in the history, Bitcoin made politics look small and insignificant and it made equities’ records high disappear in the shadow of Bitcoin mania.

Although relatively Bitcoin is still a small market and hasn’t received the corporate and governmental recognition, Bitcoin echoes are a result of the currency potential and what it represents.

Ironically, Bitcoin’s conversations, whether in a coffee shop or on computer screens are similar as one side stands for the acceptance of the new coin while the other one rejects the coin with the bubble argument and the fact that a digital currency system without a centralized control cannot work.

Still, it’s quite exciting to be part of history and Bitcoin is already history, Cliche but true, and that is one of the reasons why common people without any understanding of the crypto, economy and financial markets joined this phenomenon. Be part of something. Bitcoin will be taught in the future in universities, schools and TV programs whether it will be accepted as a legitimate payment method or will be discovered as the biggest bubble in history. Obviously, the next step would be to get it out of the mainstream, out of the bubble zone in order to be legitimized as a currency system. That way, the currency will no longer be an interesting conversation in a coffee shop or an exotic investment but a legitimate instrument that can transform the economic system. That’s a known social behavior, a cycle, and perhaps it will happen in the upcoming years.

Talking of bubbles, then, we all heard the comparison between the Bitcoin mania to the Tulipmania bubble back in the 16th century. The Tulipmania has been associated with us as an economic phenomenon that destroyed the economy and demolished people’s lives. However, there is growing evidence that the Tulipmania is more a myth than the actual reality.

Over the past years, some researchers revoked the myth: In 2006, the economist Earl Thompson published his research ‘The Tulipmania: Fact or Artifact’ claiming that the tulip mania bubble is mostly fiction as the spot prices (these are the actual prices) were stable and option prices rose exponentially. Researchers claim that there are no actual stories in the archives about people that were involved in the Tulipmania bubble and lost their possession. For us, we can say that we have seen an irrational increase in prices of Bitcoin and other cryptos. So far, only good stories. Bubble or not, you name it.

Bitcoinism?

As a matter of fact, cryptocurrencies and in particular Bitcoin sparked a new conversation and that is the biggest achievement of Satoshi Nakamoto (or whoever it is that created cryptos). The common man knows for years that only a country or a governmental entity can issue a currency. It is a country responsibility to back up a currency, and so far it has been done with a natural resource such as gold. Maybe you noticed that in many paper bills there is an agreement by the government to preserve the value of money for the citizens that will use the currency.

You don’t have that in Bitcoin. Any economical obstacle, recession, inflation, deflation, you name it – you can’t complain about it. No one promises you that. Decentralized, for better or worse.

The attempt to form one single currency for the world was not a revolutionary idea that popped up suddenly, some might say it is a master plan to better control the economy. Personally, those things make me know how little I know. Bitcoin was rising from the underground movement of Anarchism, opposing the authorities and the financial system, or maybe not…

However, instead of one currency, there are currently over 1324 cryptocurrencies and the number is growing. It is unfinished business and someone must organize this industry. Even though some will convince you it’s the best investment, it is not yet a reliable economic system or currency.

Blockchain, the technology that activates Bitcoin, is the invention that one can no longer ignore. There are many inventions that changed the world but also were rejected at the time of birth. Light bulbs, umbrellas, the telephone, typing machines, taxis, computers, coffee, and the toilet seat cover are all necessary for our basic life but were rejected by some people at some point of time. On the other side, some inventions stormed the world at the time of release but vanished and did not have any effect. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are still on the scale of acceptance. Blockchain, on the other hand, officially received its recognition in 2017.

The truth is that no one knows the future of Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies and the economy in general. The economy that forms our daily life is relatively new and probably not the best economic system. Bitcoin is mysterious and mysterious attracts the attention, headlines, central bankers’ comments, and money.

Bitcoin is a statement, an alternative to the current economic system that controls our life. It’s not the price that matters but the idea. The price is just a reflection of the global public opinion towards the economic system. If everyone was happy with the system, no one would really buy a digital, with no physical qualities coin. You buy Bitcoin, you buy an idea.

2017 is without a doubt the year of Bitcoin. And Blockchain and ICO’s and Ethereum and Ripple and Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Gold and IOTA… All cryptos’ prices are speculative, volatile and unreliable but also reflect people’s excitement of a new market and a new system. The upcoming year will be crucial for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. It broke the first step of entering the mainstream and coffee shops conversations, now it’s time to pay for a cup of coffee with Bitcoin or other cryptos. That’s the next step and only time will tell how Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies face it.

The Week Ahead – Non-Farm Payrolls, RBA, Yellen and Draghi

As we enter the first week of October, a busy week is upon us with important economic events that might add volatility to markets.

Here are the main economic events of the upcoming week:

US Non-Farm Payrolls

The crucial US non-farm payrolls will be released on Friday at 12:30 GMT. Expectations are for an increase of just 100,000, down from 156,000 new jobs in August.

Investors will also focus on the employment rate that is expected to remain unchanged at 4.4. Moreover and the average hourly earnings that are expected to rise to 0.2% from 0.1% a month earlier.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen Speech

After the Hawkish comments by the Fed chair Janet Yellen last week, investors will be watching Yellen’s speech on Wednesday at 19:15 GMT at the Community Banking in the 21st Century Conference in St. Louis. Yellen’s comments might conclude whether the Fed raises rates on December.

According to CME Fed Watch Tool, December rate hike odds stand at 76.4% after rising significantly during the previous week.

ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks

As Mario Draghi signaled last month that the ECB will tighten its stimulus program from October, the ECB President will speak on Wednesday at 17:15 GMT. In addition, the ECB will release its meeting minutes. Investors will closely watch Draghi’s comments to get hints of the central bank’s next steps.

The Euro was under pressure against the U.S. Dollar during the previous week as investors reacted to the German election results. The EUR/USD finished the week at 1.1814, down 0.0133 or -1.11%.

Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision

The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its rate decision on Tuesday at 4:30 GMT. Analysts consensus is for the central bank to keep rates unchanged at 1.5% and hold its policy stance.

Investors will keep an eye on any comments from RBA members as they wish to predict whether the AUD will continue its recent drop or a shift in trend is ahead of us.

Check out our real-time Economic Calendar

Mayweather vs. McGregor: The Money Fight is All About Money

All records are expected to be broken in this event, from the total revenues that have been estimated to reach around $700 million, the insane amount that both fighters will gross of the income, and the rising inflation in tickets’ price.

Will Mayweather vs McGregor Break All Revenues Records?

Two years ago, the total revenue of Mayweather victory over Manny Pacquiao ranged between $550-600 million. Back then, Mayweather took home $240 million while Pacquiao grossed $125 million for 36 minutes in the ring, not so bad.

