During the European session, we anticipate the release of the British retail sales for October at 11:30 MT. Analysts predict an increase by 6 basis points. Higher digits will support the British pound, which is rising amid the current Brexit optimism of an approved draft Brexit agreement by the cabinet of Ministers.
The United States is awaiting the releases of retail sales and core retail sales at 15:30 MT time. Experts forecast the total retail sales to increase by 0.6% in October. At the same time, the level of retail sales excluding automobiles will rise by 0.5%. Higher-than-expected levels will be supportive for the greenback.
In addition, the speech by the Fed Chair Powell at 18:30 can bring some optimism to US dollar bulls.
Earlier, Fed Chair Jerome Powell could not help the USD to recover from the weak CPI release. On H4, the US dollar index could not hold its price at 97 level. If the USD gains support today from the retail release, it will rise towards the resistance at 97.21. Otherwise, it can test the 50 MA and extend falls towards the support at 96.35, if the Fed Chair fails to deliver a positive message.
Now let’s look at GBP/USD chart. Yesterday the GBP got the support after the draft Brexit agreement was approved by the Cabinet. However, the doubts are still circulating among the ministers and result in uncertainties for the GBP traders. If today’s release of the retail sales is higher than expected, the GBP will rise above the resistance at 1.3035. If more negative news on Brexit is published, it will fall towards the support at 1.2896.