Important JPY Pairs’ Technical Outlook: 30.08.2017

USD/JPY

Even if 108.26 offered much required upside trigger to the USDJPY on Tuesday, the pair presently struggles to clear a month-old descending trend-line resistance, at 110.10, which indicate its pullback to 109.40 and the 109.00 nearby supports. During the pair’s follow-on declines after 109.00, the 108.65 and the 108.25 may act as intermediate halts before dragging it towards 61.8% FE level of 107.90. In case if the quote manages to surpass 110.10 TL, it can quickly rise to 110.90 and the 111.50 resistances while 112.30 could restrict its further recovery. Moreover, pair’s successful trading above 112.30 rejuvenates expectations for witnessing 112.80 & 113.50 on the screen.

EUR/JPY

eurjpy

Unlike USDJPY, the EURJPY recently cleared the 131.35 resistance and is aiming the 132.00 upward slanting TL that holds the door for its further advances in direction to 61.8% FE level of 133.10. Should prices keep rallying beyond 133.10, the 133.35-40 and the 134.50 might please Bulls. Alternatively, a daily closing below 131.35, also conquering the 131.00 mark, may fetch the pair to 130.00 and then to the 129.50 rest-points; however, 50-day SMA level of 129.20, adjacent to an ascending trend-line support of 128.30, may try confronting the Bear power. Given the sellers’ dominance flash a sub-128.30 figure on the chart, it seems wise to expect 127.45-55 region’s comeback.

CAD/JPY

cadjpy

CADJPY is another JPY pair which is trading close to its near-term resistance. The pair currently aims to challenge the 88.15-25 horizontal-line, break of which can help it visit the 89.00 and then the July high, around 89.70. If at all buyers continue preferring the pair after 89.70, the 90.00 psychological-mark and the 61.8% FE level of 91.10 are likely north-side numbers to entertain them. Meanwhile, 87.30 and the 86.80 may be considered as immediate supports for the pair but an upward slanting TL, at 86.55, can restrict the pair’s decline afterwards. In case of the pair’s additional downside below 86.55, the 86.00 could play its role of a barrier ahead of reigniting the importance of 85.45-30 region.

CHF/JPY

chfjpy

Although CHFJPY trades at the highest level in a month, the 115.35-50 resistance-zone, including 50-day SMA, may confine the pair’s additional upside and can trigger its pullback towards 114.50 and the 100-day SMA level of 114.15. In case of the pair’s following declines below 114.15, the 113.50 and the ascending TL figure 112.85 should be given proper attention. On the upside, a daily close beyond 115.50 can extend the pair’s advances to 116.00 and the 116.40 resistances while 117.00 and the 117.80 seem crucial then after. If at all the optimists keep respecting the pair’s north-run above 117.80, the July month high of 118.60 and the 120.00 round-figure might play their roles.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Technical Checks For USD/JPY, USD/CAD & CAD/JPY: 24.08.2017

USD/JPY

Although six-month old descending trend-line continue signaling USDJPY’s downside, the 108.50-40 horizontal-line seems confining the pair’s near-term downside and indicates brighter chances of its pullback to 109.80 before extending the recovery towards 110.20 TL resistance. Given the pair’s ability to surpass 110.20 on a daily closing basis, it becomes capable enough to aim for 111.00 round-figure but 100-day SMA level, near 111.15-20, may restrict its following advances. On the contrary, quote’s daily close below 108.40 may further strengthen the Bears in demanding 107.50 and the 106.95 supports. Incase if sellers continue dominating prices after 106.95, the 106.00 and the 105.50 are likely halts that can entertain traders.

USD/CAD

usdcad

Contrast to USDJPY, the USDCAD has more room towards south before it can test the short-term descending trend-channel support, at 1.2480, breaking which can deflate the pair to revisit 1.2450 and the July-month low near 1.2410. Should sellers continue maintaining their pessimistic outlook for the pair and drags it below 1.2410, also clear 1.2400 mark, the 1.2300 can offer an intermediate stop during the southward trajectory in direction to 61.8% FE level of 1.2230. Meanwhile, the 1.2610 and the 1.2645, comprising channel-resistance, may limit the pair’s immediate upside, which if broken enables it to stretch the recovery to 1.2690. However, the 1.2760-80 region, comprising 50-day SMA becomes a tough resistance-zone for prices to cross which can open the door for their north-run to 1.2850-55.

CAD/JPY

cadjpy

With the CAD being comparatively stronger than JPY, the CADJPY currently heads to confront 87.30-40 horizontal-line, break of which could enable the pair’s rise to channel-resistances figure of 88.00. During the pair’s sustained trading above 88.00, the 88.30 and the 88.60-65 could offer small barriers ahead of pushing Bulls to expect 89.00 resistance-mark. Alternatively, the 86.90 and the 86.50-45, including channel-support, can be guessed as stops if the pair reverses from present levels. Though, break of 86.45 can magnify the pair’s weakness by fetching it to the 86.00 and the 85.30 supports.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

USD/CAD Flat Top Ascending Triangle Uptrend

The USD/CAD has been in a steady uptrend. The price has formed an ascending flat top triangle that suggest an uptrend continuation. But the price has already reached the W H4 camarilla pivot so bulls need to be careful. If the pair breaks 1.2760 then 1.2805 will be possible. If there is no breakout to the upside then a retracement towards the POC 1.2700-15 (50.0, D L3, ascending triangle trend line, EMA89) will be possible. New buyers might appear within the POC zone and spike the price up towards the 1.2760 and above mentioned targets. However, bulls should pay attention to 1.2700 break to the downside. If that happens, the pair might experience a temporary weakness leading to 1.2656-45 zone.

USD/CAD 1H Chart
USD/CAD 1H Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets

CAD/JPY Has Potential to Rally from Inverse Head-and-Shoulders

After hitting its multi-year low against the Japanese yen back in November of 2016, the Canadian dollar has done a great deal of recovering even though the first half of 2017 was a pure downtrend for the loonie. The current upward wave is completing the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on a weekly timeframe.

CAD/JPY Weekly Chart
CAD/JPY Weekly Chart

Above, you can see the pattern marked with the yellow lines. Although, the neckline seems to be broken, the currency rate has not yet reached my entry level, which is positioned with a 10% buffer distance. The green line will serve as my take-profit level — I have placed it at 100% of the pattern’s height above the neckline. The low of the breakout candle will serve as my stop-loss. If the breakout candle trades mostly above the neckline, use the low of the previous candle (or the first one that qualifies). I will ignore bearish breakouts from this formation as an inverted head-and-shoulder is a reversal pattern, which should trigger an uptrend after a long decline.

This post was originally published by EarnForex

Technical Overview For USDCAD, EURCAD, GBPCAD & CADJPY: 20.07.2017

USD/CAD

Irrespective of the USDCAD’s latest bounce from 1.2575, a week-long descending trend-line presently confines the pair’s recovery around 1.2635. Considering the USD weakness, chances of the 1.2600 and the 1.2575 come-back are high, breaking which 61.8% FE level of 1.2555 and the 1.2500 mark might give rise to expectations of a short-covering. Should Bears refrain to respect 1.2500, the 1.2485 and the 1.2460, which signifies 2016 low, could gain attention. On the contrary, break of 1.2635 TL can extend recent pullback moves to the 1.2680, the 1.2700 and then to the 1.2725 consecutive resistances. In case of the pair’s sustained trading above 1.2725, it becomes capable enough to challenge the 1.2770 resistance-mark, which if broken can help buyers to target 1.2800 round-figure.

EUR/CAD

eurcad

Unlike USDCAD, the EURCAD has been struggling with a five-month old ascending trend-line support of 1.4500, breaking which 200-day SMA level of 1.4430 might try to limit the quote’s additional downturn. Given the sellers’ dominance drag prices below 1.4430 on a daily closing basis, the 1.4350 and the 1.4230 supports should be wise to expect while being short. In case if the upward slanting TL triggers the pair’s U-turn, the 1.4600 and the 100-day SMA level of 1.4680, adjacent to descending trend-line figure of 1.4720, seem important resistances to watch. If at all the pair’s recovery stretches beyond 1.4720, the 1.4830 and the 1.4900 are likely following north-side numbers to appear on the chart.

GBP/CAD

gbpcad

With the six-week old descending trend-line successfully restricting the GBPCAD’s up-moves, the pair is currently re-testing the 1.6350 lows before looking at the 1.6300 support. However, the 1.6230 support-confluence, comprising downward slanting TL and 61.8% FE, may confine the pair’s further downside, failing to which can drag it to 1.6200 and then to 1.6115-20 support-zone. Meanwhile, 1.6450 can offer immediate resistance to the pair, breaking which aforementioned TL, at 1.6550, could play its role. Should buyers propel prices beyond 1.6550, the 1.6690 and the 1.6720 seem important levels to observe.

CAD/JPY

cadjpy

While an immediate ascending trend-line favors the CADJPY’s up-moves, the week-long descending TL, at 89.15, becomes crucial for buyers to wait for before expecting the 89.30 reprint. Should the pair manage to please Bulls with 89.30 clearance, it can rise to 61.8% FE level of 89.80 and then to the 90.00 round-figure. Alternatively, the 88.75 TL support and 88.45 are expected nearby rests for the pair, breaking which 88.25-20 horizontal-region seem crucial support. Given the pair’s break of 88.20, it can gradually come down to 88.00, 87.75 and the 87.40 consecutive supports.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

 

Technical Checks For USD/CAD, GBP/CAD & CAD/JPY: 07.07.2017

USD/CAD

Although 1.2910 triggered the USDCAD’s U-turn during early weekdays, the pair failed to surpass 1.3010-15 horizontal-line and is presently struggling between the same 1.2910 – 1.3015 region ahead of the monthly labor markets numbers from US & Canada. Considering the upbeat expectations from US jobs report, coupled with declining Crude prices, chances of the pair’s upside are higher than the otherwise; however, 1.3010-15 and the fortnight long descending trend-line number of 1.3035 become crucial for traders to watch. Should Bulls’ dominance help the pair to surpass 1.3035 TL, the 1.3075 and the 1.3130 are likely following resistances to appear on the chart. Alternatively, a surprise disappointment from US details can drag the quote to 1.2950 and the 1.2925 supports prior to portraying the 1.2910 re-test. Given the pair’s additional decline after 1.2910 break, 61.8% FE level of 1.2865 and the 1.2820 can be aimed while being short.