The ‘money fight’ will most likely to overcome these numbers with revenues expected to reach $700 million and some analysts even said the B word. The fight is also expected to be the most profitable pay-per-view event of all time. As August 26 has set to break the new total revenue for a boxing match as well as an individual sports event, the participants will get a nice compensation in return.

The total prize purse is likely to be worth around $350-400 million, in line with $700 million total revenues. Although the exact split has not been revealed, various reports estimate the split could be 70/30 or 75/25 in Mayweather side.

The 40-year-old undefeated American boxer can join Michael Jordan and Tiger Woods in the one Billion athletes club after Saturday’s’s fight as he can add $280-$300 million to his bank account.

The Irish UFC lightweight champion will not be poor after the fight with $100-120 million crawls into his pocket.

Oh, and the money belt. Mauricio Sulaiman, WBC president has announced in the final press conference on Wednesday that the winner will also be the owner of the newly-created ‘Money’ belt.

And the belt carries some serious bling with 3,360 diamonds, 600 sapphires, 300 emeralds, 1.5 kilograms of gold and alligator leather.

Obviously, comments spread all over as some criticize the Mayweather vs McGregor money circus.

The T-mobile Arena in Las Vegas will host ‘the money fight’ and ticket prices range from the cheapest value of $500 to the most expensive of $107,000 for a ringside seat. Estimation of tickets’ revenues is expected to near $90M, beating Mayweather-Pacquiao $72M two years ago.

Love has not been flourishing between Mayweather and McGregor. McGregor claims that he aimed for Mayweather for a long time since Floyd ‘Money’ Mayweather disrespected the MMA. “Originally that’s what woke me up,” said the UFC lightweight champ. “I was a young kid listening to him talk down about the sport that I was dedicating my entire life to”.

Floyd Mayweather is famously known as a gambler. Reports are emerging that Mayweather bets $5M on himself for Saturday’s night. Mayweather odds currently sit at -400, meaning, if he wins, he’ll add another $1.25M to his value.

It could be Mayweather’s 50th victory or McGregor’s first. Both have shown the bravery to be in this situation. Mayweather risks more, he can lose his title and some of his final glory. McGregor is just brave to go on a ring in a sport that he does not fully experience. Maybe for the two fighters, it’s not all about the money.

North Korea – How Much of a Threat?

By the end of World War II, the United States and the Soviet Union took over the Korean country, ending a long Japanese rule of 35 years. During the cold war, both countries remained in a perpetual state of war, faced equal economic, political and social status.

However, the fall of the Soviet Union has changed the balance of power – South Korea, then with a total population of 42 million and a member of the flourishing western economy, reached a safe political democracy to become a close ally of United States.

North Korea, a communist country in a desert of capitalism, had to adjust the new life without the protection of the Russian empire. The country declared to be self-protected, by all means, established a strong army and isolated itself from the rest of the world.

And indeed, the nation’s father Kim Jong Il has provided the poor country with a sufficient military force and ideology of resistance versus its longtime enemy South Korea and its big brother the United States. North Korea, a relatively small country in its size and population holds the fourth largest army in the world with a total of 1.2 million troops followed by China, the United States, and India. Obviously, as a percentage of the population, the country is ranked first.

Yet, there is one element that raises the international community concern – North Korea’s nuclear program. With the help of the Soviet Union, North Korea has begun to develop a nuclear weapon in 1963 and succeeded to preserve a secretive nuclear program till current days.

The Most Sensitive Area in The World

After conducted five successful tests in 2006, 2009, 2013 and twice in 2016, the international community restrained the country with sanctions. So far, in 2017, North Korea has launched eighteen missiles during twelve tests since February, an act that Washington could not let go of. Donald Trump definitely could not let go of North Korea’s last missile test, and warned them that the US will respond with ‘fire and fury’. 

Donald Trump has mentioned North Korea threat before his presidential victory, he has no patience for these types of actions and the Trump administration will take an aggressive approach than Obama did in his campaign. Trump said recently that “the US will solve the North Korea problem, with or without China”. According to Pyongyang, Trump’s administration escalates the Korean conflict and turns the Korean peninsula into the “most sensitive area in the world”.

Regardless of what side creates the tension, the Korean threats increases as the US administration along with other countries will not accept missiles tests in open areas.

Trump faces his first diplomatic clash and the options are wide but limited: continuation of negotiations, more economic sanctions (might create problems with China), naval task force and a military action against North Korea. All options are valid, some are risky.

Stress grows in Beijing as well as the Chinese have been pressured by both sides. The Chinese are responsible to maintain a peaceful state in the Korean peninsula. While China pleads for calm and sends signals to Pyongyang to cool down the atmosphere, one could say that they will join the US if the conflict escalates. Yet, the Chinese long history along with its communist allegiance, and the economic benefits that the two countries share leave Beijing to be in the middle of this conflict.

If the US administration decides that they will not accept North Korea to hold a nuclear weapon, we have seen the consequences in Iraq and invasion is inevitable. Air-based attack and naval force actions are not practical. North Korea will resist invasion with its high-quality defense army facilities.

Both sides and the international community will try to avoid a military action as it will demand high cost by all means. However, a sustainable provocation by North Korea will leave no choice to Trump, a war bursts out of emotions and in an immediate reaction. The current situation must be solved with the help of China and Japan, otherwise, we will witness high technology war battles for the first time in history.

The Week Ahead – Non Farm Payrolls, BoE and RBA Rate Decisions in Focus

As we enter the first week of August, a busy week is upon us with important economic events that might change the current trend.

Financial markets have concluded the recent updates as the Federal Reserve switched its rate hike outlook and economic growth, and the dovish sentiment has affected US dollar and commodities.

Here are the main economic events of the upcoming week:

US Non-Farm Payrolls

The crucial US non-farm payrolls will be released on Friday at 12:30 GMT. Expectations are for an increase of 183,000 this month following the better than expected data in June of 222,000 new jobs.

Investors will also focus on the employment rate after a decrease in the previous month to 4.3% from 4.4%. Moreover, investors will focus on the average hourly earnings that are expected to rise to 0.3% from 0.2% a month earlier.

A good reading can change the Fed rate hike plans after a dovish outlook in their last meetings and comments.

Eurozone CPI

The Eurozone will release its core inflation figures for July on Monday at 9:00 GMT. The core inflation rate is expected to remain steady at 1.1%, well below the ECB inflation forecast of 2%.

The Eurozone will also publish its second-quarter economic growth on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT. YoY GDP is expected to rise to 2.1% from previous of 1.9%. QoQ is expected to hold at 0.6%.

Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

The BoE will release its interest rate decision on Thursday at 11:00 GMT. Investors will pay close attention to the BoE governor Mark Carney press conference after the interest rate announcement.

Analysts expect the BoE to hold rates at record low, however, the previous meeting 5-3 vote and mixed economic signals make the meeting to be ‘expect the unexpected’.

Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision

The reserve bank of Australia will announce its rate decision on Tuesday at 5:30 GMT. Analysts consensus is for the central bank to keep rates unchanged at 1.5%.

Investors will keep an eye on any comments from RBA members as they wish to predict whether the AUD will continue its big rally or a shift in trend is ahead of us.

Check out our real-time Economic Calendar

It’s all About Interest Rates. Draghi Hawkish, Carney Warns Consumers and Yellen…

Markets focus has shifted today to the three economic captains: Mario Draghi, Mark Carney, and Janet Yellen.

Draghi was the first to speak at the annual ECB forum in Portugal, and called a hawkish speech by saying that the Eurozone area is ‘strengthening and broadening’. Draghi confirmed that growth has spread over the Euro area and stimulus actions by the ECB will continue in the near future.

In reaction, the Euro surges 1.03% versus the greenback to trade at 1.1295 and climbed 0.58% versus the British Pound. The EUR/USD trades at two weeks high.

Bond yields rose sharply after Draghi comments on the European economy.

BoE governor Mark Carney raised buffer rates from zero to 0.5%, meaning that British banks will have to hold more than £11 billion extra capital. Carney said that a higher buffer rate might protect the UK economy in times of uncertainty.

The British pound climbed 0.27%, to trade at 1.2753.

As investors try to get further clues of the Federal Reserve next rate hike, Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak at London’s Royal Academy at 17:00 GMT, a speech that will be closely monitored and likely to add volatility.

A number of other top Fed officials are also due to speak later in the day.

Yellen is expected to hold her views on the economy from the previous FOMC June monetary meeting. The Dollar trades lower ahead of Fed speeches with the US dollar index down 0.56% at 96.57.

4 Things You Need to Know Before the Market Opens

The French elections pushed global markets to record highs and postponed investors’ concerns for another week. The Euro climbed versus the US dollar after a long time of consolidation as Emmanuel Macron’s victory in the first round put at ease the European political uncertainty. Safe haven assets prices also dropped, and currently the markets major concern is the increasing tension between the US and North Korea.

In the week ahead, investors will be watching central banks meetings with the Fed, RBA and BoJ on line. US data will also be a major event as the NFP data releases on Friday.

In addition, investors will be watching for Brexit talks, political developments (North Korea and the US) and Apple earnings reports.

BoJ Meeting Minutes

On Tuesday at 00:50 GMT, the Bank of Japan will publish its meeting minutes. The central bank is not expected to announce any big changes, yet, investors will be closely watching for any clues about policy direction.

Following the meeting minutes at 01:20, BoJ governor Kuroda will deliver a speech to explain the central bank’s policy decision and its economic outlook.

The USD/JPY climbed higher during the previous week to close at 111.53.

Eurozone GDP

Eurozone GDP will be published on Wednesday at 10:00 GMT. The Eurozone economy is expected to grow by 0.5% in the first quarter of the year compare to 0.4% in the last quarter of 2016.

YoY, the region’s economy is expected to grow by 1.7%, unchanged from the previous month.

Federal Reserve Rate Decision Meeting

The Federal Reserve begins its two day policy meeting on Tuesday. Analysts expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged and signal for the next rate hike in June.

Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen will hold a press conference on Wednesday following a rate decision announcement. Investors will be watching Yellen’s statement for clues on the Fed’s assessment of inflation, labour market and economic outlook. The main question remains – how many times the Fed will raise interest rates this year? The Fed approved to raise rates at least twice till the end of the year.

US Non Farm Payrolls

After the previous month figures were extremely disappointing for the US economy, April non farm payrolls are expected to rise to 185,000 from 98,000. The unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly to 4.6% from 4.5% a month earlier.

Prior to NFP data, on Wednesday at 13:15 GMT, the ADP employment will be published and expected to rise by 175,000 compare to a surprising surge of  263,000 in the previous month. The ADP data can indicate NFP employment figures.

A good reading might confirm the next rate hike in June and increase the possibility of three rate hikes instead of the current anticipation of two rate hikes.

Check out our real-time Economic Calendar

Political Uncertainty and Central Banks will Affect Gold, Crude Oil and US Dollar

Last Thursday, the US authorized a missile strike on a Syrian airbase following a chemical attack by the Syrian army on civilians. While European countries along with US allies support the operation, Russia and Trump’s opponents condemned the recent US attack, forming a political two-sided world map.

Moreover, days after North Korea condemned America’s airstrikes on Syria, the US has sent warships into the North Korea peninsula in respond to NK nuclear threat. The act comes after Trump-Xi meeting last week.

The geopolitical uncertainty that spreads out during the previous week affected mainly oil prices as instability in the Middle East region raises investors concerns. Oil was trading at its one month high after the US strike in Syria, and in the week ahead investors will be closely watching the political progress as the conflict can harm the oil-rich country.

Gold prices also jumped higher on Friday following the US military action. Gold futures traded at 1273.25 to hit a five-month peak, however, gold prices dropped back after the nonfarm payrolls report was released. Many analysts predict the upcoming weeks will determine gold’s next direction as the precious metal swings between political uncertainty and US monetary policy decisions. A break above Friday’s high will signal a bullish trend.

Last week, the Fed minutes meeting stated that “some participants viewed equity prices as a quite high relative to standard valuation measures.” With the increasing view of high stocks market prices, gold might be a fair alternative for investors.

The US jobs employment report released on Friday was mixed after only 98,000 new jobs created on March compare to a significant rise of 219,000 in February and 216,000 in January. The employment figures are the lowest since May 2016, missed analysts expectations as well as Donald Trump’s promise to add 25 million jobs over the next 10 years. However, on the positive side, the unemployment rate fell to 4.5% from 4.7%, the lowest rate since 2007.

The US Dollar still holds steady to trade higher versus all major currencies and remains the top safe haven currency. on Friday, the US Dollar index rose 0.47% to close at 101.47.

The week ahead, investors will continue their search of the next Fed rate hike timing. On Monday, the Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen will speak at the University of Michigan. Yellen could be asked about the Fed economy outlook and rate hike expectations as audience questions are expected.

Investors will also be watching US March inflation and retail sales figures to be released on Friday at 13:30 GMT. Good reading will support the Fed rate hike after the central bank mentioned their concerns over rising inflation.

Although the week ahead will be short due to the holiday on Friday, volatility is expected to rise as politics and monetary policy clash. Military concerns, European elections, and central banks policies will drive financial markets in the upcoming weeks.

The week Ahead – Non Farm Payrolls, French Election Debate and Trump Xi Meeting

As we enter the first week of 2017 second quarter, a busy week is upon us. During the last weeks, financial markets consolidated until further clarification arrives. Concerns remain in the form of interest rates, US fiscal economic policy, European elections and political uncertainty.

