Oil Fundamental Analysis – Forecast for the week of September 19, 2016

Crude Oil closed at 43.23 down almost 6% for the week and down3.25% for the year.  As the producers meeting draws near traders do not think that the participants will be able to meet an agreement. Even if they freeze production their current levels are at record highs. Brent oil is trading at 46.02 down 4% for the week.  There were few signs of recovery in the oil price this week as sentiment remained dampened and fresh supplies of oil from Libya and Nigeria were anticipated on the market.

In early trading on Friday, Brent crude was priced close to US$46 with WTI above US$43 a barrel. The sluggish state of the global economy continues to confound the market and worry the key players in the energy sector.

Everyone was banking on nearer term growth in global oil demand and while demand keeps growing, it has slowed down to a less than inspiring rate.

The International Energy Agency and OPEC released their monthly oil market reports this week with OPEC expecting moderate economic growth to continue.

The organization anticipates that oil demand will rise by 1.23 million barrels a day for 2016.

The IEA said oil demand in Asia was “wobbling” and said it expected demand to grow at around 1.3 million barrels, down about 100,000 barrels a day from its previous estimate.

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This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
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Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

This Week’s Economic Events That You Should Be Monitoring:

Date Country Name Volatility Previous
9/20/2016 AUD RBA Meeting’s Minutes 3
9/20/2016 CAD BoC Governor Poloz 3
9/21/2016 AUD Mid-Year Economic Outlook 3
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 3 -0.1
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement 3
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Press Conference 3
9/21/2016 USD FOMC Economic Projections 3
9/21/2016 USD Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement 3
9/21/2016 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 3 0.5
9/21/2016 USD FOMC Press conference 3
9/21/2016 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 3 2
9/22/2016 EUR ECB President Draghi’s Speech 3
9/23/2016 AUD RBA’s Governor Lowe Speech 3

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time       Country           Auction

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Eur 2.8-3.5bn 4.5% Mar 2026,

Sep 20 11:30 UK Gbp 2.5bn 1.5% Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Sek 2bn 4.25% Feb 2019 & Sek 1.5bn 1.5% Nov 2023 bonds

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

Sep 22 19:00 US Usd 11bn 0.125% Jul 2026 TIP

Sep 26 11:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn Sep 2017 Bubill

Sep 26 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Sep 28

Sep 27 11:00 Netherlands Eur 0.75-1.25bn 4% Jan 2037 DSL

Sep 27 11:10 Italy Holds zero coupon/BTP€i auction

Sep 28 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Sep 28 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Sep 2018 Schatz

Sep 29 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction