Crude Oil Price Update – Formed Potentially Bullish Weekly Closing Price Reversal Bottom

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures hit their lowest level in more than a year last week, but the market still managed to close higher for the period. This could be a sign that the buying is greater-than-the-selling at current price levels. The rebound in prices was fueled by reports that Russia had agreed to team with an OPEC-led group to cut production in an effort to reduce supply and stabilize prices.

Last week, January WTI crude oil settled at $50.93, up $0.51 or +1.01%.

WTI Crude Oil
Weekly January WTI Crude Oil

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. However, momentum may be getting ready to shift to the upside with the formation of a closing price reversal bottom last week.

A closing price reversal bottom will not indicate a change in trend, but a shift in momentum to up. A trade through $52.56 will confirm the chart pattern. This could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 week rally. A move through $49.41 will negate the chart pattern and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s chart pattern and close at $50.93, the direction of the January WTI crude oil market this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to last week’s high at $52.56.

Bullish Scenario

Taking out $52.56 will confirm last week’s potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom. Sustaining the rally will indicate the buying is getting stronger. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to extend into the major Fibonacci level at $54.79.

Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on the first test of $54.79. Overtaking it could trigger an acceleration to the upside with $58.95 the next likely upside target.

Bearish Scenario

The inability to sustain a rally following a breakout over $52.56 or a sustained move under this level will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a retest of last week’s low at $49.41. Taking out this level could drive the market into a pair of main bottoms at $47.96 and $46.00.

Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Key Weekly Support Zone $1212.60 to $1203.30

Gold futures finished lower last week with the market underpinned by the prospect of a slowdown in the pace of future rate hikes by the Fed, but gains were capped by a stronger U.S. Dollar.

Gold rallied last week after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed was nearing neutral, while suggesting the pace of future rate hikes would likely mean fewer than three rate hikes in 2019. This would be a marked change from previous projections. Safe-haven buying into the U.S. Dollar, ahead of the crucial trade talks between U.S. President Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping this week-end in Argentina, weighed on demand for dollar-denominated gold.

Last week, February Comex Gold futures settled at $1226.00, down $3.10 or -0.25%.

Comex Gold
February December Comex Gold

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. A trade through $1252.00 will change the main trend to up. A move through $1173.20 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through $1236.70 will change the minor trend to up. A move through $1202.40 will reaffirm the trend.

The short-term range is $1173.20 to $1252.00. Its retracement zone at $1212.60 to $1203.30 is support. This zone stopped the selling two weeks ago.

The main range is $1393.70 to $1173.20. Its retracement zone at $1283.50 to $1309.50 is the primary upside target.

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s price action and the close at $1220.20, the tone of the market this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term retracement zone at $1212.60 to $1203.30.

Bullish Scenario

A breakout over $1236.70 will change the minor trend to up. This could create the upside momentum needed to challenge the main top at $1252.00. Taking out this level will change the main trend to up. This could trigger a surge into the major retracement zone at $1283.50 to $1309.50.

Bearish Scenario

The inability to take out and sustain a rally over $1236.70 will signal the presence of sellers. A failure to hold the support cluster at $1212.60 to $1202.40 will also indicate the selling is getting stronger. Taking out $1202.40 could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next major target the main bottom at $1173.20.

Natural Gas Price Update – Initial Support This Week $4.082, Best Support $3.947 to $3.873

Natural gas futures finished the week higher despite a smaller-than-expected weekly U.S. storage decline. This was probably because the data was stale and investors were already looking forward to the next week’s report and the weather forecasts 10 to 14 days in the future.

Helping to keep a lid on prices was a forecast that pointed to a mid-December break from cold temperatures across much of the country. The price action late in the week may have been fueled by short-covering ahead of the week-end, or possibly aggressive buyers betting against the milder temperatures forecast for mid-December.

Last week, January Natural Gas futures settled at $4.612, up $0.257 or +5.90%.

Natural Gas
Weekly January Natural Gas

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. However, the market traded inside the wide range from the week-ending November 16 for a second week. This tends to indicate investor indecision and impending volatility.

A trade through $4.964 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through $3.199 will change the main trend to down on the weekly chart.

The main range is $2.930 to $4.964. Its retracement zone at $3.947 to $3.707 is a potential downside target and support. This area provided support the week-ending November 16.

