Three good shorts: EURUSD, CHFJPY and FTSE

FOMC decision from yesterday did not surprise the market participants. For sure, the bullish approach towards the USD is still on the market. EURUSD is on a good way to test the lower line of the symmetric triangle pattern. Breakout is very probable, with a potential target on the long-term neckline of the H&S formation.

CHFJPY is trying to erase the gains from the first two days of this week. It is happening on a very important resistance and we do have a chance for a double top formation. On the weekly chart. Sellers are fighting for a shooting star candle, second in the 3 weeks, which can be a super strong sell signal.

FTSE broke the major up trendline and the lower line of the wedge pattern. Later, traders used both as a strong resistance. That confirms the sell signal and sets the bearish sentiment.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis

The Japanese Yen is Leveling Out

After a phase of heavy growth in the middle of July, the USD has finally given Yen a chance to reassert itself. It looks like now the market is almost not interested in safe assets as Yen, for example, and is calmly assessing external risk levels.

Now, investors are paying more attention to statistics. On Monday, Japan issued an interesting release on June retail sales which allows one to assume the positive economic impulse will be restored in the II quarter of 2018. The report has demonstrated the growth of the index to 1.5% m/m after a 1.7% m/m fall in May. On a year-on-year basis the statistics are also positive: here we can see a 1.8% rise, while the forecast predicted only a 1.7% rise, with the previous value being 0.6%.

However, one cannot fully assume that it will be definitely the retail sector that will reboot the economic growth. Nevertheless, one can assume that, together with the other main fundamental reports, demonstrating the stabilization in the economic system after the decline at the beginning of the year, the retail sales indicator will lay the groundwork for the further improvement of the situation.

According to different estimates, there is a risk now for Japan to get involved in the trade wars between the US and China. As of yet, there are no compelling reasons to be afraid of it, but in theory, such possibility really exists. If the American partners again demand Japan to reduce the trade balance surplus, the economic system of the Land of the rising Sun will again find itself in the risk zone.

This week a sufficient number of Japanese statistics will be issued – on Tuesday, the July session of the Bank of Japan will be finished. More objective estimates of the further interventions of the regulator may be made following the results of this session. This is very important of the behavior of Yen.

In order to understand the current market status of the USDJPY currency pair, we have to analyze the long-term technical picture. If we evaluate the general situation by looking at the graphical analysis, we will see that the Market is slowly but surely entering a downtrend. We can interpret the current local situation as a correction in relation to the first down impulse. On the other hand, the Market is trying to secure itself below the surpassed support line, by testing it from below. In the short run, the pullback can be directed towards the levels of 111.58 and 111.88. By understanding that the downtrend is developing in the “impulse-correction-impulse” mode, we can expect the next down impulse to be directed towards the levels of 108.90 and 107.92, which corresponds to 50.0% and 61.8% according to Fibonacci, in relation to the previous uptrend.

USD/JPY 4H Chart
USD/JPY 4H Chart

This article was written by Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, a Chief Analyst at RoboForex

Important CHF Pairs’ Technical Outlook: 25.07.2018

USD/CHF

Unless breaking seven-week old ascending trend-line, at 0.9890 now, the USDCHF is less likely to extend its recent pullback towards 0.9850 and the 0.9820 support-levels. However, pair’s dip beneath the 0.9820 isn’t a sure signal for its plunge as 0.9780-90 horizontal-region, followed by the 200-day SMA level of 0.9750, may still challenge the sellers. On the contrary, the 0.9955 and the 0.9990 can entertain short-term buyers of the pair, breaking which there are multiple resistances between the 1.0035-70 area to watch. In case prices rally beyond 1.0070 on a daily closing basis, the 1.0100 and the 61.8% FE level of 1.0175 may appear in the Bulls’ radar to target.

EUR/CHF

Alike USDCHF, the EURCHF’s downside is also capped by the immediate support, herein it is the 1.1595-85 zone, that may trigger the pair’s U-turn towards nearby TL resistance figure of 1.1615. Should the quote surpasses 1.1615 barrier, it can rise to 1.1640 and then to the 1.1655-60 whereas 1.1680 and the 1.1715 may question the pair’s additional strength. If at all the pair refrains to respect the 1.1595-85 support-zone, the 1.1550 and the 1.1500 can mark their presence on the chart. Also, pair’s successful trading past-1.1500 can highlight the importance of the 1.1475, the 1.1460 and the 1.1365 supports.

GBP/CHF

GBPCHF’s recovery from nine-month old ascending trend-line may support the pair to aim for the 1.3125 and the 50-day SMA level of 1.3165 but a downward slanting TL stretched since April can confine its further upside around 1.3210. Given the pair’s D1 close above 1.3210, the 1.3270 and the 100-day SMA level of 1.3335 may please the optimists. Meanwhile, the 1.3020 can offer rest to the pair’s adjacent downturn, breaking which the 1.2970 trend-line could grab investor attention. Though, break of 1.2970 on a daily closing basis can make the pair vulnerable enough to plunge towards the 1.2910 and the 1.2850 supports.

CHF/JPY

Even after reversing from 111.70, the CHFJPY’s up-moves may soon struggle to conquer the 112.15-20 horizontal-resistance, which if broken could escalate its rise to confront the 112.60 and the 113.00 hurdles to north. Let’s say the pair manage to clear the 113.00 mark, then it can rally to the 113.25 and the 113.65, comprising 61.8% FE, resistance-levels. Alternatively, the quote’s dip below 111.70 may avail the 111.35 trend-line as a point to take a U-turn, failing to which can drag the pair to 111.00 and the 110.60 numbers. Should prices keep declining post-110.60,  the 110.30 and the 109.75 may act as buffers during its south-run to 109.00 round-figure support.

Interesting Trading Setups on the Silver and CHF

Silver started this week with a breakout of the lower line of the wedge, which in theory, gave us a strong sell signal. Buyers try to deny that today and they initiate a reversal, which potentially can create us a right shoulder of the inverse head and shoulders formation. For the proper buy signal, we need to see the breakout of the black neckline first.

CHFJPY is having a very interesting bearish situation supported mostly on the higher timeframes. On the weekly chart, we do have a shooting star bouncing from the horizontal resistance. On the daily chart, we do have a false breakout above the orange area and on the H4 chart, we do have a head and shoulders formation. For the proper sell signal, we need to see the breakout of the pink horizontal support first.

USDCHF broke the up trendline and is now testing it as the closest resistance. We are also in the flag formation so for the proper sell signal, we need to see the breakout of the lower line of the flag.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis

USD/JPY Fundamental Daily Forecast – Yen Spikes Higher on Reports BOJ Officials Considering Policy Change

The Dollar/Yen is trading sharply lower early Monday as investors continue to react to a combination of potentially bearish fundamental and technical events.

At 0618 GMT, the USD/JPY is trading 110.931, down 0.532 or 0.47%.

The forex pair opened lower early Monday in reaction to U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments on the greenback’s strength last Friday and his criticism of Fed policy on Thursday. The Japanese Yen also spiked higher on reports Japan’s central bank is debating moves to reduce its massive monetary stimulus.

Essentially, Trump expressed concerns that the Fed’s plan to raise interest rates at least two more times this year will drive the U.S. Dollar higher, potentially hurting the U.S. economy.

The Dollar/Yen was also pressured after Reuters and other media reported that the Bank of Japan is actively discussing changes to its policies. The BOJ is scheduled to hold its next monetary policy meeting on July 30 and 31.

The USD/JPY is currently trading at a two-week, having lost more than two percent from its six-month peak of 113.18 hit less than a week ago.

USDJPY
Daily USD/JPY

Technical factors are also driving the price action early Monday. On Thursday, the USD/USD formed a technically bearish closing price reversal top on the daily chart. The chart pattern was confirmed on Friday and reaffirmed earlier today.

The main range is defined as the May 29 bottom at 108.114 and the July 19 top at 113.210. Its first major target is the 50% to 61.8% retracement zone at 110.662 to 110.061. Buyers could step in on a test of this zone. Triggering a retracement of the break from 113.210 to today’s intraday low.

The nearest short-term bottom is 110.280. A trade through this level will change the main trend to down on the daily chart.


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Forecast

Trump’s comments may have ignited the initial sell-off in the Dollar/Yen, however, they are now an afterthought due to the reports that the BOJ is considering a shift in monetary policy. The story is still breaking and details are sparse, but investors are wasting no time waiting for an official word which probably won’t come out until next week’s central bank meeting.

According to Bloomberg, the BOJ will likely emphasize in its communication that allowing JGB 10-year yields to rise higher than 0.10% will add flexibility to monetary policy, and it is not a tightening.

Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said, “I know absolutely nothing about the basis for those reports,” when asked about the media reports while he was in Buenos Aires to attend a meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors.

“Largest Bilateral Trade Deal Ever” – Trade Deal Between Japan and the European Union Covers 600 Million People

The trade agreement will probably secure the global trading system from the threat of protectionism and covers almost a third of the global economy.

This agreement will eliminate all the tariffs on nearly all goods between Japan and the European Union and covers 600 million people altogether. Among all products, it will remove tariffs for exports like wine, Olive oil, and Cheese.

In addition, Japanese automobile makers and electronics firms will have fewer obstacles in the European Union.

The president of the European Council, Donald Tusk, stated: “largest bilateral trade deal ever.”

He added in a written statement: “Relations between the European Union and Japan have never been stronger, geographically we are far apart, But politically and economically we could hardly be any closer.”

This Agreement comes as an opposition to President Donald Trump tariffs on China and the EU and the rising threat of trade war.

According to CNN Baker McKenzie partner, Ross Denton said the deal signed Tuesday sends “a very strong signal to the US Administration that the EU and Japan, two major trade partners of the US, both see the benefits of removing barriers and reducing, not increasing tariffs.”

Cecilia Malmström, the EU trade commissioner, said that last month the US closed the door to Europe although the Europeans ware willing to lower its tariffs. The US deepened the conflict as with the implementation of new tariffs on Aluminum and Steel.

Another negative act by President Trump was at the start of his presidency when he canceled the Trans-Pacific Partnership which was another deal that lowered tariffs for the eleven remaining signatories. The deal is expected to start in 2019 after approved by both sides.

This article was written by Marios Athinodorou, TeleTrade’s market analyst, and commentator. Among others, Marios is delivering weekly trading webinars. Sign up for upcoming webinars here.

Reversal on the USDCHF?

The new week starts for the USD on the back foot. The Greenback is loosing almost on every front. First troubles we could have seen already on Friday, so Today we do have a continuation of the movements that happened at the end of the last week.

