Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Slip as Tropical Threat Subsides

Natural gas prices moved lower on Monday, as tropical storm Claudet left the gulf and moved up the US coast into the Virginia area. Natural gas installations are out of the woods for that storm. According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), another storm is moving across the Atlantic that has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48-hours. According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). According to NOAA, the weather is expected to remain warmer than normal on the west-Coast and cooler than normal on the East Coast. U.S. Consumption of gas will decline in 2021 year over year, according to the EIA.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices moved lower on Monday but remain in an upward trend with support near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 3.05. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.21. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. Medium-term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. The MACD histogram is printing in negative territory with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.

U.S. Consumption Declines

U.S. consumption of natural gas will average 82.9 billion cubic feet per day down 0.5% from 2020. U.S. natural gas consumption declines because electric power generators switch to coal from natural gas as a result of rising natural gas prices. In 2021, residential and commercial natural gas consumption combined will rise by 1.2 Bcf per day from 2020 and industrial consumption will rise by 0.7 Bcf per day from 2020.