E-mini S&P 500 Index

E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – May 9, 2019 Forecast

The benchmark S&P 500 Index is expected to open lower based on the pre-market futures trade. The index is being pressured by uncertainty over U.S.-China trade relations ahead of the start of two days of expected trade negotiations on Thursday and increased tariffs on Chinese imports on Friday.

The early price action suggests investors are hoping Chinese officials are successful in delaying Friday’s tariff increase in order to continue conversations as to the appropriate level of commitments in key areas.

At 12:37 GMT, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2864.75, down 22.25 or -0.77%.

E-mini S&P 500 Index
Daily June E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The next main bottom comes in at 2789.50. The main trend will change to up on a trade through 2961.25.

A change in trend is highly unlikely today. However, the steep six-day sell-off has put the index in a position to form a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom. This may not change the trend, but it could lead to a dramatic 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.

The main range is 2789.50 to 2961.25. Its retracement zone at 2875.50 to 2855.00 is currently being tested. Trader reaction to this zone should set the tone today.

On the downside, the next target zone is 2843.75 to 2816.00.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at 2865.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2865.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a rally into the 50% level at 2875.50. This price is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next potential target an uptrending Gann angle at 2898.00. This is followed by a downtrending Gann angle at 2913.25.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2865.25 will signal the presence of sellers. This should lead to a quick test of a Fibonacci level at 2855.00 and an uptrending Gann angle at 2853.50.

If 2853.50 fails as support then look for a spike into the 50% level at 2843.75. This price level is the trigger point for an acceleration into a series of potential support levels at 2821.50, 2816.00 and 2812.25.

Essentially, look for an upside bias to develop over 2875.50, and for the downside bias to continue under 2855.00.

Published by

James Hyerczyk

James A. Hyerczyk has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.