EUR/JPY: Long-Term Elliott Wave Analysis for Trading Year 2021

The EUR/JPY monthly chart is building a lengthy contracting triangle chart pattern. But the pattern seems to be running out of space.

A breakout will therefore probably take place in 2021. Let’s review the wave and chart patterns.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY 07.01.2021 Monthly chart

The EUR/JPY has possibly completed an ABCDE (pink) triangle pattern at the most recent low. The 5 wave structure could break both ways:

  • If we follow the wave patterns mentioned in the chart, then a bullish breakout has better odds (green arrows).
  • A break above the long-term moving averages and resistance trend line would confirm that breakout.
  • A break below the 21 ema zone could indicate a pullback to test the support trend line. A bullish bounce (blue arrow) is still possible.
  • A bearish breakout below the support trend line indicates an opposite triangle breakout (orange dotted arrows).

Of course, there is always the chance that a triangle pattern could become extended. The wave C might prove to be unfinished. For now, the triangle pattern is reaching a point where a breakout is becoming more likely.

It is important to keep an eye on chart patterns on lower time frames once the breakout occurs. The appearance of reversal or continuation chart patterns could indicate whether the breakout has a chance of success. Or whether it will turn into a failed breakout pattern.

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter.

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Good trading,
Chris Svorcik