AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Testing Main Retracement Zone at .7769 to .7826

The Australian Dollar is trading higher on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes from its April policy meeting showed policymakers would maintain this supportive policy stance until actual inflation is sustainably within its 2-3% target range, a goal it does not expect to meet before 2024.

At 04:38 GMT, the AUD/USD is at .7795, up 0.0037 or +0.48%.

Overall, preliminary data suggested that GDP in the March quarter was likely to have recovered further to around its pre-pandemic level, earlier than previously expected,” the minutes showed.

“Despite these generally positive developments, wage and price pressures had remained subdued and were expected to remain so for several years,” according to the minutes.

Additionally, “The economy had been operating with considerable spare capacity and the unemployment rate was still too high.”


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed earlier in the session when buyers took out yesterday’s high. A trade through .7586 will change the main trend to down.

The main range is .8007 to .7532. The AUD/USD is currently testing its retracement zone at .7769 to .7826. This zone is potential resistance. It is also controlling the near-term direction of the Forex pair.

The short-term range is .7849 to .7532. Its retracement zone at .7728 to .7690 is potential support.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the AUD/USD on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at .7769.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7770 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into .7826, followed closely by the main top at .7849.

The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the upside over .7849 so be prepared for an acceleration to the upside with the February 25 main top at .8007 the next potential upside target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7769 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a labored break with .7728 and .7690 the next potential downside targets.

Published by

James Hyerczyk

James A. Hyerczyk has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.