Gold futures are trading at their highest level since January 8, but the buying still looks a little tentative. Low liquidity due to a major holiday in Asia could be responsible for the limited move. The catalysts behind today’s rally are growing concerns that a China virus outbreak could impact that nation’s economy, prompting investors to shed riskier assets.
At 11:30 GMT, April Comex gold is trading 1588.70, up $10.60 or +0.68%.
Daily Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1619.60 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A trade through $1542.80 will change the main trend to down.
The minor trend is also up. A trade through $1552.10 will change the minor trend to down, while shifting momentum to the downside.
The short-term range is $1619.60 to $1542.80. Trader reaction to its retracement zone at $1581.20 to $1590.30 will determine the near-term direction of the market. Buyers are trying to drive the market through $1590.30. Sellers are trying to take out $1581.20 in an effort to form a secondary lower top.
The main range is $1458.50 to $1619.60. Its retracement zone at $1539.10 to $1520.00 is major support.
Daily Technical Forecast
Based on the early price action, the direction of the April Comex gold market the rest of the session on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at $1590.30.
A sustained move over $1590.30 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out the downtrending Gann angle at $1595.80 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration into the next downtrending Gann angle at $1607.80. This is the last potential resistance angle before the $1619.60 main top.
A sustained move under $1590.30 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a retest of the 50% level at $1581.20. If this rails then look for the selling to extend into the uptrending Gann angle at $1574.80.
We could see an acceleration to the downside if $1574.80 fails with the next target angle coming in at $1558.80 to $1558.50.