Natural gas markets initially tried to rally during the course of the trading session on Tuesday to reach towards the $3.00 level. That is an area where there is a lot of psychological resistance, and therefore it is not a huge surprise to see that we cannot get above there. The candlestick certainly looks as if it is going to show signs of exhaustion, just as the previous candlestick showed signs of strength. In other words, I think we are going to consolidate in this general vicinity in order to make a bigger decision.
NATGAS Video 05.05.21
While commodities have been in a bit of a massive rally overall, the reality is that natural gas markets will continue to suffer at the hands of an oversupply issue. Furthermore, there is a gap underneath that is going to be attractive for markets, as the 50 day EMA is at the very top of that gap. Gaps do tend to get filled in the futures market sooner or later, and it certainly looks as if we are running out of momentum. That is normally the first sign of a turnaround, so at this point time I think it is likely that we are going to see a little bit of a breakdown, and therefore I would be a seller if we break down below the lows of the last couple of days.
With this, it certainly looks as if the market is going to remain choppy, and I think it is only a matter of time before this choppiness leads to a break lower. However, if we break above the $3.00 level, then there is a whole range of seller pressure above.
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