Currency

The Week Ahead – A Particularly Busy Economic Calendar and Central Bank Chatter in Focus

On the Macro

It’s a particularly busy week ahead on the economic calendar, with 79 stats in focus in the week ending 4th June. In the week prior, 41 stats had been in focus.

For the Dollar:

ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing numbers on Tuesday and Thursday will be key.

Expect the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI to be the key driver on Thursday.

Ahead of nonfarm payroll figures on Friday, the ADP nonfarm and weekly jobless claims figures will also influence on Thursday.

At the end of the week, expect plenty of interest in May’s NFP numbers. A sizeable increase is going to be needed following disappointing numbers for April.

On the monetary policy front, FOMC member chatter will also need monitoring. FED Chair Powell is also scheduled to speak on Friday.

From Capitol Hill, U.S President Biden’s spending plans will also be in focus.

In the week, the Dollar ended the week up by 0.02% to 90.031.

For the EUR:

It’s a busier week on the economic data front.

Private sector PMIs for Italy and Spain are due out on Tuesday and Thursday. Finalized PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone are also due out.

Barring any material revisions, expect Italy and the Eurozone’s numbers to be key.

Through the week, prelim inflation figures for the Eurozone and member states and retail sales and unemployment figures from Germany will also influence.

Wrapping things up at the end of the week will be retail sales figures for the Eurozone.

The EUR ended the week up by 0.08% to $1.2192.

For the Pound:

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

Finalized private sector PMIs for May are due out along with construction PMI figures.

Expect any revision to the services PMI to be key on Thursday.

The Pound ended the week up by 0.27% to $1.4188.

For the Loonie:

It’s a particularly busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

Early in the week, RMPI and GDP numbers will influence on Monday and Tuesday.

At the end of the week, employment change and Ivey PMI numbers will also draw interest.

While the numbers will provide the Loonie with direction, expect private sector PMIs from key economies to also provide direction.

The Loonie ended the week down 0.08% to C$1.2076 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s a busier week ahead.

Early in the week, private sector credit, manufacturing, and company gross operating profit figures will be in focus.

The focus will then shift to key stats in the 2nd half of the week.

1st quarter GDP numbers on Thursday and retail sales and trade data on Friday will provide direction.

On the monetary policy front, the RBA is also in action on Tuesday, however…

The Aussie Dollar ended the week down by 0.26% to $0.7712.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s a quieter week ahead.

Business confidence and building consent figures are due out on Monday and Tuesday. Expect business confidence figures for May to be key on Monday.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week up by 1.06% to $0.7250.

For the Japanese Yen:

It is a relatively busy week ahead.

Industrial production and retail sales figures get things going on Monday. Both sets of numbers will draw interest.

On Tuesday, capital spending numbers for the 1st quarter will also influence.

At the end of the week, expect household spending numbers to also provide direction.

Finalized private sector PMIs for May are also due out. Barring revisions to prelim figures, however, these should have a muted impact on the Yen,

The Japanese Yen fell by 0.82% to ¥109.85 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

It’s also a busy week ahead.

Private sector PMIs for May are due out. While the NBS figures on Monday will draw interest, the market’s favored Caixin PMIs on Tuesday and Thursday will be key.

There have been some disappointing stats from China in recent weeks. Weaker private sector activity would test support for riskier assets.

The Chinese Yuan ended the week up by 1.02% to CNY6.3685 against the U.S Dollar.

Geo-Politics

There are no major risks to consider in the week ahead.

As always, however, the markets will need to continue monitoring chatter from Capitol Hill and Beijing. There’s also the run up to the elections in Iran to keep an eye on.