AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Momentum Shifted to Downside; Ripe for Break into .7202

The Australian Dollar is slipping against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday after once again failing to overcome a key resistance area on the charts. Meanwhile, the New Zealand Dollar flipped to the downside after giving back its earlier gains, dragging the Aussie with it. The key area that seems to be repelling traders is .7340 to .7345. The failed rally suggests the AUD/USD is getting ready to rollover to the downside.

At 07:50 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7252, down 0.0027 or -0.38%.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, but momentum is trending lower. A trade through .7340 will signal a resumption of the uptrend, while a move through .6991 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is down. The trend turned down earlier in the session when sellers took out the last minor bottom at .7253. This shifted momentum to the downside. The minor trend will change back to up if buyers can overcome .7318.

The minor range is .7340 to .7247. Its 50% level at .7294 is resistance.

The intermediate range is .7414 to .6991. Its retracement zone at .7252 to .7202 is controlling the near-term direction of the AUD/USD. This zone is currently being tested.

The short-term range is .6991 to .7340. Its retracement zone at .7165 to .7124 is another potential downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at .7252.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7252 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger an acceleration into the intermediate 50% level at .7202. If this fails then look for the selling to extend into the short-term 50% level at .7165.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move over .7252 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger a rally into the minor pivot at .7294. Overcoming this level will indicate the return of buyers with potential targets the minor top at .7318, followed by the main top at .7340.

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Published by

James Hyerczyk

James A. Hyerczyk has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.