The minor range is $3.199 to $4.964. Its retracement zone at $4.082 to $3.873 provided support last week when the market hit its low at $4.038.

The combination of the two retracement zones creates a key support area at $3.947 to $3.873.

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Given last week’s price action, the direction of the January Natural Gas futures contract is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at $4.082.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $4.082 will indicate the presence of buyers. If they can maintain the current upside momentum then they may take a run at $4.964. Although it will be a technical breakout, the volume is going to have to increase on the move to sustain the rally. A rally generated by short-covering and buy stops will not last.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $4.082 will signal the presence of sellers. The break, however, is likely to be labored because of potential support levels at $3.947, $3.873 and $3.707. This is also because there is a storage deficit and several more months of winter. Meaning, buyers are likely to continue to come in on the breaks.

The technical picture will change dramatically if $3.707 fails as support. However, it is going to take a major shift in the fundamentals to do this.

Crude Oil Price Update – Reversal Bottom Suggests Shift in Momentum, Trend Changes to Up on Trade Through $52.56

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures finished lower but inside the previous day’s range. The move suggests investor indecision and impending volatility. There was no follow-through to the upside which would’ve confirmed Thursday’s potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom. This raises questions about whether the chart pattern was formed by aggressive counter-trend buying or weak buy stops.

Helping to underpin the market late this week was a report that said Russia may join OPEC in cutting production. Additionally, Bloomberg reported OPEC’s advisory committee suggested decreasing production by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) from last month’s levels. Surging oil production in the United States, Russia and a number of OPEC members kept a lid on prices.

Prices could tumble further next week if the United States and China fail to reach an agreement on trade.

On Friday, January WTI crude oil futures closed at $50.93, down $0.52 or 1.02%.

WTI Crude Oil
Daily January WTI Crude Oil

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, a new main top has formed at $52.56. This is important because a trade through this price will change the main trend to up.

The market also formed a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom at $49.41 on November 29. If confirmed on a breakout over $52.20 then momentum will shift to the upside.

A trade through $49.41 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The short-term range is $52.56 to $49.41. Its 50% level or pivot is $50.99.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Friday’s price action and the close at $50.93, the direction of the January WTI crude oil futures contract on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term pivot at $50.99.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $50.99 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for counter-trend buyers to take a run at the main top at $52.56. A move through this level will change the main trend to up. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the market to surge into the main Fibonacci level at $54.79.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $50.99 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a retest of $49.41. If this fails then look for renewed selling pressure with the next potential downside target coming in at $47.96 and $46.00.

Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Intermediate Term Strengthens Over $1233.10, Weakens Under $1213.70

Gold prices finished lower on Friday as investors bought the U.S. Dollar as a hedge against an unfavorable outcome of this week-end’s crucial talk between U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping.  The stronger greenback drove down foreign demand for dollar-denominated gold. Continuing to underpin the market were the dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who said on Wednesday that interest rates were close to “neutral”. Also weighing on gold prices were expectations of a Fed rate hike in December.

On Friday, February Comex Gold futures settled at $1226.00, down $4.40 or -0.36%.

 Comex Gold
Daily February Comex Gold

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has shifted to the downside with the formation of a new secondary lower top. A trade through $1236.70 will reaffirm the uptrend. A move through $1216.80 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is down. A trade through $1234.90 will change the minor trend to up.

The main range is $1190.00 to $1252.00. Its retracement zone at $1221.00 to $1213.70 is support.

The short-term range is $1202.40 to $1236.70. Its retracement zone at $1219.60 to $1215.50 falls inside the main retracement zone. This zone is also support.

The intermediate range is $1252.00 to $1202.40. Its retracement zone at $1227.20 to $1233.10 is resistance.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s price action and Friday’s close at $1222.10, the direction of the February Comex gold futures contract on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at $1227.20.

Bullish Scenario

The dollar is likely to weaken if the U.S. and China make a favorable trade deal. This should help underpin gold prices. A sustained move over $1227.20 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to extend into the Fibonacci level at $1233.10.

Overtaking $1233.10 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could lead to a test of $1234.90 and a breakout over the main top at $1236.70. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the main top at $1252.00 the next major target.

Bearish Scenario

If Trump and Xi don’t make a deal then look for the U.S. Dollar to rally. This should put pressure on gold prices.