One of the most technical setups can be seen on the USDCHF, where Friday ended with a bearish shooting star pattern. The place, where this pattern is present is not random as it is a long-term horizontal resistance (orange). In the smaller time frames, that shooting star is additionally shaped like the head and shoulders formation, which strengtheners the sell signal. Another bearish factor here can be the false breakout of the green horizontal resistance but for that, we need to see the USDCHF to decline slightly more than now. If You are still not convinced to go short, you can wait for the breakout of the long-term up trendline. Price closing below the black line will be a super strong sell signal.

USDCHF Daily Chart
USDCHF Daily Chart

As for now, the green support holds, which is a short-term positive factor but in my opinion, that area should be broken soon and sellers will finally have an occasion to make some money on this instrument.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis

Technical Outlook For Important JPY Pairs: 20.06.2018

USD/JPY

With the 109.55-50 support-region activating USDJPY’s U-turn, the pair seems eager enough to confront the support-turned-resistance line of 110.35 for one more time. If comparative USD strength clears the 110.35 barrier, the 110.80-85 horizontal-region and the 111.40 resistances should be watched closely as break of which could open the door for the pair’s rally towards 111.80 and 61.8% FE level of 112.30. On the contrary, pair’s failure to surpass the 110.35 TL can portray Breakout-Pullback-Continuation (BPC) formation, which in-turn highlight the 109.80 and the 109.55-50 rest-points. Given the pair’s dip beneath the 109.50, the 109.10 & 108.70 might offer intermediate halts ahead of pushing sellers to target the 108.10-107.90 broad support-zone.

GBP/JPY

GBPJPY is struggling around 144.25-10 support-area but oversold RSI can trigger the pair’s pullback in direction to the 145.30 and the 146.00-146.10 resistance-zone. However, the 147.25 and the 148.00 are likely strong resistances that could confine the pair’s upside past-146.10, if not then the 148.90, the 149.15 and the 150.00 may appear in Bulls’ radars. Alternatively, pair’s decline below 144.10 may drag it to 143.15 and the 142.00 round-figure whereas the 141.50, comprising 61.8% FE, could try disappointing Bears afterwards.

CAD/JPY

Sustained break of ascending trend-line indicates the CADJPY’s further downside to 82.40 and the 81.65 but 81.40-30 might question the pair’s weakness then after. In case if the pair refrains to respect the 81.30 mark, the 81.00, the 80.25 and the 80.00 psychological-magnet can mark their presence on the chart. Assuming that the pair’s reverses from present levels, the 83.45-50 and the 83.85 are likely immediate hurdles it needs to surpass before aiming 84.25 and the 50-day SMA level of 84.90. Moreover, pair’s successful rise above 84.90 enables it to meet the 85.30 and the 86.00 resistance-levels.

CHF/JPY

Even after closing above 50-day SMA on Tuesday, CHFJPY again tries to offer a D1 close beneath the 110.55 SMA level, which in-turn could fetch the pair to 110.00 and the 109.45 trend-line support. Should the quote declines below 109.45, the 109.00, the 108.45 and the 107.85, including 61.8% FE, may attract traders’ attention. Meanwhile, the 111.10, the 111.50 and the 100-day SMA level of 111.90 may entertain the buyers prior to challenging them with 112.10-20 resistance-area. If at all prices rally beyond 112.20, the 112.70, the 113.00 and the 113.60 may come in limelight.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Important CHF Pairs’ Technical Checks: 30.05.2018

USD/CHF

Even if immediate descending trend-line restricts the USDCHF’s near-term upside, the pair is yet to conquer more than three-month old upward slanting TL, at 0.9855 now, in order to stretch its latest pullback towards 0.9810 and then to the 0.9785, comprising 50-day SMA. Given the seller’s refrain to respect the 0.9785 mark, the 0.9720 and the 200-day SMA level of 0.9700 can appear on the chart. Should the 0.9855 trend-line number triggers the pair’s U-turn, the 0.9900, the 0.9930 and the 0.9955 are likely adjacent resistances that can be aimed while being long but the 0.9980 may confine the quote’s advances afterwards. If at all the pair manages to surpass 0.9980 TL, the 1.0000, the 1.0020 and the 1.0055 could entertain the Bulls ahead of luring them with 61.8% FE level of 1.0145.

CHF/JPY

CHFJPY’s recovery from 109.15-20 has to clear the 110.25-30 and the 110.80 resistances to justify its strength in targeting the 111.55 trend-line barrier. However, pair’s ability to trade successfully beyond 111.55 can fuel it to 112.00 and 112.30 whereas 100-day SMA level of 112.55 may limit its further rise. On the contrary, a D1 close below 109.15 could fetch prices down to 108.45 with 61.8% FE level of 107.60 being follow-on rest-point to watch. Additionally, pair’s sustained south-run beneath the 107.60 could open the gate for its plunge to 106.90 & 106.40 levels.

CAD/CHF

Alike USDCHF, the CADCHF is also testing the support-line, herein it is 0.7600-0.7595 horizontal-zone, which signals brighter chances for the pair’s confrontation to 50-day SMA level of 0.7635 and the 0.7660, including 200-day SMA. If buyers manage to ignore 0.7660 hurdle, they can look for 0.7710 and the 0.7735 resistances. Meanwhile, a downside close below 0.7595 on a daily basis increases the importance of 0.7575 and the 0.7550 figure, encompassing 100-day SMA. Also, pair’s extended declines below 0.7550 might not hesitate flashing 0.7500 as a quote.

