The US dollar has gone back and forth during the trading session on Wednesday again, as we continue to dance around just below the ¥108 level. At this point, if we can break above the ¥108 level we could go as high as ¥109 without much trouble. To the downside, the ¥107 level should cause major problems. Ultimately, the market breaks down below there could send this market towards the ¥105 level. At this point, this is a market that is fighting back and forth to determine which one of the safety currency is the world wants to own. At this point, it is an argument that I am not willing to have and therefore I am on the sidelines. Ultimately, I think that the market will make a decision but right now this is simply a gauge to determine which one of the safety currencies you want to own against riskier currencies.
USD/JPY Video 23.04.20
For example, if the US dollar rallies against the Japanese yen, then I want to short something like the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar as it is the stronger of the two safety currencies. Alternately, if this pair falls, I would rather short the NZD/JPY pair. That being said, once we break out of this tight range, then you can play this market by itself. In the meantime, the USD/JPY pair is essentially a technical indicator as to where I will be trading other markets. I think that we are in for a continuation of the quiet trading that we have seen for the last couple of weeks.