A sustained move under $1227.20 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into a 50% price cluster at $1221.00 to $1219.60.

If this area fails then look for a drive into the Fibonacci price cluster at $1215.50 to $1213.70. The latter is the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with $1202.40 the next major downside target.

Natural Gas Price Update – Strengthens Over $4.557, Weakens Under $4.431

Natural gas futures posted a wide trading range on Friday, hitting a new high for the week in the process, but the market still finished slightly lower for the session. Helping to underpin the market was overnight models which showed more intense cold for December 8-10, however, gains were capped by a forecast calling for a long-range warming front toward the middle of the month.

On Friday, January Natural Gas futures settled at $4.640, down $0.006 or -0.13%.

Natural Gas
Daily January Natural Gas

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, the upside momentum is weak. A trade through $4.964 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is down. This lead to the weakening of the momentum. The minor trend will change to up on a trade through $4.875. This will also shift momentum to the upside. A trade through $4.038 will reaffirm the minor trend. Taking out $3.898 will indicate the selling is getting stronger.

The short-term range is $4.964 to $3.898. The market is trading on the strong side of its retracement zone at $4.557 to $4.431. This is helping to give the market a slight upside bias. This zone is also support.

The main range is $3.199 to $4.964. Its retracement zone at $4.082 to $3.873 is major support. This zone stopped the selling at $3.898 on November 15 and at $4.038 on November 26.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Friday’s close at $4.640 and the price action, the direction of the January Natural Gas market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at $4.557.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $4.557 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move can generate enough upside momentum then look for the rally to extend into the minor top at $4.875. This is followed by the main top at $4.964.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $4.557 will signal the presence of sellers. The first target is the short-term Fibonacci level at $4.431. This price is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next target the main retracement zone at $4.082 to $3.873.

Basically, look for the upside bias to continue on a sustained move over $4.557 and for a downside bias to develop on a sustained move under $4.431.

Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Caught inside Maze of Retracement Levels

Gold futures are trading lower on Friday, pressured by a stronger U.S. Dollar, but underpinned by lower Treasury yields. Gold is likely to remain rangebound the rest of the session unless there is a major announcement from the G20 meeting in Argentina. Short-term pressure is also coming from expectations of a Fed rate hike in December.

At 1855 GMT, February Comex Gold is trading $1226.10, down $4.30 or -0.35%.

Comex Gold
Daily December Comex Gold

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. It turned up on October 11 when buyers took out $1221.30. Since forming a main top at $1252.00 on October 26, the market has moved sideways to lower, while shifting momentum to the downside.

A trade through $1236.70 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A trade through $1216.80 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is down. This move changed momentum to down. A trade through $1234.90 will change the minor trend to up.

The choppy price action is likely being caused by a series of retracement level.

On the downside, 50% levels form a support cluster at $1221.00 to $1219.60, followed by a Fibonacci support cluster at $1215.50 to $1213.70.

On the upside, the nearest resistance is a 50% level at $1227.20, followed by a Fibonacci level at $1233.10.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on today’s price action, the direction of the December Comex Gold market into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at $1227.20.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1227.20 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this generates enough upside momentum then look for a possible surge into $1233.10, followed by a minor top at $1234.90, followed by a main top at $1236.70.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1227.20 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to extend into the first support cluster at $1221.00 to $1219.60. This is followed by the main bottom at $1216.80 and the support cluster at $1215.50 to $1213.70.

Crude Oil Price Update – Trade Through $52.56 Changes Main Trend to Up

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil is trading lower but rangebound on Friday. Helping to underpin the market are expectations that OPEC and Russia are close to an agreement to cut production. With the deal expected to be announced at next week’s OPEC meeting in Vienna. Helping to keep a lid on the market are concerns over rising global inventories.

At 1826 GMT, January WTI crude oil is trading $51.28, down $0.17 or -0.33%.

WTI Crude Oil
Daily January WTI Crude Oil

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, Thursday’s closing price reversal bottom may mean momentum is getting close to shifting to the upside. A trade through $49.41 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. Taking out $52.56 will change the main trend to up.

The short-term range is $52.56 to $49.41. Its 50% level or pivot is at $50.99. This price is controlling the direction of the market today.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the current price at $51.28 and the earlier price action, the direction of the January WTI crude oil market into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at $50.99.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $50.99 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for buyers to make a run at $52.56.

