S&P 500 Fundamental Forecast – September 19, 2016

The S&P 500 recovered 21 points to 2147.26 showing little response to the stronger US dollar as traders moved the probably of a rate increase out until December. Following yesterday’s S&P surge catalyzed by several dreadful economic news, the overnight session has seen some good old “risk off” mood which first hit European shares as a result of the previously reported $14 billion DOJ claim against Deutsche Bank, which sent Europe’s biggest bank tumbling, dragging the banking sector lower, while a continued drop in the price of oil pushed energy companies lower, and then spilling over to US equity futures which were down 10 points at last check.

The recent selloff pushed the S&P 500 below 2150, the bottom of its summer trading range. The next important trading range doesn’t begin until the S&P 500 gets into the 2120-2115 area. If they get there, though, it’s a doozy. There are no less than five distinct technical trends that converge there, said a certified market technician.

JPMorgan expects the S&P 500 to end the year at 2,000, representing a roughly 6 percent decline from its current level, making it the most bearish of its peers on the Street. In this scenario, the market leaders are poised for the biggest fall, while some sector laggards will do relatively better.

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 September 19, 2016

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Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Holds OLO auction

Sep 20 11:30 UK Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction