AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – If Downside Momentum Continues then Look for Test of .7675 – .7641

The Australian Dollar is edging lower on Thursday as traders position themselves ahead of a speech by Reserve Bank Governor Guy Debelle at 09:00 GMT. On Wednesday, the Aussie Dollar rose as the U.S. Dollar retreated after a report showed the private sector added fewer jobs than forecast.

At 04:34 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7728, down 0.0020 or -0.26%.

U.S. private payrolls rose by the most in seven months in April, ADP data showed on Wednesday, as companies boosted production to meet a surge in demand amid massive government spending and rising COViD-19 vaccinations. But the 742,000 private jobs created fell short of the 800,000 jobs expected by economists in a Reuters poll.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The trend turned down on Tuesday when sellers took out the swing bottom at .7691. A trade through .7675 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through .7818 will change the main trend to up.

The short-term range is .7532 to .7818. Its retracement zone at .7675 to .7641 is the next downside target and potential support area.

The main range is .8007 to .7532. Its retracement zone at .7770 to .7826 is resistance. This zone stopped the rally at .7818 last week.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the AUD/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at .7770.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7770 will indicate the presence of sellers. If the move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the short-term retracement zone at .7675 to .7641. We could see a technical bounce on the first test of this area, but if it fails then look for a possible spike into the .7586 main bottom.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7770 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the main top at .7818, followed closely by the main Fibonacci level at .7826. Taking out this level could trigger a further rally into the main top at .7849. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

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Published by

James Hyerczyk

James A. Hyerczyk has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.