Here are the main economic events of the upcoming week:

US Non-Farm Payrolls

The last nonfarm payrolls approved a rate hike to a range of 0.75% to 1.00% at the Federal Reserve meeting on March 14-15 after a surprising surge of 235K. Analysts expect an increase of 180K new jobs on Friday. Markets will also be watching the US employment rate which is expected to remain unchanged at 4.7%.

As markets test the next rate hike timing and whether the Fed will raise rates four times during the rest of the year, a good reading can confirm the Fed’s confidence with the overall US employment.

On Wednesday, ahead of US nonfarm payrolls, the ADP report will be released. Analysts expect growth of 200K new jobs compares to the previous month of 298K.

Fed Meeting Minutes

On March 14-15, the Federal Reserve raised US interest rate by 25 basis points. Latest statements by Fed members signaled the US economy is expanding as expected by the US central bank.

On Wednesday, the Fed will release its March 14-15 meeting minutes as it should provide more details about the Fed’s latest rate hike and their future rate hike projections.

Investors will be closely watching for hawkish/dovish comments by the Fed minutes to signal the next direction of financial markets. Next rate hike is expected in June as markets are currently pricing 58.7%, according to Fed Watch tool.

Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision

On Tuesday, 4:30 GMT, the RBA will publish its interest rate decision. Analysts expect the central bank to hold rates at a record low of 1.5% as the Australian economy remains in a sensitive condition.

Investors will be focus on any hints that can signal the next central banks’ actions.

Donald Trump to Meet with Chinese President Xi

Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet the US President Donald Trump on Thursday and Friday at Trump’s resort in Florida. According to the White House official release, the two will deal with ‘global, regional and bilateral issues of mutual concern’.

Xi and Trump meet after complex development between the two countries. Trump has accused China to manipulate currencies several times and after Trump’s phone call with Taiwan’s leader, a sign of ‘One China’s policy’.

On Thursday, Trump said on Twitter: “The meeting next week with China will be a very difficult one that we can no longer have massive trade deficits”

French Election Debate

As the first round of voting on April 23 is getting closer, French presidential candidates will attend the second televised debate. France, along with the rest of the world, is curious to see whether the populist candidate Marine Le Pen can carry away the French nation into a protectionist political system.

Check out our real-time Economic Calendar

The Week Ahead – Trump’s Border Wall, Article 50 in Focus

As we enter the last week of 2017 first quarter, traders and investors seek a new direction. Currently, political events and economic projections do not provide any significant clarification for the upcoming months.

June 23, 2016, was the historic date that the United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union. The big event of the upcoming week will occur on Wednesday as the British parliament will send Article 50 notification to start the process of leaving the EU.

Additionally, after the repealing of Obamacare and new healthcare legislation was put on hold, investors will focus on another Donald Trump’s issue that might attract markets attention, the US-Mexico border wall. The proposal is expected to be released on Wednesday and might add volatility in markets if a surprising outcome will be released.

Here are the main economic events of the upcoming week:

Monday

  • German IFO Business Climate will be published at 9:00 GMT. The index is expected to remain unchanged at 111.

Tuesday

  • US Consumer confidence will be released at 15:00 GMT and expected to fall slightly to 113.8 compared to 114.8.

Wednesday

  • Article 50 Activation – The big event is expected to be published at 10:00 GMT, the UK parliament will send article 50 notification to begin the process of leaving the EU. Recently, the UK parliament approved article 50 as what was called ‘hard Brexit’.
  • US Pending Home Sales data will be released at 15:00 GMT. MoM expected to rise by 2.0% compared to -2.8% a  month earlier.

Thursday

  • Eurozone Business Confidence for March will be published at 10:00 GMT and expected to rise to 0.84 compared to 0.82 in February.
  • March German Inflation Rate will be published at 13:00 GMT. YoY is expected to rise 1.8%, a fall from February 2.2%.
  • US Q4 GDP will be released at 13:30 GMT. QoQ is expected to grow by 2.0% compared to 3.5% in Q3.

Friday

  • Japan Inflation & Unemployment Rate for February will be published at 00:30 GMT. Japan’s inflation is expected to rise by 0.2% compared to 0.4% a month earlier. Japan’s unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.0%.
  • China NBS Manufacturing PMI for March will be published at 2:00 GMT and expected to hold at 51.6.
  • German Unemployment Change will be released at 8:55 GMT. German Unemployment rate is expected to hold at 5.9% while unemployment change is expected to drop by 10K compare to a drop of 14K  in February.
  • UK Q4 GDP will be released at 9:30 GMT. QoQ growth is expected to rise to 0.7% compared to 0.6%. YoY expected to grow by 2.0% compared to 2.2%.
  • Eurozone Inflation rate will be published at 10:00 GMT. Expected to grow by 1.8% compared to 2.0% a month earlier. Core Inflation is expected to rise by 1.0% compared to 0.9%.
  • Chicago PMI Index will be published at 14:45 and expected to drop to 56.5 compared to 57.4.
  • US Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be released at 15:00 GMT and expected to rise to 97.6 compared to 96.3.

Check out our real-time Economic Calendar

The Week That Was and The Week Ahead

The excitement of the previous week is still resonant in the markets after the Federal Reserve increased its rate hike by another 25 basis points to a 0.75% to 1.00% on Wednesday. That was symbolic as last Thursday was the 2008 financial crisis 8 years anniversary.

Markets were also relieved by the Dutch election results as it seems that the Dutch government will be able to maintain its stable coalition. The Eurozone will face elections in various countries during the rest of the year and many analysts considered the Dutch elections to be a predominant of the upcoming Eurozone elections.

Major central banks held their monetary policy unchanged during the previous week with BoE, BoJ and SNB policies remained unchanged. The banks will maintain their stimulus programs until further economic indications might shed light on global economy. In particular, the Bank of England will stay put as the UK parliament is doing its first divorce steps from the Eurozone.

While we hear analysts’ predictions of a near stocks crisis, markets reacted positively to the latest developments and continue to trade steady.

Gold climbed during last week to close at 1229 as the Fed’s rate hike boosted gold prices. The G-20 pledge will be a major role for gold prices as the decision to drop free-trade is likely to add concerns.

The Week Ahead

The week ahead markets will continue to seek answers for the unsolved question of US rate hikes during 2017. The Fed Chair, Janet Yellen will deliver a speech at the Federal Reserve System Community on Wednesday at 12:45 GMT. Apart from Yellen, markets will focus on other Fed members speakers to predict their policy economic outlook.

Investors will also adapt the consequences of the G-20 meeting on Friday and Saturday after the Trump administration came out with their hands on top to drop a pledge of anti protectionist, free-trade and climate change funding.

In the UK, Inflation Rate will be published on Tuesday at 9:30 GMT, CPI is expected to rise to 2.1% from previous 1.8% a month earlier. Retail Sales will be released on Thursday at 9:30 GMT and expected to also rise by 0.4% compare to decrease of -0.3%.

In Europe, the Eurozone consumer confidence will be published on Thursday at 15:00 GMT and expected to rise to -4.9 compare to -6.2. The Eurozone is also due to publish its Markit Manufacturing PMI on Friday at 9:00 GMT. The data is expected to hold steady at 55.3 compare to 55.4 a month earlier.

Check out our real-time Economic Calendar

The week Ahead – BoJ, BoE, G20 and The Federal Reserve Meeting

US job numbers released on Friday approved markets expectations – another rate hike in the Federal Reserve next meeting on Wednesday. The Fed meeting will be the main event of the upcoming week. Anything but a rate hike will be a major surprise, in fact, investors will be closely watching for the rest of the year rate hike projections.

Apart from that, the week ahead contains many events with BoE, BoJ and SNB meetings to get indications of major central banks next policy actions. The G20 meeting on Friday and Saturday will also be an important event as global leaders meet to discuss the world economy.

Here are the main economic events of the upcoming week:

Tuesday

  • Australia NAB Business Confidence will be released at 00:30 GMT and expected to fall to 8.75 from 10.
  • China Retail Sales & Industrial Production will be published at 02:00 GMT. YoY  retail sales are expected to fall to 10.5% from 10.9% a month earlier, industrial production figure is expected to rise to 6.2% from previous 6.0%.
  • German ZEW Sentiment for March will be released at 10:00 GMT and expected to rise to 13.0 from 10.4 in the previous month.
  • US February PPI will be published at 12:30 GMT. MoM PPI is expected to grow be 0.1%, a decline from previous month 0.6%.
  • Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence will be released at 23:30 GMT. The index previous reading was 99.6.

Wednesday

  • UK Employment Rate and Claimant Count Change are expected to be released at 9:30 GMT. UK Employment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.8%, claimant count change is expected to fall by -5K, an improvement compare to -42K a month earlier.
  • US Inflation Rate & Retail Sales for February will be be published at 12:30 GMT. YoY CPI is expected to rise to 2.7% from 2.5% while MoM is expected to rise by 0.2% compare to 0.6% a month earlier. Core inflation rate is expected to rise by 2.2% compare to 2.3%. Retail sales are expected to rise by 0.1% compare to 0.4% in January.
  • Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision will be published at 18:00 GMT. The Fed is expected to raise rates to a range of 0.75%-1.0%. A press conference will take place after the rate decision including Janet Yellen speech. Markets will pay attention to get further indications of more rate hikes during the rest of the year.

Thursday

  • The Dutch elections results are expected to be released in the early hours of Thursday. With the increasing tensions between Netherlands and Turkey along with global concerns about Europe political uncertainty, the Dutch elections have major impact on financial markets.
  • Australia Unemployment Rate will  be published at 00:30 GMT and expected to remain unchanged at 5.7%. 16,000 new jobs are expected to have been created during this month compare to 13,500 in the previous month.
  • Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision will be released at 03:00 GMT. The BoJ is expected to hold rates at -0.1%, to maintain its stimulus program of 10 year government yields at 0% and net 80 trillion Yen monthly Japanese government bonds purchase. Markets will be closely watching BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda press conference immediately after the rate decision.
  • SNB Interest Rate Decision will be published at 8:30 GMT. The Swiss central bank is expected to hold rates at -0.75%. Markets will be analyzing SNB policy assessment to get further indications of the bank next steps.
  • Bank of England Rate Decision will be published at 12:00 GMT. The BoE is expected to hold policy unchanged as the central bank remain neutral until further indication of the British economy will be revealed.

Friday

  • Eurozone Trade Balance will be published at 10:00 GMT. Surplus expected to fall to €5.1 Billion from €28.1 Billion a month earlier.
  • Michigan Consumer Sentiment for March will be released at 14:00 GMT. The index is expected to rise to 97 from 96.3.

Saturday

  • G20 Meeting – The world’s 20 developed economies leaders will meet on Friday and Saturday in the German town Baden. The meeting will attract markets attention as it will be the first encounter of the new US president, Donald Trump and his administration with finance and political world leaders.

Check out our real-time Economic Calendar

The Week Ahead – ECB Meeting and Non-Farm Payrolls in Focus

The latest developments in financial markets have brought the Fed Funds Rate to rise to 79.7% rate hike probability at the central bank next meeting on March 15. Janet Yellen’s comment on Friday confirmed that the US central bank adapted the recent economic data and is ready for the next rate hike.

“We currently judge that it will be appropriate to gradually increase the federal funds if the economic data continue to come in about as we expect,”

The US jobs report on Friday will be the last confirmation before another rate hike. Good reading – and the Federal Reserve can no longer dodge to increase its interest rate this month. The next non-farm payrolls will be an important event for the US and global economy.

Apart from that, the ECB meeting on Thursday will be particularly vital as questions about the European quantitative easing program will be asked, with Eurozone Inflation numbers are close to ECB target.

Here are the main economic events of the upcoming week:

Monday

  • Australian MoM Retail Sales will be released at 00:30 GMT and expected to rise to 0.4% from -0.1% a month earlier. The data can add to the previous week better than expected Australian GDP data as the Australian economy starts float above negative growth.

Tuesday

  • RBA Interest Rate Decision will be announced at 3:30 GMT and rates are expected to remain unchanged. However, any comments from policy makers can help the Aussie next direction.
  • Eurozone Q4 GDP (3rd Estimation) will  be released at 10:00 GMT. QoQ is expected to rise to 0.4% from previous estimation of 0.3% while YoY is expected to remain unchanged at 1.7%.
  • US January Trade Balance will be published at 13:30 GMT, US deficit is expected to rise to $-47.3B from $-44.3B.
  • Canada Ivey PMI will be released at 15:00 GMT and expected to fall to 55.5 from 57.2.
  • Japan Q4 GDP will be published at 23:50 GMT. Japan annual growth is forecasts to rise to 1.6% from 1.3%.

Wednesday

  • China Trade Balance will be released at 2:00 GMT. The Chinese deficit is expected to shrink to $25B from $51.35B. YoY exports are expected to rise to 10% compare to 7.9% while YoY imports are expected to rise to 20.3% from 16.7%.
  • ADP Employment Report will be published at 13:15 GMT and expected to drop to 190K new jobs compare to previous month increase of 246K. The data can imply the US jobs report result on Friday that will be significant to economy after rate hike probability increased in the past two weeks.

Thursday

  • China Inflation Rate will be published at 1:30 GMT and expected to fall to 1.6% from 2.5%. MoM inflation rate is expected to also fall to 0.6% from 1.0%.
  • ECB Interest Rate Decision will be published at 12:45 GMT. Economists do not expect any rate change in the European central bank meeting, however with Eurozone inflation on the rise, questions will be asked regarding an update of the central bank QE program. ECB president, Mario Draghi will hold a 45 minutes press conference post the rate decision to speak about the ECB asset purchasing program.

Friday

  • Germany Trade Balance will be released at 07:00 GMT and surplus is expected to fall to €14.1B from €18.7B.
  • UK Trade Balance will be released at 9:30 GMT and trade deficit is expected to grow to £3.8B from  £3.3B.
  • UK Manufacturing Production for January will be published at 9:30 GMT. Expectation are for a decrease of -0.5% compare to an increase of 2.1% a month earlier.
  • US Non-Farm payrolls Report will be released at 13:30 GMT. The consensus forecast is for an increase of 190K new jobs following an increase of 227K in January. The data will attract markets attention as recent developments concluded that the Federal Reserve will increase its rates in the next meeting on 14-15 March. In addition, US employment rate is expected to fall to 4.7% from 4.8%.

Check out our real-time Economic Calendar

5 Things You Need to Know Before the Market Opens

The previous week provided us with more clarity, ironically, as a result of the Fed’s unclear meeting minutes protocol. Gold was the first to break out of its range, signals that markets uncertainty is increasing as the political instability across Europe add concerns into the markets.

Currently, the market trend is the strength of the US dollar and US/global share markets along with increasing concerns of the upcoming political and economical events.

If the previous week was in the hands of the Fed and the rate hike timing, the big event of the upcoming week will obviously be Donald Trump’s speech in front of the US congress.

Trump speech to Congress

On Tuesday at 21:00 GMT, the new president will deliver a speech in front of the congress. Markets will be closely watching for further details about the the new stimulus and tax programs.

Investors will also be listening to Trump’s comments regrading economic deregulation programs as his plans to deregulate the US economic institutions can further lift US stocks.

US Q4 (Second Estimate) GDP

On Tuesday 13:30 GMT, US fourth quarter GDP will be released. Growth is expected to be revised to 2.1% from previous 3.5%. The data can shed light on the US economic growth and indicate for the Fed’s next rate hike steps.

As Fed members are due to make policy speeches in the upcoming week, a good growth reading can add pressure on the Fed rate hike decision.

Australia Q4 GDP

The Australian GDP data will be published on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT. QoQ Growth is expected to rise to 0.7% from -0.5% a quarter earlier. YoY is expected to rise to 1.9% from 1.8%.

A good figure can push the Aussie further versus other currencies as the Australian economy strength continues.

UK Services PMI

On Friday at 9:30 GMT, UK services PMI will be released and expected to rise to 55.1 from 54.5.

After the Bank of England raised its growth forecast for 2018 & 2019, the activity index can approve the central bank economic growth forecasts.

Fed Members Speeches

The big question of financial markets is still in the air – the next rate hike timing. After the previous week meeting minutes hinted that the next rate hike is expected to be ‘fairly soon’, any Fed member comment can trigger the markets.

the biggest appearance will be from Fed’s chair Janet Yellen on Friday. Yellen will speak on the economy in front of the executives club of Chicago.

Be aware that any hawkish or dovish comment can add volatility to the markets.

Check out our real-time Economic Calendar

The Big Investment of Stephen Curry

In 2011/12, Stephen Curry had a repetitive ankle injury that made him miss most of the season. During the summer, he had two ankle surgeries while he was trying to turn his career around, and like many other big talents that ended their career with cruel injuries, the Warriors fans did not expect to see the skinny guy in the following season. The Warriors took a bet, a huge bet. In October 2012, the team from Oakland offered Curry to extend his contract for four years in return to $44 million. That was way below the original contract of $80 million for five years which Curry was entitled to get, however, in the new circumstances, analysts concluded that the new contract is actually better for Curry than to the Warriors.

As part of the Warriors investment, Curry was sent into a special treatment to rehabilitate his ankle and knees. The treatment included a mapping of 5000 points in his body and a special Yoga position that strengthen Curry’s core muscles. Since this injury, Curry, which his game is based on quick and extreme moves, proved that the Warriors one million treatment investment was a smart play.

Golden State’s GM, Bob Mayers, commented after Curry’s sign up: “Time will tell, but we felt like obviously, we put $44 million dollars on the table (to show) that we believe in him. It’s a big belief in his health; you can bet against it or you can bet on it, and we decided to bet on it.”

That was a good bet by Myers. In the next five seasons, Curry has become the face of the league with a phenomenal 2014-15 season including an MVP award and one special ring that brought back the Golden State Warriors their first championship since 1975. The following season, Curry was the first player to be elected MVP by a unanimous vote and lead the league in scoring. The Golden State ended the playoffs as a runner-up to the Cleveland Cavaliers, losing the finals, but it does not change the fabulous team that built up from this moment, that special bet in October 2012. With Curry as the heart of the team, the Warriors won the championship again in 2016/17 and set themselves in a good position to win the title back to back for the first time.

Curry was ranked 83 in the NBA top earners players. He was also ranked fourth in his own team. That changed in the last summer when the Warriors upgraded his contract to more than $34 million a year. Hence – Stephan Curry was the best investment in the NBA history!

Under Armour Investment and Curry’s Share

The Warriors were not alone to bet on Curry. Under Armour, an American sports clothing and accessories company, jumped on this catch after Nike passed on to upgrade Curry’s contract. It was simple, Nike offered Curry 2.5 million for a yearly contract, Under Armour offered 4 million and won.

The deal lifted Under Armour business to a level of doubling its value. So, after the Warriors championship, the company upgraded Curry’s contract, provided him with company shares and extended their partnership until 2024. Last year, The Business Insider claimed that Curry could be worth $14 billion to Under Armour. Kevin Plank, Under Armour’s CEO, said that he wants to build a $1 billion basketball brand around Curry.

For the past five years, Steph Curry’s shoe line was Under Armour salvation. Shoe sales were skyrocketing and the stock price reached its record in 2014 ($120.16) with the increasing popularity of Curry. Since then the stock fell drastically, partly due to the latest unsuccessful Curry 3 shoe line that influenced the company revenues. It is clear that Curry’s popularity is flourishing as he has the number one selling jersey among NBA players. Perhaps… Under Armour is now Stephen Curry, an injured company with a lot of potentials.

The Golden State Warriors and Under Armour did not invent a new type of investment. Warren Buffett, actually, made a fortune based on the same notion. There are two types of investments: the first one is to invest in a company along with its peak, Google, Apple, and Facebook are all holding on at their peak and no one can tell when it might end. The second investment is Stephan Curry, take a hurt, damaged product with plenty of potentials, put your money on it and go to bed for a few years. Ask Bob Myers, he has done it.

The Week Ahead – All the Things You Need to Know

The previous week revealed us that the Federal Reserve will not stay indifferent regarding the latest economic data that recently released from the US. Janet Yellen provided us a glance of  the Fed’s plans for their next meeting. Markets reacted accordingly with the US Dollar remains stable versus major currencies and global shares markets continue to climb, counting the days until higher interest rates.

