EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for April 8, 2021

The Euro is edging higher on Thursday after the release of a Euro Zone producer price report that showed growth accelerated in February. Meanwhile, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the coronavirus pandemic will weigh on Euro Zone growth over the coming months but longer-term risks are receding and growth will pick up once lockdown measures can be lifted.

In the United States, first-time claims for unemployment insurance rose more than expected last week despite other signs of healing in the jobs market, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

First-time claims for the week ended April 3 totaled 744,000, well above the expectation for 694,000 from economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The total represented an increase of 16,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised 728,000.

At 12:47 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1886, up 0.0016 or +0.14%.

The European Union’s statistics office Eurostat said prices at factory gates in the 19 countries sharing the Euro rose 0.5% month-on-month for a 1.5% year-on-year rise.

Finally, Lagarde said in a statement that echoes the bank’s policy stance after its March meeting, “Overall, the risks surrounding the Euro Area growth outlook have become more balanced, although downside risks associated with the pandemic remain in the near term.”


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of the closing price reversal bottom on March 31.

The main trend will change to up on a trade through 1.1989. A move through 1.1704 will negate the reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is up. This confirms the shift in momentum. On Thursday, a new minor top was formed at 1.1915.

The EUR/USD is currently testing a retracement zone at 1.1888 to 1.1976. This zone is resistance, but it’s also controlling the near-term direction of the common currency.

On the downside, a pair of 50% levels at 1.1847 and 1.1801 are support.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the EUR/USD is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 1.1888.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1888 will indicate the presence of buyers. The next target is the minor top at 1.1915. Taking out this level could trigger an acceleration to the upside with a price cluster at 1.1947, 1.1976, 1.1989 and 1.1990. The latter is a potential trigger point for another acceleration to the upside with 1.2243 the next likely target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1888 could lead to a labored break with potential targets coming in at 1.1847 and 1.1801. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with targets coming in at 1.1738 and 1.1704.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Published by

James Hyerczyk

James A. Hyerczyk has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.