The Australian dollar has rallied a bit during the trading session on Monday to reach towards the 50 day EMA yet again. The 0.77 level looks to be supportive, and therefore I do not have any interest in trying to short this pair, but then again, I am not looking for a major move either. The 0.7 a level is the beginning of resistance, although I would be the first to point out that the overall sideways ranges somewhat sloppy so I would not get overly excited about this pair but recognize that there is the possibility of short-term trading back and forth.
AUD/USD Video 15.06.21
At this point, I think that the market is trying to figure out where we are going longer term when it comes to inflation and of course growth, as most of the world has been playing the reopening trade, but it is worth noting that the Aussie has stopped rallying. This suggests that there is a lot of uncertainty out there, and therefore I anticipate that we will have a bigger move, but it may quite frankly be towards the end of the summer.
In the meantime, the market is only going to do more of the same, as the Chinese and the Australians continue with a trade spat, and for what it is worth it is probably notable that the Chinese stock markets have not been acting well. On the other hand, a lot of people are going to wonder about tapering coming out of the United States. With all of this noise, I am afraid the Aussie probably has nowhere to be.
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