Traders will be focus on this week economic data as markets direction is still uncertain.

Here are the main economic events of the upcoming week:

Sunday

  • Japan Trade Balance will be released at 23:50 GMT. The data is expected to show a deficit of ¥-636.8B, and a decrease from the previous month deficit of ¥641.4B.

Monday

  • Eurozone Consumer Confidence Flash will be published at 15:00 GMT and expected to fall to -4.9 compare to -4.7 a month earlier.
  • US Markets Closed for Presidents Day
  • Canada markets closed for Family Day.

Tuesday

  • The RBA Meeting Minutes will be released at 00:30 GMT. After a positive employment data on last Thursday and the increasing pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia, markets will be closely watching for any signals that can provide the next direction of the Australian Dollar.
  • France, Germany & Eurozone PMI – The French Manufacturing PMI Flash will be published at 8:00 GMT and expected to hold steady at 53.5 compare to 53.6 a month earlier. German Manufacturing PMI Flash will be released at 8:30 GMT and forecasts to fall slightly to 56 compare to 56.4 in the previous month. Later at 9:00 GMT, the same data for the Eurozone is expected to remain unchanged at 55.
  • US Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash will be released at 14:45 GMT and expected to rise slightly to 55.2 compare to 55.

Wednesday

  • German IFO Business Climate will be published at 9:00 GMT and expected to hold steady at 109.6 compare to 109.8.
  • UK Q4 GDP(Second Estimate) will be released at 9:30 GMT. YoY and MoM are expected to remain unchanged at 2.2% and 0.6% respectively. Any surprises can add volatility to the British Pound as latest economic data from the UK signaled the economy strength despite the decision to leave the EU.
  • Eurozone January Inflation data will be released at 10:00 GMT. YoY is expected to rise significantly to 1.8% compare to 1.1% a month earlier while Core inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 0.9%. MoM figure is expected to drop to -0.8% from 0.5%.
  • Canada Retail Sales for December will be published at 13:30 GMT and expected to rise to 0.5% from 0.2%.
  • US Existing Home Sales will be published at 15:00 GMT and expected to rise to 5.53M from 5.49M a month earlier.
  • FOMC Meeting Minutes will be published at 19:00 GMT. Fed Chair Janet Yellen raised expectation of a rate hike in the next meeting on March after hawkish testimony last week. Markets are currently pricing rate hike in March at 20%, according to FedWatch tool. The Meeting Minutes can shed light on the Fed next actions and policy outlook.

Thursday

  • German GFK Consumer confidence will be released at 7:00 GMT and expected to fall to 10.1 compare to 10.2.
  • German Q4 GDP will be published at 7:00 GMT. QoQ is expected to rise to 0.4% compare to 0.1% in the previous quorter while YoY is expected to be revised to 1.2% compare to 1.5%.

Friday

  • Canada Inflation Rate will be published at 13:30 GMT. YoY growth excpected to rise to 1.6% compare to 1.5% while MoM is expected to also rise to 0.3% compare to -0.2%.
  • US Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be published at 15:00 GMT and expected to fall to 96 compare to 98.5 a month earlier.
  • US New Home Sales will be released at 15:00 GMT. The data is expected to show annual rate improvemnt by growing to 570K compare to 536K.

Check out our real-time Economic Calendar

The Week Ahead – Everything You Need to Know

While stocks markets continue to rally in the US and globally due to Donald Trump deregulation actions, markets are in a constant concern of the new American  president and the Geo political instability that hover above global economy. Gold and precious metals continued to climb as investors seek a new safe haven. The US Dollar posted its first weekly gain after Fed member Harker said that March is on the table for a possible rate hike.

The week ahead, Yellen testimony on Wednesday will attract most attention as any signals of the next rate hike can add volatility and direction into markets.

Here are the main economic events of the upcoming week:

Sunday

  • On Sunday, German Presidential results will be released at 12:00 PM GMT.

Germany former foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, is the overwhelming favourite to succeed Joachim Gauck, a 77-year-old former pastor and East German pro-democracy activist who is not seeking a second five-year term because of his age.

The German president has little executive power, but is considered an important moral authority.

  • Japan will publish its growth domestic products figures at 23:50 GMT. the data is expected to show that Japan economy expanded by 0.3% QoQ while YoY is forecasts to grow by 1.1%, a decline from 1.3% a month earlier. The released data might pressure BoJ and provide volatility for the Japanese Yen.

Monday

  • OPEC Monthly Report will be released at European morning session. The IEA Supply report last week suggested possible changes by OPEC. The oil leading countries report might shed light on oil and energy prices.

Tuesday

  • China Inflation Rate will be published at 1:30 AM GMT. MoM Chinese CPI is expected to rise to 0.7% from 0.2% while YoY is expected to rise to 2.4% from 2.1%.
  • Germany will publish its GDP data at 9:00 GMT. QoQ German growth is expected to rise by 0.5% compare to 0.2% YoY is also expected to rise to 1.7% from 1.5%.
  • UK CPI will be released at 9:30 GMT. MoM UK growth is expected to shrink by -0.5% compare to an increase of 0.5% in the previous month. YoY inflation rate is expected to rise by 1.9% compare to 1.6% a month earlier.
  • EuroZone Revised GDP data will be released at 10:00 GMT. QoQ the European economy is expected to grow by 0.5% compare to previous 0.3% while YoY is expected to slightly grow by 1.8% compare to 1.7%.
  • German Zew Economic Index will be released at 10:00 GMT. The sentiment index is expected to fall to 15 from 16.6.
  • Janet Yellen will testify before the Senate Banking Committee at 15:00 GMT. Yellen testimony will include the Fed insights and the can signal the projected timing of the next rate hike.

Wednesday

  • UK Unemployment rate will be released at 9:30 GMT and expected to hold steady at 4.8%. Claimant Count Change is expected to rise by 1K compare to a fall of 10.1K a month earlier.
  • US Inflation Rate will be published at 13:30 GMT and expected to rise to 2.4% compare 2.1% annually. MoM CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 0.3%. YoY core CPI is expected to slightly fall to 2.1% compare to previous 2.2%.
  • The Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen will testify in front of the Financial Services Committee at 13:00 GMT. Markets will be closely watching as March rate hike projections increased to 15% after FOMC member Harker comments. Fed Harker will hold a speech on the same day at 17:45.

Thursday

  • Australian Unemployment Rate will be released at 00:30 GMT and expected to remain unchanged at 5.8%. 10K new jobs created in the previous month compare to 13.5K.
  • US Housing Starts and Building Permits will be published at 13:30 GMT. Housing Starts are expected to remain unchanged at 1227 while building permits are expected to rise to 1230 compare to 1228.
  • Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will be released at 13:30 GMT and expected to fall to 18 from 23.6 a month earlier.

