Technical Checks For USD/CAD, EUR/CAD & CAD/JPY: 03.08.2018

USD/CAD

Absence of strong up-moves after the USDCAD’s recent U-turn isn’t a sign of its fresh south-run as 100-day SMA and support-line of short-term descending trend-channel, at 1.2965-60, still stand tall to limit the pair’s decline. In case if the pair refrains to respect the 1.2965-60 support-confluence, more than six-month old ascending trend-line, near 1.2920, followed by the 1.2900 round-figure, could challenge the sellers. Assuming that the quote closes beneath the 1.2900 mark on a D1 basis, then it can plunge to 1.2800 and the 1.2740 support-levels. On the upside, the 1.3040, the 1.3080 and the 50-day SMA level of 1.3110 seem immediate resistances for the pair to confront during its advances. Should prices rally beyond 1.3110, the 1.3160, the 1.3220 and the channel-resistance figure of 1.3235 may gain market attention.

EUR/CAD

Ever since the EURCAD slipped below 50-day SMA, it never climbed it back on the daily closing basis, which in-turn signal brighter chances for the pair’s further downturn to 1.5000 psychological magnet. However, an upward slanting trend-line, at 1.4950, could restrict the pair’s additional drop past-1.5000, if not then the 1.4855, the 1.4800 and the 1.4730-20 horizontal-region may appear in the Bears’ radar to target. Meanwhile, the 1.5145, the 1.5200 and the 1.5255, comprising 50-day SMA & 50% Fibonacci Retracement, are likely adjacent resistances that might question the pair’s recovery. Given the pair’s ability to surpass 1.5255 barrier, the 1.5315, the 1.5370 and the 100-day SMA level of 1.5420 can entertain the buyers prior to troubling them with 1.5510 resistance-line.

CAD/JPY

Not only 200-day SMA but upper-line of “Rising-Wedge” Bearish technical pattern also confines the CADJPY’s rise around 85.85 and the 86.05 respectively. As a result, pair’s profit-booking to 85.20 and the 85.00 formation support can’t be ignored. Though, break of 85.00 could confirm the bearish pattern and might quickly drag the quote to 50-day & 100-day SMA confluence region of 84.40-35, the 83.80 and the 83.50-45 consecutive rest-points. Alternatively, pair’s successful break of 86.05 negates the downturn signaling formation and may escalate the up-moves in direction to the 86.45 and the 87.00 nearby resistances. If the pair clears the 87.00 hurdle to north, it can jump to 87.75 and the 88.15-20 levels.

Will the USD/CAD Bulls Hold Their Nerve?

Any signs of recovery were hammered on July 20 when the pairing fell 140 pips on news that Canada’s May retail sales had shot up 2%, rather than the forecast 1.1%. Recent comments by US President Donald Trump about his disdain for domestic interest rate hikes have also put pressure on the US Dollar.

But are we seeing an end to the USD/CAD upward momentum, or is this simply a slight pullback before the chart begins moving north again? The answer will likely be determined more by what Mr. Trump and the US is doing, rather than anything happening in Canada. That’s not a dig at Canada, more a reflection of the importance of the US dollar to all world markets.

The Canadian dollar, steady as she goes

The Canadians are widely seen as being dependable folk, and their currency is also regarded as one of the world’s most stable, traded by long-term investors and intraday traders in large numbers. Interest has increased locally because residents now benefit from using brokers with $1 million protection offered by the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF), which pays out if a broker goes belly up.

Because the Canadian dollar is the fifth most commonly held currency, it usually does not show the sort of hair-raising price volatility that befalls smaller currencies. But that’s not to say traders can’t take advantage. Intraday corrections come thick and fast on the back of regular scheduled economic news announcements, just like the Retail Sales one on Friday, July 20. This is a monthly statistic, along with Labour Force Survey (Canada’s employment figures), Consumer Price Index and Industrial Price Index. Traders also eagerly await the quarterly Gross Domestic Product figures.

But it’s commodity prices that have a huge impact on the Canadian dollar. The country relies heavily on its natural resources of oil, lumber and natural gas, and exports much of this abroad. This means that not only is foreign demand a pressure factor, but also the price of crude oil itself. When the price of crude slumped from US$105 to US$45 in 2014/15, Canada’s economy took a hit, sending it into a downturn for the first time in years. It’s often said that commodity prices, especially oil, have a greater influence on the Canadian dollar than economic news, and it’s no great surprise given the country’s reliance on its natural resources. Oil prices rise since the beginning of 2018 which helped the Canadain dollar to remain strong versus the greenback and other currencies. As long as oil prices rise, the Canadian dollar might be a correct position.

For the long-term investor, most of these volatility factors (economic news and the price of crude oil, for example) can be exploited by riding on the back of a long-term trend. But as we’ve seen, in a currency pairing like USD/CAD it takes two to tango. And when you’re dance partner is the US, it tends to take the lead.

USD volatility, the Trump effect

The US dollar is subject to volatility like any other currency, with changes to supply and demand, commodity prices and regular economic data all pushing or pulling the price up or down. As the most traded currency in the world, second-guessing which way the USD will go has become an art form. But now there is a new factor influencing the currency’s fortunes, and it’s one that is becoming rather hard to predict.

Step forward Donald Trump, the US President whose habit of speaking his mind often has ripple effects in the markets. While his imposition of trade tariffs with the European Union, Canada and China buoyed sentiment, the currency dropped when he openly questioned the Fed’s policy of interest rate hikes, suggesting it was keeping the dollar too high. Mr. Trump wants a lower dollar, making it cheaper for the US to do business abroad. And if there’s one thing we’ve come to learn about Mr. Trump, it’s that he likes to get what he wants.

USD/CAD long or short?

With all this variance and the unpredictability of looming trade wars, Brexit and maybe a currency war, too, how can you call what the future movement of the USD/CAD pairing will be? You can certainly look at our own financial market forecasts and analysis, but your willingness to jump in might be influenced by your desire to try to cash in on short-term movements or to hang in there for the long term.

As we’ve seen, the long-term trend for USD/CAD is bullish. The USD has been consistently strong, while the Canadian dollar less so. If you believe Mr. Trump won’t have any influence on the Federal Reserve’s decision making on interest rates, which he really shouldn’t as its meant to be impartial to political interference, then interest rates will continue on an upward curve, which in turn will keep the US dollar high. However, even Mr. Trump talking about interest rates has brought a dollar price correction, and any hint that the Fed might actually shift policy might make the dollar price fall further.

What is clear is that the Canadian economy is going through a purple patch. While retail sales are up, so too is inflation, with the figure at a six-year high of 2.5% in June, fuelled by increasing gas costs. What that means is the possibility of another increase in interest rates, which would drive up the Canadian dollar, and potentially drive down the USD/CAD, but only if the US dollar continues to weaken.

So, with all things considered, and without a crystal ball to give you the answer, the best bet might well be to follow the long-term trend and go long on USD/CAD. But intraday traders can lick their lips at short-term volatility, so long as they’re on the right side of any correction. Following Mr. Trump on Twitter now seems as important as watching out for key financial news, and it’s probably a lot more entertaining.

USD/JPY Fundamental Daily Forecast – Yen Spikes Higher on Reports BOJ Officials Considering Policy Change

The Dollar/Yen is trading sharply lower early Monday as investors continue to react to a combination of potentially bearish fundamental and technical events.

At 0618 GMT, the USD/JPY is trading 110.931, down 0.532 or 0.47%.

The forex pair opened lower early Monday in reaction to U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments on the greenback’s strength last Friday and his criticism of Fed policy on Thursday. The Japanese Yen also spiked higher on reports Japan’s central bank is debating moves to reduce its massive monetary stimulus.

Essentially, Trump expressed concerns that the Fed’s plan to raise interest rates at least two more times this year will drive the U.S. Dollar higher, potentially hurting the U.S. economy.

The Dollar/Yen was also pressured after Reuters and other media reported that the Bank of Japan is actively discussing changes to its policies. The BOJ is scheduled to hold its next monetary policy meeting on July 30 and 31.

The USD/JPY is currently trading at a two-week, having lost more than two percent from its six-month peak of 113.18 hit less than a week ago.

USDJPY
Daily USD/JPY

Technical factors are also driving the price action early Monday. On Thursday, the USD/USD formed a technically bearish closing price reversal top on the daily chart. The chart pattern was confirmed on Friday and reaffirmed earlier today.

The main range is defined as the May 29 bottom at 108.114 and the July 19 top at 113.210. Its first major target is the 50% to 61.8% retracement zone at 110.662 to 110.061. Buyers could step in on a test of this zone. Triggering a retracement of the break from 113.210 to today’s intraday low.

The nearest short-term bottom is 110.280. A trade through this level will change the main trend to down on the daily chart.


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Forecast

Trump’s comments may have ignited the initial sell-off in the Dollar/Yen, however, they are now an afterthought due to the reports that the BOJ is considering a shift in monetary policy. The story is still breaking and details are sparse, but investors are wasting no time waiting for an official word which probably won’t come out until next week’s central bank meeting.

According to Bloomberg, the BOJ will likely emphasize in its communication that allowing JGB 10-year yields to rise higher than 0.10% will add flexibility to monetary policy, and it is not a tightening.

Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said, “I know absolutely nothing about the basis for those reports,” when asked about the media reports while he was in Buenos Aires to attend a meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors.

“Largest Bilateral Trade Deal Ever” – Trade Deal Between Japan and the European Union Covers 600 Million People

The trade agreement will probably secure the global trading system from the threat of protectionism and covers almost a third of the global economy.

This agreement will eliminate all the tariffs on nearly all goods between Japan and the European Union and covers 600 million people altogether. Among all products, it will remove tariffs for exports like wine, Olive oil, and Cheese.

In addition, Japanese automobile makers and electronics firms will have fewer obstacles in the European Union.

The president of the European Council, Donald Tusk, stated: “largest bilateral trade deal ever.”

He added in a written statement: “Relations between the European Union and Japan have never been stronger, geographically we are far apart, But politically and economically we could hardly be any closer.”

This Agreement comes as an opposition to President Donald Trump tariffs on China and the EU and the rising threat of trade war.

According to CNN Baker McKenzie partner, Ross Denton said the deal signed Tuesday sends “a very strong signal to the US Administration that the EU and Japan, two major trade partners of the US, both see the benefits of removing barriers and reducing, not increasing tariffs.”

Cecilia Malmström, the EU trade commissioner, said that last month the US closed the door to Europe although the Europeans ware willing to lower its tariffs. The US deepened the conflict as with the implementation of new tariffs on Aluminum and Steel.

Another negative act by President Trump was at the start of his presidency when he canceled the Trans-Pacific Partnership which was another deal that lowered tariffs for the eleven remaining signatories. The deal is expected to start in 2019 after approved by both sides.

This article was written by Marios Athinodorou, TeleTrade’s market analyst, and commentator. Among others, Marios is delivering weekly trading webinars. Sign up for upcoming webinars here.

Important CAD Pairs’ Technical Overview: 12.07.2018

USD/CAD

USDCAD’s bounce off the three-month old ascending trend-line presently struggles with 1.3200-1.3210 horizontal-region in order to justify its strength in targeting the 1.3260 and the 1.3340 resistances. In case the pair manage to extend its recovery beyond 1.3340 on a daily closing basis, the 1.3385 and the 1.3470, comprising 61.8% FE can please the Bulls. On the contrary, the 1.3130-20 is likely immediate support for the pair to test during its pullback before revisiting the 1.3060 TL figure. Assuming that the quote keep declining beneath the 1.3060, the 50-day SMA level of 1.3025 and the 1.3000 round-figure can act as buffers prior to highlighting the 1.2925 mark, encompassing 100-day SMA.

EUR/CAD

Having failed to surpass the 1.5440-45 resistance-zone, the EURCAD seems inclined to re-test the 1.5285-80 support-area; however, the 1.5340 can offer intermediate halt to the pair. Should prices dip below 1.5280, the 1.5220 and the 1.5150 are expected following rests that can be availed if holding short positions. Let’s say the pair surpasses the 1.5445 upside barrier, then it can quickly rise to 1.5480 and the 1.5540 resistances. Moreover, pair’s successful rally above 1.5540 can push buyers to aim for the 1.5585 and the 61.8% FE level of 1.5700.

GBP/CAD

Even after bouncing off the 1.7285-95 support-region, the GBPCAD has to clear the 1.7460-70 hurdle if the pair is to make itself eligible for the 1.7515 and the 1.7550 resistances. Given the pair crosses the 1.7550, the 1.7580, the 1.7615 and the 1.7670 could try challenging the optimists ahead of channeling market attention towards recent high of 1.7770. Alternatively, the 1.7360, the 1.7360 and the 1.7295-85 may offer nearby supports to the pair, breaking which the 1.7250 and the 1.7200 could entertain the sellers. During the pair’s additional declines below 1.7200, the 1.7110 and the 1.7050 may appear in the traders’ radar.

CAD/JPY

With more than six-month old descending trend-line restricting the CADJPY’s immediate upside, together with overbought RSI, the pair is likely witnessing profit-booking towards the 84.70 and the 84.40 but 100-day SMA level of 83.95 may limit its further south-run. If the pair refrains to respect the 83.95 SMA number, the 83.50, the 83.00 and an upward slanting trend-line, at 82.40, should be watched carefully. Meanwhile, pair’s ability to run above the 85.45 TL on a daily closing basis can escalate its north-run to 85.90 and the 200-day SMA level of 86.20 whereas 86.70-80 horizontal-region can provide tough resistance afterwards. In case prices continue rallying beyond 86.80, the 87.80 and the 88.30 could become crucial.

Things to Consider When Trading the Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is an important currency part of the Forex dashboard. As part of the DXY (Dollar Index), where it holds almost a ten percent stake, the CAD reflects the strengths and weaknesses of the Canadian economy.

Speaking of Canada, the country stands for a symbol of capitalism and freedom. Part of NAFTA (North America Free Trade Agreement), Canada has a performant economic model many countries only dream about.

The CAD pairs in Forex trading are favorite among retail traders. The leading one, apparently, is the USDCAD pair, as it considers the CAD against the world’s reserve currency, the U.S. Dollar.

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The funny thing is that the two countries share a common border, so the two economies are interconnected in more ways that many traders believe.

In trading, when buying or selling a currency pair, traders analyze the two economies corresponding to the currencies that make up the pair. In this case, the United States and the Canadian economy.

Because the United States economy is the largest in the world, and the USD is the world’s reserve currency, the economic data out of the United States dominates the economic calendar.

As for the CAD and CAD pairs, here’s the most important economic data to consider:

  • Bank of Canada interest rate decisions and press conferences
    • Bank of Canada (BOC) meets every six weeks, on a Wednesday, to set the rate on the Canadian Dollar. Traders oversee the decision as the press conference that follows offers more details that influence the value of the Canadian Dollar
    • the higher the interest rate, the better for the currency
  • Unemployment Rate and the Employment Change numbers
    • The jobs data is typically released at the same time with the NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) in the United States – first Friday of every month. However, sometimes a one week delay may exist between the two.
    • Positive data is good for the CAD
    • When released at the same time with the NFP, the USDCAD pair is difficult to trade due to bi-directional flows
  • CPI or Inflation
    • The Consumer Price Index or inflation is part of the BOC mandate
    • Higher inflation leads to higher interest rate, so it’s bullish for the currency
    • Lower inflation triggers lower CAD
  • Ivey PMI
    • In Canada, there’s only one PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) release, unlike in other countries
    • Values higher than 50 are positive for the CAD
    • Lower values than 50 signal contraction for the Candian economy
  • Oil prices and U.S. oil inventories
    • Canada is an energy-driven economy as it is a big oil producer. Hence, the price of oil has a big impact on the GDP (Gross Domestic Product).
    • Lower oil prices trigger lower CAD
    • Higher oil prices lead to strong CAD
    • S. oil inventories cause fluctuations in the CAD pairs because most of the Canadian oil exports go to the United States
    • Lower U.S. inventories trigger a bullish CAD reaction
    • Higher U.S. inventories trigger a bearish CAD reaction
Canada is an energy-driven economy as it is a big oil producer

Conclusion

As a leading currency in Forex trading, the Canadian Dollar is part of essential currency pairs. It fluctuates freely, hence it is a source of potential successful speculation. Understanding what drives its moves is critical for Forex traders.

Canadian Dollar Steady as BoC Expected to Hike Interest Rates

The UK’s first monthly GDP release by the ONS showed that the economy had advanced 0.3% on the month in June. However, the positive GDP growth report was offset by manufacturing production which rose 0.4% missing estimates of a 1.0% increase. Construction output, however, beat estimates, rising strongly by 2.9% on the month. Industrial production, on the other hand, weakened, falling 0.4%.

Data from Germany showed that the ZEW economic sentiment index fell to -24.7 while the Eurozone economic sentiment index fell to -18.7.

The economic calendar today will see investors shifting focus to the BoC’s monetary policy meeting. Chances of a rate hike remain high as the economists polled expect to see the BoC raising rates by 25 basis points at today’s meeting.

The BoC meeting will be concluded by the press conference. Later in the day, the Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney is also expected to speak. From the Federal Reserve, the FOMC member, Williams is due to speak as well.

On the economic front, the U.S. producer prices index data is expected to show a modest slowdown to 0.2% increase in both core and headline PPI for June.

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EURUSD intra-day analysis

EUR/USD 4H Chart
EUR/USD 4H Chart

EURUSD (1.1729): The EURUSD currency pair was seen posting modest declines on the day as price action remains consolidating around the 1.1730 level. The daily chart signals a hidden bearish divergence to the Stochastics which suggests a near-term decline. The initial support at 1.1686 remains the first level of support that could be tested. In the event of a break down below this level, then the EURUSD could be seen testing 1.1600 level to the downside.

USDJPY intra-day analysis

USD/JPY 4H Chart
USD/JPY 4H Chart

USDJPY (111.07): The USDJPY currency pair was seen giving up the gains as the currency pair slipped below the 111.13 level. However, price action has seen currently making up for the declines. However, a retest of 111.13 is likely to occur. Failure to break out above 111.13 could signal a move to the downside. The USDJPY currency pair could be seen settling into a range between 111.13 and 110.62 level. A breakout from this level could trigger a short-term trend in the direction of the breakout.

XAUUSD intra-day analysis

Gold 4H Chart
Gold 4H Chart

XAUUSD (1250.82): Gold prices continued to decline following the brief retest of the 1263 resistance. The decline back to the 1247 handle invalidated the bullish flag pattern as price action returns to the familiar support level. As long as 1247 support holds, gold prices could be seen holding on. However, in the event of a break down below, the next support level is seen in 1242. A reversal of this level is required for gold prices to maintain the range within the levels.

This article was written by Orbex

Major Bullish Flag on USD/JPY – Possible Trading Plan

The USDJPY is coiling for a significant break and the technical analysis points to higher levels. This article focuses on a potential bullish case for the pair and how should bulls position to take the most out of the upcoming trend.

A mandatory condition for a bullish flag is a vertical move before the flag’s formation. In this case, the vertical movement is the strong bullish reaction the pair had when President Trump got elected one and a half years ago.

Typically, the USDJPY is correlated directly to the United States equity. The direct correlation between the USDJPY and the DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) comes from the inversed relationship between risk appetite and the JPY.

When investors want to buy U.S. equities, they borrow in JPY as the interest rate is meager. With the JPY they buy the USD to pay for the stocks. Hence, the USDJPY moves higher together with U.S. stocks. Apparently, the opposite happens in a selloff.

Because most of the trading nowadays is automated, the transactions happen with the speed of light, and the reaction is almost simultaneously.

Therefore, the jump in the USDJPY as you can see below came when the DJIA and the general U.S. stock market exploded higher as a result of Trump’s election.

USD/JPY Daily Chart
USD/JPY Daily Chart

What Makes a Bullish Flag

Despite the upward move suggesting the poll of a flag is in place, the pair only drifted lower. The consolidation that followed, as it can be seen in the chart above, took over one and a half years to form.

And, all this time, the pair decoupled from the DJIA correlation. In fact, the U.S. equities moved much higher, while the USDJPY corrected. As such, we can say that when the correlation kicks in again, it’ll send the USDJPY higher, blowing some wind in the bullish scenario.

A bullish flag is a consolidation. It can form on the horizontal, but also drifting lower like is the case here.

Obviously, the bigger the timeframe, the more time it’ll form to break. What matters is to focus on the series of lower highs. And, on the potential continuation patterns

When the market will break the lower highs series, we can consider the flag to be broken. Effectively, for a valid break, bulls need something like this:

USD/JPY Daily Chart
USD/JPY Daily Chart

The current lower highs series is not broken yet. For it to be broken, the price must close and hold above the blue line visible in the chart above.

The signs are positive for bulls: a pennant as a continuation pattern forms for quite some time now (more than a trading month). For this reason, the chances are that the price just builds energy before breaking higher.

Conclusion

A move above 111.50 should trigger some stops. The next logical target is 116.24 and 120, providing the 110 level won’t be revisited anymore.

If the triangle that now looks like a pennant will break lower, expect the price to find support at a dynamic fifty percent retracement level of the descending channel.

This article was written by AMarkets

Technical Outlook For Important JPY Pairs: 20.06.2018

USD/JPY

With the 109.55-50 support-region activating USDJPY’s U-turn, the pair seems eager enough to confront the support-turned-resistance line of 110.35 for one more time. If comparative USD strength clears the 110.35 barrier, the 110.80-85 horizontal-region and the 111.40 resistances should be watched closely as break of which could open the door for the pair’s rally towards 111.80 and 61.8% FE level of 112.30. On the contrary, pair’s failure to surpass the 110.35 TL can portray Breakout-Pullback-Continuation (BPC) formation, which in-turn highlight the 109.80 and the 109.55-50 rest-points. Given the pair’s dip beneath the 109.50, the 109.10 & 108.70 might offer intermediate halts ahead of pushing sellers to target the 108.10-107.90 broad support-zone.

GBP/JPY

GBPJPY is struggling around 144.25-10 support-area but oversold RSI can trigger the pair’s pullback in direction to the 145.30 and the 146.00-146.10 resistance-zone. However, the 147.25 and the 148.00 are likely strong resistances that could confine the pair’s upside past-146.10, if not then the 148.90, the 149.15 and the 150.00 may appear in Bulls’ radars. Alternatively, pair’s decline below 144.10 may drag it to 143.15 and the 142.00 round-figure whereas the 141.50, comprising 61.8% FE, could try disappointing Bears afterwards.

CAD/JPY

Sustained break of ascending trend-line indicates the CADJPY’s further downside to 82.40 and the 81.65 but 81.40-30 might question the pair’s weakness then after. In case if the pair refrains to respect the 81.30 mark, the 81.00, the 80.25 and the 80.00 psychological-magnet can mark their presence on the chart. Assuming that the pair’s reverses from present levels, the 83.45-50 and the 83.85 are likely immediate hurdles it needs to surpass before aiming 84.25 and the 50-day SMA level of 84.90. Moreover, pair’s successful rise above 84.90 enables it to meet the 85.30 and the 86.00 resistance-levels.

CHF/JPY

Even after closing above 50-day SMA on Tuesday, CHFJPY again tries to offer a D1 close beneath the 110.55 SMA level, which in-turn could fetch the pair to 110.00 and the 109.45 trend-line support. Should the quote declines below 109.45, the 109.00, the 108.45 and the 107.85, including 61.8% FE, may attract traders’ attention. Meanwhile, the 111.10, the 111.50 and the 100-day SMA level of 111.90 may entertain the buyers prior to challenging them with 112.10-20 resistance-area. If at all prices rally beyond 112.20, the 112.70, the 113.00 and the 113.60 may come in limelight.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Important CAD Pairs’ Technical Overview: 16.05.2018

USD/CAD

Notwithstanding the USDCAD’s latest pullback, the pair has multiple supports on the downside that together indicate buyers’ strong favor for the Loonie. If we talk about the south, the pair has 1.2805-1.2800 as immediate support, breaking which an upward slanting TL, at 1.2760, and the 1.2730-25 could try disappointment Bears. In case the pair drops beneath the 1.2725, chances of witnessing 1.2670 and the 1.2620 as quotes can’t be denied. Looking at the upside, the descending trend-line, at 1.2910, can offer nearby resistance to the pair, breaking which 1.2940 and the 1.3000 may mark their presence on the chart. Should prices continue trading above the 1.3000 round-figure, the 1.3045 and the 1.3075 can please the Bulls.

CAD/JPY

With the CADJPY’s gradual rise above 100-day SMA, the pair is likely to confront 86.00 round-figure for one more time, which if conquered could escalate its recovery to 86.55 and then to the 200-day SMA level of 87.10. However, pair’s additional increase past 87.10 can be confined by the resistance-line of ascending trend-channel, at 87.85, surpassing which 88.20 & 88.50 may become optimists’ favorites. Alternatively, a daily close below 100-day SMA level of 85.45 can have 85.25 as adjacent support, breaking which 84.90 and the 84.40, including channel-support, seem important to watch. Given the pair’s dip below 84.40, the 83.50 and the 82.80 may grab the highlights.

AUD/CAD

AUDCAD’s bounce off the 0.9605 – 0.9600 support-zone again struggles to clear the month-old descending TL, at 0.9640 now, which in-turn signals the pair’s U-turn towards horizontal-support re-test. If the pair drops beneath the 0.9600 mark, the 0.9575 and the 0.9550 can entertain the sellers whereas 61.8% FE level of 0.9510 may appear live in their radars afterwards. Meanwhile, successful break of 0.9640 could quickly fuel the pair to 0.9660 and then to the 0.9700 resistances but the 0.9710 & the 0.9735 might require traders’ attention if holding hold beyond 0.9700. Assuming the pair’s sustained trading above 0.9735, the 0.9745, the 0.9770 and the 0.9800 seem crucial to observe.

CAD/CHF

Having failed to clear eight-month long descending trend-line, the CADCHF is likely reversing from immediate ascending TL, at 0.7760, that favors the pair’s recovery to 0.7810 and to the 0.7830 ahead of confronting the resistance-line, near 0.7865, again. Should the pair surpasses the 0.7865 on a daily closing basis, the 0.7910, the 0.7930 and the 0.7960 can act as consecutive resistances. On the downside, a D1 close below the 0.7760 can print 0.7730 & 0.7700 as quotes, breaking which 200-day SMA level of 0.7655 may come forward as strong support. Given the pair’s refrain to respect the 0.7655 mark, the 0.7615-05 support-area could limit its following declines, breaking which 0.7565 might be welcomed.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Technical Outlook of Important CAD Pairs: 25.04.2018

USD/CAD

USDCAD’s break of 1.2805-15 horizontal-area presently struggles with the 1.2860 resistance-line in order to justify its strength in targeting the 1.2900 and the 1.2945-50 upside barriers. Though, break of 1.2950 could quickly propel the quote towards 1.3000 and the 1.3050 resistances. Should prices fail to clear the 1.2860 mark, the 1.2830 can act as immediate support before highlighting the 1.2815-05 region for one more time. Given the pair’s drop beneath the 1.2805, also smashing the 1.2800 round-figure, the 1.2770 and the 1.2745 can reappear on the chart. Moreover, pair’s additional declines below 1.2745 can entertain the sellers with the 1.2670 and the 1.2620 ahead of pleasing them by showing 1.2580 number.

EUR/CAD

Even if the EURCAD manages to surpass immediate trend-line resistance of 1.5705, the 1.5750-55 zone could limit the pair’s following advances, if not then its present recovery can aim for the 1.5800, the 1.5830 and the 1.5865 consecutive resistances. On the downside, the 1.5675, the 1.5640 and the 1.5600-1.5595 might be considered as adjacent supports for the pair during its U-turn. In case the pair refrains to respect the 1.5595 rest-point, the 1.5540 and the 1.5500 may become buffers prior to shifting traders’ attention to early-month low around 1.5460.

GBP/CAD

Alike EURCAD, the GBPCAD seems also finding it hard to stretch latest up-moves as month-old descending TL, at 1.7955, holds the gate for the pair’s rise in direction to the 1.8000 and the 1.8050 resistances. Assuming the pair’s ability to conquer 1.8050, the 1.8110, the 1.8135 and the 1.8170 can be buyers’ favorites. Meanwhile, the 1.7900 and the 1.7840 could offer rest to the pair on its reversal but 1.7820-15 might confine extended south-run. Though, break of 1.7815 may not hesitate reprinting the 1.7775, the 1.7730 and the 61.8% FE level of 1.7700 on pessimists’ minds.

CAD/JPY

With more than a week-long downward slanting trend-line restricting the CADJPY’s nearby upside around 84.95, the pair may revisit 84.55 before availing the 84.30-25 support. Should the pair declines below 84.25, an ascending TL, at 83.30, becomes important to watch, which if broken could drag the prices to 82.80 and the 82.50 supports. Alternatively, break of 84.95 can again fuel the quote to 85.20 and the 85.45 while recent high of 85.75 and the 86.30, comprising 61.8% FE, seem crucial then after.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Technical Checks For USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, NZD/JPY & CAD/JPY: 19.04.2018

USD/JPY

Given the USDJPY’s sustained trading above fortnight-old ascending trend-line, the pair is likely to challenge the 107.85-90 horizontal-resistance, which if broken could escalate its recovery towards 108.45 and the 108.90 north-side numbers. If prices keep rising after 108.90, the 109.30 and the 109.80 can offer intermediate halts during its rally to 110.50. In case of the pullback, the 107.15 may become nearby rest for the pair ahead of highlighting the 106.90 TL, breaking which 106.60 & 106.10 shouldn’t be missed if holding short positions. Moreover, the 105.60 and the 105.30-25 can entertain the Bears past-106.10.

GBP/JPY

GBPJPY’s U-turn from 153.85-90 seems dragging it in direction to 151.70 and 151.15 while 151.85-75 region and the 150.40 ascending trend-line mark can limit the pair’s further downside. However, pair’s break of 150.40 can push the 150.00 psychological number to activate the profit-booking, failing to which could print the 149.30 and the 148.75 on chart. Alternatively, the 152.75 and the 153.30 might act as immediate resistances for the pair ahead of fueling to confront the 153.85-90 zone. Assuming that the pair manages to conquer 153.90, the 154.85 and the 155.50 may grab buyers’ attention.

NZD/JPY

Failure to clear the 200-day SMA again fetched the NZDJPY to 78.30-40 support-area that can trigger it’s up-moves, if not, then 78.00 and the 50-day SMA level of 77.70 could appear in the sellers’ radars to target. Should the pair posts a daily closing below 77.70, the 77.05, the 76.40 and the 76.00 can mark their presence as quotes. Meanwhile, 78.50, the 79.15 and the 200-day SMA level of 79.30 are likely consecutive resistances to restrict the pair’s near-term upside, breaking which 79.70 and the downward slanting TL, at 79.90, can become important for traders. If at all the pair surpasses the 79.90, also smashes the 80.00 round-figure, it’s rise to 81.00 and the 81.55 can’t be negated.

CAD/JPY

With the 85.30-45 horizontal-region aptly restricting the CADJPY’s advances, the pair expected to revisit the 84.55 and the 84.20 supports prior to aiming the 50-day SMA level of 83.45 during its additional declines. Though, an ascending trend-line, at 82.90, may confine the pair’s south-run beneath the 83.45, failing to which can make it vulnerable to plunge towards 82.40 & 81.60 rest-points. On the upside, a D1 close above 85.45 enables the pair to meet the 85.75 and the 100-day SMA level of 86.10, which if broken might propel its rise to 86.70 and then to the 87.30 resistances.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

3 Bullish Setups on Thursday. CADJPY, WTI Oil and Gold

Today just one currency pair and not even a major one, CADJPY. Here, we do have a beautiful uptrend initiated by the inverse head and shoulders pattern from the end of March. Most recently, the price broke the 38,2% Fibonacci and then, used that as a support to create another bullish bounce. That was expected by us in the daily analytical report from yesterday. As long as we stay above the orange area, sentiment remains positive.

Next one is the WTI, which also behaved in an expected manner. The price of the Oil was in the ascending triangle pattern and yesterday we broke the upper line of this formation (horizontal resistance). We are still in a very healthy uptrend.

Another commodity in this report is Gold, where we also broke an important resistance (blue line). The thing is, that on the XAUUSD, buyers could not hold the price above that level. This creates a chance for a false breakout pattern, which can be very negative for the buyers. Sentiment remains positive but does not see a clear buy signal here yet.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis

Three Nice Bullish Setups on the Market

Our picks from yesterday’s trading sniper video were spot on but let’s move forward and try to find another three good trading setups. First one is the EURUSD, which is having a third green session after creating a bullish engulfing pattern on the long-term up trendline. That was a great buying opportunity. The target is the 1.2530.

CADJPY created a beautiful reversal with an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern and thanks to that, already manager to retrace more than 38,2% of the recent drop. That Fibonacci line will be now a closest support. The sentiment is positive.

WTI bounced from the long-term up trendline and is aiming the horizontal resistance. What we are having here is an ascending triangle pattern, which in theory should result in a bullish breakout and a further rise in the price.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis

Risk Adverse Possibilities Rising for Yen

However, there are reasons to believe the Yen could get stronger because of risk adverse situations arising in the coming days.

Precarious Sentiment and Reasons to be Cautious

Forex proved relatively range bound the first three days of trading this week. Precarious sentiment in global equities, the intrigue surrounding international trade and lingering concerns about the direction of central banks have triggered plenty of reasons to be cautious.

USD/JPY 4H Chart
USD/JPY 4H Chart

The Yen has been a prime example of this consolidation. However, the Japanese currency which has been testing weaker realms short-term versus the U.S Dollar – has not significantly challenged resistance above 107.20 since early March, and support for the Yen appears to be around 105.50.

Tight Range Seen but a Breakout is Expected

The rather tight range produced early this week could produce a breakout to occur over these next two days, as investors prepare and react to Friday’s coming Average Cash Earnings from Japan and then Average Hourly Earnings from the States.

USD/JPY Daily Chart
USD/JPY Daily Chart

Any surprises via inflation data will spur on volatility, and there is solid chance equity on the Nikkei Index and Wall Street will generate more fireworks. Speculators may be tempted to look for the U.S Dollar to be sold against the Yen in the coming days on the belief risk adverse sentiment will rise in Asia.

In the short term, we believe the Yen could be positive. The mid-term and Long term we are unbiased.

Yaron Mazor is a senior analyst at SuperTraderTV.

SuperTraderTV Academy is a leader in investing and stock trading education. Sign up for a class today to learn proven strategies on how to trade smarter.

3 Beautiful H&S Patterns with Strong Trading Signals

Wednesday is a Head and Shoulders day in our analysis! Today we do have three great trading occasions for you based on this popular pattern.

First one is the USDCAD, where the price created a big Head and Shoulders pattern. I bet that many traders saw that and were expecting the bearish breakout. That is what happened yesterday. As for now, the price is making lower lows and highs which is a positive sign. Sell signal looks legitimate and sustainable.

Next one is the AUDJPY, where we do have an Inverse Head and Shoulders formation. The price broke the neckline yesterday along with the horizontal resistance on the 81.9. The price is aiming higher and making higher highs and lows. Currently, we are testing the 81.9 as a support. Once the buyers will succeed with the bounce, we will be ready for another bullish wave here.

CADJPY is the third one and here we do have a combination of a strong CAD (from the USDCAD) and the weaker JPY ( from the AUDJPY). The price broke the mid-term down trendline (red), the neckline (blue) and the horizontal resistance (green) on the 82.8. The sentiment is definitely positive.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis

Technical Overview of USD/JPY, CAD/JPY & NZD/JPY: 29.03.2018

USD/JPY

USDJPY’s recent pullback from resistance-turned-support indicate brighter chances for the pair’s extended recovery towards the 107.00 and then to the 107.30 immediate resistances; however, its following advances have to conquer the 107.85-90 horizontal-line in order to aim for the 108.40 and the 108.80 north-side numbers. Alternatively, pair’s dip below 106.40 support-line may drag it to 106.00 before highlighting the 105.80 ascending TL. Should prices continue declining after 105.80, the 105.30, the 105.10 and the 104.60 are likely consecutive rests that can be availed while being short.

CAD/JPY

Even if short-term ascending trend-channel favors the CADJPY’s gradual upside, resistance-line of the channel, at 82.90 now, could trigger the pair’s U-turn towards 82.30 and to the 82.00. If the quote stretches its correction beneath the 82.00, the 81.60 and the 81.25, comprising channel-support, gain sellers’ attention whereas break of 81.25 may fetch the pair to 80.80 and 80.50 supports. Meanwhile, pair’s successful trading beyond 82.90 can activate its rise to 83.50 ahead of confronting the 83.75-80 horizontal-line. Given the pair’s ability to surpass the 83.80 mark, the 84.45, the 84.80 and the 85.25 can please the buyers.

NZD/JPY

Notwithstanding the NZDJPY’s reversal from 77.05-10 nearby resistance-region, the pair is still trading above immediate TL support, at 76.55, which in-turn backs its another attempt to challenge the 77.05-10 area. If the pair manages to break 77.10, the 77.55 and the 78.00, encompassing two downward slanting trend-lines, seem crucial to watch, which if broken could escalate its north-run to the 78.30, the 78.60 and the 79.00 resistances. On the downside, break of 76.55 may reprint 76.40 and the 76.00 on the chart while its further drop below 76.00 can have 75.70, the 75.50 and the 61.8% FE level of 75.25 as supports.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Technical Outlook of USD/CAD, EUR/CAD, CAD/JPY & CAD/CHF: 15.03.2018

USD/CAD

With its another bounce towards the 1.3000–1.3010 horizontal-region, the USDCAD seem capable enough to surpass the same during this time and may even rise to 61.8% FE level of 1.3040. However, overbought RSI is likely a problem that might confine the pair’s rally beyond 1.3040, which if ignored could please the Bulls with 1.3100 and the 1.3160 resistances. In case if the pair again fails to clear the 1.3010, the 1.2920 and an upward slanting trend-line, at 1.2865, can entertain counter-trend traders. Should prices drop beneath the 1.2865, another ascending TL figure of 1.2800 and the 1.2755-60 horizontal-area might gain market attention.

EUR/CAD

Alike USDCAD, the EURCAD is also near to short-term important resistance-line, it’s a week-long descending TL figure of 1.6050 in this case, breaking which the pair can rally to the 1.6120 and then to the 61.8% FE level of 1.6215. Moreover, pair’s successful trading above 1.6215 could help it aim for 1.6300 and the 1.6320 resistances. On the downside, the 1.5980, the 1.5915 and the 1.5860 could act as immediate rests for the pair to avail before highlighting the 1.5835 trend-line support. Given the pair extended downturn below 1.5835, the 1.5750-45 could try challenging the sellers before pleasing them with 1.5685 number.

CAD/JPY

Following its inability to sustain the TL break during last-week, the CADJPY again aims to visit the 81.35 support but has to clear the 81.65 barrier. If Bears keep dominating the momentum after 81.35, the 61.8% FE level of 80.75 and the 80.00 round-figure could appear in their radars to target. Meanwhile, 82.00 and the 82.30 may restrict the pair’s nearby upside, breaking which 82.90 & 83.45 can test its strength. Additionally, 83.85 and the 84.50 can become the buyers’ favorite if they conquer the 83.45 mark.

CAD/CHF

Considering the immediate ascending trend-line support and the RSI recovery, CADCHF is likely recovering towards 0.7320, breaking which the 0.7345, the 0.7370 and the 0.7400 may offer consecutive resistances to the pair ahead of pushing it to the 0.7425 horizontal-line. In case if the pair rallies beyond 0.7425, 0.7470 & 0.7500 may play their roles. Alternatively, break of the 0.7275 trend-line support can fetch the quote to 0.7245 and then to the 0.7220 while its following downside can be limited by 61.8% FE level of 0.7175. During the pair’s further declines below 0.7175, the 2017 low of 0.7120 and the 0.7100 round-figure seem important to observe.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Short Term Weakness for the Yen Possible?

However, we expect the short term to be complicated by the Japanese currency and some weakness to develop.

Yen Testing Important Mid-Term Support Levels

The Yen is trading near the 106.10 level this morning. The Japanese currency has battled its way to stronger values versus the U.S Dollar. A glance at a mid-term chart shows what looks like a comfortable trading range for the Yen.

USD/JPY 4H Chart
USD/JPY 4H Chart

But do not be fooled. The Japanese currency is testing important support levels as the U.S Dollar has been sold against the Yen. Some investors seem to be wagering the Bank of Japan will become more hawkish. However, there have been few signs of that occurring anytime soon.


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Complicated Trading Ahead for Yen

Support for the Yen strength appears to be around 105.30, while resistance could be interpreted at 107.00 juncture. A look at a long-term chart of the Yen shows it has not been this strong since the summer and fall of 2016.

USD/JPY Weekly Chart
USD/JPY Weekly Chart

The Yen may continue to attract investors who sell the U.S Dollar versus the Japanese currency with a long-term view. However, we expect the near term to be more complicated, and would not be surprised to see some Yen weakness develop.

In the short term, we believe the Yen may be negative. The mid-term and Long term we are unbiased.

Yaron Mazor is a senior analyst at SuperTraderTV.

SuperTraderTV Academy is a leader in investing and stock trading education. Sign up for a class today to learn proven strategies on how to trade smarter.

Technical Checks For USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, AUD/CAD & NZD/CAD: 01.03.2018

USD/CAD

Having successfully breached 200-day SMA, the USDCAD seems all set to challenge the 1.2910-20 horizontal-region, with 1.2880 likely offering immediate resistance to the pair; though, its further upside needs to confront overbought RSI levels in order to meet the 1.3000 round-figure, followed by 1.3010-15 resistance-area. Given the pair’s extended north-run beyond 1.3015, the 1.3040 and the 1.3200 could please the Bulls. In case if the quote witnesses a pullback from present levels, the 1.2800, the 1.2780 and the 1.2755 may entertain counter-trend traders, breaking which 200-day SMA level of 1.2700 again comes into play. Should prices drop below the 1.2700 mark on a daily closing basis, the 1.2635-30 support-confluence, comprising 100-day SMA and a month-long ascending trend-line, becomes important to watch.

CAD/JPY

Ever since the CADJPY broke fifteen month old ascending trend-line support, it kept trading southwards and is presently at the lowest levels since mid-2017 that signals 82.80 and the 82.50 as nearby supports. If the pair continued declining after 82.50, the 82.00, the 81.60 and the 81.20 are expected consecutive rests that it can avail prior to testing the 80.65-55 horizontal-line. Assuming oversold RSI plays its role and triggers the pair’s U-turn, the 83.75-85 and the 84.55 may act as immediate resistances for the pair to clear ahead of pushing buyers to target the 85.45-50 zone. Moreover, pair’s additional rise above 85.50 enables the optimists to aim for the 85.80, the 86.50 and the 86.70 resistance-levels.

AUD/CAD

Considering the AUDCAD’s recent reversal from nearly six-month long descending TL resistance, the pair likely dipping to 0.9900 support-level but its further downside can be confined by 0.9875-70 support-area, including 200-day SMA & an upward slanting trend-line. Should prices refrain to respect the 0.9870 mark, the 0.9855 and the 100-day SMA level of 0.9820 could gain market-attention. Meanwhile, 0.9975 may become adjacent cap for the pair before it can again confront the previously-mentioned TL figure of 0.9995. If the pair manage to surpass 0.9995, also clear the 1.0000 level above D1 close, the 1.0040 and the 1.0075 might be looked upon if holding a long position.

NZD/CAD

While NZDCAD’s trading above 0.9260 can help it claim the 0.9275 and the 0.9285-90 resistances, the pair may find it difficult to stretch its recovery beyond the 0.9305 horizontal-line. Let’s say the quote conquers the 0.9305 barrier, the 0.9325 and the 0.9350 can act as intermediate halts during its north-run towards 61.8% FE level of 0.9400. Alternatively, the 0.9260, the 0.9230 and the 0.9200–0.9195 horizontal-line might prove themselves as immediate supports, breaking which 0.9145 can acquire sellers’ eye-share. Furthermore, the 0.9100 and the 0.9075 can reappear on the chart if 0.9145 fails to hold the pair captive.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal