The real story, though? We’ve still got the Dow, S&P, and Russell firmly at record highs.
This week should be full of excitement for the indexes. Will we see more record highs? Will the Nasdaq catch up and recover? How will the newly signed $1.9 trillion “America Rescue Plan” impact the market? Will inflation fears and accelerating bond yields spook investors again?
As you can see, there are clearly questions right now for stocks- despite the wheels in motion for pent-up consumer spending and a strong stock rally. Plus, we’ll start having many retail investors with an extra $1,400 to spend looking to have a little fun.
Inflation fears and surging bond yields are still a concern and have caused significant volatility for growth stocks. But let’s have a little perspective here. Bond yields are still at a historically low level, and the Fed Funds Rate remains 0%. Plus, jobless claims beat estimates again and came in at 712,000. This is nearly the lowest they’ve been in a whole year. Last week’s inflation data also came in more tamer than expected.
So what should you pay attention to this week?
More inflation data, jobless claims, and consumer sentiment will be released throughout the week, for one.
But pay incredibly close attention to the Fed. Bonds still remain the market’s biggest wild card. With the Fed meeting Tuesday and Wednesday, bond yields could take their cue from what they say. No action is expected to be taken, and the Fed is expected to indicate more substantial growth. Fed officials are also not expected to alter their interest rate outlook and may stick to the plan of keeping rates this low through 2023.
If this goes as expected, bond yields could potentially pop again, reinvigorating the rotation into value and cyclical plays and out of tech and growth plays.
Time will tell what happens.
My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one to help people who needed help instead of the ultra-high net worth.
With that said, to sum it up:
There is optimism but signs of concern. The market has to figure itself out. A further downturn is possible, but I don’t think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market, will happen any time soon.
Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck.
Is the Dow *Gulp* Overbought?
Figure 1- Dow Jones Industrial Average $INDU
Not much new to report on this. Except for that, it keeps ticking up towards overbought territory and hitting record highs. Year-to-date, we’re now up about 7.1%- almost double what the S&P and Nasdaq have done so far this year.
It also managed to gain over 4% this past week.
I don’t feel that we’re buyable at all right now. If you have exposure, HOLD and let it ride. Maybe start to consider taking some profits too.
The index could greatly benefit from the stimulus package due to all of the cyclical stocks it holds. I can definitely foresee some pops in the index as investors digest the unprecedented amount of money being pumped into the economy, coupled with reopening excitement. But you can’t expect the index to keep going up like this and setting records every day. Plus, the RSI is almost 69 and showing overbought signs.
So, where do we go from here?
Many analysts believe the index could end the year at 35,000, and the wheels are in motion for a furious rally. But you could do better for a buyable entry point.
From my end, I’d prefer to stay patient, assess the situation, and find better buying opportunities.
My call on the Dow stays a HOLD, but we’re approaching SELL.
For an ETF that aims to correlate with the Dow’s performance, the SPDR Dow Jones ETF (DIA) is a reliable option.
For more of my thoughts on the market, such as tech, if small-caps are buyable, inflation, and emerging market opportunities, sign up for my premium analysis today.
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For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Matthew Levy, CFA
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
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All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.