Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Whipsaw Ahead of Inventory Report

Natural gas prices whipsawed on Wednesday, closing lower on the session, unable to push above resistance. This movement comes ahead of the Thursday inventory report from the Department of Energy. Expectations are for 65 Bcf build-in stockpiles, according to survey provider Estimize.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices moved higher lower on Wednesday after testing resistance levels and failing. Target resistance is seen near the February highs at 3.06. Short-term resistance is seen near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 2.98. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.91. The 10-day moving average crossed above the 50-day moving average, which means that a medium-term uptrend is now in place. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. Medium-term momentum is positive but decelerating as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in positive territory with a sliding trajectory which points to consolidation.

The total supply of natural gas remains mostly flat. According to data from the EIA, the average total supply of natural gas rose slightly by 0.3% compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production grew by 0.9% compared with the previous report week. Average net imports from Canada decreased by 9.5% after a large increase last week. Net imports from Canada averaged 4.7 Bcf per day this week compared with 5.1 Bcf per day last week.