Taking out $52.56 will change the main trend to up. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside with a major Fibonacci level at $54.79 the next upside target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $50.99 will signal the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum, we could see a retest of the daily closing price reversal bottom at $49.41. Taking it out will negate the chart pattern and signal a resumption of the downtrend. This could lead to a test of the August 16, 2017 main bottom at $47.96.

Gold Price Prediction – Prices Edge Lower Despite Soft Inflation Figures

Gold prices edged lower back to trend line support despite a softer than expected inflation gauge, which was offset by solid US consumer spending.  The dollar gained traction as riskier assets where mixed as most traders focused on the G20 meeting in Argentina. President Trump and President Xi are scheduled to meeting and discuss trade issues.

Technical Analysis

Gold prices edged lower on Friday, slipping back toward support near the 20-day moving average at 1,219. Additional support is seen near the 50-day moving average at 1,215.  A break through this level would lead to a test of an upward sloping trend line that connects the highs in August to the highs in October that comes in near 1,205. Short-term momentum remains positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. The MACD (moving average convergence divergence) shows momentum is moving average as the index is printing in the red with a slightly declining trajectory which points to consolidation.

Inflation was Low but Spending Moved Higher

Consumer spending increased 0.6% last month according to the Commerce Department. Data for September was revised down to show spending rising 0.2% instead of the previously reported 0.4% gain. Expectations where for consumer spending to rise by 0.4% in October. When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending advanced 0.4%, also the biggest gain in seven months. Data also shows moderation in business spending on equipment, a deterioration in the trade deficit. In October, spending on goods surged 0.5% after gaining 0.1% in September.

Inflation actually edge lower according to a gauge that is preferred by the Fed. The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding the volatile food and energy components edged up 0.1% after increasing 0.2% in September. PCE year over year dropped to 1.8% compared to September’s reading of 1.9% year over year. Last month, personal income increased 0.5%, the largest gain since January, after rising 0.2% in September. Wages rose 0.3% in October.

Silver Weekly Price Forecast – Silver markets fall again this week

Silver of course is sensitive to the greenback which has been strengthening quite rapidly for several months now. Silver seems to be a bit more sensitive than gold, so it’s not a surprise that it has underperformed the yellow metal. If we can break down below the $14 level, I believe that opens a move to the $13 level rather quickly, and then eventually the $12 handle underneath. The $12 level has been very supportive in the past on longer-term charts, so I would expect a serious fight there.

SILVER Video 03.12.18

If we do rally at this point, I think that the $14.50 level is the initial resistance, but the real fight will be closer to the $15 level. If that were to be broken, it would almost have to be simultaneous with the softening US dollar. If we do get that move, it’s likely that silver could go to the $16 level, possibly even the $17 level after that. At this point, I think the downside is probably the much more preferable, and that rallies should be sold off yet again on signs of exhaustion. We been in a downtrend for a while, and I think there’s a good reason for that. Will have to see how things play out in Argentina, because we could get a “risk on rally” in a lot of different assets if things turn out well between the Americans and the Chinese. However, I think that would be a short lived situation, and that it would offer an opportunity

Crude Oil Weekly Price Forecast – crude oil markets continue to slide

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil market has formed a bit of an inverted hammer, or perhaps a shooting star sitting on top of the $50 level. At this point, if we can break above the top of the candle stick that would be a very bullish sign and should send this market towards the $55 level next. Alternately, if we break down below the bottom of the candle stick the market can go much lower, perhaps reaching towards the $45 handle after that. That would be a complete wipeout of the overall uptrend that we had seen, which at this point wouldn’t be much of a surprise. Overall, there are rumblings of Russia perhaps trying to talk other countries into cutting production, which could let the market. Overall though, this does not look good.

WTI Video 03.12.18

Brent

Brent markets rallied initially during the week but struggled to stay above the $60 level to form an inverted hammer. I think that the market could break down to the $55 level, perhaps down to the $50 level after that. Alternately, if we break above the top of that inverted hammer, then we could reach towards the $65 level, perhaps even the $67.50 level. I believe Brent will follow right along with the WTI Crude Oil market, so it’s a binary decision as to whether or not production gets cut. Quite frankly, OPEC needs to do something rather quick with these types of falls in the markets currently.

Natural Gas Weekly Price Forecast – natural gas markets continue to slam around wildly

Natural gas markets rallied significantly during the week, reaching towards the $4.75 level. I believe that as we have struggled a bit to reach towards the $5.00 level, it’s likely that this market is starting to build up pressure to the downside, and it may only be a matter of time before we break down again. That’s the norm though, as we start to approach New Year’s, traders start to look towards the spring time which brings it a much less demand for natural gas. Beyond that, it’s only a matter of time before American suppliers dump a ton of natural gas into the supply chain, as these higher prices make them very profitable.

NATGAS Video 03.12.18

The $4.00 level currently is offering a significant amount of support, so I think that at this point we will probably continue to bounce around between that level in the $5.00 level above. However, I would pay attention to the fact that we have made three lower highs in a row, and that doesn’t course suggests that we are struggling to continue to the upside. The alternate scenario of course is that we finally break out above the $5.00 level, which would be a bit of a blow off top and I would really be concerned about the market getting far ahead of itself at that point. If we break down below the $4.00 level, then I think that the $3.50 level underneath will be the target.

Gold Weekly Price Forecast – Gold continues to look slightly supportive

Gold markets spent most of the week going back and forth with a slightly negative attitude. This is a market that has a nice uptrend line underneath which is part of the up trending channel that should be paid attention to. If we were to break down below the $1200 level, then the market could go lower, perhaps reaching down to the $1000 level, based upon what could be a potential bearish flag. At that point, I think that the “flush” lower could be rather drastic as it would be a major breach of support.

Gold Price Predictions Video 03.12.18

As we grind higher, I think that breaking above the $1250 level could send this market towards the $1400 level above, which has been major resistance in the past. In other words, I think that if we can break in one direction or the other, it will dictate the next $200 in this market. It will move opposite of the US dollar in my estimation, and now that the Federal Reserve seems to have softened a bit, that could give a bit of a bullish case. However, if global growth and fear jumps into the market, we could see gold selloff as people rush towards US dollars. It should also be pointed out that typically this time a year brings up a shortage of US dollars for countries trying to roll over debt, so that does tend to make it a little bit more bullish more often than not.

Silver Price Forecast – Silver markets broke down on Friday to end the week

Silver markets broke down during the trading session on Friday, showing signs of weakness yet again. The $14.50 level is the middle of the overall range right now, and of course the 50 day EMA is just above that level. I think that silver will continue to be very sensitive to the US dollar which of course has been very strong. I believe that trade tensions and a lot of concern about global growth will of course weigh upon silver, and then there is also the fundamental driver of silver which of course is industry. If that slows down, it’s likely that we could very easily slice through the $14 handle.

SILVER Video 03.12.18

If we do that, I think the market probably grinds down to the $13 level, followed by the $12 level after that. Rallies at this point should be sold, as we have seen so much in the way of negativity. The $15 level above is massive resistance, and it’s not until we break above there that I think the Silver markets can go higher, which would show a complete change of the attitude of silver markets. At that point, we could go to the $17 level, but that would take a lot of greenback softness. I presently believe that the Silver markets are in serious trouble, and I think it is only a matter of time before we slice through the $14 level. The $12 level underneath is massive support from a longer-term perspective, even more so than the $14 level has been.

Crude Oil Price Forecast – crude oil markets continue to hang onto support

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil market fell a bit during the trading session on Friday, reaching towards the $50 level, an area that has been massive in its support and importance. I think at this point, if we break down to a fresh, new low it would send this market down to the $45 level. If we rally at this point, I think the $55 level would be rather resistive. In general, I believe that the market participants are waiting to see whether Russia can convince others to cut production based upon rumors that are going around right now. If they do, we could get a little bit bigger move than that. Otherwise, I think rallies are to be faded.

Crude Oil Inventories Video 03.12.18

Brent

Brent also looks very weak but it is hanging onto significant support. That support is right around the $60 region, and at this point I think if we make a fresh, new low then we go looking towards the $55 level. Alternately, if the Russians can talk others into cutting production or there’s some type of comment made about that, it’s likely that oil will go racing towards $65 or so. We are most certainly in a nasty bear market though, so any rally at this point would have to be looked at with suspicion and less serious cuts are agreed to. OPEC is meeting in a couple of weeks it’ll be interesting to see what they have to say but quite frankly at these prices, OPEC is going more than likely to look to cutting.

Natural Gas Price Forecast – natural gas markets struggle on Friday

Natural gas markets have been very explosive as of late, with the $5.00 level above being massive resistance in the $4.00 level underneath being massive support. I think that the market will continue to bang around between those two levels, and as a result I think that the short term trade opportunities will probably be of the range bound variety, but I think the easiest way to go here is to simply short the market every time he gets a little ahead of itself. I don’t think we can break above the $5.00 level, but if we do it would blow this thesis out of the water.

NATGAS Video 03.12.18

As we start to focus on Spring contracts here in a few weeks, that should be the death knell of the rally as we start to look at demand which should of course drop once we get past the coldest months in the United States. Beyond that, I have to believe that suppliers are itching to sell at these exorbitant levels, simply because they haven’t seen these prices and so long. A break down below the $4.00 level will probably have the traders out there looking for $3.75, followed by $3.50 after that.

You could by pullbacks towards the $4.00 level, but I prefer to play this market a little more cautiously, shorting this overbought condition that we find ourselves in on rallies. Keep in mind that natural gas does tend to be very erratic this time of year, so be prepared to deal with volatility.

Gold Price Forecast – Gold markets drift lower on Friday

Gold markets of course have been very choppy over the last several sessions, hugging the $1225 level. We are in an uptrend channel, which of course shows signs of the market trying to pick it up, but I think gold is going to continue to struggle as long as the US dollar is strong. Looking at the longer-term sure, the $1200 level is the bottom of the overall range that we have been in for some time, so I think that there is plenty of reason to think there is support underneath. However, if we break through the uptrend line, I believe that the $1200 level will of course be crucial as well. If we were to break down below that level, then a bearish flag comes into play based upon the weekly chart, which should send this market down to the $1000 level based upon the measurement.

Gold Price Forecast Video 03.12.18

If we break above the $1250 level, then I think the odds increase that we continue to go back and forth between the consolidated area and should send this market back towards $1400. This is a market that has a lot of volatility built into it, and I think of course will pay great attention to the greenback and where goes next. We are at an inflection point for global growth, trade tensions, and the greenback overall, and I suspect that we need to watch these areas mentioned previously as to how to trade for the long term. Short-term traders will probably continue to go back and forth in a relatively tight range.

Technical Outlook For Gold, Silver & US Dollar Index: 30.11.2018

GOLD

With the resistance-line of near-term symmetrical triangle restricting Gold’s repeated upside attempts, the $1217.50 and 100-day SMA level of $1211.00 may come back on the chart; though, formation-support, around $1203 can limit the quote’s additional declines. Should the Bullion drops beneath $1203 on a daily closing basis, the $1200, the $1195 and the $1188 are likely following numbers to flash on sellers’ radar. Alternatively, a daily break above $1230 trend-line mark could escalate the yellow-metal’s recovery to $1238-40 resistance-region, which if broken might please buyers with $1250 round-figure but $1259, including 200-day SMA, seems a tough challenge for them afterwards. Assuming the metal’s rise past-$1259, the $1265 & $1278 may gain market attention.

SILVER

Silver is also witnessing trend-line hurdle to north and is testing the $14.25-20 support-zone, breaking which $14.10-05 and the $13.95 can grab the limelight. Given the white-metal keep trading southwards beneath $13.95, the $13.85 and the $13.60 might become Bears’ favorites. Meanwhile, upside break of $14.40 could propel prices to $14.55-60 resistance-zone. In case Bulls refrain to respect $14.60, the $14.80, the $14.90 and the $15.00 may lure them.

US Dollar Index [I.USDX]

Two-month old ascending trend-channel portrays the US Dollar Index strength to again confront the 97.10 & 97.70 resistances but 61.8% FE level of its recent pullback and upper-line of the said channel, at 98.50 now, could confine the gauge’s further advances. Given the greenback strength fuel the index beyond 98.50, the 99.00 & 100% FE level of 100.00 psychological magnet may appear in demand. On the downside, channel-support of 96.50 and the 96.00 can act as adjacent rests before highlighting the 95.65-60 support-confluence, encompassing 100-day SMA & an upward slanting TL. It should also be noted that a D1 close below 95.60 might not  hesitate fetching the quote to the 95.00, the 94.40 and the 200-day SMA level of 93.90 consecutive supports.

Precious Metals Range Bound Ahead of Xi-Trump Trade Talks Over The Weekend

Gold price saw rage bound action in early Asian market hours today as U.S. President Donald Trump sent mixed signals about the prospects for a trade deal with China. Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are expected to discuss trade on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Argentina on Saturday, where global trade tensions are expected to dominate the agenda. Trump sent mixed signals about the trade deal yesterday saying an agreement was close but he was not sure he wanted one just as he left for Argentina for a meeting with President Xi.  Gold market is expected to closely follow G20 summit headlines as any positive development will be negative for dollar Index which took all the attention from other safe haven assets during times of crisis across the year.

Oil Price Trades Near Yearly Lows Ahead of OPEC Summit

Such a scenario is good for Yellow metal as weak USD will mean more demand for gold & other precious metals in time of demand. However if the trade spat intensifies, the stage will be set for further decline in gold prices as escalating value of US Greenback in broad market makes it difficult for investors from emerging market to invest in gold owing to high exchange rates and also see decrease in demand for China & India two of biggest markets for gold owing to increased exchange rates and increased holding and operating cost of being involved in a non interest yielding asset decreasing the allure of dollar denominated precious metals as safe haven assets. As of writing this article, spot gold XAU/USD is currently trading at $1224.27 an ounce up by 0.02% on the day while US Gold futures GCcv1 are trading at $1229.60 an ounce down by 0.06% on the day.

Meanwhile, spot silver XAG/USD is currently trading at $14.32 an ounce up by 0.04% on the day. Oil prices firmed on Friday on expectations that OPEC and Russia will agree some form of production cuts next week, although swelling U.S. supplies kept markets in check. Despite the firmer prices, crude oil has lost almost a third in value since early October and trades near yearly lows because of an emerging supply glut following a global surge in production, including from the United States, Russia and by the Middle East-dominated Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). OPEC and Russia will gather on Dec. 6 and 7 in Vienna to discuss output policy and headlines indicate that the two parties are moving closer to an agreement around further production cuts ahead of official meet. Spot US Crude Oil WTI/USD is currently trading at $51.31 per barrel up by 0.33% on the day.

Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Bullish Traders Looking for Next Catalyst

Gold futures are trading slightly higher early Friday, but below yesterday’s high. The price action suggests the lack of buyers, or position-squaring in reaction to the Fed minutes which showed policymakers supported a December interest rate hike. A firmer U.S. Dollar is also keeping a lid on gold prices. Traders are also holding prices in a tight range ahead of the start of the G20 meeting in Argentina, which is loaded with uncertainty due to the lingering trade dispute between the United States and China.

At 0521 GMT, February Comex Gold is trading $1230.50, up $0.01 or 0.01%.

Gold continues to be supported by lower Treasury yields. The catalyst behind the move is Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish remarks on Wednesday. Powell said he considers the Fed’s benchmark interest rate to be near a neutral level, an important distinction from remarks he made less than two months ago.

It was also a full day of U.S. economic data on Thursday. The Core PCE Price Index came in lower than expected at 0.1%. Personal Spending, however, jumped 0.6%. The previous month was revised lower to 0.2%. Personal Income also came in higher than expected at 0.5%.

Unemployment Claims fell for a third week, which could be an early sign of a weakening job market. Weekly Jobless Claims rose 234K versus an estimate of 221K. Pending Home Sales plunged 2.6%. Traders were looking for an increase of 0.8%. The previous month was revised higher to 0.7%.

Thursday’s reports will probably not change expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates next month for the fourth time this year.

The Fed minutes pointed toward the strong likelihood of another quarter-point adjustment in the central bank’s benchmark rate target next month. Fed Policymakers indicated that further post-meeting statements might be altered to remove the reference to “further gradual increases” in the target range as long as current conditions persist.

Gold is also being underpinned by geopolitical risk between Russia and Ukraine.

Forecast

February Comex Gold futures are likely to continue to be driven by the movement in the U.S. Treasury yields. With the Fed signaling fewer than three rate hikes next year, gold is catching a bid.

Later today In the U.S., FOMC Member Williams is scheduled to speak and the Chicago PMI will be released. It is expected to show a slight gain to 58.6.

The two-day G20 meeting also begins in Argentina. Traders will be focusing on the trade talks between the United States and China. Going into the meeting, gold investors probably have no expectations that a trade deal will be reached.