Last week I found “The S&P500 is still in a 100% Bullish uptrend … and a move below the early-March low (SPX3725) is needed to confirm a more pronounced correction down to SPX3250-3500. Until then, the index can still try to move higher to SPX4065-4185…”
Fast forward, and the S&P500 (SPX) is now trading at SPX4095. Target zone reached. So was that it? Using the (EWP) see figure 1 below, I think there’s still more upside in store first before the subsequent more significant multi-week correction unfolds.
Figure 1. S&P500 hourly chart
The S&P500 can reach SPX4375 assuming standard Fibonacci-based wave extensions.
In this update, I want to focus on what is shown inside the larger green square. I’ve drawn in the typical 3rd, 4th, and 5th wave targets for a standard, Fibonacci-based impulse pattern that started from the early-March low (red wave-iv). Green (minor) waves 1 and 2 have been completed, and now wave-3 is underway, which should ideally target between SPX4210-4275. Then I expect a wave-4 down to around current levels (SPX4110+/-10) before a last 5th wave (green minor-5) rallies price to SPX4375. This EWP path forward is based on the assumption the index will follow a textbook EWP impulse pattern higher. There is nothing to tell me it will not, but it can, of course, always deviate. To be determined. But for now, this is all I can go by.
Thus, as long as the index stays above the grey (minute) wave-i high at SPX3978 on any short-term pullback, while on its way to ideally SPX4210-4275, then the in Figure 1 shown EWP path (grey arrows) should unfold, and the index will reach higher than I initially anticipated March 11th.