This level is significant because it is a projected resistance measured from the March low. Projected levels serve as possible turning points, but do not mean anything UNTIL price action confirms.
In this case, price retreated off the 18,500 area swiftly which now gives the level credibility. Does this mean a near term top is in? Not necessarily because based on our strategy, there is no sell signal in place at the moment. It is still within reason for bullish momentum to test the high or push slightly higher.
While the broader trend is bullish, that does not justify a new swing trade long at these levels. Our strategy considers the broader location first when measuring probability and risk. We were not willing to take any risk in the 15Ks, we certainly are not going to put on a new swing trade in the 17Ks at this time.
We continue to WAIT for a retrace that offers a more attractive location, and better risk/reward in terms of a new swing trade long. NOW that 18,500 is established (a higher low), we will be looking for a higher low. This formation can reasonably develop in the high 14Ks or low 15Ks. IF Bitcoin can produce such a scenario, we will then be looking for a bullish reversal to go long. IF Bitcoin continues higher without testing a key support, then all we can do is adjust our levels until one is eventually tested. This is about high probability, low risk opportunities, not chasing profits or reacting to news.
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