Growing Euro notes arrows over the flag of European Union.

European Equities: Economic Data from France and the U.S in Focus

Economic Calendar:

Friday, 28th May 2021

French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Apr)

French GDP (QoQ) (Q1) Final

French CPI m/m (May) Prelim

French HICP m/m (May) Prelim

The Majors

It was relatively bullish day for the European majors on Thursday.

The CAC40 led the way, rising by 0.69%, with the DAX30 and EuroStoxx600 gaining 0.28% and 0.24% respectively.

Economic data from Germany and the U.S delivered support to the majors, with a continued decline in U.S jobless claims key.

The Stats

Economic data from the Eurozone included consumer sentiment figures from Germany.

For June, the GfK is forecasting consumer confidence to rise from -8.6 to -7, based on the findings for May. Economists had forecast an increase to -5.2.

According to the latest GfK survey,

  • The economic expectations indicator surged by 41.1 points to its highest level in more than 3-years in May.
  • Supported by the sharp rise in the economic outlook, income expectations increase by 19.5 points in May. Compared with the same period of the previous year, income expectations were up more than 25 points.
  • Propensity to buy, however, fell for the first time in 4-months, falling by 7.3 points to 10 points. In spite of the decline, this was still 4.5 points higher than the same month a year earlier.

From the U.S

It was a busier day on the economic calendar.

Key stats included core durable goods, 2nd estimate GDP, and weekly jobless claims figures.

In the 1st quarter, the U.S economy expanded by 6.4%, which was in line with 1st estimates. Economists had forecast an upward revision to 6.5%.

Core durable goods rose by a further 1,0%, following a 3.2% increase in March. Economists had forecast a 0.8% rise.

Labor market conditions continued to improve. In the week ending 21st May, initial jobless claims fell from 444k to 406k. Economists had forecast a decrease to 425k.

While the major stats were skewed to the positive, an unexpected fall in durable goods orders disappointed.

In April, durable goods orders fell by 1.3%, reversing a 1.3% rise from March. Economists had forecast a 0.7% increase in orders.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a bullish day for the auto sector on Thursday. Volkswagen rallied by 2.04% to lead the way, with BMW and Continental rising by 1.24% and by 1.97% respectively. Daimler ended the day with a more modest 0.21% gain.

It was also a bullish day for the banks. Deutsche Bank rose by 0.46%, with Commerzbank rallying by 2.72%.

From the CAC, it was also a bullish day for the banks. BNP Paribas and Soc Gen ended the day up by 3.18% and by 2.97% respectively. Credit Agricole rose by 1.19%.

It was a bullish day for the French auto sector. Stellantis NV and Renault ended the day with solid gains of 3.80% and 2.78% respectively.

Air France-KLM rose by 1.16%, while Airbus SE jumped by 9.22%, the upside coming off the back of a planned ramp up in aircraft production.

On the VIX Index

It was a 2nd consecutive day in the red for the VIX on Thursday, marking a 5th day in the red from 6 sessions.

Following a 7.86% decline on Wednesday, the VIX fell by 3.57% to end the day at 16.74.

The NASDAQ slipped by 0.01%, while the Dow and the S&P500 ended the day up by 0.41% and by 0.12% respectively.

VIX 280521 Daily Chart

The Day Ahead

It’s another busy day ahead on the European economic calendar. From the Eurozone, French consumer spending, finalized GDP, and prelim inflation figures will be in focus.

Barring a marked revision to the GDP numbers, expect consumer spending and inflation to be the key drivers.

From the U.S, inflation, personal spending, and consumer sentiment figures will influence later in the day.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was up by 169 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.