Friday

  • UK Retail Sales figures will be published at 9:30 GMT. YoY UK retail sales is expected to fall to 3.5% from 4.3% a month earlier.

Check out our real-time Economic Calendar

The Week Ahead – It is All About Politics

The week ahead is expected to be quiet as economic events from biggest economies are not due to release this week. The previous week has once again confirmed the strength of the US economy with higher than expected employment data that was released on Friday. The BoE upgraded its growth forecast for 2018 and 2019 and as a result The British Pound has been caught between BoE announcements, article 50 invocation and on the other side of the coin, recent volatility of the US Dollar.

Yes, Donald Trump policy actions are currently the strongest market mover. The reopen conflict between the US and Iran lifted crude oil prices and obviously drops concerns over global economic stability.

The ongoing rumors of Trump’s plans are standing in the Que. Trump is expected to order a review of Dodd-Frank act, the same regulation that was implemented after 2008 crisis and is supposed to prevent the unregulated financial markets. The new president is not about to stop there and continues to ease financial regulation. Banks stocks are thrilled after Trump’s deregulation announcements. JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and other banks stocks were among gainers on Friday.

Additionally, Trump protectionism policy supports the radical immigration rules that create tension among major countries. And please, do not forget the currency war, US vs China and US vs Japan. Early last week, Trump said, “Look at what China is doing. You look at what Japan has done over the year. They play the money market, they play the devaluation market and we sit there like a bunch of dummies.”

As long as Trump is the president, the currency war will be at center stage.

Apart from politics, we have the Reserve Bank of Australia that will release its rate decision on Tuesday at 3:30 GMT. The Australian dollar rally is certainly could not be ignored by the RBA members. A rate change is not expected, yet, we should closely watch for any signals from the Australian central bank.

The close neighbor, New Zealand will join Australia to announce its interest rate on Wednesday 20:00 GMT. Expectations are for RBNZ to hold rates unchanged, however, due to rising inflation figures in New Zealand, markets will pay close attention to anticipate the central bank next moves.

Check out our real-time Economic Calendar

The Week Ahead – Trump, Central Banks and Non-Farm Payrolls

As markets continue to absorb Donald Trump’s new policies after his first presidential week, central banks and economic data will try to still the show in the upcoming week.

Japan, Eurozone, United States and Britain will have their meetings. Markets will also pay close attention to non-farm payrolls on Friday to get further signals of the next interest rate hike.

Here are the main economic events of the upcoming week:

Monday

  • Eurozone Business Confidence for January will be released at 10:00 GMT. The index is expected to hold at 0.8.
  • German inflation rate will be published at 13:00 GMT and expected to shrink by -0.6% MoM. YoY German CPI is expected to fall to 1.7% compare to 2.00% in the previous quarter.
  • Japan Employment Rate data will be released at 23:00 GMT. Japanese employment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.1%.

Tuesday

  • Australia NAB Business Confidence will be published at 00:30 GMT and expected to fall slightly to 4.9 from 5.0.
  • Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision will take action at 3:00 GMT. The BoJ is expected to hold rates and policy unchanged. However, any future policy plans can shake up the markets. The BoJ quarterly outlook report will be published after the rate decision.
  • ECB President Mario Draghi speech will take place at 8:00 GMT. Although the ECB announced to hold their easing program unchanged, any signal from Draghi might lead to market speculation.
  • German Unemployment Rate for January will be released at 8:55 GMT. Unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 6.00% while the number of unemployed falls by 4000 compared to 17000.
  • Eurozone Flash Inflation figures will be published at 10:00 GMT. Eurozone Inflation rate expected to rise to 1.2% from 1.1% YoY. Core inflation rate expected to remain unchanged at 0.9%. Europe unemployment forecasts to fall slightly to 9.7% from 9.8%. MoM GDP is expected to remain unchanged at 0.3 while YoY expected to rise by 1.6% compare to 1.7%.

Wednesday

  • China Manufacturaning & non-manufacturing PMI index will be releaded at 01:00 GMT. Manufaccturing PMI expected to fall to 51.2 from 51.4. Non manufacturing PMI is also expected to fall slightly to 54.4 from 54.5.
  • ECB Non Monetary Policy meeting will take place at 9:00 GMT. The European central bank will publish its economic forecasts.
  • UK Manufaturing PMI index will be published at 9:30 GMT and expected to fall to 55.9 from 56.1.
  • ADP Employment Report will be published at 13:15 and expected to rise by 165K new jobs compare to 153K a month earlier.
  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released at 15:00 GMT. The index is expected to rise slightly to 66 from 65.5.
  • Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision announcement will be published at 19:00 GMT. The Fed is expected to make any changes on interest rates. On December, the Fed indicated for three rate hikes in 2017. However, markets speculate the number of rate hike and the forecast timing.

Thursday

  • Australia Trade Balance will be released at 12:30 GMT. Previous reading came out at A$1.24B.
  • Japan Consumer Confidence will be released at 05:00 GMT and expected to fall to 40.3 from 43.1 a month earlier.
  • Bank of England Interest Rate Decision announcement will be published at 12:00 GMT. The BoE is expected to leave rates unchanged as British central bank stay neutral until further progress of Brexit. The bank will also publish its quarterly inflation report and update markets regarding Britain quantitative easing program which currently stands on £435B.
  • US Initial Jobless Claims will be released at 13:30 GMT and expected to fall to 250K from 259K in the previous month.

Friday

  • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI index will be published at 1:45 GMT and forecasts to fall slightly to 51.8 from 51.9.
  • US Non Farm Payrolls and Employment Rate will be released at 13:30 GMT. The US labor force is expected to grow by 171K jobs compare to 156K a month earlier. Employment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.7%.

Check out our real-time Economic Calendar

Weekly Economic Calendar – Trump, Yellen and China

After a first volatile week in 2017, markets will continue to focus on economic news and speeches in order to get further indications of global policy makers.

In the second week of the year, traders and investors will be closely watching on Donald Trump’s press conference on Wednesday. Trump will hold his first post- election conference and traders will attempt to get any details about the economic plans of the new US president that will enter the White House on January 20.

Additionally, on Thursday, Fed chair Janet Yellen will speak in Washington. After Friday’s weak non farm payrolls and a vague minutes protocol of December meeting, investors will continue to seek any details of US central Bank rate hike predictions.

Last week, rumors indicate China’s US Dollar sell-off pushed the greenback down. The question for the upcoming week is if the trend continue as the Chinese leadership concerned by Trump’s trades restrictions plan.

China will publish its CPI data on Tuesday at 1:30 GMT and its Trade Balance on Friday at 03:00 GMT.

On Thursday, ECB minutes will be published at 12:30 GMT and can shed lights of the European central bank decision to extend its quantitative easing program.