GBP/CAD

gbpcad

With the recently released downbeat UK Manufacturing Production & Goods Trade Balance, the GBP registered noticeable decline against majority of its counterparts. The same is the case with GBPCAD which is now aiming to test 1.6680 support; though, lower-line of a month-long descending trend-channel, at 1.6665, might restrict the pair’s further drops. If Pound Bears neglect to respect 1.6665 mark, 61.8% FE level of 1.6590 and the April low around 1.6510 can be expected as supports. Meanwhile, the 1.6870 and the 1.6920 are likely nearby resistances that may limit the pair’s recovery before the channel-resistance figure of 1.6945 comes into play. When there prevails an additional buying momentum after 1.6945, the 1.7000 psychological magnet, the 1.7080 and the 1.7165-70 horizontal-line should be flashed in buyers’ radar.

CAD/JPY

cadjpy

Considering the CADJPY’s repeatedly failed attempts to clear the 87.70-75 horizontal-line, together with overbought RSI, the pair’s U-turn towards 86.85 and then to the 86.10 becomes more expected but the 85.90-80 area might limit its further downside. In case if 85.80 fails to sustain the selling pressure, the 84.80 and the 84.30 should gain importance as following supports. On the contrary, pair’s break of 87.75 enables it to target the 88.00, the 88.50 and the 89.00 round-figure before looking at the 90.00 resistance-mark. During the pair’s extended up-moves beyond 90.00, the 90.55 and the 91.50 are likely landmarks to observe.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Technical Checks For USD/CAD, EUR/CAD, NZD/CAD & CAD/CHF: 29.06.2017

USD/CAD

Having cleared a year-long upward slanting trend-line, the USDCAD is now struggling with 1.3000 – 1.2995 horizontal-support in order to stretch its south-run towards the 1.2960 and the 1.2900 rest-points. In case of the pair’s additional weakness below 1.2900, the 1.2830 and the 1.2760 might offer intermediate halts prior to flashing 1.2650-55 on the chart. However, oversold RSI and presence of strong support-region indicates brighter chances of the pair’s pullback to 1.3060, 1.3125 and the 1.3150 consecutive resistances. Given the quote’s extended recovery beyond 1.3150, the 1.3200, the 1.3280 and the 200-day SMA level of 1.3340 can entertain follow-on Buyers ahead of pushing them to conquer with 1.3385 resistance-line.

EUR/CAD

eurcad

EURCAD’s failure to extend its recovery beyond 1.4980 signals it’s another drop in direction to 1.4730-25 horizontal-line with 1.4800 and the 1.4755 being nearby supports to avail. Should the pair refrains from respecting the 1.4730-25 region, it can quickly plunge to 1.4660 and the 1.4600 round-figure ahead of meeting 1.4530 and the 1.4490 supports. Alternatively, 1.4900 and the 1.4980 are expected immediate resistances that the pair needs to surpass before aiming the 1.5000 – 1.5010 horizontal-resistance, which if broken could help stretch the advances towards 1.5125 and the 1.5210. If at all Bulls dominate prices after 1.5210 break, the 1.5260 is likely a buffer that can be availed during their rally to 61.8% FE level of 1.5480.

NZD/CAD

nzdcad

NZDCAD recently broke 0.9510-15 support-confluence, comprising 50-day SMA & celeven-week old ascending trend-line, which in-turn favors the pair’s decline to 0.9470 and then to the 100-day SMA level of 0.9445. If Bears aren’t satisfied with 0.9445 break, they can further fetch the quote to 0.9400, 0.9380 and then the 0.9350 support-levels. Meanwhile, a daily closing 0.9515 could negate the latest breakdown and might rejuvenate the pair’s pullback to 0.9550, 0.9590 and the 0.9620 resistances. Moreover, pair’s successful trading above 0.9620, raises hopes to witness 0.9660, 0.9690 and the 0.9710 numbers on the chart.

CAD/CHF

cadchf

Following its successful bounce from 50-day SMA, the CADCHF now confronts more than four-month old descending trend-line, at 0.7360, which if broken on a daily closing basis, can help buyers target 100-day SMA level of 0.7400. During the pair’s further advances beyond 0.7400, the 0.7430 and the 0.7465 can mark their presence while 0.7500 & 0.7530 become eagerly awaited. On the downside, 0.7360 and the 0.7345 can offer adjacent supports to the pair, breaking which 0.7300 and the 50-day SMA level of 0.7265 comes into play. Given the Bears dominance after 0.7265, the 0.7190 and the 0.7120 can be alive in their radar.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

USDCAD Should Give us a Nice Signal Soon

Sellers on the USDCAD had a great chance to start a new strong downswing. Unfortunately for those that were expecting that, they failed to break the long-term up trendline and most probably, now they will have to pay the price for that.

Long-term sentiment here is negative. It was created in the first half of the 2016, when the price fell sharply over 2200 pips. After that, we got a year long recovery, which technically in the short-term can be called ‘channel up’ (bullish) and in the longer-term ‘flag’ (bearish). The difference between them focuses on the lower line of this formation. If we would see a bearish breakout that would mean flag. If we would see a bounce, that would mean a channel up. So what price action trader has to do is to wait. Wait for the price action to show us the direction. Yesterday, the price created the small pennant (green) above the support. In theory that indicates a willingness for a breakout but we can see that this is not happening. As long as we stay below the 38,2% Fibonacci it is still to early to claim the successful defence and a bullish victory. The possibility of a breakout is still high.

USDCAD Daily Chart
USDCAD Daily Chart

How to trade it? Best way in my opinion is to wait for the confirmation. Price breaking the lower red line will be a negative signal. Price breaking the 38,2% Fibonacci should be perceived as a positive one. That should be a good trading setup and all we need now is to wait and let the price choose the side.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis

USD/CAD Broke below Channel Support

USDCAD broke below the bottom trend line at 1.3435 of the price channel on its daily chart, suggesting that the uptrend started from the January 31 low of 1.2968 had completed at the May 5 high of 1.3793 already.

On the Downside

The USDCAD pair is expected to find its first support at the bottom trend line from the May 2016 low of 1.2460 to the January 31 low of 1.2968 of the price channel on its weekly chart, now at around 1.3200, a clear break below the channel support will take price to the next support level at 1.2968, below this level will confirm that the whole uptrend from 1.2460 had completed at 1.3793 already, this could trigger another long term bearish movement towards 1.1500.

usdcad2

On the Upside

As long as the price is in the bullish price channel on the weekly chart, the USDCAD pair remains in bullish structure. As long as the channel support holds, the fall from 1.3793 could possibly be correction of the uptrend from 1.2460 and one more rise towards 1.4000 is still possible after the correction. There is a key resistance located at 1.3550 on the daily chart, a break through this level could signal resumption of the uptrend.

Technical Levels

Support levels: 1.3223 (April 13 low), 1.3200 (the bottom trend line of the price channel on weekly chart), 1.2968 (January 31 low), 1.2460 (May 2016 low).

Resistance levels: 1.3550 (the key resistance on daily chart), 1.3793 (May 5 high).

This article is written by Franco Shao, a senior analyst at ForexCycle.

Important CAD Pairs’ Technical Overview: 31.05.2017

USD/CAD

With the three-week old descending trend-line, coupled with 50-day SMA, restricting the USDCAD’s near-term advances around 1.3495 – 1.3500, the pair becomes more likely to re-test four-month long upward slanting TL, near 1.3390, if Canadian GDP matches 0.3% forecast. Given the pair drops below 1.3390 on a daily closing basis, the 1.3350 and the 1.3330 may offer intermediate halts during its plunge towards 200-day SMA level of 1.3310. On the contrary, disappointing growth-figure and weak Crude prices might propel the pair to surpass 1.3500, which in-turn could open the door for 1.3570, the 1.3600 and the 1.3640 consecutive resistances to appear on the chart. Moreover, Bulls dominance after 1.3640 can help the buyers to aim for 1.3730 and the 1.3800 round-figure.

EUR/CAD

eurcad

Even after taking a U-turn from a week-long descending trend-line resistance, the EURCAD may bounce-off from 1.5015-10 horizontal-line and can again challenge the 1.5085 TL on weaker Canadian details. Should the pair clears 1.5085 mark, it becomes capable enough to claim 1.5130 and the 1.5160 resistances while its following advances may have to conquer 1.5200 round-figure in order to meet 1.5250 & 1.5280 numbers to north. In case if the 1.5015-10 support-zone fail to play its role, the 1.4980 and the 1.4965 can entertain short-term sellers prior to pleasing them with 61.8% FE level of 1.4950. During the pair’s additional downturn below 1.4950, chances of witnessing 1.4900 and the 1.4860 can’t be denied.

CAD/JPY

cadjpy

CADJPY’s defeat from 82.60 seems presently dragging it to 82.15-20 horizontal-line, breaking which the pair can meet 82.00 and then to 81.75 support-levels. Given the sustained trading below 81.75, the 81.30 and the 81.00 are likely buffers that can further direct the moves to month-low around 80.60. Meanwhile, a clear break of 82.60 enables the pair to flash 82.85 and the 83.00 resistances, clearing which 83.50 seems crucial to observe, which if broken could escalate the north-run towards 61.8% FE level near to 84.00.

AUD/CAD

audcad

While a fortnight old descending trend-line seems aptly restricting AUDCAD’s up-moves, the pair is expected to meet a bit longer downward slanting TL, around 0.9995. If the pair refrains from respecting 0.9995, the 0.9950, the 61.8% FE level of 0.9970 and the April low around 0.9920 could be availed as rest-points. Alternatively, break of the 1.0050 TL confirms short-term bullish formation and can propel the quote to 1.0080 and then to 1.0120. In the course of pair’s northwards trajectory beyond 1.0120, the 1.0160 and the 1.0200 are the resistances that could gain attention.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Important JPY Pairs’ Technical Outlook: 04.05.2017

USD/JPY

Although USDJPY’s recovery from 108.30-35 support-zone presently helps the pair to meet seven-week high, the 113.20-30 resistance-confluence, comprising 100-day SMA & upper-line of near-term descending trend-channel, seems a tough nut to crack as the RSI is also near the overbought levels. As a result, pair’s pullback to 112.30 and then to the 50-day SMA level of 111.70 becomes more likely before the 110.50 and the 110.00 could reappear on the chart. Should prices drop below 110.00, the 109.20 & the 108.35-30 again grabs attention, breaking which channel support-line at 107.80 might give rise to chances favoring pair’s U-turn. Alternatively, if the quote manages to close beyond 113.30, it can aim for 114.00 and the 114.40 nearby resistances while the 115.00 and the 115.55-60 could please Bulls during its run-up beyond 114.40.

