Canadian Dollar

USD/CAD Daily Price Forecast – The Loonie was Taking Rounds Near 1.3400 levels on the Backdrop of Crude Plunge

After getting hammered down twice on the last day, the Loonie displayed a similar struggle mode today. The USD/CAD pair started the day near 1.3378 levels. Within the first six hours, it got elevated reaching near 1.3397 levels. Later the pair continued the uptrend touching 1.3411 levels.

The Federal Reserve kept its status quo with regards to interest rates ignoring Donald Trump’s comments for an interest rate cut.

The US Dollar Index weakened today, which added to the struggle in the Loonie pair. The Greenback was trading within the range 97.54/34 levels. The upcoming US events need a closer watch as it may allow the pair to soar.

The Crude Oil WTI Futures softened over the continued US oil stockpiles. The API had published a report yesterday listing a higher US Crude stock of 6.8 million barrels. However, the global oil supply remained lower due to the OPEC supply cuts and US sanctions.

USDCAD Impacting Events

CAD Specific Events

20:15 GMT

The BoC’s Governor Stephen Poloz will deliver a speech on Monetary Policy. He would discuss the various policy decisions of the Monetary Policy Committee.

13:30 GMT

Canadian April Markit Manufacturing PMI – The Markit Economic will release this PMI figure. Anything above 50 is taken as “bullish,” while below 50 is “bearish.” The consensus estimate this PMI figure to come around 51.5 points to the previous 50.5 points.

USD Specific Events

The US reports for April are as follows –

18:00 GMT

Fed’s Monetary Policy Statements, Fed Rates Decision, and FOMC Press Conference (High Volatile) – The consensus estimates remain in-line with the previous Interest Rates to come near 2.5 percent.

14:00 GMT

ISM Manufacturing PMI (High Volatile) – The market analysts expect a 0.3 percent decrease in the numbers this time. The previous Manufacturing PMI stood around 55.3 points.

13:45 GMT

Markit Manufacturing PMI (Mid Volatile) – The street analysts take on a bearish stance, and they anticipate the numbers to come near 52.4 points.

14:00 GMT

ISM Prices Paid  (Mid Volatile) – The market stays bearish with their numbers. The consensus estimates a 0.8 percent hike in the numbers and to arrive close to  55.1 points.

Technical Analysis

USDCAD 60 Min 01 May 2019
USDCAD 60 Min 01 May 2019

The Loonie has just entered into the upper vicinity of the Bollinger Bands (BB), showcasing future bullish trend. However, in the near term, there seems a downtrend was seeing the SMA position. The significant 200-days SMA, 100-days SMA, and 50-days SMA stood well above the pair, revealing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was drifting just near the 40 levels. On the upper side, there remains a substantial amount of resistances like the 1.3481 and 1.3491 levels. On the flip side, there are tow major support lines at 1.3378 and 1.3338 levels.