The Australian dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday but give back the gains as we started to see a lot of negativity out there. Ultimately, this is a market that requires a certain amount of risk appetite but if we break down below the 0.60 level is very likely that we go crashing into the 0.58 level. This will be about whether or not there is going to be demand for global trade, and quite frankly with the shocking initial jobless claims figures coming out the United States, that’s a huge hit to global outlook as far as demand will be concerned.
AUD/USD Video 03.04.20
In order for this pair to suddenly look strong again, we need to clear the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level which is closer to the 0.6250 level. This has been a strong bounce, but quite frankly it’s a bit of a “dead cat bounce”, at least from a quick visual look at it. I fully anticipate that a lot of fear will enter the market and drive up demand for the greenback. More importantly, it’s difficult to see a driving up demand for the Australian dollar. The greenback will probably win by default in this scenario. Furthermore, there will probably be even more rapid movement in the AUD/JPY pair, which tends to move in the same direction based upon risk appetite. Rallies should continue to offer selling opportunities on short-term charts, but all things being equal it is all about the global coronavirus crisis, which seems to be a long way from ending.