AUD/JPY

audjpy

With the AUDJPY’s inability to drop below fortnight old ascending trend-channel, it seems wise to expect the pair’s pullback towards 84.00, 84.20 and the 84.55 consecutive nearby resistances. If price-recovery gets stretched beyond 84.55, the 84.90 and the channel’s upper-line, at 85.35-40, may trigger its U-turn, failing to which can help buyers to target 85.80 & the 86.20 upside numbers. Given the pair’s favor to sellers, with a dip below 83.30, the 82.90 & 82.40 should be observed closely, breaking which 81.80 and April lows around 81.50 can offer intermediate halt during the pair’s southward trajectory to 61.8% FE level of 80.80.

CAD/JPY

cadjpy

Considering the CADJPY’s momentum during last fortnight, the pair seems portraying a short-term “Rising-Wedge” Bearish formation. However, present up-move could end-up flashing 82.50-55 on the chart before the pattern resistance, near 82.75-80, tries to limit its following advances. If prices fail to respect 82.80, chances of witnessing a rally to 83.00 and then 83.30 can’t be denied, which if broken may give rise to 83.70 and the 84.20 north-side numbers. On the downside, 82.00 and the formation support of 81.65 are likely important rests that should be watched, breaking which the bearish pattern gets confirmed and can fetch the quote to 81.20. Should Bears dominate momentum after 81.20 break, 80.55 and the 61.8% FE level of 80.10, closely followed by 80.00 psychological magent, should come into the sellers’ radar.

NZD/JPY

nzdjpy

Even after breaking a two-month old descending trend-line resistance, the NZDJPY currently witnesses a pullback towards resistance-turned-support around 77.10; though, the pair is expected to bounce-off the same, if not, then 76.75 and the 76.30 can again be witnessed. Given the pair’s inability to stop its downside below 76.30, the 76.00 and the April low around 75.60 may become following supports to watch. Meanwhile, 77.80 and the 78.00 can act as immediate resistances during the pair’s U-turn, breaking which 78.40 and the 78.80-85 horizontal-line seem crucial. In case if buyers propel prices beyond 78.85, 79.60 and the 80.00 can be their favorite numbers.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Important JPY Pairs’ Technical update: 22.03.2017

USD/JPY

With the present run for risk-safety providing noticeable strength to safe-havens, USDJPY dropped below 111.30-50 horizontal-region and a closing break beneath the same could flash brighter chances of its extended south-run towards 110.70 & 110.20. Given the pair keep trading down after conquering 110.20 support, the 109.40 & 108.60 might offer intermediate halts prior to dragging it towards 200-day SMA figure around 108.00. In case if the 111.30-50 area again play its role in triggering the pair’s U-turn, 111.85, 112.30 & 112.50 are likely nearby resistances to watch. However, the quote’s additional up-move beyond 112.50 might find it hard to surpass 100-day SMA figure of 113.30, which if cleared enables it to aim for 114.00 and 114.50 numbers to north.

EUR/JPY

eurjpy

Even if the JPY strength dragged EURJPY to test 120.00 support-confluence, oversold RSI on H4 and the pair’s repeated failures to break near-term important level indicates its pullback towards 120.30 & 120.50 immediate resistances. During the quote’s extended up-move above 120.50, the 120.70 and 121.20 are likely following resistances that should gain traders’ attention before the channel’s upper-line figure of 121.40 comes into lime-light. If at all price recovery clears 121.40, it becomes wise to expect 122.00 to appear on the chart. On the contrary, break of 120.00 – 119.90 can act as a trigger for the pair’s additional south-run to 119.50 & 119.00. However, 118.65 and 118.20 may offer strong supports after the pair plunges below 119.00.

GBP/JPY

gbpjpy

Alike previous two pairs, GBPJPY also trades at short-term important support-zone of 138.45-55 and signals pullback to 139.00. In case of the pair’s extended recovery beyond 139.00, the 139.60 and the 140.00 can entertain short-term buyers before offering them 140.55-60 resistance-area, which is expected to limit the pair’s following up-moves. Should Bulls dominate prices and clears 140.60, the 141.00, 141.20 & 141.80 might come forward. Meanwhile, pair’s break of 138.45 can fetch it to 137.80 and the 137.00 ahead of reigniting possibilities to witness January lows, around 136.40. Given the quote fails to respect 136.40, sellers can target 135.30 support-mark.