NZD/CHF

Technical Update For USD/CHF, CHF/JPY & NZD/CHF: 13.04.2018

USD/CHF

Having failed to surpass the 0.9640-50 horizontal-area, the USDCHF seems coming back to nearly two-month old ascending trend-line, at 0.9560 now, breaking which 0.9530 & 0.9500 are likely following supports that can please the sellers. However, pair’s drop below 0.9500 opens the gate for its south-run towards 0.9420-15 support-zone. Alternatively, an upside break of 0.9650 may have to clear the 0.9665 resistance in order to aim for the 0.9700 round-figure while 0.96735 and the 0.9770 can entertain the Bulls then after.

CHF/JPY

CHFJPY also took a U-turn from five-week long TL and is indicating the 111.60 and the 111.00 to reappear on the chart; though, an upward slanting trend-line, at 110.80, could confine the pair’s further downside, which if broken could drag the quote to 110.30 and then to the 61.8% FE level of 109.70. Meanwhile, break of the 112.10 trend-line resistance could escalate the pair’s recent recovery in direction to the 112.30, the 112.70 and the 113.10 in a gradual manner. Should prices continue rising post-113.10, the 113.50 and the 114.00 can offer intermediate halts during its rally to the 114.45.

NZD/CHF

Considering the NZDCHF’s successful trading beyond seven-month long descending trend-line, the pair seems all set to challenge the 0.7135-40 horizontal-line, which if broken could propel the quote to 0.7160 and to the 0.7200. If at all buyers command momentum after 0.7200, the 0.7220 & 0.7250 may act as buffers while fueling the pair to 0.7290. Given the overbought RSI play its role and activates the pair’s profit-booking, the 0.7085 can become immediate support before highlighting the resistance-turned-support of 0.7050. Moreover, pair’s sustained downturn beneath the 0.7050 may push traders to 0.7030, the 0.7000 and to the 0.6960 support-levels.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Technical Overview of USD/CHF, CHF/JPY, AUD/CHF & NZD/CHF: 05.04.2018

USD/CHF

USDCHF’s six-week old gradual up-moves might fade soon as not only 100-day SMA level of 0.9610 & the ascending trend-channel resistance, at 0.9645, are there to challenge the nearby upward bias but the 0.9655, comprising 200-day SMA, and 0.9660-65 horizontal-region also stand tall to play their roles. Even if the pair manages to surpass the 0.9665 mark on a daily closing basis, five-month old descending TL, at 0.9700, could offer another strong resistance for the buyers to tackle. As a result, pair’s pullback to 0.9570 and then to the 0.9520 become quite expectable but support-line of the channel, around 0.9475, may limit following downside. Given the pair’s decline beneath the 0.9475, the 0.9420 and the 0.9350 are likely supports that might gain traders’ attention.

CHF/JPY

Having failed to sustain its uptick beyond month-long downward slanting trend-line, the CHFJPY again trades above the same resistance-line, which in-turn signals brighter chances of the pair’s advances to 111.60 and 111.75 immediate barriers ahead of confronting the 112.05-10 horizontal-area. Should prices conquer the 112.10 level, the 112.30, the 112.55 and the 112.70 may question subsequent rise before highlighting the 113.20 level. Meanwhile, the resistance-turned-support line, at 111.00, can provide adjacent rest to the pair, breaking which 110.85 and the 110.60 may become sellers’ concern. If at all the quote continues trading south after 110.60, the 110.30 and the 61.8% FE level of 110.00 should be observed closely.

AUD/CHF

AUDCHF’s U-turn from more than two-month old descending trend-line may drag the pair to 0.7350 but an upward slanting TL, at 0.7325, can confine its further downside. Assuming the pair’s break of 0.7325, it might not hesitate revisiting the 0.7300, the 0.7280 and the 0.7260 supports ahead of taking rest on the recent low of 0.7240. Alternatively, successful clearance of 0.7415 trend-line resistance can accelerate the pair’s recovery towards 0.7445 and then to the 0.7475-80 zone. Additionally, break of 0.7480 could open the door for the pair’s north-run to 0.7510 and 0.7540 resistances.

NZD/CHF

Even if overbought RSI seems fetching the NZDCHF back from its latest trend-line break, pair’s ability to close above yesterday’s high of 0.7020 may help it aim for one more TL figure of 0.7055. Moreover, Bulls’ capacity to cross the 0.7055 mark on a daily closing basis could push them to target 0.7090 and 0.7130 numbers. On the contrary, pair’s close below the 0.6990 TL can reignite the importance of 0.6970 and the 0.6950-55 support-region. Given the quote’s break of 0.6950, the 200-day SMA level of 0.6930, the 0.6900 and the 0.6870, encompassing 100-day SMA, might please the Bears.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Technical Checks For USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY & CHF/JPY: 22.02.2018

USD/JPY

Having been defeated by 107.90 again, the USDJPY seem declining towards 107.00 re-test, breaking which 106.70 and the 106.40 are likely to appear on the chart. In case if the pair continue trading down below 106.40, the 106.00 may act as a small barrier during its south-run in direction to 105.50 and then to the 61.8% FE level of 104.80. Should prices take a U-turn from present levels and surpasses 107.90, also clears the 108.00 round-figure, six-week long downward slanting TL, at 108.40, may try to restrict its following up-side, breaking which 108.80 and 109.10 can become buyers’ favorites. Assuming the pair’s successful advances beyond 109.10, the 109.80 and the 110.40 could please the Bulls.

