USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis May 31, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD continues to skyrocket, on risk aversion and safe haven movement. The pair is now trading at 1.0308 as the USD continues to climb. The Dollar Index is holding just under 83.00 at 82.98.

Risk Aversion has exploded today as the euro is falling and has hit a low below 1.24 and continues to drop. The EU turned into a three ring circus, with Spain as the main attraction and a lot of he said, she said as the Spanish Prime Minister tried to clarify his statements of earlier in the week, about funding the Spanish banks. Rumors are that the ECB declined the offer, while the ECB is claiming they have never been officially approached by Spain. Interest rates in Spain and Italy soared today, with Spain at 6.7% and Italy right behind. In the third ring is Greece where new polls show the anti-euro party now in the lead.

Unfortunately for the CAD, there has been no support for the Looney and with oil prices trading below 89.00 the overall sentiment for the CAD is negative.

In the US today, the housing data was negative well under forecast, but it hardly made a ripple in the strength of the USD.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data for May 30, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

May 30

 

JPY

 

 

 

BoJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Construction Work Done (QoQ) 

5.5%

 

3.0% 

 

-3.4% 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

1.1% 

   

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

KOF Leading Indicators 

0.81

 

0.48 

 

0.43 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Italian 10-Year BTP Auction 

6.03%

 

 

 

5.66% 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 

Previous

 

May 31

12:15

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

119K

12:30

CAD

Current Account

-10.3B

12:30

USD

Prelim GDP q/q

2.2%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

370K

13:45

USD

Chicago PMI

56.2

15:00

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

0.9M

 

Jun 1

12:30

CAD

GDP m/m

-0.2%

12:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

115K

12:30

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.1%

12:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

0.2%

12:30

USD

Personal Spending m/m

0.3%

14:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

54.8

Government Bond Auctions

May 31  14:30  Sweden 

Jun 04  10:00  Norway 

Jun 05  00:30  Japan  Jun 05  09:30 

Jun 05 14:30  Sweden 

Jun 06  09:30  Germany 

Jun 06  09:30  Portugal 

Jun 06 14:30  UK 

Jun 07  00:30  Japan 

Jun 07  08:30  Spain 

Jun 07  08:50  France 

Jun 07  09:10  Sweden 

Jun 07  15:00  US 

Jun 08  10:00  Belgium 

Jun 08  15:30  Italy 

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