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The Week Ahead – A Busier Economic Calendar and the FED to Keep the Markets Busy

On the Macro

It’s a busier week ahead on the economic calendar, with 60 stats in focus in the week ending 18th June. In the week prior, 45 stats had been in focus.

For the Dollar:

Early in the week, Wholesale inflation and retail sales figures will be in focus.

While inflation figures remain a key area of interest, retail sales will likely be the main focal point.

On Thursday, Philly FED Manufacturing and weekly jobless claim figures will also influence.

Other stats include industrial production, housing sector data, and manufacturing numbers out of NY State. We don’t expect these to have too much influence in the week, however.

On the monetary policy front, it will be the FED’s June monetary policy decision that will be the main event.

The markets are expecting discussions on a tapering to the asset purchasing program to begin. Will there be talk of a shift in sentiment towards interest rates? The projections will hold the key.

In the week, the Dollar ended the week up by 0.46% to 90.555.

For the EUR:

It’s a relatively quiet week on the economic data front.

Eurozone industrial production, trade, and wage growth figures are due out Monday through Wednesday.

With little else for the markets to consider, we can expect the numbers to influence.

Finalized inflation figures for May are also due out for France, Germany, Italy, and the Eurozone.

Barring marked revisions to prelim figures, however, the numbers should have limited impact on the EUR.

The EUR ended the week down by 0.48% to $1.2108.

For the Pound:

It’s a busier week ahead on the economic calendar.

Employment figures are due out on Tuesday. Expect claimant counts and the unemployment rate to be the key numbers.

On Wednesday, inflation figures will also influence ahead of retail sales figures on Friday.

Impressive numbers will fuel speculation of a near-term move by the BoE. Much will depend upon the government’s reopening plans, however.

On the monetary policy front, BoE Gov. Bailey is scheduled to speak in the week. Expect any forward guidance to influence.

The Pound ended the week down by 0.35% to $1.4107.

For the Loonie:

It’s another quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

At the start of the week, manufacturing sales figures are due out ahead of inflation figures on Wednesday.

Expect the inflation figures to be key.

Crude oil inventory numbers will also influence mid-week.

The Loonie ended the week down 0.61% to C$1.2158 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s a quiet week ahead.

Employment figures for May are due out on Thursday. The numbers remain key, with the RBA unwilling to make a move until the slack is removed. Weak numbers would certainly test support levels.

On the monetary policy front, the RBA meeting minutes early in the week will provide direction.

The Aussie Dollar ended the week down by 0.40% to $0.7708.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s also a quiet week ahead.

1st quarter current account and GDP numbers are due out.

Expect the GDP number on Thursday to be key.

Economic data from China will also influence early in the week.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week down by 1.16% to $0.7130.

For the Japanese Yen:

Finalized industrial production figures are due out at the start of the week. Expect any marked revisions to influence ahead of trade data on Wednesday.

Inflation figures on Friday should have a muted impact, with the BoJ in action at the end of the week.

The Japanese Yen fell by 0.13% to ¥109.66 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

Industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investments will be in focus.

Following disappointing numbers for April, the markets will be looking for improvement. Weaker numbers would test support for riskier assets on Wednesday.

The Chinese Yuan ended the week down by 0.05% to CNY6.3988 against the U.S Dollar.

Geo-Politics

There are no major risks to consider in the week ahead. Key takeaways from the G7 will likely influence, however.

As always, however, the markets will need to continue monitoring chatter from Capitol Hill and Beijing.

The Iranian presidential election is in the week ahead…