AUD/JPY

Even after failing to stretch its recent pullback beyond 84.90, the AUDJPY’s downturn may continue finding it hard to break the ten-month long ascending trend-line support, at 83.30 now. As a result, the pair’s bounce to 84.25 and then to the 84.90 become more expected. Given the pair’s ability to extend its recovery above 84.90, the 85.40 and the 86.00 can acquire market attention before the 200-day SMA level of 86.55 comes into play. Alternatively, a daily close below 83.30 can fetch the pair to 82.70 and then to the 82.20 while 81.95 and the 81.45 could entertain the sellers afterwards.

NZD/JPY

With the 78.35-30 horizontal-line again pushing the NZDJPY up, chances of the pair’s another attempt to clear near-term descending trend-line, at 79.00 now, seem brighter. If the quote conquers the 79.00 mark, the 79.30, the 79.50 and the 80.00 are likely consequent resistances to be watched whereas 80.15, the 80.40 and the 80.80 could become important then after. Meanwhile, break of 78.30 may take a halt at 78.00 ahead of making the pair test 77.60 and the 61.8% FE level of 77.15. During the pair’s sustained declines below 77.15, the 77.00, the 76.70 and the 76.00 may be flashed in Bears’ radar to target.

CHF/JPY

While 100-day & 200-day SMA confluence keep limiting CHFJPY’s immediate upside, the pair has to close below three-month old ascending trend-line level of 114.30 in order to decline further. If that happens, the 114.00, the 113.40 and the 113.00 shouldn’t be missed while being short but the 112.60-50 horizontal-line could confine the pair’s downside after 113.00. On the upside, a clear break of 114.80 is likely requirement that prices have to satisfy in order to become capable of targeting 115.30 and the 115.70 resistances. Moreover, pair’s successful trading beyond 115.70 enables it to aim for 116.40 and the 117.00 north-side numbers.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

 

Technical Update For USD/JPY, EUR/JPY & CHF/JPY: 15.02.2018

USD/JPY

Having breached 107.00 and the 106.70 support-marks, the USDJPY seems all set to test an upward slanting trend-line support on the weekly chart, which stays around 106.00 now; however, its further south-run can be restricting by a downward slanting TL support of 105.50, which if broken could enable Bears to demand 104.20 and the 102.80 numbers. Meanwhile, an upside break of 106.70 and the 107.00 could trigger the pair’s recovery in direction to 108.00, the 108.50 and then to the 108.80 resistances. Should prices manage to rise beyond 108.80, the 109.50 and the 110.20 may please the buyers.

EUR/JPY

Even if 100-day SMA has been confining the EURJPY’s near-term advances since almost a week, the pair repeatedly fails to provide a daily closing below six-month old ascending trend-line support, at 133.00 now. If the pair conquers the 133.00 on D1 basis, the 132.00, the 131.60 and the 200-day SMA level of 130.85 are likely consecutive rests that it can avail ahead of revisiting the 130.00 round-figure. Alternatively, a daily close beyond 100-day SMA, the 133.60, could propel the pair towards 134.00, the 134.50 and 135.00 resistances. During the pair’s extended northward trajectory above 135.00, the 135.50 and the 136.30 may appear in the Bulls’ radars to target.

CHF/JPY

CHFJPY’s bounce from two-month old upward slanting trend-line presently struggles with a descending TL that’s been stretched since early-month and is near to 115.05. Given the pair’s ability to surpass 115.05, it can rise to 115.50, the 115.80 and to the 116.20 adjacent resistances. Moreover, pair’s sustained trading above 116.20 can help it challenge the 117.00 and the 117.40 resistance-levels. On the downside, the 114.50 may act as immediate support for the pair before the aforementioned TL support mark of 114.25 comes into play. Should the quote declines further beneath 114.25, the 113.80, the 113.40 and the 113.25 might entertain the sellers.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Technical Outlook of USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, CAD/JPY & CHF/JPY: 01.02.2018

USD/JPY

During its gradual recovery from 108.50, the USDJPY now aims to confront the 109.75-80 resistance-confluence, which if broken could trigger the pair’s upward trajectory towards 110.30 and then to the 110.50. Should prices continue rising beyond 110.50, the 111.00 and the 111.35 are likely numbers to appear on the chart. In case if the pair fails to surpass the 109.80, it can come back to 109.40 and to the 109.00 nearby supports prior to revisiting the 108.50 rest-point. Moreover, pair’s sustained trading below 108.50 makes it weaker enough to test 108.25 and the 61.8% FE level of 107.90.

EUR/JPY

EURJPY is also trying to clear the 136.30-35 horizontal-region that holds the gate for its north-run in direction to the 136.65, the 137.00 and the 61.8% FE level of 137.60. Given the quote’s successful up-moves above 137.60, the 137.90 and the 139.00 may please Buyers. On the downside, the 136.00 and the 135.30 can act as immediate supports for the pair, breaking which 135.00, 50-day SMA level of 134.20 and the ascending trend-line number of 133.80 seems important to watch. Further, pair’s extended downturn beneath 133.80 can raise hopes to see 133.00 and 132.20 as levels.

CAD/JPY

Having bounced from the 88.00 trend-line support, the CADJPY now confronts 100-day SMA level of 89.15, which if cleared on a daily closing basis could escalate the pair’s rise to 89.60 and then to the 90.00 resistances. During the pair’s additional advances beyond 90.00, the 90.40, the 90.80 and the 91.20 could offer intermediate halts to the prices ahead of making them conquer the 91.55-65 horizontal-area. Meanwhile, 88.45 could play the role of adjacent support for the pair, breaking which the 88.00 gains importance. Should the pair drops below 88.00 on a D1 close, it can plunge to another trend-line support of 87.35 and then to the 87.15 before looking at 86.70 mark.

CHF/JPY

Considering the CHFJPY’s successful break of 116.35-45 area, the pair seems capable enough to claim the 117.85-90 resistance; however, its following upside may be capped by overbought RSI and strength of the resistance-line. If the pair surpasses 117.90, the 118.20, the 118.60 and the 61.8% FE level of 119.30 may appear in Bulls’ radars. Alternatively, pair’s D1 close below 117.00 can again fetch it to the 116.45-35 but a short-term ascending trend-line, at 115.75, may limit its further downside. Given the quote’s break of 115.75, it becomes vulnerable to revisit the 115.10 and the 114.80-70 zone that comprises 50-day & 200-day SMA.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Technical Overview of USD/JPY, CAD/JPY, NZD/JPY & CHF/JPY: 21.12.2017

USD/JPY

Having successfully cleared 50-day SMA level, the USDJPY seems all set to conquer short-term descending trend-line resistance-mark of 113.75, break of which could accelerate its latest recovery towards 114.00 and then to the 114.45-50. Given the quote manage to sustain its up-move beyond 114.50, November high around 114.75 might offer intermediate halt during its north-run in direction to 61.8% FE level of 115.40. On the contrary, the 113.00 – 112.90 region, comprising 50-day SMA, may confine the pair’s immediate downside before reigniting the importance of ascending trend-line support of 112.30. In case if the daily close number be lesser than 112.30, it becomes wise to expect the pair’s plunge to 100-day SMA level of 111.80.

CAD/JPY

Unlike USDJPY, the CADJPY recently took a U-turn from the 88.50-55 horizontal-resistance and the RSI is also overbought, which in-turn signals brighter chances for the pair’s pullback to 88.15 and then to the 87.90 adjacent supports. Should prices dip below 87.90, the 87.50 and an upward slanting TL figure of 87.30 might entertain sellers, break of which could push Bears to target 87.20 and the 86.70 rest-points. However, pair’s capacity to surpass 88.55 enables it to confront with 88.70 and the descending trend-line resistance of 88.90. If the pair conquers 88.90, also runs beyond 89.00 round-figure, the 89.30, the 89.80 and the 90.00 could please buyers.

NZD/JPY

Same as the CADJPY, the NZDJPY also struggles to clear near-term strong resistance-region, the 79.45-55, with the overbought RSI favoring probabilities of the pair’s U-turn to 100-day SMA level of 79.15. During the pair’s additional declines below 79.15, the 78.45 and the 50-day SMA level of 78.20 are likely following rests that it could avail ahead of aiming the 77.80, the 77.30 and the 76.90 consecutive supports. Meanwhile, a successful break of 79.55 could trigger the pair’s rise to 80.00 and then to the 80.60 but five-month old descending trend-line, at 81.00 now, may confine it’s advances then after. Given the Bull’s dominance over prices above 81.00, the 81.60-65 seems crucial to watch that holds the door for the pair’s rally to 82.00 and the 82.25 resistances.

CHF/JPY

Contrast to all other JPY pairs discussed above, the CHFJPY has already cleared five-month old descending trend-line resistance on a daily closing basis but has to cross the 115.30-35 mark to be eligible for meeting the 115.60 and the 116.00 north-side numbers. Though, pair’s additional upside beyond 116.00 needs to conquer 116.40-45 horizontal-line in order to flash 117.00 and the 117.75 on the chart. Alternatively, a daily close below 114.70 negates the pair’s breakout and may again fetch it to 100-day SMA level of 114.30, adjacent to the 114.10 mark including 50-day SMA. If at all the pair declines below 114.10, the 113.60, the 113.25 and the 112.95 are likely consequent levels to please the pessimists.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Technical Overview Of Important JPY Pairs: 29.11.2017

USD/JPY

usdjpy

Ever since the USDJPY dropped below the 100-day & 200-day SMA confluence, around 111.60-70, the pair’s up-moves have been confined by the same region that now has an additional back-up of three-week old descending TL; however, the 110.90–111.00 horizontal-area has been successfully limiting the pair’s downturn. Hence, the 110.90 & 111.70 can be considered as strong levels to determine the quote’s near-term trend. Given the pair’s break of 111.70, it can quickly rise to 112.20, the 112.50 and the 50-day SMA level of 112.80 while its follow-on advances may aim for 113.30 and the 113.70 resistances. Alternatively, price-dip below 110.90 can avail 110.70-65 as adjacent support, break of which can further drag the pair to 110.30 and then to the 109.70.

GBP/JPY

gbpjpy

Following its U-turn from October lows, the GBPJPY managed to neglect the near-term downward slanting trend-line and is now heading towards the 150.00 round-figure with 149.65 being an immediate barrier to surpass. Should the pair continue trading up post-150.00 break, the 150.30, the 150.80 and a bit broader TL resistance, near 151.10, could gain buyers’ attention. In case if the pair fails to sustain latest recovery, the resistance-turned-support line, at 148.75, should be observed carefully, break of which can reignite the importance of 148.00 and the 147.55-60 horizontal-line. Moreover, pair’s extended south-run beneath 147.55 has to clear the October low of 146.90 in order to flash 146.50 and the 145.75 on the chart.

CAD/JPY

cadjpy

Even as eleven-week long descending trend-channel portrays the CADJPY’s downturn, support-line of the formation and 200-day SMA level, around 86.20-15, may challenge presently ruling sellers; though, chances of the pair’s decline to 86.50 can’t be denied. If at all the Bears keep directing prices below 86.15, it may not be a surprise to witness 85.40 and 85.00 as rest-points. Meanwhile, the 87.40 and the 88.00 can entertain buyers during the pair’s pullback, breaking which 88.30 may offer an intermediate halt to the up-moves before making them confront the channel-resistance and 100-day SMA confluence-zone of 88.70-75. Furthermore, pair’s successful break of 88.75 could open the door for its northward trajectory targeting 89.55 and the 90.00 round-fiigure.

CHF/JPY

chfjpy

CHFJPY has been struggling with an ascending trend-line support since mid-month. As a result, chances of the pair’s pullback to 113.80 seem gaining acceptance but its rally beyond the same becomes doubtful unless the downward slanting TL, at 114.15, and 50-day SMA level of 114.60, aren’t broken. Given the quote’s ability to rise above 114.60, it can claim 115.00 and the 115.40 resistances. On the downside, a daily closing below 113.00 can activate the pair’s decline to 112.60 and then to the 112.00 while 111.50 and the 111.00 may please the sellers then after. If at all the 111.00 refrains to hold the pair’s south-run, the 110.50 & 110.00 may appear in Bears’ radar.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Technical Checks For Important CHF Pairs: 22.11.2017

USD/CHF

usdchf

While pullback moves from 0.9945 triggered the USDCHF’s decline, nearly six-week long ascending trend-line, at 0.9870 now, might confine the pair’s downside, if not, then its extended drop to the 0.9850 and the 0.9835 horizontal-line become imminent. In case if additional selling pressure fetches the pair below 0.9835, the 0.9800 and the 0.9770 can please the Bears. Should the pair reverses from present levels, the 0.9915 can offer immediate resistance before the downward slanting TL, around 0.9940, comes into play. Given the pair’s ability to surpass the 0.9940 trend-line mark, another descending line, at 0.9985, may try disappointing the buyers, failing to which can propel the prices to 1.0020 prior to reigniting the importance of 1.0035-40 region.

GBP/CHF

gbpchf

Unlike USDCHF, the GBPCHF recently reversed from 1.3165-75 horizontal-line and has comparatively larger space towards south before the 50-day SMA level of 1.3020, adjacent to 1.2990 support-line, gain market attention. If the pair dips beneath 1.2990 on a daily closing basis, the 1.2940, the 1.2900 and the 1.2850-55 are likely rests that it may avail. Alternatively, a clear break of 1.3175 beyond D1 close could push the pair to the 1.3200, the 1.3240 and then to the early-month high around 1.3330.

CHF/JPY

chfjpy

With a three-week old descending trend-line repeatedly restricting the CHFJPY’s south-run and the RSI is also around oversold region, chances of the pair’s pullback to the 113.50, the 113.80 and to the 114.00 become brighter. However, a two-month old resistance-line, near 114.40, might challenge the pair’s additional strength, which if broken could escalate the recovery to 114.70, the 114.85 and then to the 115.00. Meanwhile, break of the support-line, at 113.00 now, may quickly fetch the quote to 61.8% FE level of 112.75 but its following south-run may be confined by the 112.50-45 horizontal-area. Given the Bears’ dominance over prices drag them beneath 112.45, the 111.90 and the 111.45 could soon appear on the chart.

CAD/CHF

cadchf

CADCHF’s U-turn from 0.7775 again indicates the pair’s decline to the 0.7730 and to the 0.7720; though, 0.7705–0.7700 horizontal-area may question its further downside. In case if the pair drops below 0.7700, the 0.7670, the 0.7645 and the 0.7600 can entertain the sellers. On the upside, 0.7760 and the 0.7775 can act as immediate resistances for the pair, breaking which the 0.7800 horizontal-line becomes important. Should the pair successfully clear the 0.7800, the 0.7825 and the 0.7855 are likely intermediate halts that it can avail ahead of confronting the 0.7870-75 resistance-zone.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Yen Churns Within Known Range

The Yen has weakened in early trading against the U.S Dollar this morning, but it is approaching important resistance levels which have proven to be strong since March of this year. Traders with a speculative taste may be tempted to sell the U.S Dollar against the Yen.

Yen Weakening in Early Trading

The Yen has weakened early this morning as the U.S Dollar has been strengthened against the Japanese currency. The Yen is currently unchanged against the greenback.

USD/JPY 1H Chart
USD/JPY 1H Chart

Interestingly, the weakness in the Yen this morning has occurred as the Nikkei Index has gone into a cautious phase and equities have been sold.

Resistance Remains Strong for Yen

The Yen remains under the 114.00 level against the U.S Dollar and traders may view this weak terrain as important resistance. A look at the Yen’s mid-term chart shows it remains within a rather consolidated range.

USD/JPY 4H Chart
USD/JPY 4H Chart

Gross Domestic Product numbers will come from Japan early on Wednesday and this could affect market sentiment.

A Taste for Speculation Among Yen Traders

The Yen’s recent trading has produced a well-practiced territory for traders. Asian investors have shown a great deal of risk appetite in equity Indexes, but the Yen has not sustained values above important resistance levels of 114.30 since March of this year.

Traders with a taste for speculation may see the current weakness being displayed in the Yen and believe it is time for yet another reversal, meaning they might sell the U.S Dollar against the Japanese currency.

USD/JPY Daily Chart
USD/JPY Daily Chart

In the short term, we believe the Yen may be positive. Mid-term and Long-term we are unbiased.

Yaron Mazor is a senior analyst at SuperTraderTV.

SuperTraderTV Academy is a leader in investing and stock trading education. Sign up for a class today to learn proven strategies on how to trade smarter.

Important CHF Pairs’ Technical Checks: 08.11.2017

USD/CHF

It’s been nearly a fortnight since the USDCHF moves are confined within a 105-pip range of 0.9935 to 1.0040. However, pair’s repeated failures to clear the 1.0040, coupled with rising Geo-political uncertainty favoring CHF strength, support more of its downside than the otherwise at least for the short-term. Presently, the 0.9960 and the 0.9950 are likely immediate supports that the pair can avail during its pullback before challenging the 0.9940-35 horizontal-region. Given the quote drops below 0.9935, the 0.9900 and the 0.9870 can quickly appear on the chart, which if broken could give way to expecting 0.9835 and the 0.9815 as following rests. On the upside, the 1.0010 can limit the pair’s nearby advances, breaking which it can rise to 1.0035-40 area. Should prices surpass 1.0040, the 61.8% FE level of 1.0065 and the 1.0100 can be targeted by the buyers.

EUR/CHF

eurchf

Having bounced from support-line of the adjacent descending triangle, the EURCHF seems now heading towards the formation resistance of 1.1625 with 1.1595 being a nearby stop. If the pair manages to clear the 1.1625 mark, the 1.1660 and the 1.1690 may act as intermediate halt during its northward trajectory to October high around 1.1710. Alternatively, the 1.1545 figure could confine the pair’s immediate downside, breaking which 1.1520 and 1.1480 could entertain sellers prior to pleasing them with 1.1465. In case of the sustained downturn beneath 1.1465, the 1.1425 may become a small barrier for the Bears ahead of looking at 1.1385 level.

CHF/JPY

chfjpy

Another pullback from 114.35-40 is likely dragging the CHFJPY in the direction to the 113.35 but a break of 113.60 seems pre-requisite. Should the quote maintain its south-run after 113.35, the 61.8% FE level of 113.00 may comeback as levels, breaking which chances of its plunge to 112.50 can’t be denied. Meanwhile, 114.00 and the 114.25 could restrict the pair ahead of reigniting the importance of 114.35-40. Let’s say the Bulls propel the pair beyond 114.40, the 114.80 and the 115.10 could still challenge their claim to 115.70 resistance-mark.

AUD/CHF

audchf

AUDCHF is currently struggling to justify its latest bounce by clearing the 0.7670 TL resistance, which if surpassed can help it extend the recovery to the 0.7685 and then to the 0.7705 before confronting 0.7715-20 horizontal-region. If the pair clears the 0.7720, the 0.7740, the 0.7760 and the 0.7775 are likely consecutive resistances to become alive. In case of the pair’s inability to break 0.7670 trend-line resistance, the 0.7645 and the 0.7625 TL support should be given proper attention, breaking which 0.7615 and the 0.7600 may grab the limelight. During the pair’s additional declines below 0.7600, the 0.7575 and the 0.7555 can be targeting while being short.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Important JPY Pairs’ Technical Overview: 29.09.2017

USD/JPY

With a fortnight long ascending trend-channel support restricting the USDJPY’s downturn, chances of the pair’s extended recovery towards the 113.25, the 113.45 and then to the 113.70 seems quite acceptable. However, the 114.00 round-figure and the channel-resistance of 114.40 might confine its following advances, failing to which can further propel the north-run in direction to 114.65 and the 115.10 upside numbers. On the contrary, pair’s break of channel-support, at 112.30 now, can quickly fetch it to 111.40 and to the 110.70 rest-points. Moreover, during the quote’s sustained decline below 110.70, the 110.25, the 109.90 and the 109.20 could entertain the sellers.

NZD/JPY

nzdjpy

Even if 100-day SMA triggered the NZDJPY’s U-turn during early-week, the pair couldn’t clear 81.65 resistance and is presently witnessing pullback moves to re-test the 80.75 and the 100-day SMA level of 80.45. Should the pair closes below 80.45, the 79.70 and the 79.20 can offer small barriers before the longer-term TL support of 78.45 gains importance. Meanwhile, a clear break above 81.65 may help the pair to aim for 82.00 and the 82.80 resistance-levels, surpassing which 83.60 and the 83.90 could reappear on the chart. In case if Bulls keep dominating the momentum after 83.90, it seems wise to expect the pair’s northward trajectory targeting 61.8% FE level of 85.35.

CHF/JPY

chfjpy

Following the CHFJPY’s bounce from 115.00–115.05 support-zone, the pair is heading to again confront the 116.15-20 horizontal-resistance that confined its upsides off-late. Should the pair manages to break 116.20, it can easily rise to 116.45 and then to the 61.8% FE level of 116.80 while 117.00 and the 117.70 could please Buyers afterwards. Alternatively, the 115.60 and the 115.30 may offer adjacent rests to the pair during its pullback ahead of highlighting the 115.05–115.00 area. If at all the south-run stretches below 115.00, the 114.70, the 114.25-20 and the 113.65 may act as consecutive supports for the pair.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal