This year, TTF Day-Ahead traded over the course of April have been, on average, more expensive than it was three months before, even with a sharp decrease on Friday, 23 April. As the causes of this month’s rise in European gas contracts – abnormally cold temperatures, delays in injections into the storages, Norwegian outages, record-high carbon prices, etc. – were being analysed multiple times, it may be interesting to look at the current developments from a different angle, by comparing with those a year ago.
Apr 2021 is the very opposite of Apr 2020 for the regional gas market, except perhaps in the area of LNG imports. This is largely due to the easing of Covid restrictions across Europe, but another thing is important in that context.
The significant difference in market environments, external backgrounds as well as expectations among players, now and then, yet again unsettles many of our assumptions about the speed at which a once static commodity has been recently evolved. Not so long ago, the conditions could not have changed so drastically over the period of 12 months, but in today’s reality even months can make a huge difference. With European decarbonization plans taking shape and competition between pipeline and LNG intensifying, high volatility will likely be more common in the gas market.
The opinions expressed in this blog are mine only and do not reflect the views of my employer