AUD/JPY

audjpy

Although break of four-month old ascending trend-line pushed AUDJPY to re-test early January lows, 100-day SMA, at 85.10, restricts the pair’s present downturn and might support it to reclaim 85.90 support-turned-resistance-line. While pair’s successful closing above 85.90 negate its latest breakdown, 50-day SMA figure of 86.40 and the 86.70 can confine its following advances ahead of 87.30, including descending trend-line mark, gains importance. Alternatively, 100-day SMA’s inability to confront bears could further drag the quote to 84.50 and the 83.75 support-levels. If sellers dominate prices after 83.75 break, the 83.20 and 82.60 can come in their radars.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Important CAD Pairs’ Technical Outlook: 16.03.2017

USD/CAD

Although FOMC’s disappointment and negative US crude inventory figure dragged USDCAD towards testing a fortnight low, the pair failed to offer a daily closing below 100-day SMA level and is presently witnessing bounce from the same 1.3295 support. The 1.3350 might become immediate resistance for pair traders to watch at the moment, breaking which 1.3380 and 1.3430 should be given consideration before looking at 1.3500 and 1.3540 north-side numbers. However, 1.3585 – 1.3600 horizontal-region can become difficult for the quote to surpass during its up-move beyond 1.3540, which if broken enables it to aim for 61.8% FE level of 1.3670. Alternatively, pair’s daily closing below 1.3295 SMA mark could further extend its latest drop towards 1.3210 and then to 1.3170-65 support-confluence, comprising 200-day SMA & 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its May – December advances. Given the pair continue declining below 1.3165, the 1.3120 and 1.3060 can act as buffers before reigniting importance of nine-month old ascending TL and 50% Fibo area of 1.3030-25.

EUR/CAD

eurcad

Following its failure to provide a daily break above 1.4375-85 horizontal-line, the EURCAD has been declining towards revisiting 100-day SMA figure of 1.4165; though, 1.4200 may offer nearby support. If the pair manages to sustain its south-run below 1.4165, the 1.4100 and 1.4030 are likely following rests to grab bears attention before targeting sub-1.4000 area. On the upside, 1.4330 and the 200-day SMA figure of 1.4355 can keep restricting the pair’s near-term advances, breaking which 1.4375-85 again comes into play. Should prices close beyond 1.4385 on daily chart, more than a year-long descending trend-line, at 1.4440, becomes crucial, surpassing which could wake the pair Bulls looking for 1.4600 round figure.

AUD/CAD

audcad

Even if the AUDCAD couldn’t extend its up-move beyond early-month high during Wednesday, a near-term ascending trend-line continues favoring its north-run. Currently, the pair seems heading to confront 1.0250 resistance, which can open doors for its rise towards 1.0265 but another upward slanting trend-line, at 1.0320, might limit its following rally. Given the quote surpasses 1.0320, the 100% FE level of 1.0350 and the November 2016 high around 1.0400 should be watched carefully. Meanwhile, 1.0200 and the 1.0170 trend-line support gains high priority if the pair reverses from present levels. If the 1.0170 is broken 1.0120 and the 1.0100 can quickly be flashed on the chart.

CAD/JPY

cadjp

With the 84.80-75 horizontal-line repeatedly restricting the CADJPY’s downside, chances of its up-move towards challenging immediate descending TL resistance of 85.50 are higher. If the pair manages to clear 85.50, the 85.80 & 86.20 can become buyers’ favorite. Moreover, successful break of 86.20 may help Bulls to inflate the prices towards 86.60, 86.75 and the 87.00 consecutive resistances. Given the quote’s U-turn and a break below 84.75, it can quickly drop to 84.60, 84.15 and then to the 84.00 round figure. Should the pair keep trading southwards after breaking 84.00, 61.8% FE level of 83.55 and the 83.15 are likely rests that it could avail.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Important JPY Pairs’ Technical Overview: 09.03.2017

USD/JPY

Following its repeated failures to surpass seven-week old descending trend-line, at 114.40 now, the USDJPY finally managed to break the same on Thursday, indicating brighter chances of its advances to 115.00 and 115.60-70 nearby resistances. With the Friday’s NFP likely to post another set of good number, the pair might extend its up-move beyond 115.70 and the can aim for 116.30 and the 117.00 figures towards north. However, pair’s pullback below 114.40 can negate the importance of recent breakout by fetching it to 113.80 and 113.50 support-marks before reigniting concerns for 113.00 and the 112.55-60 test. Given the pair continue declining below 112.55, the 111.90 & 111.60 are likely buffers that it has to conquer prior to pleasing sellers with 61.8% FE level of 110.65.

EUR/JPY

eurjpy

EURJPY’s bounce from 118.40-50 horizontal-support triggered the pair’s rally which currently helps it confront the 50-day SMA figure of 121.20. Should the quote provide daily closing above 121.20, it becomes capable enough to aim for 121.60 & 122.20 while nearly three-month old descending trend-line, at 122.60, might restrict its following up-moves. In case of the pair’s successful break of 122.60, chances of witnessing 123.30 on the chart can’t be denied. Alternatively, pair’s closing below 121.20 can again drag it to 120.30 and the 120.00 nearby supports, breaking which 119.50 & 119.10 may entertain short-term sellers; though, 118.50-40 could limit the pair’s further south-run below 119.10. If at all the pair drops below 118.40, it becomes vulnerable to visit 117.55 and 116.35 support-numbers.

GBP/JPY

gbpjpy

Even if 138.35-40 horizontal-line triggered the GBPJPY’s U-turn during Wednesday, the pair can’t be termed strong unless breaking 50-day SMA figure of 141.30 with near-term descending trend-line, at 140.60, offering immediate resistance. If the pair provides a daily closing above 141.30, it can quickly rise to 142.80 & 143.50 before aiming the 144.40. Meanwhile, 139.00 seems to be adjacent support for the pair traders to watch, breaking which 138.40-35 again comes into play. Given the pair breaks 138.35, it can drop to 137.50 & 136.80 while 136.30 and 135.80 become important during its following downside below 136.80.

CAD/JPY

cadjpy

For CADJPY traders, 100-day SMA figure of 84.60 becomes an immediate concern and with the comparative weakness of CAD, the pair is more likely to decline towards 84.30 & 84.00 after clearing the SMA support. Though, lower-line of three-month old descending trend-channel, at 83.90, might trigger the pair’s pullback moves, failing to which makes it weaker enough to test 83.20 & 82.80 supports. Alternatively, 85.00 and 85.30 are likely nearby resistances to be observed, surpassing which 85.60 & 86.00 may come back on the chart. During the pair’s additional advances beyond 86.00, 50-day SMA figure of 86.40 and the channel resistance of 87.50 gain lime-light.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Weekly Analysis – EUR/USD, AUD/NZD, AUD/CAD, USD/JPY

Previous Week Overview

UK GDP result was 2.0%, underestimated the forecast of 2.2%, and under the previous Year number 2.2%. On the other hand we have seen over expected Canadian inflation number of 2.1% which was much better than the previous year number (1.5%). The number left significant effect on the Canadian dollar by Friday. Moreover, traders short dollar before other currencies after they doubted a next month interest rate hike according to the interpretation of the released FOMC minutes.

It is important to highlight the previous week forecast. EUR/USD as forecasted in our previous analysis, traded in narrow range (1.0620-1.0500). AUD/NZD raised at the opening of the week reached 1.0770, then dropped closing 20 pips lower at 1.0657. Yen pairs moved in a tide range. Finally, we forecast the CAC40 to soar at 4932, it soared to 4953.

Next Week Outlook

Next is the GDP week. We are expecting the USA, Switzerland, and Canada. I am not going to be exaggerating if I will say that markets are going crazy. We can see S&P 500 soaring without corrections, currencies are not compatible with technical indicators. Markets are fundamental justification, Trump tax plan and the elections in Europe are all influence markets price action.

AUD/CAD

The pair is showing good divergence, where we should expect the first target at 23.6 level (1.0015), then 38.2 level at (0.9930).

AUD/CAD Daily Chart
AUD/CAD Daily Chart

EUR/USD

Situation on the EUR/USD did not change as it is waiting for motivation. It is expected to continue to move in the same range between 1.0830-1.0520.

EUR/USD Range
EUR/USD Range

AUD/NZD

I anticipated this pair to drop during the previous week and I have a stronger believe in the upcoming week that it will continue to drop. Previous week chart formed a hummer; in addition to that you find the symmetric stochastic touched the top of the triangle as shown in the chart. I believe that pair is dropping to the 23.6 level at (1.0624) then 38.2 level at (1.0550).

AUD/NZD Chart
AUD/NZD Chart

Yen Pairs

As we mentioned in the previous month, it is still moving in range movements. We can also use this as good hedging opportunities. USD/JPY between (111.00 – 115.40) CAD/JPY (82.00 – 88.80) CHF/JPY (109.90 – 115.00) NZD/JPY(84.14 – 80.42).

CAD/JPY Daily Chart
CAD/JPY Daily Chart

Good Luck

Technical Overview For EUR/JPY, NZD/JPY & CAD/JPY

EUR/JPY

Having failed to justify its bounce from 118.40-60 horizontal-support-line, the EURJPY again aims to revisit the same support-zone, breaking which 200-day SMA level of 117.70 and 117.20 can quickly be flashed on the chart. However, pair’s further downside below 117.20 can be confined by 116.70-65 support-confluence, comprising upward slanting trend-line and 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its June-December advances. In case if the quote drops further below 116.65 on a daily closing basis, it becomes weaker enough to test 116.30 & 115.50 support-marks. On the upside, 119.55 and 120.20 may entertain the pair’s short-term pullbacks before offering 120.60 resistance to traders. Should the pair successfully clear 120.60, the 121.00, 121.30 & 50-day SMA figure of 121.55 are likely consecutive north-side numbers to appear.

NZD/JPY

nzdjpy

NZDJPY is presently witnessing downside pressure to test 81.00 round figure before challenging an upward slanting trend-line support at 80.80, breaking which 80.60 and 80.40 might please sellers. If bears dominate momentum after breaking 80.40, the 80.00 round figure can offer an intermediate halt during the pair’s southward trajectory towards 79.70 & 79.00 support-levels. Given the pair takes a U-turn from present levels, the 81.30 and an immediate descending trend-line, at 81.55, may keep restricting its near-term advances, breaking which 81.80 & another trend-line resistance, at 82.00, becomes important to watch. In case the quote manage to extend its recovery beyond 82.00, the 82.55 & 82.75 can be good to expect.

CAD/JPY

cadjp

CADJPY is another example of the JPY pair which signal downside. The pair indicates 85.50 as quick support before giving importance to 84.75-80 horizontal-line. However, pair’s sustained break of 84.75 opens the door for its drop to 100-day SMA figure of 84.00 and then to 83.30 support-mark. Meanwhile, 86.10 and 86.60 are expected immediate resistances for traders to observe before looking at the 50-day SMA figure of 86.80 while the pair’s additional up-move above 86.80 can be confined by more than two-month old descending trend-line, at 87.40. If at all the quote manage to clear 87.40, it becomes capable enough to aim for 88.00 and the 88.45-50 resistances.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Weekly Analysis – EUR/USD, GBP/AUD, USD/JPY, FTSE and S&P500

Previous week overview

On Tuesday we saw the IMF report concerning Greece, which caused the EUR/USD and Yen pairs to be tumble. As I noticed that euro gave different reactions towards the accident, which is called decoupling. This was not the only decouple acceding during the week. The last three days in the week oil raised from 51.00 to 53.80 on the other hand USD index raised from 100 to 101 during the same period. Repetition of the same phenomena more than a time would raise red flag concerning trading in the FOREX market on the long term. Also the meeting between Trump and Abe strengthened the dollar previous week.

Weekly Outlook

The most important event next week is going to be Yellen’s semiannual testimony under the Capitol Hill. Analysts will monitor her words closely, trying to abstract the next rate hike date.

At the week opening we have Japan’s GDP, also on Tuesday we have UK inflation numbers which I believe will put a lot of weight on the Pound, followed by the Euro GDP. For the rest of the week we will watch the G20 finance ministers meeting.

EUR/USD

I am not going to be exaggerating if I will say that EURUSD had become a risky asset. Yes it is, since it will be too vulnerable to a) Greece VS TROIKA.  b) French – German – Netherland coming up elections and all regarding issues (i.e. FREXIT, NEXIT, GREXIT, ….). Today we have Yellen’s speech which will add more volatility to the pair.

From technical view the pair stands a very strong support and resistance level at the same time, which will make it volatile. It is more likely to be bullish on the short term; however on the medium and long term definitely we will see bearish EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Daily Chart
EUR/USD Daily Chart

The previous chart shows the long bearish direction from 1.1600 to 1.0333, with 38.2% retracement level at 1.0830 formed bullish direction. Followed by correction to the 38.2 level 1.06377 which is the same 23.6 retracement level for the bearish direction closing the week there. This point is a very powerful point will lead the market to some consolidation, with range trading optimistically. I may go long to 1.0770 to be closed 2 hours before Yellen’s speech anyway. (Not favorable pair to trade)

GBP/AUD

This pair has excellent chance for short trading this week. If the CPI numbers on Tuesday are over expectations, the GBP may rise for short period. Eventually, I believe that pair is going to close under the previous week’s closing

The price currently is on 78.6 retracement level at 1.6260 (closing price). If it breaks below it we will test the 1.5780 .

GBP/USD Weekly Chart
GBP/USD Weekly Chart

We can see that the pair couldn’t break the channel and is going towards the strong historical support level. I am comfortable with this trade, as FTSE futures are heading up.

Yen Pairs

If you have read my article “IT IS NOT EASY TO TRADE THE YEN” you must have a background for what I am about to say. President Trump and prime minister Abe had a summit with no big titles leaving direct effect on the markets. That is exactly what is happening with Yen pairs. Next weeks we will see no clear direction for those pairs due to different fundamental and technical reasons.

USD/JPY Daily Chart
USD/JPY Daily Chart

Watching the USD/JPY you will see it moving within sideways channel between the 38.2% retracement level of the rising trend, and 61.8% retracement level for the downtrend at 116.00. it is a good hedging opportunity between the current price and both levels. Same thing applicable for CHF/JPY and CAD/JPY.

FTSE futures

We can see clearly that the chart is forming a clear rising wedge, which is accompanied with the world indices. Longing to the 0% at 7280.00, then get ready to down free fall.

FTSE Daily Chart
FTSE Daily Chart

S&P futures

S&P chart showing same idea shown in FTSE chart, a bigger rising wedge from 2008. Volume as well shows dropping trend from 8/2015. This stock became very risky at moment. It is advised to stay away till the renounce occur, it is more likely to take 1-4 weeks till we can see free fall to the 2000 level.

S&P 500 Daily Chart
S&P 500 Daily Chart

Good luck

CAD-JPY – There are More Interesting Instruments Than EURUSD and GBPUSD

CAD/JPY being an exotic instrument is not very popular among FX traders but investors should appreciate every good technical pattern on any chart, not limiting themselves to only one asset like for example EURUSD. On CADJPY we can see a very promising technical situation which is promoting the long side of the market.

Since the last November, the price was advancing higher and made over 1400 pips. In December, the appreciation stopped on a very important resistance created by the lows from August and September 2015. After the breakout, this level was tested as a resistance in April 2016 and as we can see, plays an important role again now (orange area).

CAD/JPY Chart
CAD/JPY Chart

After touching 88.8, the upswing was paused by the local correction, which is still shaped like a wedge (black lines). Wedge is a trend continuation pattern so this is our base scenario here. In addition to that, buyers managed to defend the local long-term support on 84.8 (green) and deter the price from the test of the lower line of the wedge. This shows that the buying pressure here is high. On the lower time frames you would also see that the bounce from the support was done with a help from the triple bottom formation. I am not a fan of this formation but the divergence here was clear and the reversal was sharp.

After bouncing from the 84,8 the price created three long bullish candles. This alone is enogh to create a buy signal, but as you can see, we have more additional factors here. The closest resistance is the upper line of the flag and the chances that the price will get there are very high.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis