The Australian dollar has rallied a bit during the trading session again on Thursday, as we continue to try to get above the 0.78 handle. However, the market has not been able to do so quite yet as this area seems to be extraordinarily resistive. With that in mind, I believe that the market is probably going to go looking towards lower levels in order to pick up momentum yet again. The question now is whether or not we can break above the 0.78, and then how quickly could we get to the 0.80 level?
On the other hand, if we pull back, we could very well drop back down towards the 50 day EMA which is currently sitting at the 0.7650 region. Pay close attention to the US 10 year note, as interest rates rising in that market has seen the US dollar gained quite a bit occasionally. In this type of environment, it is very easy to see how one piece of news could throw things into disarray. I believe that breaking above the 0.78 level is going to be difficult based upon monthly charts, and the fact that it has been an important level in the past.
If we were to break down below the 50 day EMA, then I think we go looking towards the 0.75 handle, perhaps spurred on by higher interest rates coming out of America. Nonetheless, there is still hope of massive reflation, and of course commodities spiking which could drive the Aussie higher over the longer term.